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Executive Summary: This report presents findings of a survey of 529 farms in three English regions – the North East, the South West and the West Midlands, which was conducted as part of NICRE’s broader State of Rural Enterprise Reports (NICRE, 2022). It examines the particular experiences of farms in respect of the Covid-19 pandemic, including their business performance, the strategies they adopted in response to the crisis, and their uptake of external advice and government support measures.\ud The survey was conducted between June and August 2021, and covered over 4,000 businesses across the three regions. While the report concentrates on farm businesses, our findings indicate that farms’ experiences of the pandemic differed considerably from the experiences of their non-farm counterparts. To a degree, it is likely that these differences can be related to wider changes particularly affecting agriculture in this period, including policy reform and new trading arrangements linked to the UK’s exit from the EU and its Common Agricultural Policy.\ud Several headlines emerge from our analysis:\ud - Farm performance was sustained during the pandemic\ud - Farms reported different impacts of the Covid-19 crisis than non-farm businesses\ud - Farms were less likely than rural non-farm businesses and urban businesses to use government Covid-19 related business support schemes\ud - Farms were less likely to access external support or advice for their business during the pandemic\ud - Farms were more likely to draw on family resources to reduce their costs during the crisis\ud - Farms were less likely to view the economic uncertainty linked to Covid as a major obstacle to their success\ud - The majority of respondents managing farms do not engage in formal business planning

LEADER promotes integrated rural Community-Led Local Development with key features of bottom-up and multi-sector approaches, local partnerships and place-based design and delivery, funded through the Common Agricultural Policy (Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013), under a common framework (Regulation (EU) No 1303/2013). This study evaluated LEADER across the EU in the 2014-2020 programming period. Methods included: literature review; major surveys of local action group (LAG) managers, and Managing Authorities; indicator analysis; and in-depth case studies of 36 LAGs and 14 Rural Development Programmes across 10 Member States. The study found LEADER was relevant and effective for local rural development, targeting and achieving economic development, strengthening social fabric and capacity and enhancing local governance, with good coherence alongside other policies. Most LAGs promoted social inclusion in a more limited way, and environmental goals via integration within socio-economic projects or awareness-raising. Tackling rural poverty was not a LEADER priority, but positive impacts were identified in a few case studies. Clear relationships and excellent support from Managing Authorities, also sufficient funds for animation, were crucial to LAG performance. Fuller implementation of LEADER key features positively influenced quality and scope of impacts. Strengthened network support at EU and national levels is recommended, also further simplification to ensure future obligations and conditions are proportionate, especially in cases of multi-funded CLLD where CAP (EARDF) and other ESI funds combine.

In the last 20 years Welsh Hill farming has faced many challenges; long-supported specialisation in beef and sheep production systems has been called into question as the policy focus shifted and markets have offered poor returns. Drivers of evolution changed and some near-extinct enterprises have reappeared in the Welsh hills (e.g. dairying, poultry), linked to both market and policy changes. Two in-depth agrarian diagnoses in hill and upland areas of North Wales (Bala and the Vale of Clwyd) show a differentiation of production systems. The apparently homogenous pastoral landscape now sports different levels of management and land use intensity (in fodder output, stocking rates and livestock types). Farms have become increasingly polarised depending on their business opportunities, and these farmed landscapes in Wales are changing rapidly. With the Brexit process and in the context of Covid, changes have intensified as the farming sector seeks to adapt and plan ahead. We assess the likely impact of possible Welsh and UK governments’ future policies in the emerging market context, to understand their likely impact, using a typology of production systems in the two landscapes. On this basis, we expect the trend of polarisation in the Welsh hills to continue, raising some challenges for future policy aspirations.

The UK Brexit vote triggered a new wave of policy development for a future outside the EU. In that context, this paper presents analysis investigating the business performance of English hill and upland farms, characterised by marginal economic conditions but also high nature value (HNV). The analysis aims to help identify farm-level management and policy options for greater economic, environmental and social sustainability. Business performance is measured as technical efficiency and the occurrence and persistence of abnormal profits, estimated through stochastic frontier analysis and static and dynamic panel-data methods. The results help indicate rationales for recent trends including farm enlargement, farm family diversification, and agri-environment scheme entry. The single farm payment was negatively associated with farms technical efficiency but positively associated to short-term farm profitability. Farm adaptation and resilience during a period of likely turbulence in external circumstances is discussed in light of these findings, as well as potential parallels with marginal HNV areas across Europe.

With the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union and increasing pressures from climate change, English arable farming resilience is in a fragile position. Most Brexit impact assessments have focused on quantitative analysis, however here we take a qualitative approach to assess how future trade agreements could impact the resilience of the UK arable farming system. We discuss the main strategies that are currently taken by English arable farmers to improve resilience using evidence from a large‐scale survey in the East of England. Using information from a multi‐stakeholder workshop, we look at arable farming resilience in three forms characteristic of the farming system; namely, robustness, adaptability and transformability and how these relate to and are potentially influenced by three different Brexit trade scenarios. Stakeholders’ recommendations suggest that a ‘hard’ no‐deal scenario will require policies for social protection of farmers in more vulnerable rural areas, while in a ‘softer’ scenario a ‘public money for public goods’ policy could be implemented effectively by learning from previous environmental schemes. Nevertheless, resilience can be enhanced only by addressing structural and policy issues, such as generational renewal, advice and extension, tenancy duration limits and smarter PPP regulations, regardless of what post‐Brexit deal with the EU finally emerges.

This study is an evaluation of the Common Agricultural Policy’s (CAP) impact on\ud balanced territorial development (BTD) of rural areas across EU-28: socio-economic\ud aspects. The main focus of the study is on territorial development of rural areas, which\ud are investigated through the analysis of socio-economic aspects and social inclusion.\ud The evaluation work starts with a causal analysis which intended to scope and select\ud the CAP measures and instruments considered to have a direct impact on the general\ud objective of BTD in rural areas. The work is then articulated around five evaluation\ud criteria: effectiveness, efficiency, coherence, relevance, European added value.\ud Several methods have been applied to gather and analyse both quantitative and\ud qualitative information. Sixteen evaluation study questions have been answered by\ud using quantitative methods such as input-output analysis, clustering, and statistical\ud regressions, as well as qualitative methods, including case studies, literature review\ud and the observation of development trends over the programming period.\ud According to the evaluation study findings, the issues and needs faced by rural regions\ud in the EU-28 are significant. The evaluation’s quantitative and case study findings\ud indicate that the impact of the CAP in supporting BTD through the improvement of\ud socioeconomic aspects and social inclusion varies according to the characteristics of\ud the rural region and the policy mix applied. Pillar I instruments, in particular direct\ud payments, have been found to positively impact regional employment and reinvestment. Pillar II measures, some of which are specifically designed to address\ud socio-economic issues, demonstrate also positive effects.

Since 1990 South-Pembrokeshire has seen rapid changes to its once homogenous landscape dominated by dairy farms. An analysis of this differentiation was made using a system-based French method: an ‘agrarian diagnosis’ in which the current situation is perceived as being the result of both the constraints and qualities of the geographic context in which agriculture is situated, and of a history that has shaped its production methods and social structure. 92 semi-structured farm interviews were carried out in a discrete South Pembrokeshire area, formed of 3 different landscape units with a wide diversity of farm types, and combined with literature, documentary and secondary data analysis. From 1990, the relatively similar dairy farms across Pembrokeshire differentiated under sustained income pressure, linked to an output/input price squeeze and a challenging environment for business expansion. Those farms who stayed in dairying used different strategies to expand, at different times. A ruthless selection process took place, as many farms were pushed out of milk into beef and sheep. This was the first step in a trend towards renting out the land and retiring from farming altogether. The reduced pressure on land use in some farms allowed Potato farming to re-emerge in the landscape, among specialized farms and in just one landscape type. Gradually, a complex, interdependent ecosystem of farms has developed, with businesses exchanging outputs and inputs. The detailed modelling of current farming systems using functional ‘archetypes’, examining economic performance and agricultural income, allows us to understand the economic structure of land use. From this we can forecast a likely second turning point in farm evolution arising from the new support policy and emerging post-Brexit and post-Covid economic environment.

Strengthening the socio-economic fabric of rural areas is a key CAP objective,\ud including generational renewal (GR). This evaluation assessed how the current CAP\ud affects GR in rural Europe, also local development and jobs. It examined Young\ud Farmer (YF) and other CAP measures aiming to attract young people to farm, live and\ud work in rural areas. Methods included literature review, EU survey, interviews and\ud workshops, data analysis using correlation, multicriteria, comparative econometric and\ud CGE modelling, and case studies in seven contrasting Member States (MS). It\ud concluded CAP GR measures have a positive impact on YF numbers, business\ud performance and local employment, varying from very minor to significant according\ud to local context. For Pillar 2 aids, impacts and causes are clear, but it is too early to\ud judge Pillar 1 YF supplements. Aids are most effective and efficient delivered in mixedmeasure packages combining planning, investment, collaboration and advice, and\ud conditional on beneficiary training. Impact is enhanced where institutional and fiscal\ud policies ease access to land and capital. In very marginal areas, aid for rural\ud diversification and services is also vital. The study recommended a more holistic,\ud flexible and strategic approach to GR in the future CAP, also increased MS emphasis\ud upon new entrants, innovation and rural quality of life provision.

This study outlines the current trends and patterns of farming\ud employment in the EU and discusses possible development\ud paths for the European agricultural labour force.\ud In particular, this study investigates the drivers of and structural\ud changes within agricultural labour markets at regional, national\ud and EU level, building on a range of quantitative and qualitative\ud analysis methods.

The changing climate of Wales is likely to have significant direct (e.g. changing land cover) and indirect (e.g. by influencing land use decisions) impacts on landscape character, quality and local distinctiveness. Flooding and drought events, more frequent extreme weather, coastal erosion, wildfires, diseases affecting tree cover and changing land cover, habitats and species ranges are examples of how the landscape may change to a greater or lesser degree, in the short or long term.\ud \ud Landscape character can provide an important communication tool to raise awareness and understanding of the risks and opportunities of climate change because people relate to landscapes as places to live, work and enjoy. It is therefore opportune to bring together information on the impacts from a changing climate and apply them to a landscape perspective.\ud \ud This project is the first step in starting to identify and communicate the direct and indirect impacts of projected climate changes for Wales in 2050 on landscape character and qualities and what that might look like in the landscape we recognise today. This project identifies the impacts of climate change on broad landscape types using the LANDMAP Visual & Sensory spatial dataset. It provides maps that identify the spatial distribution of the broad landscape types supported by key statistics, and offers a series of written narratives of potential change for each landscape type.

New institutional economics, and transaction effects in particular, are highly relevant to public policy performance. The evolution of EU rural development policy has generated both increasing complexity and increased transaction costs. However, this policy evolution also creates opportunities for improvement of policy process management. The paper considers these opportunities in the case of Rural Development Programmes (RDPs) under Pillar 2 of the CAP. We examine the influence of transaction effects on RDP performance, based on direct experience of RDP review and planning in England and Malta, where qualitative evidence of ‘transaction benefits’ is identified. Benefits occur when exchange processes are designed in ways that generate positive returns beyond the immediate transaction, which can outweigh short-term costs. We conclude that more attention to these aspects of policy design is warranted in future rural development programming and evaluation.

The PEGASUS project aimed to identify how to promote enhanced delivery of environmental and social benefits from farming and forestry, across the EU. After three years of investigation and analysis it has distilled a number of lessons for both policy and practice. Policy recommendations are focused upon national and European policy makers and in particular, consider ways to improve the environmental and social outcomes of the new CAP, beyond 2020. These are the subject of another deliverable from the project (D5.4). This deliverable, D5.3, provides a compendium of lessons for practitioners who are interested in seeking to enhance multiple benefits from farming and forestry, within a territory or along a supply chain. Learning from 34 case study examples around Europe (for a full list, see Table 4 in D5.1), and from validation of the case study findings with multiple stakeholders in national and EU-wide seminars and workshops, this report draws together a set of common principles and supporting methods to help local actors. It summarises the wide range of lessons from the project concerning transferable methods for the successful delivery of ‘Public and Ecosystem Goods And Services from farming and forestry; Unlocking Synergies’. It aims to provide a relatively comprehensive analysis of good practice for successful initiatives. Because it is derived from a very broad range of situations and contrasting types of experience, these lessons should be transferable to a wide variety of contexts in Europe.

This report is a think-piece to inform ongoing policy development by the Welsh Government working in partnership with stakeholder groups. It synthesises evidence on the state of agriculture and rural areas in Wales with the available understanding of stages, timing and potential outcomes of the Brexit process, identifying implications and potential priorities.\ud \ud Our scenario analysis suggests that the most likely changes in trading conditions would tend to disadvantage the competitive position of Welsh agriculture vis-à-vis its main current markets and trading competitors (particularly in sheep and beef). Further, we may anticipate generally reduced levels and scope of public funding by comparison with those the sector has enjoyed in recent years. However, within these challenging probable change scenarios, there are opportunities if farm businesses are enabled to respond adaptively.\ud \ud Some farms and sectors face much greater challenges than others, which implies uneven structural change across significant areas:\ud - a decline in the economic viability of sheep production is likely, with these farm businesses especially vulnerable to changes in both market access arrangements and public funding support – this could increase pressure on rural services;\ud - accordingly, north and west Wales are likely to face stronger negative impacts than the south and east, where more potentially positive and diverse impacts can be expected among dairy, horticultural, mixed and other farm types.\ud \ud How key food and forestry processors and retailers respond to the Brexit process, and their willingness to invest in Wales and Welsh products, will be an important factor. Their patterns of operation may change in response to shifting economic and market conditions.\ud \ud Managing the challenges faced is key, to prevent undesirable impacts on natural capital, landscape quality and community identity. Three policy directions are recommended:\ud - Fostering resilience in farm and other land management businesses; supporting successful adaptation, enhanced efficiency, diversification, adding value and inter-generational transfer, as well as some moves from farming into other sectors;\ud - Investing in longer-term partnerships between government, food retailers, rural service providers, and commercial lenders to promote stronger business networks and SME infrastructure across Wales;\ud - Designing a future funding framework to support natural resource management and rural vitality in Wales.

This book presents an overview of CCRI's research activities during 2017.

The ENARPRI partners agreed in February 2004 to prepare a precise specification for the scenarios that partners would attempt to model in their own national contexts, to examine the impacts of trade-related changes upon the multifunctionality of EU agriculture. This paper outlines a suite of five scenarios covering anticipated domestic (EU) policy under different possible outcomes from the Doha round, broadly based upon the status quo (with mid-term review), full decoupling of domestic support and full decoupling plus reductions in (decoupled) domestic support, with variants in relation to export subsidies and the scale of pillar 2 measures. In all cases it is recognised that national or sub-national models will require an additional level of national or regional specification before they can be run, and that each national team will be required to do this drawing upon their own domestic knowledge and discussion with relevant experts. Each of the models that will be used to undertake these analyses is then briefly reviewed to identify its general approach and the multifunctionality indicators that can be covered. These indicators are then set in the broader context that considers other potential indicators of multifunctionality and their rationales. The paper concludes with some additional commentary about the significant differences, and thus the difficulties, of attempting to undertake this exercise for any of the new member states.

The broad aim of this research is to provide a study on the impact and added value to farmers when adopting LEAF Marque. It is based on thirty-seven interviews with LEAF Marque certified businesses, interviewed between December 2016 and February 2017. Twenty-five of these interviewees took part as anonymous contributors, while twelve have also prepared case studies. The evidence in the report is in three sections, an overview analysis based on the questionnaire, an analysis of the narratives regarding the benefits of participation and a collection of case studies. More specifically the report focuses on identifying the financial, environmental and social benefits that can be attributed to LEAF Marque, and Integrated Farm Management (IFM) farm practices.

Assessing the ‘new’ CAP after 2013 reveals some positive developments encouraging MAs (Managing Authorities) to recognise the particular characteristics of small and SSFs, in designing and implementing appropriate policy options. Because Pillar I aid is unavoidably linked to scale and many small farms cannot or do not claim it, the financial impact of Pillar I on small and SSFs will remain modest. Nevertheless, more options exist for increasing this impact through explicit or implicit tailoring, where Member States so choose. The Small Farmers Scheme, in particular, offers benefits by reducing transaction costs. For Pillar II, the new framework offers more scope for funding tailored to the specific needs of small and SSF farms, but there is no guarantee that this will translate into more cost-effective Rural Development Programmes, and there is concern that such developments may be disincentivised by other aspects of the approach. Stronger guidance from the European Commission, as well as support from the European Network for Rural Development, could help Managing Authorities to consider the needs of these farms more fully in Rural Development Programme design. In sum, the ‘new’ CAP offers greater potential to support and enhance the value of Europe's small and SSFs than its predecessor. Ultimately, much depends upon choices made at national or regional levels, given the considerable range of options now available.