Search

Yersinochloa nghianasp. nov. from Vietnam is described and illustrated. It is found from southern Vietnam, where it occurs at an elevation of 1130 m in Braian Mountain, Di Linh District, Lam Dong Province. This new species is distinguished from a similar species, Yersinochloa dalatensis, by culm nodes with a thick swollen patella, culm leaf blades erect, auricles conspicuous, margins bearing long hairs, palea dorsal view showing rachilla extension and rudimentary floret at the apex and lodicules bifid at the base.

Changes in living environments due to natural hazards are important indicators that affect livelihood and sustainable development, particularly for those farmers residing in poor and remote regions. The uptake of adaptive measures by these farmers is generally partial or incomplete. Thus, there is a real need to understand better the set of drivers that shapes farmers’ decisions of adaptation practices, which help to minimize risks and overcome hazards so that sustainable regional development can be facilitated and maintained. We extend the theoretical framework by adding a psychological driver to the traditional Capital Approach Framework (CAF) to examine the nexus between farmers’ perceptions, their adaptive assets (human, physical, financial, social, and natural capitals), and their adaptation strategies. In this study, we use survey data of 916 small-scale Vietnamese farmers to examine the research question by employing a multivariate probit model. Our results suggest that heightened perception increases the propensity of respondents to diversify their income sources away from agricultural activities and engage in better investment management. Government assistance in the form of extension training and microcredit programs demotivates farmers from adaptations, therefore redesignation of these schemes or collaboration with the private sector is necessary. Information obtained from local officers would encourage farmers to widely adapt their livelihood strategies to climate change, we thus suggest that the farmers should utilize this information as much as they can. Along with our finding of the significant impact of farm size on farmers’ adaptations adoptions, the “land accumulation” program directly benefits small-scale farmers so that they are motivated to either expand productions or transfer land ownership by participating in the land market. The application of this program may help other countries to avoid land fragmentation and abandonment to ensure farmers’ livelihood under climate change.

Mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change is an ongoing concern for developing countries like Vietnam. Hence, Vietnam ratified the Paris agreement without delay in October 2016. As a part of its climate policy strategy, the government is proposing to increase the taxes either on coal by 50% or petroleum products by 33.33%. This study employs the GTAP-E-Power model with additional improvements to include non-CO2 emissions to examine the impacts of such a policy on the Vietnamese economy. Results show that the trade-offs of the increased tax on petroleum products (Scenario 1) are much higher than the increased tax on coal (Scenario 2). For example, real GDP in Vietnam declines by 2.23% and 1.05% in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively. In addition, the country’s emissions level reduces by 10.23% in Scenario 2 compared to a reduction of 7.62% in Scenario 1. A higher tax on coal would foster the extension of renewable energy sectors faster than the impacts resulted from increasing tax on petroleum products. The increased demands by the private sector for electricity generated from renewable sources signals a potential for a sustainable development of the renewable electricity generation sectors in Vietnam.

This paper examines the economy-wide impacts of wild catch fishery decline due to climate change on major wild catch producing countries in Southeast Asia and South America, particularly focusing on food industries. A global economic model has been extended to separate the choice between wild catch and aquaculture in the production and consumption functions. The fish commodity/sector is also disaggregated in the database into wild catch and aquaculture commodities/sectors in order to make it compatible with the modified model. Results show that the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Ecuador and Peru experience considerable impacts on their economies, food industries, and households. Vietnam experiences the lowest impact on their economy because of low impact on their ocean fish resource. Results also indicate that expansions in aquaculture outputs are not adequate to compensate losses in wild catch production in all countries, and there will be a scarcity of fish in the international market that will be harmful to international trade of wild catch and aquaculture, as well as global food security. Households will also be substantially vulnerable due to high prices of fish and lower income levels resulting from contractions of production levels.

Following the international commitment to tackle climate change issues, many countries have introduced climate change policies to reduce emission levels. Australia also expects to follow the international pathways to implement a climate change policy to curb its greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, the former Labor Government in Australia intended to switch its carbon tax policy to an emissions trading scheme (ETS) after 2 years of its initial operation to achieve an emission target of 5 per cent below the 2000 level by 2020. By employing a computable general equilibrium model and a social accounting matrix database, this article analyses the potential impacts of an ETS with various revenue recycling options on Australian households. Results show that an emission permit price of A$20 per tonne of CO2-e would help Australia to achieve the 2020 emission reduction target. This permit price is likely to have a small contraction in Australia’s real GDP (i.e. about 0.3 per cent) and in real household consumption (i.e. about 0.19 per cent). The price of electricity is projected to increase by 13 per cent. The revenue recycling options seem to create an improvement in the macro-economy and there is a trade-off between economic efficiency and equity in the Australian economy with compensations. The personal income tax reduction policy results in an economic efficiency with a positive change in real aggregate household consumption whereas providing an equal lump-sum transfer brings benefits equally for all household groups. Increased government transfers based on recipients’ current pension and allowance rates generate more welfare gains for middle-income household groups.

We demonstrate the use of a surrogate-based optimization framework for large-scale and high-resolution landscape management optimization, using irrigated corn production systems in eastern Colorado, USA as a case study. An artificial neural network was employed to create a surrogate of the DayCent biogeochemical simulation model. Our optimization considered trade-offs among seven different objectives at different scales, including farm profits, irrigation water use, corn grain, corn stover, soil organic carbon (SOC), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and nitrogen leaching. The results show that the surrogate captured greater than 99% of the variations in the DayCent’s simulated outputs and was 6.2 million times faster than the DayCent model for our analysis. Farm-level optimization increased farm profits by 83%–150%, SOC by 16%–53%, grain yield by 10.1–11.3%, and reduced GHG emissions by 19%–55% compared to the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario.

Several climate change policies, such as emissions trading schemes and carbon taxes, have been implemented in many countries and regions around the world. However, the current Coalition Government in Australia does not prefer such methods and has argued that these policies would substantially increase the electricity price, and weaken the Australian competitiveness and the whole economy. Subsequently, the Government replaced the carbon tax policy in July 2014 with its Emissions Reduction Fund, which fundamentally uses the government budget of A$2.55 billion to buy emission abatements from polluters. There are major arguments among the Australian public about the efficiency and the effects of this approach, but the economic effects are still unidentified. This study aims to examine the economy-wide effects of this policy on the Australian economy by employing a national environmental and economic general equilibrium model so that Australians and international audience would be aware of the impacts and how the reverse auction and carbon subsidy work as a policy to reduce emissions at large scales across all sectors in a country. Results show that Australia only experiences relatively small impact on its economy. Real GDP only declines by 0.3%–0.4% over all scenarios. Industrial and private sectors also experience relatively small unfavourable impacts, but the output and export level of the agricultural commodity will decline substantially. The renewable sectors are expanded to compensate output reductions in fossil fuel electricity generation sectors, though the expansion is insufficient to compensate for the losses.

Global ballast water management regulations aiming to decrease aquatic species invasion require actions that can increase shipping costs. We employ an integrated shipping cost and global economic modeling approach to investigate the impacts of ballast water regulations on bilateral trade, national economies, and shipping patterns. Given the potential need for more stringent regulation at regional hotspots of species invasions, this work considers two ballast water treatment policy scenarios: implementation of current international regulations, and a possible stricter regional regulation that targets ships traveling to and from the United States while other vessels continue to face current standards. We find that ballast water management compliance costs under both scenarios lead to modest negative impacts on international trade and national economies overall. However, stricter regulations applied to U.S. ports are expected to have large negative impacts on bilateral trade of several specific commodities for a few countries. Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products, leading to minor economic welfare losses.

Understanding perceptions of indigenous people toward natural disasters is essential in social and environmental research to facilitate further studies in investigating the impacts of the events, as well as in examining the adaptive strategies and having implications for policymakers and relevant institutional bodies. We took this essential feature to study the perceptions of local people toward the two common natural disasters: flash floods and landslides. We selected the case study in three communes (An Binh, An Thinh, and Dai Son) in Van Yen district, Yen Bai province in Vietnam. This is because flash floods and landslides are two frequent natural disasters that highly adversely affect these areas where major poor ethnic minority communities reside. We conducted six Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and household surveys (405 households) in 2016. The results showed that a decline in productivity, a decrease in income, more hard-working conditions, and an increase in daily expenses were the most observed impacts of these natural disasters in the communes. The analysis also revealed that almost 45% of farmers perceived an increasing trend in the frequency and impacts of flash floods and landslides over the past 15 years. A Multinomial Logit (MNL) model was used to analyze the determinants of farmers' awareness of flash floods and landslides, which indicated that farmers' perceptions of flash floods and landslides are associated with socio-economic characteristics, such as gender, agricultural experience, ethnic groups, climate information, and household income conditions. We suggested that local governments should pay more attention to strengthen farmers' awareness to help improve perceptions of local people toward common natural disasters so that they would gain better adaptive capacities and become more sustainable, which are in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Genetic diversity and variation of four naturally distributed Huperzia serrata populations in Vietnam were analyzed based on the DNA fingerprint data obtained by ISSR and SCoT techniques separately and combined together. Both of ISSR and SCoT markers showed that the genetic diversity in Vietnam was relatively high at population and species level, except for the Hoang Lien population. The genetic diversity parameters of the Hoang Lien population were Nei’s gene diversity index (He) = 0.1436, Shannon index (I) = 0.2161, percentage of polymorphic bands (PPB) = 45.45%; of the Bach Ma population, He = 0.21, I = 0.33, PPB = 71.97%; of the Ngoc Linh population, He = 0.20, I = 0.31, PPB = 74.24%; of the Bidoup population, He = 0.19, I = 0.30, PPB = 74.24%; and at species level in Vietnam, He = 0.23, I = 0.36, PPB = 100%. The genetic differentiation was high with a value of GST = 0.19 and the number of migrants was estimated through gene flow as Nm = 2.16 individuals per generation among populations. The results of analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicated that 28 and 72% of the total variation were among and within populations, respectively. The genetic diversity and genetic variation parameters of the investigated populations depended on the type of techniques used for DNA fingerprinting and also on the nature of each population. However, there was a high correlation and general trends among the obtained data sets when using ISSR, SCoT and the combination of these techniques.

This paper estimates the impacts of future Arctic shipping on the risk of terrestrial and aquatic nonindigenous species (NIS) spread to the U.S. east coast from various Asian countries. We consider two components of risk – introduction and establishment. Risk of introduction is based on economic modeling predictions of changes in trade flows from future opening of Arctic shipping. Risk of establishment given successful introduction is based on climate similarities determined by an environmental model. We estimate total NIS spread risk as the product of introduction and establishment risks. Results highlight risk profiles for key U.S. trade partners in Asia and show that NIS spread risk to the U.S. east coast is highest from China and Japan. Shipments from Hong Kong and the Philippines present nominal increased species spread risk to the U.S. given low levels of terrestrial and marine climate similarity and minor expected trade changes between the two regions.

The Vietnamese Government is proposing a new tax levy on either petroleum products or coal, or both. That is, the Government expects to increase the current tax rates to the maximum levels set previously. In this instance, the tax on coal is intended to increase by 50%, while the tax on petroleum products is intended to increase by 33.33%. This study employs a computable general equilibrium model to assess the effects of these increases in taxes on the Vietnamese economy, focusing on energy, transportation, and the private sectors. Results show that an increase in tax on petroleum products will considerably affect the country with a reduction of real GDP by 1.99%. Exports and imports are also highly unfavorably affected. In this instance, the total emission level will be reduced by 7.12%. The increased tax on coal, however, will allow Vietnam to experience much lower unfavorable effects, while being able to cut a substantial amount of the emission level. For example, real GDP would only decline by 0.51%, while total emission level will be reduced by 10.25%. If these taxes are increased together, Vietnam will experience considerable contractions in the economy, but it is able to reduce a substantial emission level.

This paper assesses the potential effects on the U.S. economy if the U.S. retreats from its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions agreed under the Paris Agreement. We assume prior to withdrawal that the U.S. and other nations or regions would introduce climate change policies, such as emissions trading schemes, to meet their emission targets which were agreed in Paris. When the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement, it will not adopt such a policy. We use a modified version of the GTAP-E model to examine the effects on the U.S. economy of its anti-mitigation action in a counterfactual framework. The findings suggest that a retreat from the Paris Agreement would increase the real GDP and real private consumption by 1.13% and 0.78%, respectively, in the U.S. Given such improvements at the macro level, the effects on the U.S. energy sectors from the withdrawal are substantial. Prices of energy would reduce considerably, particularly for coal, natural gas, and consequently the price of electricity (−17.8%). These three energy sectors would also experience considerable expansions when the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement compared to its position if it honored its previously pledged committed targets.

This paper examines the potential effects of the expansion of crude oil and natural gas extraction in Arctic Alaska on the U.S. economy, focusing on key energy sectors. Expanded extraction activities are expected to boost the U.S. economy at relatively small rates because the oil and natural gas extraction industries comprise a small share of GDP compared to other U.S. industries. However, this expansion may have substantial implications on energy sectors, with considerable growth expected in the oil and petroleum products manufacturing industry. The U.S. trade balance for energy resources may be improved through increased exports of crude oil (108%), natural gas (26%), and petroleum products (10%). Such increased exports of energy from the U.S. are important supplies to the international energy market given the substantial role of the U.S. in global energy trade. In the domestic market, U.S. households enjoy lower prices of fossil fuels and electricity as a result of expanded extraction.

This paper examines the impacts of the Emissions Reduction Fund on the Australian economy. The GTAP-E model has been extended to allocate the subsidy directly to each eligible sector. The simulation of the subsidy policy has been supplemented by introducing an improvement of energy efficiency to non-agricultural sectors and of resource efficiency by using endowment factors in the agricultural sector. Results indicate that, with the current budget of A$2.55 billion, or US$1.86 billion (Scenario 1), Australia can only achieve the minimum cumulative emissions reduction target of 225 MtCO 2 -e during 2015–20. Australia needs a budget of US$2.08 billion (Scenario 2) to achieve the maximum cumulative emissions reduction target of 279 MtCO 2 -e. In both scenarios, the agricultural sector receives the highest payment from the Australian Federal Government under the subsidy programme, followed by the electricity generation sector. Under the scheme, Australia experiences only a mild contraction in the economy, with a reduction of real GDP by 0.37% and 0.55% in the two scenarios, respectively.

This article employs a global computable general equilibrium economic model (GTAP-E-PowerS) to examine the impact on the world economy if households in every country self-supply power to meet 30–100% of residential demand, with subsequent monetary savings diverted to consuming more food. Results show the power generation sector reduces output levels by 14%–42% across various countries if households 100% self-supply. Coal mining sectors are adversely affected in numerous countries with contractions of 9%–28% ($6,086-$18,935 million) in the United States and 4%–13% ($2,505–$8,143 million) in Australia. Improved outcomes for the world environment are found with reductions of CO2e emission levels of 2.24%–7.38% (or 924–3,042 MtCO2 equivalent). The agriculture and food-processing sectors expand significantly in many countries but also cause major increases in land prices, particularly in land-scarce countries in Middle East, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan. Results also show the security of food and energy supply are improved along with environmental gains from lower emission levels. However, the energy sector is adversely affected and those countries with a heavy reliance on fossil fuel extraction and mining activities experience significant reductions in real GDP.

Both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions are liable in climate change policies in many countries around the world. However, there are still many impact assessment studies in different regions that consider only CO2 emissions. We hypothesise that excluding non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, which are also liable in climate change policies, may lead to misleading results and impacts. We employ a global climate change policy model (GTAP-E-PowerS) to examine how the impact of a uniform carbon tax at US$15 applying to the world regions are different when only CO2 emissions are liable compared to the case that non-CO2 emissions are additionally subject to the tax. That is, the impacts of the carbon tax applying to CO2 emissions only (against no carbon tax) will be compared to the impacts of such a tax applying to both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions (against no carbon tax). Results show the deviations in the impacts between with and without inclusion of non-CO2 emissions are more obvious in developing countries particularly by comparison to developed nations. Iran, for instance, experiences a higher reduction in real GDP of 1.52 percentage points when non-CO2 emissions are overlooked. These impact deviations also rise with increased costs to economies (e.g., more sectors involved or higher tax rates). We find developing countries experience higher contraction rates in their economies than developed nations. Iran, Kazakhstan, South Africa, China, India, Russia, Mexico, and Indonesia all experience 2–5.1% reductions in real GDP relative to business-as-usual (no carbon tax), while such reductions are below 0.8% in Australia, the United States and other developed nations because emission costs compared to economy size are relatively high in developing nations. Major polluting countries like China, the United States, India, and Russia were also found to have low marginal abatement costs compared to other nations due to high emission levels and input substitution possibilities. To provide more accurate and insightful impacts of climate change policies, we recommend future studies include both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions in models.

A new species of Rubiaceae from South Central Vietnam is described and illustrated. The new species, Mussaenda reflexisepala, is similar to M. caudatiloba in young plant parts densely white villose, but different in calyx lobes recurved, obviously reflexed, corolla lobes yelllow to orange or reddish orange, ovate to broadly obovate, which are clearly distinguished from other known species of Mussaenda. The pollen morphology of Mussaenda reflexisepala is also reported.

Using the MONASH-Green model and a database containing detailed energy sectors, this paper evaluates the effects of a proposed emissions trading scheme on the Australian economy and the emissions levels. The simulation results indicate that the price of carbon permits has to increase from A$4.1 per tonne in 2015 through A$13.1 per tonne in 2020 to A$41.3 per tonne in 2030 to achieve a target of 28% below the 2005 level in 2030. The main buyers of permits would be the agricultural sector, black-coal electricity sector and brown-coal electricity sector. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, Australia's GDP is projected to be 0.85% lower in 2020 and 1.6% lower in 2030. Household welfare, measured in terms of equivalent variations, will increase due to compensations provided by the government. The results also lend strong support towards the transition to renewable energy. The stylised model was adapted to inform the results of the full model.

The paper uses the GTAP-E model to examine whether the A$2.55 billion budget of the Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) is adequate to buy the required abatement with respect to Australia’s 2020 target. The ERF is examined according to the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curve theory, with a carbon tax simulated in advance, and the equivalent subsidy outlay is calculated. We also examine whether the operations of some domestic Emissions Trading Schemes (ETSs) in other economies would affect Australia’s emissions levels and MAC curves. The results indicate that the ERF budget can only help Australia to buy 85% of the required abatements, subject to its 2020 target, and that the implementations of ETSs in the other economies would not greatly affect either the emissions levels or the MAC curves in Australia.

Countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020 following the Paris Agreement. We consider these targets by using the climate change policy version of the GTAP-E model of the world economy to analyse economic and environmental outcomes in the transition from domestic settings to broad international linkages for selected major emitting regions. We have obtained several insights. First, developing nations present relatively low emission abatement costs compared to developed countries. China and India are also major emitters with substantial possibilities to create carbon credits for selling to other regions. Second, any forms of international carbon markets are confirmed to have lower costs for a linked global system than domestic-solely schemes. Third, the participation of China and India in an international carbon market particularly drives down the carbon price (to US$1.62 per tonne of CO2-e) and economic costs of the system. Real GDP of countries in such a linkage will only decline by 0.1%, while the electricity sector in most countries only experiences 1% loss in their output levels. The US, European Union and Australia particularly benefit from the participation of China and India in the carbon linkage by significantly lowering costs on their economies. Finally, it is also found that not all international emission linkages benefit low abatement cost countries if they do not have suitable strategies to recycle their net carbon trading revenues.

Modern taxonomic revision of Bulbophyllum sect Hirtula in the flora of eastern Indochina, including Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam based on all available collections and literature data reports 12 species (Bulbophyllum clipeibulbum, B. dasystachys, B. glabrichelia, B. nigrescens, B. nigripetalum, B. parviflorum, B. penicillium, B. phitamii, B. scaphiforme, B. secundum, B. setilabium, B. spadiciflorum), 2 of which represent new records for the studied flora (B. parviflorum, B. penicillium) and 3 (Bulbophyllum glabrichelia, B. phitamii, B. setilabium) are described as a new for science. For all accepted taxa the paper provides valid name and main synonyms with appropriate standard taxonomic references, data on type and other authentic materials, description, data on ecology, phenology, expected conservation status, distribution, notes on biology and taxonomy, list of all studied materials, as well as key for identification of species and their line and color illustrations.

This paper summarizes results of joint efforts of professional botanists and orchid enthusiasts on studies of Vietnamese native orchids during years 2013–2016. It provides new original data about the discovery of 1 genus (Grammatophyllum Blume) and 29 orchid species new for the flora of Vietnam. Valid name, main synonyms, data on type, ecology, phenology, estimated IUCN Red List status, distribution, studied specimens, as well as brief taxonomic and biological notes are provided for each species and varieties. Eight species (Bidupia khangii, Bulbophyllum striatulum, B. tipula, Cleisostoma dorsisacculatum, Cymbidium repens, Dendrobium congianum, Flickingeria xanthocheila, Podochilus rotundipetala) and two varieties (Phreatia densiflora var. vietnamensis, P. formosana var. continentalis) are described as new for science. One combination (Bulbophyllum bicolor var. funingense) is proposed. An illustrated annotated list of all studied species and varieties is arranged in alphabetical order. Including present data, the known orchid flora of Vietnam comprises currently at least 1210 documented species from 172 genera.

Vietnam is a young and fast-growing economy in Southeast Asia that has put effort into internationally tackling climate change issues. By well understanding the energy resources, markets, policies, and scientific studies will help the country move faster towards a cleaner and more sustainable economy. This review indicates that Vietnam has abundant natural resources to develop renewable power; however, the country's economy is still small, lacking financial capacity, advanced technologies and human resources for rapid development of renewable energy. Institutional barriers, such as market-controlled mechanisms and unstable supporting policies, also limit investment in renewable power sectors. Transmission and distribution networks are currently not compatible with power plant construction, leading to high risks for investors. Due to financial and technological constraints, Vietnam still needs to strongly develop fuel-fired power along with renewable energy. As a result, although the energy policies and plans are set towards cleaner production, progress will be slow. Vietnam may need strong support from international organizations and governments to develop better financial capacity, as well as quality human resources and advanced technology in order to transition to a low-carbon economy more rapidly. A better and stronger energy efficiency policy should also be facilitated so that power targets can be achieved at lower costs for the country to release much lower emission levels. Research-based findings also need to be strengthened to support policy-decision making.

Biochemicals constitute a key sector in the bioeconomy, but their future expansion depends on biomass availability. This study employs an integrated global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach to quantify the impacts on land-use change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and socioeconomic indicators, when reducing biomass conversion costs for global biochemical production by 1.5% annually until 2050. Global demand for crop- and forest-based feedstock by the chemical industry increases sharply in 2050, e.g. by 327% for wheat; driving up agro-food prices, e.g. by 3.5% for oilseeds and 3.9% for sugarcane in Brazil. Chemical output decreases in countries that rely on imported biomass for biochemical production, such as Germany, France or the United States; while it increases, for instance, in Brazil and Australia, which draw mainly on domestic feedstock. Increased biomass demand entails significant natural forest cover loss across South America and Asia, and, to a lesser extent, in North America. Associated GHG from global carbon stock losses outweigh those from fossil fuel savings, increasing GHG emissions globally by 107 Mt in 2050, relative to the baseline. Results suggest that R&D investments in bio-based sectors should be complemented with coherent policies to prevent deforestation and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals.

Energy security has been a major concern in developing countries because of rapid economic development and population growth, low power generation capacity, and unwell-developed transmission infrastructure. Vietnam in this context has been under energy security threats for more than a decade and is currently having a new power policy to strongly develop power generation and distribution networks. It is expected that the country's economy is able to develop substantially due to massively additional energy supply once completing the plants and distribution networks but the likely impacts are still undefined. This paper extends an economic electricity-detailed model to examine the potential impacts of such a new power policy in Vietnam. We find that the policy will decrease the prices of both fossil-based and renewable-based electricity significantly by 40%–78% under a 2030 target scenario, benefiting all sectors in the economy to substitute for fossil fuels. Households are particularly benefited as evidenced by 5.64%–19.19% increases in per-capita utility. Overall, the Vietnamese economy is significantly advantaged with real GDP increasing by 5.44%–24.83% over different scenarios, which are much higher than the findings in other countries. More importantly, the policy moves the country to a low-carbon energy structure in the near future.

As a result of statistical contingencies, research frequently employs aged databases to examine the impacts of energy and climate change policies in contemporary situations, or in forward timeframes out to 2050 or even 2100. These forward-looking studies require a base case scenario in order to assess the impacts of a policy. In this article, we hypothesise how a baseline is ‘rolled forward’, and specifically, how this process can materially alter the apparent performance of an energy or climate change policy. In the literature, we find a variety of methods are used to update databases and project forward base case scenarios, some which scale an entire economy to a general trend of growth, whereas others account for sectoral differences. We extend a global electricity-detailed model (GTAP-E-Power) to examine our hypothesis. We evaluate impacts of a world-wide carbon tax policy ($50/t of carbon dioxide equivalent) using three different baselines, with varying levels of specificity relating to macroeconomic projections and sectoral developments and constraints. Results show the impact on sectors and the overall economy in all countries are highly diverse when different baselines are used. For example, fossil-based power output in the United States declines between 36.7 and 65.5% while Real GDP in China declines between −0.66 and −1.54% for an identical policy, depending on which baseline methodology is used. Above all, we find that stronger development of renewable energy and technology in the baselines results in lower costs of a climate change mitigation policy.

Vietnam&rsquo, s forests have experienced a notable transformation over the past 20 years from net deforestation to reforestation and expanding forests. Continued reforestation that aims to achieve further economic and environmental benefits remains a national priority and strategy. We explore the current status of plantation forests and highlight possible means to facilitate their expansion in the uplands of Vietnam. We employ mixed method triangulation to empirically explore plantation forests and their economic role in household livelihood, to quantify trade-offs between plantation forests and shifting cultivation, and to assess the constraints on plantation forest expansion in Nghe An province, north-central Vietnam. Results show that forest in the study area expanded by 406,000 ha (71.1%) between 1990 and 2016. Plantation forests increased by nearly 500% (from 32,000 ha to 190,000 ha), while natural forests expanded by 48.1% (from 538,000 ha to 797,000 ha). Plantation forests contributed an average of 35.1 percent of total household income in wealthier households and 27.9 percent of income in poor households. Switching from shifting cultivation to plantation forests would increase total household income and average carbon stock but decrease food provision. Total Economic Value would be higher for plantation forest scenarios if increased carbon stocks in plantations can be monetized. This carbon income might drive conversion of shifting cultivation to plantation forests. Constraints on further expansion of plantation forest are low external cooperation, education, market stability, and agroforestry extension services. Our empirical results inform national plantation forest development, sustainable upland livelihood development, and climate change mitigation programs to ultimately facilitate forest transition and improve the resilience and sustainability of socio-ecological systems.

This study aims to fill a gap in the literature by examining the impacts of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Vietnam, as the policy has been discussed for a decade in the country but the likely impacts on the economy and different sectors are still unidentified. The simulations are carried out in a global energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, an extension of the GTAP-E model, which treats Vietnam as a country region. Results show that restricting the number of industrial sectors in the emissions trading market substantially affects the country's economy with a decline in real GDP by 4.57%. However, the country experiences much smaller adverse impacts (e.g., real GDP declines by 1.78%) when all industries participate in the emissions trading market. In either case of the ETS design, the coal mining, manufacturing, transportation, and electricity sectors are highly adversely affected; however, the crude oil and natural gas extraction sectors would experience expansion in their production levels due to substitutions for coal. In general, under the policy the emission levels from burning fossil fuels decline at significant rates, particularly from the electricity generation sector.