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Purpose: Urinary tract infection leads to a diagnosis of moderate or high grade (III or higher) vesicoureteral reflux in approximately 15% of children. Predicting reflux grade III or higher would make it possible to restrict cystography to high risk cases. We aimed to derive a clinical decision rule to predict vesicoureteral reflux grade III or higher in children with a first febrile urinary tract infection., Materials and Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of prospective series including all children with a first febrile urinary tract infection from the 8 European participating university hospitals., Results: A total of 494 patients (197 boys, reflux grade III or higher in 11%) were included. Procalcitonin and ureteral dilatation on ultrasound were significantly associated with reflux grade III or higher and then combined into a prediction model with an ROC AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.69-0.81). Given the prespecified constraint of achieving at least 85% sensitivity, our model led to the clinical decision rule, for children with a first febrile urinary tract infection cystography should be performed in cases with ureteral dilatation and serum procalcitonin level 0.17 ng/ml or higher, or without ureteral dilatation (ie ureter not visible) when serum procalcitonin level is 0.63 ng/ml or higher. The rule had 86% sensitivity (95% CI 74-93) with 47% specificity (95% CI 42-51). Internal cross-validation produced 86% sensitivity (95% CI 79-93) and 43% specificity (95% CI 39-47)., Conclusions: A clinical decision rule was derived to enable a selective approach to cystography in children with urinary tract infection. The rule predicts high grade vesicoureteral reflux with approximately 85% sensitivity and avoids half of the cystograms that do not find reflux grade III or higher. Further validation is needed before its widespread use., (Copyright © 2012 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To validate high serum procalcitonin (PCT) as a predictor of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in children with a first febrile urinary tract infection (UTI)., Study Design: This secondary analysis of prospective hospital-based cohort studies included children ages 1 month to 4 years with a first febrile UTI., Results: Of the 398 patients included in 8 centers in 7 European countries, 25% had VUR. The median PCT concentration was significantly higher in children with VUR than in those without: 1.6 versus 0.7 ng/mL (P = 10(-4)). High PCT (> or =0.5 ng/mL) was associated with VUR (OR: 2.3; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.9; P = 10(-3)). After adjustment for all cofactors, the association remained significant (OR: 2.5; 95% CI, 1.4 to 4.4; P = 10(-3)). The strength of the relation increased with the grade of reflux (P = 10(-5)). The sensitivity of procalcitonin was 75% (95% CI, 66 to 83) for all-grade VUR and 100% (95% CI, 81 to 100) for grade > or =4 VUR, both with 43% specificity (95% CI, 37 to 48)., Conclusions: High PCT is a strong, independent and now validated predictor of VUR that can be used to identify low-risk patients and thus avoid one third of the unnecessary cystourethrographies in children with a first febrile UTI.