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2. Hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling of age- and sex-structured wildlife population dynamics

Author

Mukhopadhyay, Sabyasachi, Piepho, Hans-Peter, Bhattacharya, Sourabh, Dublin, Holly T., and Ogutu, Joseph O.

Subjects
Statistics - Applications
Abstract

Biodiversity is declining at alarming rates worldwide, including for large wild mammals. It is therefore imperative to develop effective population conservation and recovery strategies. Population dynamics models can provide insights into processes driving declines of particular populations of a species and their relative importance. We develop an integrated Bayesian state-space population dynamics model for wildlife populations and illustrate it using a topi population inhabiting the Masai Mara Ecosystem in Kenya. The model is general and integrates ground demographic survey with aerial survey monitoring data. It incorporates population age- and sex-structure and life-history traits and relates birth rates, age-specific survival rates and sex ratio with meteorological covariates, prior population density, environmental seasonality and predation risk. The model runs on a monthly time step, enabling accurate characterization of reproductive seasonality, phenology, synchrony and prolificacy of births and juvenile recruitment. Model performance is evaluated using balanced bootstrap sampling and comparing predictions with aerial population size estimates. The model is implemented using MCMC methods and reproduces several well-known features of the Mara topi population, including striking and persistent population decline, seasonality of births and juvenile recruitment. It can be readily adapted for other wildlife species and extended to incorporate several additional useful features.

Published
2020

5. Conserving the World’s Megafauna and Biodiversity : The Fierce Urgency of Now

Author

RIPPLE, WILLIAM J., CHAPRON, GUILLAUME, LÓPEZ-BAO, JOSÉ VICENTE, DURANT, SARAH M., MACDONALD, DAVID W., LINDSEY, PETER A., BENNETT, ELIZABETH L., BESCHTA, ROBERT L., BRUSKOTTER, JEREMY T., CAMPOS-ARCEIZ, AHIMSA, CORLETT, RICHARD T., DARIMONT, CHRIS T., DICKMAN, AMY J., DIRZO, RODOLFO, DUBLIN, HOLLY T., ESTES, JAMES A., EVERATT, KRISTOFFER T., GALETTI, MAURO, GOSWAMI, VARUN R., HAYWARD, MATT W., HEDGES, SIMON, HOFFMANN, MICHAEL, HUNTER, LUKE T. B., KERLEY, GRAHAM I. H., LETNIC, MIKE, LEVI, TAAL, MAISELS, FIONA, MORRISON, JOHN C., NELSON, MICHAEL PAUL, NEWSOME, THOMAS M., PAINTER, LUKE, PRINGLE, ROBERT M., SANDOM, CHRISTOPHER J., TERBORGH, JOHN, TREVES, ADRIAN, VAN VALKENBURGH, BLAIRE, VUCETICH, JOHN A., WIRSING, AARON J., WALLACH, ARIAN D., WOLF, CHRISTOPHER, WOODROFFE, ROSIE, YOUNG, HILLARY, and ZHANG, LI

Published
2017

7. Saving the World’s Terrestrial Megafauna

Author

RIPPLE, WILLIAM J., CHAPRON, GUILLAUME, LÓPEZ-BAO, JOSÉ VICENTE, DURANT, SARAH M., MACDONALD, DAVID W., LINDSEY, PETER A., BENNETT, ELIZABETH L., BESCHTA, ROBERT L., BRUSKOTTER, JEREMY T., CAMPOS-ARCEIZ, AHIMSA, CORLETT, RICHARD T., DARIMONT, CHRIS T., DICKMAN, AMY J., DIRZO, RODOLFO, DUBLIN, HOLLY T., ESTES, JAMES A., EVERATT, KRISTOFFER T., GALETTI, MAURO, GOSWAMI, VARUN R., HAYWARD, MATT W., HEDGES, SIMON, HOFFMANN, MICHAEL, HUNTER, LUKE T. B., KERLEY, GRAHAM I. H., LETNIC, MIKE, LEVI, TAAL, MAISELS, FIONA, MORRISON, JOHN C., NELSON, MICHAEL PAUL, NEWSOME, THOMAS M., PAINTER, LUKE, PRINGLE, ROBERT M., SANDOM, CHRISTOPHER J., TERBORGH, JOHN, TREVES, ADRIAN, VALKENBURGH, BLAIRE VAN, VUCETICH, JOHN A., WIRSING, AARON J., WALLACH, ARIAN D., WOLF, CHRISTOPHER, WOODROFFE, ROSIE, YOUNG, HILLARY, and ZHANG, LI

Published
2016

9. The Impact of Conservation on the Status of the World's Vertebrates

Author

Hoffmann, Michael, Hilton-Taylor, Craig, Angulo, Ariadne, Böhm, Monika, Brooks, Thomas M., Butchart, Stuart H. M., Carpenter, Kent E., Chanson, Janice, Collen, Ben, Cox, Neil A., Darwall, William R. T., Dulvy, Nicholas K., Harrison, Lucy R., Katariya, Vineet, Pollock, Caroline M., Quader, Suhel, Richman, Nadia I., Rodrigues, Ana S. L., Tognelli, Marcelo F., Vie, Jean-Christophe, Aguiar, John M., Allen, David J., Allen, Gerald R., Amori, Giovanni, Ananjeva, Natalia B., Andreone, Franco, Andrew, Paul, Ortiz, Aida Luz Aquino, Baillie, Jonathan E. M., Baldi, Ricardo, Bell, Ben D., Biju, S. D., Bird, Jeremy P., Black-Decima, Patricia, Blanc, J. Julian, Bolaños, Federico, Bolivar-G., Wilmar, Burfield, Ian J., Burton, James A., Capper, David R., Castro, Fernando, Catullo, Gianluca, Cavanagh, Rachel D., Channing, Alan, Chao, Ning Labbish, Chenery, Anna M., Chiozza, Federica, Clausnitzer, Viola, Collar, Nigel J., Collett, Leah C., Collette, Bruce B., Fernandez, Claudia F. Cortez, Craig, Matthew T., Crosby, Michael J., Cumberlidge, Neil, Cuttelod, Annabelle, Derocher, Andrew E., Diesmos, Arvin C., Donaldson, John S., Duckworth, J. W., Dutson, Guy, Dutta, S. K., Emslie, Richard H., Farjon, Aljos, Fowler, Sarah, Freyhof, Jörg, Garshelis, David L., Gerlach, Justin, Gower, David J., Grant, Tandora D., Hammerson, Geoffrey A., Harris, Richard B., Heaney, Lawrence R., Hedges, S. Blair, Hero, Jean-Marc, Hughes, Baz, Hussain, Syed Ainul, Icochea M., Javier, Inger, Robert F., Ishii, Nobuo, Iskandar, Djoko T., Jenkins, Richard K. B., Kaneko, Yoshio, Kottelat, Maurice, Kovacs, Kit M., Kuzmin, Sergius L., La Marca, Enrique, Lamoreux, John F., Lau, Michael W. N., Lavilla, Esteban O., Leus, Kristin, Lewison, Rebecca L., Lichtenstein, Gabriela, Livingstone, Suzanne R., Lukoschek, Vimoksalehi, Mallon, David P., McGowan, Philip J. K., Mclvor, Anna, Moehlman, Patricia D., Molur, Sanjay, Alonso, Antonio Muñoz, Musick, John A., Nowell, Kristin, Nussbaum, Ronald A., Olech, Wanda, Orlov, Nikolay L., Papenfuss, Theodore J., Parra-Olea, Gabriela, Perrin, William F., Polidoro, Beth A., Pourkazemi, Mohammad, Racey, Paul A., Ragle, James S., Ram, Mala, Rathbun, Galen, Reynolds, Robert P., Rhodin, Anders G. J., Richards, Stephen J., Rodríguez, Lily O., Ron, Santiago R., Rondinini, Carlo, Rylands, Anthony B., de Mitcheson, Yvonne Sadovy, Sanciangco, Jonnell C., Sanders, Kate L., Santos-Barrera, Georgina, Schipper, Jan, Self-Sullivan, Caryn, Shi, Yichuan, Shoemaker, Alan, Short, Frederick T., Sillero-Zubiri, Claudio, Silvano, Débora L., Smith, Kevin G., Smith, Andrew T., Snoeks, Jos, Stattersfield, Alison J., Symes, Andrew J., Taber, Andrew B., Talukdar, Bibhab K., Temple, Helen J., Timmins, Rob, Tobias, Joseph A., Tsytsulina, Katerina, Tweddle, Denis, Ubeda, Carmen, Valenti, Sarah V., van Dijk, Peter Paul, Veiga, Liza M., Veloso, Alberto, Wege, David C., Wilkinson, Mark, Williamson, Elizabeth A., Xie, Feng, Young, Bruce E., Akçakaya, H. Resit, Bennun, Leon, Blackburn, Tim M., Boitani, Luigi, Dublin, Holly T., da Fonseca, Gustavo A. B., Gascon, Claude, Lacher, Thomas E., Mace, Georgina M., Mainka, Susan A., McNeely, Jeffery A., Mittermeier, Russell A., Reid, Gordon McGregor, Rodriguez, Jon Paul, Rosenberg, Andrew A., Samways, Michael J., Smart, Jane, Stein, Bruce A., and Stuart, Simon N.

Published
2010

10. The Status of the World's Land and Marine Mammals: Diversity, Threat, and Knowledge

Author

Schipper, Jan, Chanson, Janice S., Chiozza, Federica, Cox, Neil A., Hoffmann, Michael, Katariya, Vineet, Lamoreux, John, Rodrigues, Ana S. L., Stuart, Simon N., Temple, Helen J., Baillie, Jonathan, Boitani, Luigi, Lacher, Thomas E., Mittermeier, Russell A., Smith, Andrew T., Absolon, Daniel, Aguiar, John M., Amori, Giovanni, Bakkour, Noura, Baldi, Ricardo, Berridge, Richard J., Bielby, Jon, Black, Patricia Ann, Blanc, J. Julian, Brooks, Thomas M., Burton, James A., Butynski, Thomas M., Catullo, Gianluca, Chapman, Roselle, Cokeliss, Zoe, Collen, Ben, Conroy, Jim, Cooke, Justin G., Fonseca, Gustavo A. B. da, Derocher, Andrew E., Dublin, Holly T., Duckworth, J. W., Emmons, Louise, Emslie, Richard H., Festa-Bianchet, Marco, Foster, Matt, Foster, Sabrina, Garshelis, David L., Gates, Cormack, Gimenez-Dixon, Mariano, Gonzalez, Susana, Gonzalez-Maya, Jose Fernando, Good, Tatjana C., Hammerson, Geoffrey, Hammond, Philip S., Happold, David, Happold, Meredith, Hare, John, Harris, Richard B., Hawkins, Clare E., Haywood, Mandy, Heaney, Lawrence R., Hedges, Simon, Helgen, Kristofer M., Hilton-Taylor, Craig, Hussain, Syed Ainul, Ishii, Nobuo, Jefferson, Thomas A., Jenkins, Richard K. B., Johnston, Charlotte H., Keith, Mark, Kingdon, Jonathan, Knox, David H., Kovacs, Kit M., Langhammer, Penny, Leus, Kristin, Lewison, Rebecca, Lichtenstein, Gabriela, Lowry, Lloyd F., Macavoy, Zoe, Mace, Georgina M., Mallon, David P., Masi, Monica, McKnight, Meghan W., Medellín, Rodrigo A., Medici, Patricia, Mills, Gus, Moehlman, Patricia D., Molur, Sanjay, Mora, Arturo, Nowell, Kristin, Oates, John F., Olech, Wanda, Oliver, William R. L., Oprea, Monik, Patterson, Bruce D., Perrin, William F., Polidoro, Beth A., Pollock, Caroline, Powel, Abigail, Protas, Yelizaveta, Racey, Paul, Ragle, Jim, Ramani, Pavithra, Rathbun, Galen, Reeves, Randall R., Reilly, Stephen B., Reynolds, John E., Rondinini, Carlo, Rosell-Ambal, Ruth Grace, Rulli, Monica, Rylands, Anthony B., Savini, Simona, Schank, Cody J., Sechrest, Wes, Self-Sullivan, Caryn, Shoemaker, Alan, Sillero-Zubiri, Claudio, De Silva, Naamal, Smith, David E., Srinivasulu, Chelmala, Stephenson, Peter J., van Strien, Nico, Talukdar, Bibhab Kumar, Taylor, Barbara L., Timmins, Rob, Tirira, Diego G., Tognelli, Marcelo F., Tsytsulina, Katerina, Veiga, Liza M., Vié, Jean-Christophe, Williamson, Elizabeth A., Wyatt, Sarah A., Xie, Yan, and Young, Bruce E.

Published
2008
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11. Supplementary Material for: Drivers and facilitators of the illegal killing of elephants across 64 African sites

Author

Kuiper, Timothy, Altwegg, Res, Beale, Colin, Carroll, Thea, Dublin, Holly T., Hauenstein, Severin, Kshatriya, Mrigesh, Schwarz, Carl, Thouless, Chris R., Royle, Andrew, and Milner-Gulland, E.J.

Abstract

This includes: Supplementary Material S1: Supplementary Figures S1 to S6 Supplementary Material S2- Supplementary Text: Full supplementary details on covariates tested in the statistical model (literature evidence for hypothesis, data source, and data extraction methods). This includes supplementary Figures S7 to S11. Supplementary Material S3- Supplementary Text: Covariates reviewed but not tested in the statistical model References for supplementary text

Published
2022
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22. IUCN's encounter with 007: safeguarding consensus for conservation

Author

Stuart, Simon N., primary, Al Dhaheri, Shaikha, additional, Bennett, Elizabeth L., additional, Biggs, Duan, additional, Bignell, Andrew, additional, Byers, Onnie, additional, Cooney, Rosie, additional, Donaldson, John, additional, Dublin, Holly T., additional, Eggermont, Hilde, additional, Engels, Barbara, additional, van Havre, Basile, additional, Hoffmann, Michael, additional, Horie, Masahiko, additional, Hutton, Jon, additional, Khosla, Ashok, additional, Launay, Frédéric, additional, Lees, Caroline, additional, Mace, Georgina M., additional, Marton-Lefèvre, Julia, additional, Menon, Vivek, additional, Mittermeier, Russell A., additional, Pataridze, Tamar, additional, Pellerano, Miguel, additional, Perez Gil, Ramon, additional, Robinson, John G., additional, Rodríguez, Jon Paul, additional, Te Pareake Mead, Aroha, additional, Thomas, Spencer, additional, and von Weissenberg, Marina, additional

Published
2017
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23. IUCN's encounter with 007: safeguarding consensus for conservation.

Author

Stuart, Simon N., Al Dhaheri, Shaikha, Bennett, Elizabeth L., Biggs, Duan, Bignell, Andrew, Byers, Onnie, Cooney, Rosie, Donaldson, John, Dublin, Holly T., Eggermont, Hilde, Engels, Barbara, van Havre, Basile, Hoffmann, Michael, Horie, Masahiko, Hutton, Jon, Khosla, Ashok, Launay, Frédéric, Lees, Caroline, Mace, Georgina M., and Marton-Lefèvre, Julia

Subjects
VALUE proposition, DOMESTIC markets
Abstract

A controversy at the 2016 IUCN World Conservation Congress on the topic of closing domestic ivory markets (the 007, or so-called James Bond, motion) has given rise to a debate on IUCN's value proposition. A cross-section of authors who are engaged in IUCN but not employed by the organization, and with diverse perspectives and opinions, here argue for the importance of safeguarding and strengthening the unique technical and convening roles of IUCN, providing examples of what has and has not worked. Recommendations for protecting and enhancing IUCN's contribution to global conservation debates and policy formulation are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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24. Saving the world's terrestrial megafauna

Author

Ripple, William J, Chapron, Guillaume, López-Bao, Jose Vicente, Durant, Sarah M, Macdonald, David W, Lindsey, Peter A, Bennett, Elizabeth L, Beschta, Robert L, Bruskotter, Jeremy T, Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa, Corlett, Richard T, Darimont, Chris T, Dickman, Amy J, Dirzo, Rodolfo, Dublin, Holly T, Estes, James A, Everatt, Kristoffer T, Galetti, Mauro, Goswami, Varun R, Hayward, Matt W, Hedges, Simon, Hoffmann, Michael, Hunter, Luke TB, Kerley, Graham IH, Letnic, Mike, Levi, Taal, Maisels, Fiona, Morrison, John C, Nelson, Michael Paul, Newsome, Thomas M, Painter, Luke, Pringle, Robert M, Sandom, Christopher J, Terborgh, John, Treves, Adrian, Van Valkenburgh, Blaire, Vucetich, John A, Wirsing, Aaaron J, Wallach, Arian D, Wolf, Christopher, Woodroffe, Rosie, Young, Hillary, Zhang, Li, Ripple, William J, Chapron, Guillaume, López-Bao, Jose Vicente, Durant, Sarah M, Macdonald, David W, Lindsey, Peter A, Bennett, Elizabeth L, Beschta, Robert L, Bruskotter, Jeremy T, Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa, Corlett, Richard T, Darimont, Chris T, Dickman, Amy J, Dirzo, Rodolfo, Dublin, Holly T, Estes, James A, Everatt, Kristoffer T, Galetti, Mauro, Goswami, Varun R, Hayward, Matt W, Hedges, Simon, Hoffmann, Michael, Hunter, Luke TB, Kerley, Graham IH, Letnic, Mike, Levi, Taal, Maisels, Fiona, Morrison, John C, Nelson, Michael Paul, Newsome, Thomas M, Painter, Luke, Pringle, Robert M, Sandom, Christopher J, Terborgh, John, Treves, Adrian, Van Valkenburgh, Blaire, Vucetich, John A, Wirsing, Aaaron J, Wallach, Arian D, Wolf, Christopher, Woodroffe, Rosie, Young, Hillary, and Zhang, Li

Abstract

Species at risk of extinction include some of the world's most iconic animals—such as gorillas, rhinos, and big cats (figure 2 top row)—and, unfortunately, they are vanishing just as science is discovering their essential ecological roles (Estes et al. 2011). Here, our objectives are to raise awareness of how these megafauna are imperiled (species in tables S1 and S2) and to stimulate broad interest in developing specific recommendations and concerted action to conserve them.

Published
2016

38. Decline of the Mara woodlands : the role of fire and elephants

Author

Dublin, Holly T.

Abstract

The Masai Mara Game Reserve of southwestern Kenya forms the northernmost extension of the Serengeti ecosystem and provides the critical dry season range for approximately 1.5 million migratory wildebeest. Over the past 100 years, major ecological changes have occurred. The area has experienced a transformation from open grassland to dense woodlands and back. This study addressed the transition in the Mara woodlands from both an historical and a contemporary perspective. The study focused on two central questions: 1) what factor (or factors) were responsible for the decline of the woodlands in the 1960s? And 2) what factor (or factors) are currently responsible for inhibiting woodland regeneration? In the 1880s an introduced disease, rinderpest, decimated wild and domestic ungulates in the Serengeti-Mara region. Local pastoralists, dependent on their livestock for survival, succumbed to disease and starvation. Elephant numbers had also been greatly reduced by indigenous hunters. Explorers, slave traders, and hunters described the area as an open grassland by 1900. In the following decades, conditions were conducive to the establishment of woodlands; burning rates were low and elephant browsing was negligible. By the 1930s, the area was covered by dense woodland. These woodlands began a steady decline several decades later. Unusually high rainfall, high grass productivity, and severe fires characterized the period of greatest decline (1961 1967). Although woodland losses were initially viewed as "elephant problems", findings from this study suggest that fire was the primary factor in the disappearance of woodlands, while elephants merely accelerated the rate of decline. Elephants preferred open grasslands, swamps, and relict thickets in the wet season. However, in the dry season, elephants selected wooded habitats. Average group size was significantly higher in the wet season than the dry. Mara elephants fit the same feeding patterns reported for many African elephant populations. Elephants concentrated on grasses and herbs in the rainy season and browse in the dry season. In general, males browsed more than females, while females ate more diverse diets containing more herbaceous matter. Elephants utilized seedlings under 1m more than any other height class of trees throughout the year. This pattern of selective feeding significantly reduced seedling survivorship. Large-scale field experiments subjected plants to three treatments: browsed only, browsed and burned, and neither browsed nor burned. Although fire, at current fuel loadings and intensities, produced an almost total topkill, the majority of burned individuals resprouted within six months. Elephants removed a significant proportion of seedlings and severely damaged others. Wildebeest inhibited seedling growth through trampling, thrashing, and accidental browsing. Only those seedlings protected from both burning and browsing increased in height. Woodland dynamics in the Mara are currently more affected by elephants, wildebeest, and other browsers than by fire. Elephants can be considered a "keystone" species in this system. I concluded that elephants were not capable of initiating the woodland declines which started over two decades ago. However, once tree densities had been reduced by previous perturbations (such as increased burning rates following a reduction in wildebeest numbers and an increased frequency of man-made fires), elephants accelerated the rate of decline. My findings did not support Caughley's "stable limit cycle" hypothesis. Today, elephants are holding the Mara in a grassland phase, despite low burning rates. This pattern suggests that the Mara may have two locally stable states, woodland or grassland, and that an external factor such as fire is necessary to move the system between the two. Elephants, alone, apparently cannot move the system from one state to another, but once it is in the grassland phase, they can hold it there.

Published
1986
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41. Letters.

Author

Purcell, Mike, Ashton, Glenn, Barten, Ulrike, Chankaya, Kurt, Kloosterman, Dan, Bernasor, Joel A., Vegini, Vladir, Otranto, John, Jilanee, S. G., Junaid, Ahmad, Ul-Haq Siddiqi, Parvez, Shaikh, Salim, Markanda, Arjun, Qazi, Asad, Amin Aslam, Malik, Mutagahywa, Georgia, Eull, Ted James, and Dublin, Holly T.

Subjects
LETTERS to the editor, TREATIES, COUPS d'etat, DEATH
Abstract

Presents readers' responses to articles in the October 25, 1999 issue of `Newsweek.' United States rejection of the nuclear test-ban treaty; Coup in Pakistan; The death of Tanzanian president Julius Nyerere.

Published
1999

42. What Went Wrong?

Author

Wells, Michael, McShane, Thomas O., Dublin, Holly T., O'Connor, Sheila, and Redford, Kent H.

Subjects
CONSERVATION Operations Program, FOREST conservation, INDIGENOUS peoples, SOCIAL participation, CONSERVATION projects (Natural resources), FINANCE
Abstract

Enumerates factors that led to the failure of the Integrated Conservation and Development Projects. Naive assumptions; Unconvincing notions of local participation; Limited revenue to cover operating costs; Failure to generate enough benefits to provide incentives for conservation.

Published
2004

43. A reply to the response by Holt, Papastavrou & Phillips to CITES Conference of Parties 11: an FFI perspective.

Author

Barnes, Richard F.W., Craig, G. Colin, Dublin, Holly T., and Thouless, Chris R.

Subjects
WHALES, WHALING, CONFERENCES & conventions
Abstract

Replies to criticisms on the author's news report on the CITES Conference of Parties 11 held in Nairobi, Kenya concerning minkle whale populations. References of the author's report requested by the critics; Author's defense that the report was not a scientific peer-reviewed article on whaling but simply an overview of the conference.

Published
2001

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