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Xiaoguang Xiao,1 Jianhai Sun,2 Dongsheng Zhang,3 Linjun Li,4 Haibo Zhou,5 Yongjun Li,6 Quan Li,7 Zhongshi He,8 Yang Fu,9 Qiwen Duan,10 Guping Zheng,11 Ze Tang,12 Qian Chu,1,&ast; Yuan Chen1,&ast; 1Department of Oncology, Tongji Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Oncology, Hubei Zhongshan Hospital, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Oncology, Suizhou Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Suizhou, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Oncology, Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, Wuhan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Oncology, Yichang Central People’s Hospital, Yichang, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 6Department of Oncology, Yichang Second People’s Hospital, Yichang, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 7Department of Oncology, Xiangyang Central Hospital, Xiangyang, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 8Department of Oncology, Xiangyang No 1 People’s Hospital Affiliated to Hubei University of Medicine, Xiangyang, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 9Department of Oncology, Xiangyang Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiangyang, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 10Department of Oncology, Taihe Hospital, Shiyan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 11Department of Oncology, Xiaogan Central Hospital, Xiaogan, Hubei, People’s Republic of China; 12Department of Oncology, Huangshi Central Hospital, Huangshi, Hubei, People’s Republic of China&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Qian Chu; Yuan Chen, Email qianchu@tjh.tjmu.edu.cn; chenyuantj2023@126.comBackground: Studies have shown that oral oxycontin tablets can be used for opioid titration. The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) guidelines for adult cancer pain recommend opioid titration through the parenteral route, usually the intravenous or subcutaneous route. Patient-controlled subcutaneous analgesia (PCSA) with hydromorphone needs further evaluation for opioid titration. This prospective multicenter study was designed to compare the efficacy and safety of hydromorphone PCSA with oral oxycontin tablets for opioid titration of cancer pain.Patients and Methods: Eligible patients with cancer pain were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to the PCSA group or the oxycontin group for dose titration. Different titration methods were given in both groups depending on whether the patient had an opioid tolerance. The primary endpoint of this study was time to successful titration (TST).Results: A total of 256 patients completed this study. The PCSA group had a significantly lower TST compared with the oxycontin group (median [95% confidence interval (CI)], 5.5[95% CI:2.5– 11.5] hours vs.16.0 [95% CI:11.5– 22.5] hours; p< 0.001). The frequency (median; interquartile) of breakthrough pain (Btp) over 24 hours was significantly lower in the PCSA group (2.5;2.0– 3.5) than in the oxycontin group.(3.0; 2.5– 4.5) (p=0.04). The pain was evaluated by numeric rating scale (NRS) score at 12 hours after the start of titration. The pain score (median; interquartile) was significantly lower in the PCSA versus the oxycontin group (2.5;1.5– 3.0) vs 4.5;3.0– 6.0) (p=0.02). The equivalent dose of oral morphine (EDOM) for a successful titration was similar in both groups (p=0.29), but there was a significant improvement in quality of life (QoL) in both groups (p=0.03). No between-group difference in the incidence of opioid-related adverse effects was observed (p=0.32).Conclusion: Compared with oral oxycontin tablet, the use of PCSA with hydromorphone achieved a shorter titration duration for patients with cancer pain (p< 0.001), without significantly increasing adverse events (p=0.32).Keywords: cancer pain, opioid titration, oxycontin tablets, hydromorphone, patient-controlled subcutaneous analgesia

Jie Huang,1,&ast; Wenqiang Zhu,1,&ast; Qiangzhi Duan,2,&ast; Chaomang Zhu,1 Xueling Shi,1 Hongyu Zhao,1 Peng Cai,1 Duojie Li1 1Department of Radiotherapy, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, Anhui, 233000, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Radiotherapy, The 2nd Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, Anhui, 233000, People’s Republic of China&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Duojie Li, Department of Radiotherapy, The First Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical College, Bengbu, Anhui, 233000, People’s Republic of China, Tel/Fax +86-139-5633-2626, Email liduojie@163.comPurpose: To explore the efficacy and safety of pyrotinib combined with different radiotherapy modes in human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer (BC) patients with brain metastasis (BM).Patients and Methods: This study is a retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with BM who underwent treatment with pyrotinib between November 2018 and April 2023. A total of 66 patients were administered radiotherapy in conjunction with pyrotinib (Group A), while 26 patients received pyrotinib as a standalone treatment (Group B). Within Group A, 18 patients underwent conventional fractionated radiotherapy (2Gy/F), while 48 patients received hyperfractionated radiotherapy (HFRT) (≥ 3Gy/F). The primary endpoints were intracranial progression-free survival (IC-PFS) and overall survival (OS). The secondary endpoints were objective response rate (ORR) and clinical benefit rate (CBR).Results: The ORR of Group A was 54.5% (36/66), while the ORR of Group B was 34.6% (9/26) (P= 0.047). The CBR of Group A was 89.4% (59/66) and that of Group B was 69.2% (18/26) (P= 0.041). The IC-PFS between Group A and Group B were 12 months and 8 months, respectively (P< 0.001), and the OS were 20 months and 16 months, respectively (P= 0.065). In Group A, the IC-PFS and OS between the conventional fractionation radiotherapy group and the HFRT group were 10 months and 12 months, respectively (P= 0.001) and 16 months and 24 months, respectively (P< 0.001). No serious adverse reactions were observed in Group A and Group B.Conclusion: For HER2-positive BC patients with BM, it is recommended to adopt the treatment mode of HFRT combined with pyrotinib, which can improve the local control and survival of patients.Keywords: breast cancer, human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2, brain metastasis, pyrotinib, radiation therapy, hyperfractionated radiotherapy

Hongxia Ma,1 Qian Zhang,1 Yanwen Zhao,1 Yaohui Zhang,1 Jingjing Zhang,1 Guoqing Chen,1 Yuan Tan,2– 4 Qin Zhang,2– 4 Qianqian Duan,2– 4 Tingting Sun,2– 4 Chuang Qi,2– 4 Fengsen Li1 1Pneumology Department, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China; 2The Medical Department, Jiangsu Simcere Diagnostics Co., Ltd, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, People’s Republic of China; 3Nanjing Simcere Medical Laboratory Science Co., Ltd, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, People’s Republic of China; 4The State Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine and Innovative Drug Development, Jiangsu Simcere Diagnostics Co., Ltd, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Fengsen Li, Pneumology department, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China, Email drmahongxia@163.comIntroduction: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer often coexist, but its pathophysiology and genomics features are still unclear.Methods: In this study, we retrospectively collected lung cancer concomitant COPD (COPD-LC) and non-COPD lung cancer (non-COPD-LC) patients, who performed next generation sequencing (NGS) and had clinicopathological information simultaneously. The COPD-LC data from the TCGA cohort were collected to conduct further analysis.Results: A total of 51 COPD-LC patients and 88 non-COPD-LC patients were included in the study. Clinicopathological analysis showed that proportion of male gender, older age, and smoking patients were all substantially higher in COPD-LC group than in non-COPD-LC group (all P< 0.01). Comparing the genomic data of the two groups in our cohort, COPD-LC had higher mutation frequency of LRP1B (43% vs 9%, P = 0.001), EPHA5 (24% vs 1%, P = 0.002), PRKDC (14% vs 1%, P = 0.039), PREX2 (14% vs 0%, P = 0.012), and FAT1 (14% vs 0%, P = 0.012), which had a relationship with improved tumor immunity. Immunotherapy biomarker of PD-L1 positive expression (62.5% vs 52.0%, P = 0.397) and tumor mutation burden (TMB, median TMB: 7.09 vs 2.94, P = 0.004) also were higher in COPD-LC. In addition, RNA data from TCGA further indicated tumor immunity increased in COPD-LC. Whereas, COPD-LC had lower frequency of EGFR mutation (19% vs 50%, P = 0.013) and EGFR mutant COPD-LC treated with EGFR-TKI had worse progression-free survival (PFS) (HR = 3.52, 95% CI: 1.27– 9.80, P = 0.01).Conclusion: In this retrospective study, we first explored molecular features of COPD-LC in a Chinese population. Although COPD-LC had lower EGFR mutant frequency and worse PFS with target treatment, high PD-L1 expression and TMB indicated these patients may benefit from immunotherapy.Keywords: lung cancer, COPD, mutation landscape, Chinese population, molecular markers

Zheng Qin,1 Dawei Liu,2 Xiaojun You,3 Qin Duan,3 Yu Zhao1 1Department of Vascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The Bishan Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 402760, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Qin Duan, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of China, Email duanqin11@126.com Yu Zhao, Department of Vascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, People’s Republic of China, Email zhaoyucqmu@126.comBackground: The impact of pulse pressure (PP) on indexes of myocardial work (MWIs). This study aims to explore the potential association of high PP with myocardial work (MW).Hypothesis: PP had an association with four indexes of MW in a mixed population of normotensive, prehypertensive and newly diagnosed hypertensive individuals.Methods: The study was a single-center, cross-sectional, observational study. A total of 204 participants (66 normotensive, 35 prehypertensive and 103 newly diagnosed hypertensive individuals) were evaluated by speckle-tracking echocardiography (STE) and blood pressure measurement. According to the PP tertiles, the participants were divided into three groups: Group I (< 44 mmHg, n=67), Group II (44– 52 mmHg, n=68) and Group III (≥ 52 mmHg, n=69).Results: In Group II and Group III, the proportion of males was higher than that in Group I (median 46 vs 30 (P=0.002)). With increasing PP, the three indexes of MW, namely, GWI, GCW and GWW, increased, and the differences among the three groups were statistically significant (P< 0.001). PP was positively related to GWI, GCW and GWW and negatively correlated with GWE. After adjusting for E/e’, LVMI, LAVI and GLS, PP was still significantly correlated with the four MW indexes (both P< 0.001).Conclusion: PP had a strong association with four indexes of MW in a mixed population of normotensive, prehypertensive and newly diagnosed hypertensive individuals. The evaluation of PP and MWIs might be valuable for identifying very early diastolic impairment of the heart.Keywords: arterial stiffness, myocardial work, hypertension, speckle-tracking echocardiography, pulse pressure

Simplicity and flexibility of meta-heuristic optimization algorithms have attracted lots of attention in the field of optimization. Different optimization methods, however, hold algorithm-specific strengths and limitations, and selecting the best-performing algorithm for a specific problem is a tedious task. We introduce a new hybrid optimization framework, entitled Shuffled Complex-Self Adaptive Hybrid EvoLution (SC-SAHEL), which combines the strengths of different evolutionary algorithms (EAs) in a parallel computing scheme. SC-SAHEL explores performance of different EAs, such as the capability to escape local attractions, speed, convergence, etc., during population evolution as each individual EA suits differently to various response surfaces. The SC-SAHEL algorithm is benchmarked over 29 conceptual test functions, and a real-world hydropower reservoir model case study. Results show that the hybrid SC-SAHEL algorithm is rigorous and effective in finding global optimum for a majority of test cases, and that it is computationally efficient in comparison to algorithms with individual EA.

Thiazide diuretics, commonly used antihypertensives, may cause QT interval (QT) prolongation, a risk factor for highly fatal and difficult to predict ventricular arrhythmias. We examined whether common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) modified the association between thiazide use and QT or its component parts (QRS interval, JT interval) by performing ancestry-specific, trans-ethnic and cross-phenotype genome-wide analyses of European (66%), African American (15%) and Hispanic (19%) populations (N=78 199), leveraging longitudinal data, incorporating corrected standard errors to account for underestimation of interaction estimate variances and evaluating evidence for pathway enrichment. Although no loci achieved genome-wide significance (P

In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge-based, satellite-related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high-latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.

Sulfonylureas, a commonly used class of medication used to treat type 2 diabetes, have been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Their effects on QT interval duration and related electrocardiographic phenotypes are potential mechanisms for this adverse effect. In 11 ethnically diverse cohorts that included 71 857 European, African-American and Hispanic/Latino ancestry individuals with repeated measures of medication use and electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements, we conducted a pharmacogenomic genome-wide association study of sulfonylurea use and three ECG phenotypes: QT, JT and QRS intervals. In ancestry-specific meta-analyses, eight novel pharmacogenomic loci met the threshold for genome-wide significance (P

Forced vital capacity (FVC), a spirometric measure of pulmonary function, reflects lung volume and is used to diagnose and monitor lung diseases. We performed genome-wide association study meta-analysis of FVC in 52,253 individuals from 26 studies and followed up the top associations in 32,917 additional individuals of European ancestry. We found six new regions associated at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) with FVC in or near EFEMP1, BMP6, MIR129-2-HSD17B12, PRDM11, WWOX and KCNJ2. Two loci previously associated with spirometric measures (GSTCD and PTCH1) were related to FVC. Newly implicated regions were followed up in samples from African-American, Korean, Chinese and Hispanic individuals. We detected transcripts for all six newly implicated genes in human lung tissue. The new loci may inform mechanisms involved in lung development and the pathogenesis of restrictive lung disease.© 2014 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The conventional treatment of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling primarily attributes uncertainty in the input-output representation of the model to uncertainty in the model parameters without explicitly addressing the input, output, and model structural uncertainties. This paper presents a new framework, the Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator (IBUNE), to account for the major uncertainties of hydrologic rainfall-runoff predictions explicitly. IBUNE distinguishes between the various sources of uncertainty including parameter, input, and model structural uncertainty. An input error model in the form of a Gaussian multiplier has been introduced within IBUNE. These multipliers are assumed to be drawn from an identical distribution with an unknown mean and variance which were estimated along with other hydrological model parameters by a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) scheme. IBUNE also includes the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme which is employed to further improve the prediction skill and address model structural uncertainty using multiple model outputs. A series of case studies using three rainfall-runoff models to predict the streamflow in the Leaf River basin, Mississippi, are used to examine the necessity and usefulness of this technique. The results suggest that ignoring either input forcings error or model structural uncertainty will lead to unrealistic model simulations and incorrect uncertainty bounds. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

This paper examines several multimodel combination techniques that are used for streamflow forecasting: the simple model average (SMA), the multimodel superensemble (MMSE), modified multimodel superensemble (M3SE), and the weighted average method (WAM). These model combination techniques were evaluated using the results from the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP), an international project sponsored by the National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). All of the multimodel combination results were obtained using uncalibrated DMIP model simulations and were compared against the best-uncalibrated as well as the best-calibrated individual model results. The purpose of this study is to understand how different combination techniques affect the accuracy levels of the multimodel simulations. This study revealed that the multimodel simulations obtained from uncalibrated single-model simulations are generally better than any single-member model simulations, even the best-calibrated single-model simulations. Furthermore, more sophisticated multimodel combination techniques that incorporated bias correction step work better than simple multimodel average simulations or multimodel simulations without bias correction. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrologic models and in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves three major steps: data preparation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, and demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrologic basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include more basins in all parts of the world. A number of international MOPEX workshops have been convened to bring together interested hydrologists and land surface modelers from all over world to exchange knowledge and experience in developing a priori parameter estimation techniques. This paper describes the results from the second and third MOPEX workshops. The specific objective of these workshops is to examine the state of a priori parameter estimation techniques and how they can be potentially improved with observations from well-monitored hydrologic basins. Participants of the second and third MOPEX workshops were provided with data from 12 basins in the southeastern US and were asked to carry out a series of numerical experiments using a priori parameters as well as calibrated parameters developed for their respective hydrologic models. Different modeling groups carried out all the required experiments independently using eight different models, and the results from these models have been assembled for analysis in this paper. This paper presents an overview of the MOPEX experiment and its design. The main experimental results are analyzed. A key finding is that existing a priori parameter estimation procedures are problematic and need improvement. Significant improvement of these procedures may be achieved through model calibration of well-monitored hydrologic basins. This paper concludes with a discussion of the lessons learned, and points out further work and future strategy. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2(d) experiment at Valdai, Russia, offers a unique opportunity to evaluate land surface schemes, especially snow and frozen soil parameterizations. Here, the ability of the 21 schemes that participated in the experiment to correctly simulate the thermal and hydrological properties of the soil on several different timescales was examined. Using observed vertical profiles of soil temperature and soil moisture, the impact of frozen soil schemes in the land surface models on the soil temperature and soil moisture simulations was evaluated. It was found that when soil-water freezing is explicitly included in a model, it improves the simulation of soil temperature and its variability at seasonal and interannual scales. Although change of thermal conductivity of the soil also affects soil temperature simulation, this effect is rather weak. The impact of frozen soil on soil moisture is inconclusive in this experiment due to the particular climate at Valdai, where the top 1 m of soil is very close to saturation during winter and the range for soil moisture changes at the time of snowmelt is very limited. The results also imply that inclusion of explicit snow processes in the models would contribute to substantially improved simulations. More sophisticated snow models based on snow physics tend to produce better snow simulations, especially of snow ablation. Hysteresis of snow-cover fraction as a function of snow depth is observed at the catchment but not in any of the models.

The Project for the Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) aims to improve understanding and modeling of land surface processes. PILPS phase 2(d) uses a set of meteorological and hydrological data spanning 18 yr (1966-83) from a grassland catchment at the Valdai water-balance research site in Russia. A suite of stand-alone simulations is performed by 21 land surface schemes (LSSs) to explore the LSSs' sensitivity to downward longwave radiative forcing, timescales of simulated hydrologic variability, and biases resulting from single-year simulations that use recursive spinup. These simulations are the first in PILPS to investigate the performance of LSSs at a site with a well-defined seasonal snow cover and frozen soil. Considerable model scatter for the control simulations exists. However, nearly all the LSS scatter in simulated root-zone soil moisture is contained within the spatial variability observed inside the catchment. In addition, all models show a considerable sensitivity to longwave forcing for the simulation of the snowpack, which during the spring melt affects runoff, meltwater infiltration, and subsequent evapotranspiration. A greater sensitivity of the ablation, compared to the accumulation, of the winter snowpaek to the choice of snow parameterization is found. Sensitivity simulations starting at prescribed conditions with no spinup demonstrate that the treatment of frozen soil (moisture) processes can affect the long-term variability of the models. The single-year recursive runs show large biases, compared to the corresponding year of the control run, that can persist through the entire year and underscore the importance of performing multiyear simulations.

The water-balance components of 16 Soil-Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) schemes were evaluated by comparing predicted and observed streamflow, predicted evapotranspiration and evapotranspiration inferred from an atmospheric moisture budget analysis, and soil moisture storage changes for a seven-year period (1980-1986) using data from the Red-Arkansas River basins of the Southern Great Plains of the USA. The evaluations support the following suggestions: (a) The mean annual runoff of all models follows, at least generally, the strong climatic East-West gradient of precipitation, although most models predict too much runoff in the dry part of the basin. (b) The mean monthly storage change tends to be underestimated, even though all models capture reasonably well the seasonality of the evapotranspiration. (c) The wide range of conceptualizations used for generation of surface and subsurface runoff strongly affect runoff generation on seasonal, and shorter, time scales. Model responses to summer precipitation ranged from almost no summer runoff (one model) to the (more common) situation of persistent overprediction of summer runoff, especially in the driest part of the basin. (d) All models tended to underpredict evapotranspiration in summer and overpredict in winter. (e) Model-derived mean seasonal cycles of changes in soil moisture storage are qualitatively similar to those inferred from observations, but most models do not predict the decrease in April soil moisture storage and the increase in October that is inferred from observations.

The energy components of sixteen Soil-Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) schemes were analyzed and intercompared using 10 years of surface meteorological and radiative forcing data from the Red-Arkansas River basin in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Comparisons of simulated surface energy fluxes among models showed that the net radiation and surface temperature generally had the best agreement among the schemes. On an average (annual and monthly) basis, the estimated latent heat fluxes agreed (to within approximate estimation errors) with the latent heat fluxes derived from a radiosonde-based atmospheric budget method for slightly more than half of the schemes. The sensible heat fluxes had larger differences among the schemes than did the latent heat fluxes, and the model-simulated ground heat fluxes had large variations among the schemes. The spatial patterns of the model-computed net radiation and surface temperature were generally similar among the schemes, and appear reasonable and consistent with observations of related variables, such as surface air temperature. The spatial mean patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes were less similar than for net radiation, and the spatial patterns of the ground heat flux vary greatly among the 16 schemes. Generally, there is less similarity among the models in the temporal (interannual) variability of surface fluxes and temperature than there is in the mean fields, even for schemes with similar mean fields.

Sixteen land-surface schemes participating in the project for the Intercomparison of Land-surface Schemes (PILPS) Phase 2(c) were run using 10 years (1979-1988) of forcing data for the Red-Arkansas River basins in the Southern Great Plains region of the United States. Forcing data (precipitation, incoming radiation and surface meteorology) and land-surface characteristics (soil and vegetation parameters) were provided to each of the participating schemes. Two groups of runs are presented. (1) Calibration-validation runs, using data from six small catchments distributed across the modeling domain. These runs were designed to test the ability of the schemes to transfer information about model parameters to other catchments and to the computational grid boxes. (2) Base-runs, using data for 1979-1988, designed to evaluate the ability of the schemes to reproduce measured energy and water fluxes over multiple seasonal cycles across a climatically diverse, continental-scale basin. All schemes completed the base-runs but five schemes chose not to calibrate. Observational data (from 1980-1986) including daily river flows and monthly basin total evaporation estimated through an atmospheric budget analysis, were used to evaluate model performance. In general, the results are consistent with earlier PILPS experiments in terms of differences among models in predicted water and energy fluxes. The mean annual net radiation varied between 80 and 105 W m-2 (excluding one model). The mean annual Bowen ratio varied from 0.52 to 1.73 (also excluding one model) as compared to the data-estimated value of 0.92. The run-off ratios varied from a low of 0.02 to a high of 0.41, as compared to an observed value of 0.15. In general, those schemes that did not calibrate performed worse, not only on the validation catchments, but also at the scale of the entire modeling domain. This suggests that further PILPS experiments on the value of calibration need to be carried out.