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Revealing the long-term development trajectory and peak scenarios of the urban residential building sector is crucial for formulating targeted emission reduction strategies and contributing to achieving the "Dual carbon" target. Given that, significant variables affecting carbon emissions from urban residential buildings (URBCE) at both macro and end-use building levels are identified in this study. Furthermore, an innovative dynamic simulation model is developed by integrating the Monte Carlo simulation model with the Kaya identity model, taking into account the uncertainties of the variables. Subsequently, the long-term evolution trajectories, potential emission peaks, and peak time of the URBCE close to 2060 in China's hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) zone are simulated. Results indicate that URBCE is expected to reach its peak of 272.43 Mt CO 2 in 2040 under the baseline scenario. Through the dynamic simulation, the probable peak time of energy consumption in the HSCW zone is 2044 (±1.85), with a peak of 145.42 (±6.91) Mtce, and the possible peak time of carbon emissions is probably 2039 (±1.60), with a peak of 271.93 (±13.40) Mt CO 2. According to dynamic sensitivity analysis, carbon emission factor, per capita residential space, and heating energy intensity can promote the peak size and timing. These findings lay a robust foundation for the formulation of regionally specific carbon reduction targets and initiatives. Dynamic simulation results of peaking time and peak value of URBEC and URBCE. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon mitigation effectiveness in the building sector profoundly determines the achievement of the "Dual carbon" target. However, the timetable and roadmap for the building sector to achieve such a target are still lacking. This study constructs a STIRPAT-PLS model framework to clarify the impact of the key factors from various dimensions on building carbon emissions across sub-sectors. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is established and applied in China to explore the dynamic evolutionary paths, and the timetable and roadmap are ultimately formulated. The results show that building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). Rural residential buildings will peak earliest in 2026 (± 1), followed by urban residential and commercial buildings: in 2036 (± 2) and 2038 (± 1). Achieving carbon neutrality will require the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. The remaining 0.56–0.81 Gt CO 2 by 2060 will be offset by negative carbon technologies. Dynamic sensitivity analysis shows that building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks, and population and building floor space per capita markedly impact the peaking times. This study can promote the development of the theory and model for carbon emissions prediction. It can also offer a scientific basis for governments to set effective carbon-reduction targets and paths. [Display omitted] • Constructing a STIRPAT-PLS model to clarify the impact of critical factors on building carbon emissions. • Establishing a dynamic scenario simulation model by combining the Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis. • Building sector will probably peak at 2.99 (± 0.09) Gt CO 2 in 2036 (± 1). • Achieving carbon neutrality requires the building sector to peak its carbon emissions in 2026 with 2.16–2.40 Gt CO 2. • Building floor space per capita and energy intensity significantly promote the emission peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Revealing the regional differences and drivers of provincial urban residential building sector carbon emissions (URBCE) is critical for regional collaborative emission reduction in achieving the "Dural carbon" targets. This study tries to innovatively construct a framework for the exploration of the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of Chinese URBCE in 30 provinces during 2000–2019, combining kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis and temporal-spatial LMDI model. Results indicate that: (1) A vast majority of regions have undergone a sharp growth in URBCE, with the regional gap of URBCE gradually widening. (2) Besides, the spatial pattern of regional URBCE is basically stable, with High-High distributed in the Northeast and North China, and Low-Low concentrated in the Southwest. (3) Urban residential building floor space per capita, population, and urbanization are promotive driving forces, while carbon intensity and energy intensity are increasingly inhibiting. This study can provide policymakers a better understanding of URBCE and help them develop regionally-specific emission reduction strategies. Additionally, it offers fresh perspective on how to research the spatiotemporal disparities of carbon emissions in other sectors and nations, and could be of international significance. [Display omitted] • Establishes a framework to explore spatiotemporal patterns of provincial URBCE. • Investigates the spatial characteristics and dynamic evolution of regional URBCE. • Adopts temporal-spatial LMDI model to uncover the driving mechanism on URBCE. • A vast majority of regions have seen a sharp growth of URBCE during 2000–2019. • Floor space per capita, population, and urbanization are promotive drivers to the URBCE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]