Search

Background: Most of the mathematical modeling studies on COVID-19 transmission are based on continuous deterministic models that do not consider the characteristics of social network. Methods: The effect of contact tracing on mitigating COVID-19, and other infectious diseases in general, is studied in a small-world network. This network has its advantages over the commonly used continuous deterministic mathematical models in that the characteristics of social networks can be properly incorporated. Results: Simulation results show that for the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, contact tracing can play an important role to reduce and delay the peak daily new cases. New cases can be reduced by using symptom onset to isolate tracked individuals, but the benefit can be greatly enhanced by testing asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals on the 6th to 8th day of infection. For the delta variant, or other variants of much higher infectivity, contact tracing alone cannot significantly lower the number of daily new cases but is able to delay the peaks greatly, thus affording more time to explore and implement pharmaceutical interventions. Conclusions: Contact tracing can be a very powerful tool to combat COVID-19 caused by the original strain or any variant of SARS-CoV-2. In order to make contact tracing effective, every effort is needed to expand the pool of contact tracing and provide all necessary support to the self-quarantined.

Air pollution is a serious concern to people who want to engage in physical activities to improve and maintain their health. However, air quality data collected at the nearest monitoring site may not be the best source of information because the data may be incomplete (e.g., some pollutants are not monitored) or not representative. This paper puts forward a method that uses air quality data from a large area to derive a diurnal profile of air quality variation for that area and identify the time window in which the air quality is typically the best during a day. If people exercise in that time window then they can minimize their exposure to air pollution. Three years' worth of air quality data in five California counties were analyzed to identify the general pattern of diurnal variation of air quality. The analysis shows the pattern of air quality variation is very similar among those five counties which represent diverse geographical and meteorological conditions. The analysis further reveals that in California air quality is generally the best in early mornings; as such, people should exercise in the early morning if their daily schedule allows it. A similar analysis can be performed for other areas to help people choose the best time window to exercise.