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The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) allows the assessment of the representation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in climate models. While CMIP Phase 6 models display a large spread in AMOC strength, the multi-model mean strength agrees reasonably well with observed estimates from RAPID1, but this does not hold for the AMOC's various components. In CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6), the present-day AMOC is characterized by a lack of lower North Atlantic Deep Water (lNADW) due to the small scale of Greenland–Iceland–Scotland Ridge overflow and too much mixing. This is compensated for by increased recirculation in the subtropical gyre and more Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Deep-water circulation is dominated by a distinct deep western boundary current (DWBC) with minor interior recirculation compared with observations. The future decline in the AMOC of 7 Sv by 2100 under a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) emission scenario is associated with decreased northward western boundary current transport in combination with reduced southward flow of upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW). In CMIP6, wind stress curl decreases with time by 14 % so that wind-driven thermocline recirculation in the subtropical gyre is reduced by 4 Sv (17 %) by 2100. The reduction in western boundary current transport of 11 Sv is more than the decrease in wind-driven gyre transport, indicating a decrease over time in the component of the Gulf Stream originating from the South Atlantic.

We construct an upper ocean (0–1000 m) North Atlantic heat budget (26°–67°N) for the period 1950–2020 using multiple observational datasets and an eddy-permitting global ocean model. On multidecadal time scales, ocean heat transport convergence controls ocean heat content (OHC) tendency in most regions of the North Atlantic with little role for diffusive processes. In the subpolar North Atlantic (45°–67°N), heat transport convergence is explained by geostrophic currents, whereas ageostrophic currents make a significant contribution in the subtropics (26°–45°N). The geostrophic contribution in all regions is dominated by anomalous advection across the time-mean temperature gradient although other processes make a significant contribution, particularly in the subtropics. The time scale and spatial distribution of the anomalous geostrophic currents are consistent with a simple model of basin-scale thermal Rossby waves propagating westward/northwestward in the subpolar gyre, and multidecadal variations in regional OHC are explained by geostrophic currents periodically coming into alignment with the mean temperature gradient as the Rossby wave passes through. The global ocean model simulation shows that multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are synchronized with the ocean heat transport convergence consistent with modulation of the west–east pressure gradient by the propagating Rossby wave.

Future sea-level change is characterized by both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainties. Effective communication of both types of uncertainty is a key challenge in translating sea-level science to inform long-term coastal planning. Scientific assessments play a key role in the translation process and have taken diverse approaches to communicating sea-level projection uncertainty. Here we review how past IPCC and regional assessments have presented sea-level projection uncertainty, how IPCC presentations have been interpreted by regional assessments and how regional assessments and policy guidance simplify projections for practical use. This information influenced the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report presentation of quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty, with the goal of preserving both elements as projections are adapted for regional application

De Zeespiegelmonitor stelt jaarlijks de stand van de zeespiegel vast van de zes Nederlandse hoofdgetijdenstations (Delfzijl, Harlingen, Den Helder, IJmuiden, Hoek van Holland en Vlissingen), die continu de waterstand vastleggen/meten. Iedere vier jaar wordt gerapporteerd over de waarnemingen en de onderzoeksresultaten. Dit is de derde rapportage.

Enhanced winter precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea at times of minimum precession and maximum obliquity, that is, times of enhanced insolation seasonality, could provide freshwater required to form orbitally paced sedimentary cycles across the Mediterranean, offering a possible alternative to monsoonal runoff. We investigate the sources of the enhanced winter precipitation, by applying a moisture tracking model on the results of idealized orbital extreme experiments with a state-of-the-art climate model. Precession and obliquity enhance precipitation in fall and winter. Our study shows that the source of enhanced precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea differs during the winter half-year. In fall, the majority of the precession-induced precipitation increase originates from the Mediterranean itself. However, in late winter, the increase can be attributed to enhanced moisture advection from the Atlantic. This agrees with changes in evaporation and air-sea temperature differences over the Mediterranean. The obliquity-induced precipitation increase shows much less differences, with an equal contribution of local and Atlantic sources. The mechanism behind the Atlantic source of moisture, particularly important in late winter for precession-induced precipitation changes, is related to a weakened Azores High and slightly higher surface pressure over North Africa. The resulting anomalous circulation patterns generate enhanced Atlantic moisture transport toward the Mediterranean. These mechanisms coincide with weaker storm track activity over the North Atlantic, opposite to previous studies that often attribute enhanced Mediterranean winter precipitation to a southward shift and intensification of the Atlantic storm track. We thus provide an alternative mechanism for Atlantic sources of orbitally paced Mediterranean precipitation changes., Water Resources

The “signal-to-noise paradox” implies that climate models are better at predicting observations than themselves. Here, it is shown that this apparent paradox is expected when the relative level of predicted signal is weaker in models than in observations. In the presence of model error, the paradox only occurs in the range of small signal-to-noise ratio of the model, occurring for even smaller model signal-to-noise ratio with increasing model error. This paradox is always a signature of the prediction unreliability. Applying this concept to noninitialized simulations of Surface Atmospheric Temperature (SAT) of the CMIP5 database, under the assumption that prediction skill is associated with persistence, shows that global mean SAT is marginally less persistent in models than in observations. However, at a local scale, the analysis suggests that ∼70% of the globe exhibits the signal-to-noise paradox for local SAT interannual forecasts and that the Signal-to-Noise Paradox occurs especially over the oceans.

During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed.

The “signal‐to‐noise paradox” implies that climate models are better at predicting observations than themselves. Here, it is shown that this apparent paradox is expected when the relative level of predicted signal is weaker in models than in observations. In the presence of model error, the paradox only occurs in the range of small signal‐to‐noise ratio of the model, occurring for even smaller model signal‐to‐noise ratio with increasing model error. This paradox is always a signature of the prediction unreliability. Applying this concept to noninitialized simulations of Surface Atmospheric Temperature (SAT) of the CMIP5 database, under the assumption that prediction skill is associated with persistence, shows that global mean SAT is marginally less persistent in models than in observations. However, at a local scale, the analysis suggests that ∼70% of the globe exhibits the signal‐to‐noise paradox for local SAT interannual forecasts and that the Signal‐to‐Noise Paradox occurs especially over the oceans.

During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed.

The notion that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can have more than one stable equilibrium emerged in the 1980s as a powerful hypothesis to explain rapid climate variability during the Pleistocene. Ever since, the idea that a temporary perturbation of the AMOC—or a permanent change in its forcing—could trigger an irreversible collapse has remained a reason for concern. Here we review literature on the equilibrium stability of the AMOC and present a synthesis that puts our understanding of past and future AMOC behavior in a unifying framework. This framework is based on concepts from Dynamical Systems Theory, which has proven to be an important tool in interpreting a wide range of model behavior. We conclude that it cannot be ruled out that the AMOC in our current climate is in, or close to, a regime of multiple equilibria. But there is considerable uncertainty in the location of stability thresholds with respect to our current climate state, so we have no credible indications of where our present‐day AMOC is located with respect to thresholds. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge and proposing possible ways forward to address these gaps.

This report was written at the request of Dirk Jan Sloot (Ministerie van Infrastructuur en Waterstaat, Directoraat-Generaal Water en Bodem). It aims at helping non-specialists understand recent the sea level rise science to make better decisions. The central question we try to answer is: why is sea level not rising at the same pace everywhere around the globe? To anwser this question we focus on explaining the basic physical processes at play in sea level rise and which ones dominate total sea level at different length and time scale. This report could also serve as a entry point into the specialised literature that is cited. It forms the basis for a presentation at the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.

Recently, multidecadal variability in the Southern Ocean has been found in a strongly eddying global ocean circulation model. In this paper, we study the Lorenz energy cycle of this so-called Southern Ocean Mode (SOM). The Lorenz energy cycle analysis provides details on the energy pathways associated with the SOM. It shows that ocean eddies and the baroclinic energy pathway together with variations in the kinetic energy input by the wind are crucial aspects of the variability. It is also shown how convective mixing, which is induced by the SOM in particular in the Weddell Gyre, is responsible for the large-scale multidecadal variability in Antarctic Bottom Water and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

We investigate the characteristics of the sinking of dense waters in the North Atlantic Ocean that constitute the downwelling limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as simulated by two global ocean models: an eddy-permitting model at 1/4° resolution and its coarser 1° counterpart. In line with simple geostrophic considerations, it is shown that the sinking predominantly occurs in a narrow region close to the continental boundary in both model simulations. That is, the regions where convection is deepest do not coincide with regions where most dense waters sink. The amount of near-boundary sinking that occurs varies regionally. For the 1/4° resolution model, these variations are in quantitative agreement with a relation based on geostrophy and a thermodynamic balance between buoyancy loss and alongshore advection of density, which links the amount of sinking to changes in density along the edge of the North Atlantic Ocean. In the 1° model, the amount and location of sinking appears not to be governed by this simple relation, possibly due to the large impact of overflows and nonnegligible cross-shore density advection. If this poor representation of the processes governing the sinking of dense waters in the North Atlantic Ocean is a generic feature of such low-resolution models, the response of the AMOC to changes in climate simulated by this type of models needs to be evaluated with care., Environmental Fluid Mechanics

The global surface warming started to slow down at the beginning of the 21st century which is recognized as a “hiatus”. Observation-based and model-based analyses have proposed different perspectives to explain where the heat goes and the underlying mechanisms, such as a reduction in radiative forcing or a heat sequestration in deep oceans. This study using the ocean hindcast simulations shows that the increased heat was mostly stored in upper 700 m in global oceans. The Atlantic and the Pacific have the largest contributions in heat rearrangement. In Pacific, it occurred mainly in the upper 700 m layer, dominated by a La Niña pattern in the tropical Pacific during the hiatus; while in the Atlantic, the increased heat has penetrated to 2500 m and was most prominent in the tropical area and the subpolar area. In the subpolar North Atlantic, the salinity anomaly corresponded well with the ocean heat content (OHC) anomaly. The positive salinity/OHC anomaly indicated a weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the hiatus, and the formation/melting of sea ice also corresponded well with salinity variations.

The Irminger Current, a branch of the North Atlantic Current, carries warm and saline waters poleward in the subpolar gyre and as such contributes to the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Previous estimates about its volume transport and variability have been mostly based on summer hydrographic sections in combination with satellite data. Presented here are the first year-round results from a full-depth mooring array located on the west side of the Reykjanes Ridge between 2014 and 2015. These results are mainly compared with hydrographic and velocity data from summers 2014 and 2015 and shipboard measurements from the early 1990s and 2000s, where the shift in atmospheric forcing resembles that of winter 2014-2015. Differences in the shape and strength of the Irminger Current are large during this one-year period. The IC is highly variable on scales varying from 7 to 35 days. Changes in the velocity field during the winter state are distinct and occur concurrently with record deep convection in the Irminger Gyre. The spatial resolution of the moorings is found to be likely too coarse to capture the full transport of the Irminger Current. Additional data from oceanic moorings from a French campaign will help to resolve this in the future. These first year-round results show that the Irminger Current is much more variable than earlier thought, particularly during winter.

Shifts between on and off states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have been associated with past abrupt climate change, supported by the bistability of the AMOC found in many older, coarser resolution, ocean and climate models. However, as coupled climate models evolved in complexity a stable AMOC off state no longer seemed supported. Here we show that a current-generation, eddy-permitting climate model has an AMOC off state that remains stable for the 450-year duration of the model integration. Ocean eddies modify the overall freshwater balance, allowing for stronger northward salt transport by the AMOC compared with previous, non eddy-permitting models. As a result, the salinification of the subtropical North Atlantic, due to a southward shift of the intertropical rain belt, is counteracted by the reduced salt transport of the collapsed AMOC. The reduced salinification of the subtropical North Atlantic allows for an anomalous northward freshwater transport into the subpolar North Atlantic dominated by the gyre component. Combining the anomalous northward freshwater transport with the freshening due to reduced evaporation in this region helps stabilise the AMOC off state.

The impact of initial conditions relative to external forcings in decadal integrations from an ensemble of state-of-the-art prediction models has been assessed using specifically designed sensitivity experiments (SWAP experiments). They consist of two sets of 10-yr-long ensemble hindcasts for two initial dates in 1965 and 1995 using either the external forcings from the “correct” decades or swapping the forcings between the two decades. By comparing the two sets of integrations, the impact of external forcing versus initial conditions on the predictability over multiannual time scales was estimated as the function of lead time of the hindcast. It was found that over time scales longer than about 1 yr, the predictability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a global scale arises mainly from the external forcing. However, the correct initialization has a longer impact on SST predictability over specific regions such as the North Atlantic, the northwestern Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. The impact of initialization is even longer and extends to wider regions when below-surface ocean variables are considered. For the western and eastern tropical Atlantic, the impact of initialization for the 700-m heat content (HTC700) extends to as much as 9 years for some of the models considered. In all models the impact of initial conditions on the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is dominant for the first 5 years.

There is strong proxy and model evidence of precession- and obliquity-induced changes in the freshwater budget over the Mediterranean Sea and its borderlands, yet explanations for these changes vary greatly. We investigate the separate precession and obliquity forcing of the freshwater budget over the Mediterranean using a high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth. At times of enhanced insolation seasonality, i.e. minimum precession and maximum obliquity, the area was wetter and the Mediterranean Sea surface was less saline. The latter has been attributed to increased runoff from the south as a consequence of a strengthened North African monsoon, as well as to increased precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea itself. Our results show that both mechanisms play a role in changing the freshwater budget. Increased monsoon runoff occurs in summer during times of enhanced insolation seasonality, especially minimum precession, while increased precipitation is important in winter for both precession and obliquity. We relate changes in winter precipitation to changes in the air-sea temperature difference and subsequently, convective precipitation. The freshening in the minimum precession and maximum obliquity experiments has a strong effect on Mediterranean sea surface salinity and mixed layer depth, thereby likely influencing deep sea circulation and sedimentation at the ocean bottom.