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An 'event' tree technique was used alongside conventional methods for structuring and reporting an audit of ambulance services in Lancashire, UK, for patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and cases of cardiac arrest. The audit covered 4,100 patients attended by ambulance crews. Cross tabulations showed that audit targets were not achieved for recording heart rhythms in non-arrest cases, administering aspirin and intravenous cannulation. The event tree, linked electronically with the audit database, demonstrated explicitly that only one-third of non-arrest patients received all three procedures. With cardiac arrests, the event tree showed that survival rates to hospital were similar for patients in ventricular fibrillation who were defibrillated regardless of whether or not they received anti-arrhythmic drugs. Interpretation of their performance levels is facilitated by the event-tree technique that allows relationships between clinical procedures and outcomes of ambulance journeys to be displayed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An advisory group for the NHS research and development (R&D) programme recommended in 1993 that the impact of clinical guidelines at the interface between primary and secondary care should be a research priority area. In 1994, a systematic review of 91 published evaluations of implementing clinical guidelines identified only seven UK general practice studies. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Comparisons of parental satisfaction were made after specialist paediatric cardiology consultations were conducted either by conventional face-to-face delivery or telemedicine. Satisfaction statements were rated by 100 parents: 20 who experienced telemedicine; 56 with new children seen in the outreach clinics; 24 with children on review whose next appointment was at the specialist centre. There was general satisfaction with both types of consultations, but significant differences were noted. Those who had videoconferences felt that they had received an explanation about how the specialist advice would be obtained, and that they could see the pictures being discussed clearly. Those who had experienced telemedicine believed that teleconsultations could save them travelling time and money and they found the technical aspects of sound and picture quality acceptable. They were not discomforted by the technology and felt reassured by the consultation with the specialist. However, there was some ambivalence towards the statements suggesting that teleconsultations could take the place of conventional face-to-face consultations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Primary cervical screening uses cytology to detect cancer precursor lesions [cervical intraepithelial neoplasia stage 3 or beyond (CIN3+)]. Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing could add sensitivity as an adjunct to cytology or as a first test, reserving cytology for HPV-positive women. This study addresses the questions: Does the combination of cytology and HPV testing achieve a reduction in incident CIN3+?; Is HPV testing cost-effective in primary cervical screening?; Is its use associated with adverse psychosocial or psychosexual effects?; and How would it perform as an initial screening test followed by cytology for HPV positivity?, Design: ARTISTIC was a randomised trial of cervical cytology versus cervical cytology plus HPV testing, evaluated over two screening rounds, 3 years apart. Round 1 would detect prevalent disease and round 2 a combination of incident and undetected disease from round 1., Setting: Women undergoing routine cervical screening in the NHS programme in Greater Manchester., Participants: In total 24,510 women aged 20-64 years were enrolled between July 2001 and September 2003., Interventions: HPV testing was performed on the liquid-based cytology (LBC) sample obtained at screening. Women were randomised in a ratio of 3:1 to have the HPV test result revealed and acted upon if persistently positive in cytology-negative cases or concealed. A detailed health economic evaluation and a psychosocial and psychosexual assessment were also performed., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was CIN3+ in round 2. Secondary outcomes included an economic assessment and psychosocial effects. A large HPV genotyping study was also conducted., Results: In round 1 there were 313 CIN3+ lesions, representing a prevalence in the revealed and concealed arms of 1.27% and 1.31% respectively (p = 0.81). Round 2 (30-48 months) involved 14,230 (58.1%) of the women screened in round 1 and only 31 CIN3+ were detected; the CIN3 rate was not significantly different between the revealed and concealed arms. A less restrictive definition of round 2 (26-54 months) increased CIN3+ to 45 and CIN3+ incidence in the arms was significantly different (p = 0.05). There was no difference in CIN3+ between the arms when rounds 1 and 2 were combined. Prevalence of high-risk HPV types was age-dependent. Overall prevalence of HPV16/18 increased with severity of dyskaryosis. Mean costs per woman in round 1 were 72 pounds and 56 pounds for the revealed and concealed arms (p < 0.001); an age-adjustment reduced these mean costs to 65 pounds and 52 pounds. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for detecting additional CIN3+ by adding HPV testing to LBC screening in round 1 was 38,771 pounds. Age-adjusted mean cost for LBC primary screening with HPV triage was 39 pounds compared with 48 pounds for HPV primary screening with LBC triage. HPV testing did not appear to cause significant psychosocial distress., Conclusions: Routine HPV testing did not add significantly to the effectiveness of LBC in this study. No significant adverse psychosocial effects were detected. It would not be cost-effective to screen with cytology and HPV combined but HPV testing, as either triage or initial test triaged by cytology, would be cheaper than cytology without HPV testing. LBC would not benefit from combination with HPV; it is highly effective as primary screening but HPV testing has twin advantages of high negative predictive value and automated platforms enabling high throughput. HPV primary screening would require major contraction and reconfiguration of laboratory services. Follow-up continues in ARTISTIC while maintaining concealment for a further 3-year round of screening, which will help in screening protocol development for the post-vaccination era.

Background: Testing for human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is reportedly more sensitive than cytology for the detection of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). The effectiveness of HPV testing in primary cervical screening was assessed in the ARTISTIC trial, which was done over two screening rounds approximately 3 years apart (2001-03 and 2004-07) by comparing liquid-based cytology (LBC) combined with HPV testing against LBC alone., Methods: Women aged 20-64 years who were undergoing routine screening as part of the English National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme in Greater Manchester were randomly assigned (between July, 2001, and September, 2003) in a ratio of 3:1 to either combined LBC and HPV testing in which the results were revealed and acted on, or to combined LBC and HPV testing where the HPV result was concealed from the patient and investigator. The primary outcome was the detection rate of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) in the second screening round, analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN25417821., Findings: There were 24 510 eligible women at entry (18 386 in the revealed group, 6124 in the concealed group). In the first round of screening 233 women (1.27%) in the revealed group had CIN3+, compared with 80 (1.31%) women in the concealed group (odds ratio [OR] 0.97, 95% CI 0.75-1.25; p>0.2). There was an unexpectedly large drop in the proportion of women with CIN3+ between the first and second rounds of screening in both groups, at 0.25% (29 of 11 676) in the revealed group and 0.47% (18 of 3866 women) in the concealed group (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.30-0.96; p=0.042). For both rounds combined, the proportion of women with CIN3+ were 1.51% (revealed) and 1.77% (concealed) (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.67-1.08; p>0.2)., Interpretation: LBC combined with HPV testing resulted in a significantly lower detection rate of CIN3+ in the second round of screening compared with LBC screening alone, but the effect was small. Over the two screening rounds combined, co-testing did not detect a higher rate of CIN3+ or CIN2+ than LBC alone. Potential changes in screening methodology should be assessed over at least two screening rounds., Funding: National Institute of Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Aim: To estimate mean costs of neonatal care for babies with birthweights

Objectives: In 2003, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) advised that liquid based cytology (LBC) should be adopted for cervical screening in England. The aim of this study was to explore the cost implications of implementing the NICE guidance in cytology laboratories. The ThinPrep technology was used as the case study., Methods: An optimization model was developed to analyze options for leasing alternative LBC processing machines with different capacities. Variables entered in the model included: the cost of the contract with the supplier, the laboratory labor cost, and inter-laboratory transport costs. All costs referred to the 2005-06 financial year. A simulation program calculated mileages within laboratory networks. Alternative strategies for contracting by laboratories acting independently and by Quality Assessment Regional Centres (QARC) were analyzed., Results: Centralizing the processing of specimens in "hub and spoke" laboratory networks was the least costly strategy. Total annual costs for England using existing transport links were 14,807,000 UK pounds for 5-year contracts. If all laboratories installed processors, the annual cost for 5-year contracts placed by QARCs was 14,941,000 UK pounds compared with 16,359,000 pounds if the laboratories placed their own contracts. Three-year contracts averaged an additional 1 million UK pounds: 15,912,000 pounds for networks and 17,304,000 pounds for independent laboratory contracts., Conclusions: Deciding on the mode of implementation of a NICE guidance can be challenging for decision makers. These cost minimization appraisal techniques are equally applicable to national screening programs in general and to other health technologies for which there are significant cost implications associated with innovative policy directives.

A district hospital in south-east England used a telecardiology service for fetal cardiac diagnosis alongside an existing arrangement for referring pregnant women directly to perinatal cardiologists in London for detailed fetal echocardiography. Women were identified for referral according to local protocols when having a second trimester anomaly scan. For the telemedicine referrals, the sonographers video-recorded images from the anomaly scans for transmission during monthly videoconferences. The cost of the women's antenatal care was calculated from the specialist assessment until delivery, while family costs were collected in a postal survey. Over 15 months, telemedicine was used in 52 cases, while 24 women were seen in London. The London women were more likely to have had an ultrasound abnormality (29% v 10%, P = 0.047). A telemedicine assessment of 5 min duration was more costly than an examination in London (mean cost per referral of pound206 v pound74, P < 0.001). However, the telecardiology service was cost neutral after 14 days and for the extended period until delivery. Travel costs for London women averaged pound37 compared with pound5.50 for the telemedicine referrals. Telemedicine may be useful to support perinatal cardiologists in the UK whose workloads are expanding in response to improved standards in antenatal ultrasound screening.

Objectives: Pediatric cardiology has an expanding role in fetal and pediatric screening. The aims of this study were to observe how district hospitals use a pediatric telecardiology service, and to compare the costs and outcomes of patients referred to specialists by means of this service or conventionally., Methods: A telemedicine service was set up between a pediatric cardiac center in London and four district hospitals for referrals of second trimester women, newborn babies, and older children. Clinicians in each hospital decided on the role for their service. Clinical events were audited prospectively and costed, and patient surveys were conducted., Results: The hospitals differed in their selection of patient groups for the service. In all, 117 telemedicine patients were compared with 387 patients seen in London or in outreach clinics. Patients selected for telemedicine were generally healthier. For all patients, the mean cost for the initial consultation was 411 UK pounds for tele-referrals and 277 UK pounds for conventional referrals, a nonsignificant difference. Teleconsultations for women and children were significantly more expensive because of technology costs, whereas for babies, ambulance transfers were much more costly. After 6-months follow-up, the difference between referral methods for all patients was nonsignificant (telemedicine, 3,350 UK pounds; conventional referrals, 2,172 UK pounds), and nonsignificant within the patient groups., Conclusions: Telemedicine was perceived by cardiologists, district clinicians, and families as reliable and efficient. The equivocal 6-month cost results indicate that investment in the technology is warranted to enhance pediatric and perinatal cardiology services.

Objective: To compare antenatal and obstetric costs for multiple pregnancy versus singleton pregnancy risk groups and to identify factors driving cost differentials., Design: Observational study over 15 months (2001-02)., Setting: Four district hospitals in southeast England., Population: Consecutive women with multiple pregnancy and singleton women with risk factors for fetal congenital heart disease (CHD) (pregestational diabetes, epilepsy, or family history of CHD) or Down syndrome, and a sample of low-risk singleton women., Methods: Clinical care was audited from the second trimester anomaly scan until postnatal discharge, and the resource items were costed. Multiple regression analysis determined predictors of costs., Main Outcome Measures: NHS mean costs of antenatal and obstetric care for different types of pregnancy., Results: A total of 959 pregnancies were studied. Three percent of 243 women with multiple pregnancy reached 40 weeks of gestation compared with 54-55% of 163 low-risk and 322 Down syndrome risk women and 36% of 231 cardiac risk women. Antenatal costs for cardiac risk (1,153 pounds sterling) and multiple pregnancy (1,048 pounds sterling) were nearly double the costs for other two groups (P < 0.001). As 63% of multiple births were delivered by caesarean section, the obstetric cost for multiple pregnancy (3,393 pounds sterling) was 1,000 pounds sterling greater overall. Pregestational diabetes was the most influential factor driving singleton costs, resulting in similar total costs for multiple pregnancy women (4,442 pounds sterling) and for women with diabetes (4,877 pounds sterling)., Conclusions: Our analyses confirm that multiple pregnancies are substantially more costly than most singleton pregnancies. Identifying women with diabetes as equally costly is pertinent because of the findings of the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health that standards of maternal care for diabetics often are inadequate.

Objective: The British National Service Framework (NSF) for heart disease commended the 'Utstein style' for auditing out-of-hospital cardiac arrests. The NSF also set standards for pre-hospital treatment and response times. To increase the flexibility of Utstein, an 'event tree' technique is proposed as an audit tool. Event trees consist of nodes and branches on which numbers, percentages or probability values are entered., Methods: Using the London Ambulance Service's (LAS) 1997 database on 3,759 out-of-hospital cardiac arrests, 2,772 arrests witnessed by lay bystanders or unwitnessed were analysed focusing on bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (BCPR) and response times., Results: The Utstein template showed that witnessed arrests in ventricular fibrillation (VF) or ventricular tachycardia (VT) who had received BCPR achieved a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) in the field significantly more often than non-BCPR recipients-26 versus 16% (P=0.006). But the likelihood of being admitted to a hospital bed, and discharged alive, was only marginally better for BCPR recipients. To examine the influence of BCPR on the presenting rhythm an event tree showed that in 48% of witnessed BCPR cases the presenting rhythm was VF/VT, whereas, for witnessed non-BCPR cases, 27% were in VF/VT (P<0.0001). With unwitnessed arrests, 31% of BCPR cases were in VF/VT compared with 18% for non-BCPR cases (P<0.0001). Call to scene time was less than 8 min for 66% of all VF/VT arrests., Conclusion: The event trees, when combined with the Utstein template, demonstrated the importance of examining comprehensively datasets for both witnessed and unwitnessed cardiac arrests when monitoring performance standards. The analyses also emphasised the relevance of community programmes in Greater London for teaching basic life saving skills.

Objectives: To examine whether, from a National Health Service (NHS) and local authority social services' viewpoint, a hospital-at-home service was cost saving compared with conventional inpatient care., Methods: The subjects of this part-retrospective and part-prospective cost analysis were 51 elderly medical and orthopaedic surgical patients assessed at Hillingdon Hospital, West London, as being suitable for hospital-at-home care. Thirty patients received hospital-at-home care, provided for up to 14 days, while 21 patients remained in hospital and received standard inpatient care. All direct costs to the NHS hospital, community health services' provider and social services' department during the initial episode of care and the three months after discharge were collected for each group of patients. Costs and clinical event data were entered in a discrete event simulation model which generated baseline results. Uncertainty surrounding the model's parameters was explored using sensitivity analysis., Results: The baseline simulation performed with 1000 patients in each group showed the mean cost per patient for hospital-at-home care and three-month follow-up to be around three-fifths the mean cost per patient of inpatient care and follow-up. Most of the excess cost in the inpatient group was attributable to the initial period of hospitalisation. Under all assumptions used in the sensitivity analysis, the hospital-at-home service was less costly., Conclusions: For elderly patients assessed as needing no more than 14 days of hospital care, hospital-at-home care is cost saving to health and social care agencies when compared with conventional inpatient care.

The paper discusses how a decision analytic framework has been used by an English health authority in relation to the commissioning of ambulance cardiac services. Strategies for the management by ambulance personnel of victims of cardiac arrest and persons with acute chest pain of cardiac origin were modelled in a decision-event tree, and a bibliographic database established. The international research literature prior to 1997 was searched in order to derive probability values for the tree. However, after checking whether the subgroupings of results in the papers were in accordance with the variables in the tree, the number of useful papers on acute chest pain was found to be only two. In the almost complete absence of information--even from small observational studies--on the management of the great majority of patients with cardiac symptoms transported by ambulance, the local ambulance service and the main providers of hospital services in the district are now collaborating in field studies of cardiac care in order to improve the inputs into the model.

Background: Shortly before the National Health Service (NHS) research and development (R&D) strategy was launched in April 1991, the Department of Health commissioned a study to collect information on current health services research and related work in the United Kingdom. The term 'health services research' was interpreted as research that could usefully inform the contracting arrangements in the reformed NHS., Methods: The information was collected from funding agencies, in particular the UK health departments, the Medical Research Council and medical research charities; academic departments and research units and centres; NHS authorities; and research registers and directories. A total of 6185 projects that were either in progress or completed between January 1990 and mid-1992 were identified., Results: Forty-three per cent of projects were disease related; 33 per cent assessed health technologies. Patterns were evident in the database. Sixty-three per cent of the projects on diseases were covered by five categories: cancer, the largest category with a quarter of the disease projects; perinatal medicine; cardiovascular disease and stroke; HIV and AIDS; and mental illness. Conditions that cause severe discomfort but are not life threatening were poorly represented. Clinical trials formed 25 per cent of the health technology projects, but only 6 per cent of the trials assessed surgical procedures. Less than 10 per cent of all health technology projects contained a costing component. In England, 34 per cent of projects with identified funding sources were supported by medical charities and other independent bodies, 31 per cent by NHS authorities, 20 per cent by the Department of Health and 15 per cent by the research councils., Conclusion: This collection of information represents a 'snapshot' of the scope of health services research against which it will be possible to measure the changes promoted by the NHS R&D programme.