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Stated preference studies in which information on the willingness to trade-off between the benefits and harms of medicines is elicited from patients or other stakeholders are becoming increasingly mainstream. Such trade-offs can mathematically be represented by a weighted additive function, with the weights, whose ratios determine how much an individual is willing to trade-off between the treatment attributes, being the response vector for the statistical analysis. One way of eliciting trade-off information is through multi-dimensional thresholding (MDT), which is a bisection-based approach that results in increasingly tight bounds on the values of the weights ratios. While MDT is cognitively less demanding than other, more direct elicitation methods, its use complicates the statistical analysis as it results in weights data that are region censored. In this article, we present a simulated maximum likelihood (SML) procedure for fitting a Dirichlet population model directly to the region-censored weights data and perform a series of computational experiments to compare the proposed SML procedure to a naive approach in which a Dirichlet distribution is fitted to the centroids of the weights boundaries obtained with MDT. The results indicate that the SML procedure consistently outperformed the centroid-based approach, with the centroid-based approach requiring three bisection steps per trade-off to achieve a similar precision as the SML procedure with one bisection step per trade-off. Using the newly proposed SML procedure, MDT can be applied with smaller sample sizes or with fewer questions compared to the more naive centroid-based approach that was applied in previous applications of MDT.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to analyze survival and incidence of Fontan completion of patients with single-ventricle and concomitant unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect. METHODS: Data from 4 Dutch and 3 Belgian institutional databases were retrospectively collected. A total of 151 patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect were selected; 36 patients underwent an atrioventricular valve procedure (valve surgery group). End points were survival, incidence of Fontan completion, and freedom from atrioventricular valve reoperation. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 13.4 years. Cumulative survival was 71.2%, 70%, and 68.5% at 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. An atrioventricular valve procedure was not a risk factor for mortality. Patients with moderate-severe or severe atrioventricular valve regurgitation at echocardiographic follow-up had a significantly worse 15-year survival (58.3%) compared with patients with no or mild regurgitation (89.2%) and patients with moderate regurgitation (88.6%) (P = .033). Cumulative incidence of Fontan completion was 56.5%, 71%, and 77.6% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. An atrioventricular valve procedure was not associated with the incidence of Fontan completion. In the valve surgery group, freedom from atrioventricular valve reoperation was 85.7% at 1 year and 52.6% at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term survival and incidence of Fontan completion in our study were better than previously described for patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect. A concomitant atrioventricular valve procedure did not increase the mortality rate or decrease the incidence of Fontan completion, whereas patients with moderate-severe or severe valve regurgitation at follow-up had a worse survival. Therefore, in patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect when atrioventricular valve regurgitation exceeds a moderate degree, the atrioventricular valve should be repaired. ispartof: JOURNAL OF THORACIC AND CARDIOVASCULAR SURGERY vol:163 issue:3 pages:1166-1175 ispartof: location:United States status: published

RATIONALE: There is currently no data supporting specific dosing and weaning strategies for parental prostanoid therapy in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH).OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical practice of intravenous (IV) or subcutaneous (SC) prostanoid therapy in pediatric PAH and identify dosing strategies associated with favorable outcome.METHODS: From an international multicenter cohort of 275 children with PAH, 98 patients that received IV/SC prostanoid therapy were retrospectively analyzed.RESULTS: IV/SC prostanoids were given as monotherapy (20%), or combined with other PAH-targeted drugs as dual (46%) or triple therapy (34%). The median time-averaged dose was 37 ng/kg/min, ranging 2-136 ng/kg/min. During follow up, IV/SC prostanoids were discontinued and transitioned to oral or inhaled PAH-targeted therapies in 29 patients. Time-dependent ROC analyses showed specific hemodynamic criteria at discontinuation of IV/SC prostanoids (mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP)25 ng/kg/min), early start after diagnosis and combination with other PAH-targeted drugs were associated with better transplant-free survival.CONCLUSIONS: Early initiation of IV/SC prostanoids, higher doses of IV/SC prostanoids and combination with additional PAH-targeted therapy were associated with favorable outcome. Transition from IV/SC prostanoid therapy to oral or inhaled therapies is safe on the long-term in selected children, identified by reaching hemodynamic criteria for durable IV/SC prostanoid discontinuation while on IV/SC prostanoid therapy.

BackgroundLimited data exist on transitions across Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) risk stages and association with new-onset heart failure (HF) in the general population.MethodsData were extacted from the first four clinical examinations of the PREVEND study. Participants were categorized into eGFR and albuminuria risk stages according to KDIGO Guideline. Multi-state model was fitted to estimate the transition rates across consecutive KDIGO risk stages and the association with new-onset HF.Results8569 participants were included at baseline. During a median follow-up of 12.6 years, 373 participants were diagnosed with new-onset HF and 710 participants had died before new-onset HF. The transition rate from low risk to intermediate risk stage did not differ between women and men; it increased from 0 to 10 transitions per 100 person-years from age 50 to 75 years. The transition rate from intermediate risk to high or very high risk stage increased exponentially with age, with women having lower rates (HR: 0.50, 95%CI: 0.34-0.76). Younger subjects and women were more likely to make a backward transition from intermediate risk to low risk stage. More advanced KDIGO risk stages were associated with increased risk of new-onset HF, and the risk association attenuates with age on the relative scale but strengthens with age on the absolute scale.ConclusionsSlowing the progression of KDIGO risk stages may result in an important reduction in the incidence of new-onset heart failure in this population of middle-aged subjects.

Background: Studies on serially measured GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor 15) in acute heart failure (HF) are limited. Moreover, several pathophysiological pathways contribute to HF. Therefore, we aimed to explore the (additional) prognostic value of serially measured GDF-15 using a multi-marker approach to more accurately predict HF risk. Methods: TRIUMPH (Translational Initiative on Unique and Novel Strategies for Management of Patients With Heart Failure) is a prospective cohort of 496 patients with acute HF who were enrolled in 14 hospitals in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2014. Blood sampling was scheduled at 7 moments during 1-year follow-up. GDF-15, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), ST2 (suppression of tumorigenicity 2), galectin-3, troponin I, and creatinine were measured in a central laboratory. We associated repeated measurements of these biomarkers with the composite primary end point of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization, using multivariable joint modeling. Results: Median age was 74 years, and 37% were women. Median baseline GDF-15 was 4632 pg/mL. The primary end point was reached in 188 (40%) patients. The average estimated GDF-15 level increased weeks before the primary end point was reached. The hazard ratio per 1 SD difference in log-GDF-15 was 2.14 (95% CI, 1.78–2.57) unadjusted, 1.96 (1.49–2.53) after adjustment for clinical confounders and 1.44 (1.05–1.91) when jointly modeled with all biomarkers. The adjusted HRs for NT-proBNP were 2.38 (1.78–3.33) and 1.52 (1.15–2.08), respectively. The multimarker model combining GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and troponin I provided a favorable risk discrimination (area under the curve=0.785). Conclusions: Sequentially measured GDF-15 independently and dynamically predicts risk of adverse outcomes during 1-year follow-up after index admission for acute HF. NT-proBNP remains a robust predictor among potential candidates. Multiple biomarkers should be considered for stratification in clinical practice. Registration: URL: https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/1783 ; Unique Identifier: NTR1893. (The trial can be found temporarily at https://trialsearch.who.int/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=NTR1893 .)

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between systolic blood pressure (SBP) drop, worsening renal function (WRF), and prognosis in patients with acute heart failure (AHF).BACKGROUND: A large drop in SBP early after hospital admission for AHF might be associated with increased risk for WRF and prognosis. However, there is a paucity of data regarding the interaction between WRF and a drop in SBP on clinical outcomes.METHODS: A post hoc analysis among 6,544 patients with AHF enrolled in the RELAX-AHF-2 (Relaxin in Acute Heart Failure-2) trial was performed. Blood pressure was uniformly and repetitively measured. Peak SBP drop was defined as the difference between baseline SBP and lowest SBP documented during the first 48 hours. WRF was defined by an increase in serum creatinine of ≥0.3 mg/dL from baseline to day 5.RESULTS: Peak SBP drop was independently associated with a higher risk for WRF (HR: 1.11 per 10 mm Hg SBP drop; P < 0.001), 5-day worsening heart failure (HR: 1.12 per 10 mm Hg SBP drop; P = 0.006), and 180-day cardiovascular death (HR: 1.09 per 10 mm Hg SBP drop; P = 0.026) after adjustment for potential confounders including baseline SBP. There was no interaction between the prognostic value of early SBP drop according to the presence or absence of WRF.CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for AHF, a greater early drop in SBP was associated with a higher incidence of WRF, worsening heart failure, and an increased risk for 180-day cardiovascular death. However, the association between SBP drop and prognosis was not influenced by WRF. (Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Serelaxin When Added to Standard Therapy in AHF [RELAX-AHF-2]; NCT01870778).

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper was to investigate the effects of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, with and without heart failure (HF).BACKGROUND: Patients with CKD, with and without type 2 diabetes, were enrolled in the DAPA-CKD (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease) trial. Some patients had HF at baseline.METHODS: A total of 4,304 participants were randomized to dapagliflozin 10 mg daily or placebo. The primary composite endpoint was ≥50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney/cardiovascular death. Secondary endpoints were a kidney composite (primary endpoint minus cardiovascular death), the composite of cardiovascular death/HF hospitalization, and all-cause death. Analysis of outcomes according to HF history was prespecified.RESULTS: HF patients (n = 468; 11%) were older and had more coronary disease, atrial fibrillation, and type 2 diabetes. Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was similar in patients with and without HF. Rates of HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death and death from any cause were higher in HF patients, but the secondary kidney failure outcome occurred at the same rate in people with and without HF. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary outcome equally in patients with HF (HR: 0.58 [95% CI: 0.37-0.91]) and without HF (HR: 0.62 [95% CI: 0.51-0.75]) (P interaction = 0.59). The proportional risk-reductions were similar in patients with and without HF for the cardiovascular death/HF hospitalization composite (HR: 0.68 [95% CI: 0.44-1.05] vs HR: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.51-0.97], respectively; P interaction = 0.90), and all-cause death (HR: 0.56 [95% CI: 0.34-0.93] vs HR: 0.73 [95% CI: 0.54-0.97], respectively; P interaction = 0.39), although absolute risk reductions were larger in HF patients. Adverse event rates were low and did not differ among patients with or without HF.CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular death/HF hospitalization and prolonged survival in CKD patients with or without type 2 diabetes, independently of history of HF. (A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on Renal Outcomes and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease [DAPA-CKD]; NCT03036150).

For high-risk spinal surgeries, intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) is used to detect and prevent intraoperative neurological injury. The motor tracts are monitored by recording and analyzing muscle transcranial electrical stimulation motor evoked potentials (mTc-MEPs). A mTc-MEP amplitude decrease of 50–80% is the most common warning criterion for possible neurological injury. However, these warning criteria often result in false positive warnings. False positives may be caused by inadequate depth of anesthesia and blood pressure on mTc-MEP amplitudes. The aim of this paper is to validate the study protocol in which the goal is to investigate the effects of depth of anesthesia (part 1) and blood pressure (part 2) on mTc-MEPs. Per part, 25 patients will be included. In order to investigate the effects of depth of anesthesia, a processed electroencephalogram (pEEG) monitor will be used. At pEEG values of 30, 40 and 50, mTc-MEP measurements will be performed. To examine the effect of blood pressure on mTc-MEPs the mean arterial pressure will be elevated from 60 to 100 mmHg during which mTc-MEP measurements will be performed. We hypothesize that by understanding the effects of depth of anesthesia and blood pressure on mTc-MEPs, the mTc-MEP monitoring can be interpreted more reliably. This may contribute to fewer false positive warnings. By performing this study after induction and prior to incision, this protocol provides a unique opportunity to study the effects of depths of anesthesia and blood pressure on mTc-MEPs alone with as little confounders as possible.Trial registration numberNL7772.

Background: Dapagliflozin reduces the risk of end-stage renal disease in patients with chronic kidney disease. We examined the relative risk of cardiovascular and renal events in these patients and the effect of dapagliflozin on either type of event, taking account of history of cardiovascular disease. Methods: In the DAPA-CKD trial (Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease), 4304 participants with chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to dapagliflozin 10 mg once daily or placebo. The primary end point was a composite of sustained decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥50%, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney or cardiovascular death. The secondary end points were a kidney composite outcome (primary end point, minus cardiovascular death), the composite of hospitalization for heart failure or cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. In a prespecified subgroup analysis, we divided patients into primary and secondary prevention subgroups according to history of cardiovascular disease. Results: Secondary prevention patients (n=1610; 37.4%) were older, were more often male, had a higher blood pressure and body mass index, and were more likely to have diabetes. Mean estimated glomerular filtration rate and median urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio were similar in the primary and secondary prevention groups. The rates of adverse cardiovascular outcomes were higher in the secondary prevention group, but kidney failure occurred at the same rate in the primary and secondary prevention groups. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome to a similar extent in both the primary (hazard ratio, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.48–0.78]) and secondary (0.61 [0.47–0.79]) prevention groups ( P -interaction=0.90). This was also true for the composite of heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular death (0.67 [0.40–1.13] versus 0.70 [0.52–0.94], respectively; P -interaction=0.88), and all-cause mortality (0.63 [0.41–0.98] versus 0.70 [0.51–0.95], respectively; P -interaction=0.71). Rates of adverse events were low overall and did not differ between patients with and without cardiovascular disease. Conclusions: Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of kidney failure, death from cardiovascular causes or hospitalization for heart failure, and prolonged survival in people with chronic kidney disease, with or without type 2 diabetes, independently of the presence of concomitant cardiovascular disease. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT03036150.

Aims The relation between non-cardiac comorbidities and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with heart failure (HF) has been studied to a limited extent. To investigate the HRQoL and their determinants among HF patients with and without comorbidities. Methods and results TRIUMPH (TRanslational Initiative on Unique and novel strategies for Management of Patients with Heart failure) is a Dutch prospective, multicentre study enrolling 496 acute HF patients between 2009 and 2014. We included 334 patients who had completed the HRQoL questionnaires at baseline. The HRQoL was measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) en EuroQuality-of-life five Dimensions (EQ-5D). Comorbidity was defined as having a history of at least one of the following comorbidities: chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and/or cerebrovascular accident. Patients with comorbidity (n = 205, 61%) had lower scores on the physical limitation scale and clinical summary score of the KCCQ (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01, respectively). Female sex, COPD, previous HF, increasing body mass index (BMI), elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high systolic blood pressure, and the presence of anxiety and/or depression negatively influenced the HRQoL among HF patients with comorbidity. Besides anxiety and depression, we hardly found any other determinant of HRQoL in patients without comorbidity. Conclusion Heart failure patients without comorbidity had better HRQoL than patients with comorbidity. Sex, previous HF, BMI, COPD, systolic blood pressure, NT-proBNP levels, and also anxiety and depression were determinants of HRQoL in patients with comorbidity. In those without comorbidity, apart from anxiety and depression, no further determinants of HRQoL were found.

The high prices of new anticancer drugs and the marginal added benefit perceived by some stakeholders have fuelled a debate on the value of anticancer drugs in the European Union, even though an agreed definition of what constitutes a drug's value does not exist. In this Perspective, we discuss the value of drugs from different viewpoints and objectives of decision makers: for regulators, assessment of the benefit-risk balance of a drug is a cornerstone for approval; payers rely on cost-effectiveness analyses carried out by health technology assessment agencies for reimbursement decisions; for patients, treatment choices are based on personal preferences and attitudes to risk; and clinicians can use several scales (such as the ESMO Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (ESMO-MCBS)) that have been developed as an attempt to measure value objectively. Although a unique definition that fully captures the concept of value is unlikely to emerge, herein we discuss the importance of understanding different perspectives, and how regulators can help to inform different decision makers.

Hydrogen sulfide (H2S), produced from metabolism of dietary sulfur-containing amino acids, is allegedly a renoprotective compound. Twenty-four-hour urinary sulfate excretion (USE) may reflect H2S bioavailability. We aimed to investigate the association of USE with graft failure in a large prospective cohort of renal transplant recipients (RTR). We included 704 stable RTR, recruited at least 1 year after transplantation. We applied log-rank testing and Cox regression analyses to study association of USE, measured from baseline 24 h urine samples, with graft failure. Median age was 55 [45–63] years (57% male, eGFR was 45 ± 19 ml/min/1.73 m2). Median USE was 17.1 [13.1–21.1] mmol/24 h. Over median follow-up of 5.3 [4.5–6.0] years, 84 RTR experienced graft failure. RTR in the lowest sex-specific tertile of USE experienced a higher rate of graft failure during follow-up than RTR in the middle and highest sex-specific tertiles (18%, 13%, and 5%, respectively, log-rank P 2S bioavailability as a novel, potentially modifiable factor for prevention of graft failure in RTR.

BACKGROUND: Research has been mainly focused on how to elicit patient preferences, with less attention on why patients form certain preferences. OBJECTIVES: To assess which psychological instruments are currently used and which psychological constructs are known to have an impact on patients' preferences and health-related decisions including the formation of preferences and preference heterogeneity. METHODS: A systematic database search was undertaken to identify relevant studies. From the selected studies, the following information was extracted: study objectives, study population, design, psychological dimensions investigated, and instruments used to measure psychological variables. RESULTS: Thirty-three studies were identified that described the association between a psychological construct, measured using a validated instrument, and patients' preferences or health-related decisions. We identified 33 psychological instruments and 18 constructs, and categorized the instruments into 5 groups, namely, motivational factors, cognitive factors, individual differences, emotion and mood, and health beliefs. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides an overview of the psychological factors and related instruments in the context of patients' preferences and decisions in healthcare settings. Our results indicate that measures of health literacy, numeracy, and locus of control have an impact on health-related preferences and decisions. Within the category of constructs that could explain preference and decision heterogeneity, health locus of control is a strong predictor of decisions in several healthcare contexts and is useful to consider when designing a patient preference study. Future research should continue to explore the association of psychological constructs with preference formation and heterogeneity to build on these initial recommendations. ispartof: VALUE IN HEALTH vol:22 issue:4 pages:491-501 ispartof: location:United States status: Published online

This pre-specified analysis of DAPA-CKD assessed the impact of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibition on abrupt declines in kidney function in high-risk patients based on having chronic kidney disease (CKD) and substantial albuminuria. DAPA-CKD was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that had a median follow-up of 2.4 years. Adults with CKD (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio 200-5000 mg/g and estimated glomerular filtration rate 25-75 mL/min/1.73m2) were randomized to dapagliflozin 10 mg/day matched to placebo (2152 individuals each). An abrupt decline in kidney function was defined as a pre-specified endpoint of doubling of serum creatinine between two subsequent study visits. We also assessed a post-hoc analysis of investigator-reported acute kidney injury-related serious adverse events. Doubling of serum creatinine between two subsequent visits (median time-interval 100 days) occurred in 63 (2.9%) and 91 (4.2%) participants in the dapagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively (hazard ratio 0.68 [95% confidence interval 0.49, 0.94]). Accounting for the competing risk of mortality did not alter our findings. There was no heterogeneity in the effect of dapagliflozin on abrupt declines in kidney function based on baseline subgroups. Acute kidney injury-related serious adverse events were not significantly different and occurred in 52 (2.5%) and 69 (3.2%) participants in the dapagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively (0.77 [0.54, 1.10]). Thus, in patients with CKD and substantial albuminuria, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of abrupt declines in kidney function. HJLH and DC are co-primary authors. The DAPA-CKD Trial Committees and Investigators are listed in the Appendix.

A commonly used approach to study the association between a time-varying biomarker, such as forced vital capacity (FVC), and a time-to-event outcome, such as new onset of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), is to incorporate the biomarker as a time-dependent covariate in a Cox model. This approach, which is known as the time-dependent Cox model (TDCM), requires knowledge of the value of the time-varying biomarker at all time points at which the event of interest occurs [1]. However, in clinical studies, longitudinal biomarker measurements are taken intermittently during scheduled (and sometimes unscheduled) visits, meaning that imputation of missing values is required for those event times at which the biomarker is not observed. In practical application of the TDCM, this is achieved by carrying forward the most recent biomarker measurement. While the use of last observation carried forward (LOCF) is easy to understand and implement, the resulting step function (see fig. 1, panel C for an example) is unlikely to provide a good approximation of the true biomarker trajectory. Footnotes This manuscript has recently been accepted for publication in the European Respiratory Journal . It is published here in its accepted form prior to copyediting and typesetting by our production team. After these production processes are complete and the authors have approved the resulting proofs, the article will move to the latest issue of the ERJ online. Please open or download the PDF to view this article. Conflict of interest: Dr. Chen has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Postmus has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Cowie has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Woehrle has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Wegscheider has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Simonds has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Boezen has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Somers reports other from Steering Committee SERV HF, outside the submitted work. Conflict of interest: Dr. Teschler has nothing to disclose. Conflict of interest: Dr. Eulenburg has nothing to disclose.

BackgroundPrognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF.MethodsFour prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration.Results3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF ConclusionsOur HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making.

OBJECTIVETo develop and validate a prognostic model for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients using routinely collected demographic and clinical characteristics.DESIGNMulticenter, retrospective cohort study.SETTINGJinyintan Hospital, Union Hospital, and Tongji Hosptial in Wuhan, China.PARTICIPANTSA pooled derivation cohort of 1008 COVID-19 patients from Jinyintan Hospital, Union Hospital in Wuhan and an external validation cohort of 1031 patients from Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESOutcome of interest was in-hospital mortality, treating discharged alive from hospital as the competing event. Fine-Gray models, using backward elimination for inclusion of predictor variables and allowing non-linear effects of continuous variables, were used to derive a prognostic model for predicting in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients. Internal validation was implemented to check model overfitting using bootstrap approach. External validation to a separate hospital was implemented to evaluate the generalizability of the model.RESULTSThe derivation cohort was a case-mix of mild-to-severe hospitalized COVID-19 patients (n=1008, 43.6% females, median age 55). The final model (PLANS), including five predictor variables of platelet count, lymphocyte count, age, neutrophil count, and sex, had an excellent predictive performance (optimism-adjusted C-index: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.87; averaged calibration slope: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.82 to 1.08). Internal validation showed little overfitting. External validation using an independent cohort (n=1031, 47.8% female, median age 63) demonstrated excellent predictive performance (C-index: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.85 to 0.89; calibration slope: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.12). The averaged predicted survival curves were close to the observed survival curves across patients with different risk profiles.CONCLUSIONSThe PLANS model based on the five routinely collected demographic and clinical characteristics (platelet count, lymphocyte count, age, neutrophil count, and sex) showed excellent discriminative and calibration accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. This prognostic model would assist clinicians in better triaging patients and allocating healthcare resources to reduce COVID-19 fatality.

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the importance that patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Netherlands and Turkey attach to certain drug effects of oral anti-diabetic drugs.Methods: Data were collected through a cross-sectional survey containing demographic questions and a discrete choice experiment assessing preferences for oral anti-diabetic drugs. Adults from the Netherlands and Turkey were included if they had type 2 diabetes mellitus and had received a prescription of an oral anti-diabetic drug in the last 4 months. The oral anti-diabetic drugs in the discrete choice experiment were described in terms of six attributes: effects on HbA1c, cardiovascular diseases, weight change, gastrointestinal adverse drug events hypoglycemic events, and bladder cancer. Multinomial logit models with country as an interaction factor were fitted.Results: In total, 381 patients were included, 199 from the Netherlands and 182 from Turkey. Patients’ preferences toward drug effects varied between the countries. Turkish patients attached the highest importance to reducing the risk of cardiovascular diseases (relative weight: 0.51, 95% CI 0.45–0.55), followed by reducing hypoglycemic events (relative weight: 0.16, 95% CI 0.11–0.22), and reducing gastrointestinal adverse drug events (relative weight: 0.11, 95% CI 0.07–0.18). Patients from the Netherlands attached the highest importance to gastrointestinal ADEs (relative weight: 0.22, 95% CI 0.14–0.39), followed by reducing hypoglycemic events (relative weight: 0.22, 95% CI 0.16–0.25), and reducing the risk of cardiovascular diseases (relative weight: 0.20, 95% CI 0.13–0.23).Conclusion: Patient preferences may differ across countries. Such differences should be acknowledged in regulatory decisions and clinical practice.

Background: Translating prognostic and diagnostic biomarker candidates into clinical applications takes time, is very costly, and many candidates fail. It is therefore crucial to be able to select those biomarker candidates that have the highest chance of successfully being adopted in the clinic. This requires an early estimate of the potential clinical impact and commercial value. In this paper, we aim to demonstratively evaluate a set of novel biomarkers in terms of clinical impact and commercial value, using occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type-2 diabetes (DM2) patients as a case study.Methods: We defined a clinical application for the novel biomarkers, and subsequently used data from a large cohort study in The Netherlands in a modeling exercise to assess the potential clinical impact and headroom for the biomarkers.Results: The most likely application of the biomarkers would be to identify DM2 patients with a low CVD risk and subsequently withhold statin treatment. As a result, one additional CVD event in every 75 patients may be expected. The expected downstream savings resulted in a headroom for a point-of-care device ranging from €119.09 at a willingness to accept of €0 for one additional CVD event, to €0 at a willingness to accept of €15,614 or more.Conclusion: It is feasible to evaluate novel biomarkers on outcomes directly relevant to technological development and clinical adoption. Importantly, this may be attained at the same point in time and using the same data as used for the evaluation of association with disease and predictive power.

The objectives of this study were to ascertain the treatment preferences of patients with multiple myeloma, considering benefits and risks of particular cancer treatments, and to illustrate how such data may be used to estimate patients' acceptance of new treatments., Background. The objectives of this study were to elicit the preferences of patients with multiple myeloma regarding the possible benefits and risks of cancer treatments and to illustrate how such data may be used to estimate patients’ acceptance of new treatments. Patients and Methods. Patients with multiple myeloma from the cancer charity Myeloma UK were invited to participate in an online survey based on multicriteria decision analysis and swing weighting to elicit individual stated preferences for the following attributes: (a) 1‐year progression‐free survival (PFS, ranging from 50% to 90%), (b) mild or moderate toxicity for 2 months or longer (ranging from 85% to 45%), and (c) severe or life‐threatening toxicity (ranging from 80% to 20%). Results. A total of 560 participants completed the survey. The average weight given to PFS was 0.54, followed by 0.32 for severe or life‐threatening toxicity and 0.14 for mild or moderate chronic toxicity. Participants who ranked severe or life‐threatening toxicity above mild or moderate chronic toxicity (56%) were more frequently younger, working, and looking after dependent family members and had more frequently experienced severe or life‐threatening side effects. The amount of weight given to PFS did not depend on any of the collected covariates. The feasibility of using the collected preference data to estimate the patients’ acceptance of specific multiple myeloma treatments was demonstrated in a subsequent decision analysis example. Conclusion. Stated preference studies provide a systematic approach to gain knowledge about the distribution of preferences in the population and about what this implies for patients’ acceptance of specific treatments. Implications for Practice. This study demonstrated how quantitative preference statements from a large group of participants can be collected through an online survey and how such information may be used to explore the acceptability of specific treatments based on the attributes studied. Results from such studies have the potential to become an important new tool for gathering patient views and studying heterogeneity in preferences in a systematic way, along with other methods, such as focus groups and expert opinions.

AIMS: Previous studies have identified candidate circulating microRNAs (circmiRs) as biomarkers for heart failure (HF) using relatively insensitive arrays, validated in small cohorts. The present study used RNA sequencing to identify novel candidate circmiRs and compared these with previously identified circmiRs in a large, prospective cohort of patients with acute HF (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: RNA sequencing of plasma from instrumented pigs was used to identify circmiRs produced by myocardium. Production of known myomiRs and microRNA (miR)‐1306‐5p was identified. The prognostic values of this and 11 other circmiRs were tested in a prospective cohort of 496 AHF patients, from whom blood samples were collected at up to seven time‐points during the study's 1‐year follow‐up. The primary endpoint was the composite of all‐cause mortality and HF rehospitalization. In the prospective AHF cohort, 188 patients reached the primary endpoint, and higher values of repeatedly measured miR‐1306‐5p were positively associated with risk for reaching the primary endpoint at the same time‐point [hazard ratio (HR) 4.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.18–10.06], independent of clinical characteristics and NT‐proBNP. Baseline miR‐1306‐5p did not improve model discrimination/reclassification significantly compared with NT‐proBNP. For miR‐320a, miR‐378a‐3p, miR‐423‐5p and miR‐1254, associations with the primary endpoint were present after adjustment for age and sex (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12–1.70; HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.04–1.74; HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.10–1.92; HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.00–1.50, respectively). Rates of detection of myomiRs miR‐208a‐3p and miR‐499a‐5p were very low. CONCLUSIONS: Repeatedly measured miR‐1306‐5p was positively associated with adverse clinical outcome in AHF, even after multivariable adjustment including NT‐proBNP. However, baseline miR‐1306‐5p did not add significant discriminatory value to NT‐proBNP. Low‐abundance, heart‐enriched myomiRs are often undetectable, which mandates the development of more sensitive assays.

Aim Improved prediction of early post-discharge death or rehospitalization after admission for acute heart failure is a major unmet need. We evaluated the value of biomarkers to predict either low or high risk for early post-discharge events. Methods and results A total of 1653 patients enrolled in the PROTECT trial who were discharged alive and with available blood samples were included. Forty-seven biomarkers were serially evaluated in these patients. Measurement closest to discharge was used to evaluate the predictive value of biomarkers for low and high post-discharge risk. Patients were classified as ‘low risk’ if post-discharge 30-day risk of death or heart failure rehospitalization was 20% was used to define ‘high risk’. Cut-off values that yielded a 95% negative predictive value and a 20% positive predictive value were identified for each biomarker. Partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (pAUC) in the high-sensitivity and high-specificity regions was calculated to compare low-risk and high-risk predictive values. Of patients analysed, 193 (11.7%) patients reached the 30-day death or heart failure rehospitalization outcome. We found marked differences between low-risk and high-risk predictors. Cardiac-specific troponin I was the strongest biomarker for low-risk prediction (pAUC = 0.552, 95% confidence interval 0.52–0.58) while endothelin-1 showed better performance for high-risk prediction (pAUC = 0.560, 95% confidence interval 0.53–0.59). Several biomarkers (individually and in combination) provided added predictive value, on top of a clinical model, in both low-risk and high-risk regions. Conclusion Different biomarkers predicted low risk vs. high risk of early post-discharge death or heart failure readmission in patients hospitalized for acute heart failure.

Background: The selective adenosine A1 receptor antagonist rolofylline showed a neutral overall result on clinical outcomes in the PROTECT trial. However, we hypothesized that response to rolofylline treatment could be influenced by underlying clinical risk.Methods: We performed a post-hoc analysis of the PROTECT trial -a large, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial that enrolled 2033 patients. Baseline risk of 180-day all-cause mortality was estimated using a previously published 8-item model. Evaluation of efficacy of rolofylline across subpopulations defined based on estimated risk of mortality was performed using subpopulation treatment effect pattern plot (STEPP) analysis. Findings were validated in an independent cohort of acute heart failure patients.Results: Median estimated risk of mortality was 13.0%, IQR [8.0%-23.0%] and was comparable between the rolofylline and placebo arms. In low to intermediate risk subgroups of patients, rolofylline was associated with a higher rate of 180-day all-cause mortality (11.9% in the rolofylline versus 8.4% in the placebo arms, p = 0.050). In the high risk subgroup of patients, particularly those with estimated risk of mortality between 20% and 30%, 180-day all-cause mortality rate was markedly lower in the rolofylline arm(18.4% in the rolofylline versus 34.0% in the placebo arms, p = 0.003). The trend towards potential harm with rolofylline treatment in the low to intermediate risk subpopulations and significant benefit in high risk patients was also observed in the validation cohort.Conclusion: Our findings suggest that selective adenosine A1 receptor antagonism could be harmful in low risk acute heart failure patients, while it might significantly benefit higher risk patients. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

AimsEpisodes of acute heart failure (AHF) may lead to end-organ dysfunction. In this post hoc analysis of the Relaxin in Acute Heart Failure trial, we used the MELD-XI (Model of End-Stage Liver Dysfunction) score to examine hepatorenal dysfunction in patients with AHF.Methods and resultsOn admission, the MELD-XI score was elevated (abnormal) in 918 (82%) patients, with 638 (57%) having isolated renal dysfunction (creatinine>1mg/dL), 73 (6.5%) isolated liver dysfunction (bilirubin>1mg/dL), and 207 (18.5%) coexisting dysfunction of the kidneys and the liver (both creatinine and bilirubin>1mg/dL). The percentage of patients with elevated MELD-XI score remained constant through a 60day follow-up, as we observed a gradual decrease of liver dysfunction prevalence, counterbalanced by an increase in renal dysfunction. Serelaxin treatment was associated with a lower MELD-XI score on Day 2 and Day 5 (both P&nbsp

Introduction. The Dirichlet distribution has been proposed for representing preference heterogeneity, but there is limited evidence on its suitability for modeling population preferences on treatment benefits and risks. Methods. We conducted a simulation study to compare how the Dirichlet and standard discrete choice models (multinomial logit [MNL] and mixed logit [MXL]) differ in their convergence to stable estimates of population benefit-risk preferences. The source data consisted of individual-level tradeoffs from an existing 3-attribute patient preference study ( N = 560). The Dirichlet population model was fit directly to the attribute weights in the source data. The MNL and MXL population models were fit to the outcomes of a simulated discrete choice experiment in the same sample of 560 patients. Convergence to the parameter values of the Dirichlet and MNL population models was assessed with sample sizes ranging from 20 to 500 (100 simulations per sample size). Model variability was also assessed with coefficient P values. Results. Population preference estimates of all models were very close to the sample mean, and the MNL and MXL models had good fit (McFadden’s adjusted R2 = 0.12 and 0.13). The Dirichlet model converged reliably to within 0.05 distance of the population preference estimates with a sample size of 100, where the MNL model required a sample size of 240 for this. The MNL model produced consistently significant coefficient estimates with sample sizes of 100 and higher. Conclusion. The Dirichlet model is likely to have smaller sample size requirements than standard discrete choice models in modeling population preferences for treatment benefit-risk tradeoffs and is a useful addition to health preference analyst’s toolbox.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to explore to what extent the use of Subpopulation Treatment Effect Pattern Plot (STEPP) may help to identify efficient treatment allocation strategy.METHODS: The analysis was based on data from the COACH study, in which 1023 patients with heart failure were randomly assigned to three treatments: care-as-usual, basic support, and intensive support. First, using predicted 18-month mortality risk as the stratification basis, a suitable strategy for assigning different treatments to different risk groups of patients was developed. To that end, a graphical exploration of the difference in net monetary benefit (NMB) across treatment regimens and baseline risk was used. Next, the efficiency gains resulting from this proposed subgroup strategy were quantified by computing the difference in NMB between our stratified approach and the best performing population-wide strategy.RESULTS: The analysis using STEPPs suggested that a differentiated approach, based on offering intensive support to low-risk patients (18-month mortality risk ≤ 0.16) and basic support to intermediate- to high-risk patients (18-month mortality risk > 0.16) would be an economically efficient treatment allocation strategy. This was confirmed in the subsequent cost-effectiveness analysis, where the average gain in NMB resulting from the proposed stratified approach compared to basic support for all was found to be €1312 (95% CI €390-€2346) per patient.CONCLUSIONS: STEPP provides a systematic approach to assess the interaction between baseline risk and the difference in NMB between competing interventions and to identify cutoffs to stratify patients in a health economically optimal manner.

Aims Episodes of acute heart failure (AHF) unfavourably affect multiple organs, which may have an adverse impact on the outcomes. We investigated the prevalence and clinical consequences of abnormal liver function tests (LFTs) in AHF patients enrolled in the PROTECT study. Methods and results The LFTs comprised serial assessment of aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and albumin at baseline and during follow-up (daily until discharge, on days 7 and 14). The prevalence of abnormal LFTs (above upper limit of normal for AST and ALT or below lower limit of normal for albumin) was: at baseline AST 20%, ALT 12%, albumin 40%; and at day 14: AST 15%, ALT 9%, albumin 26%. Abnormal LFTs at baseline were associated with a higher risk of in-hospital death with odds ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 3.5 (1.7-7.3) for AST, 3.9 (1.8-8.4) for ALT, and 2.8 (1.3-5.9) for albumin (all P

Currently, patient preference studies are not required to be included in marketing authorization applications to regulatory authorities, and the role and methodology for such studies have not been agreed upon. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) conducted a pilot study to gain experience on how the collection of individual preferences can inform the regulatory review. Using a short online questionnaire, ordinal statements regarding the desirability of different outcomes in the treatment of advanced cancer were elicited from 139 participants (98 regulators, 29 patient or carers, and 12 healthcare professionals). This was followed by face-to-face meetings to gather feedback and validate the individual responses. In this article we summarize the EMA pilot study and discuss the role of patient preference studies within the regulatory review. Based on the results, we conclude that our preference elicitation instrument was easy to implement and sufficiently precise to learn about the distribution of the participants' individual preferences.

Objectives:There is little specific guidance on performing an early cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of medical tests. We developed a framework with general steps and applied it to two cases.Methods:Step 1 is to narrow down the scope of analysis by defining the test's application, target population, outcome measures, and investigating current test strategies and test strategies if the new test were available. Step 2 is to collect evidence on the current test strategy. Step 3 is to develop a conceptual model of the current and new test strategies. Step 4 is to conduct the early-CEA by evaluating the potential (cost-)effectiveness of the new test in clinical practice. Step 5 involves a decision about the further development of the test.Results:The first case illustrated the impact of varying the test performance on the headroom (maximum possible price) of an add-on test for patients with an intermediate-risk of having rheumatoid arthritis. Analyses showed that the headroom is particularly dependent on test performance. The second case estimated the minimum performance of a confirmatory imaging test to predict individual stroke risk. Different combinations of sensitivity and specificity were found to be cost-effective; if these combinations are attainable, the medical test developer can feel more confident about the value of further development of the test.Conclusions:A well-designed early-CEA methodology can improve the ability to develop (cost-)effective medical tests in an efficient manner. Early-CEAs should continuously integrate insights and evidence that arise through feedback, which may convince developers to return to earlier steps.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic reliability of low dose multidetector CT (MDCT) and cone beam CT (CBCT) for zygomaticomaxillary fracture diagnosis. METHODS: Unilateral zygomaticomaxillary fractures were inflicted on four out of six fresh frozen human cadaver head specimens. All specimens were scanned using four MDCT and two CBCT imaging protocols of which the radiation exposure was systematically reduced. A blinded diagnostic routine was simulated at which 16 radiologists and 8 oral and maxillofacial (OMF) surgeons performed randomized image assessments. We considered the findings during an open operative approach of the zygomatic region as the gold standard. RESULTS: Zygomaticomaxillary fractures were correctly diagnosed in 90.3% (n = 130) of the image assessments. The zygomatic arch was most often correctly diagnosed (91.0%). The zygomatic alveolar crest showed the lowest degree of correct diagnosis (65.3%). Dose reduction did not significantly affect the objective visualization of fractures of the zygomaticomaxillary complex. The sensitivity and specificity also remained consistent among the low dose scan protocols. Dose reduction did not decrease the ability to assess dislocation, comminution, orbital volume, volume rendering and soft tissues. OMF surgeons considered the low dose protocols sufficient for treatment planning. CONCLUSIONS: Dose reduction did not decrease the diagnostic reliability of MDCT and CBCT for the diagnosis of zygomaticomaxillary fractures.