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Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a black-box regression technique that is unable to provide considerable scientific insight. ML models are universal function approximators and - if used correctly - can provide scientific information related to the ground-truth dataset used for fitting. A benefit to ML over parametric models is that there are no predefined basis functions limiting the phenomena that can be modeled. In this work, we develop ML models on three datasets: the Space Environment Technologies (SET) High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, a spatiotemporally matched dataset of outputs from the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 Empirical Thermospheric Density Model (JB2008), and an accelerometer-derived density dataset from CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP). These ML models are compared to the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (NRLMSIS 2.0) model to study the presence of post-storm cooling in the middle-thermosphere. We find that both NRLMSIS 2.0 and JB2008-ML do not account for post-storm cooling and consequently perform poorly in periods following strong geomagnetic storms (e.g. the 2003 Halloween storms). Conversely, HASDM-ML and CHAMP-ML do show evidence of post-storm cooling indicating that this phenomenon is present in the original datasets. Results show that density reductions up to 40% can occur 1--3 days post-storm depending on location and the strength of the storm.

This study cross-compares ICON/MIGHTI and Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics & Dynamics (TIMED)/TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI) MLT region neutral winds from middle Northern Hemisphere to low Southern Hemisphere latitudes. We utilized MIGHTI level-2.2 (v4) and TIDI level-3 (v11) neutral winds from January 2020 to November 2020 and found their conjunctions using a space-time window of LST ± 15 min, latitude ± 4°, and longitude ± 4° around each TIDI wind measurement. Due to the nature of their orbital geometry, frequent conjunctions occurred between MIGHTI and TIDI. These conjunctions are spread in longitudes and they occur at approximately fixed LSTs and latitudes, which allows us to compare their observed diurnal variability. MIGHTI and TIDI wind observations agree well (except on the TIDI coldside during forward flight) and show similar large amplitude longitudinal variations that can reach more than 100 m/s. MIGHTI and TIDI zonal and meridional winds show moderate correlations of 0.60 and 0.55, respectively. The slopes of regression fits for zonal and meridional winds are 0.92 and 0.91, respectively. The root mean square differences in zonal and meridional winds are 56 and 66 m/s, respectively. We found that TIDI coldside measurements in forward flight show a systematic bias and this behavior is repetitive as the instrument pointing direction is changed by the periodic TIMED yaw maneuver. The nature of this systematic bias suggests that the TIDI zero-wind references (at least for the coldside telescopes) need revision. This investigation can provide guidance toward improving the TIDI data analysis. In addition, the results of this study act as a validation of MIGHTI MLT winds.

Quantifying the eddy diffusion coefficient profile in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is critical to the constituent density distributions in the upper mesosphere and thermosphere. Previous work by Swenson et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2018.05.014) estimated the global mean eddy diffusion (kzz) values in the upper mesosphere using atomic oxygen (O), derived from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) hydroxyl (OH). In this study, vertical eddy diffusive transport velocities of O were determined from continuity of mass in the mesopause region (80–97 km), primarily via the HOx chemistry. Global average constituent climatology from previously deduced SABER ozone (O3) and atomic hydrogen (H) was applied. Furthermore, we extended the global mean eddy transport velocities to new heights (105 km) in the MLT using the newly available global mean Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) data. The combined method of determining O3 loss and O density climatology from SCIAMACHY, as well as an improved global mean background atmosphere from SABER, provides new information for eddy diffusion determination in the MLT. Three prominent results to emerge from this study include (i) global mean kzz profiles between 80 and 105 km derived from MLT constituent climatologies, SABER, and SCIAMACHY global mean O density profiles averaged for approximately one solar cycle, (ii) determination of O eddy diffusion velocities in the MLT consistent between two satellite measurements and the thermosphere‐ionosphere‐mesosphere‐electrodynamics general circulation model, and (iii) resolution of historically large differences between deduced kzz determined from O versus CO2 by analysis of SABER and SCIAMACHY measurements.

The EXospheric TEMperatures on a PoLyhedrAl gRid (EXTEMPLAR) method predicts the neutral densities in the thermosphere. The performance of this model has been evaluated through a comparison with the Air Force High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM). The Space Environment Technologies (SET) HASDM database that was used for this test spans the 20 years 2000 through 2019, containing densities at 3 hr time intervals at 25 km altitude steps, and a spatial resolution of 10 degrees latitude by 15 degrees longitude. The upgraded EXTEMPLAR that was tested uses the newer Naval Research Laboratory MSIS 2.0 model to convert global exospheric temperature values to neutral density as a function of altitude. The revision also incorporated time delays that varied as a function of location, between the total Poynting flux in the polar regions and the exospheric temperature response. The density values from both models were integrated on spherical shells at altitudes ranging from 200 to 800 km. These sums were compared as a function of time. The results show an excellent agreement at temporal scales ranging from hours to years. The EXTEMPLAR model performs best at altitudes of 400 km and above, where geomagnetic storms produce the largest relative changes in neutral density. In addition to providing an effective method to compare models that have very different spatial resolutions, the use of density totals at various altitudes presents a useful illustration of how the thermosphere behaves at different altitudes, on time scales ranging from hours to complete solar cycles. NASA [80HQTR20T0081]; DARPA/Leidos AtmoSense [HR001121C0081/P0102500070]; NASA interagency [80HQTR20T0081]; Naval Research Laboratory; NSF grant [AGS-2019465] Published version Daniel Weimer was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC20K1362 to Virginia Tech, through the Space Weather Operations-to-Research Program. Kent Tobiska, Piyush Mehta, and Richard Licata were supported by subcontracts to Space Environment Technologies and West Virginia University. Kent Tobiska and J. Yoshii also acknowledge support from the DARPA/Leidos AtmoSense contracts HR001121C0081/P0102500070 to Space Environment Technologies. Douglas Drob was supported by NASA interagency agreement 80HQTR20T0081 with the Naval Research Laboratory. Daniel Weimer had additional support from NSF grant AGS-2019465.

In this paper, we report measurements in Colorado and Utah of the disturbed very-low-frequency (VLF) signals from the NML Navy transmitter in North Dakota during the 2017 solar eclipse. Using an occultation mask of solar fluxes together with detailed chemistry and VLF propagation simulations, we quantify the D-region response to the eclipse, in terms of electron density variation, as well as the expected signatures of VLF transmitter signals. The VLF measurements, including an anomalous amplitude enhancement recorded in UT, can be quantitatively explained using the Wait and Spies ionospheric profile with a sharpness parameter of $\beta = 0.3$ km−1 above ~55 km and an increase in the D-region ionosphere height of $\Delta h' \simeq 8$ km. This sharpness parameter is consistent with previously reported rocket measurements and first-principles calculations. The best-fit results suggest a reduction of D-region electron density by ~90% during the eclipse in the D-region, implying an occultation of Lyman- $\alpha $ by nearly 99%. This finding agrees with detailed calculations of time-dependent obscuration factors utilizing the He 30.4-nm images from Solar Dynamics Observatory as a proxy for the distribution of Lyman- $\alpha $ across the solar disk and limb. Moreover, the present results show that subionospheric VLF propagation is sensitive to the sharpness parameter of the electron density profile in the D-region. Previously reported first-principles simulations have shown that the sharpness parameter is mostly controlled by the background concentration of minor neutral species. Thus, the VLF technique can be likely used to remotely sense these neutral species at and below the effective reflection altitudes of VLF waves.

The total solar eclipse over the continental United States on 21 August 2017 offered a unique opportunity to study the dependence of the ionospheric density and morphology on incident solar radiation at different local times. The Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radars in Christmas Valley, Oregon, and Fort Hays, Kansas, are located slightly southward of the line of totality; they both made measurements of the eclipsed ionosphere. The received power of backscattered signal decreases during the eclipse, and the slant ranges from the westward looking radar beams initially increase and then decrease after totality. The time scales over which these changes occur at each site differ significantly from one another. For Christmas Valley the propagation changes are fairly symmetric in time, with the largest slant ranges and smallest power return occurring coincident with the closest approach of totality to the radar. The Fort Hays signature is less symmetric. In order to investigate the underlying processes governing the ionospheric eclipse response, we use a ray-tracing code to simulate SuperDARN data in conjunction with different eclipsed ionosphere models. In particular, we quantify the effect of the neutral wind velocity on the simulated data by testing the effect of adding/removing various neutral wind vector components. The results indicate that variations in meridional winds have a greater impact on the modeled ionospheric eclipse response than do variations in zonal winds. The geomagnetic field geometry and the line-of-sight angle from each site to the Sun appear to be important factors that influence the ionospheric eclipse response. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) [NNX17AH70G]; National Science Foundation (NSF)National Science Foundation (NSF) [AGS-1552188, AGS-1341925, AGS-1934997, AGS-1341918, AGS-1935110]; Virginia Space Grant Consortium (VSGC) 2015-2016 Undergraduate Research Fellowship; 2017-2018 VSGC Graduate Research Fellowship; 2018-2019 VSGC Graduate Research Fellowship Published version Funding for this research was provided by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) grant NASA #NNX17AH70G, National Science Foundation (NSF) grant NSF #AGS-1552188, a Virginia Space Grant Consortium (VSGC) 2015-2016 Undergraduate Research Fellowship, and 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 VSGC Graduate Research Fellowships. The ray tracing results presented in this paper were obtained using the HF propagation toolbox, PHaRLAP, created by Dr. Manuel Cervera, Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Australia(manuel.cervera@dsto.defence.gov.au). Funding for operations of U.S. SuperDARN radars is provided by NSF grants AGS-1341925 and AGS-1934997 (for Dartmouth College) and AGS-1341918 and AGS-1935110 (for Virginia Tech). Data analysis and visualizations in this paper were generated by employing several free open-source software packages including matplotlib (Hunter, 2007), iPython (Perez & Granger, 2007), SciPy (Virtanen et al., 2020), NumPy (van derWalt et al., 2011), and DaViTPy (Ribeiro et al., 2020), among others. Note that DaViTPy was depreciated upon the release of pyDARN (Schmidt et al., 2020) in May 2020, after the work presented in this paper was completed. Also, we acknowledge the contributions of New Jersey Institute of Technology Eclipse Team (especially Joshua Vega, Joshua Katz, and Nathaniel Frissell) to our initial development of supporting Matlab functions for the use of SAMI3 output files with PHaRLAP.

The term “sluggishness” is used to describe the time delay between maximum radio absorption in the ionosphere following the time of maximum irradiance during a solar flare. Sluggishness is one of the characteristic properties that can be used for studying lower ionospheric (D-region) and mesospheric chemistry. In this study, we propose a novel approach to estimate the ionospheric sluggishness from riometer and SuperDARN radar observations following a solar flare. In addition, we analyze sluggishness observed in riometer data. We find that sluggishness is anticorrelated with the peak solar X-ray flux and positively correlated with solar zenith angle and geographic latitude.

A new model of exospheric temperatures has been developed, with the objective of predicting global values with greater spatial and temporal accuracy. From these temperatures, the neutral densities in the thermosphere can be calculated, through use of the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar Extended (NRLMSISE-00) model. The exospheric temperature model is derived from measurements of the neutral densities on several satellites. These data were sorted into triangular cells on a geodesic grid, based on location. Prediction equations are derived for each grid cell using least error fits. Several versions of the model equations have been tested, using parameters such as the date, time, solar radiation, and nitric oxide emissions, as measured with the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. Accuracy is improved with the addition of the total Poynting flux flowing into the polar regions, from an empirical model that uses the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field. Given such inputs, the model can produce global maps of the exospheric temperature. These maps show variations in the polar regions that are strongly modulated by the time of day, due to the daily rotation of the magnetic poles. For convenience the new model is referred to with the acronym EXTEMPLAR (EXospheric TEMperatures on a PoLyhedrAl gRid). Neutral densities computed from the EXTEMPLAR-NRLMSISE-00 models combined are found to produce very good results when compared with measured values. NASANational Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) [NNX17AC04G, NNX15AE05G]; Office of Naval ResearchOffice of Naval Research; NASA Heliophysics Division Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics Project Daniel Weimer was supported by NASA Grant NNX17AC04G to Virginia Tech, with additional support from a subcontract to Hampton University, on NASA Grant NNX15AE05G. M. G. M. acknowledges support from the NASA Heliophysics Division Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics Project. D. P. D and J. T. E. acknowledge support from the Office of Naval Research. The CHAMP and GRACE neutral density data are available online (at http://tinyurl.com/RSM-Models).The density measurements from Swarm, the L2 DNSxPOD data product, can be obtained online (through the website https://swarm-diss.eo.esa.int/#swarm%2FLevel2daily%2FLatest_baselines%2FDNS%2FPOD).The code for the NRLMSISE-00 neutral density model is available from the NASA CCMC (at https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/modelweb/atmospheric/msis/nrlmsise00/).The SABER measurements of global power from carbon dioxide and nitric oxide are available at the SABER website (ftp://saber.gats-inc.com/Version2_0/SABER_cooling/). Linda Hunt generated the SABER NO data and provided manuscript corrections. The solar F10.7 and AP indices were obtained from the CelesTrak website (http://celestrak.com/SpaceData/SW-All.txt).The level 2 ACE data can be obtained from the NASA archives (at ftp://cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/data/ace). The solar indices (found at http://sol.spacenvironment.net/JB2008/indices) are provided by Space Environment Technologies. A data archive containing the supplemental graphs of neutral density predictions can be accessed online (at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3525166).Also contained here are the adjustments to the NRLMSISE-00 model supplied by J. Emmert; the total Poynting flux into both Northern and Southern Hemispheres from theWeimer 2005 model, for years 2002-2017; the derived.T values; and EXTEMPLAR model code with the required files.

The lower atmosphere contributes significantly to the day-to-day variability of the ionosphere, especially during solar minimum conditions. Ionosphere/atmosphere model simulations that incorporate meteorology from data assimilation analysis products can be critically important for elucidating the physical processes that have substantial impact on ionospheric weather. In this study, the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, extended version with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM-X) is coupled with an ionospheric model (Sami3 is Another Model of the Ionosphere) to study day-to-day variability in the ionosphere during January 2010. Lower atmospheric weather patterns are introduced into the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X simulations using the 6-h Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) data assimilation products. The same time period is simulated using the new atmospheric forecast model, the High Altitude Navy Global Environmental Model (HA-NAVGEM), a hybrid 4D-Var prototype data assimilation with the ability to produce meteorological fields at a 3-h cadence. Our study shows that forcing SD-WACCM-X with HA-NAVGEM better resolves the semidiurnal tides and introduces more day-to-day variability into the ionosphere than forcing with NOGAPS-ALPHA. The SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulation also more accurately captures the longitudinal variability associated with non-migrating tides in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region as compared to total electron content (TEC) maps derived from GPS data. Both the TEC maps and the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulation show an enhancement in TEC over South America during 17–21 January 2010, which coincides with the commencement of a stratospheric warming event on 19 January 2010. Analysis of the SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X/HA-NAVGEM simulations indicates non-migrating tides (including DW4, DE2 and SW5) played a role during 17–21 January in shifting the phase of the wave-3 pattern in the ionosphere on these days. Constructive interference of wave-3 and wave-4 patterns in the E × B drifts contributed to the enhanced TEC in the South American longitude sector. The results of the study highlight the importance of high fidelity meteorology in understanding the day-to-day variability of the ionosphere.

We performed simulations of the atmosphere‐ionosphere response to the solar eclipse of 21 August 2017 using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model‐eXtended (WACCM‐X v. 2.0) with a fully interactive ionosphere and thermosphere. Eclipse simulations show temperature changes in the path of totality up to −3 K near the surface, −1 K at the stratopause, ±4 K in the mesosphere, and −40 K in the thermosphere. In the F region ionosphere, electron density is depleted by about 55%. Both the temperature and electron density exhibit global effects in the hours following the eclipse. There are also significant effects on stratosphere‐mesosphere chemistry, including an increase in ozone by nearly a factor of 2 at 65 km. Dynamical impacts of the eclipse in the lower atmosphere appear to propagate to the upper atmosphere. This study provides insight into coupled eclipse effects through the entire atmosphere from the surface through the ionosphere.

We present quantitative predictions of the impact of the upcoming total solar eclipse on the ionosphere and plasmasphere using the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) model Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere (SAMI3). The eclipse will occur over the continental United States on 21 August 2017. Our simulation results indicate that in the vicinity of the eclipse (1) the total electron content (TEC) decreases by up to ∼ 5 TEC units (TECU; 1 TECU = ×1016 m−2) which is a ∼ 35% decrease in TEC, (2) the electron density decreases by a factor of ∼ 50% in the F region, (3) the electron temperature decreases by up to ∼800 K in the plasmasphere, and (4) the O+ velocity changes from ∼40 m s−1 upward to ∼20 m s−1 downward in the F region. Interestingly, the continental size modification of the ionospheric conductance modifies the global electric field, which should lead to measurable changes in the TEC in the southern conjugate hemisphere ( ≲1 TECU).

It has long been known that the ionospheric absorption of HF radio waves is dependent on the electron density in the ionosphere. This paper examines two aspects of the absorption calculation that have not been as thoroughly investigated. First, the correct method to calculate ionospheric absorption is explored; while the Sen Wyller ray trace formulation is generally cited as the best approximation in the D and E regions of the ionosphere, the Appleton-Hartree formulation is more consistent with the theory in the F region of the ionosphere. It is shown that either ray trace formulation can be used to calculate ionospheric absorption if the correct collision frequencies are utilized. Another frequently overlooked aspect of the attenuation calculation are the variations in the electron-neutral and electron-ion collision frequencies as a function of local time, season, latitude, and solar cycle. These variations result in differences on the order of 30% in the total ionospheric attenuation and should be included in absorption calculations.

This paper investigates and quantifies the causes of the Weddell Sea Anomaly (WSA), a region near the tip of South America extending from approximately 30° to 120°W geographic longitude and 50° to 75°S geographic latitude at solar minimum between 2007 and 2010. This region is unusual because the midnight peak electron density exceeds the midday peak electron density in summer. This study is far more quantitative than previous studies because, unlike other models, it assimilates selected data parameters to constrain a physical model in order to investigate other aspects of the data. It is shown that the commonly accepted explanation that the WSA is related to the magnetic field declination and inclination effects on the neutral wind does not explain the longitudinal variation of the electron density. Rather, longitudinal changes in the neutral winds and neutral densities are the most likely explanation for the WSA. These longitudinal wind and density changes are attributed to the varying latitudinal distance from the auroral zone energy input. No contributions from the plasmasphere or other sources are required. Furthermore, it is shown that a widely used empirical thermosphere density model overestimates the longitudinal changes in the WSA region.

Perturbations caused by geophysical and anthropogenic events on the ground have been observed to propagate upward and impact the upper atmosphere. Gravity waves with wavelengths less than 750 km are known to be responsible for the total electron content (TEC) perturbations and to play a significant role in the mass, momentum, and energy budgets of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). These waves are however difficult to continuously measure, globally resolve, and deterministically specify in first-principle ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) models. In this study, we investigate IT response to induced acoustic-gravity waves (AGWs) resulting from strong time-varying lower atmospheric wave forcing, including a traveling wave packet (TWP) and stochastic gravity wave (SGW) fields using the nonlinear Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) with high-resolution grids of 0.08° in longitude and latitude. When TWP and SGW forcing occurs concurrently, the induced gravity waves (GWs) cause variation of ±8.8% in neutral, ±6.2% in electron density, and ±1.5% in TEC. The magnitudes decrease by 2.4% (from ±8.8% to ±6.4%) with the SGW effects simulated separately and subtracted; importantly interactions between TWP and SGW contribute to ±1.4% of the perturbations. On the other hand, the induced acoustic waves (AWs) cause variation of ±13.9% in neutral, ±2.1% in electron density, and ±0.4% in TEC. Furthermore, GWs sustain tens of minutes after the TWP has passed through the lower atmosphere and clear TIDs and TADs are developed. We demonstrate that clear wave structures from an episodic event can be isolated even under a ubiquitously and overwhelmingly perturbed atmosphere.

One of the challenges for the utilization of HF radiowaves in practical applications is to understand how the signals propagate in time- and range-dependent multipath environments. For typical quiescent ionospheric conditions it is often reasonably straightforward to interpret received HF signals. For disturbed ionospheric conditions, however, such as in the presence of large tilts, irregularities, and medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs), data interpretation and utilization often becomes challenging. This paper presents a theoretical HF propagation modeling study that exploits the capabilities of a first principles, mesoscale resolution ionosphere code, SAMI3 (Sami3 is Another Model of the Ionosphere) and a new implementation of the 3-D ray trace equations, MoJo-15 (Modernized Jones Code) in order to examine the relationship between various HF propagation observables and MSTID characteristics. This paper demonstrates the implications of MSTIDS on high angle of incidence HF propagation during typical low-latitude, postsunset ionospheric conditions and examines the spatiotemporal evolution of multiple propagation paths that may connect a given source and receiver.

This work quantifies the physical characteristics of infrasound signal and noise, assesses their temporal variations, and determines the degree to which these effects can be predicted by time-varying atmospheric models to estimate array and network performance. An automated detector that accounts for both correlated and uncorrelated noise is applied to infrasound data from three seismo-acoustic arrays in South Korea (BRDAR, CHNAR, and KSGAR), cooperatively operated by Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) and Southern Methodist University (SMU). Arrays located on an island and near the coast have higher noise power, consistent with both higher wind speeds and seasonably variable ocean wave contributions. On the basis of the adaptive F-detector quantification of time variable environmental effects, the time-dependent scaling variable is shown to be dependent on both weather conditions and local site effects. Significant seasonal variations in infrasound detections including daily time of occurrence, detection numbers, and phase velocity/azimuth estimates are documented. These time-dependent effects are strongly correlated with atmospheric winds and temperatures and are predicted by available atmospheric specifications. This suggests that commonly available atmospheric specifications can be used to predict both station and network detection performance, and an appropriate forward model improves location capabilities as a function of time.

This study is focused on investigating how well the day-to-day variability of HF propagation in the bottomside ionosphere can be simulated using a state-of-the-art ionosphere model coupled to a whole atmosphere model driven by the lower atmosphere. The SAMI3 ionosphere model has been coupled to the WACCM-X whole atmosphere model, which was nudged with NAVGEM-HA to incorporate the effects of lower atmospheric weather. The resulting ionospheric specifications were used as input for an HF propagation model (MoJo) in order to compare to observations from the NOAA ionosphere network. The results indicate that the amount of variability at the F-region peak can be successfully reproduced by the model, but that the simulations do not show enough variability in the bottomside of the F-region, particularly below 200 km altitude. Further comparisons with data and a simple modeling study are used to demonstrate that the most likely source of this missing variability are low-altitude ion transport terms, which are not currently included in the standard SAMI3 model. These transport terms are required to simulate the motion perpendicular to the magnetic field in regions where the motion becomes strongly dominated by ion-neutral collisions.

Over the last decade, there have been improvements in global data assimilation capabilities of the lower, middle, and upper atmosphere. This includes mesoscale specification capabilities for the troposphere. This chapter provides an overview of both operational and basic scientific research specifications of the atmosphere from the ground to the thermosphere that are available for the calculation of infrasound propagation characteristics. This review is intended for scientific experts, nonexperts, researchers, educators, and policy makers alike. As atmospheric specifications for the lower and middle atmosphere are now readily available, less uncertain, and also described in other chapters of this book, some additional emphasis is placed on the challenges associated with upper atmospheric specifications for modeling thermospherically ducted infrasound propagation. Otherwise, no particular emphasis is placed on any one atmospheric specification system or institutional data provider; nor anyone particular infrasound propagation application, i.e., local, regional, global, man-made, or natural.

This study is focused on improving the poorly understood seasonal dependence of northern high-latitude F region thermospheric winds under active geomagnetic conditions. The gaps in our understanding of the dynamic high-latitude thermosphere are largely due to the sparseness of thermospheric wind measurements. With current observational facilities, it is infeasible to construct a synoptic picture of thermospheric winds, but enough data with wide spatial and temporal coverage have accumulated to construct a meaningful statistical analysis. We use long-term data from eight ground-based and two space-based instruments to derive climatological wind patterns as a function of magnetic local time, magnetic latitude, and season. These diverse data sets possess different geometries and different spatial and solar activity coverage. The major challenge is to combine these disparate data sets into a coherent picture while overcoming the sampling limitations and biases among them. In our previous study (focused on quiet time winds), we found bias in the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) cross-track winds. Here we empirically quantify the GOCE bias and use it as a correction profile for removing apparent bias before empirical wind formulation. The assimilated wind patterns exhibit all major characteristics of high-latitude neutral circulation. The latitudinal extent of duskside circulation expands almost 10∘ from winter to summer. The dawnside circulation subsides from winter to summer. Disturbance winds derived from geomagnetic active and quiet winds show strong seasonal and latitudinal variability. Comparisons between wind patterns derived here and Disturbance Wind Model (DWM07) (which have no seasonal dependence) suggest that DWM07 is skewed toward summertime conditions.

The Naval Research Laboratory first-principles ionosphere model SAMI3 is used to study the ionospheric effects associated with tsunami-driven gravity waves. Specifically, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami of 11 March 2011 is modeled. It is shown that gravity wave-induced variations in the neutral wind lead to plasma velocity variations both perpendicular and parallel to the geomagnetic field. Moreover, the electric field induced by the neutral wind perturbations can map to the conjugate hemisphere. Thus, electron density variations can be generated in both hemispheres which impact the total electron content (TEC) and 6300 A airglow emission. It is found that the TEC exhibits variations of ≲±0.1 total electron content unit (1 TECU = 1016 el m−2) and the 6300 A airglow emission variation is up to ∼±2.5% relative to the unperturbed background airglow.

The Horizontal Wind Model (HWM) has been updated in the thermosphere with new observations and formulation changes. These new data are ground-based 630 nm Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) measurements in the equatorial and polar regions, as well as cross-track winds from the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite. The GOCE wind observations provide valuable wind data in the twilight regions. The ground-based FPI measurements fill latitudinal data gaps in the prior observational database. Construction of this reference model also provides the opportunity to compare these new measurements. The resulting update (HWM14) provides an improved time-dependent, observationally based, global empirical specification of the upper atmospheric general circulation patterns and migrating tides. In basic agreement with existing accepted theoretical knowledge of the thermosphere general circulation, additional calculations indicate that the empirical wind specifications are self-consistent with climatological ionosphere plasma distribution and electric field patterns.

The Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite senses far ultraviolet emissions from O and N2 in the thermosphere. Transformation of far ultraviolet radiances measured on the Earth limb into O, N2, and O2 number densities and temperature quantifies these responses and demonstrates the value of simultaneous altitude and geographic information. Composition and temperature variations are available from 2002 to 2007. This paper documents the extraction of these data products from the limb emission rates. We present the characteristics of the GUVI limb observations, retrievals of thermospheric neutral composition and temperature from the forward model, and the dramatic changes of the thermosphere with the solar cycle and geomagnetic activity. We examine the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance magnitude and trends through comparison with simultaneous Solar Extreme EUV (SEE) measurements on TIMED and find the EUV irradiance inferred from GUVI averaged (2002–2007) 30% lower magnitude than SEE version 11 and varied less with solar activity. The smaller GUVI variability is not consistent with the view that lower solar EUV radiation during the past solar minimum is the cause of historically low thermospheric mass densities. Thermospheric O and N2 densities are lower than the NRLMSISE-00 model, but O2 is consistent. We list some lessons learned from the GUVI program along with several unresolved issues.

This paper investigates the large-scale seasonal dependence of geomagnetically quiet time, northern high-latitude F region thermospheric winds by combining extensive observations from eight ground-based (optical remote sensing) and three space-based (optical remote sensing and in situ) instruments. To provide a comprehensive picture of the wind morphology, data are assimilated into a seasonal empirical vector wind model as a function of season, latitude, and local time in magnetic coordinates. The model accurately represents the behavior of the constituent data sets. There is good general agreement among the various data sets, but there are some major offsets between GOCE and the other data sets, especially on the duskside. The assimilated wind patterns exhibit a strong and large duskside anticyclonic circulation cell, sharp latitudinal gradients in the duskside auroral zone, strong antisunward winds in the polar cap, and a weaker tendency toward a dawnside cyclonic circulation cell. The high-latitude wind system shows a progressive intensification of wind patterns from winter to equinox to summer. The latitudinal extent of the duskside circulation cell does not depend strongly on season. Zonal winds show a mainly diurnal variation (two extrema) around polar and middle latitudes and semidiurnal variation (four extrema) at auroral latitudes; meridional winds are primarily diurnal at all high latitudes. The strength of zonal winds channeling through the auroral zone on the duskside is strongest in the summer season. The vorticity of the wind pattern increases from winter to summer, whereas divergence is maximum in equinox. In all three seasons, divergence is weaker than vorticity.

A vertical eigenfunction equation is solved to examine the partial reflection and partial transmission of tsunami-generated gravity waves propagating through a height-dependent background atmosphere from the ocean surface into the lower thermosphere. There are multiple turning points for each vertical eigenfunction (at least eight in one example), yet the wave transmission into the thermosphere is significant. Examples are given for gravity wave propagation through an idealized wind jet centered near the mesopause and through a realistic vertical profile of wind and temperature relevant to the tsunami generated by the Sumatra earthquake on 26 December 2004.

We examine acoustic-to-seismic coupled signals from ground-truthed explosions in northern Utah that were observed by dense seismic networks. We simulate the observed signals using both classical ray theory and the parabolic equation method in order to better understand the influence of multiscale atmospheric structures on these signals. Atmospheric models correctly predict acoustic arrival times downwind of the source, but signals are commonly observed over a much larger area than predicted using baseline models including well within the shadow zones near the source. In order to properly explain the extent of the observed infrasound wavefield in range and azimuth, the results indicate that it is necessary to account for unresolved subgrid-scale atmosphere structures. The results also clearly show the need to account for these structures in order to properly explain the observed wave signal duration. Without accounting for small-scale atmospheric structure, the infrasound signals are predicted to last 5–10 s but are observed to last 30–80 s. Furthermore, the amplitudes of the coupled signals relative to background noise vary steadily with distance in a manner that matches the computed predictions. The results show that infrasound signals retain much information about the large- and small-scale structures in the atmosphere through which they propagate suggesting that routine observations from dense regional seismic networks might also provide a novel means of atmospheric sounding.