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Consideration of crop yield variability caused by long-term climate change offers a way to quantify the interplay between climate change, crop growth, and yield. This study employed the APSIM model to simulate the potential winter wheat yield under varying climate scenarios in 1961–2100 in the Loess Plateau. It also evaluated the long-term response and adaptation differences of winter wheat yield to climate change. The results show that there is a slight downward trend in inter-annual precipitation during the winter wheat growth period, with a reduction of −2.38 mm·decade−1 under the S245 scenario (abbreviated SSP2-4.5) and −2.74 mm·decade−1 under the S585 scenario (abbreviated SSP5-8.5). Interestingly, the actual yield of winter wheat was positively correlated with precipitation during the growth period but not with temperature. By contrast, climatic yield exhibits a significant correlation with both factors, suggesting that future crop yield will largely depend on its sensitivity to climate change. In addition, climate change may marginally improve yield stability, although regional variations are evident. Notably, potential yields in water-restricted areas, such as Qinghai and Gansu, are significantly influenced by precipitation. This study provides an important reference for formulating long-term adaptation strategies to enhance the resilience of agricultural production against climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Henan Province. The analysis, under the utilization of GLASS LAI data, focuses on shifts in the planting areas of winter wheat. In addition, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in meteorological factors during the winter wheat growth period has also been conducted. The findings reveal a fluctuating increase in accumulated temperature across Henan Province, ranging from 3145 °C to 3424 °C and exhibiting a gradual rise from north to south. In particular, precipitation patterns from 1980 to 2019 showed limited significant trends, while notable abrupt changes were observed in 1983, 2004, 2009, and 2016. Geographically, southwestern Henan Province experiences greater precipitation than the northeast. Moreover, a fluctuating downward trend in sunshine hours has been observed, gradually decreasing from north to south. The study further highlights an increase in winter wheat planting frequency in the northwestern region of Luoyang and the northeastern part of Zhumadian, contrasted by a decrease in Zhengzhou and Kaifeng. Accumulated temperature is positively correlated with the expansion of winter wheat planting areas (R2 = 0.685), while sunshine hours exert a suppressive effect (R2 = 0.637). Among meteorological factors, accumulated temperature emerges as the most crucial determinant, followed by precipitation, with sunshine hours having a relatively minor influence. Yield demonstrates a positive association with accumulated temperature (R2 = 0.765) and a negative correlation with sunshine hours (R2 = −0.614). This finding is consistent with the impact of meteorological factors on winter wheat production. The results of this study enhance the understanding of how the underlying mechanisms of climate change impact crop yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]