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Cash-for care policies are contested in many contexts, as they represent an incentive for childrearing over work that may reduce labour market participation, especially among immigrant women. From 1 July 2017, immigrants (both the mother and the father) from outside the European Economic Area must have at least 5 years of residence in Norway to be entitled to cash-for-care benefits. Previous research indicates that this reform did not lead to increased labour market participation of mothers and fathers treated by the reform. In this article, we examine whether the changes in the cash-forcare benefits policy have resulted in a substantive change in income and if the reform had an impact on the childbearing behaviour among those affected by the reform. Our descriptive analyses indicate no change in employment rates and household income. To detect possible changes in fertility, we employ a Difference-in-Difference approach, in which we compare the treatment group with four comparison groups. Overall, we find no substantial effect of the cash-for-care reform on childbearing behaviour. This work was funded by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion

Early evidence demonstrates that the fertility response to the COVID-19 pandemic has varied across European countries. Yet, prior research indicates that fertility responses to disasters are often localized sub-nationally. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 incidence, economic pandemic impacts, and the affectedness by virus containment measures varied subnationally across Europe during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sub-national variation in the fertility response seems therefore possible. We conducted a rigorous data collection effort in 28 European countries (equaling 241 European sub-national regions) and used cutting-edge forecasting methods to assess sub-national variation in the fertility response to the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. While we find sub-national variation, our results reveal that the fertility response to the pandemic was dominated by the country level, with Southern European countries witnessing more negative fertility response to the early pandemic than Northern Europe. Variance decomposition even indicates a ‘nationalization’ of birth rates during the winter months of 2020, as the within- country variance in fertility declined and between-country variance increased. Nonetheless, highly urbanized areas in Europe experienced significantly steeper fertility declines as a response to the beginning of the pandemic, which is partly explained by their higher SARSCoV-2 incidence rates. SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates emerged as another important predictor of the fertility response more broadly. Higher incidences were associated with steeper fertility declines across the regions. Overall, country-level estimates represent fertility responses to the COVID-19 pandemic generally well, but the regional dimension provides additional important insight into how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted fertility.

This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Norway at the individual level. Studies using data at the macro level have found a positive short-term effect of the pandemic on fertility level in Norway, but women’s fertility response to the pandemic may differ depending on their life situation. We use the first lockdown on March 12, 2020 as a marker of the pandemic and apply a regression discontinuity design to compare births of women that were conceived before the pandemic started with those conceived during the first eight months of the pandemic. The positive effect on women’s fertility in Norway was mainly driven by women in life phases that have generally high fertility rates (women aged 28–35 years and women who already have children). These groups are likely to be in an economic and socially secure and stable situation in which the restrictions due to the pandemic had limited influence. Besides two exceptions, we do not find differences in the effect of the pandemic on childbearing by women’s work situation. This is most likely related to the strong welfare state and the generous additional pandemic-related measures taken by the Norwegian government.

As expected, birth rates have been affected across high-income countries in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Initial studies reported heterogeneous fertility responses across countries. Yet, country level assessments may mask important regional variation and paint an imprecise average picture. Regional level analyses are thus needed to deepen our understanding of the fertility response to Covid-19. Our study fills this gap. We conducted a rigorous data collection effort in 24 European countries, and report how the first pandemic wave affected birth rates across European sub-national regions. We find large sub-national regional variation in the birth rate response between December 2020 and May 2021, with more pronounced variation in countries with lower Covid-19- mortality rates during the first wave. Future analyses will formally assess regional heterogeneity in the fertility response within countries, and examine whether regional fertility response variation is predicted by regional Covid-19 infection-rates or economic indicators.

Fertility levels have historically been negatively correlated with the amount of information and material resources available to individuals and families. The recent reversal of this trend has been interpreted as a fundamental change in preferences, a return to large families led by more educated individuals. Our analysis shows, however, that the recently documented changes in fertility can be reproduced in the context of declining family size preferences across educational levels, and without assuming any transformation of the underlying behavioral mechanisms that link resources and fertility across cohorts. We demonstrate this point by replicating the stylized facts reported in previous studies using a simulated dataset. We generate this dataset from a model that assumes continuity in the way education shapes reproductive intentions over time. In our simulated population, the reversal in the relationship between education and fertility emerges as a result of the transition from a natural to a regulated fertility regime, as the share of unplanned births decreases over time, and the mechanisms that positively connect educational attainment with desired fertility become dominant. We conclude, thus, that the explanation for the weakening educational gradient of fertility lies primarily in the decline of unintended fertility, instead of in changes in fertility preferences.

Investigating fertility response to pandemic so far was focused on the country level. However, large sub-national variation in fertility is well- documented. A regional and monthly perspective is important to fully assess fertility response to the pandemic. The study aims to: a) document sub- national monthly birth rate changes in November 2020- April 2021 (first Covid-19 wave conceptions in February 2020-July 2020), by comparing observed to expected monthly birth rates (“excess births”), b) Assess the ‘significance’ of observed changes light of expected monthly birth rates (forecasts) based on modelling prior trends, and c) explore the association between NUTS2-level regions’ “excess births” and their first wave Covid-19 affectedness.

This work is jointly financed by the Ministry of Health and Care Services, Ministry of Children and Families, Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs and the Ministry of Education and Research in Norway, through a grant to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Hart’s contribution is partly supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme, project number 262700. Poor health may constrain women’s capacity for active leisure, including family life and childrearing, for participation in the labor market and potentially affect preferences. Still, health remains remarkably understudied as a fertility determinant. We explore the association between health and fertility, using uptake of doctor-certified sickness absences and long-term health-related benefits as proxies for health. We examine whether compositional changes in health distributions and/or changes in the health-fertility association have contributed to the distinct fall in the total fertility rate in Norway since 2009. We use nationwide registry data on women aged 16-45 from 2004-2018. We analyse first, second and third births separately, and use annual observations with lagged timevarying covariates for education, sickness absence and long-term benefits. Income, employment and partnership status are also included in some subanalyses. Long-term benefit uptake is negatively associated with fertility, and the association weakens over time. In addition, such uptake is relatively rare, but increases slightly over time. The use of sickness absence is positively associated with fertility, and the association strengthens over time. Sickness absence uptake is common but decreases over time. It is thus unlikely that changes in women’s health and/or changes in the health-fertility association can help explain the observed decline in fertility observed after 2009. However, if the decrease in sickness absence uptake reflects a stronger labor market preference among women in fertile ages, it might help explain parts of the observed decline. Overall, the decline in fertility is most pronounced for healthy women. Health as a fertility determinant warrants further research, from other countries and with other proxies for health.

This study investigates fertility responses to the business cycle in the Nordic countries by comparing period variation in women’s childbearing propensity. We harmonize register data from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to compare childbearing in the aftermath of the two most recent crises that hit those economies: the 1990s and 2010s. We use event-history techniques to present parity-specific fertility, by calendar year, relative to a defined pre-recession year. We further examine any possible impact of the two recessions by women’s age and education. Results show a large heterogeneity across the five Nordic countries in the childbearing developments after 1990. This variation largely disappears after 2008 when period trends in birth hazards become more similar across countries. Likewise, the educational differences that characterized the variation in childbearing relative risk after 1990 considerably diminish in the years after 2010, especially for first and second births. Economic theories do not suffice to explain this reversal from the heterogeneity of the 1990s to the homogeneity of the 2010s in the childbearing response to recession episodes across countries and socioeconomic groups. Our findings suggest the need to expand the theoretical framework explaining the cyclicality of fertility towards the perception of economic and welfare uncertainty. Beyond the Economic Gaze. Childbearing during and after recessions in the Nordic countries

The family life courses of immigrants and their descendants, particularly intermarriage and the timing of marriage and childbearing, have been widely studied as indicators of societal integration. But largely absent are investigations into the role of cohabitation in the family lives of these subpopulations. Choosing cohabitation as first union may, for instance, signal secularization and less social control. Using Norwegian register data on all first co-residential unions entered 2006-2015 among individuals born 1980 or later (N=218,833 unions, 80.5% cohabitations), we consider associations between partner choice and subsequent partnership transitions. Around half of first unions including second-generation individuals were cohabitations, among which 88% were exogamous (i.e., partners originating from different countries or with a majority partner). These exogamous cohabiting couples were more dissolution-prone and less likely to marry than endogamous immigrant and second-generation cohabiting couples. Among second-generation couples who married directly, on the other hand, 79% were endogamous. These marriages were less likely to divorce than their first-generation counterparts. Research Council of Norway (Grant #250486) Swedish Research Council (Grant #2014-1668)

Hvorfor får kvinner færre barn enn før? Denne rapporten tar utgangspunkt i nedgangen i førstefødsler og tredjefødsler, og analyserer hvilke faktorer som har bidratt til denne utviklingen. Etter årtusenskiftet økte fruktbarhetstallet fra 1,75 barn per kvinne i 2002 til 1,98 barn per kvinne i 2009. Men siden 2010 har fruktbarhetstallet falt hvert eneste år, og i 2016 var det på 1,71 barn per kvinne. Vi må tilbake til 1986 for å finne tilsvarende lave tall. Denne rapporten tar utgangspunkt i nedgangen i førstefødsler og tredjefødsler, og analyserer hvilke faktorer som har bidratt til denne utviklingen. Større økonomisk usikkerhet er en viktig forklaring for nedgangen i førstefødsler. Det gjelder blant annet den generelle økonomiske situasjonen i Norge og den enkelte kvinnens tilknytning til arbeidsmarkedet. Forskningsresultatene viser for eksempel at etter 2010 har det blitt viktigere for kvinner å være i arbeid når de får sitt første barn. Nedgangen i antallet kvinner som får tre barn, synes å være en langvarig trend på tvers av ulike grupper. I tillegg finner forskerne en akselerering i nedgangen, noe som knyttes til den lokale arbeidsledigheten.

Rapporten gir en oppdatert oversikt over norske studier på områdene fruktbarhet og samliv. Til tross for nedgang de siste årene, ligger fruktbarheten i Norge fortsatt høyere enn i de fleste andre europeiske land. Kunnskapsstatusen viser at det er en nær sammenheng mellom fruktbarheten og en rekke ulike faktorer, som sosioøkonomiske ressurser. På noen områder er det gjort flere studier enn på andre. Det er blant annet blitt gjort en rekke studier av sammenhengen mellom utdanning og fruktbarhet. De senere årene har det også vært gjort flere studier av ulike sider av samliv og parforhold og fruktbarhet. Sammenhengen mellom fruktbarhet og familiepolitikk har også vært en sentral del av fruktbarhetsforskningen. De fleste nordmenn gifter seg fortsatt, men ekteskapene inngås senere i livet. Alderen ved første samlivsinngåelse har imidlertid endret seg lite. En viktig grunn til denne utviklingen er økningen i samboerskap. De fleste nyere studier av samlivsinngåelse tar hensyn til denne utviklingen ved å inkludere samboerskap, og det er i den senere tid gjort en rekke studier av forskjeller mellom samboerskap og ekteskap. Forskningen på samlivsområdet har etter hvert også inkludert personer med innvandrerbakgrunn og likekjønnede par. Men fortsatt finnes det få studier av samboeres partnervalg og brudd blant samboerpar. Prosjektet er finansiert av Barne-, likestillings- og inkluderingsdepartementet.

This paper focuses on the realization of positive fertility intentions with different time frames. The analyses are based on a unique combination of survey data and information from Norwegian administrative registers on childbearing in the years following the complete selected sample. Guided by the theoretical and empirical framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the results suggest that a fertility intention’s time frame is relevant for childbearing behaviour, but the patterns are somewhat different for respondents who were childless at the time of the interview compared to those who already had children. Overall, childless respondents were less likely to realize their fertility intentions than parents. Following the TPB, childless individuals may underestimate the difficulty of acting on their intentions and therefore have more difficulty realizing their intentions, versus parents who take into account their ability to manage another child. The results also show that childless individuals with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to succeed than those with a longerterm intention. Likewise, parents with an immediate fertility intention are more likely to realize their intention during the two first years after the interview, but after four years the childbearing rate was higher among those with longer-term fertility intentions. Research Council of Norway (project no. 202442/S20).

This study focuses on the possible effect of gender equality and equity in the family on the transition to first, second and third births. The analysis includes the division of housework and childcare as well as the perception of whether this division is fair and just. We use a unique dataset combining data from the Norwegian GGS (2007) with information from population register on subsequent childbirths. Results indicate a varying effect of gender equality in the family on childbearing. An unequal division of housework has a negative effect on first and subsequent births. Couples were men contribute more to housework than women, have lower likelihood of first and second births compared to couples with a more typical division where women do more but men contribute substantially. In the same way, couples where the woman does almost all housework has lower likelihood of a third birth. Even though the division of childcare has no substantial impact on continued childbearing, the perception of this division is relevant for parents with one child. Couples in which the respondent perceives the division of childcare as less equitable are less likely to get a second child. Research Council of Norway (project no. 202442/S20), (grant no. 195403) NOVA

Using data on individuals born 1946 to 1972 from the Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey (N = 7,587) we examine differentials in the number and incidence of co-residential relationships by gender and socioeconomic status. Regarding number of relationships, we found that women and younger respondents more often than men and older respondents reported having had two or more unions. 10% of the men and 5% of the women had no union experience by age 35. Controlling for relevant characteristics, our multivariate results showed that high income men experienced fewer unions than lower income men. Having a low income increased the odds of remaining single among men, whereas there was a positive association between tertiary education and remaining unpartnered among women. Keywords: Cohabitation, gender, GGS, marriage, Norway, relationship career, socioeconomic resources The Research Council of Norway supported this research through Grant 194222/V20