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Ensemble forecasting has become a standard means to obtain information about forecast uncertainties in meteorological centres across the world. The large datasets generated by ensemble prediction systems carry much information that is difficult to analyse manually – here, techniques from the field of artificial intelligence can be beneficial to aid the analysis. Cluster analysis is one commonly used (unsupervised machine learning) approach to automatically determine distinct scenarios in numerical weather forecasting ensembles, both in atmospheric research and operational forecasting. Typically, a cluster analysis focusses on a selected meteorological forecast variable, a specific region, and time (or a time window). The dimensionality of the data is reduced by techniques like principal component analysis, and a clustering algorithm – typically k-means – is applied to the reduced data set. Challenges with such an approach arise through the determined clusters often being sensitive to factors including the selected region, forecast variable, and algorithm parameters, and also through the employed algorithms often appearing as a “black box” to the user. In our work, we attempt to make the clustering process more transparent by providing a visual analysis framework to analyse the sensitivity of generated clusters with respect to various factors. The presented framework is coupled to the open-source meteorological ensemble visualization software Met.3D, allowing for interactive specification of clustering parameters and for interactive visual analysis, including 3-D elements. A case study using ensemble prediction data of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is presented, demonstrating how visualizing similarity between clusterings with different parameters can aid the interpretation of the data.

Objectives Low self-compassion has repeatedly been associated with psychopathology. There are many promising face-to-face group format interventions focusing on self-compassion. We investigated the feasibility of an online self-compassion program. Design A feasibility and proof-of-concept study of an online adapted Mindfulness-based Compassionate Living (MBCL) program. Participants Self-referred participants suffering from harsh self-criticism (N = 39) were offered an online program and were asked to complete outcome measures at baseline, after 8 weeks (post-intervention) and after 14 weeks (follow-up). Intervention The online program consisted of seven sessions, including a first session introducing mindfulness and mindfulness meditation followed by a six-session adaptation of the MBCL program. Primary and secondary outcome measures The Self-Compassion Scale (SCS) was the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcome measures were the Forms of Self-criticizing/Attacking and Self-reassuring Scale (FSCRS), the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), the Comprehensive Inventory of Mindfulness Experience (CHIME), the Fear of Self-compassion (FSC), and the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (PSQ). Additionally, we assessed satisfaction with the program and negative effects related to the program. Furthermore, we used several measures of program usage (number of processed modules, number of logins, time spent in the program, number of diary entries, number of entries in completed exercises). Results Self-compassion, mindfulness, reassuring-self and satisfaction with life significantly increased whereas inadequate self, hated self, perceived stress and fear of self-compassion significantly decreased from pre- to the 8-week assessment. Results remained stable from post- to the 6-week follow-up. Pre-to-post within-effect sizes were medium to large (ds = 0.50–1.50) and comparable to those found within a face-to-face group format in a similar sample. Time spent in the program significantly predicted self-compassion at post. Conclusions The results of this pilot study are promising. However, they must be seen as preliminary since replication in a randomized controlled trial, with clinical measures/diagnoses and a longer follow-up period, is necessary., Highlights • An online intervention, based on Mindfulness-Based Compassionate Living (MBCL), showed to be feasible and led to changes in self-compassion. • Changes are maintained at 6-week follow-up. • The online intervention can be considered save and no serious negative effects were reported. • Time spent in the program significantly predicted self-compassion at 8-week assessment. • Replication in a randomized controlled trial, including clinical measures/diagnoses and a longer follow-up period, is necessary.

Objectives: Low self-compassion has repeatedly been associated with psychopathology. There are many promising face-to-face group format interventions focusing on self-compassion. We investigated the feasibility of an online self-compassion program. Design: A feasibility and proof-of-concept study of an online adapted Mindfulness-based Compassionate Living (MBCL) program. Participants: Self-referred participants suffering from harsh self-criticism (N = 39) were offered an online program and were asked to complete outcome measures at baseline, after 8 weeks (post-intervention) and after 14 weeks (follow-up). Intervention: The online program consisted of seven sessions, including a first session introducing mindfulness and mindfulness meditation followed by a six-session adaptation of the MBCL program. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The Self-Compassion Scale (SCS) was the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcome measures were the Forms of Self-criticizing/Attacking and Self-reassuring Scale (FSCRS), the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), the Comprehensive Inventory of Mindfulness Experience (CHIME), the Fear of Self-compassion (FSC), and the Perceived Stress Questionnaire (PSQ). Additionally, we assessed satisfaction with the program and negative effects related to the program. Furthermore, we used several measures of program usage (number of processed modules, number of logins, time spent in the program, number of diary entries, number of entries in completed exercises). Results: Self-compassion, mindfulness, reassuring-self and satisfaction with life significantly increased whereas inadequate self, hated self, perceived stress and fear of self-compassion significantly decreased from pre- to the 8-week assessment. Results remained stable from post- to the 6-week follow-up. Pre-to-post within-effect sizes were medium to large (ds = 0.50–1.50) and comparable to those found within a face-to-face group format in a similar sample. Time spent in the program significantly predicted self-compassion at post. Conclusions: The results of this pilot study are promising. However, they must be seen as preliminary since replication in a randomized controlled trial, with clinical measures/diagnoses and a longer follow-up period, is necessary.