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Early intervention for children with developmental delays or disabilities may prevent future need for special education services. The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) allows each state to establish criteria for eligibility for early intervention services for children younger than 3 years old (Part C) and special education services for children 3 years of age and older (Part B). Children meeting the criteria for Part B should have an Individualized Education Plan (IEP) for receiving special education and those meeting the criteria for Part C should have an Individualized Family Services Plan (IFSP) for receiving early intervention. Further, the federal Keeping Children Safe Act requires states to develop procedures for referring child maltreatment victims under 3 years old to early intervention services. According to the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being (NSCAW II), a nationally representative sample of children involved with the child welfare system (CWS), children with a condition that would potentially qualify them for Part B or C, their caregivers reported in NSCAW II that half or fewer received early intervention (IFSP) or special education (IEP) services. Unmet early intervention and special education needs are particularly large among children who are living in voluntary kinship care. Young children placed in voluntary kinship care with developmental, cognitive, or language delays identified in NSCAW assessments are significantly less likely to have an IFSP (4%) than similar children placed in nonrelative foster care (22%). Among children 3 to 17 years old, those placed in voluntary kinship care with cognitive or academic needs are significantly less likely to have an IEP (22%) than similar children placed in nonrelative foster care (54%).

We report the results of a global analysis of dark matter simplified models (DMSMs) with leptophobic mediator particles of spin one, considering the cases of both vector and axial-vector interactions with dark matter (DM) particles and quarks. We require the DMSMs to provide all the cosmological DM density indicated by Planck and other observations, and we impose the upper limits on spin-independent and -dependent scattering from direct DM search experiments. We also impose all relevant LHC constraints from searches for monojet events and measurements of the dijet mass spectrum. We model the likelihood functions for all the constraints and combine them within the MasterCode framework, and probe the full DMSM parameter spaces by scanning over the mediator and DM masses and couplings, not fixing any of the model parameters. We find, in general, two allowed regions of the parameter spaces: one in which the mediator couplings to Standard Model (SM) and DM particles may be comparable to those in the SM and the cosmological DM density is reached via resonant annihilation, and one in which the mediator couplings to quarks are $\lesssim 10^{-3}$ and DM annihilation is non-resonant. We find that the DM and mediator masses may well lie within the ranges accessible to LHC experiments. We also present predictions for spin-independent and -dependent DM scattering, and present specific results for ranges of the DM couplings that may be favoured in ultraviolet completions of the DMSMs., Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures

We present the physics program of the Belle II experiment, located on the intensity frontier SuperKEKB $e^+e^-$ collider. Belle II collected its first collisions in 2018, and is expected to operate for the next decade. It is anticipated to collect 50/ab of collision data over its lifetime. This book is the outcome of a joint effort of Belle II collaborators and theorists through the Belle II theory interface platform (B2TiP), an effort that commenced in 2014. The aim of B2TiP was to elucidate the potential impacts of the Belle II program, which includes a wide scope of physics topics: B physics, charm, tau, quarkonium, electroweak precision measurements and dark sector searches. It is composed of nine working groups (WGs), which are coordinated by teams of theorist and experimentalists conveners: Semileptonic and leptonic B decays, Radiative and Electroweak penguins, phi_1 and phi_2 (time-dependent CP violation) measurements, phi_3 measurements, Charmless hadronic B decay, Charm, Quarkonium(like), tau and low-multiplicity processes, new physics and global fit analyses. This book highlights "golden- and silver-channels", i.e. those that would have the highest potential impact in the field. Theorists scrutinised the role of those measurements and estimated the respective theoretical uncertainties, achievable now as well as prospects for the future. Experimentalists investigated the expected improvements with the large dataset expected from Belle II, taking into account improved performance from the upgraded detector., Comment: 689 pages

We present the activities of the `New Physics' working group for the `Physics at TeV Colliders' workshop (Les Houches, France, 5--23 June, 2017). Our report includes new physics studies connected with the Higgs boson and its properties, direct search strategies, reinterpretation of the LHC results in the building of viable models and new computational tool developments., Comment: Les Houches 2017 proceedings, 224 pages, many figures

We describe a likelihood analysis using MasterCode of variants of the MSSM in which the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters are assumed to have universal values at some scale $M_{in}$ below the supersymmetric grand unification scale $M_{GUT}$, as can occur in mirage mediation and other models. In addition to $M_{in}$, such `sub-GUT' models have the 4 parameters of the CMSSM, namely a common gaugino mass $m_{1/2}$, a common soft supersymmetry-breaking scalar mass $m_0$, a common trilinear mixing parameter $A$ and the ratio of MSSM Higgs vevs $\tan\beta$, assuming that the Higgs mixing parameter $\mu > 0$. We take into account constraints on strongly- and electroweakly-interacting sparticles from $\sim 36$/fb of LHC data at 13 TeV and the LUX and 2017 PICO, XENON1T and PandaX-II searches for dark matter scattering, in addition to the previous LHC and dark matter constraints as well as full sets of flavour and electroweak constraints. We find a preference for $M_{in} \sim 10^5$ to $10^9$ GeV, with $M_{in} \sim M_{GUT}$ disfavoured by $\Delta \chi^2 \sim 3$ due to the ${\rm BR}(B_{s, d} \to \mu^+\mu^-)$ constraint. The lower limits on strongly-interacting sparticles are largely determined by LHC searches, and similar to those in the CMSSM. We find a preference for the LSP to be a Bino or Higgsino with $\tilde{\chi^0_1} \sim 1$ TeV, with annihilation via heavy Higgs bosons $H/A$ and stop coannihilation, or chargino coannihilation, bringing the cold dark matter density into the cosmological range. We find that spin-independent dark matter scattering is likely to be within reach of the planned LUX-Zeplin and XENONnT experiments. We probe the impact of the $(g-2)_\mu$ constraint, finding similar results whether or not it is included., Comment: 30 pages, 15 figures, 42 plots, 4 tables. Exploratory study considering \mu < 0

We use MasterCode to perform a frequentist analysis of the constraints on a phenomenological MSSM model with 11 parameters, the pMSSM11, including constraints from ~ 36/fb of LHC data at 13 TeV and PICO, XENON1T and PandaX-II searches for dark matter scattering, as well as previous accelerator and astrophysical measurements, presenting fits both with and without the $(g-2)_{\mu}$ constraint. The pMSSM11 is specified by the following parameters: 3 gaugino masses $M_{1,2,3}$, a common mass for the first-and second-generation squarks $m_{\tilde{q}}$ and a distinct third-generation squark mass $m_{\tilde{q}_3}$, a common mass for the first-and second-generation sleptons $m_{\tilde l}$ and a distinct third-generation slepton mass $m_{\tilde \tau}$, a common trilinear mixing parameter $A$, the Higgs mixing parameter $\mu$, the pseudoscalar Higgs mass $M_A$ and $\tan\beta$. In the fit including $(g-2)_{\mu}$, a Bino-like $\tilde\chi^0_1$ is preferred, whereas a Higgsino-like $\tilde \chi^0_1$ is favoured when the $(g-2)_{\mu}$ constraint is dropped. We identify the mechanisms that operate in different regions of the pMSSM11 parameter space to bring the relic density of the lightest neutralino, $\tilde\chi^0_1$, into the range indicated by cosmological data. In the fit including $(g-2)_{\mu}$, coannihilations with $\tilde \chi^0_2$ and the Wino-like $\tilde\chi^{\pm}_1$ or with nearly-degenerate first- and second-generation sleptons are favoured, whereas coannihilations with the $\tilde \chi^0_2$ and the Higgsino-like $\tilde\chi^{\pm}_1$ or with first- and second-generation squarks may be important when the $(g-2)_{\mu}$ constraint is dropped. Prospects remain for discovering strongly-interacting sparticles at the LHC as well as for discovering electroweakly-interacting sparticles at a future linear $e^+ e^-$ collider such as the ILC or CLIC., Comment: 48 pages, 24 figures, 65 plots, 6 tables; version published on EPJC

We perform a likelihood analysis of the minimal Anomaly-Mediated Supersymmetry Breaking (mAMSB) model using constraints from cosmology and accelerator experiments. We find that a wino-like or a Higgsino-like neutralino LSP, $m_{\tilde \chi^0_{1}}$, may provide the cold dark matter (DM) with similar likelihood. The upper limit on the DM density from Planck and other experiments enforces $m_{\tilde \chi^0_{1}} \lesssim 3~TeV$ after the inclusion of Sommerfeld enhancement in its annihilations. If most of the cold DM density is provided by the $\tilde \chi_0^1$, the measured value of the Higgs mass favours a limited range of $\tan \beta \sim 5$ (or for $\mu > 0$, $\tan \beta \sim 45$) but the scalar mass $m_0$ is poorly constrained. In the wino-LSP case, $m_{3/2}$ is constrained to about $900~TeV$ and ${m_{\tilde \chi^0_{1}}}$ to $2.9\pm0.1~TeV$, whereas in the Higgsino-LSP case $m_{3/2}$ has just a lower limit $\gtrsim 650TeV$ ($\gtrsim 480TeV$) and $m_{\tilde \chi^0_{1}}$ is constrained to $1.12 ~(1.13) \pm0.02~TeV$ in the $\mu>0$ ($\mu<0$) scenario. In neither case can the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, ${(g-2)_\mu}$, be improved significantly relative to its Standard Model (SM) value, nor do flavour measurements constrain the model significantly, and there are poor prospects for discovering supersymmetric particles at the LHC, {though there} are some prospects for direct DM detection. On the other hand, if the ${m_{\tilde \chi^0_{1}}}$ contributes only a fraction of the cold DM density, {future LHC $E_T$-based searches for gluinos, squarks and heavier chargino and neutralino states as well as disappearing track searches in the wino-like LSP region will be relevant}, and interference effects enable ${\rm BR}(B_{s, d} \to \mu^+\mu^-)$ to agree with the data better than in the SM in the case of wino-like DM with $\mu > 0$.

We perform a likelihood analysis of the constraints from accelerator experiments and astrophysical observations on supersymmetric (SUSY) models with SU(5) boundary conditions on soft SUSY-breaking parameters at the GUT scale. The parameter space of the models studied has 7 parameters: a universal gaugino mass $m_{1/2}$, distinct masses for the scalar partners of matter fermions in five- and ten-dimensional representations of SU(5), $m_5$ and $m_{10}$, and for the $\mathbf{5}$ and $\mathbf{\bar 5}$ Higgs representations $m_{H_u}$ and $m_{H_d}$, a universal trilinear soft SUSY-breaking parameter $A_0$, and the ratio of Higgs vevs $\tan \beta$. In addition to previous constraints from direct sparticle searches, low-energy and flavour observables, we incorporate constraints based on preliminary results from 13 TeV LHC searches for jets + MET events and long-lived particles, as well as the latest PandaX-II and LUX searches for direct Dark Matter detection. In addition to previously-identified mechanisms for bringing the supersymmetric relic density into the range allowed by cosmology, we identify a novel ${\tilde u_R}/{\tilde c_R} - \tilde{\chi}^0_1$ coannihilation mechanism that appears in the supersymmetric SU(5) GUT model and discuss the role of ${\tilde \nu_\tau}$ coannihilation. We find complementarity between the prospects for direct Dark Matter detection and SUSY searches at the LHC., Comment: 38 pages, 22 figures, version published on EPJC

Different mechanisms operate in various regions of the MSSM parameter space to bring the relic density of the lightest neutralino, neutralino_1, assumed here to be the LSP and thus the Dark Matter (DM) particle, into the range allowed by astrophysics and cosmology. These mechanisms include coannihilation with some nearly-degenerate next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP) such as the lighter stau (stau_1), stop (stop_1) or chargino (chargino_1), resonant annihilation via direct-channel heavy Higgs bosons H/A, the light Higgs boson h or the Z boson, and enhanced annihilation via a larger Higgsino component of the LSP in the focus-point region. These mechanisms typically select lower-dimensional subspaces in MSSM scenarios such as the CMSSM, NUHM1, NUHM2 and pMSSM10. We analyze how future LHC and direct DM searches can complement each other in the exploration of the different DM mechanisms within these scenarios. We find that the stau_1 coannihilation regions of the CMSSM, NUHM1, NUHM2 can largely be explored at the LHC via searches for missing E_T events and long-lived charged particles, whereas their H/A funnel, focus-point and chargino_1 coannihilation regions can largely be explored by the LZ and Darwin DM direct detection experiments. We find that the dominant DM mechanism in our pMSSM10 analysis is chargino_1 coannihilation: {parts of its parameter space can be explored by the LHC, and a larger portion by future direct DM searches., Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures

We present a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the pMSSM10, in which the following 10 soft SUSY-breaking parameters are specified independently at the mean scalar top mass scale Msusy = Sqrt[M_stop1 M_stop2]: the gaugino masses M_{1,2,3}, the 1st-and 2nd-generation squark masses M_squ1 = M_squ2, the third-generation squark mass M_squ3, a common slepton mass M_slep and a common trilinear mixing parameter A, the Higgs mixing parameter mu, the pseudoscalar Higgs mass M_A and tan beta. We use the MultiNest sampling algorithm with 1.2 x 10^9 points to sample the pMSSM10 parameter space. A dedicated study shows that the sensitivities to strongly-interacting SUSY masses of ATLAS and CMS searches for jets, leptons + MET signals depend only weakly on many of the other pMSSM10 parameters. With the aid of the Atom and Scorpion codes, we also implement the LHC searches for EW-interacting sparticles and light stops, so as to confront the pMSSM10 parameter space with all relevant SUSY searches. In addition, our analysis includes Higgs mass and rate measurements using the HiggsSignals code, SUSY Higgs exclusion bounds, the measurements B-physics observables, EW precision observables, the CDM density and searches for spin-independent DM scattering. We show that the pMSSM10 is able to provide a SUSY interpretation of (g-2)_mu, unlike the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2. As a result, we find (omitting Higgs rates) that the minimum chi^2/dof = 20.5/18 in the pMSSM10, corresponding to a chi^2 probability of 30.8 %, to be compared with chi^2/dof = 32.8/24 (31.1/23) (30.3/22) in the CMSSM (NUHM1) (NUHM2). We display 1-dimensional likelihood functions for SUSY masses, and show that they may be significantly lighter in the pMSSM10 than in the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2. We discuss the discovery potential of future LHC runs, e+e- colliders and direct detection experiments., Comment: 47 pages, 29 figures

We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the NUHM2, in which the soft supersymmetry (SUSY)-breaking contributions to the masses of the two Higgs multiplets, $m^2_{H_{u,d}}$, vary independently from the universal soft SUSY-breaking contributions $m^2_0$ to the masses of squarks and sleptons. Our analysis uses the MultiNest sampling algorithm with over $4 \times 10^8$ points to sample the NUHM2 parameter space. It includes the ATLAS and CMS Higgs mass measurements as well as their searches for supersymmetric jets + MET signals using the full LHC Run~1 data, the measurements of $B_s \to \mu^+ \mu^-$ by LHCb and CMS together with other B-physics observables, electroweak precision observables and the XENON100 and LUX searches for spin-independent dark matter scattering. We find that the preferred regions of the NUHM2 parameter space have negative SUSY-breaking scalar masses squared for squarks and sleptons, $m_0^2 < 0$, as well as $m^2_{H_u} < m^2_{H_d} < 0$. The tension present in the CMSSM and NUHM1 between the supersymmetric interpretation of $g_\mu - 2$ and the absence to date of SUSY at the LHC is not significantly alleviated in the NUHM2. We find that the minimum $\chi^2 = 32.5$ with 21 degrees of freedom (dof) in the NUHM2, to be compared with $\chi^2/{\rm dof} = 35.0/23$ in the CMSSM, and $\chi^2/{\rm dof} = 32.7/22$ in the NUHM1. We find that the one-dimensional likelihood functions for sparticle masses and other observables are similar to those found previously in the CMSSM and NUHM1., Comment: 20 pages latex, 13 figures

We present the activities of the "New Physics" working group for the "Physics at TeV Colliders" workshop (Les Houches, France, 3--21 June, 2013). Our report includes new computational tool developments, studies of the implications of the Higgs boson discovery on new physics, important signatures for searches for natural new physics at the LHC, new studies of flavour aspects of new physics, and assessments of the interplay between direct dark matter searches and the LHC., Comment: Proceedings of the New Physics Working Group of the 2013 Les Houches Workshop, Physics at TeV Colliders, Les Houches 3-21 June 2013. 201 pages

We analyze the impact of data from the full Run 1 of the LHC at 7 and 8 TeV on the CMSSM with mu > 0 and < 0 and the NUHM1 with mu > 0, incorporating the constraints imposed by other experiments such as precision electroweak measurements, flavour measurements, the cosmological density of cold dark matter and the direct search for the scattering of dark matter particles in the LUX experiment. We use the following results from the LHC experiments: ATLAS searches for events with MET accompanied by jets with the full 7 and 8 TeV data, the ATLAS and CMS measurements of the mass of the Higgs boson, the CMS searches for heavy neutral Higgs bosons and a combination of the LHCb and CMS measurements of B_s to mu+mu- and B_d to mu+mu-. Our results are based on samplings of the parameter spaces of the CMSSM for both mu>0 and mu<0 and of the NUHM1 for mu > 0 with 6.8 x 10^6, 6.2 x 10^6 and 1.6 x 10^7 points, respectively, obtained using the MultiNest tool. The impact of the Higgs mass constraint is assessed using FeynHiggs 2.10.0, which provides an improved prediction for the masses of the MSSM Higgs bosons in the region of heavy squark masses. It yields in general larger values of M_h than previous versions of FeynHiggs, reducing the pressure on the CMSSM and NUHM1. We find that the global chi^2 functions for the supersymmetric models vary slowly over most of the parameter spaces allowed by the Higgs mass and the MET searches, with best-fit values that are comparable to the chi^2/dof for the best Standard Model fit. We provide 95% CL lower limits on the masses of various sparticles and assess the prospects for observing them during Run 2 of the LHC., Comment: 28 pages, 40 figures

We discuss the allowed parameter spaces of supersymmetric scenarios in light of improved Higgs mass predictions provided by FeynHiggs 2.10.0. The Higgs mass predictions combine Feynman-diagrammatic results with a resummation of leading and subleading logarithmic corrections from the stop/top sector, which yield a significant improvement in the region of large stop masses. Scans in the pMSSM parameter space show that, for given values of the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters, the new logarithmic contributions beyond the two-loop order implemented in FeynHiggs tend to give larger values of the light CP-even Higgs mass, M_h, in the region of large stop masses than previous predictions that were based on a fixed-order Feynman-diagrammatic result, though the differences are generally consistent with the previous estimates of theoretical uncertainties. We re-analyze the parameter spaces of the CMSSM, NUHM1 and NUHM2, taking into account also the constraints from CMS and LHCb measurements of B_s to \mu+\mu- and ATLAS searches for MET events using 20/fb of LHC data at 8 TeV. Within the CMSSM, the Higgs mass constraint disfavours tan beta lesssim 10, though not in the NUHM1 or NUHM2., Comment: 22 pages, 17 figures

We developed an online database, ExprTargetDB, of human miRNA targets predicted by an approach that integrates gene expression profiling into a broader framework involving important features of miRNA target site predictions.

High-confidence prediction of complex traits such as disease risk or drug response is an ultimate goal of personalized medicine. Although genome-wide association studies have discovered thousands of well-replicated polymorphisms associated with a broad spectrum of complex traits, the combined predictive power of these associations for any given trait is generally too low to be of clinical relevance. We propose a novel systems approach to complex trait prediction, which leverages and integrates similarity in genetic, transcriptomic or other omics-level data. We translate the omic similarity into phenotypic similarity using a method called Kriging, commonly used in geostatistics and machine learning. Our method called OmicKriging emphasizes the use of a wide variety of systems-level data, such as those increasingly made available by comprehensive surveys of the genome, transcriptome and epigenome, for complex trait prediction. Furthermore, our OmicKriging framework allows easy integration of prior information on the function of subsets of omics-level data from heterogeneous sources without the sometimes heavy computational burden of Bayesian approaches. Using seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we show that OmicKriging allows simple integration of sparse and highly polygenic components yielding comparable performance at a fraction of the computing time of a recently published Bayesian sparse linear mixed model method. Using a cellular growth phenotype, we show that integrating mRNA and microRNA expression data substantially increases performance over either dataset alone. We also integrate genotype and expression data to predict change in LDL cholesterol levels after statin treatment and show that OmicKriging performs better than the polygenic score method. We provide an R package to implement OmicKriging.

We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of the CMSSM and NUHM1, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with 95 (221) million points to sample the CMSSM (NUHM1) parameter spaces. Our analysis includes the ATLAS search for supersymmetric jets + MET signals using ~ 5/fb of LHC data at 7 TeV, which we apply using PYTHIA and a Delphes implementation that we validate in the relevant parameter regions of the CMSSM and NUHM1. Our analysis also includes the constraint imposed by searches for B_s to mu+mu- by LHCb, CMS, ATLAS and CDF, and the limit on spin-independent dark matter scattering from 225 live days of XENON100 data. We assume M_h ~ 125 GeV, and use a full set of electroweak precision and other flavour-physics observables, as well as the cold dark matter density constraint. The ATLAS 5/fb constraint has relatively limited effects on the 68 and 95% CL regions in the (m_0, m_1/2) planes of the CMSSM and NUHM1. The new B_s to mu+mu- constraint has greater impacts on these CL regions, and also impacts significantly the 68 and 95% CL regions in the (M_A, tan beta) planes of both models, reducing the best-fit values of tan beta. The recent XENON100 data eliminate the focus-point region in the CMSSM and affect the 68 and 95% CL regions in the NUHM1. In combination, these new constraints reduce the best-fit values of m_0, m_1/2 in the CMSSM, and increase the global chi^2 from 31.0 to 32.8, reducing the p-value from 12% to 8.5%. In the case of the NUHM1, they have little effect on the best-fit values of m_0, m_1/2, but increase the global chi^2 from 28.9 to 31.3, thereby reducing the p-value from 15% to 9.1%., Comment: 27 pages, 17 pdf figures

We present a set of recommendations for the presentation of LHC results on searches for new physics, which are aimed at providing a more efficient flow of scientific information between the experimental collaborations and the rest of the high energy physics community, and at facilitating the interpretation of the results in a wide class of models. Implementing these recommendations would aid the full exploitation of the physics potential of the LHC., Comment: 17 pages, no figures; v2: author added

We present the activities of the "New Physics" working group for the "Physics at TeV Colliders" workshop (Les Houches, France, 30 May-17 June, 2011). Our report includes new agreements on formats for interfaces between computational tools, new tool developments, important signatures for searches at the LHC, recommendations for presentation of LHC search results, as well as additional phenomenological studies., Comment: 243 pages, report of the Les Houches 2011 New Physics Group; fix three figures

Global frequentist fits to the CMSSM and NUHM1 using the MasterCode framework predicted m_h \simeq 119 GeV in fits incorporating the g_mu-2 constraint and \simeq 126 GeV without it. Recent results by ATLAS and CMS could be compatible with a Standard Model-like Higgs boson around m_h \simeq 125 GeV. We use the previous MasterCode analysis to calculate the likelihood for a measurement of any nominal Higgs mass within the range of 115 to 130 GeV. Assuming a Higgs mass measurement at m_h \simeq 125 GeV, we display updated global likelihood contours in the (m_0, m_{1/2}) and other parameter planes of the CMSSM and NUHM1, and present updated likelihood functions for m_gluino, m_squark, B to mu mu, and the spin-independent dark matter cross section \sigma^si. The implications of dropping g_mu-2 from the fits are also discussed. We furthermore comment on a hypothetical measurement of m_h \simeq 119 GeV., Comment: 18 pages, 30 figures final version to be published in EPJC

We update previous frequentist analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1 parameter spaces to include the public results of searches for supersymmetric signals using ~1 /fb of LHC data recorded by ATLAS and CMS and ~0.3/fb of data recorded by LHCb in addition to electroweak precision and B-physics observables. We also include the constraints imposed by the cosmological dark matter density and the XENON100 search for spin-independent dark matter scattering. The LHC data set includes ATLAS and CMS searches for jets + missing ET events and for the heavier MSSM Higgs bosons, and the upper limits on B_s to mu^+ mu^- from LHCb and CMS. The absences of jets + missing ET signals in the LHC data favour heavier mass spectra than in our previous analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1, which may be reconciled with (g-2)_mu if tan beta ~ 40, a possibility that is however under pressure from heavy Higgs searches and the upper limits on B_s to mu^+ mu^-. As a result, the p-value for the CMSSM fit is reduced to ~ 15 (38)%, and that for the NUHM1 to ~ 16 (38)%, to be compared with ~ 9 (49)% for the Standard Model limit of the CMSSM for the same set of observables (dropping (g-2)_mu), ignoring the dark matter relic density in both cases. We discuss the sensitivities of the fits to the (g-2)_mu and b to s gamma constraints, contrasting fits with and without the (g-2)_mu constraint, and combining the theoretical and experimental errors for b to s gamma linearly or in quadrature. We present predictions for m_gluino, B_s to mu^+ mu^-, M_h and M_A, and update predictions for spin-independent dark matter scattering, stressing again the importance of taking into account the uncertainty in the pi-nucleon sigma term, Sigma_{pi N}. Finally, we present predictions based on our fits for the likely thresholds for sparticle pair production in e^+e^- collisions in the CMSSM and NUHM1., Comment: 25 pages, 36 figures

We make frequentist analyses of the CMSSM, NUHM1, VCMSSM and mSUGRA parameter spaces taking into account all the public results of searches for supersymmetry using data from the 2010 LHC run and the Xenon100 direct search for dark matter scattering. The LHC data set includes ATLAS and CMS searches for jets + ETslash events (with or without leptons) and for the heavier MSSM Higgs bosons, and the upper limit on bs to mu mu including data from LHCb as well as CDF and D0. The absences of signals in the LHC data favour somewhat heavier mass spectra than in our previous analyses of the CMSSM, NUHM1 and VCMSSM, and somewhat smaller dark matter scattering cross sections, all close to or within the pre-LHC 68% CL ranges, but do not impact significantly the favoured regions of the mSUGRA parameter space. We also discuss the impact of the Xenon100 constraint on spin-independent dark matter scattering, stressing the importance of taking into account the uncertainty in the pi-nucleon sigma term, that affects the spin-independent scattering matrix element, and we make predictions for spin-dependent dark matter scattering. Finally, we discuss briefly the potential impact of the updated predictions for sparticle masses in the CMSSM, NUHM1, VCMSSM and mSUGRA on future e+ e- colliders., Comment: 27 pages, 14 figures

The CMS and ATLAS Collaborations have recently published the results of initial direct LHC searches for supersymmetry analyzing ~ 35/pb of data taken at 7 TeV in the centre of mass. We incorporate these results into a frequentist analysis of the probable ranges of parameters of simple versions of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM), namely the constrained MSSM (CMSSM), a model with common non-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1), the very constrained MSSM (VCMSSM) and minimal supergravity (mSUGRA). We present updated predictions for the gluino mass, m_gl, the light Higgs boson mass, M_h, BR(B_s to mu mu) and the spin-independent dark matter scattering cross section, sigma_SI. The CMS and ATLAS data make inroads into the CMSSM, NUHM1 and VCMSSM (but not mSUGRA) parameter spaces, thereby strengthening previous lower limits on sparticle masses and upper limits on sigma_SI in the CMSSM and VCMSSM. The favoured ranges of BR(B_s to mu mu) in the CMSSM, VCMSSM and mSUGRA are close to the Standard Model, but considerably larger values of BR(B_s to mu mu) are possible in the NUHM1. Applying the CMS and ATLAS constraints improves the consistency of the model predictions for M_h with the LEP exclusion limits., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures

We make a frequentist analysis of the parameter space of minimal supergravity (mSUGRA), in which, as well as the gaugino and scalar soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters being universal, there is a specific relation between the trilinear, bilinear and scalar supersymmetry-breaking parameters, A_0 = B_0 + m_0, and the gravitino mass is fixed by m_{3/2} = m_0. We also consider a more general model, in which the gravitino mass constraint is relaxed (the VCMSSM). We combine in the global likelihood function the experimental constraints from low-energy electroweak precision data, the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, the lightest Higgs boson mass M_h, B physics and the astrophysical cold dark matter density, assuming that the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) is a neutralino. In the VCMSSM, we find a preference for values of m_{1/2} and m_0 similar to those found previously in frequentist analyses of the constrained MSSM (CMSSM) and a model with common non-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1). On the other hand, in mSUGRA we find two preferred regions: one with larger values of both m_{1/2} and m_0 than in the VCMSSM, and one with large m_0 but small m_{1/2}. We compare the probabilities of the frequentist fits in mSUGRA, the VCMSSM, the CMSSM and the NUHM1: the probability that mSUGRA is consistent with the present data is significantly less than in the other models. We also discuss the mSUGRA and VCMSSM predictions for sparticle masses and other observables, identifying potential signatures at the LHC and elsewhere., Comment: 18 pages 27 figures

We study the problem of selecting between different mechanisms of supersymmetry breaking in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model using current data. We evaluate the Bayesian evidence of four supersymmetry breaking scenarios: mSUGRA, mGMSB, mAMSB and moduli mediation. The results show a strong dependence on the dark matter assumption. Using the inferred cosmological relic density as an upper bound, minimal anomaly mediation is at least moderately favoured over the CMSSM. Our fits also indicate that evidence for a positive sign of the mu parameter is moderate at best. We present constraints on the anomaly and gauge mediated parameter spaces and some previously unexplored aspects of the dark matter phenomenology of the moduli mediation scenario. We use sparticle searches, indirect observables and dark matter observables in the global fit and quantify robustness with respect to prior choice. We quantify how much information is contained within each constraint., Comment: 38 pages, 11 figures. Version 3: comment on relic density likelihood added

We present global fits to the Large Volume Scenario (LVS) of string models using current indirect data. We use WMAP5 constraints on dark matter relic density, b-physics and electroweak observables as well as direct search constraints. Such data can be adequately fit by LVS, with the best-fit point for mu>0 having chi^2=13.6 for 8 degrees of freedom. The resulting constraints on parameter space are robust in that they do not depend much upon the prior, or upon whether one uses Bayesian or frequentist interpretations of the data. Sparticle masses are constrained to be well below the 1 TeV level, predicting early SUSY discovery at the LHC. We devise a method of quantifying which are the most important constraints. We find that the LEP2 Higgs mass constraint, the relic density of dark matter and the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon affect the fits to the strongest degree., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures