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While the Lomb-Scargle periodogram is foundational to astronomy, it has a significant shortcoming: the variance in the estimated power spectrum does not decrease as more data are acquired. Statisticians have a 60-year history of developing variance-suppressing power spectrum estimators, but most are not used in astronomy because they are formulated for time series with uniform observing cadence and without seasonal or daily gaps. Here we demonstrate how to apply the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to spacecraft data with uniform time intervals between observations but missing data during thruster fires or momentum dumps. The F-test for harmonic components may be applied to multitaper power spectrum estimates to identify statistically significant oscillations that would not rise above a white noise-based false alarm probability. Multitapering improves the dynamic range of the power spectrum estimate and suppresses spectral window artifacts. We show that the multitaper - F-test combination applied to Kepler observations of KIC 6102338 detects differential rotation without requiring iterative sinusoid fitting and subtraction. Significant signals reside at harmonics of both fundamental rotation frequencies and suggest an antisolar rotation profile. Next we use the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to identify the oscillation modes responsible for the complex "scallop shell" shape of the K2 light curve of EPIC 203354381. We argue that multitaper power spectrum estimators should be used for all time series with regular observing cadence., Comment: 27 pages, including 15 figures, published in AJ. While this version focuses exclusively on multitaper power spectrum estimation, v1 also demonstrated multitaper magnitude-squared coherence (MSC) and complex demodulation (CDM) for spacecraft data. Separate manuscripts documenting MSC and CDM are in preparation

If Doppler searches for earth-mass, habitable planets are to succeed, observers must be able to identify and model out stellar activity signals. Here we demonstrate how to diagnose activity signals by calculating the magnitude-squared coherence $\hat{C}^2_{xy}(f)$ between an activity indicator time series $x_t$ and the radial velocity (RV) time series $y_t$. Since planets only cause modulation in RV, not in activity indicators, a high value of $\hat{C}^2_{xy}(f)$ indicates that the signal at frequency $f$ has a stellar origin. We use Welch's method to measure coherence between activity indicators and RVs in archival observations of GJ 581, alpha Cen B, and GJ 3998. High RV-H$\alpha$ coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998 b, and high RV-S index coherence at the frequency of GJ 3998 c, indicate that the planets may actually be stellar signals. We also replicate previous results showing that GJ 581 d and g are rotation harmonics and demonstrate that alpha Cen B has activity signals that are not associated with rotation. Welch's power spectrum estimates have cleaner spectral windows than Lomb-Scargle periodograms, improving our ability to estimate rotation periods. We find that the rotation period of GJ 581 is 132 days, with no evidence of differential rotation. Welch's method may yield unacceptably large bias for datasets with $N < 75$ observations and works best on datasets with $N > 100$. Tapering the time-domain data can reduce the bias of the Welch's power spectrum estimator, but observers should not apply tapers to datasets with extremely uneven observing cadence. A software package for calculating magnitude-squared coherence and Welch's power spectrum estimates is available on github., Comment: Submitted to AJ, responded to input from referee. 35 pages (29 in main body of article) include 21 figures

Based on the interstellar CO/H2 ratio, carbon monoxide-based censuses of protoplanetary disks in Lupus, sigma Orionis, and Chamaeleon I found no disks more massive than the minimum-mass solar nebula, which is inconsistent with the existence of exoplanets more massive than Jupiter. Observations and models are converging on the idea that ionization-driven chemistry depletes carbon monoxide in T-Tauri disks. Yet the extent of CO depletion depends on the incident flux of ionizing radiation, and some T-Tauri stars may have winds strong enough to shield their disks from cosmic rays. There is also a range of X-ray luminosities possible for a given stellar mass. Here we use a suite of chemical models, each with a different incident X-ray or cosmic-ray flux, to assess whether CO depletion is a typical outcome for T-Tauri disks. We find that CO dissociation in the outer disk is a robust result for realistic ionization rates, with abundance reductions between 70% and 99.99% over 2 Myr of evolution. Furthermore, after the initial dissociation epoch, the inner disk shows some recovery of the CO abundance from CO2 dissociation. In highly ionized disks, CO recovery in the inner disk combined with depletion in the outer disk creates a centrally peaked CO abundance distribution. The emitting area in rare CO isotopologues may be an indirect ionization indicator: in a cluster of disks with similar ages, those with the most compact CO isotopologue emission see the highest ionization rates., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

In spite of making a small contribution to total protoplanetary disk mass, dust affects the disk temperature by controlling absorption of starlight. As grains grow from their initial ISM-like size distribution, settling depletes the disk's upper layers of dust and decreases the optical depth, cooling the interior. Here we investigate the effect of collisional growth of dust grains and their dynamics on the thermal and optical profile of the disk, and explore the possibility that cooling induced by grain growth and settling could lead to gravitational instability. We develop a Monte Carlo dust collision model with a weighting technique and allow particles to collisionally evolve through sticking and fragmentation, along with vertical settling and turbulent mixing. We explore two disk models, the MMEN (minimum-mass extrasolar nebula), and a "heavy" disk with higher surface density than the MMEN, and perform simulations for both constant and spatially variable turbulence efficiency profile $\alpha(R,z)$. We then calculate mean wavelength-dependent opacities for the evolving disks and perform radiative transfer to calculate the temperature profile $T(R,z)$. Finally, we calculate the Toomre Q parameter, a measure of the disk's stability against self-gravity, for each disk model after it reaches a steady state dust-size distribution. We find that even weak turbulence can keep sub-micron sized particles stirred in the disk's upper layer, affecting its optical and thermal profiles, and the growth of large particles in the midplane can make a massive disk optically thick at millimeter wavelengths, making it difficult to calculate the surface density of dust available for planet formation in the inner disk. Also, for an initially massive disk, grain settling and growth can produce a drop in the Toomre Q parameter, driving the disk to $Q < 1.4$ and possibly triggering spiral instabilities., Comment: 27 pages, 21 Figures, Under Review (ApJ)

A pileup near 1~AU in the semimajor axis distribution of giant exoplanets has been visually identified using log-spaced distribution plots. Here we propose that looking for features in a log-spaced semimajor axis distribution of giant planets is problematic. We use the Bayesian Blocks algorithm to analyze the linear-spaced semimajor axis distribution, and find that the apparent pileup is not significant., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure, accepted to RNAAS Feb 8, 2018

The semimajor axis distribution of giant exoplanets appears to have a pileup near 1 AU. Photoevaporation opens a gap in the inner few AU of gaseous disks before dissipating them. Here we investigate whether photoevaporation can significantly affect the final distribution of giant planets by modifying gas surface density and hence Type II migration rates near the photoevaporation gap. We first use an analytic disk model to demonstrate that newly-formed giant planets have a long migration epoch before photoevaporation can significantly alter their migration rates. Next we present new 2-D hydrodynamic simulations of planets migrating in photoevaporating disks, each paired with a control simulation of migration in an otherwise identical disk without photoevaporation. We show that in disks with surface densities near the minimum threshold for forming giant planets, photoevaporation alters the final semimajor axis of a migrating gas giant by at most 5% over the course of 0.1 Myr of migration. Once the disk mass is low enough for photoevaporation to carve a sharp gap, migration has almost completely stalled due to the low surface density of gas at the Lindblad resonances. We find that photoevaporation modifies migration rates so little that it is unlikely to leave a significant signature on the distribution of giant exoplanets., Comment: Main text: 31 pages including 10 figures, Appendix + Bibliography: 10 pages. Accepted to ApJ January 24, 2018

Turbulence is the leading candidate for angular momentum transport in protoplanetary disks and therefore influences disk lifetimes and planet formation timescales. However, the turbulent properties of protoplanetary disks are poorly constrained observationally. Recent studies have found turbulent speeds smaller than what fully-developed MRI would produce (Flaherty et al. 2015, 2017). However, existing studies assumed a constant CO/H2 ratio of 0.0001 in locations where CO is not frozen-out or photo-dissociated. Our previous studies of evolving disk chemistry indicate that CO is depleted by incorporation into complex organic molecules well inside the freeze-out radius of CO. We consider the effects of this chemical depletion on measurements of turbulence. Simon et al. (2015) suggested that the ratio of the peak line flux to the flux at line center of the CO J=3-2 transition is a reasonable diagnostic of turbulence, so we focus on that metric, while adding some analysis of the more complex effects on spatial distribution. We simulate the emission lines of CO based on chemical evolution models presented in Yu et al. (2016), and find that the peak-to-trough ratio changes as a function of time as CO is destroyed. Specifically, a CO-depleted disk with high turbulent velocity mimics the peak-to-trough ratios of a non-CO-depleted disk with lower turbulent velocity. We suggest that disk observers and modelers take into account the possibility of CO depletion when using line peak-to-trough ratios to constrain the degree of turbulence in disks. Assuming that CO/H2 = 0.0001 at all disk radii can lead to underestimates of turbulent speeds in the disk by at least 0.2 km/s., Comment: 12 pages, including 10 figures. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal. Revised following comments from community

Gas in protostellar disks provides the raw material for giant planet formation and controls the dynamics of the planetesimal-building dust grains. Accurate gas mass measurements help map the observed properties of planet-forming disks onto the formation environments of known exoplanets. Rare isotopologues of carbon monoxide (CO) have been used as gas mass tracers for disks in the Lupus star-forming region, with an assumed interstellar CO/H$_2$ abundance ratio. Unfortunately, observations of T-Tauri disks show that CO abundance is not interstellar---a finding reproduced by models that show CO abundance decreasing both with distance from the star and as a function of time. Here we present radiative transfer simulations that assess the accuracy of CO-based disk mass measurements. We find that the combination of CO chemical depletion in the outer disk and optically thick emission from the inner disk leads observers to underestimate gas mass by more than an order of magnitude if they use the standard assumptions of interstellar CO/H$_2$ ratio and optically thin emission. Furthermore, CO abundance changes on million-year timescales, introducing an age/mass degeneracy into observations. To reach factor of a few accuracy for CO-based disk mass measurements, we suggest that observers and modelers adopt the following strategies: (1) select the low-$J$ transitions; (2) observe multiple CO isotopologues and use either intensity ratios or normalized line profiles to diagnose CO chemical depletion; and (3) use spatially resolved observations to measure the CO abundance distribution., Comment: 22 pages, 16 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJ

Observations from the Herschel Space Observatory have more than doubled the number of wide debris disks orbiting Sunlike stars to include over 30 systems with R > 100 AU. Here we present new Herschel PACS and re-analyzed Spitzer MIPS photometry of five Sunlike stars with wide debris disks, from Kuiper belt size to R > 150 AU. The disk surrounding HD 105211 is well resolved, with an angular extent of >14" along the major axis, and the disks of HD 33636, HD 50554, and HD 52265 are extended beyond the PACS PSF size (50% of energy enclosed within radius 4.23"). HD 105211 also has a 24-micron infrared excess that was previously overlooked because of a poorly constrained photospheric model. Archival Spitzer IRS observations indicate that the disks have small grains of minimum radius ~3 microns, though the minimum grain gradius is larger than the radiation pressure blowout size in all systems. If modeled as single-temperature blackbodies, the disk temperatures would all be <60 K. Our radiative transfer models predict actual disk radii approximately twice the radius of model blackbody disks. We find that the Herschel photometry traces dust near the source population of planetesimals. The disk luminosities are in the range 0.00002 <= L/L* <= 0.0002, consistent with collisions in icy planetesimal belts stirred by Pluto-size dwarf planets., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 18 pages, including 10 figures and 3 tables

The gas near the midplanes of planet-forming protostellar disks remains largely unprobed by observations due to the high optical depth of commonly observed molecules such as CO and H$_2$O. However, rotational emission lines from rare molecules may have optical depths near unity in the vertical direction, so that the lines are strong enough to be detected, yet remain transparent enough to trace the disk midplane. Here we present a chemical model of an evolving T-Tauri disk and predict the optical depths of rotational transitions of $^{12}$C$^{16}$O, $^{13}$C$^{16}$O, $^{12}$C$^{17}$O and $^{12}$C$^{18}$O. The MRI-active disk is primarily heated by the central star due to the formation of the dead zone. CO does not freeze out in our modeled region within $70$AU around a sunlike star. However, the abundance of CO decreases because of the formation of complex organic molecules (COM), producing an effect that can be misinterpreted as the "snow line". These results are robust to variations in our assumptions about the evolution of the gas to dust ratio. The optical depths of low-order rotational lines of C$^{17}$O are around unity, making it possible to see into the disk midplane using C$^{17}$O. Combining observations with modeled C$^{17}$O$/$H$_2$ ratios, like those we provide, can yield estimates of protoplanetary disks' gas masses., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Observations of the youngest planets ($\sim$1-10 Myr for a transitional disk) will increase the accuracy of our planet formation models. Unfortunately, observations of such planets are challenging and time-consuming to undertake even in ideal circumstances. Therefore, we propose the determination of a set of markers that can pre-select promising exoplanet-hosting candidate disks. To this end, N-body simulations were conducted to investigate the effect of an embedded Jupiter mass planet on the dynamics of the surrounding planetesimal disk and the resulting creation of second generation collisional dust. We use a new collision model that allows fragmentation and erosion of planetesimals, and dust-sized fragments are simulated in a post process step including non-gravitational forces due to stellar radiation and a gaseous protoplanetary disk. Synthetic images from our numerical simulations show a bright double ring at 850 $\mu$m for a low eccentricity planet, whereas a high eccentricity planet would produce a characteristic inner ring with asymmetries in the disk. In the presence of first generation primordial dust these markers would be difficult to detect far from the orbit of the embedded planet, but would be detectable inside a gap of planetary origin in a transitional disk., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

Voyager 2 observations revealed that the internal luminosity of Neptune is an order of magnitude higher than that of Uranus. If the two planets have similar interior structures and cooling histories, the luminosity of Neptune can only be explained by invoking some energy source beyond gravitational contraction. This paper investigates whether Centaur impacts could provide the energy necessary to produce the luminosity of Neptune. The major findings are (1) that impacts on both Uranus and Neptune are too infrequent to provide luminosities of order the observed value for Neptune, even for optimistic impact-rate estimates, and (2) that Uranus and Neptune rarely have significantly different impact-generated luminosities at any given time. Uranus and Neptune most likely have structural differences that force them to cool and contract at different rates., Comment: 19 pages, including 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Icarus

Transiting planets around rapidly rotating stars are not amenable to precise radial velocity observations, such as are used for planet candidate validation, as they have wide, rotationally broadened stellar lines. Such planets can, however, be observed using Doppler tomography, wherein the stellar absorption line profile distortions during transit are spectroscopically resolved. This allows the validation of transiting planet candidates and the measurement of the stellar spin-planetary orbit (mis)alignment, an important statistical probe of planetary migration processes. We present Doppler tomographic observations which provide a direct confirmation of the hot Jupiter Kepler-13 Ab, and also show that the planet has a prograde, misaligned orbit, with lambda = 58.6 +/- 2.0 degrees. Our measured value of the spin-orbit misalignment is in significant disagreement with the value of lambda = 23 +/- 4 degrees previously measured by Barnes et al. (2011) from the gravity-darkened Kepler lightcurve. We also place an upper limit of 0.75 solar masses (95% confidence) on the mass of Kepler-13 C, the spectroscopic companion to Kepler-13 B, the proper motion companion of the planet host star Kepler-13 A., Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ

Transitional and pre--transitional disks can be explained by a number of mechanisms. This work aims to find a single observationally detectable marker that would imply a planetary origin for the gap and, therefore, indirectly indicate the presence of a young planet. N-body simulations were conducted to investigate the effect of an embedded planet of one Jupiter mass on the production of instantaneous collisional dust derived from a background planetesimal disk. Our new model allows us to predict the dust distribution and resulting observable markers with greater accuracy than previous work. Dynamical influences from a planet on a circular orbit are shown to enhance dust production in the disk interior and exterior to the planet orbit while removing planetesimals from the the orbit itself creating a clearly defined gap. In the case of an eccentric planet the gap opened by the planet is not as clear as the circular case but there is a detectable asymmetry in the dust disk., Comment: Accepted to ApJL 25th September 2013. 4 figures, 1 table

In the core accretion model of giant planet formation, a solid protoplanetary core begins to accrete gas directly from the nebula when its mass reaches about 5 earth masses. The protoplanet has at most a few million years to reach runaway gas accretion, as young stars lose their gas disks after 10 million years at the latest. Yet gas accretion also brings small dust grains entrained in the gas into the planetary atmosphere. Dust accretion creates an optically thick protoplanetary atmosphere that cannot efficiently radiate away the kinetic energy deposited by incoming planetesimals. A dust-rich atmosphere severely slows down atmospheric cooling, contraction, and inflow of new gas, in contradiction to the observed timescales of planet formation. Here we show that photophoresis is a strong mechanism for pushing dust out of the planetary atmosphere due to the momentum exchange between gas and dust grains. The thermal radiation from the heated inner atmosphere and core is sufficient to levitate dust grains and to push them outward. Photophoresis can significantly accelerate the formation of giant planets., Comment: accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2013

Magnetorotational instability (MRI) is the most promising mechanism behind accretion in low-mass protostellar disks. Here we present the first analysis of the global structure and evolution of non-ideal MRI-driven T-Tauri disks on million-year timescales. We accomplish this in a 1+1D simulation by calculating magnetic diffusivities and utilizing turbulence activity criteria to determine thermal structure and accretion rate without resorting to a 3-D magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulation. Our major findings are as follows. First, even for modest surface densities of just a few times the minimum-mass solar nebula, the dead zone encompasses the giant planet-forming region, preserving any compositional gradients. Second, the surface density of the active layer is nearly constant in time at roughly 10 g/cm2, which we use to derive a simple prescription for viscous heating in MRI-active disks for those who wish to avoid detailed MHD computations. Furthermore, unlike a standard disk with constant-alpha viscosity, the disk midplane does not cool off over time, though the surface cools as the star evolves along the Hayashi track. The ice line is firmly in the terrestrial planet-forming region throughout disk evolution and can move either inward or outward with time, depending on whether pileups form near the star. Finally, steady-state mass transport is a poor description of flow through an MRI-active disk. We caution that MRI activity is sensitive to many parameters, including stellar X-ray flux, grain size, gas/small grain mass ratio and magnetic field strength, and we have not performed an exhaustive parameter study here., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal. 19 pages, including 8 figures

Through the McDonald Observatory M Dwarf Planet Search, we have acquired nearly 3,000 high-resolution spectra of 93 late-type (K5-M5) stars over more than a decade using HET/HRS. This sample provides a unique opportunity to investigate the occurrence of long-term stellar activity cycles for low-mass stars. In this paper, we examine the stellar activity of our targets as reflected in the H-alpha feature. We have identified periodic signals for 6 stars, with periods ranging from days to more than 10 years, and find long-term trends for 7 others. Stellar cycles with P > 1 year are present for at least 5% of our targets. Additionally, we present an analysis of the time-averaged activity levels of our sample, and search for correlations with other stellar properties. In particular, we find that more massive, earlier type (M0-M2) stars tend to be more active than later type dwarfs. Furthermore, high-metallicity stars tend to be more active at a given stellar mass. We also evaluate H-alpha variability as a tracer of activity-induced radial velocity (RV) variation. For the M dwarf GJ 1170, H-alpha variation reveals stellar activity patterns matching those seen in the RVs, mimicking the signal of a giant planet, and we find evidence that the previously identified stellar activity cycle of GJ 581 may be responsible for the recently retracted planet f (Vogt et al. 2012) in that system. In general, though, we find that H-alpha is not frequently correlated with RV at the precision (typically 6-7 m/s) of our measurements., Comment: Submitted to ApJ. Reflects comments from a positive referee

The positive correlation between planet detection rate and host star iron abundance lends strong support to the core accretion theory of planet formation. However, iron is not the most significant mass contributor to the cores of giant planets. Since giant planet cores are thought to grow from silicate grains with icy mantles, the likelihood of gas giant formation should depend heavily on the oxygen and silicon abundance of the planet formation environment. Here we compare the silicon and oxygen abundances of a set of 76 planet hosts and a control sample of 80 metal-rich stars without any known giant planets. Our new, independent analysis was conducted using high resolution, high signal-to-noise data obtained at McDonald Observatory. Because we do not wish to simply reproduce the known planet-metallicity correlation, we have devised a statistical method for matching the underlying [Fe/H] distributions of our two sets of stars. We find a 99% probability that planet detection rate depends on the silicon abundance of the host star, over and above the observed planet-metallicity correlation. We do not detect any such correlation for oxygen. Our results would thus seem to suggest that grain nucleation, rather than subsequent icy mantle growth, is the important limiting factor in forming giant planets via core accretion. Based on our results and interpretation, we predict that planet detection should correlate with host star abundance for refractory elements responsible for grain nucleation and that no such trends should exist for the most abundant volatile elements responsible for icy mantle growth., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Although there has yet been no undisputed discovery of a still-forming planet embedded in a gaseous protoplanetary disk, the cleared inner holes of transitional disks may be signposts of young planets. Here we show that the subset of accreting transitional disks with wide, optically thin inner holes of 15 AU or more can only be sculpted by multiple planets orbiting inside each hole. Multiplanet systems provide two key ingredients for explaining the origins of transitional disks. First, multiple planets can clear wide inner holes where single planets open only narrow gaps. Second, the confined, non-axisymmetric accretion flows produced by multiple planets provide a way for an arbitrary amount of mass transfer to occur through an apparently optically thin hole without over-producing infrared excess flux. Rather than assuming the gas and dust in the hole are evenly and axisymmetrically distributed, one can construct an inner hole with apparently optically thin infrared fluxes by covering a macroscopic fraction of the hole's surface area with locally optically thick tidal tails. We also establish that other clearing mechanisms, such as photoevaporation, cannot explain our subset of accreting transitional disks with wide holes. Transitional disks are therefore high-value targets for observational searches for young planetary systems., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. 22 pages, including appendix material, 5 figures and 2 tables

Since giant planets scatter planetesimals within a few tidal radii of their orbits, the locations of existing planetesimal belts indicate regions where giant planet formation failed in bygone protostellar disks. Infrared observations of circumstellar dust produced by colliding planetesimals are therefore powerful probes of the formation histories of known planets. Here we present new Spitzer IRS spectrophotometry of 111 Solar-type stars, including 105 planet hosts. Our observations reveal 11 debris disks, including two previously undetected debris disks orbiting HD 108874 and HD 130322. Combining our 32 micron spectrophotometry with previously published MIPS photometry, we find that the majority of debris disks around planet hosts have temperatures in the range 60 < T < 100 K. Assuming a dust temperature T = 70 K, which is representative of the nine debris disks detected by both IRS and MIPS, we find that debris rings surrounding Sunlike stars orbit between 15 and 240 AU, depending on the mean particle size. Our observations imply that the planets detected by radial-velocity searches formed within 240 AU of their parent stars. If any of the debris disks studied here have mostly large, blackbody emitting grains, their companion giant planets must have formed in a narrow region between the ice line and 15 AU., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal. 14 pages, including five figures and two tables

The core accretion theory of planet formation has at least two fundamental problems explaining the origins of Uranus and Neptune: (1) dynamical times in the trans-Saturnian solar nebula are so long that core growth can take > 15 Myr, and (2) the onset of runaway gas accretion that begins when cores reach 10 Earth masses necessitates a sudden gas accretion cutoff just as the ice giant cores reach critical mass. Both problems may be resolved by allowing the ice giants to migrate outward after their formation in solid-rich feeding zones with planetesimal surface densities well above the minimum-mass solar nebula. We present new simulations of the formation of Uranus and Neptune in the solid-rich disk of Dodson-Robinson et al. (2009) using the initial semimajor axis distribution of the Nice model (Gomes et al. 2005; Morbidelli et al. 2005; Tsiganis et al. 2005), with one ice giant forming at 12 AU and the other at 15 AU. The innermost ice giant reaches its present mass after 3.8-4.0 Myr and the outermost after 5.3-6 Myr, a considerable time decrease from previous one-dimensional simulations (e.g. Pollack et al. 1996). The core masses stay subcritical, eliminating the need for a sudden gas accretion cutoff. Our calculated carbon mass fractions of 22% are in excellent agreement with the ice giant interior models of Podolak et al. (1995) and Marley et al. (1995). Based on the requirement that the ice giant-forming planetesimals contain >10% mass fractions of methane ice, we can reject any solar system formation model that initially places Uranus and Neptune inside the orbit of Saturn. We also demonstrate that a large population of planetesimals must be present in both ice giant feeding zones throughout the lifetime of the gaseous nebula., Comment: Accepted for publication in Icarus. 9 pages, including 3 figures

The determination of Saturn's atmospheric noble gas abundances are critical to understanding the formation and evolution of Saturn, and giant planets in general. These measurements can only be performed with an entry probe. A Saturn probe will address whether enhancement in heavy noble gases, as was found in Jupiter, are a general feature of giant planets, and their ratios will be a powerful constraint on how they form. The helium abundance will show the extent to which helium has phase separated from hydrogen in the planet's deep interior. Jupiter's striking neon depletion may also be tied to its helium depletion, and must be confirmed or refuted in Saturn. Together with Jupiter's measured atmospheric helium abundance, a consistent evolutionary theory for both planets, including "helium rain" will be possible. We will then be able to calibrate the theory of the evolution of all giant planets, including exoplanets. In addition, high pressure H/He mixtures under giant planet conditions are an important area of condensed matter physics that are beyond the realm of experiment., Comment: 7 pages. Submitted to the Giant Planets panel of the 2013-2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey

The recent discoveries of massive planets on ultra-wide orbits of HR 8799 (Marois et al. 2008) and Fomalhaut (Kalas et al. 2008) present a new challenge for planet formation theorists. Our goal is to figure out which of three giant planet formation mechanisms--core accretion (with or without migration), scattering from the inner disk, or gravitational instability--could be responsible for Fomalhaut b, HR 8799 b, c and d, and similar planets discovered in the future. This paper presents the results of numerical experiments comparing the long-period planet formation efficiency of each possible mechanism in model A star, G star and M star disks. First, a simple core accretion simulation shows that planet cores forming beyond 35 AU cannot reach critical mass, even under the most favorable conditions one can construct. Second, a set of N-body simulations demonstrates that planet-planet scattering does not create stable, wide-orbit systems such as HR 8799. Finally, a linear stability analysis verifies previous work showing that global spiral instabilities naturally arise in high-mass disks. We conclude that massive gas giants on stable orbits with semimajor axes greater than 35 AU form by gravitational instability in the disk. We recommend that observers examine the planet detection rate as a function of stellar age, controlling for planet dimming with time. If planet detection rate is found to be independent of stellar age, it would confirm our prediction that gravitational instability is the dominant mode of producing detectable planets on wide orbits. We also predict that the occurrence ratio of long-period to short-period gas giants should be highest for M dwarfs due to the inefficiency of core accretion and the expected small fragment mass in their disks., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. 14 pages, including 3 figures and 1 table

The transiting "hot Saturn" HD 149026b, which has the highest mean density of any confirmed planet in the Neptune-Jupiter mass range, has challenged theories of planet formation since its discovery in 2005. Previous investigations could not explain the origin of the planet's 45-110 Earth-mass solid core without invoking catastrophes such as gas giant collisions or heavy planetesimal bombardment launched by neighboring planets. Here we show that HD 149026b's large core can be successfully explained by the standard core accretion theory of planet formation. The keys to our reconstruction of HD 149026b are (1) applying a model of the solar nebula to describe the protoplanet nursery; (2) placing the planet initially on a long-period orbit at Saturn's heliocentric distance of 9.5 AU; and (3) adjusting the solid mass in the HD 149026 disk to twice that of the solar nebula in accordance with the star's heavy element enrichment. We show that the planet's migration into its current orbit at 0.042 AU is consistent with our formation model. Our study of HD 149026b demonstrates that it is possible to discover the growth history of any planet with a well-defined core mass that orbits a solar-type star., Comment: 20 pages, including 3 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ letters. Discussion updated to include new NICMOS transit photometry (Carter et al. 2009)

We present two new in situ core accretion simulations of Saturn with planet formation timescales of 3.37 Myr (model S0) and 3.48 Myr (model S1), consistent with observed protostellar disk lifetimes. In model S0, we assume rapid grain settling reduces opacity due to grains from full interstellar values (Podolak 2003). In model S1, we do not invoke grain settling, instead assigning full interstellar opacities to grains in the envelope. Surprisingly, the two models produce nearly identical formation timescales and core/atmosphere mass ratios. We therefore observe a new manifestation of core accretion theory: at large heliocentric distances, the solid core growth rate (limited by Keplerian orbital velocity) controls the planet formation timescale. We argue that this paradigm should apply to Uranus and Neptune as well., Comment: 4 pages, including 1 figure, submitted to ApJ Letters

To date, there is no core accretion simulation that can successfully account for the formation of Uranus or Neptune within the observed 2-3 Myr lifetimes of protoplanetary disks. Since solid accretion rate is directly proportional to the available planetesimal surface density, one way to speed up planet formation is to take a full accounting of all the planetesimal-forming solids present in the solar nebula. By combining a viscously evolving protostellar disk with a kinetic model of ice formation, we calculate the solid surface density in the solar nebula as a function of heliocentric distance and time. We find three effects that strongly favor giant planet formation: (1) a decretion flow that brings mass from the inner solar nebula to the giant planet-forming region, (2) recent lab results (Collings et al. 2004) showing that the ammonia and water ice lines should coincide, and (3) the presence of a substantial amount of methane ice in the trans-Saturnian region. Our results show higher solid surface densities than assumed in the core accretion models of Pollack et al. (1996) by a factor of 3 to 4 throughout the trans-Saturnian region. We also discuss the location of ice lines and their movement through the solar nebula, and provide new constraints on the possible initial disk configurations from gravitational stability arguments., Comment: Version 2: reflects lead author's name and affiliation change, contains minor changes to text from version 1. 12 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in Icarus