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Objectives: Despite the development of efficacious wellness interventions, sustainable wellness behavior change remains challenging. To optimize engagement, initiating small behaviors that build upon existing practices congruent with individuals' lifestyles may promote sustainable wellness behavior change. In this study, we crowd-sourced helpful, flexible, and engaging wellness practices to identify a list of those commonly used for improving sleep, productivity, and physical, emotional, and social wellness from participants who felt they had been successful in these dimensions., Method: We recruited a representative sample of 992 U.S. residents to survey the wellness dimensions in which they had achieved success and their specific wellness practices., Results: Responses were aggregated across demographic, health, lifestyle factors, and wellness dimension. Exploration of these data revealed that there was little overlap in preferred practices across wellness dimensions. Within wellness dimensions, preferred practices were similar across demographic factors, especially within the top 3-4 most selected practices. Interestingly, daily wellness practices differ from those typically recommended as efficacious by research studies and seem to be impacted by health status (e.g., depression, cardiovascular disease). Additionally, we developed and provide for public use a web dashboard that visualizes and enables exploration of the study results., Conclusions: Findings identify personalized, sustainable wellness practices targeted at specific wellness dimensions. Future studies could leverage tailored practices as recommendations for optimizing the development of healthier behaviors., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Hidalgo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Introduction: Wearable devices are rapidly improving our ability to observe health-related processes for extended durations in an unintrusive manner. In this study, we use wearable devices to understand how the shape of the heart rate curve during sleep relates to mental health., Methods: As part of the Lived Experiences Measured Using Rings Study (LEMURS), we collected heart rate measurements using the Oura ring (Gen3) for over 25,000 sleep periods and self-reported mental health indicators from roughly 600 first-year university students in the USA during the fall semester of 2022. Using clustering techniques, we find that the sleeping heart rate curves can be broadly separated into two categories that are mainly differentiated by how far along the sleep period the lowest heart rate is reached., Results: Sleep periods characterized by reaching the lowest heart rate later during sleep are also associated with shorter deep and REM sleep and longer light sleep, but not a difference in total sleep duration. Aggregating sleep periods at the individual level, we find that consistently reaching the lowest heart rate later during sleep is a significant predictor of (1) self-reported impairment due to anxiety or depression, (2) a prior mental health diagnosis, and (3) firsthand experience in traumatic events. This association is more pronounced among females., Conclusion: Our results show that the shape of the sleeping heart rate curve, which is only weakly correlated with descriptive statistics such as the average or the minimum heart rate, is a viable but mostly overlooked metric that can help quantify the relationship between sleep and mental health., Competing Interests: All authors declare no financial or nonfinancial competing interests., (© 2024 The Author(s). Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Consumer wearables have been successful at measuring sleep and may be useful in predicting changes in mental health measures such as stress. A key challenge remains in quantifying the relationship between sleep measures associated with physiologic stress and a user's experience of stress. Students from a public university enrolled in the Lived Experiences Measured Using Rings Study (LEMURS) provided continuous biometric data and answered weekly surveys during their first semester of college between October-December 2022. We analyzed weekly associations between estimated sleep measures and perceived stress for participants (N = 525). Through mixed-effects regression models, we identified consistent associations between perceived stress scores and average nightly total sleep time (TST), resting heart rate (RHR), heart rate variability (HRV), and respiratory rate (ARR). These effects persisted after controlling for gender and week of the semester. Specifically, for every additional hour of TST, the odds of experiencing moderate-to-high stress decreased by 0.617 or by 38.3% (p<0.01). For each 1 beat per minute increase in RHR, the odds of experiencing moderate-to-high stress increased by 1.036 or by 3.6% (p<0.01). For each 1 millisecond increase in HRV, the odds of experiencing moderate-to-high stress decreased by 0.988 or by 1.2% (p<0.05). For each additional breath per minute increase in ARR, the odds of experiencing moderate-to-high stress increased by 1.230 or by 23.0% (p<0.01). Consistent with previous research, participants who did not identify as male (i.e., female, nonbinary, and transgender participants) had significantly higher self-reported stress throughout the study. The week of the semester was also a significant predictor of stress. Sleep data from wearable devices may help us understand and to better predict stress, a strong signal of the ongoing mental health epidemic among college students., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Bloomfield et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Objective: Panic attacks are an impairing mental health problem that affects 11% of adults every year. Current criteria describe them as occurring without warning, despite evidence suggesting individuals can often identify attack triggers. We aimed to prospectively explore qualitative and quantitative factors associated with the onset of panic attacks., Results: Of 87 participants, 95% retrospectively identified a trigger for their panic attacks. Worse individually reported mood and state-level mood, as indicated by Twitter ratings, were related to greater likelihood of next-day panic attack. In a subsample of participants who uploaded their wearable sensor data (n = 32), louder ambient noise and higher resting heart rate were related to greater likelihood of next-day panic attack., Conclusions: These promising results suggest that individuals who experience panic attacks may be able to anticipate their next attack which could be used to inform future prevention and intervention efforts., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Introduction: The transition to college is a period of elevated risk for a range of mental health conditions. Although colleges and universities strive to provide mental health support to their students, the high demand for these services makes it difficult to provide scalable, cost-effective solutions., Objective: To address these issues, the present study aims to compare the efficacy of three different treatments using a large cohort of 600 students transitioning to college. Interventions were selected based on their potential for generalizability and cost-effectiveness on college campuses., Methods: The study is a Phase II parallel-group, four-arm, randomized controlled trial with 1:1 allocation that will assign 600 participants to one (n = 150 per condition) of four arms: 1) group-based therapy, 2) physical activity program, 3) nature experiences, or 4) weekly assessment condition as a control group. Physiological data will be collected from all participants using a wearable device to develop algorithmic mental and physical health functioning predictions. Once recruitment is complete, modeling strategies will be used to evaluate the outcomes and effectiveness of each intervention., Discussion: The findings of this study will provide evidence as to the benefits of implementing scalable and proactive interventions using technology with the goal of improving the well-being and success of new college students., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Online misogyny has become a fixture in female politicians' lives. Backlash theory suggests that it may represent a threat response prompted by female politicians' counterstereotypical, power-seeking behaviors. We investigated this hypothesis by analyzing Twitter references to Hillary Clinton before, during, and after her presidential campaign. We collected a corpus of over 9 million tweets from 2014 to 2018 that referred to Hillary Clinton, and employed an interrupted time series analysis on the relative frequency of misogynistic language within the corpus. Prior to 2015, the level of misogyny associated with Clinton decreased over time, but this trend reversed when she announced her presidential campaign. During the campaign, misogyny steadily increased and only plateaued after the election, when the threat of her electoral success had subsided. These findings are consistent with the notion that online misogyny towards female political nominees is a form of backlash prompted by their ambition for power in the political arena., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Natural language processing of medical records offers tremendous potential to improve the patient experience. Sentiment analysis of clinical notes has been performed with mixed results, often highlighting the issue that dictionary ratings are not domain specific. Here, for the first time, we re-calibrate the labMT sentiment dictionary on 3.5M clinical notes describing 10,000 patients diagnosed with lung cancer at the Department of Veterans Affairs. The sentiment score of notes was calculated for two years after date of diagnosis and evaluated against a lab test (platelet count) and a combination of data points (treatments). We found that the oncology specific labMT dictionary, after re-calibration for the clinical oncology domain, produces a promising signal in notes that can be detected based on a comparative analysis to the aforementioned parameters., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)

The murder of George Floyd by police in May 2020 sparked international protests and brought unparalleled levels of attention to the Black Lives Matter movement. As we show, his death set record levels of activity and amplification on Twitter, prompted the saddest day in the platform's history, and caused his name to appear among the ten most frequently used phrases in a day, where he is the only individual to have ever received that level of attention who was not known to the public earlier that same week. Importantly, we find that the Black Lives Matter movement's rhetorical strategy to connect and repeat the names of past Black victims of police violence-foregrounding racial injustice as an ongoing pattern rather than a singular event-was exceptionally effective following George Floyd's death: attention given to him extended to over 185 prior Black victims, more than other past moments in the movement's history. We contextualize this rising tide of attention among 12 years of racial justice activism on Twitter, demonstrating how activists and allies have used attention and amplification as a recurring tactic to lift and memorialize the names of Black victims of police violence. Our results show how the Black Lives Matter movement uses social media to center past instances of police violence at an unprecedented scale and speed, while still advancing the racial justice movement's longstanding goal to "say their names.", Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Wu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Objective: Consumption of traditional and social media markedly increased at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as new information about the virus and safety guidelines evolved. Much of the information concerned restrictions on daily living activities and the risk posed by the virus. The term doomscrolling is used to describe the phenomenon of elevated negative affect after viewing pandemic-related media. The magnitude and duration of this effect, however, is unclear. Furthermore, the effect of doomscrolling likely varies based on prior vulnerabilities for psychopathology, such as a history of childhood maltreatment. It was hypothesized that social and traditional media exposure were related to an increase in depression and PTSD and that this increase was moderated by childhood maltreatment severity., Method: Participants completed a baseline assessment for psychopathology and 30 days of daily assessments of depression, PTSD, and pandemic-related media use., Results: Using multilevel modeling, social media exposure was associated with increased depression and PTSD. This association was stronger for those with more severe maltreatment histories. Furthermore, those with more severe baseline psychopathology used more social media during this period. These relations were not observed for traditional media sources., Conclusions: These results suggest that regular viewing of pandemic-related social media is associated with increases in psychopathology for those with existing vulnerabilities. Those with such vulnerabilities should adopt strategies to limit social media consumption. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the mobility patterns of a majority of Americans beginning in March 2020. Despite the beneficial, socially distanced activity offered by outdoor recreation, confusing and contradictory public health messaging complicated access to natural spaces. Working with a dataset comprising the locations of roughly 50 million distinct mobile devices in 2019 and 2020, we analyze weekly visitation patterns for 8,135 parks across the United States. Using Bayesian inference, we identify regions that experienced a substantial change in visitation in the first few weeks of the pandemic. We find that regions that did not exhibit a change were likely to have smaller populations, and to have voted more republican than democrat in the 2020 elections. Our study contributes to a growing body of literature using passive observations to explore who benefits from access to nature., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Linnell et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Objective: Determine serum lipid and general health/fitness alterations following a 5-month wildfire suppression season., Methods: We recruited 100 wildland firefighters (WLFFs) to a 5-month pre- to post-season observational study. Nude body mass, blood pressure (BP), grip strength, and steptest heart rate (HR) were recorded. Blood samples were collected for lipid panel analysis (total cholesterol, high density lipoproteins (HDL)-cholesterol, low density lipoproteins-cholesterol, very low density lipoproteinscholesterol, triglycerides, triglyceride:HDL-cholesterol ratio). Two-tailed dependent t tests determined statistical significance (P < 0.05)., Results: There were pre- to post-season changes in nude body mass (+2 ± 4%, P  = 0.001), systolic BP (-2 ± 10%, P  = 0.01), step-test HR (-5 ± 10%, P  < 0.001), and all serum lipids (total cholesterol: +5 ± 14%, P  = 0.02, HDL-cholesterol: = 1 ± 17%, P  = 0.04, low density lipoproteins-cholesterol: +8 ± 22%, P  = 0.02, very low density lipoproteins-cholesterol: +31 ± 49%, P  < 0.001, triglycerides: +30 ± 49%, P  < 0.001, triglyceride:HDL-cholesterol ratio: +37 ± 58%, P  < 0.001). Pre- to post-season diastolic BP (P = 0.12) and grip strength (P = 0.60) remained stable., Conclusions: WLFFs demonstrate maladaptive serum lipids and body mass alterations despite subtle aerobic fitness improvements., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: None declared., (Copyright © 2022 American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.)

The relationship between nature contact and mental well-being has received increasing attention in recent years. While a body of evidence has accumulated demonstrating a positive relationship between time in nature and mental well-being, there have been few studies comparing this relationship in different locations over long periods of time. In this study, we analyze over 1.5 million tweets to estimate a happiness benefit, the difference in expressed happiness between in- and out-of-park tweets, for the 25 largest cities in the US by population. People write happier words during park visits when compared with non-park user tweets collected around the same time. While the words people write are happier in parks on average and in most cities, we find considerable variation across cities. Tweets are happier in parks at all times of the day, week, and year, not just during the weekend or summer vacation. Across all cities, we find that the happiness benefit is highest in parks larger than 100 acres. Overall, our study suggests the happiness benefit associated with park visitation is on par with US holidays such as Thanksgiving and New Year's Day., Competing Interests: Authors associated with the MassMutual Center for Excellence for Complex Systems and Data Science are supported in part by a gift from MassMutual Life Insurance Company. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Background: Mental health challenges are thought to affect approximately 10% of the global population each year, with many of those affected going untreated because of the stigma and limited access to services. As social media lowers the barrier for joining difficult conversations and finding supportive groups, Twitter is an open source of language data describing the changing experience of a stigmatized group., Objective: By measuring changes in the conversation around mental health on Twitter, we aim to quantify the hypothesized increase in discussions and awareness of the topic as well as the corresponding reduction in stigma around mental health., Methods: We explored trends in words and phrases related to mental health through a collection of 1-, 2-, and 3-grams parsed from a data stream of approximately 10% of all English tweets from 2010 to 2021. We examined temporal dynamics of mental health language and measured levels of positivity of the messages. Finally, we used the ratio of original tweets to retweets to quantify the fraction of appearances of mental health language that was due to social amplification., Results: We found that the popularity of the phrase mental health increased by nearly two orders of magnitude between 2012 and 2018. We observed that mentions of mental health spiked annually and reliably because of mental health awareness campaigns as well as unpredictably in response to mass shootings, celebrities dying by suicide, and popular fictional television stories portraying suicide. We found that the level of positivity of messages containing mental health, while stable through the growth period, has declined recently. Finally, we observed that since 2015, mentions of mental health have become increasingly due to retweets, suggesting that the stigma associated with the discussion of mental health on Twitter has diminished with time., Conclusions: These results provide useful texture regarding the growing conversation around mental health on Twitter and suggest that more awareness and acceptance has been brought to the topic compared with past years., (©Anne Marie Stupinski, Thayer Alshaabi, Michael V Arnold, Jane Lydia Adams, Joshua R Minot, Matthew Price, Peter Sheridan Dodds, Christopher M Danforth. Originally published in JMIR Mental Health (https://mental.jmir.org), 30.03.2022.)

Sentiment-aware intelligent systems are essential to a wide array of applications. These systems are driven by language models which broadly fall into two paradigms: Lexicon-based and contextual. Although recent contextual models are increasingly dominant, we still see demand for lexicon-based models because of their interpretability and ease of use. For example, lexicon-based models allow researchers to readily determine which words and phrases contribute most to a change in measured sentiment. A challenge for any lexicon-based approach is that the lexicon needs to be routinely expanded with new words and expressions. Here, we propose two models for automatic lexicon expansion. Our first model establishes a baseline employing a simple and shallow neural network initialized with pre-trained word embeddings using a non-contextual approach. Our second model improves upon our baseline, featuring a deep Transformer-based network that brings to bear word definitions to estimate their lexical polarity. Our evaluation shows that both models are able to score new words with a similar accuracy to reviewers from Amazon Mechanical Turk, but at a fraction of the cost., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Alshaabi, Van Oort, Fudolig, Arnold, Danforth and Dodds.)

Measuring the specific kind, temporal ordering, diversity, and turnover rate of stories surrounding any given subject is essential to developing a complete reckoning of that subject's historical impact. Here, we use Twitter as a distributed news and opinion aggregation source to identify and track the dynamics of the dominant day-scale stories around Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States. Working with a data set comprising around 20 billion 1-grams, we first compare each day's 1-gram and 2-gram usage frequencies to those of a year before, to create day- and week-scale timelines for Trump stories for 2016-2021. We measure Trump's narrative control, the extent to which stories have been about Trump or put forward by Trump. We then quantify story turbulence and collective chronopathy-the rate at which a population's stories for a subject seem to change over time. We show that 2017 was the most turbulent overall year for Trump. In 2020, story generation slowed dramatically during the first two major waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, with rapid turnover returning first with the Black Lives Matter protests following George Floyd's murder and then later by events leading up to and following the 2020 US presidential election, including the storming of the US Capitol six days into 2021. Trump story turnover for 2 months during the COVID-19 pandemic was on par with that of 3 days in September 2017. Our methods may be applied to any well-discussed phenomenon, and have potential to enable the computational aspects of journalism, history, and biography., Competing Interests: The authors are grateful for the computing resources provided by the Vermont Advanced Computing Core which was supported in part by NSF award No. OAC-1827314, financial support from the Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company and Google Open Source under the Open-Source Complex Ecosystems And Networks (OCEAN) project. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Objective: Document wildland firefighters (WLFFs) hydration status during a singular workshift (13.7 ± 1.4 hours)., Methods: WLFF researchers documented real-time WLFF (n = 71) urine metrics and fluid consumption. Body weight and blood samples (n = 25) were also collected. Two-tailed dependent t tests determined statistical significance (P < 0.05)., Results: Body weight significantly decreased (-0.3 ± 1.1%, P > 0.05). Fluid consumption totaled 6.2 ± 2.3 L including food and 5.0 ± 2.1 L without food. Morning versus afternoon urine frequency (2.6 ± 1.3, 3.1 ± 1.9 voids), urine volume (1.2 ± 0.7, 1.3 ± 0.8 L), urine volume per void (440 ± 157, 397 ± 142 mL), and urine specific gravity (1.010 ± 0.007, 1.010 ± 0.007) were not significantly different (P > 0.05). Pre- to post-workshift serum chloride (103.2 ± 1.9, 101.4 ± 1.7 mM) and blood glucose (5.2 ± 0.4, 4.5 ± 0.7 mM) significantly decreased (P < 0.05), while serum sodium (141.5 ± 2.4, 140.8 ± 2.0 mM) and serum potassium (4.3 ± 0.3, 4.2 ± 0.3 mM) remained stable (P > 0.05)., Conclusions: WLFFs can ingest fluid and food amounts that maintain workshift euhydration and electrolyte status., Competing Interests: The authors report no conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.)

In real time, Twitter strongly imprints world events, popular culture, and the day-to-day, recording an ever-growing compendium of language change. Vitally, and absent from many standard corpora such as books and news archives, Twitter also encodes popularity and spreading through retweets. Here, we describe Storywrangler, an ongoing curation of over 100 billion tweets containing 1 trillion 1-grams from 2008 to 2021. For each day, we break tweets into 1-, 2-, and 3-grams across 100+ languages, generating frequencies for words, hashtags, handles, numerals, symbols, and emojis. We make the dataset available through an interactive time series viewer and as downloadable time series and daily distributions. Although Storywrangler leverages Twitter data, our method of tracking dynamic changes in n -grams can be extended to any temporally evolving corpus. Illustrating the instrument's potential, we present example use cases including social amplification, the sociotechnical dynamics of famous individuals, box office success, and social unrest., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).)

In September 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall across the Caribbean region as a category 4 storm. In the aftermath, many residents of Puerto Rico were without power or clean running water for nearly a year. Using both English and Spanish tweets from September 16 to October 15 2017, we investigate discussion of Maria both on and off the island, constructing a proxy for the temporal network of communication between victims of the hurricane and others. We use information theoretic tools to compare the lexical divergence of different subgroups within the network. Lastly, we quantify temporal changes in user prominence throughout the event. We find at the global level that Spanish tweets more often contained messages of hope and a focus on those helping. At the local level, we find that information propagating among Puerto Ricans most often originated from sources local to the island, such as journalists and politicians. Critically, content from these accounts overshadows content from celebrities, global news networks, and the like for the large majority of the time period studied. Our findings reveal insight into ways social media campaigns could be deployed to disseminate relief information during similar events in the future., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

We study collective attention paid towards hurricanes through the lens of n-grams on Twitter, a social media platform with global reach. Using hurricane name mentions as a proxy for awareness, we find that the exogenous temporal dynamics are remarkably similar across storms, but that overall collective attention varies widely even among storms causing comparable deaths and damage. We construct 'hurricane attention maps' and observe that hurricanes causing deaths on (or economic damage to) the continental United States generate substantially more attention in English language tweets than those that do not. We find that a hurricane's Saffir-Simpson wind scale category assignment is strongly associated with the amount of attention it receives. Higher category storms receive higher proportional increases of attention per proportional increases in number of deaths or dollars of damage, than lower category storms. The most damaging and deadly storms of the 2010s, Hurricanes Harvey and Maria, generated the most attention and were remembered the longest, respectively. On average, a category 5 storm receives 4.6 times more attention than a category 1 storm causing the same number of deaths and economic damage., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: Author DRD’s commercial affiliation with paid employment. Additionally, we have received funding from a commerical source: Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company and Google. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

The past decade has witnessed a marked increase in the use of social media by politicians, most notably exemplified by the 45th President of the United States (POTUS), Donald Trump. On Twitter, POTUS messages consistently attract high levels of engagement as measured by likes, retweets, and replies. Here, we quantify the balance of these activities, also known as "ratios", and study their dynamics as a proxy for collective political engagement in response to presidential communications. We find that raw activity counts increase during the period leading up to the 2016 election, accompanied by a regime change in the ratio of retweets-to-replies connected to the transition between campaigning and governing. For the Trump account, we find words related to fake news and the Mueller inquiry are more common in tweets with a high number of replies relative to retweets. Finally, we find that Barack Obama consistently received a higher retweet-to-reply ratio than Donald Trump. These results suggest Trump's Twitter posts are more often controversial and subject to enduring engagement as a given news cycle unfolds., Competing Interests: JRM, TA, CMD, and PSD have been supported by a gift from MassMutual. Our program at-large receives support from MassMutual and Google, although neither organization specifically funded this study. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Human mortality is in part a function of multiple socioeconomic factors that differ both spatially and temporally. Adjusting for other covariates, the human lifespan is positively associated with household wealth. However, the extent to which mortality in a geographical region is a function of socioeconomic factors in both that region and its neighbors is unclear. There is also little information on the temporal components of this relationship. Using the districts of Hong Kong over multiple census years as a case study, we demonstrate that there are differences in how wealth indicator variables are associated with longevity in (a) areas that are affluent but neighbored by socially deprived districts versus (b) wealthy areas surrounded by similarly wealthy districts. We also show that the inclusion of spatially-distributed variables reduces uncertainty in mortality rate predictions in each census year when compared with a baseline model. Our results suggest that geographic mortality models should incorporate nonlocal information (e.g., spatial neighbors) to lower the variance of their mortality estimates, and point to a more in-depth analysis of sociospatial spillover effects on mortality rates., Competing Interests: The authors have read the journal’s policy and have the following competing interests: DRD was a paid employee of Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance at the time of the study. DRD is currently affiliated with Charles River Analytics Inc. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products associated with this research to declare. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Introduction: Wildfire suppression is characterized by high total energy expenditure and water turnover rates. Hydration position stands outline hourly fluid intake rates. However, dose interval remains ambiguous. We aimed to determine the effects of microdosing and bolus-dosing water and microdosing and bolus-dosing carbohydrate-electrolyte solutions on fluid balance, heat stress (physiologic strain index [PSI]), and carbohydrate oxidation during extended thermal exercise., Methods: In a repeated-measures cross-over design, subjects completed four 120-min treadmill trials (1.3 m·s -1 , 5% grade, 33°C, 30% relative humidity) wearing a US Forest Service wildland firefighter uniform and a 15-kg pack. Fluid delivery approximated losses calculated from a pre-experiment familiarization trial, providing 22 doses·h -1 or 1 dose·h -1 (46±11, 1005±245 mL·dose -1 ). Body weight (pre- and postexercise) and urine volume (pre-, during, and postexercise) were recorded. Heart rate, rectal temperature, skin temperature, and steady-state expired air samples were recorded throughout exercise. Statistical significance (P<0.05) was determined via repeated-measures analysis of variance., Results: Total body weight loss (n=11, -0.6±0.3 kg, P>0.05) and cumulative urine output (n=11, 677±440 mL, P>0.05) were not different across trials. The micro-dosed carbohydrate-electrolyte trial sweat rate was lower than that of the bolus-dosed carbohydrate-electrolyte, bolus-dosed water, and microdosed water trials (n=11, 0.8±0.2, 0.9±0.2, 0.9±0.2, 0.9±0.2 L·h -1 , respectively; P<0.05). PSI was lower at 60 than 120 min (n=12, 3.6±0.7 and 4.5±0.9, respectively; P<0.05), with no differences across trials. The carbohydrate-electrolyte trial's carbohydrate oxidation was higher than water trial's (n=12, 1.5±0.3 and 0.8±0.2 g·min -1 , respectively; P<0.05), with no dosing style differences., Conclusions: Equal-volume diverse fluid delivery schedules did not affect fluid balance, PSI, or carbohydrate oxidation during extended thermal work., (Copyright © 2020 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

In confronting the global spread of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 pandemic we must have coordinated medical, operational, and political responses. In all efforts, data is crucial. Fundamentally, and in the possible absence of a vaccine for 12 to 18 months, we need universal, well-documented testing for both the presence of the disease as well as confirmed recovery through serological tests for antibodies, and we need to track major socioeconomic indices. But we also need auxiliary data of all kinds, including data related to how populations are talking about the unfolding pandemic through news and stories. To in part help on the social media side, we curate a set of 2000 day-scale time series of 1- and 2-grams across 24 languages on Twitter that are most 'important' for April 2020 with respect to April 2019. We determine importance through our allotaxonometric instrument, rank-turbulence divergence. We make some basic observations about some of the time series, including a comparison to numbers of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 over time. We broadly observe across all languages a peak for the language-specific word for 'virus' in January 2020 followed by a decline through February and then a surge through March and April. The world's collective attention dropped away while the virus spread out from China. We host the time series on Gitlab, updating them on a daily basis while relevant. Our main intent is for other researchers to use these time series to enhance whatever analyses that may be of use during the pandemic as well as for retrospective investigations., Competing Interests: P.S.D. and C.M.D. received funding from the Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company and Google Open Source under the Open-Source Complex Ecosystems And Networks (OCEAN) project. MassMutual provided support in the form of salaries for authors D.R.D. and A.J.R., and Charles River Analytics provided salary for D.R. D. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products associated with this research to declare.

Working from a dataset of 118 billion messages running from the start of 2009 to the end of 2019, we identify and explore the relative daily use of over 150 languages on Twitter. We find that eight languages comprise 80% of all tweets, with English, Japanese, Spanish, Arabic, and Portuguese being the most dominant. To quantify social spreading in each language over time, we compute the 'contagion ratio': The balance of retweets to organic messages. We find that for the most common languages on Twitter there is a growing tendency, though not universal, to retweet rather than share new content. By the end of 2019, the contagion ratios for half of the top 30 languages, including English and Spanish, had reached above 1-the naive contagion threshold. In 2019, the top 5 languages with the highest average daily ratios were, in order, Thai (7.3), Hindi, Tamil, Urdu, and Catalan, while the bottom 5 were Russian, Swedish, Esperanto, Cebuano, and Finnish (0.26). Further, we show that over time, the contagion ratios for most common languages are growing more strongly than those of rare languages., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2021.)

Stretched words like 'heellllp' or 'heyyyyy' are a regular feature of spoken language, often used to emphasize or exaggerate the underlying meaning of the root word. While stretched words are rarely found in formal written language and dictionaries, they are prevalent within social media. In this paper, we examine the frequency distributions of 'stretchable words' found in roughly 100 billion tweets authored over an 8 year period. We introduce two central parameters, 'balance' and 'stretch', that capture their main characteristics, and explore their dynamics by creating visual tools we call 'balance plots' and 'spelling trees'. We discuss how the tools and methods we develop here could be used to study the statistical patterns of mistypings and misspellings and be used as a basis for other linguistic research involving stretchable words, along with the potential applications in augmenting dictionaries, improving language processing, and in any area where sequence construction matters, such as genetics., Competing Interests: We have the following interests: TJG, CMD, and PSD were supported by a gift from MassMutual. There are no patents, products in development, or marketed products to declare. This does not alter our adherence to all of the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Foreign power interference in domestic elections is an existential threat to societies. Manifested through myriad methods from war to words, such interference is a timely example of strategic interaction between economic and political agents. We model this interaction between rational game players as a continuous-time differential game, constructing an analytical model of this competition with a variety of payoff structures. All-or-nothing attitudes by only one player regarding the outcome of the game lead to an arms race in which both countries spend increasing amounts on interference and counterinterference operations. We then confront our model with data pertaining to the Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election contest. We introduce and estimate a Bayesian structural time-series model of election polls and social media posts by Russian Twitter troll accounts. Our analytical model, while purposefully abstract and simple, adequately captures many temporal characteristics of the election and social media activity. We close with a discussion of our model's shortcomings and suggestions for future research.

Natural hazards are becoming increasingly expensive as climate change and development are exposing communities to greater risks. Preparation and recovery are critical for climate change resilience, and social media are being used more and more to communicate before, during, and after disasters. While there is a growing body of research aimed at understanding how people use social media surrounding disaster events, most existing work has focused on a single disaster case study. In the present study, we analyze five of the costliest disasters in the last decade in the United States (Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, two sets of tornado outbreaks, and flooding in Louisiana) through the lens of Twitter. In particular, we explore the frequency of both generic and specific food-security related terms, and quantify the relationship between network size and Twitter activity during disasters. We find differences in tweet volume for keywords depending on disaster type, with people using Twitter more frequently in preparation for Hurricanes, and for real-time or recovery information for tornado and flooding events. Further, we find that people share a host of general disaster and specific preparation and recovery terms during these events. Finally, we find that among all account types, individuals with "average" sized networks are most likely to share information during these disasters, and in most cases, do so more frequently than normal. This suggests that around disasters, an ideal form of social contagion is being engaged in which average people rather than outsized influentials are key to communication. These results provide important context for the type of disaster information and target audiences that may be most useful for disaster communication during varying extreme events., Competing Interests: The authors declare the following interests: MTN is a member of the board of directors of The Public Library of Science (PLOS). This role has in no way influenced the outcome or development of this work or the peer-review process. After the research for this paper was completed, AR became employed by the commercial company, Mass Mutual (https://www.massmutual.com/). This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

The English language has evolved dramatically throughout its lifespan, to the extent that a modern speaker of Old English would be incomprehensible without translation. One concrete indicator of this process is the movement from irregular to regular (-ed) forms for the past tense of verbs. In this study we quantify the extent of verb regularization using two vastly disparate datasets: (1) Six years of published books scanned by Google (2003-2008), and (2) A decade of social media messages posted to Twitter (2008-2017). We find that the extent of verb regularization is greater on Twitter, taken as a whole, than in English Fiction books. Regularization is also greater for tweets geotagged in the United States relative to American English books, but the opposite is true for tweets geotagged in the United Kingdom relative to British English books. We also find interesting regional variations in regularization across counties in the United States. However, once differences in population are accounted for, we do not identify strong correlations with socio-demographic variables such as education or income., Competing Interests: We have the following interests: TJG, PSD, and CMD were supported by a gift from MassMutual. There are no patents, products in development, or marketed products to declare. This does not alter our adherence to all of the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Classical rich-get-richer models have found much success in being able to broadly reproduce the statistics and dynamics of diverse real complex systems. These rich-get-richer models are based on classical urn models and unfold step by step in discrete time. Here, we consider a natural variation acting on a temporal continuum in the form of a partial differential equation (PDE). We first show that the continuum version of Simon's canonical preferential attachment model exhibits an identical size distribution. In relaxing Simon's assumption of a linear growth mechanism, we consider the case of an arbitrary growth kernel and find the general solution to the resultant PDE. We then extend the PDE to multiple spatial dimensions, again determining the general solution. We then relax the zero-diffusion assumption and find an envelope of solutions to the general model in the presence of small fluctuations. Finally, we apply the model to size and wealth distributions of firms. We obtain power-law scaling for both to be concordant with simulations as well as observational data, providing a parsimonious theoretical explanation for these phenomena.

Since the shooting of Black teenager Michael Brown by White police officer Darren Wilson in Ferguson, Missouri, the protest hashtag #BlackLivesMatter has amplified critiques of extrajudicial killings of Black Americans. In response to #BlackLivesMatter, other Twitter users have adopted #AllLivesMatter, a counter-protest hashtag whose content argues that equal attention should be given to all lives regardless of race. Through a multi-level analysis of over 860,000 tweets, we study how these protests and counter-protests diverge by quantifying aspects of their discourse. We find that #AllLivesMatter facilitates opposition between #BlackLivesMatter and hashtags such as #PoliceLivesMatter and #BlueLivesMatter in such a way that historically echoes the tension between Black protesters and law enforcement. In addition, we show that a significant portion of #AllLivesMatter use stems from hijacking by #BlackLivesMatter advocates. Beyond simply injecting #AllLivesMatter with #BlackLivesMatter content, these hijackers use the hashtag to directly confront the counter-protest notion of "All lives matter." Our findings suggest that Black Lives Matter movement was able to grow, exhibit diverse conversations, and avoid derailment on social media by making discussion of counter-protest opinions a central topic of #AllLivesMatter, rather than the movement itself.

We developed computational models to predict the emergence of depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder in Twitter users. Twitter data and details of depression history were collected from 204 individuals (105 depressed, 99 healthy). We extracted predictive features measuring affect, linguistic style, and context from participant tweets (N = 279,951) and built models using these features with supervised learning algorithms. Resulting models successfully discriminated between depressed and healthy content, and compared favorably to general practitioners' average success rates in diagnosing depression, albeit in a separate population. Results held even when the analysis was restricted to content posted before first depression diagnosis. State-space temporal analysis suggests that onset of depression may be detectable from Twitter data several months prior to diagnosis. Predictive results were replicated with a separate sample of individuals diagnosed with PTSD (N users  = 174, N tweets  = 243,775). A state-space time series model revealed indicators of PTSD almost immediately post-trauma, often many months prior to clinical diagnosis. These methods suggest a data-driven, predictive approach for early screening and detection of mental illness.

Herbert Simon's classic rich-get-richer model is one of the simplest empirically supported mechanisms capable of generating heavy-tail size distributions for complex systems. Simon argued analytically that a population of flavored elements growing by either adding a novel element or randomly replicating an existing one would afford a distribution of group sizes with a power-law tail. Here, we show that, in fact, Simon's model does not produce a simple power-law size distribution as the initial element has a dominant first-mover advantage, and will be overrepresented by a factor proportional to the inverse of the innovation probability. The first group's size discrepancy cannot be explained away as a transient of the model, and may therefore be many orders of magnitude greater than expected. We demonstrate how Simon's analysis was correct but incomplete, and expand our alternate analysis to quantify the variability of long term rankings for all groups. We find that the expected time for a first replication is infinite, and show how an incipient group must break the mechanism to improve their odds of success. We present an example of citation counts for a specific field that demonstrates a first-mover advantage consistent with our revised view of the rich-get-richer mechanism. Our findings call for a reexamination of preceding work invoking Simon's model and provide an expanded understanding going forward.

We propose and develop a Lexicocalorimeter: an online, interactive instrument for measuring the "caloric content" of social media and other large-scale texts. We do so by constructing extensive yet improvable tables of food and activity related phrases, and respectively assigning them with sourced estimates of caloric intake and expenditure. We show that for Twitter, our naive measures of "caloric input", "caloric output", and the ratio of these measures are all strong correlates with health and well-being measures for the contiguous United States. Our caloric balance measure in many cases outperforms both its constituent quantities; is tunable to specific health and well-being measures such as diabetes rates; has the capability of providing a real-time signal reflecting a population's health; and has the potential to be used alongside traditional survey data in the development of public policy and collective self-awareness. Because our Lexicocalorimeter is a linear superposition of principled phrase scores, we also show we can move beyond correlations to explore what people talk about in collective detail, and assist in the understanding and explanation of how population-scale conditions vary, a capacity unavailable to black-box type methods., Competing Interests: One of the authors, SCA, was employed by Women, Infants and Children, East Boston. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Background: Twitter has become the "wild-west" of marketing and promotional strategies for advertisement agencies. Electronic cigarettes have been heavily marketed across Twitter feeds, offering discounts, "kid-friendly" flavors, algorithmically generated false testimonials, and free samples., Methods: All electronic cigarette keyword related tweets from a 10% sample of Twitter spanning January 2012 through December 2014 (approximately 850,000 total tweets) were identified and categorized as Automated or Organic by combining a keyword classification and a machine trained Human Detection algorithm. A sentiment analysis using Hedonometrics was performed on Organic tweets to quantify the change in consumer sentiments over time. Commercialized tweets were topically categorized with key phrasal pattern matching., Results: The overwhelming majority (80%) of tweets were classified as automated or promotional in nature. The majority of these tweets were coded as commercialized (83.65% in 2013), up to 33% of which offered discounts or free samples and appeared on over a billion twitter feeds as impressions. The positivity of Organic (human) classified tweets has decreased over time (5.84 in 2013 to 5.77 in 2014) due to a relative increase in the negative words 'ban', 'tobacco', 'doesn't', 'drug', 'against', 'poison', 'tax' and a relative decrease in the positive words like 'haha', 'good', 'cool'. Automated tweets are more positive than organic (6.17 versus 5.84) due to a relative increase in the marketing words like 'best', 'win', 'buy', 'sale', 'health', 'discount' and a relative decrease in negative words like 'bad', 'hate', 'stupid', 'don't'., Conclusions: Due to the youth presence on Twitter and the clinical uncertainty of the long term health complications of electronic cigarette consumption, the protection of public health warrants scrutiny and potential regulation of social media marketing.

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms-the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853-2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.

Sports are spontaneous generators of stories. Through skill and chance, the script of each game is dynamically written in real time by players acting out possible trajectories allowed by a sport's rules. By properly characterizing a given sport's ecology of "game stories," we are able to capture the sport's capacity for unfolding interesting narratives, in part by contrasting them with random walks. Here we explore the game story space afforded by a data set of 1310 Australian Football League (AFL) score lines. We find that AFL games exhibit a continuous spectrum of stories rather than distinct clusters. We show how coarse graining reveals identifiable motifs ranging from last-minute comeback wins to one-sided blowouts. Through an extensive comparison with biased random walks, we show that real AFL games deliver a broader array of motifs than null models, and we provide consequent insights into the narrative appeal of real games.

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics analogous to the Earth's weather. As is the case for state-of-the-art weather models, we only observe the statistics over a small region of state space, making prediction difficult. To overcome this challenge, data assimilation (DA) methods, and specifically ensemble methods, use the computational model itself to estimate the uncertainty of the model to optimally combine these observations into an initial condition for predicting the future state. Here, we build and verify four distinct DA methods, and then, we perform a twin model experiment with the computational fluid dynamics simulation of the loop using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) to assimilate observations and predict flow reversals. We show that using adaptively shaped localized covariance outperforms static localized covariance with the ETKF, and allows for the use of less observations in predicting flow reversals. We also show that a Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of the temperature and velocity fields recovers the low dimensional system underlying reversals, finding specific modes which together are predictive of reversal direction.

It is tempting to treat frequency trends from the Google Books data sets as indicators of the "true" popularity of various words and phrases. Doing so allows us to draw quantitatively strong conclusions about the evolution of cultural perception of a given topic, such as time or gender. However, the Google Books corpus suffers from a number of limitations which make it an obscure mask of cultural popularity. A primary issue is that the corpus is in effect a library, containing one of each book. A single, prolific author is thereby able to noticeably insert new phrases into the Google Books lexicon, whether the author is widely read or not. With this understood, the Google Books corpus remains an important data set to be considered more lexicon-like than text-like. Here, we show that a distinct problematic feature arises from the inclusion of scientific texts, which have become an increasingly substantive portion of the corpus throughout the 1900 s. The result is a surge of phrases typical to academic articles but less common in general, such as references to time in the form of citations. We use information theoretic methods to highlight these dynamics by examining and comparing major contributions via a divergence measure of English data sets between decades in the period 1800-2000. We find that only the English Fiction data set from the second version of the corpus is not heavily affected by professional texts. Overall, our findings call into question the vast majority of existing claims drawn from the Google Books corpus, and point to the need to fully characterize the dynamics of the corpus before using these data sets to draw broad conclusions about cultural and linguistic evolution.

In an effort to better understand meaning from natural language texts, we explore methods aimed at organizing lexical objects into contexts. A number of these methods for organization fall into a family defined by word ordering. Unlike demographic or spatial partitions of data, these collocation models are of special importance for their universal applicability. While we are interested here in text and have framed our treatment appropriately, our work is potentially applicable to other areas of research (e.g., speech, genomics, and mobility patterns) where one has ordered categorical data (e.g., sounds, genes, and locations). Our approach focuses on the phrase (whether word or larger) as the primary meaning-bearing lexical unit and object of study. To do so, we employ our previously developed framework for generating word-conserving phrase-frequency data. Upon training our model with the Wiktionary, an extensive, online, collaborative, and open-source dictionary that contains over 100000 phrasal definitions, we develop highly effective filters for the identification of meaningful, missing phrase entries. With our predictions we then engage the editorial community of the Wiktionary and propose short lists of potential missing entries for definition, developing a breakthrough, lexical extraction technique and expanding our knowledge of the defined English lexicon of phrases.

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

Natural languages are full of rules and exceptions. One of the most famous quantitative rules is Zipf's law, which states that the frequency of occurrence of a word is approximately inversely proportional to its rank. Though this "law" of ranks has been found to hold across disparate texts and forms of data, analyses of increasingly large corpora since the late 1990s have revealed the existence of two scaling regimes. These regimes have thus far been explained by a hypothesis suggesting a separability of languages into core and noncore lexica. Here we present and defend an alternative hypothesis that the two scaling regimes result from the act of aggregating texts. We observe that text mixing leads to an effective decay of word introduction, which we show provides accurate predictions of the location and severity of breaks in scaling. Upon examining large corpora from 10 languages in the Project Gutenberg eBooks collection, we find emphatic empirical support for the universality of our claim.

Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (i) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias, (ii) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation, and (iii) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word use. Alongside these general regularities, we describe interlanguage variations in the emotional spectrum of languages that allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts.

Complex networks underlie an enormous variety of social, biological, physical, and virtual systems. A profound complication for the science of complex networks is that in most cases, observing all nodes and all network interactions is impossible. Previous work addressing the impacts of partial network data is surprisingly limited, focuses primarily on missing nodes, and suggests that network statistics derived from subsampled data are not suitable estimators for the same network statistics describing the overall network topology. We generate scaling methods to predict true network statistics, including the degree distribution, from only partial knowledge of nodes, links, or weights. Our methods are transparent and do not assume a known generating process for the network, thus enabling prediction of network statistics for a wide variety of applications. We validate analytical results on four simulated network classes and empirical data sets of various sizes. We perform subsampling experiments by varying proportions of sampled data and demonstrate that our scaling methods can provide very good estimates of true network statistics while acknowledging limits. Lastly, we apply our techniques to a set of rich and evolving large-scale social networks, Twitter reply networks. Based on 100 million tweets, we use our scaling techniques to propose a statistical characterization of the Twitter Interactome from September 2008 to November 2008. Our treatment allows us to find support for Dunbar's hypothesis in detecting an upper threshold for the number of active social contacts that individuals maintain over the course of one week.

Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicated to education, medicine, art, public support, and religion. We find that the detailed forms of gift-size distributions differ across but are relatively constant within charity categories. We construct a model for how a donor's income affects their giving preferences in different charity categories, offering a mechanistic explanation for variations in institutional gift-size distributions. We discuss how knowledge of gift-sized distributions may be used to assess an institution's gift-giving profile, to help set fundraising goals, and to design an institution-specific giving pyramid.

We study binary state dynamics on a network where each node acts in response to the average state of its neighborhood. By allowing varying amounts of stochasticity in both the network and node responses, we find different outcomes in random and deterministic versions of the model. In the limit of a large, dense network, however, we show that these dynamics coincide. We construct a general mean-field theory for random networks and show this predicts that the dynamics on the network is a smoothed version of the average response function dynamics. Thus, the behavior of the system can range from steady state to chaotic depending on the response functions, network connectivity, and update synchronicity. As a specific example, we model the competing tendencies of imitation and nonconformity by incorporating an off-threshold into standard threshold models of social contagion. In this way, we attempt to capture important aspects of fashions and societal trends. We compare our theory to extensive simulations of this "limited imitation contagion" model on Poisson random graphs, finding agreement between the mean-field theory and stochastic simulations.

We conduct a detailed investigation of correlations between real-time expressions of individuals made across the United States and a wide range of emotional, geographic, demographic, and health characteristics. We do so by combining (1) a massive, geo-tagged data set comprising over 80 million words generated in 2011 on the social network service Twitter and (2) annually-surveyed characteristics of all 50 states and close to 400 urban populations. Among many results, we generate taxonomies of states and cities based on their similarities in word use; estimate the happiness levels of states and cities; correlate highly-resolved demographic characteristics with happiness levels; and connect word choice and message length with urban characteristics such as education levels and obesity rates. Our results show how social media may potentially be used to estimate real-time levels and changes in population-scale measures such as obesity rates.