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This article is devoted to the methodology and analysis of the results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of global climate change in the form of permafrost thawing and degradation for the housing sector in eight regions of the Russian Arctic. Changes in the state of permafrost soils during the implementation of the most negative (scenario RCP 8.5) of the IPCC forecast options as the most appropriate to the conditions of the Russian Arctic were taken as a physio-geographic basis for the assessment. It is shown that, under a conservative scenario of the housing sector development in this macroregion of Russia in 2020–2050, the annual average cost of maintenance and restoration of the lost housing stock will exceed ₽30 bln. With the implementation of the modernization scenario, the cost above will increase to ₽36 bln. The maximum expected loss is predicted in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Krasnoyarsk krai, and the minimum, in the Chukotka and Khanty–Mansi autonomous okrugs.

Three model scenarios of changes in road infrastructure sustainability under permafrost thawing and degradation due to global climate change in nine Russian Arctic regions are considered. Until the current mid-century, economic assessment of the aftermath of climate change in these regions was physicogeographically based on six model climate assessments of cryogenic conditions, reflecting the most negative (scenario RCP8.5) option of the IPCC global climate change forecasts, which best fits the conditions of the Russian Arctic. The data of Russia’s Transport Strategy until 2035, updated by the authors, serve as the basis for predicting road infrastructure development. An inertial (conservative) scenario of road infrastructure development in 2020–2050 shows that capital costs to maintain road infrastructure sustainability and reduce damage risks under permafrost thawing and degradation will average at least ₽14 bln a year and will exceed ₽21 bln and ₽28 bln, respectively, under the moderate and modernization scenarios. The maximum indicators will be relevant for the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Magadan oblast, and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The implementation of the modernization scenario will require revision of the existing standards, technologies, and entire economy of the road infrastructure and capital construction favoring the development of innovative standards and construction technologies, as well as the improvement of the proposed methodology and methods of cost estimation for these purposes.

The Arctic is experiencing pronounced climatic and environmental changes. These changes pose a risk to infrastructure, impacting the accessibility and development of remote locations and ad...

While the world continues to work toward an understanding and projections of climate change impacts, the Arctic increasingly becomes a critical component as a bellwether region. Scientific cooperation is a well-supported narrative and theme in general, but in reality, presents many challenges and counter-productive difficulties. Moreover, data sharing specifically represents one of the more critical cooperation requirements, as part of the “scientific method [which] allows for verification of results and extending research from prior results”. One of the important pieces of the climate change puzzle is permafrost. In general, observational data on permafrost characteristics are limited. Currently, most permafrost data remain fragmented and restricted to national authorities, including scientific institutes. The preponderance of permafrost data is not available openly—important datasets reside in various government or university labs, where they remain largely unknown or where access restrictions prevent effective use. Although highly authoritative, separate data efforts involving creation and management result in a very incomplete picture of the state of permafrost as well as what to possibly anticipate. While nations maintain excellent individual permafrost research programs, a lack of shared research—especially data—significantly reduces effectiveness of understanding permafrost overall. Different nations resource and employ various approaches to studying permafrost, including the growing complexity of scientific modeling. Some are more effective than others and some achieve different purposes than others. Whereas it is not possible for a nation to effectively conduct the variety of modeling and research needed to comprehensively understand impacts to permafrost, a global community can. In some ways, separate scientific communities are not necessarily concerned about sharing data—their work is secured. However, decision and policy makers, especially on the international stage, struggle to understand how best to anticipate and prepare for changes, and thus support for scientific recommendations during policy development. To date, there is a lack of research exploring the need to share circumpolar permafrost data. This article will explore the global data systems on permafrost, which remain sporadic, rarely updated, and with almost nothing about the subsea permafrost publicly available. The authors suggest that the global permafrost monitoring system should be real time (within technical and reasonable possibility), often updated and with open access to the data (general way of representing data required). Additionally, it will require robust co-ordination in terms of accessibility, funding, and protocols to avoid either duplication and/or information sharing. Following a brief background, this article will offer three supporting themes, (1) the current state of permafrost data, (2) rationale and methods to share data, and (3) implications for global and national interests.

Climate change is destabilizing permafrost landscapes, affecting infrastructure, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. The rate of permafrost thaw is controlled by surface and subsurface properties and processes, all of which are potentially linked with each other. However, no standardized protocol exists for measuring permafrost thaw and related processes and properties in a linked manner. The permafrost thaw action group of the Terrestrial Multidisciplinary distributed Observatories for the Study of the Arctic Connections (T-MOSAiC) project has developed a protocol, for use by non-specialist scientists and technicians, citizen scientists, and indigenous groups, to collect standardized metadata and data on permafrost thaw. The protocol introduced here addresses the need to jointly measure permafrost thaw and the associated surface and subsurface environmental conditions. The parameters measured along transects include: snow depth, thaw depth, vegetation height, soil texture, and water level. The metadata collection includes data on timing of data collection, geographical coordinates, land surface characteristics (vegetation, ground surface, water conditions), as well as photographs. Our hope is that this openly available dataset will also be highly valuable for validation and parameterization of numerical and conceptual models, and thus to the broad community represented by the T-MOSAiC project.

Russian Arctic is characterized by developed infrastructure and high percentage of urban population on permafrost. The settlements on permafrost represent hot spots of permafrost transformations as rapidly changing climatic conditions are exacerbated by various types of human activities. To evaluate the exposure and risks of settlements to permafrost related dangerous processes, we selected several criteria, including geographic extent, duration, probability of occurrence, and total risk of damages associated with each permafrost process in 37 settlements located in various parts of the Russian Arctic. The following six types of potentially dangerous permafrost processes were considered: a) thermokarst, b) thermal erosion and thermal abrasion, c) frost heave, d) frost cracking, e) formation of icings, f) human-induced slope processes on permafrost. While risk from particular process was rather location specific, the integral assessment of all selected categories allowed to classify the overall exposure of settlements to permafrost processes. Results show that cities of Anadyr, Nadym and Kharp have rather small risk exposure, while cities of Igarka and Vorkuta have relatively high exposure. Bilibino and Norislk were among the cities having the highest overall exposure and potential risk associated with permafrost related processes considered in this study. The research is supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research project 18-05-600888 “Urban Arctic resilience in the context of climate change and socio-economic transformations”.

Increasing atmospheric temperatures over the last 30 years has prompted land cover change in sensitive Arctic environments and exacerbated change in large urban-industrial centers on permaf...

The city of Norilsk represents an unprecedented case of massive construction in the permafrost regions of the Arctic. Norilsk’s urban expansion can be attributed to the development of engineering practices that maintained the thermal stability of permafrost. However, complex interactions between the urban landscape and permafrost have resulted in permafrost warming and degradation. Negative cryogenic processes started to manifest themselves 10–15 years after the initial development and have intensified with time. Problems were further exacerbated by the poor quality of construction, improper operation of the city infrastructure, socio-economic transitions, and unanticipated climatic changes. The warming and degradation of permafrost have contributed to a widespread deformation of structures in Norilsk. In this paper, we discuss the role of permafrost in the urban development of Norilsk, specific human- and climate-induced geotechnical problems related to permafrost, and innovative economically via...

Ice cellars are a natural form of refrigeration constructed within permafrost. They are traditionally employed by indigenous Arctic peoples to store harvested wildlife. Recent reports from Alaska i...

One of the most significant climate change impacts on arctic urban landscapes is the warming and degradation of permafrost, which negatively affects the structural integrity of infrastructure. We estimate potential changes in stability of Russian urban infrastructure built on permafrost in response to the projected climatic changes provided by six preselected General Circulation Models (GCMs) participated in the most recent Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The analysis was conducted for the entire extent of the Russian permafrost-affected area. According to our analysis a significant (at least 25%) climate-induced reduction in the urban infrastructure stability throughout the Russian permafrost region should be expected by the mid-21st century. However, the high uncertainty, resulting from the GCM-produced climate projections, prohibits definitive conclusion about the rate and magnitude of potential climate impacts on permafrost infrastructure. Results presented in this paper can serve as guidelines for developing adequate adaptation and mitigation strategy for Russian northern cities.

In some regions underlain by ice-rich permafrost, a consistent, long-term increase in ALT under changing climatic conditions is not supported by observations. The apparent lack of ALT may be attributed to soil consolidation from thawing of the uppermost ice-rich permafrost and subsidence of the ground surface. Four plots established in 1962 at Barrow, Alaska, were re-instrumented in 2003 and surveyed annually using differential GPS technology, accompanied by active-layer probing. Elevation change from 1962 to 2003 was within the interannual variability of the 2003–15 period, indicating net stability in the area. Over the 2003–15 period, however, all four plots experienced subsidence trends of 0.4–1.0 cm/year, resulting in a net elevation change of 8–15 cm. Warmer winters and increased snow depth during this period decreased the potential for frost heave. Warmer summers resulted in thaw penetration into the ice-rich transient layer and ice wedges, leading to the net subsidence in recent years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

One of the most popular policy mechanisms for greenhouse gas emissions regulation is cap-and-trade which is a market-based approach that has come to dominate partially because of its flexibility. With flexibility, however, comes the potential for the clustering of greenhouse gas emissions. To understand whether emissions trading leads to localized clustering of emissions changes, we perform a systematic, spatio-economic assessment of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). We analyze the spatial pattern of emissions changes from individual plants across the EU as well as how the pattern changes during the first two phases of the ETS implementation. Our findings indicate that there was clustering of emissions changes at the EU and country level which peaked at the start of the second phase but declined as the EU ETS matured. We also found that iron and steel, coke ovens, and refining have greater clustering and volatility compared to other industries. Based on the air quality implications of these clustered emissions, certain countries and industry types might need additional attention during the ETS design or redesign process. This study makes a novel contribution by systematically evaluating the spatio-temporal and equity implications of emissions distribution in cap-and-trade systems.

Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.

This article traces the governance path affecting the boom-bust cycle in the Russian Arctic city of Vorkuta as a case study examining the role of institutional capacity and informality in mitigating the consequences of the cycle. The analysis examines the usefulness of various tools, including planning, policy, and informality. It also investigates the role of different actors, including the national and local components of the state and private corporations. The conclusion provides a typology of formal and informal land use tools. Soviet planners failed to foresee the bust and did not make provisions for it. Subsequently, the failure of national and local state policies to provide full solutions, combined with the absence of sufficient investment from private sector corporations, opened the door to a broad-ranging informality that encompasses policy-making, individual entrepreneurship, and associated conceptions of individual actions in society. The Soviet/Russian experience differs from that of other countries because in the last 100 years it has run the full gamut from a planned economy to unbridled capitalism. In cross-national comparison, it demonstrates the potential value of informal practices in situations where there is weak formal institutional capacity.

The Arctic is experiencing an unprecedented rate of environmental and climate change. The active layer (the uppermost layer of soil between the atmosphere and permafrost that freezes in winter and thaws in summer) is sensitive to both climatic and environmental changes, and plays an important role in the functioning, planning, and economic activities of Arctic human and natural ecosystems. This study develops a methodology for modeling and estimating spatial-temporal variations in active layer thickness (ALT) using data from several sites of the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring network, and demonstrates its use in spatial-temporal interpolation. The simplest model’s stochastic component exhibits no spatial or spatio-temporal dependency and is referred to as the naïve model, against which we evaluate the performance of the other models, which assume that the stochastic component exhibits either spatial or spatio-temporal dependency. The methods used to fit the models are then discussed, along with point forecasting. We compare the predicted fit of the various models at key study sites located in the North Slope of Alaska and demonstrate the advantages of space-time models through a series of error statistics such as mean squared error, mean absolute and percent deviance from observed data. We find the difference in performance between the spatio-temporal and remaining models is significant for all three error statistics. The best stochastic spatio-temporal model increases predictive accuracy, compared to the naïve model, of 33.3%, 36.2% and 32.5% on average across the three error metrics at the key sites for a one-year hold out period.

[1] Observations in undisturbed terrain within some regions of the Arctic reveal limited correlation between increasing air temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed layer above ice-rich permafrost. Here we describe landscape-scale, thaw-induced subsidence lacking the topographic contrasts associated with thermokarst terrain. A high-resolution, 11 year record of temperature and vertical movement at the ground surface from contrasting physiographic regions of northern Alaska, obtained with differential global positioning systems technology, indicates that thaw of an ice-rich layer at the top of permafrost has produced decimeter-scale subsidence extending over the entire landscapes. Without specialized observation techniques the subsidence is not apparent to observers at the surface. This “isotropic thaw subsidence” explains the apparent stability of active layer thickness records from some landscapes of northern Alaska, despite warming near-surface air temperatures. Integrated over extensive regions, it may be responsible for thawing large volumes of carbon-rich substrate and could have negative impacts on infrastructure.

IntroductionRussia’s natural resource-rich andlightly populated Arctic region boastsmore than its share of the country’s GDP,and climate change may determine thearea’s future economic expansion andurban settlement patterns. Smith (2010,157-163) predicts a “New North” in whichclimate change will ameliorate the hostilenatural environment, open ice-bound Arc-tic shipping lanes and attract new inhabit-ants. However, Russia’s turbulent freemarket transition has already created a“New North” as the new capitalistic busi-ness model and high costs of residencyhave transformed the economic opportuni-ties and migration and settlement patternsin this remote region.This research compares the migrationmanagement strategies of two Siberiancities, Igarka and Norilsk, as theyattempt to achieve their economic andsocial sustainability in the market context.Located above the Arctic Circle, Igarkaand Norilsk have both experienced popu-lation decline since 1991 (Figure 1). Theyare among the scores of Arctic settle-ments established through Soviet centralplanning that are attempting to reinventthemselves in order to survive. The stateand the region’s powerful naturalresource companies have abandoned theirtraditional paternal role in these settle-ments. Industries have shuttered ordownsized, shedding jobs and social ben-efits and forcing some Arctic residents tomove to larger towns or flee the regionentirely, although other residents lack themeans to do so. As a result, in the farnorth and other peripheral regions demo-graphic changes are distributed unevenly,as some cities, towns, and administrativedistricts shrink while other areas main-tain steady populations or even grow(Heleniak 2009a).According to the Russian PresidentialAdvisor for Climate, Alexander Bedritsky,the Arctic region is inhabited by 1.5% ofthe population although it is responsiblefor about 11% of the country’s GDP,Figure 1. Study sites Norilsk and Igarka are located within the Arctic Circle, along the Yenisei River. The river is an important conduit for theregion’s people and goods. (Cartography by Dmitry Streletskiy)Fall 2012 FOCUS on Geography 77

Increases in air temperature have occurred in most parts of the Arctic in recent decades. Corresponding changes in permafrost and the active layer have resulted in decreases in ground-bearing capacity, which may not have been anticipated at the time of construction in permafrost regions. Permafrost model was coupled with empirically derived solutions adopted from Soviet and Russian construction standards and regulations to estimate the bearing capacity of foundations under rapidly changing climatic conditions, in a variety of geographic and geologic settings. Changes in bearing capacity over the last 40 years were computed for large population and industrial centers within different physiographic and climatic conditions of the Russian Arctic. The largest decreases were found in city of Nadym, where the bearing capacity has decreased by more than 40%. A smaller, but considerable decrease of approximately 20% was estimated for Yakutsk and Salekhard. Spatial model results at a regional scale depict ...

The active layer plays an important role in the functioning of environmental ecosystems and affects many human activities in the polar regions. Regional assessments and predictions of this parameter are critical for many physical and social applications. Large heterogeneity in near-surface permafrost characteristics, including the active layer, even over small distances, creates serious constraints to their evaluation across large geographic extents. Discrepancies between modeled climatic fields add to the uncertainties associated with predicting active-layer thickness (ALT) at regional scales. This study uses a stochastic approach, in combination with an equilibrium permafrost model, to map the geographic distribution of ALT and near-surface permafrost temperature on the North Slope of Alaska. GIS techniques are used to determine the spatial variabilityof ecosystem factors controlling the ground thermal regime within each grid cell of the permafrost model. To incorporate the uncertainty associated with t...

Arctic settlements built on permafrostface rather unique set of geotechnical challenges. On urbanized areas, technogenic transformation of natural landscapes due toconstruction of various types of infrastructure leads to changes in heat exchange in permafrost-atmosphere system. The spatial distribution and intensity of dangerous cryogenic processes in urbanized areas is substantially different from natural background settings found prior to construction. Climate change, especially pronounced in the Arctic, exacerbated these changes. Combination of technogenic pressure and climate change resulted in potentially hazardous situation in respect to operational safety of the buildings and structures built on permafrost. This paper is focused on geotechnical safety issues faced by the Arctic urban centers built on permafrost. Common types of technogenic impacts characteristic for urban settlements wereevaluated based on field observations and modeling techniques. The basic principles of development of deformations are discussed in respect to changing permafrost conditions and operational mode of the structures built on permafrost.

Permafrost degradation of coastal and marine sediments of the Arctic Seas can result in large amounts of methane emitted to the atmosphere. The quantitative assessment of such emissions requires data on variability of methane content in various types of permafrost strata. To evaluate the methane concentrations in sediments and ground ice of the Kara Sea coast, samples were collected at a series of coastal exposures. Methane concentrations were determined for more than 400 samples taken from frozen sediments, ground ice and active layer. In frozen sediments, methane concentrations were lowest in sands and highest in marine clays. In ground ice, the highest concentrations above 500 ppmV and higher were found in massive tabular ground ice, with much lower methane concentrations in ground ice wedges. The mean isotopic composition of methane is &minus, 68.6&permil, in permafrost and &minus, 63.6&permil, in the active layer indicative of microbial genesis. The isotopic compositions of the active layer is enriched relative to permafrost due to microbial oxidation and become more depleted with depth. Ice-rich sediments of Kara Sea coasts, especially those with massive tabular ground ice, hold large amounts of methane making them potential sources of methane emissions under projected warming temperatures and increasing rates of coastal erosion.

Climatic changes over the last 50 years resulted in a decrease of permafrost extent, an increase of permafrost temperature, and deepening of the active layer in numerous locations across the Arctic and High Mountainous environments. Permafrost degradation poses serious impacts ranging from local changes in topographic and hydrologic conditions, impacts on infrastructure and sustainability of northern communities, changes to vegetation and wildlife dynamics, and to global impacts on climate system. Hazards associated with permafrost degradation are exacerbated in areas of human activities, especially in large settlements with developed infrastructure in the Arctic. Unlike smaller communities, which have higher mobility, large population centers have to build in situ adaptive capacity to face environmental changes. Permafrost degradation can have severe socioeconomic consequences as most of the existing infrastructure will require expensive engineering solutions to maintain economic activities on permafrost.

The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) data from Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of GTN-P is to establish an early warning system for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we introduce the GTN-P database and perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata to identify and quantify the spatial gaps in the site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the data management system in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies based on national correspondents. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63 % metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50 % metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi tessellation analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides a potential method to locate additional permafrost research sites by improving the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73 % are shallower than 25 m and 27 % are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations, which are illustrated with maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high representation of areas with smaller expected temperature rise but a lower number of sites within Arctic areas where climate models project extreme temperature increase. GTN-P metadata used in this paper are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.842821.

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.

[1] A continuous time series of annual soil thaw records, extending from 1994 to 2009, is available for comparison with the records of thaw obtained from the Biocomplexity Experiment (BE) for the period 2006–2009. Discontinuous records of thaw at Barrow from wet tundra sites date back to the 1960s. Comparisons between the longer records with the BE observations reveal strong similarities. Records of permafrost temperature, reflecting changes in the annual surface energy exchange, are available from the 1950s for comparison with results from measurement programs begun in 2002. The long-term systematic geocryological investigations at Barrow indicate an increase in permafrost temperature, especially during the last several years. The increase in near-surface permafrost temperature is most pronounced in winter. Marked trends are not apparent in the active-layer record, although subsidence measurements on the North Slope indicate that penetration into the ice-rich layer at the top of permafrost has occurred over the past decade. Active-layer thickness values from the 1960s are generally higher than those from the 1990s, and are very similar to those of the 2000s. Analysis of spatial active-layer observations at representative locations demonstrates significant variations in active-layer thickness between different landscape types, reflecting the influence of vegetation, substrate, microtopography, and, especially, soil moisture. Landscape-specific differences exist in the response of active-layer thickness to climatic forcing. These differences are attributable to the existence of localized controls related to combinations of surface and subsurface characteristics. The geocryological records at Barrow illustrate the importance and effectiveness of sustained, well organized monitoring efforts to document long-term trends.