Search

Antarctica hosts some of the harshest and most remote environments on Earth - and it is a region of vital importance for scientific research. The environment and position of Antarctica on the globe mean that research conducted there can offer unique insights on important Earth processes, including rising sea level, the carbon cycle, ecosystem structure. As the climate warms, data gathered from Antarctic research will be essential to understanding how Earth processes are changing and the potential social, economic, and health impacts on both U.S. and global populations. This report identifies the highest priorities for research in the Southern Ocean and nearshore and coastal Antarctica, as well as gaps in current capabilities to support this research. Global sea level rise, heat and carbon budgets, and changing ecosystems are the three highest-priority science drivers for research in the region. To address those drivers and maintain a robust U.S. research presence in this vitally important region, investments are needed in the U.S. Antarctic program and its research platforms, including the development of new technologies and the replacement of aging icebreaking research vessels. Additionally, the U.S. should strengthen relationships with other nations'Antarctic programs that can help support these essential science drivers.

Involvement of animals in scientific research can elicit strong emotions and responses from some members of the public, in part because the information they receive is inadequate. There is therefore an urgent need for scientists who conduct research involving animals to communicate more effectively about their work. To identify strategies for effective communication, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop in December 19-20, 2023, entitled Effective Communication with the General Public About Scientific Research That Requires the Care and Use of Animals. The workshop focused on enhancing public understanding of scientific research with animals, how research animals are cared for and treated, the ethical considerations that are involved in these activities, and how research with animals has contributed to improvements in animal and human health. Participants explored characteristics of effective communication, ways to integrate information from scientists into media for diverse public audiences, and opportunities to address challenges in understanding research with animals.

A scientific workforce with cutting-edge skills is critical for the ability of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to carry out its mission to protect human health by identifying environmental hazards, evaluating risks to public health and ecosystems, and formulating effective methods for pollution control and prevention. To aid in the selection and hiring of premier scientists and engineers, in 2006, EPA first sought the ability to directly recruit world-renowned scientists and engineers from academia, private industry, and other government agencies under Title 42, Section 209, of the U.S. Code. Title 42 authorizes federal agencies to appoint highly qualified scientists and engineers outside of standard civil service positions. Congress reauthorizes the EPA Title 42 authority in 5-year increments. To guide decisions about the future of the program, Congress asked the National Academies to review past and current EPA use of Title 42 hiring authority and how the program might be improved. The report finds that EPA has used its limited Title 42 authority effectively since 2006 and that Title 42 authority has enabled the hiring of effective scientific leadership and improved the scientific capability and capacity to support the Agency mission. Furthermore, the report finds that Title 42 can help the agency in addressing future environmental complexities. In continuing to enhance its scientific workforce and maintain a position at the forefront of evolving scientific knowledge, EPA would benefit from Congressional approval for permanent Title 42 authority.

To facilitate scientific progress and collaboration while also protecting personal privacy, the integrity of research investments, and national security, it is important for life science data to be collected, digitized, secured, and shared responsibly. To exchange experiences and collaboratively discuss best practices for protecting life science data and promoting responsible data sharing in Central Asia, the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop series titled Engaging Scientists in Central Asia on Life Science Data Governance Principles, held virtually across six 2-hour sessions in May and June 2023. The workshop series brought together early-career and established scientists, along with experts in data science, cybersecurity, and law, from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, the United States, Uzbekistan, and elsewhere to explore existing policies and practices, gaps and limitations, fundamental concepts relevant to data governance, and opportunities for improvement in data sharing practices and governance structures.

To advance a systems understanding of climate-related security risks in the Central America region, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop titled Climate Security in Central America on May 3-4, 2023. The workshop was held under the auspices of the National Academies Climate Security Roundtable. Over two days, workshop participants considered some of the underlying environmental, social, economic, and political dynamics at play in Central America; they explored indicators and pathways for climate-related security risks in the region; and they considered the available tools for analyzing and forecasting these risks. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

The transition to renewable energy has spurred many efforts to scale up the U.S. portfolio of efficient clean energy resources, including the development of offshore wind farms. The Nantucket Shoals region off the coast of Massachusetts is the first large scale wind farm installation under development in U.S. waters. To ensure Nantucket Shoals region offshore wind energy installations are being planned, constructed, and developed in an environmentally responsible way, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) asked the National Academies to evaluate the potential for offshore wind farms in the Nantucket Shoals region to affect oceanic physical processes, and, in turn, how those hydrodynamic alterations might affect local to regional ecosystems. Of particular interest to BOEM are the potential effects of hydrodynamic changes on zooplankton productivity and aggregations, which may affect foraging for the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale. This report found the impacts of offshore wind projects on the North Atlantic right whale and the availability of their prey in the Nantucket Shoals region will likely be difficult to distinguish from the significant impacts of climate change and other influences on the ecosystem. Further study and monitoring of the oceanography and ecology of the Nantucket Shoals region is needed to fully understand the impact of future wind farms. This report recommends the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and others should promote observational studies and modeling that will advance understanding of potential hydrodynamic effects and their consequent impacts on ecology in the Nantucket Shoals region during all phases of wind energy development.

The assessment of risk is complex and often controversial. It is derived from the existence of a hazard, and it is characterized by the uncertainty of possible undesirable events and their outcomes. Few outcomes are as undesirable as nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. Over the decades, much has been written about particular situations, policies, and weapons that might affect the risks of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism. The nature of the concerns and the risk analysis methods used to evaluate them have evolved considerably over time. At the request of the Department of Defense, Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism discusses risks, explores the risk assessment literature, highlights the strengths and weaknesses of risk assessment approaches, and discusses some publicly available assumptions that underpin U.S. security strategies, all in the context of nuclear war and nuclear terrorism.

Addressing climate change is essential and possible, and it offers a host of benefits - from better public health to new economic opportunities. The United States has a historic opportunity to lead the way in decarbonization by transforming its current energy system to one with net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide. Recent legislation has set the nation on the path to reach its goal of net zero by 2050 in order to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. However, even if implemented as designed, current policy will get the United States only part of the way to its net-zero goal. Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States provides a comprehensive set of actionable recommendations to help policymakers achieve a just and equitable energy transition over the next decade and beyond, including policy, technology, and societal dimensions. This report addresses federal and subnational policy needs to overcome implementation barriers and gaps with a focus on energy justice, workforce development, public health, and public engagement. The report also presents a suite of recommendations for the electricity, transportation, built environment, industrial, fossil fuels, land use, and finance sectors.

Across multiple domains of science, engineering, and medicine, excitement is growing about the potential of digital twins to transform scientific research, industrial practices, and many aspects of daily life. A digital twin couples computational models with a physical counterpart to create a system that is dynamically updated through bidirectional data flows as conditions change. Going beyond traditional simulation and modeling, digital twins could enable improved medical decision-making at the individual patient level, predictions of future weather and climate conditions over longer timescales, and safer, more efficient engineering processes. However, many challenges remain before these applications can be realized. This report identifies the foundational research and resources needed to support the development of digital twin technologies. The report presents critical future research priorities and an interdisciplinary research agenda for the field, including how federal agencies and researchers across domains can best collaborate.

Fisheries are essential to the global economy and feed billions around the world; they, support individuals and communities, and sustain cultural heritages and livelihoods. Although U.S. fisheries have been managed for commercial fishing historically, there has been an interest more recently in better accounting for and meeting the needs of the diverse individuals, groups, and communities that rely on and participate in fisheries, or aspire to do so. At the request of the National Marine Fisheries Service, this report considers information needs and data collection for assessing the distribution of fisheries management benefits. Assessing Equity in the Distribution of Fisheries Management Benefits identifies information needs, obstacles to collecting information, and potential methodologies for assessing where and to whom the primary benefits of commercial and for-hire fishery management accrue.

Climate change is fundamentally changing ecosystems and their fire conditions, and the 2023 fire season highlighted the urgency of developing and implementing solutions to address wildland fires. Wildland fires transfer carbon between the land and the atmosphere through emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), along with other gasses and particles. Though fires can be a natural part of healthy, evolving ecosystems, large, uncontrolled wildland fires can have devastating consequences to human health, communities, and biodiversity. Human-driven changes in wildland fire regimes have the potential to increase GHG emissions at a scale that could inhibit global efforts to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in the coming decades. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on September 13-15, 2023, to identify opportunities to improve measurements and model projections of GHG emissions from wildland fires and discuss management practices that could be incorporated into current and future action plans. Participants emphasized the importance of learning from historic and current Indigenous fire management practices and centering Indigenous voices and leadership across all stages of fire management. Different global ecosystems - particularly temperate, boreal, and tropical biomes - have been impacted by climate and land use changes where historical fire regimes and the carbon balance have been disrupted. However, discussions highlighted the diverse set of available regionally differentiated and ecosystem-appropriate mitigation strategies. With improved understanding of fires and their GHG emissions, better information for mitigation and management, and incorporation of wildfire GHG emissions into national accounting mechanisms, practitioners, communities, and decision makers will be better equipped to prepare, adapt, and respond to future wildland fires.

Macroeconomic models, essential for decision making and federal budget planning, may not appropriately consider the wide breadth of climate-related impacts that potentially have large macroeconomic significance. Challenges integrating climate factors into macroeconomic analyses can stem from the complexity of macroeconomics, climate science, policy instruments, and their interactions. Although economists have made progress in developing tools to understand climate-related impacts on the macroeconomy, much of the climate and macroeconomic research has historically been conducted in disciplinary silos that can limit a holistic understanding of climate-related impacts on the macroeconomy. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, under the auspices of the Roundtable on Macroeconomics and Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities, convened a workshop on June 14-15, 2023, to consider current macroeconomic models and suggest opportunities that may improve the incorporation of climate-related factors into macroeconomic modeling. Through panels of invited speakers and an interactive breakout discussion, the workshop explored an array of macroeconomic models and potential pathways to integrate some of the physical and transition effects of climate change. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

At the request of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, the National Academies convened a committee to examine lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and mpox multi-country outbreak to inform an evaluation of the state of smallpox research, development, and stockpiling of medical countermeasures (MCM). In the resulting report, the committee presents findings and conclusions that may inform U.S. Government investment decisions in smallpox MCM readiness, as well as the official U.S. position on the disposition of live viral collections at future World Health Assembly meetings.

To facilitate scientific progress and collaboration while also protecting personal privacy, the integrity of research investments, and national security, it is important for life science data to be collected, digitized, secured, and shared responsibly. To exchange experiences and collaboratively discuss best practices for protecting life science data and promoting responsible data sharing in Central Asia, the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop series titled Engaging Scientists in Central Asia on Life Science Data Governance Principles, held virtually across six 2-hour sessions in May and June 2023. The workshop series brought together early-career and established scientists, along with experts in data science, cybersecurity, and law, from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, the United States, Uzbekistan, and elsewhere to explore existing policies and practices, gaps and limitations, fundamental concepts relevant to data governance, and opportunities for improvement in data sharing practices and governance structures.

The United States and the world face serious threats to nuclear stability and peace, now and in the coming decades. Within the nuclear arena, U.S. policy makers will need to make strategic decisions related to nuclear risks to assist with long-term planning as well as responding in real time to unanticipated events. The occurrence of unanticipated nuclear events is expected to increase as more countries develop, expand, or field nuclear energy capability; more countries consider development of nuclear weapon capability and new nuclear weapon states emerge; and nuclear weapon states expand their nuclear arsenals. At the request of the Department of Defense, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established and managed the Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism to explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the unclassified Phase 2 version of the final classified report. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II builds on an earlier Phase I unclassified report. This book expands upon the use of analytical methods to assess the risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war and the role such approaches may play in U.S. security strategy.

The extraction of mineral resources provides the raw materials necessary to produce the products and technologies on which the global economy depends, including green technologies essential for decarbonization. Mineral extraction requires expertise in a range of areas - including mineral resources identification, environmental evaluation, processing, and reclamation - but many of the U.S. academic programs that have historically educated the U.S. minerals workforce face significant challenges attracting students and maintaining financial viability. For some programs, enrollment dropped 60 percent from 2015 to 2023, despite a growing demand for a minerals workforce. The National Academies convened a workshop on January 23-24, 2024 to consider how the United States can build the capacity of federal and state agencies, academia, and the private sector to meet U.S. mineral workforce needs. Participants addressed the urgent need to attract more students, discussed a need to integrate new disciplines into curricula as the industry evolves, and identified multipronged approaches to help enhance overall retention and recruitment. This proceedings synthesizes the key suggestions presented by participants that universities, companies, and government agencies could take to enhance the recruitment, training, and retention of workers in the mineral resources industry.

Research supported by scientific ocean drilling has fundamentally transformed our understanding of the planet with key contributions to the discovery and theory of plate tectonics; the formation and destruction of ocean crust; the reconstruction of extreme greenhouse and icehouse climates; the identification of major extinctions; and the discovery of a diverse community of microbes living deep ocean seafloor. With the retirement in 2024 of the JOIDES Resolution-- the U.S. dedicated drilling vessel for deep sea research and the workhorse for the international scientific ocean drilling community-- the scientific ocean drilling landscape will change. At this critical juncture, the National Science Foundation (NSF) is looking to identify the most urgent research questions that can only be answered with scientific ocean drilling and what infrastructure is needed to progress those priorities. This interim report that is the first part of a broader study of decadal survey of ocean science provides a broad perspective of future research and associated infrastructure needs. The report concludes that the rapid pace of climate change, related extreme events, sea level rise, changes in ocean currents, chemistry threatening ocean ecosystems, and devastating natural hazards are among the greatest challenges facing society. By coring the past to inform the future, U.S. based scientific ocean drilling research continues to have unique and essential roles in addressing these vital and urgent challenges.

A White Paper on Building a Scientific Roadmap to a Carbon-Negative Agricultural System was drafted by a scientific working group of the U.S. Farmers & Ranchers in Action (USFRA). At the request of the USFRA and with support from the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine appointed a six-person committee to review the draft white paper by examining its clarity of key messages, effectiveness of organization, and scientific rigor.

Concerted efforts to deepen understanding of RNA modifications and their role in living systems hold the potential to advance human health, improve crop yields, and address other pressing societal challenges. RNA, which carries the information encoded by DNA to the places where it is needed, is amazingly diverse and dynamic. RNA is processed and modified through natural biological pathways, giving rise to hundreds, in some cases thousands, of distinct RNA molecules for each gene, thereby diversifying genetic information. RNA modifications are known to be pivotal players in nearly all biological processes, and their dysregulation has been implicated in a wide range of human diseases and disorders. Yet, our knowledge of RNA modifications remains incomplete, hindered by current technological limitations. Existing methods cannot discover all RNA modifications, let alone comprehensively sequence them on every RNA molecule. Nonetheless, what is known about RNA modifications has already been leveraged in the development of vaccines that helped saved millions of lives worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. RNA modifications also have applications beyond health, for example, enhancing agricultural productivity. Charting a Future for Sequencing RNA and Its Modifications: A New Era for Biology and Medicine calls for a focused, large-scale effort to accelerate technological innovation to harness the full potential of RNA modifications to address pressing societal challenges in health, agriculture, and beyond. This report assesses the scientific and technological breakthroughs, workforce, and infrastructure needs to sequence RNA and its modifications, and ultimately understand the roles RNA modifications play in biological processes and disease. It proposes a roadmap of innovation that will make it possible for any RNA from any biological system to be sequenced end-to-end with all of its modifications - a capability that could lead to more personalized and targeted treatments and instigate transformative changes across various sectors beyond health and medicine.

Roughly every four years, the U.S. Global Change Research Program produces a congressionally mandated assessment of global change science and the impacts, adaptation, and mitigation of climate change in the United States. The draft Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), released publicly in November 2022, covers a wide range of U.S. impacts, from human health and community well-being to the built environment, businesses and economies, and ecosystems and water resources. NCA5 had the largest scale of collaboration to date in the series, with input from hundreds of experts from all levels of governments, academia, non-government organizations, the private sector, and the public. The National Academies report provides an independent, comprehensive review and makes recommendations to strengthen the accuracy, credibility, and accessibility of the draft NCA5 report. The National Academies'review of the draft NCA5 report finds that it successfully meets the requirements of the federal mandate, provides accurate information, and effectively communicates climate science to the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders. The review makes recommendations for ways the draft NCA5 report could be strengthened, including: adopting more clear and consistent structure for key messages and figures across the report; resolving inconsistencies between chapters in how terms and topics are discussed, for example the use of scenarios and projections; intentionally applying an equity and justice lens across chapters; and increasing emphasis on certain topical areas.

Over the past century, the Everglades has been dramatically altered by drainage and water management infrastructure intended to improve flood management, urban water supply, and agricultural production. Less than half of the original Everglades remain, and these remnants compete for water with urban and agricultural interests, all the while being impaired by contaminated runoff. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) was established in 2000 as a joint effort by the state and federal government to reverse the decline of the ecosystem. The multibillion project aims to restore the ecosystem over the course of 30 to 40 years by reestablishing the natural hydrological characteristics of the Everglades where feasible and ultimately creating a water system that serves both the natural and human needs of South Florida. Since 2004, a National Academies committee has provided a series of independent, peer-reviewed assessments of CERP progress. Implementation of CERP projects has occurred at a remarkable pace over the past two years due to record funding levels. Ecosystem responses are evident over large areas of the central and western Everglades after implementation of recent restoration initiatives. This progress in implementation has increased the importance of analyzing and synthesizing natural system responses. The committee review of ongoing progress highlights the need for rigorous scientific support for water quality improvement in stormwater treatment areas and modeling for a wider range of plausible climate conditions. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Ninth Biennial Review - 2022 recommends the development of a multiagency Everglades restoration science plan to ensure the needed tools, research, analysis, and synthesis are available to support critical restoration management decisions.

Ecosystems form the foundation upon which society can survive and thrive, providing food, water, air, materials, and recreation. These connections between people and their environments are under stress from human-driven climate change, pollution, resource exploitation, and other actions that may have implications for public health. The integral connection between nature and human health is recognized and has been explored through different bodies of work; however, because of the breadth of this issue, many implications regarding public health are not well characterized. This has created a gap in understanding the interconnections between public health and ecosystem health systems and how ecosystem resiliency may affect public health. To inform the development of a research agenda aimed at bridging the knowledge-to-action gap related to integrating public and ecological health to foster resilience, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop across three days that brought together interdisciplinary researchers and practitioners from the public health, natural resource management, and environmental protection communities to exchange knowledge, discuss critical gaps in understanding and practice, and identify promising research that could support the development of domestic and international policy and practice. Day 1 of the workshop, held on September 19, 2022, addressed the following question: What has been learned about how to integrate public health and nature into research, policy, and practice to foster resilience? Days 2 and 3, held on September 29 and 30, 2022, explored advancement opportunities in transdisciplinary and community-engaged scholarship to improve integration of public health and nature and inform policy and practice and opportunities to bridge the knowledge-to-action gap with strategies to translate knowledge into policy and practice. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

People spend the vast majority of their time inside their homes and other indoor environments where they are exposed to a wide range of chemicals from building materials, furnishings, occupants, cooking, consumer products, and other sources. Despite research to date, very little is known about how exposures to indoor chemicals across complex chemical phases and pathways affect human health. The COVID-19 pandemic has only increased public awareness of indoor environments and shed light on the many outstanding questions about how best to manage chemicals indoors. This report identifies gaps in current research and understanding of indoor chemistry and new approaches that can be applied to measure, manage, and limit chemical exposures. Why Indoor Chemistry Matters calls for further research about the chemical transformations that can occur indoors, pathways and timing of indoor chemical exposure, and the cumulative and long-term impacts of exposure on human health. Research priorities should consider factors that contribute to measurable environmental health disparities that affect vulnerable populations, such as the age, location, and condition of buildings that can alter exposures to indoor chemicals.

Virginia was one of the first major gold-producing states in the U.S., but it has seen only limited and intermittent gold mining activity in the last 70 years. Recent increase in gold prices and other factors have brought renewed attention to mining gold at both new and historical sites in Virginia. This report provides an evaluation of the gold deposits in Virginia, the probable modern mining techniques that could be used at such deposits, and whether existing regulations in the Commonwealth are sufficient to protect air and water quality and human health from potential impacts of gold mining activities. The report concludes that the regulatory framework of Virginia appears to have been designed for operations like crushed stone quarrying and sand and gravel operations, not gold mining. Thus, the current regulatory framework is not adequate to address the potential impacts of commercial gold mining and lacks an adequate financial assurance system, which poses a fiscal and environmental risk to the Commonwealth. Additionally, Virginia lacks opportunities for the public to be engaged in permitting processes and a modern system for review of environmental impacts from potential gold mining projects.

The ocean is central to the health of the planet and the well-being of human societies, but ongoing depletion, disruption, and pollution threaten its future. The United Nations proclaimed 2021-2030 the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (UN Ocean Decade) in recognition of the need to sustainably manage the Ocean. U.S. participation in the Decade, guided by the U.S. National Committee, included a call for'Ocean-Shots'- ambitious, transformational research concepts that draw from multiple disciplines. More than 100 Ocean-Shots were submitted. Conducted at the request of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and sponsored by NASA, this report identifies exciting themes from the Ocean-Shots that will galvanize action and inspire transformative, cross-disciplinary, and multi-generational participation in the Decade. Two foundational themes undergird how to go about science: An Inclusive and Equitable Ocean calls for the involvement of a diverse and representative ocean community, and An Ocean of Data recognizes the shift toward open access for data that is collected. Four topical themes - The Ocean Revealed, The Restored and Sustainable Ocean, Ocean Solutions for Climate Resilience, and Healthy Urban Sea - represent promising areas for research investments that are consistent both with the UN Ocean Decade Outcomes and U.S. ocean priorities.

Steel is a common component of U.S. infrastructure, but that steel can corrode when buried in soil, rock, or fill. Steel corrosion is estimated to cost the United States 3-4 percent of its gross domestic product every year, and it can lead to infrastructure failure, loss of lives, property, disruption of energy and transportation systems, and damage to the environment. Although the mechanisms of steel corrosion are well understood, limited data on subsurface corrosion and the inability to measure corrosivity directly make accurate corrosion prediction through modeling a challenge. When hazardous levels of corrosion does occur, it is difficult to determine whether the cause was related to site selection, engineering decisions, changes in subsurface conditions, or a combination of these factors. This report explores the state of knowledge and technical issues regarding the corrosion of steel used for earth applications (e.g., for ground stabilization, pipelines, and infrastructure foundations) in unconsolidated earth or rock in different geologic settings. The report summarizes mechanisms of steel corrosion, assesses the state of practice for characterizing factors in the subsurface environment that influence corrosion and corrosion rates, and assesses the efficacy and uncertainties associated with quantitative, field, and laboratory methods for predicting corrosion. The industries and experts most involved with managing buried steel should collaborate to improve multidisciplinary understanding of the processes that drive buried steel corrosion. Developing a common lexicon related to buried steel corrosion, generating new data on corrosion through collaborative long-term experiments, sharing and managing data, and developing new data analytical techniques to inform infrastructure design, construction, and management decisions are key. Industries, experts, and regulators should collaboratively develop decision support systems that guide site characterization and help manage risk. These systems and new data should undergird a common clearinghouse for data on corrosion of buried steel, which will ultimately inform better and more efficient management of buried steel infrastructure, and protect safety and the environment.

The United States has deployed commercial nuclear power since the 1950s, and as of 2021, nuclear power accounts for approximately 20 percent of U.S. electricity generation. The current commercial nuclear fleet consists entirely of thermal-spectrum, light water reactors operating with low-enriched uranium dioxide fuel in a once-through fuel cycle. In recent years, the U.S. Congress, U.S. Department of Energy, and private sector have expressed considerable interest in developing and deploying advanced nuclear reactors to augment, and possibly replace, the U.S. operating fleet of reactors, nearly all of which will reach the end of their currently licensed operating lives by 2050. Much of this interest stems from the potential ability of advanced reactors and their associated fuel cycles - as claimed by their designers and developers - to provide a number of advantages, such as improvements in economic competitiveness, reductions in environmental impact via better natural resource utilization and/or lower waste generation, and enhancements in nuclear safety and proliferation resistance. At the request of Congress, this report explores merits and viability of different nuclear fuel cycles, including fuel cycles that may use reprocessing, for both existing and advanced reactor technologies; and waste management (including transportation, storage, and disposal options) for advanced reactors, and in particular, the potential impact of advanced reactors and their fuel cycles on waste generation and disposal.

As part of its responsibilities under the Clean Air Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sets National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for the air pollutants carbon monoxide, lead, oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter, ozone, and sulfur dioxide. EPA uses a'weight of evidence approach'to evaluate evidence from scientific studies and describe the causal relationships between these'criteria pollutants'and any adverse impacts on human health and on public welfare - including impacts on wildlife, water, forests, agriculture, and climate. The evaluation, called an Integrated Science Assessment, is used to inform standards setting associated with the criteria pollutants. This report, produced at the request of EPA, describes EPAs and several other frameworks for inferring causality of health or welfare effects and the characteristics of evidence useful for forming a causal determination. The report concludes that EPAs causal framework is effective, reliable, and scientifically defensible, provided that key scientific questions are identified and a range of necessary expertise is engaged. More transparency in how EPA integrates evidence could improve confidence in their determinations, and more guidance is needed in the framework on how evidence should be examined for vulnerable groups (e.g., human sub-populations) and sensitive ecosystems or species.

The South Asia region presents a confluence of major climate impacts and key security issues. From a weather and climate standpoint, the region experiences a wide range of hazards, such as the recent heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods that have upended the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. From a demographic and socioeconomic standpoint, the region is experiencing rapid transformations and progress, even as fundamental challenges such as poverty and inequality persist. From a security standpoint, the region is the setting for a range of social and political dynamics that impact U.S. interests, including conflict at national and subnational levels; regional rivalries; and the imprint of global geopolitics. On October 26-27, 2022, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, under the auspices of the National Academies Climate Security Roundtable, convened a workshop to explore climate security in South Asia. Over two days, workshop participants considered some of the underlying climate, development, and geopolitical dynamics at play in the South Asia region; explored a set of historical case studies and future scenarios for climate change and security in South Asia; and they considered the available tools for analysis and forecasting climate-related risks. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

While technologies are clearly instrumental in transitioning away from fossil fuel-based energy and toward a decarbonized economy, decisions about which technologies are prioritized, how they are implemented, and the policies that drive these changes will have profound effects on people and communities, with important implications for equity, jobs, environmental and energy justice, health, and more. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions was tasked with assessing the broad range of technological, policy, and societal dimensions of decarbonizing the U.S. economy. The committee produced a 2021 report that provides the U.S. government with a roadmap of equitable and robust decarbonization policies. The next report of the committee will address the broader range of policy actors who play a role in equitable energy transition. To inform its deliberations, the committee hosted a 1-day workshop on July 26, 2022 to discuss critical issues of equity and justice during the energy transition. The goal of the workshop, titled Pathways to an Equitable and Just Transition: Principles, Best Practices, and Inclusive Stakeholder Engagement, was to move beyond energy technologies and elicit ideas and insights to inform the development of principles, best practices, and actionable recommendations for a broad range of policy actors and stakeholders in order to fully operationalize equity, justice, and inclusion. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

Sunscreens and a variety of other products contain chemical ultraviolet (UV) filters that absorb or block the sun's radiation and thereby help mitigate harms to human skin from the sun. The 2022 NASEM report Review of Fate, Exposure, and Effects of Sunscreens in Aquatic Environments and Implications for Sunscreen Usage and Human Health called on the EPA to conduct an ecological risk assessment of UV filters to characterize the possible risks to aquatic ecosystems and the species that live in them. However, the 2022 report also identified a number of knowledge gaps and research barriers that may limit understanding of those ecological risks. To share progress and identify opportunities to further address gaps and barriers, NASEM hosted a workshop in Washington, D.C., on January 23-24, 2023, entitled Workshop to Advance Research on Understanding Environmental Effects of UV Filters in Sunscreens. Through a series of prepared talks, panel discussions, and structured breakout discussions, participants examined the 2022 report and its management context; explored data needs and analytical challenges relevant to the development of accurate toxicity metrics for UV filters; and suggested opportunities to improve and standardize toxicity testing for these chemicals. These proceedings has been prepared by the workshop rapporteur as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop.

The ultimate goal of planetary protection for outbound missions is to prevent harmful contamination that would inhibit future measurements designed to search for evidence of the existence or evolution of extraterrestrial life. Preventing harmful contamination is achieved by following specific guidelines based on existing scientific knowledge about the destination and the type of mission. This report responds to NASA's request for a study on planetary protection categorization of missions to small bodies, including whether there are particular populations of small bodies for which contamination of one object in the population would not be likely to have a tangible effect on the opportunities for scientific investigation using other objects in the population. In addressing NASA's request, the authoring committee considered surface composition of target bodies and their importance for prebiotic chemistry, along with size of the small-body populations, the current state of knowledge on the types of objects, the likelihood of a future scientific mission returning to any specific object, active object surface processes, and the size.

The Hanford Nuclear Reservation in the state of Washington produced about two-thirds of the nations plutonium for nuclear weapons from 1944 until the last reactor was shut down in 1987. The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) manages the ongoing clean-up at Hanford and has built a plant to convert the high-level radioactive waste into a glass form (vitrification) for safe disposal. However, decisions remain about how best to treat and dispose of the low-level waste at Hanford, which comprises over 90% of the volume of waste. To inform its decision, DOE contracted with key Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDC), led by Savannah River National Laboratory, to carry out an analysis. This final in a trilogy of reports from the National Academies reviews the FFRDC third report released in January 2023. The review finds that the FFRDC team made a strong technical case that converting the supplemental low-level waste from the vitrification process to a grout form (like cement) is the best option in terms of cost-effectiveness and timeliness, and that off-site disposal of that grout is a valid option as it will be away from potable water. The FFRDC provided a useful framework to help decision-makers understand the issues and trade-offs of the disposal options and did an excellent job of isolating specific factual considerations that can be analyzed, often quantified, and compared with each other. The FFRDC chose to provide a purely technical analysis that excluded analysis of two important factors to be considered - securing regulatory permissions and public acceptance - treating them, for now, as uncertainties. Looking ahead, the DOE faces many uncertainties and should emphasize flexibility in its overall approach, allowing for multiple, redundant options and pathways, as well as the ability to change over time.

In 2016, the National Science Foundation (NSF) established a five-year program on Understanding the Rules of Life (URoL) to identify generalizable rules that govern biological systems at micro and macro levels. At the request of NSF, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a series of workshops to explore the achievements of the URoL program. Presenters and participants discussed integration of multi-disciplinary, systems-level approaches, broader implications for studying highly complex systems, future scientific questions and future societal needs, and the production of generalizable rules that apply to different fields and scales. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

As part of its core mission, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is tasked with assessing the hazards and risks to human health from exposure to pollutants. While some pollutants are well studied, there are little or no data on the potential health effects for many thousands of chemicals that can make their way into the environment, such as PFAS. EPA still relies on laboratory mammalian studies as the foundation of most human health risk assessments, which are limited by high costs, long timelines, and other concerns. New approach methods (NAMs) in toxicology, for example new in vivo and in vitro strategies and computational systems biology, offer opportunities to inform timely decision-making when no data are available from laboratory mammalian toxicity tests or epidemiological studies. NAMs may also help inform efforts to protect susceptible and vulnerable populations by characterizing subtle health perturbations, better encompassing genetic diversity, and accounting for nonchemical stressors. While the promise and need for NAMs is clear, many barriers to their use remain. This report aims to bridge the gap between the potential of NAMs and their practical application in human health risk assessment. Building Confidence in New Evidence Streams for Human Health Risk Assessment draws lessons learned from laboratory mammalian toxicity tests to help inform approaches for building scientific confidence in NAMs and for incorporating such data into risk assessment and decision-making. Overall, the report recommendations aim to ensure a seamless handoff from the evaluation of NAM-based testing strategies in the laboratory to the incorporation of NAM data into modern, systematic-review-based risk assessments.

The National Academies Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, and Board on Children Youth and Families convened a workshop in August 2022 to explore the impact of specific environmental exposures in utero, infancy, early childhood, and adolescence. Experts in epidemiology, toxicology, dose response methodology, and exposure science explored gaps in knowledge around vulnerabilities to environmental hazards as well as opportunities to inform public policy moving forward. This Proceedings of the workshop summarizes important discussions held during the virtual event and outlines recommendations for ways the Environmental Protection Agency can incorporate new research methods into its risk assessments.

Extreme weather and wildfires, intensified by climate change, are damaging the native plant communities of landscapes across the United States. Native plant communities are foundational to thriving ecosystems, delivering goods and services that regulate the environment and support life, provide food and shelter for a wide range of native animals, and embody a wealth of genetic information with many beneficial applications. Restoring impaired ecosystems requires a supply of diverse native plant seeds that are well suited to the climates, soils, and other living species of the system. This report examines the needs for native plant restoration and other activities, provides recommendations for improving the reliability, predictability, and performance of the native seed supply, and presents an ambitious agenda for action. An Assessment of Native Seed Needs and the Capacity for Their Supply considers the various challenges facing our natural landscapes and calls for a coordinated public-private effort to scale-up and secure a cost-effective national native seed supply.

Chemistry plays a pivotal role in the strength of the U.S. economy and the advancement of humankind. Chemists'achievements include life-saving pharmaceuticals, advanced energy solutions, improved agricultural productivity, and novel materials used in products from clothing to electronic devices. The many sectors reliant on the U.S. chemical economy account for about 25% of the U.S. GDP and support 4.1 million U.S. jobs. However, a new and evolving chemistry landscape requires changes with regard to funding, training, and a focus on integrating sustainability into manufacturing, product usage, and product disposal. This report identifies strategies and options for research investments that will support U.S. leadership while considering environmental sustainability and developing a diverse chemical economy workforce with equitable opportunities for all chemistry talent. The report recommends that funding agencies and philanthropic organizations who support the chemical sciences fund as large a breadth of fundamental research projects as possible. Chemical industry and their partners at universities, scientific research institutions, and national laboratories should align the objectives of fundamental research to directly assist with new practices toward environmental stewardship, sustainability, and clean energy. Additionally, the report recommends that funding agencies make substantial investment toward education research to enable innovative ways of teaching about emerging concepts, tools and technologies.

Formaldehyde is widely present in the environment and is one of the highest production chemicals by volume, used in manufactured goods including wood products, permanent press fabrics, and household products. It is also formed by combustion sources and is present in smoke from cigarettes and other tobacco products, and in emissions from gas stoves and open fireplaces. In carrying out its mission to protect human health, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) identifies and characterizes the health hazards of chemicals found in the environment through its Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Program, which has reviewed the human health hazards resulting from formaldehyde exposure in several assessments. This report is a continuation of guidance from the National Academies on draft IRIS assessments of formaldehyde and other aspects of the IRIS program. This report reviews the 2022 Draft Assessment with regard to its adequacy and transparency in evaluating the scientific literature, use of appropriate methods to synthesize the current state-of-the science, and presentations of conclusions that are supported by the scientific evidence. The report concludes that the 2022 Draft Assessment follows the advice of prior National Academies reports and that its findings on hazard and quantitative risk are supported by the evidence identified. However, revisions are needed to ensure that users can find and follow the methods used in each step of the assessment for each health outcome.

The field of quantum information science (QIS) has witnessed a dramatic rise in scientific research activities in the 21st century as excitement has grown about its potential to revolutionize communications and computing, strengthen encryption, and enhance quantum sensing, among other applications. While, historically, QIS research has been dominated by the field of physics and computer engineering, this report explores how chemistry - in particular the use of molecular qubits - could advance QIS. In turn, researchers are also examining how QIS could be used to solve problems in chemistry, for example, to facilitate new drug and material designs, health and environmental monitoring tools, and more sustainable energy production. Recognizing that QIS could be a disruptive technology with the potential to create groundbreaking products and new industries, Advancing Chemistry and Quantum Information Science calls for U.S. leadership to build a robust enterprise to facilitate and support research at the intersection of chemistry and QIS. This report identifies three key research areas: design and synthesis of molecular qubit systems, measurement and control of molecular quantum systems, and experimental and computational approaches for scaling qubit design and function. Advancing Chemistry and Quantum Information Science recommends that the Department of Energy, National Science Foundation, and other funding agencies should support multidisciplinary and collaborative research in QIS, the development of new instrumentation, and facilities, centralized and open-access databases, and efforts to create a more diverse and inclusive chemical workforce.

Nonhuman primates represent a small fraction of animals used in biomedical research, but they remain important research models due to their similarities to humans with respect to genetic makeup, anatomy, physiology, and behavior. Limitations in the availability of nonhuman primates have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and recent restrictions on their exportation and transportation, impacting National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded research necessary for both public health and national security. Additionally, there is continued interest in understanding whether and how nonanimal models can be used to answer scientific questions for which nonhuman primates are currently used. At the direction of the U.S. Congress, NIH asked the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to convene an expert committee to conduct a landscape analysis of current and future use of nonhuman primates in NIH-supported biomedical research, as well as opportunities for new approach methodologies to complement or reduce reliance on nonhuman primate models. This report provides the committee findings and conclusions.

Carbon materials pervade many aspects of modern life, from fuels and building materials to consumer goods and commodity chemicals. Reaching net-zero emissions will require replacing existing fossil-carbon-based systems with circular-carbon economies that transform wastes like CO2 into useful materials. This report evaluates market opportunities and infrastructure needs to help decision makers better understand how carbon dioxide utilization can contribute to a net-zero emissions future.

The world confronts an existential challenge in responding to climate change, resulting in an urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors of the economy. What will it take for new and advanced nuclear reactors to play a role in decarbonization? Nuclear power provides a significant portion of the worlds low-carbon electricity, and advanced nuclear technologies have the potential to be smaller, safer, less expensive to build, and better integrated with the modern grid. However, if the United States wants advanced nuclear reactors to play a role in its plans for decarbonization, there are many key challenges that must be overcome at the technical, economic, and regulatory levels. Laying the Foundation for New and Advanced Nuclear Reactors in the United States discusses how the United States could support the successful commercialization of advanced nuclear reactors with a set of near-term policies and practices. The recommendations of this report address the need to close technology research gaps, explore new business use cases, improve project management and construction, update regulations and security requirements, prioritize community engagement, strengthen the skilled workforce, and develop competitive financing options.

The COVID-19 pandemic spurred a rapid expansion of wastewater-based infectious disease surveillance systems to monitor and anticipate disease trends in communities.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) launched the National Wastewater Surveillance System in September 2020 to help coordinate and build upon those efforts. Produced at the request of CDC, this report reviews the usefulness of community-level wastewater surveillance during the pandemic and assesses its potential value for control and prevention of infectious diseases beyond COVID-19. Wastewater-based Disease Surveillance for Public Health Action concludes that wastewater surveillance is and will continue to be a valuable component of infectious disease management. This report presents a vision for a national wastewater surveillance system that would track multiple pathogens simultaneously and pivot quickly to detect emerging pathogens, and it offers recommendations to ensure that the system is flexible, equitable, and economically sustainable for informing public health actions. The report also recommends approaches to address ethical and privacy concerns and develop a more representative wastewater surveillance system. Predictable and sustained federal funding as well as ongoing coordination and collaboration among many partners will be critical to the effectiveness of efforts moving forward.

After the Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989, advancing oil pollution research and technology to limit the environmental impacts of oil spills became a national and international priority. Congress responded by enacting the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 and forming the Interagency Coordinating Committee on Oil Pollution Research (ICCOPR) to coordinate research for preventing, planning for, responding to, and mitigating the effects of oil pollution on the environment. To achieve this end, ICCOPR published the oil pollution research and technology plan to guide research and funding priorities in 1992, with updates released over the years, most recently, the 2022-2027 Research and Technology Plan. This new report provides advice and guidance on the approach, structure, adequacy, and implementation of ICCOPR 2022-2027 Research and Technology Plan. Coordinated research efforts are necessary so knowledge and capacity related to oil spill prevention, preparedness, response, mitigation, and restoration can be advanced. Future updates of the plan should utilize a more streamlined, transparent, and community-driven development process including development of an oil pollution research dashboard and inclusion of metrics to assess and communicate progress on oil pollution research priorities. ICCOPR should also initiate processes to allow for open-water field trials when appropriate. The report recommendations were developed to assist ICCOPR with developing a Research and Technology Plan that can be widely used to promote progress, coordination, and collaboration on priority oil pollution research needs within the United States and globally - research needs that are important for improving knowledge, capacity, and regulations to safeguard the environment.

Since its establishment in 1970, the mission of the Environmental Protection Agency is to protect human health and the environment. EPA develops regulations, ensures compliance, and issues policies, in coordination with state, tribal, and local governments. To accomplish its mission, EPA should be equipped to produce and access the highest quality and most advanced science. The Office of Research and Development (ORD) provides the scientific bases for regulatory and public health policies that have broad impacts on the nation's natural resources and quality of human life, and that yield economic benefits and incur compliance costs for the regulated community. In addition, ORD develops the agency core research capabilities, providing tools and methods for meeting current and anticipating future environmental challenges, such as the risks to health and the environment posed by climate change. Because challenges associated with environmental protection today are complex and affected by many interacting factors, the report points to the need for a substantially broader and better integrated approach to environmental protection. This report calls for EPA ORD to pursue all of its scientific aims in a new framework—to apply systems thinking to a One Environment? One Health approach in all aspects of ORD work. To accomplish this, the report provides actionable recommendations on how ORD might consider incorporating emerging science and systems thinking into the agency research planning, so that ORD can become an increasingly impactful organization. The report identifies a number of high-priority recommendations for ORD to pursue in taking advantage of a broad range of advanced tools, in concert with collaborators in other federal agencies and the broader scientific community. Given the resource constraints, the report recognizes that ORD will have to make decisions about priorities for implementing its recommendations, and that ORD leadership is in the best position to set those priorities as implementation begins. The report concluded by stating that shifting to a systems-thinking approach will require renewed support from science leadership, enhanced strategic planning, investment in new and broader expertise and tools, and a reimagined and inclusive commitment to communication and collaboration.

The Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism was established and managed by the National Academies of Sciences, Medicine, and Engineering in response to a congressional mandate to independently explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the public, abbreviated version of the classified report.

The predominant way of making steel in the United Sates is by using an electric arc furnace (EAF) to melt scrap steel, which results in the formation of a rock-like material called slag. Among its various applications, EAF slag is used in a loose or unencapsulated form as ground cover material for residential landscaping. However, the slag generated from the EAF process can contain toxic metals, which can be hazardous to human and environmental health. This report, conducted at the request of the U.S. EPA, discusses the relative hazard of key EAF slag constituents, the extent to which they may be released into the environment, and important aspects in assessing human exposures and risk. Due to uncertainties in the current evidence stream, the report was unable to make an overall characterization of risk related to unencapsulated EAF slag use in the United States and cautions against making generalizations from conclusions in published risk assessments. The report also identifies research needs to better understand factors considered to have the potential to contribute to the highest risks from the use of unencapsulated EAF slag, such as human exposure to dust particles that may be released over time from applied slag.

The Antarctic's unique environment and position on the globe make it a prime location to gain insights into how Earth and the universe operate. This report assesses National Science Foundation (NSF) progress in addressing three priority research areas identified in a 2015 National Academies report: (1) understanding the linkages between ice sheets and sea-level rise, including both a focus on current rates of ice sheet change and studies of past major ice sheet retreat episodes; (2) understanding biological adaptations to the extreme and changing Antarctic environment; and (3) establishing a next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) program, partly located in Antarctica, to study the origins of the universe. NSF has made important progress understanding the impacts of current ice sheet change, particularly through studies focused on the ice sheet and ocean interactions driving ongoing ice mass loss at the Thwaites Glacier and Amundsen Sea region in West Antarctica. Less progress has been made on studies of past major ice sheet retreat episodes. Progress is also strong on CMB research to understand the origins of the universe. Progress has lagged on understanding biological adaptations, in part because of limited community organization and collaboration toward the priority. To accelerate progress during the second half of the initiative, NSF could issue specific calls for proposals, develop strategies to foster collaborations and partnerships, and commission a transparent review of logistical capacity to help illuminate strategies and priorities for addressing resource constraints. Such efforts would also help optimize science and proposal development in an environment of inherently constrained logistics.

The Hanford Nuclear Reservation, where about two-thirds of the nation's weapons plutonium was produced from 1944 to 1987, is the site of the largest and most complex nuclear cleanup challenge in the United States. Section 3125 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 calls for a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) to develop a framework of decisions to be made among the supplemental treatment technologies, waste forms, and disposal locations for low-activity waste in the Hanford tanks. In addition, Section 3125 calls for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide a concurrent, independent peer review of the ongoing FFRDC analysis. This review report, the first of three to address the Congressional mandate, focuses on the technical quality and completeness of the FFRDC's draft framework.