1. Why do crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections? A comprehensive analysis based on eight barley crop models
- Author
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Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Frank Ewert, Carlos Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona, Pierre Martre, Fulu Tao, Tapio Salo, Camilla Dibari, Xenia Specka, Lucía Rodríguez, Roberto Ferrise, Amit Kumar Srivastava, G. Padovan, Taru Palosuo, Davide Cammarano, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, M. Ines Minguez, Alan H. Schulman, Mikhail A. Semenov, Thomas Gaiser, Claas Nendel, Reimund P. Rötter, Jukka Höhn, Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS), Institute of Biotechnology, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Rothamsted Research, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Department of Agronomy, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Crop Science Group, INRES, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Helsinki, FACCE-MACSUR knowledge hub (031A103B), Academy of Finland through projects AI-CropPro (decision no. 316172), DivCSA (decision no. 316215), Natural Resources Institute Finland through strategic projects ClimSmartAgri and Boost-IA, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, ‘Limpopo Living Landscapes’ project within the SPACES program (grant number 01LL1304A), IMPAC^3 project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (FKZ 031A351A), MULCLIVAR CGL2012-38923-C02-02 from MINECO and by MACSUR01-UPM from INIA within FACCE-JPI, German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), (2851ERA01J), German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), 031B0039C, FACCE-MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogramme on Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), FACCE-JPI project ClimBar (Academy of Finland decision 284987), JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food, and Forestry Policies, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat project (BB/P016855/1)., European Project: 613556,EC:FP7:KBBE,FP7-KBBE-2013-7-single-stage,WHEALBI(2014), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), and Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Mediterranean climate ,Atmospheric Science ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,AIR CO2 ENRICHMENT ,Climate change ,Crop growth simulation ,Agricultural engineering ,SIMULATION-MODELS ,01 natural sciences ,NITROGEN DYNAMICS ,Evapotranspiration ,[SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology ,Precipitation ,ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ,FIELD EXPERIMENT ,TEMPERATURE ,1172 Environmental sciences ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,2. Zero hunger ,Global and Planetary Change ,Biomass (ecology) ,RICE PHENOLOGY ,WHEAT GROWTH ,Crop growth stimulation ,business.industry ,Model improvement ,Global warming ,Uncertainty ,Forestry ,Agriculture ,15. Life on land ,11831 Plant biology ,[INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation ,Impact ,Boreal ,13. Climate action ,415 Other agricultural sciences ,Environmental science ,business ,ELEVATED CO2 ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,010606 plant biology & botany - Abstract
International audience; Robust projections of climate impact on crop growth and productivity by crop models are key to designing effective adaptations to cope with future climate risk. However, current crop models diverge strongly in their climate impact projections. Previous studies tried to compare or improve crop models regarding the impact of one single climate variable. However, this approach is insufficient, considering that crop growth and yield are affected by the interactive impacts of multiple climate change factors and multiple interrelated biophysical processes. Here, a new comprehensive analysis was conducted to look holistically at the reasons why crop models diverge substantially in climate impact projections and to investigate which biophysical processes and knowledge gaps are key factors affecting this uncertainty and should be given the highest priorities for improvement. First, eight barley models and eight climate projections for the 2050s were applied to investigate the uncertainty from crop model structure in climate impact projections for barley growth and yield at two sites: Jokioinen, Finland (Boreal) and Lleida, Spain (Mediterranean). Sensitivity analyses were then conducted on the responses of major crop processes to major climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, irradiation, and CO2, as well as their interactions, for each of the eight crop models. The results showed that the temperature and CO2 relationships in the models were the major sources of the large discrepancies among the models in climate impact projections. In particular, the impacts of increases in temperature and CO2 on leaf area development were identified as the major causes for the large uncertainty in simulating changes in evapotranspiration, above-ground biomass, and grain yield. Our findings highlight that advancements in understanding the basic processes and thresholds by which climate warming and CO2 increases will affect leaf area development, crop evapotranspiration, photosynthesis, and grain formation in contrasting environments are needed for modeling their impacts.
- Published
- 2020
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