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The Western Balkan region has significantly improved in terms of innovation performance in the last ten years. However, in catching up with other European regions, the focus of innovation efforts should be enhanced. Exports are still far more focused on medium- and low-technology products. Innovative efforts mostly accommodate traditionally strong sectors, which do not necessarily reflect the ideal competitiveness paths for economies in the region. Although some Western Balkan economies record increases in patent activity, patent intensity in the region is still low, while, on the other hand, scientific publication production displays a stable growth trend. While Western Balkan economies are at different stages in the formation of research and innovation (R&I) policy governance systems, national research and innovation policy frameworks are continuously being improved. The enhancement of governance in the area of R&I came as the result of increased capacity building activities in the region, as well as of the real needs emerging as a result of social and economic transformation. On the other hand, R&I systems in the Western Balkan economies need to continue shifting their focus towards businesses to provide better balance between public and private sector orientation. The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission is committed to supporting the shift in innovation policies and improvement of R&I efforts and governance in the Western Balkan economies through a number of tools and activities, allowing policy instruments to be matched with the specific needs of the economy. This approach seeks efficient governance mechanisms for R&I policy by reaching out to the business sector and other important actors of the innovation ecosystem. It determines sustainable development directions for economies and ensures the continuity of policy monitoring and evaluation cycles. This ambitious challenge is translated into four specific lines of activity: (i) the application of the smart specialisation methodology to design and implement innovation strategies; (ii) capacity-building activities for technology transfer, in particular through specialised workshops, tools and instruments specifically designed to assist the academic institutions in the regional economies; (iii) support to transnational collaboration and linkages in the context of EU macro-regional strategies; and (iv) data quality enhancement. The analysis of the development potential of the Western Balkan region in terms of economic, innovative and scientific capabilities in this report is supported with the good practices addressing specific challenges in the region., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

In this paper we provide the mathematical presentation of the RHOMOLO model. In addition, we perform some stylized and illustrative simulations with the aim to make the reader familiar with the economic adjustment mechanisms incorporated into the model. Essentially, we attempt to offer the reader and the potential users of the model an intuition of the transmission channels existing in the current version RHOMOLO. The analysis is kept simple to facilitate a better understanding of the model's findings. We simulate a permanent demand-side shock implemented separately for each of the 267 regions contained in the model. We repeat the same simulation under three alternative labour market closures and three different imperfectly competitive product market structures., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

The purpose of this technical paper is to illustrate a computationally cheap approach of conducting the multivariate sensitivity analysis with a very large and complex non-linear model RHOMOLO. We evaluated model responses to the different combinations of the following input data a) elasticity parameters that define behavioural responses of RHOMOLO b) labour- and total factor productivity parameters that characterize technology and c) scenario perturbations that represent policy decisions with regard to fiscal transfers. Such selection of scenario perturbations is of particular importance in the context of the EU Cohesion policies that are evaluated with RHOMOLO: in accordance with a number of objectives, fiscal contributions enter the model being translated into the factor productivity shocks. In order to bypass the dimensionality curse we resorted to the deterministic approach, assigning three levels to each input parameter and implemented the exercise in two steps: One-at-a-time variation of fifteen elasticity parameters for the different combinations of three scenario shocks permitted to attribute the highest influence ranking to the elasticities that define possibilities of substitution between labour and capital, among the domestic and imported goods and to the wage curve elasticity. For the influence ranking we employed the standard elasticity index and the Hoffman&Gardner sensitivity index. All-at-a-time variation of the most influential elasticity parameters and scenario shocks demonstrated that the total factor productivity and labour productivity shocks are the main drivers of model results, showing strong individual and weak interaction effects. Quantification of the individual and interaction effects of multivariate scenario perturbations was based on a three-level factorial design approach. We developed the algorithms for the parallel execution of the multiple instances of RHOMOLO that permit all computations to be finished in five hours. Our approach can be applied to virtually any static or dynamic model that is programmed in GAMS requiring minor modifications in the model code. With a pedagogical purpose we provide the detailed explanations of algorithms and the full listings of computer codes that were developed to implement this multivariate sensitivity analysis exercise. The comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the individual and interactions effects allows prioritize the econometric estimations of the most influential parameters, thus increasing precision of policy impact assessment., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

In this note we present the economic impact assessment of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) for thematic objectives TO1 "Research and innovation" and TO4 "Low-carbon economy" in the region of Apulia, Italy. The results are based on the RHOMOLO-IO demand multiplier analysis and on computer simulations with the multi-regional dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model RHOMOLO. The former approach is used to calculate the sector-specific output multipliers following a demand-side shock, while the CGE simulations provide evidence of significant spillover effects spreading beyond the Apulian borders and stimulating economic growth in other regions with significant trade links with Apulia. Our results suggest that a €536 million increase in demand for the Manufacturing & Construction sector would entail an increase in total value added of €329 million, which is roughly 0.46% of the regional GDP. The RHOMOLO simulations show that the effects of policy interventions reach their peak in the last years of ERDF programming period (2020-2022), when the absorption of investment funding is at its full potential. In 2022, T01 and T04 investments of the ERDF increase Apulian by 0.2% above the baseline GDP projections. Given the high import intensity of the region, only one fourth of the overall effect is driven by the direct investments and three fourths depend on the productivity improvements achieved as a result of the specific policy design. This demonstrates that the implementation of policies that are effective in raising productivity ensures long term economic benefits even in the absence of continuous funding.

This report presents the current version of the European Commission's spatial computable general equilibrium model RHOMOLO, developed by the Directorate-General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) in collaboration with the Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy (DG REGIO) to undertake the ex-ante impact assessment of EU policies and structural reforms. The RHOMOLO model has been used with DG REGIO for the impact assessment of Cohesion Policy, and with the European Investment Bank for impact assessment of EU investment support policies. The structure of the model departs from standard computable general equilibrium models in several dimensions. First, it generalises the modelling of market interactions by introducing imperfect competition in products and labour markets. Second, it exploits the advantages of a full asymmetric bilateral trade cost matrix for all EU regions to capture a rich set of spatial market interactions and regional features. Third, it acknowledges the importance of space also for non-market interactions through an inter-regional knowledge spill-over mechanism originating from research and development activities within a country. This report describes the theoretical foundation of RHOMOLO-v2 (v2 = version 2), its mathematical structure, dynamics, data sources and calibration to allow the reader to approach the model and its outputs with a higher degree of awareness of its strength and limitations. Indeed, as for any general equilibrium model with a reasonable level of complexity, in RHOMOLO it is often challenging to track the mechanisms at work after a policy shock and clearly disentangle causes and effects because of the high number of channels of adjustment and the presence of many feedback effects. The purpose of this documentation is thus to provide a compass to the reader to sail safely through its many equations, assumptions and connections., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

This manual explains how to practically use the RHOMOLO model for policy impact assessment. We explain here how to read its modular structure, to retrieve its database and provide a step-by step guide to perform simulations using either its GAMS-IDE interface (for expert users) or a user-friendly graphical web-interface., JRC.J.2-Knowledge for Growth