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Abstract Social connections among individuals are essential components of social‐ecological systems (SESs), enabling people to take actions to more effectively adapt or transform in response to widespread social‐ecological change. Although scholars have associated social connections and cognitions with adaptive capacity, measuring actors' social networks may further clarify pathways for bolstering resilience‐enhancing actions. We asked how social networks and socio‐cognitions, as components of adaptive capacity, and SES regime shift severity affect individual landscape management behaviours using a quantitative analysis of ego network survey data from livestock producers and landcover data on regime shift severity (i.e. juniper encroachment) in the North American Great Plains. Producers who experienced severe regime shifts or perceived high risks from such shifts were not more likely to engage in transformative behaviour like prescribed burning. Instead, we found that social network characteristics explained significant variance in transformative behaviours. Policy implications: Our results indicate that social networks enable behaviours that have the potential to transform SESs, suggesting possible leverage points for enabling capacity and coordination toward sustainability. Particularly where private lands dominate and cultural practices condition regime shifts, clarifying how social connections promote resilience may provide much needed insight to bolster adaptive capacities in the face of global change. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Conservation is increasingly focused on preventing losses in species’ populations before they occur. Tracking changes in demographic parameters that can impact a population’s resilience in response to drivers of global change can support early conservation efforts. We assessed trends in population productivity (late summer juveniles per 100 females) relative to drivers of global change in 40 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) herds across sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe in Wyoming. Pronghorn are an iconic rangeland species that have been exposed to increasing levels of anthropogenic, climatic, and land-use change. Using data collected across the state of Wyoming, we (1) assessed long-term trends in population productivity, (2) identified patterns in large-scale drivers of global change (i.e., climate, land cover change) across pronghorn habitat, and (3) determined the relationship between drivers of global change and population productivity over a 35-year (1984–2019) period. While Wyoming hosts some of the most abundant populations of pronghorn in North America that have been largely stable in recent years, we found many herds are experiencing long-term declines in productivity. Long-term declines in productivity were associated with increases in oil and gas development and woody encroachment. Although increasing across almost all herd units, woody vegetation cover remains at low levels, suggesting that pre-emptive management may help to prevent losses in pronghorn populations.

In agroecosystems, bats can provide a critical ecosystem service by consuming night-flying insect pests. However, many bats also face intense population pressures from human landscape modification, global change and novel diseases. To better understand the behavioral activity of different bat species with respect to space, time, habitat, and other bat species in this environment, we investigated species correlations in space and time over row crop agricultural fields. We used acoustic grids to document spatial and temporal co-occurrence or avoidance between bats and recorded eight species across the 10 field sites we sampled. All species significantly overlapped in two-dimensional space and displayed considerable temporal overlap during the night, yet often exhibited significantly different temporal activity patterns, suggesting fine scale partitioning behavior. Conversion of land to agriculture is likely to increase globally, making it critical to better understand how bat species interact with one another and the landscape to facilitate persistence in these human altered ecosystems.

Woody encroachment is one of the greatest threats to grasslands globally, depleting a suite of ecosystem services, including forage production and grassland biodiversity. Recent evidence also suggests that woody encroachment increases wildfire danger, particularly in the Great Plains of North America, where highly volatile Juniperus spp. convert grasslands to an alternative woodland state. Spot-fire distances are a critical component of wildfire danger, describing the distance over which embers from one fire can cause a new fire ignition, potentially far away from fire suppression personnel. We assess changes in spot-fire distances as grasslands experience Juniperus encroachment to an alternative woodland state and how spot-fire distances differ under typical prescribed fire conditions compared to conditions observed during wildfire. We use BehavePlus to calculate spot-fire distances for these scenarios within the Loess Canyons Experimental Landscape, Nebraska, U.S.A., a 73,000-ha ecoregion where private-lands fire management is used to reduce woody encroachment and prevent further expansion of Juniperus fuels. We found prescribed fire used to control woody encroachment had lower maximum spot-fire distances compared to wildfires and, correspondingly, a lower amount of land area at risk to spot-fire occurrence. Under more extreme wildfire scenarios, spot-fire distances were 2 times higher in grasslands, and over 3 times higher in encroached grasslands and Juniperus woodlands compared to fires burned under prescribed fire conditions. Maximum spot-fire distance was 450% greater in Juniperus woodlands compared to grasslands and exposed an additional 14,000 ha of receptive fuels, on average, to spot-fire occurrence within the Loess Canyons Experimental Landscape. This study demonstrates that woody encroachment drastically increases risks associated with wildfire, and that spot fire distances associated with woody encroachment are much lower in prescribed fires used to control woody encroachment compared to wildfires.

Abstract Quantifying resource selection (an organism's disproportionate use of available resources) is essential to infer habitat requirements of a species, develop management recommendations, predict species responses to changing conditions, and improve our understanding of the processes that underlie ecological patterns. Because study sites, even within the same region, can differ in both the amount and the arrangement of cover types, our objective was to determine whether proximal sites can yield markedly different resource selection results for a generalist bird, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus). We used 5 years of telemetry locations and newly developed land cover data at two, geographically distinct but relatively close sites in the south‐central semi‐arid prairies of North America. We fit a series of generalized linear mixed models and used an information‐theoretic model comparison approach to identify and compare resource selection patterns at each site. We determined that the importance of different cover types to northern bobwhite is site‐dependent on relatively similar and nearby sites. Specifically, whether bobwhite selected for shrub cover and whether they strongly avoided trees, depended on the study site in focus. Additionally, the spatial scale of selection was nearly an order of magnitude different between the cover types. Our study demonstrates that—even for one of the most intensively studied species in the world—we may oversimplify resource selection by using a single study site approach. Managing the trade‐offs between practical, generalized conclusions and precise but complex conclusions is one of the central challenges in applied ecology. However, we caution against setting recommendations for broad extents based on information gathered at small extents, even for a generalist species at adjacent sites. Before extrapolating information to areas beyond the data collected, managers should account for local differences in the availability, arrangement, and scaling of resources.

Abstract Solutions to global problems such as climate change and biodiversity loss require educational frameworks and accompanying teaching resources that are theory‐based, interdisciplinary, and accessible to broad undergraduate and graduate student audiences. Ecological resilience theory (ERT) is a framework with established interdisciplinary application to complex global problems, but despite an emphasis on the utility of resilience in national higher education frameworks, we found that many current ecology textbooks incorporate multiple definitions and highly variable amounts of discussion on core resilience concepts. To facilitate the use of innovative teaching resources in ERT in universities, this paper describes four free multimedia tools and templates that align with national education frameworks and are available for innovation and development by educators interested in ERT. The products are (1) content modules on core terms and concepts of ERT, (2) a classroom game and discussion, (3) interactive case studies, and (4) a complementary podcast based on resilience concepts and interviews with resilience experts to supplement formal classroom education. We contextualize the opportunities of ERT and thinking for students in university classrooms, as well as the benefits of involving graduate students and encouraging their initiative with this type of project. We conclude with a brief discussion of future opportunities for these types of educational resources. Our intent is that these resources be available for educators and researchers to facilitate interdisciplinarity, collaboration, and innovation to address complex global problems from a core educational framework of ERT.

Abstract Increasingly, land managers have attempted to use extreme prescribed fire as a method to address woody plant encroachment in savanna ecosystems. The effect that these fires have on herbaceous vegetation is poorly understood. We experimentally examined immediate (

Abstract Increasing wildfire activity has spurred ecological resilience‐based management that aims to reduce the vulnerability of forest stands to wildfire by reducing the probability of crown fire. Targeted grazing is increasingly being used to build forest resilience to wildfire, either on its own or in combination with treatments such as mechanical thinning; however, it is unclear how effective this method is at altering the probability of crown fire in forest stands. We use crown fire simulation models to quantify to what extent targeted grazing, mechanical thinning targeting the vertical fuel stratum, and a combination of both treatments alter eastern ponderosa pine savanna stand resilience to wildfire by modeling their relative impacts on the fuel stratum gap and subsequent crown fire occurrence under six different wildfire risk scenarios generated by altering wind and fuel moisture conditions. We then model changes in the probability of crown fire occurrence resulting from treatments across 75 field‐sampled sites in the Pine Ridge region of Nebraska relative to predicted crown fire occurrence when sites are left untreated. We find that mechanical (vertical) thinning has the potential to alter the probability of crown fire in ponderosa pine stands to a much greater extent than targeted grazing. Combining both approaches had a slightly higher probability of reducing crown fire risk across the greatest range of wildfire risk scenarios. Across 75 sample sites, targeted grazing was only predicted to prevent crown fire occurrence at two sites expected to experience crown fire under observed stand conditions across all six of our wildfire risk scenarios. In contrast, targeted grazing combined with mechanical thinning was predicted to prevent crown fire at approximately half of the sites expected to experience crown fire under observed conditions for mild and moderate wildfire risk scenarios. Thus, targeted grazing should be combined with mechanical thinning to best enhance forest resilience to wildfire. No combination of targeted grazing or mechanical thinning was able to alter the probability of crown fire under wildfire risk scenarios most conducive to wildfire, confirming that relying solely on vertical thinning and targeted grazing is unlikely to sufficiently enhance resilience of forest stands to future wildfire conditions.

Human activity causes biome shifts that alter biodiversity and spatial resilience patterns. Rare species, often considered vulnerable to change and endangered, can be a critical element of resilience by providing adaptive capacity in response to disturbances. However, little is known about changes in rarity patterns of communities once a biome transitions into a novel spatial regime. We used time series modeling to identify rare avian species in an expanding terrestrial (southern) spatial regime in the North American Great Plains and another (northern) regime that will become encroached by the southern regime in the near future. In this time-explicit approach, presumably rare species show stochastic dynamics in relative abundance – this is because they occur only rarely throughout the study period, may largely be absent but show occasional abundance peaks or show a combination of these patterns. We specifically assessed how stochastic/rare species of the northern spatial regime influence aspects of ecological resilience once it has been encroached by the southern regime. Using 47 years (1968–2014) of breeding bird survey data and a space-for-time substitution, we found that the overall contribution of stochastic/rare species to the avian community of the southern regime was low. Also, none of these species were of conservation concern, suggesting limited need for revised species conservation action in the novel spatial regime. From a systemic perspective, our results preliminarily suggest that stochastic/rare species only marginally contribute to resilience in a new spatial regime after fundamental ecological changes have occurred.

Abstract Grasslands are the most threatened and least protected biome. Yet, no study has been conducted to identify the last remaining continuous grasslands on Earth. Here, we used World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classifications to measure the degree of intactness remaining for the world's grassland ecoregions. This analysis revealed three findings of critical conservation importance. First, only a few large, intact grasslands remain. Second, every continent with a grassland ecoregion considered in this study contains at least one relatively intact grassland ecoregion. Third, the largest remaining continuous grasslands identified in this analysis have persisted despite last centuries anthropogenic pressures and have the best chance to withstand 21st century pressures of global change. We discuss how these regions are of critical conservation importance to global grassland conservation efforts under anthropogenically driven global change. They provide essential ecosystem services, play an important role in mitigating the effects of climate change, serve as critical repositories for grassland biodiversity, are foundational for continental migration pathways, hold unique cultural heritage, and people's livelihoods depend upon their persistence.

Spatial regimes (the spatial extents of ecological states) exhibit strong spatiotemporal order as they expand or contract in response to retreating or encroaching adjacent spatial regimes (e.g., woody plant invasion of grasslands) and human management (e.g., fire treatments). New methods enable tracking spatial regime boundaries via vegetation landcover data, and this approach is being used for strategic management across biomes. A clear advancement would be incorporating animal community data to track spatial regime boundaries alongside vegetation data. In a 41,170-hectare grassland experiencing woody plant encroachment, we test the utility of using animal community data to track spatial regimes via two hypotheses. (H1) Spatial regime boundaries identified via independent vegetation and animal datasets will exhibit spatial synchrony; specifically, grassland:woodland bird community boundaries will synchronize with grass:woody vegetation boundaries. (H2) Negative feedbacks will stabilize spatial regimes identified via animal data; specifically, frequent fire treatments will stabilize grassland bird community boundaries. We used 26 years of bird community and vegetation data alongside 32 years of fire history data. We identified spatial regime boundaries with bird community data via a wombling approach. We identified spatial regime boundaries with vegetation data by calculating spatial covariance between remotely-sensed grass and woody plant cover per pixel. For fire history data, we calculated the cumulative number of fires per pixel. Setting bird boundary strength (wombling R2 values) as the response variable, we tested our hypotheses with a hierarchical generalized additive model (HGAM). Both hypotheses were supported: animal boundaries synchronized with vegetation boundaries in space and time, and grassland bird communities stabilized as fire frequency increased (HGAM explained 38% of deviance). We can now track spatial regimes via animal community data pixel-by-pixel and year-by-year. Alongside vegetation boundary tracking, tracking animal community boundaries can inform the scale of management necessary to maintain animal communities endemic to desirable ecological states. Our approach will be especially useful for conserving animal communities requiring large-scale, unfragmented landscapes—like grasslands and steppes.

Abstract Of all terrestrial biomes, grasslands are losing the most biodiversity the most rapidly, so there is a critical need to document and learn from large‐scale restoration successes. In the Loess Canyons ecoregion of the Great Plains, USA, an association of private ranchers and natural resource agencies has led a multi‐decadal, ecoregion‐scale initiative to combat the loss of grasslands to woody plant encroachment by restoring large‐scale fire regimes. Here, we use 14 years of fire treatment history with 6 years of grassland bird monitoring and remotely sensed tree cover data across 136,767 ha of privately owned grassland to quantify outcomes of large‐scale grassland restoration efforts. Grassland bird richness increased across 65% (90,032 ha) of the Loess Canyons, and woody plant cover decreased up to 55% across 25% (7408 ha) of all fire‐treated areas. This was accomplished with extreme fire treatments that killed mature trees, were large (mean annual area burned was 3100 ha), spatially clustered and straddled boundaries between invasive woodlands and remaining grasslands – not heavily infested woodlands. Findings from this study provide the first evidence of human management reversing the impacts of woody encroachment on grassland birds at an ecoregion scale.

Bats provide a number of ecosystem services in agricultural areas, including the predation of night-flying insects, for which they are estimated to save agricultural industries billions of dollars per year. Intensive agriculture has many negative effects on biodiversity, and it is important to understand how wildlife exploit available habitats to allow persistence in these human-modified landscapes. To better evaluate the effectiveness of bats’ pest-controlling services, and to increase understanding of bat foraging behavior in these historically open grassland landscapes, we estimated bat activity and insect abundance in and around crop fields in southeast Nebraska, USA. Specifically, we used a novel acoustic grid sampling approach to document and visualize spatiotemporal activity patterns by different bat species over agricultural fields and forested habitat along crop field edges. Bat activity was highest in areas with the most forested edge habitat, and sites with more trees and water typically had more species present. Bat species and activity was low in isolated forest fragments and sites with minimal habitat edges, but overall insect volume did not decline away from field edges, suggesting that ecosystem services provided by bats likely diminish not because of a decline in resource availability, but because of the lack of structure. Woodland interfaces are important habitats for bats, and the invasion of grasslands by woody species in the Great Plains has increased available bat habitat, and therefore services provided by bats, but with a cost to grasslands and the ecological services they provide. However, although bats are clearly important insect predators that benefit agricultural activities, our ability to quantify the ecosystem services they provide will be greatly improved with a more nuanced understanding of how their activity varies relative to habitat structure and scale within the landscapes where these services are required.

Abstract Wildfires are ecosystem‐level drivers of structure and function in many vegetated biomes. While numerous studies have emphasized the benefits of fire to ecosystems, large wildfires have also been associated with the loss of ecosystem services and shifts in vegetation abundance. The size and number of wildfires are increasing across a number of regions, and yet the outcomes of large wildfire on vegetation at large‐scales are still largely unknown. We introduce an exhaustive analysis of wildfire‐scale vegetation response to large wildfires across North America's grassland biome. We use 18 years of a newly released vegetation data set combined with 1,390 geospatial wildfire perimeters and drought data to detect large‐scale vegetation response among multiple vegetation functional groups. We found no evidence of persistent declines in vegetation driven by wildfire at the biome level. All vegetation functional groups exhibited relatively rapid recovery to pre wildfire ranges of variation across the Great Plains ecoregions, with the exception being a persistent decrease in the abundance of trees in the Northwestern Great Plains. Drought intensity magnified immediate vegetation response to wildfire. Persistent declines in vegetation cover were observed at the scale of single pixels (30 m), suggesting that these responses were localized and represent extreme cases within larger wildfires. Our findings echo over a century of research demonstrating a biome resilient to wildfire.

The reduction and simplification of grasslands has led to the decline of numerous species of grassland fauna, particularly grassland-obligate birds. Prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus spp.) are an example of obligate grassland birds that have declined throughout most of their distribution and are species of conservation concern. Pyric herbivory has been suggested as a land management strategy for enhancing prairie-chicken habitat and stabilizing declining population trends. We assessed differences in vegetation structure created by pyric herbivory compared to fire-only treatments to determine whether pyric herbivory increased habitat heterogeneity for prairie-chickens, spatially or temporally. Our study was performed at four sites in the southern Great Plains, all within the current or historic distribution of either lesser (T. pallidicinctus), greater (T. cupido), or Attwater's (T. cupido attwateri) prairie-chickens. Key vegetation characteristics of grass cover and vegetation height in pyric herbivory and fire-only treatments were within the recommended range of values for prairie-chickens during their distinct life history stages. However, patches managed via pyric herbivory provided approximately 5% more forb cover than fire-only treatments for almost 30 months post-fire. Additionally, pyric herbivory extended the length of time bare ground was present after fires. Pyric herbivory also reduced vegetation height and biomass, with mean vegetation height in pyric herbivory treatments lagging behind fire-only treatments by approximately 15 months. Canopy cover in fire-only treatments exceeded levels recommended for prairie-chicken young within 12 months post-fire. However, canopy cover in pyric herbivory treatments never exceeded the maximum recommended levels. Overall, it appears that pyric herbivory improves vegetation characteristics reported as critical to prairie-chicken reproduction. Based on our results, we suggest pyric herbivory as a viable management technique to promote prairie-chicken habitat in the southern Great Plains, while still accommodating livestock production.

The concept of adaptive capacity has received significant attention within social-ecological and environmental change research. Within both the resilience and vulnerability literatures specifically, adaptive capacity has emerged as a fundamental concept for assessing the ability of social-ecological systems to adapt to environmental change. Although methods and indicators used to evaluate adaptive capacity are broad, the focus of existing scholarship has predominately been at the individual- and household- levels. However, the capacities necessary for humans to adapt to global environmental change are often a function of individual and societal characteristics, as well as cumulative and emergent capacities across communities and jurisdictions. In this paper, we apply a systematic literature review and co-citation analysis to investigate empirical research on adaptive capacity that focus on societal levels beyond the household. Our review demonstrates that assessments of adaptive capacity at higher societal levels are increasing in frequency, yet vary widely in approach, framing, and results; analyses focus on adaptive capacity at many different levels (e.g. community, municipality, global region), geographic locations, and cover multiple types of disturbances and their impacts across sectors. We also found that there are considerable challenges with regard to the ‘fit’ between data collected and analytical methods used in adequately capturing the cross-scale and cross-level determinants of adaptive capacity. Current approaches to assessing adaptive capacity at societal levels beyond the household tend to simply aggregate individual- or household-level data, which we argue oversimplifies and ignores the inherent interactions within and across societal levels of decision-making that shape the capacity of humans to adapt to environmental change across multiple scales. In order for future adaptive capacity research to be more practice-oriented and effectively guide policy, there is a need to develop indicators and assessments that are matched with the levels of potential policy applications.

The identity of an ecological regime is central to modern resilience theory and our understanding of how systems collapse and reorganize following disturbance. However, resilience-based models used in ecosystem management have been criticized for their failure to integrate disturbance outcomes into regime identity. Assessments are needed to understand how well these classifications represent ecosystem responses that occur over management relevant time scales. We tracked post-wildfire forest and grassland dynamics 27 years after wildfire in eastern ponderosa pine savanna. We tested for differences between the assigned identity of a site (forest or grassland) versus classifications based on the site's disturbance history (burned/unburned and fire severity). Under current ecosystem models used to manage these forest-grassland ecotones, forests that experience high severity fire are expected to resemble an unburned grassland following fire, while forests and grasslands that experience low severity fire are expected to resemble unburned forests and grasslands, respectively. Twenty-seven years after wildfire, burned forests and grasslands displayed a high degree of departure from their expected regime identity. Plant and bird communities deviated significantly on sites that experienced low severity fire from undisturbed sites classified under the same ecological regime (grassland or forest). Forest sites that experienced high severity fire were the most unique of all disturbance history classes. Our results demonstrate that structures and communities predicted under resilience-based models used for eastern ponderosa pine management do not emerge over management relevant time scales following disturbance. Over 20% of variation in ecological structures and communities was explained by a single, 27-year-old disturbance. Integrating disturbance legacies will help improve applied models of ecosystem dynamics.

Screening is a strategy for detecting undesirable change prior to manifestation of symptoms or adverse effects. Although the well-recognized utility of screening makes it commonplace in medicine, it has yet to be implemented in ecosystem management. Ecosystem management is in an era of diagnosis and treatment of undesirable change, and as a result, remains more reactive than proactive and unable to effectively deal with today's plethora of non-stationary conditions. In this paper, we introduce spatial imaging-based screening to ecology. We link advancements in spatial resilience theory, data, and technological and computational capabilities and power to detect regime shifts (i.e., vegetation state transitions) that are known to be detrimental to human well-being and ecosystem service delivery. With a state-of-the-art landcover dataset and freely available, cloud-based, geospatial computing platform, we screen for spatial signals of the three most iconic vegetation transitions studied in western USA rangelands: (1) erosion and desertification; (2) woody encroachment; and (3) annual exotic grass invasion. For a series of locations that differ in ecological complexity and geographic extent, we answer the following questions: (1) Which regime shift is expected or of greatest concern? (2) Can we detect a signal associated with the expected regime shift? (3) If detected, is the signal transient or persistent over time? (4) If detected and persistent, is the transition signal stationary or non-stationary over time? (5) What other signals do we detect? Our approach reveals a powerful and flexible methodology, whereby professionals can use spatial imaging to verify the occurrence of alternative vegetation regimes, image the spatial boundaries separating regimes, track the magnitude and direction of regime shift signals, differentiate persistent and stationary transition signals that warrant continued screening from more concerning persistent and non-stationary transition signals, and leverage disciplinary strength and resources for more targeted diagnostic testing (e.g., inventory and monitoring) and treatment (e.g., management) of regime shifts. While the rapid screening approach used here can continue to be implemented and refined for rangelands, it has broader implications and can be adapted to other ecological systems to revolutionize the information space needed to better manage critical transitions in nature.

Heterogeneity has emerged as a fundamental principle for grassland management and the importance of environmental heterogeneity for biological diversity has raised questions about the appropriateness of grassland practices that seek to promote uniform grassland structure and composition. Principles of uniformity in grassland management reflect a utilitarian target of “managing for the middle” by minimizing both overgrazing and underutilization while avoiding or preventing fire and other disturbances that consume aboveground biomass. We evaluated pioneering efforts to restore fire-grazer interactions via patch burning in an effort to increase spatial heterogeneity at the patch scale in the Nebraska Sandhills, a sandy soil, mixed-grass ecoregion with a long history of “management for the middle.” The application of patch burning did not increase heterogeneity of vegetation structure or composition at the patch-level in the Nebraska Sandhills. Instead, grassland structure exhibited greater temporal variability between growing and dormant seasons and smaller scale variability within fire patches. The low stocking rate and the rapid regrowth of live herbaceous vegetation following fire likely constrained the degree of spatial heterogeneity observed in our study and highlights the challenges of balancing forage supply and demand in semi-arid grasslands.

It is well-recognized in plankton ecology that phytoplankton development can lead to distinct peaks (i.e., blooms) during spring and summer. We used a 5-year (2007–2011) phytoplankton data set and utilized discontinuity analysis to assess resilience attributes of spring and summer blooms based on the cross-scale resilience model. Using the size structure (i.e., cross-scale structure as an indicator of resilience) in the sampled plankton data, we assessed whether spring and summer blooms differ substantially between but not within blooms; that is, whether they comprise alternative community regimes. Our exploratory study supported this expectation and more broadly resilience theory, which posits that ecological systems can manifest in and change between alternative regimes. The dynamics of regimes receives increased attention because rapid environmental change potentially irreversibly alters ecosystems. Model organisms are needed that allow revealing patterns and processes of various aspects of regime dynamics at tractable time scales. Our preliminary findings suggest that phytoplankton can be suitable models for assessing the intricacies of regimes and regime changes.

Abstract Fire suppression and exclusion, the historically dominant paradigm of fire management, has resulted in major modifications of fire‐dependent ecosystems worldwide. These changes are partially credited with a recent increase in wildfire number and extent, as well as more extreme fire behavior. Fire and herbivory historically interacted, and research has shown that the interaction creates a unique mosaic of vegetation heterogeneity that each disturbance alone does not create. Because fire and grazing have largely been decoupled in modern times, the degree to which the interaction affects fuels and fire regimes has not yet been quantified. We evaluated effects of fire‐only and pyric herbivory on rangeland fuels and fire behavior simulated using BehavePlus at four sites across the southern Great Plains. We predicted patches managed via pyric herbivory would maintain lower fuel loads, and less intense simulated fire behavior than fire alone. We found that time since fire was a significant predictor of fuel loads and simulated fire behavior characteristics at all sites. Fuel loads and simulated fire behavior characteristics (flame length and rate of spread) increased with increasing time since fire in all simulated weather scenarios. Pyric herbivory mediated fuel accumulation at all sites. Mean fuel loads in fire‐only treatments exceeded 5000 kg/ha within 24 months, but pyric herbivory treatments remained below 5000 kg/ha for approximately 36 months. Simulated flame lengths in fire‐only treatments were consistently higher (up to 3 × ) than in pyric herbivory treatments. Similarly, fire spread rates were higher in fire‐only than in pyric herbivory treatments in all simulated weather conditions. Although all sites had potential to burn in the most extreme weather conditions, pyric herbivory reduced fuel accumulations, flame lengths, and rates of spread across all weather patterns simulated. These reductions extended the amount of time standard wildland firefighting techniques remain effective. Therefore, incorporating pyric herbivory into fuel management practices, in areas of high herbaceous productivity, increases the effectiveness of fuel treatments.

Uncertainty in satellite-derived burned area estimates are especially high in grassland systems, which are some of the most frequently burned ecosystems in the world. In this study, we compare differences in predicted burned area estimates for a region with the highest fire activity in North America, the Flint Hills of Kansas, USA, using the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1 burned area product and a customization of the MODIS MCD64A1 product using a major ground-truthing effort by the Kansas Department of Health and Environment (KDHE-MODIS customization). Local-scale ground-truthing and the KDHE-MODIS product suggests MODIS burned area estimates under predicted fire occurrence by 28% over a 19-year period in the Flint Hills ecoregion. Between 2001 and 2019, MODIS product indicated 8% burned area for any given year in the Flint Hills, even in years when fire activity was highest (2008, 2009, 2011, 2014). Based on these results, coupling MODIS burned area computations with local scale ground-truth efforts has the potential to significantly improve fire occurrence estimates and reduce uncertainty in other grassland and savanna regions.

Wildfire activity has surged in North America’s temperate grassland biome. Like many biomes, this system has undergone drastic land-use change over the last century; however, how various land-use types contribute to wildfire patterns in grassland systems is unclear. We determine if certain land-use types have a greater propensity for large wildfire in the U.S. Great Plains and how this changes given the percentage of land covered by a given land-use type. Almost 90% of the area burned in the Great Plains occurred in woody and grassland land-use types. Although grassland comprised the greatest area burned by large wildfires, woody vegetation burned disproportionately more than any other land-use type in the Great Plains. Wildfires were more likely to occur when woody vegetation composed greater than 20% of the landscape. Wildfires were unlikely to occur in croplands, pasture/hay fields, and developed areas. Although these patterns varied by region, wildfire was most likely to occur in woody vegetation and/or grassland in 13 of 14 ecoregions we assessed. Because woody vegetation is more conducive to extreme wildfire behaviour than other land-use types in the Great Plains, woody encroachment could pose a large risk for increasing wildfire exposure. Regional planning could leverage differential wildfire activity across land-uses to devise targeted approaches that decrease human exposure in a system prone to fire.

Management frequently creates system conditions that poorly mimic the conditions of a desirable self-organizing regime. Such management is ubiquitous across complex systems of people and nature and will likely intensify as these systems face rapid change. However, it is highly uncertain whether the costs (unintended consequences, including negative side effects) of management but also social dynamics can eventually outweigh benefits in the long term. We introduce the term "coerced regime" to conceptualize this management form and tie it into resilience theory. The concept encompasses proactive and reactive management to maintain desirable and mitigate undesirable regime conditions, respectively. A coerced regime can be quantified through a measure of the amount of management required to artificially maintain its desirable conditions. Coerced regimes comprise "ghosts" of self-sustaining desirable system regimes but ultimately become "dead regimes walking" when these regimes collapse as soon as management is discontinued. We demonstrate the broad application of coerced regimes using distinct complex systems of humans and nature (human subjects, aquatic and terrestrial environments, agriculture, and global climate). We discuss commonalities and differences between these examples to identify trade-offs between benefits and harms of management. The concept of coerced regimes can spur thinking and inform management about the duality of what we know and can envision versus what we do not know and therefore cannot envision: a pervasive sustainability conundrum as planet Earth swiftly moves toward a future without historical analogue.

Mismatches between invasive species management policies and ecological knowledge can lead to profound societal consequences. For this reason, natural resource agencies have adopted the scientifically-based density-impact invasive species curve to guide invasive species management. We use the density-impact model to evaluate how well management policies for a native invader (Juniperus virginiana) match scientific guidelines. Juniperus virginiana invasion is causing a sub-continental regime shift from grasslands to woodlands in central North America, and its impacts span collapses in endemic diversity, heightened wildfire risk, and crashes in grazing land profitability. We (1) use land cover data to identify the stage of Juniperus virginiana invasion for three ecoregions within Nebraska, USA, (2) determine the range of invasion stages at individual land parcel extents within each ecoregion based on the density-impact model, and (3) determine policy alignment and mismatches relative to the density-impact model in order to assess their potential to meet sustainability targets and avoid societal impacts as Juniperus virginiana abundance increases. We found that nearly all policies evidenced doublethink and policy-ecology mismatches, for instance, promoting spread of Juniperus virginiana regardless of invasion stage while simultaneously managing it as a native invader in the same ecoregion. Like other invasive species, theory and literature for this native invader indicate that the consequences of invasion are unlikely to be prevented if policies fail to prioritize management at incipient invasion stages. Theory suggests a more realistic approach would be to align policy with the stage of invasion at local and ecoregion management scales. There is a need for scientists, policy makers, and ecosystem managers to move past ideologies governing native versus non-native invader classification and toward a framework that accounts for the uniqueness of native species invasions, their anthropogenic drivers, and their impacts on ecosystem services.

In the Great Plains of the central United States, water resources for human and aquatic life rely primarily on surface runoff and local recharge from rangelands that are under rapid transformation to woodland by the encroachment of Eastern redcedar (redcedar; Juniperus virginiana) trees. In this synthesis, the current understanding and impact of redcedar encroachment on the water budget and water resources available for non-ecosystem use are reviewed. Existing studies concluded that the conversion from herbaceous-dominated rangeland to redcedar woodland increases precipitation loss to canopy interception and vegetation transpiration. The decrease of soil moisture, particularly for the subsurface soil layer, is widely documented. The depletion of soil moisture is directly related to the observed decrease in surface runoff, and the potential of deep recharge for redcedar encroached watersheds. Model simulations suggest that complete conversion of the rangelands to redcedar woodland at the watershed and basin scale in the South-central Great Plains would lead to reduced streamflow throughout the year, with the reductions of streamflow between 20 to 40% depending on the aridity of the climate of the watershed. Recommended topics for future studies include: (i) The spatial dynamics of redcedar proliferation and its impact on water budget across a regional hydrologic network; (ii) the temporal dynamics of precipitation interception by the herbaceous canopy; (iii) the impact of redcedar infilling into deciduous forests such as the Cross Timbers and its impact on water budget and water availability for non-ecosystem use; (iv) land surface and climate interaction and cross-scale hydrological modeling and forecasting; (v) impact of redcedar encroachment on sediment production and water quality; and (vi) assessment and efficacy of different redcedar control measures in restoring hydrological functions of watershed.

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.

The philosopher John Passmore distinguished between (1) "problems in ecology," or what we might call problems in scientific understanding of ecological change, and (2) "ecological problems," or what we might call problems faced by societies due to ecological change. The spread of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana) and conversion of the central and southern Great Plains of North America to juniper woodland might be categorized as a problem in ecology, an ecological problem, or both. Here, we integrate and apply two interdisciplinary approaches to problem-solving - social-ecological systems thinking and ecocriticism - to understand the role of human culture in recognizing, driving, and responding to cedar's changing geographic distribution. We interpret the spread of cedar as a process of culturally induced range infilling due to the ongoing social-ecological impacts of colonization, analyze poetic literary texts to clarify the concepts that have so far informed different cultural values related to cedar, and explore the usefulness of diverse interdisciplinary collaborations and knowledge for addressing social-ecological challenges like cedar spread in the midst of rapidly unfolding global change. Our examination suggests that it is not only possible, but preferable, to address cedar spread as both a scientific and a social problem. Great Plains landscapes are teetering between grassland and woodland, and contemporary human societies both influence and choose how to cope with transitions between these ecological states. We echo previous studies in suggesting that human cultural values about stability and disturbance, especially cultural concepts of fire, will be primary driving factors in determining future trajectories of change on the Great Plains. Although invasion-based descriptors of cedar spread may be useful in ecological research and management, language based on the value of restraint could provide a common vocabulary for effective cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary communication about the relationship between culture and cedar, as well as an ethical framework for cross-cultural communication, decision-making, and management.