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The interest in the problem of small asteroids observed shortly before a deep close approach or an impact with the Earth has grown a lot in recent years. Since the observational dataset of such objects is very limited, they deserve dedicated orbit determination and hazard assessment methods. The currently available systems are based on the systematic ranging, a technique providing a 2-dimensional manifold of orbits compatible with the observations, the so-called Manifold Of Variations. In this paper we first review the Manifold Of Variations method, to then show how this set of virtual asteroids can be used to predict the impact location of short-term impactors, and compare the results with those of already existent methods.

We introduce a new method to perform preliminary orbit determination for space debris on low Earth orbits (LEO). This method works with tracks of radar observations: each track is composed by $n\ge 4$ topocentric position vectors per pass of the satellite, taken at very short time intervals. We assume very accurate values for the range $\rho$, while the angular positions (i.e. the line of sight, given by the pointing of the antenna) are less accurate. We wish to correct the errors in the angular positions already in the computation of a preliminary orbit. With the information contained in a pair of radar tracks, using the laws of the two-body dynamics, we can write 8 equations in 8 unknowns. The unknowns are the components of the topocentric velocity orthogonal to the line of sight at the two mean epochs of the tracks, and the corrections $\Delta$ to be applied to the angular positions. We take advantage of the fact that the components of $\Delta$ are typically small. We show the results of some tests, performed with simulated observations, and compare this algorithm with Gibbs' method and the Keplerian integrals method.

Juno is a NASA mission launched in 2011 with the goal of studying Jupiter. The probe will arrive to the planet in 2016 and will be placed for one year in a polar high-eccentric orbit to study the composition of the planet, the gravity and the magnetic field. The Italian Space Agency (ASI) provided the radio science instrument KaT (Ka-Band Translator) used for the gravity experiment, which has the goal of studying the Jupiter's deep structure by mapping the planet's gravity: such instrument takes advantage of synergies with a similar tool in development for BepiColombo, the ESA cornerstone mission to Mercury. The Celestial Mechanics Group of the University of Pisa, being part of the Juno Italian team, is developing an orbit determination and parameters estimation software for processing the real data independently from NASA software ODP. This paper has a twofold goal: first, to tell about the development of this software highlighting the models used, second, to perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of interest to the mission., Comment: Accepted for publication in MONTHLY NOTICES of the Royal Astronomical Society 2014 October 31. Received 2014 July 28; in original form 2013 October 4

We present the results of a large scale simulation, reproducing the behavior of a data center for the build-up and maintenance of a complete catalog of space debris in the upper part of the low Earth orbits region (LEO). The purpose is to determine the performances of a network of advanced optical sensors, through the use of the newest orbit determination algorithms developed by the Department of Mathematics of Pisa (DM). Such a network has been proposed to ESA in the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) framework by Carlo Gavazzi Space SpA (CGS), Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF), DM, and Istituto di Scienza e Tecnologie dell'Informazione (ISTI-CNR). The conclusion is that it is possible to use a network of optical sensors to build up a catalog containing more than 98% of the objects with perigee height between 1100 and 2000 km, which would be observable by a reference radar system selected as comparison. It is also possible to maintain such a catalog within the accuracy requirements motivated by collision avoidance, and to detect catastrophic fragmentation events. However, such results depend upon specific assumptions on the sensor and on the software technologies.

The first integrals of the Kepler problem are used to compute preliminary orbits starting from two short observed arcs of a celestial body, which may be obtained either by optical or radar observations. We write polynomial equations for this problem, that we can solve using the powerful tools of computational Algebra. An algorithm to decide if the linkage of two short arcs is successful, i.e. if they belong to the same observed body, is proposed and tested numerically. In this paper we continue the research started in [Gronchi, Dimare, Milani, 'Orbit determination with the two-body intergrals', CMDA (2010) 107/3, 299-318], where the angular momentum and the energy integrals were used. A suitable component of the Laplace-Lenz vector in place of the energy turns out to be convenient, in fact the degree of the resulting system is reduced to less than half., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures

We study a particular kind of chaotic dynamics for the planar 3-centre problem on small negative energy level sets. We know that chaotic motions exist, if we make the assumption that one of the centres is far away from the other two (see Bolotin and Negrini, J. Diff. Eq. 190 (2003), 539--558): this result has been obtained by the use of the Poincar\'e-Melnikov theory. Here we change the assumption on the third centre: we do not make any hypothesis on its position, and we obtain a perturbation of the 2-centre problem by assuming its intensity to be very small. Then, for a dense subset of possible positions of the perturbing centre on the real plane, we prove the existence of uniformly hyperbolic invariant sets of periodic and chaotic almost collision orbits by the use of a general result of Bolotin and MacKay (see Cel. Mech. & Dyn. Astr. 77 (2000), 49--75). To apply it, we must preliminarily construct chains of collision arcs in a proper way. We succeed in doing that by the classical regularisation of the 2-centre problem and the use of the periodic orbits of the regularised problem passing through the third centre., Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures

We investigate a method to compute a finite set of preliminary orbits for solar system bodies using the first integrals of the Kepler problem. This method is thought for the applications to the modern sets of astrometric observations, where often the information contained in the observations allows only to compute, by interpolation, two angular positions of the observed body and their time derivatives at a given epoch; we call this set of data attributable. Given two attributables of the same body at two different epochs we can use the energy and angular momentum integrals of the two-body problem to write a system of polynomial equations for the topocentric distance and the radial velocity at the two epochs. We define two different algorithms for the computation of the solutions, based on different ways to perform elimination of variables and obtain a univariate polynomial. Moreover we use the redundancy of the data to test the hypothesis that two attributables belong to the same body (linkage problem). It is also possible to compute a covariance matrix, describing the uncertainty of the preliminary orbits which results from the observation error statistics. The performance of this method has been investigated by using a large set of simulated observations of the Pan-STARRS project., Comment: 23 pages, 1 figure