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Background: As large-scale observational data become more available, caution regarding causal assumptions remains critically important. This may be especially true for Mendelian randomisation (MR), an increasingly popular approach. Point estimation in MR usually requires strong, often implausible homogeneity assumptions beyond the core instrumental conditions. Bounding, which does not require homogeneity assumptions, is infrequently applied in MR. Objectives: We aimed to demonstrate computing nonparametric bounds for the causal risk difference derived from multiple proposed instruments in an MR study where effect heterogeneity is expected. Methods: Using data from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (n = 2056) and Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 6216) to study the average causal effect of maternal pregnancy alcohol use on offspring attention deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms, we proposed 11 maternal SNPs as instruments. We computed bounds assuming subsets of SNPs were jointly valid instruments, for all combinations of SNPs where the MR model was not falsified. Results: The MR assumptions were violated for all sets with more than 4 SNPs in one cohort and for all sets with more than 2 SNPs in the other. Bounds assuming one SNP was an individually valid instrument barely improved on assumption-free bounds. Bounds tightened as more SNPs were assumed to be jointly valid instruments, and occasionally identified directions of effect, though bounds from different sets varied. Conclusions: Our results suggest that, when proposing multiple instruments, bounds can contextualise plausible magnitudes and directions of effects. Computing bounds over multiple assumption sets, particularly in large, high-dimensional data, offers a means of triangulating results across different potential sources of bias within a study and may help researchers to better evaluate and emphasise which estimates are compatible with the most plausible assumpt

Background: Researchers often use random-effects or fixed-effects meta-analysis to combine findings from multiple study populations. However, the causal interpretation of these models is not always clear, and they do not easily translate to settings where bounds, rather than point estimates, are computed. Methods: If bounds on an average causal effect of interest in a well-defined population are computed in multiple study populations under specified identifiability assumptions, then under those assumptions the average causal effect would lie within all study-specific bounds and thus the intersection of the study-specific bounds. We demonstrate this by pooling bounds on the average causal effect of prenatal alcohol exposure on attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder symptoms, computed in two European cohorts and under multiple sets of assumptions in Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Results: For all assumption sets considered, pooled bounds were wide and did not identify the direction of effect. The narrowest pooled bound computed implied the risk difference was between-4 and 34 percentage points. Conclusions: All pooled bounds computed in our application covered the null, illustrating how strongly point estimates from prior MR studies of this effect rely on within-study homogeneity assumptions. We discuss how the interpretation of both pooled bounds and point estimation in MR is complicated by possible heterogeneity of effects across populations.

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and obesity are positively associated, with increasing evidence that they share genetic risk factors. Our aim was to examine whether these findings apply to both types of ADHD symptoms for female and male adolescents. We used data from 791 girl and 735 boy twins ages 16-17 years to examine sex-specific phenotypic correlations between the presence of ADHD symptoms and overweight/obese status. For correlations exceeding .20, we then fit bivariate twin models to estimate the genetic and environmental correlations between the presence of ADHD symptoms and overweight/obese status. ADHD symptoms and height/weight were parent- and self-reported, respectively. Phenotypic correlations were .30 (girls) and .08 (boys) for inattention and overweight/obese status and .23 (girls) and .14 (boys) for hyperactivity/impulsivity and overweight/obese status. In girls, both types of ADHD symptoms and overweight/obese status were highly heritable, with unique environmental effects comprising the remaining variance. Furthermore, shared genetic effects explained most of the phenotypic correlations in girls. Results suggest that the positive association of both types of ADHD symptoms with obesity may be stronger in girls than boys. Further, in girls, these associations may stem primarily from shared genetic factors., Funding agencies:United States Department of Health & Human ServicesNational Institutes of Health (NIH) - USANIH National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) T32-MH076694 R01-MH119084 R01-MH118278 K23-DK120517 K01-AA025113 538-2013-8864 NIH National Institute of Diabetes & Digestive & Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) K01-MH109782 MNIH National Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism (NIAAA) R01-MH120170 Brain and Behavior Research Foundation Distinguished Investigator GrantMartini Family FoundationMcLean Hospital Women's Mental Health Innovation FundLundbeckfonden R276-2018-4581

Objective: To investigate the genetic architecture of internalizing symptoms in childhood and adolescence. Method: In 22 cohorts, multiple univariate genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were performed using repeated assessments of internalizing symptoms, in a total of 64,561 children and adolescents between 3 and 18 years of age. Results were aggregated in meta-analyses that accounted for sample overlap, first using all available data, and then using subsets of measurements grouped by rater, age, and instrument. Results: The meta-analysis of overall internalizing symptoms (INToverall) detected no genome-wide significant hits and showed low single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) heritability (1.66%, 95% CI = 0.84-2.48%, neffective = 132,260). Stratified analyses indicated rater-based heterogeneity in genetic effects, with self-reported internalizing symptoms showing the highest heritability (5.63%, 95% CI = 3.08%-8.18%). The contribution of additive genetic effects on internalizing symptoms appeared to be stable over age, with overlapping estimates of SNP heritability from early childhood to adolescence. Genetic correlations were observed with adult anxiety, depression, and the well-being spectrum (|rg| > 0.70), as well as with insomnia, loneliness, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism, and childhood aggression (range |rg| = 0.42-0.60), whereas there were no robust associations with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, or anorexia nervosa. Conclusion: Genetic correlations indicate that childhood and adolescent internalizing symptoms share substantial genetic vulnerabilities with adult internalizing disorders and other childhood psychiatric traits, which could partially explain both the persistence of internalizing symptoms over time and the high comorbidity among childhood psychiatric traits. Reducing phenotypic heterogeneity in childhood samples will be key in paving the way t