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In response to the coronavirus pandemic, governments implemented social distancing, attempting to block the virus spread within territories. While it is well accepted that social isolation plays a role in epidemic control, the precise connections between mobility data indicators and epidemic dynamics are still a challenge. In this work, we investigate the dependency between a social isolation index and epidemiological metrics for several Brazilian cities. Classic statistical methods are employed to support the findings. As a first, initially surprising, result, we illustrate how there seems to be no apparent functional relationship between social isolation data and later effects on disease incidence. However, further investigations identified two regimes of successful employment of social isolation: as a preventive measure or as a remedy, albeit remedy measures require greater social isolation and bring higher burden to health systems. Additionally, we exhibit cases of successful strategies involving lockdowns and an indicator-based mobility restriction plan., The bigger picture During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments used mobility data to assess the effectiveness of social distancing policies, but is it really possible to measure the effectiveness of epidemic control measures using mobility data? In this work, we found that the relationship between mobility data and epidemic metrics is far from being simple in heterogeneous countries such as Brazil, but there are clear relations between them if other factors are taken into account. We have found two regimes under which the outcome of epidemic control measures are related to mobility data, which depend on when social distancing policies were implemented. Early implementation of social restrictions as a preventive measure leads to lower incidence peaks with an overall smaller intensity of the restrictions, while the implementation at later stages, as a remedy for high epidemic metrics, while effective, requires a greater intensity of the restrictions and may bring a greater burden to the health system., Do we have to stay home to control the pandemic? What happens if we do not? These are difficult questions that researchers are trying to better understand. Using Brazilian social isolation data, we found that preventive implementation of restrictive measures requires lower levels of isolation and leads to smaller incidence peaks. If we take our chances and wait to act, social distancing as a remedy works, but requires stricter measures and brings a greater burden on the health system.

Mobile geolocation data is a valuable asset in the assessment of movement patterns of a population. Once a highly contagious disease takes place in a location the movement patterns aid in predicting the potential spatial spreading of the disease, hence mobile data becomes a crucial tool to epidemic models. In this work, based on millions of anonymized mobile visits data in Brazil, we investigate the most probable spreading patterns of the COVID-19 within states of Brazil. The study is intended to help public administrators in action plans and resources allocation, whilst studying how mobile geolocation data may be employed as a measure of population mobility during an epidemic. The first part of the study focus on the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the period of March 2020, when the disease first started to spread in these states. Metapopulation models for the disease spread were simulated in order to evaluate the risk of infection of each city within the states, by ranking them according to the time the disease will take to infect each city. We observed that, although the high risk regions are those closer to the capital cities, where the outbreak has started, there are also cities in the countryside with great risk.

In order to use psychometric instruments to assess a multidimensional construct, we may decompose it in dimensions and, in order to assess each dimension, develop a set of items, so one may assess the construct as a whole, by assessing its dimensions. In this scenario, the content analysis of items aims to verify if the developed items are assessing the dimension they are supposed to. In the content analysis process, it is customary to request the judgement of specialists in the studied construct about the dimension that the developed items assess, what makes it a subjective process as it relies upon the personal opinion of the specialists. This paper aims to develop a nonparametric statistical approach to the content analysis of items in order to present a practical method to assess the consistency of the content analysis process, by the development of a statistical test that seeks to determine if all the specialists have the same capability to judge the items. A simulation study is conducted to assess the consistency of the test and it is applied to a real validation process.

Sortition, i.e., random appointment for public duty, has been employed by societies throughout the years, especially for duties related to the judicial system, as a firewall designated to prevent illegitimate interference between parties in a legal case and agents of the legal system. In judicial systems of modern western countries, random procedures are mainly employed to select the jury, the court and/or the judge in charge of judging a legal case, so that they have a significant role in the course of a case. Therefore, these random procedures must comply with some principles, as statistical soundness; complete auditability; open-source programming; and procedural, cryptographical and computational security. Nevertheless, some of these principles are neglected by some random procedures in judicial systems, that are, in some cases, performed in secrecy and are not auditable by the involved parts. The assignment of cases in the Brazilian Supreme Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal) is an example of such procedures, for it is performed by a closed-source algorithm, unknown to the public and to the parts involved in the judicial cases, that allegedly assign the cases randomly to the justice chairs based on their caseload. In this context, this article presents a review of how sortition has been employed historically by societies, and discusses how Mathematical Statistics may be applied to random procedures of the judicial system, as it has been applied for almost a century on clinical trials, for example. Based on this discussion, a statistical model for assessing randomness in case assignment is proposed and applied to the Brazilian Supreme Court in order to shed light on how this assignment process is performed by the closed-source algorithm. Guidelines for random procedures are outlined and topics for further researches presented.

This paper uses a classical approach to feature selection: minimization of a cost function applied on estimated joint distributions. However, in this new formulation, the optimization search space is extended. The original search space is the Boolean lattice of features sets (BLFS), while the extended one is a collection of Boolean lattices of ordered pairs (CBLOP), that is (features, associated value), indexed by the elements of the BLFS. In this approach, we may not only select the features that are most related to a variable Y, but also select the values of the features that most influence the variable or that are most prone to have a specific value of Y. A local formulation of Shannon's mutual information, which generalizes Shannon's original definition, is applied on a CBLOP to generate a multiple resolution scale for characterizing variable dependence, the Local Lift Dependence Scale (LLDS). The main contribution of this paper is to define and apply the LLDS to analyse local properties of joint distributions that are neglected by the classical Shannon's global measure in order to select features. This approach is applied to select features based on the dependence between: i-the performance of students on university entrance exams and on courses of their first semester in the university; ii-the congress representative party and his vote on different matters; iii-the cover type of terrains and several terrain properties.

The classical approach to feature selection consists in minimizing a cost function of the estimated joint distribution of the variable of interest and the feature vectors. However, in order to estimate the joint distribution, and therefore, the cost function, it is necessary to discretize the variables, so that feature selection algorithms are partition dependent, as they depend on the partitions in which the variables are discretized. In this framework, this paper aims to propose a systematic approach to the discretization of random vectors, which is based on the Local Lift Dependence. Our approach allows an interpretation of the local dependence between the variable of interest and the selected features, so that it is possible to outline the kind of dependence that exists between them. The proposed approach is applied to study the dependence between the performances on entrance exam subjects and on first semester courses of University of Sao Paulo Statistics and Computer Science undergraduate programs.

In his best-selling book An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, W. Feller established a way of ending the St. Petersburg Paradox by the introduction of an entrance fee, and provided it for the case in which the game is played with a fair coin. A natural generalization of his method is to establish the entrance fee for the case in which the probability of head isθ (0

In this survey we present an extensive research of the vast literature about the Generalized Lambda Distribution (GLD) and propose a hurdle, or two-way, model whose associated distribution is the GLD in order to meet the demand for a highly flexible model of heavy-tailed data with excess of zeros. We apply the developed models to a dataset consisting of yearly healthcare expenses, a typical example of heavy-tailed data with excess of zeros. The fitted models are compared with models based on the Generalised Pareto Distribution and it is established that the GLD models perform best., Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures

BIANCHETTI, Lucídio; SGUISSARDI, Valdemar. Da universidade à Commoditycidade: ou de como e quando, se a educação/formação é sacrificada no altar do Mercado, o futuro da universidade se situaria em algum lugar do passado. Campinas, SP: Mercado de Letras, 2017

A compreensão dos mecanismos de controle da atividade ovariana é necessária para o sucesso das biotecnologias da reprodução. Embora existam inúmeros trabalhos a respeito da aplicação do hormônio luteinizante (LH) na função ovariana, pouco se sabe sobre a sua influência na morfologia e formação da vasculatura do corpo lúteo (CL). Diante disto, o presente projeto teve como objetivo a quantificação da densidade vascular dos CLs de animais tratados com Gonadotrofina Corionica Humana (hCG) após a ovulação. Para tanto, foram utilizados ratas wistar, cujos CLs foram divididos em dois grupos: (A) tratado com hCG na manhã seguinte a cópula e (B) controle (solução fisiológica a 0,9 % de NaCl). Foram confeccionadas lâminas dos ovários dos animais para a quantificação da densidade vascular. Os resultados obtidos não revelaram diferenças significantes entre a densidade vascular dos grupos tratado e controle. The knowledge of the mechanisms that affect the control of the ovarian activity is essential for the success of reproduction biotechnologies. Although a number of studies have been carried out in which the luteinizing hormone (LH) was used to control the ovarian activity, little is known about its influence in the morphology and vascular formation of the corpus luteum, aiming to increase the local blood flow. Thus, the objective of the present experiment was the quantification of the vascular density of corpora lutea (Cls) in animals treated with human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) just after ovulation. Therefore, eighteen wistar rats were used in this experiment. Eight rats in the treated group and ten rats in the control group. Corpora lutea were divided into two groups: group (A) treated with hCG in the following morning after copulation, and group (B) control animals which received an injection of 0.9% sodium chloride solution. Ovaries from each group were used for preparation of histological sections for vascular density qualification. No statistical significance was found between the two groups tested.

The knowledge of the mechanisms that affect the control of the ovarian activity is essential for the success of reproduction biotechnologies. Although a number of studies have been carried out in which the luteinizing hormone (LH) was used to control the ovarian activity, little is known about its influence in the morphology and vascular formation of the corpus luteum, aiming to increase the local blood flow. Thus, the objective of the present experiment was the quantification of the vascular density of corpora lutea (Cls) in animals treated with human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) just after ovulation. Therefore, eighteen wistar rats were used in this experiment. Eight rats in the treated group and ten rats in the control group. Corpora lutea were divided into two groups: group (A) treated with hCG in the following morning after copulation, and group (B) control animals which received an injection of 0.9% sodium chloride solution. Ovaries from each group were used for preparation of histological sections for vascular density qualification. No statistical significance was found between the two groups tested. Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;}

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:25:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2010-06-30Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:32:30Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 guerra_dm_me_botib.pdf: 2345678 bytes, checksum: 3a29cbd28a1d454f240afad94975996e (MD5) Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) A compreensão dos mecanismos moleculares controladores do desenvolvimento, função e regressão do CL bovino é necessária para o aprimoramento da manipulação hormonal ovariana. Fortes evidências sugerem o envolvimento de fatores de crescimento fibroblástico (FGFs) na regulação do crescimento e regressão do CL. “Splicing” alternativo de 4 genes formam sete subtipos de FGFRs com afinidade variável por diferentes FGFs. Os membros da subfamília do FGF8 (FGF8, 17 e 18) ativam eficientemente o FGFR3C e 4 e podem atuar em cooperação nos tecidos que expressão estes receptores. O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar o padrão de expressão dos FGFRs e dos membros da subfamília do FGF8 no CL bovino (CL). Os CLs foram obtidos de ovários de abatedouro e classificados em 4 estádios de desenvolvimento (estádio/1= corpo hemorrágico, estádio/2= CL em desenvolvimento, estádio/3= CL maduro/início da luteólise funcional e estádio/4= luteólise estrutural). O RNAm foi mensurado por PCR semiquantitativo e a proteína localizada por imunohistoquímica. A expressão do RNAm codificante das isoformas ‘B’ e ‘C’ de FGFR1 e FGFR2 foi detectada no CL bovino por PCR associado à eletroforese e foi acompanhada pela localização da proteína nas pequenas e grandes células luteínicas. A expressão do RNAm do FGFR1C e 2C não variou durante o desenvolvimento luteínico, distintamente a expressão do FGFR1B aumentou no estádio 3. Embora os FGFRs 3B, 3C e 4 tenham sido detectados de forma inconsistente por PCR associado à eletroforese, o RNAm do FGFR3C e FGFR4 foram detectados por PCR em tempo real em todos os estádios do desenvolvimento luteínico. O RNAm do FGF18 foi detectado por PCR em tempo real em todos os estádios do desenvolvimento luteínico e sua abundancia do RNAm do FGF18 foi maior no estádio 3 comparado com os estádios 1, 2 e 4. Em contraste, os RNAm do FGF8 e 17... The molecular mechanisms controlling the development, function and regression of the bovine corpus luteum are necessary for the improvement of reproductive biotechnologies. Strong evidence suggests the involvement of fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) in the regulation of growth, and regression of the corpus luteum (CL). Alternative splicing of 4 genes give rise to seven subtypes of FGFRs with varying affinity for different FGFs. FGF8 subfamily members (FGF8, 17 and 18) efficiently activate FGFR3C and FGFR4 and may act in cooperation in tissues expressing these receptors. The objective of the present study was to determine the pattern of expression of FGF8 subfamily members and FGFRs in the bovine CL. Bovine CLs were obtained from abattoir ovaries and classed into four stages of development (stage 1= corpus hemorragicum, stage 2= developing CL, stage 3= mature/early functional luteolysis CL, and stage 4= structural luteolysis). Expression of mRNA was measured by semiquantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) followed by gel analysis (FGFR1-4) and real time RT-PCR (FGF8 subfamily members, FGFR3C and FGFR4) and proteins were localized by immunohistochemistry. Expression of mRNA encoding ‘B’ and ‘C’ spliced forms of FGFR1 and FGFR2 was readily detected in the bovine CL and was accompanied by isoform non-specific protein localization. FGFR1C and FGFR2C mRNA expression did not vary throughout CL lifespan, whereas FGFR1B was upregulated in the mature CL (stage III). FGFR3B, FGFR3C and FGFR4 expression was inconsistent in the bovine CL as assessed by PCR associated with gel analysis. FGF18, FGFR3C and FGFR4 mRNA was detected by real time PCR in all four developmental stages, and FGF18 mRNA abundance was higher in stage 3 (2.89  0.05; mean ± SEM) compared with stages 1 (0.3  0.27), 2 (0.56  1.27) and 4 (0.99  0.32). The m RNA expression ... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)

A member of the FGF7 subfamily, FGF10 acts via FGFR2B and FGFR1B. In bovine antral follicles, FGF-10 was detected in oocytes and theca cells (TC). Levels of mRNA were negatively correlated with intrafollicular concentrations of estradiol, and FGF10 inhibited estradiol production from granulosa cells (GC). In Nellore (Bos indicus), morphological divergence occurs on average 2.5 days after ovulation, when dominant follicle diameter is around 6.0 mm. To gain insight into the involvement of the FGF10 system in the control of follicle selection, we assessed mRNA expression of FGF10 in TC and of FGFR1B and FGFR2B in GC from dominant and subordinate follicles around deviation in Nellore heifers. Thirteen Nellore heifers were hormonally synchronized, and ovulation was detected by ultrasound monitoring every 12 h. Heifers were slaughtered 2 (n =4), 2.5 (n = 5), and 3 (n = 4) days after ovulation. Granulosa cells and TC were separated from the 2 largest follicles and submitted to total RNA extraction. mRNA abundance of CYP19 (aromatase), FGF10, FGFR1B, and FGFR2B was measured by real-time RT-PCR and normalized by the expression of cyclophilin A (CYCA) and GAPDH, for TC and GC, respectively. Dominant and subordinate follicles were considered those expressing the greatest and second-greatest abundance of CYP19 mRNA in GC within each heifer. Effects of follicle status and day on CYP19, FGF10, FGFR2B, and FGFR1B mRNA abundance were tested by ANOVA. On Day 2, FGFR2B mRNA abundance was greater in GC of subordinate follicles compared with dominant follicles (P = 0.006), and that of FGF10 in TC tended to exhibit the same pattern (P = 0.06). Follicle diameter was not different between dominant and subordinate follicles on Day 2 (5.5 ± 0 v. 5.12 ± 0.3 cm). On Day 2.5, FGF10 expression was greater in TC from subordinate follicles (P = 0.01), and FGFR2B expression in GC was no longer different between dominant and subordinate follicles. Follicle diameter was greater in dominant follicles on Day 2.5 (6.7 ± 0.2 v. 5.8 ± 0.3 cm; P = 0.04). On Day 3, no differences were observed between dominant and subordinate follicles for any of the genes assessed. mRNA expression of FGFR1B in GC did not change with follicle status or day. In conclusion, expression of FGF10 and FGFR2B was decreased in dominant follicles around morphological divergence, suggesting their involvement in the mechanisms controlling dominant follicle selection. As FGF10 inhibits estradiol production of GC, we propose that FGF10 and FGFR2B are suppressed in the dominant follicle to allow acquisition of full steroidogenic capacity. This research was supported by FAPESP.

Fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) has been shown to induce luteinization in granulosa cells, luteal angiogenesis, and luteal growth. Alternative splicing of 4 genes give rise to 7 subtypes of fibroblast growth factor receptors (FGFR) with varying affinity for different fibroblast growth factors (FGF). Fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 and FGF18 efficiently activate FGFR3C and FGFR4 and may act in cooperation in tissues expressing these receptors. We aimed to determine mRNA expression patterns for FGF18, FGFR3C, and FGFR4 during bovine luteal development and following induced luteolysis. In addition, we assessed FGF18 localization in the bovine CL. Bovine CL were obtained from abattoir ovaries and classed into 4 stages of development: stage 1 =corpus hemorragicum; stage 2 = developing CL; stage 3 = mature or early functional luteolysis CL; and stage 4 = structural luteolysis. To assess FGF18 and FGFR mRNA expression during induced luteolysis, adult cows (Bos taurus Holstein-Friesians) were injected with the PGF2 analogue cloprostenol (500 mg i.m. Intervet, Unterschleissheim, Germany) during the mid-luteal phase of the cycle (Days 8-12). Corpus luteum were collected by transvaginal ovariectomy at 0, 0.5, 2, 4, 12, 24, 48, and 64 hr (n = 5/time point) after PGF2 injection. Tissue samples were submitted to total RNA extraction. Expression of FGF18, FGFR3C, and 4 mRNA during the bovine CL lifespan and induced luteolysis were measured by real-time RT-PCR with oligo-dT in the RT and bovine-specific primers in the PCR. Expression of cyclophilin was used as internal control. The effect of developmental stage and time post-PGF2 on gene expression was tested by ANOVA, followed by Tukey- Kramer HSD test. Immunohistochemical analysis was performed with a commercial human antibody (anti-FGF18; Santa Cruz Biotechnology, Santa Cruz, CA, USA). Fibroblast growth factor 18, FGFR3C, and FGFR4 mRNA was detected in all 4 developmental stages; FGF18 mRNA abundance was higher in stage 3 (2.89 ± 0.05; mean ± SEM) compared with stages 1 (0.3 ± 0.27), 2 (0.56 ± 1.27), and 4 (0.99 ± 0.32). Fibroblast growth factor 18 and FGFR4 mRNA expression did not significantly change during induced luteolysis. Fibroblast growth factor receptor 3C mRNA abundance peaked 4 h after PGF2 injection and significantly decreased at 24 h post-treatment in comparison with peak levels. Immunohistochemical analysis revealed the presence of FGF18 in small and large luteal cells and in blood vessels. In conclusion, the mRNA expression patterns of FGF18 and its receptors suggest their participation in the control of luteal differentiation, particularly during functional luteolysis. The localization of FGF18 protein to blood vessels suggests it may play a role in the control of angiogenesis in the bovine CL. Supported by CAPES/FAPESP.

There is evidence that fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) are involved in the regulation of growth and regression of the corpus luteum (CL). However, the expression pattern of most FGF receptors (FGFRs) during CL lifespan is still unknown. The objective of the present study was to determine the pattern of expression of ‘B’ and ‘C’ splice variants of FGFRs in the bovine CL. Bovine CL were collected from an abattoir and classed as corpora hemorrhagica (Stage I), developing (Stage II), developed (Stage III) or regressed (Stage IV) CL. Expression of FGFR mRNA was measured by semiquantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and FGFR protein was localised by immunohistochemistry. Expression of mRNA encoding the ‘B’ and ‘C’ spliced forms of FGFR1 and FGFR2 was readily detectable in the bovine CL and was accompanied by protein localisation. FGFR1C and FGFR2C mRNA expression did not vary throughout CL lifespan, whereas FGFR1B was upregulated in the developed (Stage III) CL. FGFR3B, FGFR3C and FGFR4 expression was inconsistent in the bovine CL. The present data indicate that FGFR1 and FGFR2 splice variants are the main receptors for FGF action in the bovine CL.