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BackgroundRapid development and implementation of vaccines constituted a crucial step in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. A comprehensive understanding of physiological responses to these vaccines is important to build trust in medicine. ObjectiveThis study aims to investigate temporal dynamics before and after COVID-19 vaccination in 4 physiological parameters as well as the duration of menstrual cycle phases. MethodsIn a prospective trial, 17,825 adults in the Netherlands wore a medical device on their wrist for up to 9 months. The device recorded their physiological signals and synchronized with a complementary smartphone app. By means of multilevel quadratic regression, we examined changes in wearable-recorded breathing rate, wrist skin temperature, heart rate, heart rate variability, and objectively assessed the duration of menstrual cycle phases in menstruating participants to assess the effects of COVID-19 vaccination. ResultsThe recorded physiological signals demonstrated short-term increases in breathing rate and heart rate after COVID-19 vaccination followed by a prompt rebound to baseline levels likely reflecting biological mechanisms accompanying the immune response to vaccination. No sex differences were evident in the measured physiological responses. In menstruating participants, we found a 0.8% decrease in the duration of the menstrual phase following vaccination. ConclusionsThe observed short-term changes suggest that COVID-19 vaccines are not associated with long-term biophysical issues. Taken together, our work provides valuable insights into continuous fluctuations of physiological responses to vaccination and highlights the importance of digital solutions in health care. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)RR2-10.1186/s13063-021-05241-5

Introduction The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) ranges from 25% in the general population to 90% in patients with obesity scheduled for bariatric surgery. NAFLD can progress towards non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) associated with complications such as cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and cardiovascular disease. To date, losing weight and lifestyle modifications are the best known treatments for NASH. Bariatric surgery significantly improves NAFLD/NASH in the short term. However, the extent of this improvement is not yet clear and long-term data on the natural course of NAFLD/NASH after bariatric surgery are lacking. The factors involved in NAFLD/NASH regression after bariatric surgery have not been elucidated.Methods and analysis This is an observational prospective cohort study including patients scheduled for bariatric surgery. Extensive metabolic and cardiovascular analyses will be carried out including measurements of carotid intima media thickness and pulse wave velocity. Genomic, proteomic, lipidomic and metabolomic studies will be done. Microbioma analyses before and 1 year after surgery will be done. Transient elastography measurements will be performed before and at 1, 3 and 5 years after surgery. For those with an elevated preoperative transient elastography measurement by Fibroscan, a laparoscopic liver biopsy will be performed during surgery. Primary outcome measures are the change of steatosis and liver fibrosis 5 years after surgery. Secondary outcome measure is the comparison of the transient elastography measurements with the NAFLD Activity Score from the biopsies.Ethics and dissemination The protocol has been approved by the Medical Research Ethics Committees United, Nieuwegein, on 1 March 2022 (registration code R21.103/NL79423.100.21). The study results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and data will be presented at scientific meetings.Trial registration number NCT05499949.

# Background Globally, most maternal deaths occur during the first twenty-four hours after childbirth. Although different interventions have been implemented to improve maternal health care utilisation in Ethiopia, including immediate postnatal care, information regarding the change in immediate postnatal care utilisation over time is lacking. This study aimed to examine the trends of immediate postnatal care utilisation from the year 2011 to 2019 and to identify factors associated with immediate postnatal care utilisation using nationwide demographic and health survey data. # Methods The study was conducted using secondary data from Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) in 2011 (n=4268), 2016 (n=4081), and 2019 (n=2159). The trend analysis was conducted using data from the three surveys, however, only the latest survey data were used for the analysis of factors associated with immediate postnatal care utilisation. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify factors associated with immediate postnatal care utilisation. Odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence level (CI) was computed and adjustment was made to the survey design (i.e., weight, stratification, and clustering). # Results The percentage of women who received immediate postnatal check increased from 6.4% (95% CI=5.1-8.0) in 2011 to 16.3% (95% CI=14.3-19.0) in 2016 to 33.4 % (95% CI=28.6-39.0) in 2019. Moreover, health facility births and the percentage of women who had four or more antenatal care visits increased in this period. Having less than four (adjusted OR (aOR)=3.33; 95% CI=1.77-6.24) and greater than and equal to four antenatal care visits (aOR=7.19; 95% CI=3.80-13.56), and caesarean delivery (aOR=4.39; 95% CI=2.28-8.46) were factors positively associated with immediate postnatal care utilisation. On the other hand, giving birth at a health facility (aOR=0.04; 95% CI=0.02-0.07) was negatively associated with immediate postnatal care utilisation. # Conclusions The study showed consistent improvements in immediate postnatal care utilisation between 2011 and 2019. Despite the progress, the coverage remains low in Ethiopia, only reaching one-third of those who need it. More tailored and context-specific efforts across the continuum of maternal health care services are needed to improve the utilisation and quality of postnatal care.

Since 2015 we organized a uniform, structured collection of a fixed set of cardiovascular risk factors according the (inter)national guidelines on cardiovascular risk management. We evaluated the current state of a developing cardiovascular towards learning healthcare system-the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort Cardiovascular Risk Management (UCC-CVRM)-and its potential effect on guideline adherence in cardiovascular risk management. We conducted a before-after study comparing data from patients included in UCC-CVRM (2015-2018) and patients treated in our center before UCC-CVRM (2013-2015) who would have been eligible for UCC-CVRM using the Utrecht Patient Oriented Database (UPOD). Proportions of cardiovascular risk factor measurement before and after UCC-CVRM initiation were compared, as were proportions of patients that required (change of) blood pressure, lipid, or blood glucose lowering treatment. We estimated the likelihood to miss patients with hypertension, dyslipidemia, and elevated HbA1c before UCC-CVRM for the whole cohort and stratified for sex. In the present study, patients included up to October 2018 (n = 1904) were matched with 7195 UPOD patients with similar age, sex, department of referral and diagnose description. Completeness of risk factor measurement increased, ranging from 0% -77% before to 82%-94% after UCC-CVRM initiation. Before UCC-CVRM, we found more unmeasured risk factors in women compared to men. This sex-gap resolved in UCC-CVRM. The likelihood to miss hypertension, dyslipidemia, and elevated HbA1c was reduced by 67%, 75% and 90%, respectively, after UCC-CVRM initiation. A finding more pronounced in women compared to men. In conclusion, a systematic registration of the cardiovascular risk profile substantially improves guideline adherent assessment and decreases the risk of missing patients with elevated levels with an indication for treatment. The sex-gap disappeared after UCC-CVRM initiation. Thus, an LHS approach contributes to a more inclusive insight into quality of care and prevention of cardiovascular disease (progression).

Effective interpersonal communication is essential to provide respectful and quality maternal and newborn care (MNC). This scoping review mapped, categorized, and analysed strategies implemented to improve interpersonal communication within MNC up to 42 days after birth. Twelve bibliographic databases were searched for quantitative and qualitative studies that evaluated interventions to improve interpersonal communication between health workers and women, their partners or newborns' families. Eligible studies were published in English between January 1st 2000 and July 1st 2020. In addition, communication studies in reproduction related domains in sexual and reproductive health and rights were included. Data extracted included study design, study population, and details of the communication intervention. Communication strategies were analysed and categorized based on existing conceptualizations of communication goals and interpersonal communication processes. A total of 138 articles were included. These reported on 128 strategies to improve interpersonal communication and were conducted in Europe and North America (n = 85), Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 12), Australia and New Zealand (n = 10), Central and Southern Asia (n = 9), Latin America and the Caribbean (n = 6), Northern Africa and Western Asia (n = 4) and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (n = 2). Strategies addressed three communication goals: facilitating exchange of information (n = 97), creating a good interpersonal relationship (n = 57), and/or enabling the inclusion of women and partners in the decision making (n = 41). Two main approaches to strengthen interpersonal communication were identified: training health workers (n = 74) and using tools (n = 63). Narrative analysis of these interventions led to an update of an existing communication framework. The categorization of different forms of interpersonal communication strategy can inform the design, implementation and evaluation of communication improvement strategies. While most interventions focused on information provision, incorporating other communication goals (building a relationship, inclusion of women and partners in decision making) could further improve the experience of care for women, their partners and the families of newborns.

BackgroundSevere childhood infection has a dose-dependent association with adult cardiovascular events and with adverse cardiometabolic phenotypes. The relationship between cardiovascular outcomes and less severe childhood infections is unclear.AimTo investigate the relationship between common, non-hospitalised infections, antibiotic exposure, and preclinical vascular phenotypes in young children.DesignA Dutch prospective population-derived birth cohort study.MethodsParticipants were from the Wheezing-Illnesses-Study-Leidsche-Rijn (WHISTLER) birth cohort. We collected data from birth to 5 years on antibiotic prescriptions, general practitioner (GP)-diagnosed infections, and monthly parent-reported febrile illnesses (0-1 years). At 5 years, carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), carotid artery distensibility, and blood pressure (BP) were measured. General linear regression models were adjusted for age, sex, smoke exposure, birth weight z-score, body mass index, and socioeconomic status.ResultsRecent antibiotic exposure was associated with adverse cardiovascular phenotypes; each antibiotic prescription in the 3 and 6 months prior to vascular assessment was associated with an 18.1 μm (95% confidence interval, 4.5-31.6, p = 0.01) and 10.7 μm (0.8-20.5, p = 0.03) increase in CIMT, respectively. Each additional antibiotic prescription in the preceding 6 months was associated with an 8.3 mPa-1 decrease in carotid distensibility (-15.6- -1.1, p = 0.02). Any parent-reported febrile episode (compared to none) showed weak evidence of association with diastolic BP (1.6 mmHg increase, 0.04-3.1, p = 0.04). GP-diagnosed infections were not associated with vascular phenotypes.ConclusionsRecent antibiotics are associated with adverse vascular phenotypes in early childhood. Mechanistic studies may differentiate antibiotic-related from infection-related effects and inform preventative strategies.

Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing challenge in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. There is insufficient population-based data on CKD in Nigeria that is required to estimate its true burden, and to design prevention and management strategies. The study aims to determine the prevalence of CKD and its risk factors in Nigeria. Methods We studied 8 urban communities in Kwara State, North-Central zone of Nigeria. Blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, urinalysis, weight, height, waist circumference and hip circumference were obtained. Albuminuria and kidney length were measured by ultrasound while estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was derived from serum creatinine, using chronic disease epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation. Associations of risk factors with CKD were determined by multivariate logistic regression and expressed as adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Results One thousand three hundred and fifty-three adults ≥18 years (44% males) with mean age of 44.3 ± 14.4 years, were screened. Mean kidney lengths were: right, 93.5 ± 7.0 cm and left, 93.4 ± 7.5 cm. The age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension was 24%; diabetes 4%; obesity 8.7%; albuminuria of > 30 mg/L 7%; and dipstick proteinuria 13%. The age-adjusted prevalence of CKD by estimated GFR

Summary: Background: Most pregnancy-related deaths in low and middle income countries occur around the time of birth and are avoidable with timely care. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model to identify women at risk of intrapartum-related perinatal deaths in low-resourced settings, by (1) external validation of an existing prediction model, and subsequently (2) development of a novel model. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted among pregnant women who presented consecutively for delivery at the maternity unit of Zanzibar's tertiary hospital, Mnazi Mmoja Hospital, the Republic of Tanzania between October 2017 and May 2018. Candidate predictors of perinatal deaths included maternal and foetal characteristics obtained from routine history and physical examination at the time of admission to the labour ward. The outcomes were intrapartum stillbirths and neonatal death before hospital discharge. An existing stillbirth prediction model with six predictors from Nigeria was applied to the Zanzibar cohort to assess its discrimination and calibration performance. Subsequently, a new prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated through internal validation and corrected for overfitting using bootstrapping methods. Findings: 5747 mother-baby pairs were analysed. The existing model showed poor discrimination performance (c-statistic 0·57). The new model included 15 clinical predictors and showed promising discriminative and calibration performance after internal validation (optimism adjusted c-statistic of 0·78, optimism adjusted calibration slope =0·94). Interpretation: The new model consisted of predictors easily obtained through history-taking and physical examination at the time of admission to the labour ward. It had good performance in predicting risk of perinatal death in women admitted in labour wards. Therefore, it has the potential to assist skilled birth attendance to triage women for appropriate management during labour. Before routine implementation, external validation and usefulness should be determined in future studies. Funding: The study received funding from Laerdal Foundation, Otto Kranendonk Fund and UMC Global Health Fellowship. TD acknowledges financial support from the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (grant 91617050).

BackgroundPeroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) agonists may have favorable outcomes on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. This study serves as proof of concept to evaluate whether dual PPAR-α/γ agonists improve non-invasive tests of liver steatosis and fibrosis.MethodsThis is a post-hoc analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center trial comprising 7226 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent coronary artery disease randomized to receive aleglitazar, a PPAR-α/γ agonists, or placebo for two years. Main outcomes were change in non-invasive tests for liver steatosis and fibrosis: Liver Fat Score (LFS), Liver Accumulation Product (LAP), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS).ResultsLFS, LAP and FIB-4 decreased upon treatment, whereas scores in the placebo group remained the same or increased (PConclusionThis post-hoc analysis showed improvement of non-invasive tests of liver steatosis and fibrosis after starting dual PPAR-α/γ agonist treatment, adding to the evidence that this pathway has potential in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease treatment.

Summary: Background: Diabetes is a major health concern and is influenced by lifestyle, which can be affected by the neighbourhood environment. Specifically, a fast-food environment can influence eating behaviours and thus diabetes prevalence. Therefore, our aim was to assess the relationship between fast-food environment and diabetes prevalence for urban and rural environments in the Netherlands, using multiple indicators and buffer sizes. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data on a nationwide sample of adults older than 19 years in the Netherlands were taken from the 2012 Dutch national health survey (from Public Health Monitor), in which participants were surveyed on topics related to health and lifestyle behaviour. Fast-food outlet exposures were determined within street-network buffers of 100 m, 400 m, 1000 m, and 1500 m around residential addresses. For each of these buffers, three indicators were calculated: presence (yes or no) of fast-food outlets, fast-food outlet density, and ratio. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to assess associations of these indicators with diabetes, adjusting for potential confounders and stratifying into urban and rural areas. Findings: 387 195 adults were surveyed, 284 793 of whom were included in the study. 22 951 (8%) reported having diabetes. Fast-food outlet exposures were positively associated with diabetes prevalence. We did not observe large differences between urban and rural areas. The effect estimates were small for all indicators. For example, in the 400 m buffer in the urban environment, the odds ratio (OR) for having diabetes among people with a fast-food outlet present compared with those without, was 1·006 (95% CI 1·003–1·009) using the presence indicator. The presence indicator showed higher effect estimates and the most consistent results across buffer sizes (ranging from OR 1·005 [95% CI 1·000–1·010] with the 1000 m buffer to 1·016 [1·005–1·028] with the 1500 m buffer in urban areas and from 1·002 [0·998–1·005] with the 1500 m buffer to 1·009 [1·006–1·018] with the 100 m buffer in rural areas) compared with the density and ratio indicators. Interpretation: The results confirm the evidence that the fast-food outlet environment is a diabetes risk factor. All data included were at the individual level and the variability was ensured by the spatial distribution and number of participants. In this study, we only accounted for residential exposure because we were unable to account for exposure outside the residential environment. The findings of this study encourage local governments to consider the potential adverse effects of fast-food exposures and aim at minimising unhealthy food access. Funding: Global Geo Health Data Centre, Utrecht University, Netherlands.

Abstract Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), are increasing globally, causing about 60% of disability-adjusted life years and 39.8 million deaths in 2015. Risk factors often cluster and interact multiplicatively in an individual and this is strongly associated with the development and severity of NCDs. We assessed the sociodemographic factors associated with the presence of multiple NCD risk factors among individuals aged 18 years and older in the Kenyan population. Methods We used national representative data from 4066 individuals out of 4500 who participated in the WHO STEPs study in 2015. NCD risk factor counts were derived by summing the risk factors present in an individual and categorising into 1–3, 4–6 and 7+ risk factors in any combination of the 12 assessed NCD risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cholesterol, insufficient physical activity, excessive alcohol use, tobacco use and obesity, excess sugar intake, insufficient fruit and vegetables intake, high salt consumption, and use of unhealthy cooking fats and oils). Ordered logistic regression was used to investigate the sociodemographic factors associated with an individual possesing multiple NCD risk factors. Results Majority (75.8%) of the individuals in the study possesed 4–6 and 10% had ≥7 NCDs risk factors. Nearly everyone (99.8%) had insufficient fruits and vegetable intakes, 89.5% consumed high salt in their diet and 80.3% did not engage in sufficient physical activity. Apart from NCD risk count which increased with age among both men and women, associations with other socio-demographic factors differed between men and women. A woman of Akamba ethinicity had lower odds (0.43) while Meru women had higher odds (3.58) of higher NCD risk factor count, compared to the Kalenjin women. Among men, being a Kisii or Luo was associated with lower odds (0.48 and 0.25 respectively) of higher NCD risk factor count. Women in a marital union had higher odds (1.58) of a higher NCD risk factor count. Conclusion Majority of Kenyan adults possess more than four NCD risk factors; a clear indication of an emerging epidemic of NCDs in this population. Effective and multi-sectoral interventions targeting multiple risk factors in individuals are required to mitigate especially the behavioural and modifiable NCD risk factors in Kenya.

BackgroundStudies from high income countries report that HIV-positive people have an impaired systolic and diastolic cardiac function compared to HIV-negative people. It is unclear if results can be translated directly to the Sub-Saharan Africa context. This study assesses electro- and echocardiographic characteristics in an urban African population, comparing HIV-positive people (treated and not yet treated) with HIV-negative controls.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study in Johannesburg, South Africa. We enrolled HIV-positive participants from three randomized controlled trials that had recruited participants from routine HIV testing programs. HIV-negative controls were recruited from the community. Data were collected on demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, medical history and electrocardiographic and echocardiographic characteristics.ResultsIn total, 394 HIV-positive participants and 153 controls were enrolled. The mean age of HIV-positive participants was 40±9 years (controls: 35±10 years), and 34% were male (controls: 50%). Of HIV-positive participants 36% were overweight or obese (controls: 44%), 23% had hypertension (controls: 28%) and 12% were current smoker (controls: 37%). Median time since HIV diagnosis was 6.0 years (IQR 2.3-10.0) and median treatment duration was 4.0 years (IQR 0.0-8.0), 50% had undetectable viral load. The frequency of anatomical cardiac abnormalities was low and did not differ between people with and without HIV. We observed no relation between HIV or anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and systolic or diastolic heart function. There was an association between ART use and corrected QT interval: +11.8 ms compared to HIV-negative controls (pConclusionThe low number of major cardiac abnormalities in this relatively young, well managed urban African HIV-positive population is reassuring. The increase in corrected QT interval and left ventricular mass may contribute to higher cardiac mortality and morbidity in people living with HIV in the long term.

BACKGROUND:Uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART) is expanding rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Monitoring of virological suppression is recommended at 6 months of treatment and annually thereafter. In case of confirmed virological failure, a switch to second-line ART is indicated. There is a paucity of data on virological suppression and clinical management of patients experiencing viremia in clinical practice in LMIC. We report a large-scale multicenter assessment of virological suppression over time and management of viremia under programmatic conditions. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Linked medical record and laboratory source data from adult patients on first-line ART at 52 South African centers between 1 January 2007 and 1 May 2018 were studied. Virological suppression, switch to second-line ART, death, and loss to follow-up were analyzed. Multistate models and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess suppression over time and predictors of treatment outcomes. A total of 104,719 patients were included. Patients were predominantly female (67.6%). Median age was 35.7 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 29.9-43.0). In on-treatment analysis, suppression below 1,000 copies/mL was 89.0% at month 12 and 90.4% at month 72. Suppression below 50 copies/mL was 73.1% at month 12 and 77.5% at month 72. Intention-to-treat suppression was 75.0% and 64.3% below 1,000 and 50 copies/mL at month 72, respectively. Viremia occurred in 19.8% (20,766/104,719) of patients during a median follow-up of 152 (IQR: 61-265) weeks. Being male and below 35 years of age and having a CD4 count below 200 cells/μL prior to start of ART were risk factors for viremia. After detection of viremia, confirmatory testing took 29 weeks (IQR: 16-54). Viral resuppression to below 1,000 copies/mL without switch of ART occurred frequently (45.6%; 6,030/13,210) but was associated with renewed viral rebound and switch. Of patients with confirmed failure who remained in care, only 41.5% (1,872/4,510) were switched. The median time to switch was 68 weeks (IQR: 35-127), resulting in 12,325 person-years spent with a viral load above 1,000 copies/mL. Limitations of this study include potential missing data, which is in part addressed by the use of cross-matched laboratory source data, and the possibility of unmeasured confounding. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, 90% virological suppression below the threshold of 1,000 copies/mL was observed in on-treatment analysis. However, this target was not met at the 50-copies/mL threshold or in intention-to-treat analysis. Clinical management in response to viremia was profoundly delayed, prolonging the duration of viremia and potential for transmission. Diagnostic tools to establish the cause of viremia are urgently needed to accelerate clinical decision-making.

BackgroundDespite the use of high-sensitive cardiac troponin there remains a group of high-sensitive cardiac troponin negative patients with unstable angina with a non-neglectable risk for future adverse cardiovascular events, emphasising the need for additional risk stratification. Plasma extracellular vesicles are small bilayer membrane vesicles known for their potential role as biomarker source. Their role in unstable angina remains unexplored. We investigate if extracellular vesicle proteins are associated with unstable angina in patients with chest pain and low high-sensitive cardiac troponin.MethodsThe MINERVA study included patients presenting with acute chest pain but no acute coronary syndrome. We performed an exploratory retrospective case-control analysis among 269 patients. Cases were defined as patients with low high-sensitive cardiac troponin and proven ischemia. Patients without ischemia were selected as controls. Blood samples were fractionated to analyse the EV proteins in three plasma-subfractions: TEX, HDL and LDL. Protein levels were quantified using electrochemiluminescence immunoassay.ResultsLower levels of (adjusted) EV cystatin c in the TEX subfraction were associated with having unstable angina (OR 0.93 95% CI 0.88-0.99).ConclusionIn patients with acute chest pain but low high-sensitive cardiac troponin, lower levels of plasma extracellular vesicle cystatin c are associated with having unstable angina. This finding is hypothesis generating only considering the small sample size and needs to be confirmed in larger cohort studies, but still identifies extracellular vesicle proteins as source for additional risk stratification.

IntroductionPrediction models for gestational hypertension and preeclampsia have been developed with data and assumptions from developed countries. Their suitability and application for low resource settings have not been tested. This review aimed to identify and assess the methodological quality of prediction models for gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia with reference to their application in low resource settings.MethodsUsing combinations of keywords for gestational hypertension, preeclampsia and prediction models seven databases were searched to identify prediction models developed with maternal data obtained before 20 weeks of pregnancy and including at least three predictors (Prospero registration CRD 42017078786). Prediction model characteristics and performance measures were extracted using the CHARMS, STROBE and TRIPOD checklists. The National Institute of Health quality assessment tools for observational cohort and cross-sectional studies were used for study quality appraisal.ResultsWe retrieved 8,309 articles out of which 40 articles were eligible for review. Seventy-seven percent of all the prediction models combined biomarkers with maternal clinical characteristics. Biomarkers used as predictors in most models were pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and placental growth factor (PlGF). Only five studies were conducted in a low-and middle income country.ConclusionsMost of the studies evaluated did not completely follow the CHARMS, TRIPOD and STROBE guidelines in prediction model development and reporting. Adherence to these guidelines will improve prediction modelling studies and subsequent application of prediction models in clinical practice. Prediction models using maternal characteristics, with good discrimination and calibration, should be externally validated for use in low and middle income countries where biomarker assays are not routinely available.

Summary: Background: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40–80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629–0·741) to 0·833 (0·783–0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40–64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Funding: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research.

ObjectivesThe study explored the understanding of and perception towards cardiovascular disease (CVD) and risk factors, and how they influence prevention and development of the conditions, care-seeking and adhering to treatment.SettingInformal settlements of Nairobi.ParticipantsNine focus group discussions consisting of between six and eight purposively sampled participants were conducted among healthy individuals aged 20 years or older. A total of 65 participants (41 female) were involved.ResultsPoverty, ignorance and illiteracy promoted behaviours like smoking, (harmful) alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and unhealthy diet, implicated in the development of obesity, diabetes and hypertension. Some respondents could not see the link between behavioural risk factors with diabetes, hypertension and stroke and heart attacks. Contaminated food items consumed by the residents and familial inheritance were factors that caused CVD, whereas emotional stress from constant worry was linked to hypertension, stroke and heart attacks. Few and inadequately equipped public health facilities were hindrances to treatment seeking and adherence to treatment for CVD conditions. Lack of medication in public health facilities was considered to be the single most important barrier to adherence to treatment next to lack of family support among older patients.ConclusionInterventions to prevent and manage CVD in low-resource and urban poor settings should consider perceptions and understanding of risk factors for CVD, and the interrelationships among them while accounting for cultural and contextual issues for example, stigma and disregard for conventional medicine. Programmes should be informed by locally generated evidence on awareness and opportunities for CVD care, coupled with effective risk communication through healthcare providers. Screening for and treatment of CVD must address perceptions such as prohibitive cost of healthcare. Finally, social determinants of disease and health, mainly poverty and illiteracy, which are implicated in addressing CVD in low-resource settings, should be addressed.

ObjectivesThere is limited evidence on the effect of exposure to second hand smoke (SHS) in non-smoking pregnant mothers and infant health. We assessed the effects of maternal antenatal exposure to SHS on infant growth rate, and secondarily, on birth weight, birth length and head circumference at birth.MethodsIn this prospective cohort, 305 mother-infant pairs were studied. Mothers filled out questionnaires about exposure to SHS in pregnancy at the 3rd trimester of pregnancy. Infant anthropometry was performed at birth, day 7, and months 1, 2, 4, and 6, postnatally. Linear mixed modeling and linear regression were used to calculate growth rates over the first 6 months. The association between SHS-exposure with growth rate and birth sizes was assessed using multivariate linear regression adjusted for confounders, with SHS as both number of cigarettes and as groups (no exposure, SHS < 23 cigarettes, SHS ≥ 23 cigarettes).ResultsSeventy-three mothers were not exposed and 232 were exposed. SHS exposure (per cigarette) was not related to gain in weight, length, head circumference, and weight for length. However, infants born to mothers exposed to ≥ 23 cigarettes/d had lower head circumference gain (-0.32 mm/m, 95% CI -0.60, -0.03) than those born to non-exposed mothers. SHS exposure (per cigarette) was not related to birth weight, length, and head circumference, but exposure to ≥ 23 cigarettes was related to lower head circumference at birth (-11.09 mm, -20.03, -2.16).ConclusionsHeavy antenatal exposure to SHS in non-smoking mothers results in reduced neonatal head circumference at birth and head circumference gain over the first 6 months of life. Our findings show no clear relations between exposure to SHS during pregnancy and other markers of neonatal growth and birth size.

ObjectivesHIV infection has been associated with an impaired lung function in high-income countries, but the association between HIV infection and pulmonary function in Sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. This study aims to investigate the relation between HIV infection and pulmonary function in a rural African population.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted among HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults in a rural area in South Africa, as part of the Ndlovu Cohort Study. A respiratory questionnaire and post-bronchodilator spirometry were performed. Multivariable regression analysis was used to investigate whether HIV was independently associated with a decrease in post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio considering age, sex, body mass index, respiratory risk factors and a history of a pulmonary infection (tuberculosis (TB) or a pneumonia). Possible mediation by a history of pulmonary infection was tested by removing this variable from the final model.ResultsTwo hundred and one consecutive participants were enrolled in the study in 2016, 84 (41.8%) were HIV-positive (82.1% on ART). The median age was 38 (IQR 29-51) years. Following multivariable analysis HIV was not significantly associated to a decline in post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio (β -0.017, p 0.18). However, upon removal of a history of a pulmonary infection from the final model HIV was significantly related to post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio, β -0.026, p 0.03.ConclusionsPulmonary function is affected by HIV infection which most likely results from co-infection with TB or other pneumonia. Further research should focus on the influence of a pulmonary infection, most notably TB, on pulmonary function, especially as the incidence of TB is high in HIV infection.

BACKGROUND:The majority of the five million perinatal deaths worldwide take place in low-resource settings. In contrast to high-resource settings, almost 50% of stillbirths occur intrapartum. The aim of this study was to synthesise available evidence of strategies for foetal surveillance in low-resource settings and associated neonatal and maternal outcomes, including barriers to their implementation. METHODS AND FINDINGS:The review was registered with Prospero (CRD42016038679). Five databases were searched up to May 1st, 2016 for studies related to intrapartum foetal monitoring strategies and neonatal outcomes in low-resource settings. Two authors extracted data and assessed the risk of bias for each study. The outcomes were narratively synthesised. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis (SWOT) was conducted for each monitoring technique to analyse their implementation. There were 37 studies included: five intervention and 32 observational studies. Use of the partograph improved perinatal outcomes. Intermittent auscultation with Pinard was associated with lowest rates of caesarean sections (10-15%) but with comparable perinatal outcomes to hand-held Doppler and Cardiotocography (CTG). CTG was associated with the highest rates of caesarean sections (28-34%) without proven benefits for perinatal outcome. Several tests on admission (admission tests) and adjunctive tests including foetal stimulation tests improved the accuracy of foetal heart rate monitoring in predicting adverse perinatal outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:From the available evidence, the partograph is associated with improved perinatal outcomes and is recommended for use with intermittent auscultation for intrapartum monitoring in low resource settings. CTG is associated with higher caesarean section rates without proven benefits for perinatal outcomes, and should not be recommended in low-resource settings. High-quality evidence considering implementation barriers and enablers is needed to determine the optimal foetal monitoring strategy in low-resource settings.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is an important cause of pneumonia mortality in young children. However, clinical data for fatal RSV infection are scarce. We aimed to identify clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years with RSV-related mortality using individual patient data. Methods: In this retrospective case series, we developed an online questionnaire to obtain individual patient data for clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years who died with community-acquired RSV infection between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2015, through leading research groups for child pneumonia identified through a comprehensive literature search and existing research networks. For the literature search, we searched PubMed for articles published up to Feb 3, 2015, using the key terms “RSV”, “respiratory syncytial virus”, or “respiratory syncytial viral” combined with “mortality”, “fatality”, “death”, “died”, “deaths”, or “CFR” for articles published in English. We invited researchers and clinicians identified to participate between Nov 1, 2014, and Oct 31, 2015. We calculated descriptive statistics for all variables. Findings: We studied 358 children with RSV-related in-hospital death from 23 countries across the world, with data contributed from 31 research groups. 117 (33%) children were from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 77 (22%) were from upper middle-income countries, and 164 (46%) were from high-income countries. 190 (53%) were male. Data for comorbidities were missing for some children in low-income and middle-income countries. Available data showed that comorbidities were present in at least 33 (28%) children from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 36 (47%) from upper middle-income countries, and 114 (70%) from high-income countries. Median age for RSV-related deaths was 5·0 months (IQR 2·3–11·0) in low-income or lower middle-income countries, 4·0 years (2·0–10·0) in upper middle-income countries, and 7·0 years (3·6–16·8) in high-income countries. Interpretation: This study is the first large case series of children who died with community-acquired RSV infection. A substantial proportion of children with RSV-related death had comorbidities. Our results show that perinatal immunisation strategies for children aged younger than 6 months could have a substantial impact on RSV-related child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

INTRODUCTION:Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the most common cause of non-communicable disease mortality in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Gaps in knowledge of CVD conditions and their risk factors are important barriers in effective prevention and treatment. Yet, evidence on the awareness and knowledge level of CVD and associated risk factors among populations of SSA is scarce. This review aimed to synthesize available evidence of the level of knowledge of and perceptions towards CVDs and risk factors in the SSA region. METHODS:Five databases were searched for publications up to December 2016. Narrative synthesis was conducted for knowledge level of CVDs, knowledge of risk factors and clinical signs, factors influencing knowledge of CVDs and source of health information on CVDs. The review was registered with Prospero (CRD42016049165). RESULTS:Of 2212 titles and abstracts screened, 45 full-text papers were retrieved and reviewed and 20 were included: eighteen quantitative and two qualitative studies. Levels of knowledge and awareness for CVD and risk factors were generally low, coupled with poor perception. Most studies reported less than half of their study participants having good knowledge of CVDs and/or risk factors. Proportion of participants who were unable to identify a single risk factor and clinical symptom for CVDs ranged from 1.8% in a study among hospital staff in Nigeria to a high of 73% in a population-based survey in Uganda and 7% among University staff in Nigeria to 75.1% in a general population in Uganda respectively. High educational attainment and place of residence had a significant influence on the levels of knowledge for CVDs among SSA populations. CONCLUSION:Low knowledge of CVDs, risk factors and clinical symptoms is strongly associated with the low levels of educational attainment and rural residency in the region. These findings provide useful information for implementers of interventions targeted at the prevention and control of CVDs, and encourages them to incorporate health promotion and awareness campaigns in order to enhance knowledge and awareness of CVDs in the region.

HIV infection is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Chronic low-grade immune activation is likely one of the driving mechanisms. This systematic review provides an overview of the evidence addressing the relation between immune markers and surrogate markers of CVD (except CIMT) in HIV infection.A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library identifying all articles from 1996 to April 2015. It addressed the relation between immune markers and surrogate markers of CVD (except Carotid Intima-media Thickness) in HIV-positive adults. Two authors, using predefined criteria, independently conducted the selection of articles, critical appraisal and extraction of the data. Analysis focused on immune markers that were assessed most frequently. The review was conducted according to the PRISMA guideline and performed as part of an overarching review registered with PROSPERO (CRD42014010516).Twenty-nine articles were selected, describing 34 immune markers and nine different CVD surrogate outcomes: coronary calcium score (13 times) and flow-mediated dilation (10 times) were used most frequently. Twenty-seven studies had a cross-sectional design. CRP, IL-6 and sVCAM-1 were assessed most frequently. None of the immune markers were clearly associated with any of the surrogate CVD outcomes. No effect estimate could be calculated due to marked heterogeneity in study populations, immune markers, outcomes and statistical approaches.This review could not identify a clear association between any of the immune markers and surrogate CVD outcomes. This may reflect a true lack of association, or may be explained by heterogeneity across studies and lack of follow-up data. Future research should focus on longitudinal studies measuring a select set of immune markers and surrogate CVD outcomes awaiting the primary outcome of clinical cardiovascular events.

Myocardial Infarction (MI) has become a major cause of morbidity and mortality in China, but little is known about the prevalence of guideline-recommended cardiovascular medications after MI events over the last two decades. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to summarize cardiovascular medication use between 1995-2015 and to assess factors in associated with the trends in cardiovascular medications.A systematic search was conducted in four databases (Pubmed, Embase, CENTRAL, and CNKI) to obtain observational studies published between 1995 and 2015, reporting on the use of cardiovascular medications in China. Risk of bias of individual studies was appraised and selected studies were pooled for estimated prevalence of cardiovascular medication. Prevalence of cardiovascular medication use for 1995 and 2015 was estimated by random effects meta-regression model.From 13,940 identified publications, 35 studies, comprising 28,000 patients, were included. The pooled prevalence for aspirin, beta-blockers, statins, ACE-Inhibitors, ACE-Inhibitor/ARBs and nitrates was 92% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-0.95], 63% (95% CI: 0.57-0.69), 72% (95% CI: 0.60-0.82), 49% (95% CI: 0.41-0.57), 59% (95% CI: 0.48-0.69) and 79% (95% CI: 0.74-0.91), respectively. A significant increase in beta-blocker and statin use and a decrease of nitrate use was observed over time. The estimated prevalence of beta-blockers, statins, and nitrates was 78%, 91.1%, and 59.3% in 2015, compared to 32%, 17% and 96% in 1995, respectively.Cardiovascular medication use after MI is far from optimal in Chinese patients, even though the prevalence of use increased over the period 1995-2015. With a rapidly increasing number of MI patients in China, a comprehensive strategy on secondary prevention is warranted.PROSPERO (CRD42015025246).

Coffee and tea are commonly consumed during pregnancy. While several of their components, like caffeine, have strong pharmacological effects, the effect on the unborn fetus remains unclear. Caffeine intake has been associated with abortion, preterm birth and fetal growth restriction, but a general consensus on caffeine restriction is still lacking. We aimed to investigate antenatal coffee, tea and caffeine consumption and the effect on birth weight and length, gestational age at birth and hypertensive disorders in pregnancy.A total of 936 healthy pregnancies from the WHISTLER birth cohort with data on coffee and tea consumption were included. Maternal and child characteristics as well as antenatal coffee and tea consumption were obtained through postpartum questionnaires. Reported consumption was validated using available preconceptional data. Caffeine intake was calculated from coffee and tea consumption. Linear and logistic regression was used to assess the association with birth outcome and hypertensive disorders.After adjustment for smoking and maternal age, a daily consumption of more than 300mg of caffeine compared to less than 100mg of caffeine was significantly associated with an increased gestational age (linear regression coefficient = 2.00 days, 95%CI = 0.12-4.21, P = 0.03). Tea consumption was significantly related to a higher risk of pregnancy induced hypertension (OR = 1.13, 95%CI = 1.04-1.23, P = 0.004). No associations concerning coffee consumption or birth weight and birth length were observed.Daily caffeine consumption of more than 300mg is possibly associated with an increase in gestational age at birth. A possible relation between high tea consumption and increased risk for pregnancy induced hypertension warrants further research. For most outcomes, we found no significant associations with coffee or tea intake.

BACKGROUND:The relation of a single risk factor with atherosclerosis is established. Clinically we know of risk factor clustering within individuals. Yet, studies into the magnitude of the relation of risk factor clusters with atherosclerosis are limited. Here, we assessed that relation. METHODS:Individual participant data from 14 cohorts, involving 59,025 individuals were used in this cross-sectional analysis. We made 15 clusters of four risk factors (current smoking, overweight, elevated blood pressure, elevated total cholesterol). Multilevel age and sex adjusted linear regression models were applied to estimate mean differences in common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) between clusters using those without any of the four risk factors as reference group. RESULTS:Compared to the reference, those with 1, 2, 3 or 4 risk factors had a significantly higher common CIMT: mean difference of 0.026 mm, 0.052 mm, 0.074 mm and 0.114 mm, respectively. These findings were the same in men and in women, and across ethnic groups. Within each risk factor cluster (1, 2, 3 risk factors), groups with elevated blood pressure had the largest CIMT and those with elevated cholesterol the lowest CIMT, a pattern similar for men and women. CONCLUSION:Clusters of risk factors relate to increased common CIMT in a graded manner, similar in men, women and across race-ethnic groups. Some clusters seemed more atherogenic than others. Our findings support the notion that cardiovascular prevention should focus on sets of risk factors rather than individual levels alone, but may prioritize within clusters.

BACKGROUND:In the past years many inflammatory markers have been studied in association with clinically manifest cardiovascular disease (CVD) and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) in HIV-infected patients, to obtain insights in the increased cardiovascular risk observed in HIV infection. This systematic review provides an oversight of the current knowledge. METHODS:A search was performed in PubMed, Embase and Cochrane in July 2014, identifying all articles from 1996 onwards addressing the relation between inflammatory markers and CVD or CIMT in HIV-positive adults. Two authors, using predefined criteria, independently conducted the selection of articles, critical appraisal and extraction of the data. Analysis was focused on the immune markers that were most frequently assessed. The review protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database at 11 July 2014 (registration number CRD42014010516). This review was performed according to the PRISMA guideline. FINDINGS:Forty articles were selected; eight addressing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and thirty-two addressing CIMT. C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and d-dimer were assessed most frequently in relation to the occurrence of CVD; in four out of eight studies. All three markers were positively related to CVD in three out of four studies. Studies addressing CIMT were too heterogeneous with respect to patient populations, inflammatory markers, CIMT measurement protocols and statistical methods to allow for a formal meta-analysis to obtain summary statistics. CRP, IL-6 and soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule (sVCAM-1) were the most studied markers in relation to CIMT. None of the inflammatory markers showed an association with CIMT. INTERPRETATION:This review showed a relation between some inflammatory markers and CVD, however, no consistent relation is observed for CIMT. Statistical approaches that yields effect estimates and standardized CIMT protocols should be chosen. Further research should focus on prospective studies and a selected set of inflammatory markers.

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a strong and independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study assesses reproducibility of automatic CAC scoring on radiotherapy planning computed tomography (CT) scans of breast cancer patients, and examines its association with traditional cardiovascular risk factors.This study included 561 breast cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy between 2013 and 2015. CAC was automatically scored with an algorithm using supervised pattern recognition, expressed as Agatston scores and categorized into five categories (0, 1-10, 11-100, 101-400, >400). Reproducibility between automatic and manual expert scoring was assessed in 79 patients with automatically determined CAC above zero and 84 randomly selected patients without automatically determined CAC. Interscan reproducibility of automatic scoring was assessed in 294 patients having received two scans (82% on the same day). Association between CAC and CVD risk factors was assessed in 36 patients with CAC scores >100, 72 randomly selected patients with scores 1-100, and 72 randomly selected patients without CAC. Reliability was assessed with linearly weighted kappa and agreement with proportional agreement.134 out of 561 (24%) patients had a CAC score above zero. Reliability of CVD risk categorization between automatic and manual scoring was 0.80 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.74-0.87), and slightly higher for scans with breath-hold. Agreement was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72-0.85). Interscan reliability was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50-0.72) with an agreement of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.89). Ten out of 36 (27.8%) patients with CAC scores above 100 did not have other cardiovascular risk factors.Automatic CAC scoring on radiotherapy planning CT scans is a reliable method to assess CVD risk based on Agatston scores. One in four breast cancer patients planned for radiotherapy have elevated CAC score. One in three patients with high CAC scores don't have other CVD risk factors and wouldn't have been identified as high risk.

Baseline distributions of pregnancy disorders' biomarkers PlGF and PAPP-A levels are primarily based on Western European populations of Caucasian ethnicity. Differences in PAPP-A and PlGF concentrations by ethnicity have been observed, with increased levels in Afro-Caribbean, East Asian, and South Asian women. Baseline concentrations of sub-Saharan African women have not been evaluated.To investigate PlGF and PAPP-A in a sub-Saharan African population and assess the performance of existing reference values of PAPP-A and PlGF.A nested cross-sectional study was conducted in two public hospitals in Accra, Ghana. Out of the original 1010 women enrolled in the cohort, 398 participants were eligible for inclusion with a normotensive singleton gestation and serum samples taken between 56-97 days of pregnancy. PAPP-A and PlGF concentrations were measured with an automated immunoassay. Multiple of the median (MoM) values corrected for gestation and maternal weight for PAPP-A and PlGF were calculated using reference values of a Dutch perinatal screening laboratory based on over 10.000 samples, and PlGF manufacturer reference values, respectively.The PAPP-A median MoM was 2.34 (interquartile range (IQR) 1.24-3.97). Median PlGF MoM was 1.25 (IQR 0.95-1.80). Median MoM values for PAPP-A and PlGF tended to be slightly different for various Ghanaian ethnic subgroups.PAPP-A and PlGF MoM values appear to be substantially higher in a sub-Saharan African population compared to the Caucasian or Afro-Caribbean MoM values previously reported. The difference suggests the need for a specific correction factor for this population to avoid underestimation of risk for fetal aneuploidies or placental disorders when using PAPP-A and PlGF MoM for screening purposes.

BACKGROUND:The first antenatal clinic (ANC) visit helps to distinguish pregnant women who require standard care, from those with specific problems and so require special attention. There are protocols to guide care providers to provide optimal care to women during ANC. Our objectives were to determine the level of provider adherence to first antenatal visit guidelines in the Safe Motherhood Protocol (SMP), and assess patient factors that determine complete provider adherence. METHODS:This cross-sectional study is part of a cohort study that recruited women who delivered in eleven health facilities and who had utilized antenatal care services during their pregnancy in the Greater Accra region of Ghana. A record review of the first antenatal visit of participants was carried out to assess the level of adherence to the SMP, using a thirteen-point checklist. Information on their socio-demographic characteristics and previous pregnancy history was collected using a questionnaire. Percentages of adherence levels and baseline characteristics were estimated and cluster-adjusted odds ratios (OR) calculated to identify determinants. RESULTS:A total of 948 women who had delivered in eleven public facilities were recruited with a mean age (SD) of 28.2 (5.4) years. Overall, complete adherence to guidelines pertained to only 48.1% of pregnant women. Providers were significantly more likely to completely adhere to guidelines when caring for multiparous women [OR = 5.43 (1.69-17.44), p

BACKGROUND:Cardiac involvement in HIV infected children has been frequently reported, but whether this is due to HIV infection itself or to antiretroviral treatment (ART) is unknown. METHODS:This cross sectional study involved 114 vertically-acquired HIV-infected (56 ART-naive, 58 ART-exposed) and 51 healthy children in Jakarta, Indonesia. Echocardiography was performed to measure dimensions of the left ventricle (LV) and systolic functions. We applied general linear modeling to evaluate the associations between HIV infection/treatment status and cardiac parameters with further adjustment for potential confounders or explanatory variables. Findings are presented as (adjusted) mean differences between each of the two HIV groups and healthy children, with 95% confidence intervals and p values. RESULTS:Compared to healthy children, ART-naïve HIV-infected children did not show significant differences in age-and-height adjusted cardiac dimensions apart from larger LV internal diameter (difference 2.0 mm, 95%CI 0.2 to 3.7), whereas ART exposed HIV infection showed thicker LV posterior walls (difference = 1.1 mm, 95%CI 0.5 to 1.6), larger LV internal diameter (difference = 1.7 mm, 95%CI 0.2 to 3.2) and higher LV mass (difference = 14.0 g, 7.4 to 20.5). With respect to systolic function, reduced LV ejection fraction was seen in both ART-naïve HIV infected (adjusted difference = -6.7%, -11.4 to -2.0) and, to a lesser extent, in ART-exposed HIV infected children (difference = -4.5%, -8.5 to -0.4). Inflammation level seemed to be involved in most associations in ART-exposed HIV-infected, but few, if any, for decreased function in the ART-naive ones, whereas lower hemoglobin appeared to partially mediate chamber dilation in both groups and reduced function, mainly in ART-exposed children. CONCLUSIONS:ART-naive HIV infected children have a substantial decrease in cardiac systolic function, whereas the ART-exposed have thicker ventricular walls with larger internal diameter and higher mass, but less functional impairment.

Objective: To develop a prognostic model for the thirty-day mortality risk after adult heart transplantation. Methods: In this report we developed a prediction model for the 30-day mortality risk after adult heart transplantation. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model in 1,262 adult patients undergoing primary heart transplantation. We evaluated the accuracy of the prediction model; the agreement between the predicted probability and the observed mortality (calibration); and the ability of the model to correctly discriminate between the discordant survival pairs (discrimination). The internal validity of the prediction model was evaluated using the bootstrapping procedures. Results: Recipients age and sex, pre-transplant diagnosis, transplant status, waiting time, cardiopulmonary bypass time, donors age and sex, donor-recipient mismatch for BMI and blood type were independent predictors for 30-day mortality risk after adult heart transplantation. The model showed a good calibration and reasonable discrimination (the corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.71). The internal validity of the prediction model was acceptable. For practical use, we converted the prediction model to score chart. Conclusion: The accuracy and the validity of the prediction model were acceptable. This easy-to-use instrument for predicting the 30-day mortality risk after adult heart transplantation would benefit decision-making by classifying recipients according to their mortality risk and allowing optimal allocation of a donor to a recipient for heart transplantation.

Background: Myocardial infarctions at different locations have been related to different sets of risk factors. This study was designed to examine the association between cardiovascular risk factors and specific coronary artery calcification (CAC).Methods: The study population comprised 573 postmenopausal women selected from a population-based cohort study. Established vascular risk factors were measured. The women underwent a multi detector-row computed tomography (16-MDCT) (Philips Mx 8000 IDT 16) to assess coronary calcium. The Agatston score was used to quantify coronary calcium. Logistic regression models were utilized to assess the relations.Results: The prevalence of coronary artery calcification (Agatston score>0) was 61.5% (n=348). CAC was most common in the left anterior descending (LAD) artery with a prevalence of 43.9%; and the rates of prevalence in the right coronary artery (RCA), the circumflex (LCX), the left main artery (LM), and the posterior descending artery (PDA) were 23.1%, 19.4%, 15.8%, and 0.3%, respectively. In the multivariate regression models, age was predominantly related to the calcification in the LAD and LCX, low density lipoprotein to calcification in the LAD, and cholesterol to the calcification of the RCA. Hypertension and systolic & diastolic blood pressures were related to the calcification of the LCX, whereas smoking was predominantly related to the calcification of both LAD and RCA. Finally, age, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure were significantly related to the calcification in the LM.Conclusion: Our findings showed that the consequences of elevated risk factor levels on the development of atherosclerosis appeared to be different across the segments of the coronary arteries.

Mohammad Hadi Zafarmand1,3, Yvonne T van der Schouw1, Diederick E Grobbee1, Peter W de Leeuw2, Michiel L Bots11Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Str 6.131, 3584 CX, Utrecht, The Netherlands; 2Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital Maastricht, PO Box 5800, NL-6202 AZ, Maastricht, The Netherlands; 3Persian Gulf Health Research Center, Department of Genomic Health, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Moalem Street, Po Box 3631, Bushehr, IranBackground: The alanine allele of P12A polymorphism in PPARG gene in a few studies has been associated with a reduced or increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Yet, the risk relation has not been confirmed, and data on ischemic stroke (IS) is scarce. We therefore investigated the role of this polymorphism on occurrence of AMI, coronary heart disease (CHD) and IS.Methods and findings: We performed a case-cohort study in 15,236 initially healthy Dutch women and applied a Cox proportional hazards model to study the relation of the P12A polymorphism and AMI (n = 71), CHD (n = 211), and IS (n = 49) under different inheritance models. In addition, meta-analyses of published studies were performed. Under the dominant inheritance model, carriers of the alanine allele compared with those with the more common genotype were not at increased or decreased risk of CHD (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58 to 1.17) and of IS (HR = 1.03; 95% CI, 0.14 to 7.74). In addition no relations were found under the recessive and additive models. Our meta-analyses corroborated these findings by showing no significant association. For AMI we found a borderline significant association under dominant (HR = 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.94), and additive (HR = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.26 to 1.00) models which could be due to chance, because of small cases in this subgroup. The meta-analysis did not show any association between the polymorphism and risk of AMI under the different genetic models.Conclusions: Our study in healthy Dutch women in combination with the meta-analyses of previous reports does not provide support for a role of P12A polymorphism in PPARG gene in MI and CHD risk. Also our study shows that the polymorphism has no association with IS risk.Keywords: genetics, myocardial infarction, polymorphism, PPARG gene, risk factors, population-based

Despite ample research on depression after stroke, the debate continues regarding whether symptoms such as sleep disturbances, loss of energy, changes in appetite and diminished concentration should be considered to be consequences of stroke or general symptoms of depression. By comparing symptoms in depressed and non-depressed stroke patients with patients in general practice and patients with symptomatic atherosclerotic diseases, we aim to further clarify similarities and distinctions of depression after stroke and depression in other patient populations. Based on this, it is possible to determine if somatic symptoms should be evaluated in stroke patients in diagnosing depression after stroke.An observational multicenter study is conducted in three hospitals and seven general practices including 382 stroke patients admitted to hospital with a clinical diagnosis of intracerebral hemorrhage or ischemic infarction, 1160 patients in general practice (PREDICT-NL), and 530 patients with symptomatic atherosclerotic diseases (SMART-Medea).The prevalence of major depressive disorder according to DSM-IV criteria was 14.1% (95% CI 11.0%-18.0%) in the stroke cohort, 5.4% (95% CI 3.8%-7.9%) in the symptomatic atherosclerotic diseases cohort and 12.9% (95% CI 11.1%-15.0%) in the general practice cohorts. Comparing depressed patients of the three cohorts demonstrated broadly similar symptom profiles, as well as comparable levels of individual symptom prevalence. However, the stroke patients suffered more severely from these symptoms than patients in the other populations.The findings suggest that depression after stroke is not a different type of depression. This finding indicates that all depressive symptoms should be evaluated in stroke patients, including somatic symptoms.

Severe pre-eclampsia and eclampsia are one of the major causes of maternal mortality globally. Reducing maternal morbidity and mortality demands optimizing quality of care. Criteria-based audits are a tool to define, assess and improve quality of care. The aim of this study was to determine applicability of a criteria-based audit to assess quality of care delivered to women with severe hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, and to assess adherence to protocols and quality of care provided at a regional hospital in Accra, Ghana.Checklists for management of severe preeclampsia, hypertensive emergency and eclampsia were developed in an audit cycle based on nine existing key clinical care protocols. Fifty cases were audited to assess quality of care, defined as adherence to protocols. Analysis was stratified for complicated cases, defined as (imminent) eclampsia, perinatal mortality and/or one or more WHO maternal near miss C-criteria.Mean adherence to the nine protocols ranged from 15-85%. Protocols for 'plan for delivery' and 'magnesium sulphate administration' were best adhered to (85%), followed by adherence to protocols for 'eclampsia' (64%), 'severe pre-eclampsia at admission' (60%), 'severe pre-eclampsia ward follow-up' (53%) and 'hypertensive emergency' (53%). Protocols for monitoring were least adhered to (15%). No difference was observed for severe disease. Increased awareness, protocol-based training of staff, and clear task assignment were identified as contributors to better adherence.A criteria-based audit is an effective tool to determine quality of care, identify gaps in standard of care, and allow for monitoring and evaluation in a health facility, ultimately resulting in improved quality of care provided and reduced maternal morbidity and mortality. In our audit, good adherence was observed for plan for delivery and treatment with magnesium sulphate. Substandard adherence to a number of protocols was identified, and points towards opportunities for targeted improvement strategies.

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events.We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity.Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites.The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.

The District Health Information Management System-2 (DHIMS-2) is the database for storing health service data in Ghana, and similar to other low and middle income countries, paper-based data collection is being used by the Ghana Health Service. As the DHIMS-2 database has not been validated before this study aimed to evaluate its validity.Seven out of ten districts in the Greater Accra Region were randomly sampled; the district hospital and a polyclinic in each district were recruited for validation. Seven pre-specified neonatal health indicators were considered for validation: antenatal registrants, deliveries, total births, live birth, stillbirth, low birthweight, and neonatal death. Data were extracted on these health indicators from the primary data (hospital paper-registers) recorded from January to March 2012. We examined all the data captured during this period as these data have been uploaded to the DHIMS-2 database. The differences between the values of the health indicators obtained from the primary data and that of the facility and DHIMS-2 database were used to assess the accuracy of the database while its completeness was estimated by the percentage of missing data in the primary data.About 41,000 data were assessed and in almost all the districts, the error rates of the DHIMS-2 data were less than 2.1% while the percentages of missing data were below 2%. At the regional level, almost all the health indicators had an error rate below 1% while the overall error rate of the DHIMS-2 database was 0.68% (95% C I = 0.61-0.75) and the percentage of missing data was 3.1% (95% C I = 2.96-3.24).This study demonstrated that the percentage of missing data in the DHIMS-2 database was negligible while its accuracy was close to the acceptable range for high quality data.

Low birth weight (LBW) remains to be a leading cause of neonatal death and a major contributor to infant and under-five mortality. Its prevalence has not declined in the last decade in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Asia. Some individual level factors have been identified as risk factors for LBW but knowledge is limited on contextual risk factors for LBW especially in SSA.Contextual risk factors for LBW in Ghana were identified by performing multivariable multilevel logistic regression analysis of 6,900 mothers dwelling in 412 communities that participated in the 2003 and 2008 Demographic and Health Surveys in Ghana.Contextual-level factors were significantly associated with LBW: Being a rural dweller increased the likelihood of having a LBW infant by 43% (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.01-2.01; P-value

Epidemiology is occurrence research. The object of epidemiologic research is the occurrence of illness and its relation to determinants (occurrence relation). Similar to other epidemiologic research, the motive for applied clinical studies is to learn about an object. Eventually, the knowledge produced by the research needs to be incorporated in the knowledge base that guides daily medical care. During the design and conduct of research, it is important to keep this aim in mind and be aware of the effects that choices in the design of the study may have on the applicability and implementation of the results.

ObjectivesTo explore the "how" and "why" of care decision making by frontline providers of maternal and newborn services in the Greater Accra region of Ghana and determine appropriate interventions needed to support its quality and related maternal and neonatal outcomes.MethodsA cross sectional and descriptive mixed method study involving a desk review of maternal and newborn care protocols and guidelines availability, focus group discussions and administration of a structured questionnaire and observational checklist to frontline providers of maternal and newborn care.ResultsTacit knowledge or 'mind lines' was an important primary approach to care decision making. When available, protocols and guidelines were used as decision making aids, especially when they were simple handy tools and in situations where providers were not sure what their next step in management had to be. Expert opinion and peer consultation were also used through face to face discussions, phone calls, text messages, and occasional emails depending on the urgency and communication medium access. Health system constraints such as availability of staff, essential medicines, supplies and equipment; management issues (including leadership and interpersonal relations among staff), and barriers to referral were important influences in decision making. Frontline health providers welcomed the idea of interventions to support clinical decision making and made several proposals towards the development of such an intervention. They felt such an intervention ought to be multi-faceted to impact the multiple influences simultaneously. Effective interventions would also need to address immediate challenges as well as more long-term challenges influencing decision-making.ConclusionSupporting frontline worker clinical decision making for maternal and newborn services is an important but neglected aspect of improved quality of care towards attainment of MDG 4 & 5. A multi-faceted intervention is probably the best way to make a difference given the multiple inter-related issues.

Recent observational studies suggest that β-blockers may improve long-term prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We assessed whether β-blocker use improves all-cause mortality in patients with episodes of acute bronchitis.An observational cohort study using data from the electronic medical records of 23 general practices in the Netherlands. The data included standardized information about daily patient contacts, diagnoses, and drug prescriptions. Cox regression was applied with time-varying treatment and covariates.The study included 4,493 patients aged 45 years and older, with at least one episode of acute bronchitis between 1996 and 2006. The mean (SD) age of the patients was 66.9 (11.7) years, and 41.9% were male. During a mean (SD) follow up period of 7.7 (2.5) years, 20.4% developed COPD. In total, 22.7% had cardiovascular comorbidities, resulting in significant higher mortality rates than those without (51.7% vs. 12.0%, p

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition during critical periods of growth and development may permanently affect lung physiology and function. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether acute undernutrition in childhood or young adulthood increases the risk of later hospitalization for obstructive airways disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or asthma. METHODS: We studied 7,841 women from Prospect-EPIC who experienced the 1944-45 Dutch famine between ages 0 and 21. Pulmonary outcomes were measured by registered hospital admissions and exposure-blinded computed tomography (CT) in a subgroup of 295 women. With Cox proportional hazard regression we explored effects of famine exposure on risk of hospitalization for obstructive airways disease, COPD, and asthma. With logistic regression we explored effects of famine on risk of CT evidence of pulmonary disease. RESULTS: Risks of hospitalization for obstructive airways disease, copd, and asthma were increased after moderate famine exposure, and significantly increased after severe famine exposure: hazard ratios for obstructive airways disease were 1.31 (95% CI: 0.97 to 1.77) and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.10 to 2.23) respectively. Associations between famine exposure and hospitalization for COPD were stronger in ever-smokers than in never-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Acute undernutrition in childhood or young adulthood is associated with an increased risk of later COPD and asthma hospitalization, possibly through increased sensitivity for tobacco smoke.

BACKGROUND:Genome-wide association studies in Japanese populations recently identified common variants in the KCNQ1 gene to be associated with type 2 diabetes. We examined the association of these variants within KCNQ1 with type 2 diabetes in a Dutch population, investigated their effects on insulin secretion and metabolic traits and on the risk of developing complications in type 2 diabetes patients. METHODOLOGY:The KCNQ1 variants rs151290, rs2237892, and rs2237895 were genotyped in a total of 4620 type 2 diabetes patients and 5285 healthy controls from the Netherlands. Data on macrovascular complications, nephropathy and retinopathy were available in a subset of diabetic patients. Association between genotype and insulin secretion/action was assessed in the additional sample of 335 individuals who underwent a hyperglycaemic clamp. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We found that all the genotyped KCNQ1 variants were significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in our Dutch population, and the association of rs151290 was the strongest (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.35, p = 0.002). The risk C-allele of rs151290 was nominally associated with reduced first-phase glucose-stimulated insulin secretion, while the non-risk T-allele of rs2237892 was significantly correlated with increased second-phase glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (p = 0.025 and 0.0016, respectively). In addition, the risk C-allele of rs2237892 was associated with higher LDL and total cholesterol levels (p = 0.015 and 0.003, respectively). We found no evidence for an association of KCNQ1 with diabetic complications. CONCLUSIONS:Common variants in the KCNQ1 gene are associated with type 2 diabetes in a Dutch population, which can be explained at least in part by an effect on insulin secretion. Furthermore, our data suggest that KCNQ1 is also associated with lipid metabolism.

BackgroundThere has been widespread interest in the potential of combination cardiovascular medications containing aspirin and agents to lower blood pressure and cholesterol ('polypills') to reduce cardiovascular disease. However, no reliable placebo-controlled data are available on both efficacy and tolerability.MethodsWe conducted a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial of a polypill (containing aspirin 75 mg, lisinopril 10 mg, hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg and simvastatin 20 mg) in 378 individuals without an indication for any component of the polypill, but who had an estimated 5-year cardiovascular disease risk over 7.5%. The primary outcomes were systolic blood pressure (SBP), LDL-cholesterol and tolerability (proportion discontinued randomised therapy) at 12 weeks follow-up.FindingsAt baseline, mean BP was 134/81 mmHg and mean LDL-cholesterol was 3.7 mmol/L. Over 12 weeks, polypill treatment reduced SBP by 9.9 (95% CI: 7.7 to 12.1) mmHg and LDL-cholesterol by 0.8 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.9) mmol/L. The discontinuation rates in the polypill group compared to placebo were 23% vs 18% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.00, p = 0.2). There was an excess of side effects known to the component medicines (58% vs 42%, p = 0.001), which was mostly apparent within a few weeks, and usually did not warrant cessation of trial treatment.ConclusionsThis polypill achieved sizeable reductions in SBP and LDL-cholesterol but caused side effects in about 1 in 6 people. The halving in predicted cardiovascular risk is moderately lower than previous estimates and the side effect rate is moderately higher. Nonetheless, substantial net benefits would be expected among patients at high risk.Trial registrationAustralian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000099426.

BACKGROUND: In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the odds ratio (OR) can substantially overestimate the risk ratio (RR) if the incidence of the outcome is over 10%. This study determined the frequency of use of ORs, the frequency of overestimation of the OR as compared with its accompanying RR in published RCTs, and we assessed how often regression models that calculate RRs were used. METHODS: We included 288 RCTs published in 2008 in five major general medical journals (Annals of Internal Medicine, British Medical Journal, Journal of the American Medical Association, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine). If an OR was reported, we calculated the corresponding RR, and we calculated the percentage of overestimation by using the formula . RESULTS: Of 193 RCTs with a dichotomous primary outcome, 24 (12.4%) presented a crude and/or adjusted OR for the primary outcome. In five RCTs (2.6%), the OR differed more than 100% from its accompanying RR on the log scale. Forty-one of all included RCTs (n = 288; 14.2%) presented ORs for other outcomes, or for subgroup analyses. Nineteen of these RCTs (6.6%) had at least one OR that deviated more than 100% from its accompanying RR on the log scale. Of 53 RCTs that adjusted for baseline variables, 15 used logistic regression. Alternative methods to estimate RRs were only used in four RCTs. CONCLUSION: ORs and logistic regression are often used in RCTs and in many articles the OR did not approximate the RR. Although the authors did not explicitly misinterpret these ORs as RRs, misinterpretation by readers can seriously affect treatment decisions and policy making.