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We investigated links between antimicrobial resistance in community-onset bacteremia and 1-year bacteremia recurrence by using the clinical data warehouse of Europe’s largest university hospital group in France. We included adult patients hospitalized with an incident community-onset Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, or Klebsiella spp. bacteremia during 2017–2019. We assessed risk factors of 1-year recurrence using Fine–Gray regression models. Of the 3,617 patients included, 291 (8.0%) had >1 recurrence episode. Third-generation cephalosporin (3GC)-resistance was significantly associated with increased recurrence risk after incident Klebsiella spp. (hazard ratio 3.91 [95% CI 2.32–6.59]) or E. coli (hazard ratio 2.35 [95% CI 1.50–3.68]) bacteremia. Methicillin resistance in S. aureus bacteremia had no effect on recurrence risk. Although several underlying conditions and infection sources increased recurrence risk, 3GC-resistant Klebsiella spp. was associated with the greatest increase. These results demonstrate a new facet to illness induced by 3GC-resistant Klebsiella spp. and E. coli in the community setting.

Abstract The transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 within hospitals can exceed that in the general community because of more frequent close proximity interactions (CPIs). However, epidemic risk across wards is still poorly described. We measured CPIs directly using wearable sensors given to all present in a clinical ward over a 36-h period, across 15 wards in three hospitals in April-June 2020. Data were collected from 2114 participants and combined with a simple transmission model describing the arrival of a single index case to the ward to estimate the risk of an outbreak. Estimated epidemic risk ranged four-fold, from 0.12 secondary infections per day in an adult emergency to 0.49 per day in general paediatrics. The risk presented by an index case in a patient varied 20-fold across wards. Using simulation, we assessed the potential impact on outbreak risk of targeting the most connected individuals for prevention. We found that targeting those with the highest cumulative contact hours was most impactful (20% reduction for 5% of the population targeted), and on average resources were better spent targeting patients. This study reveals patterns of interactions between individuals in hospital during a pandemic and opens new routes for research into airborne nosocomial risk.

BackgroundLong-term care facilities (LTCFs) are hotspots for pathogen transmission. Infection control interventions are essential, but the high density and heterogeneity of interindividual contacts within LTCF may hinder their efficacy. Here, we explore how the patient-staff contact structure may inform effective intervention implementation.Methods and findingsUsing an individual-based model (IBM), we reproduced methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus colonisation transmission dynamics over a detailed contact network recorded within a French LTCF of 327 patients and 263 staff over 3 months. Simulated baseline cumulative colonisation incidence was 21 patients (prediction interval: 11, 31) and 35 staff (prediction interval: 19, 54). We examined the potential impact of 3 types of interventions against transmission (reallocation reducing the number of unique contacts per staff, reinforced contact precautions, and hypothetical vaccination protecting against acquisition), targeted towards specific populations. All 3 interventions were effective when applied to all nurses or healthcare assistants (median reduction in MRSA colonisation incidence up to 35%), but the benefit did not exceed 8% when targeting any other single staff category. We identified "supercontactor" individuals with most contacts ("frequency-based," overrepresented among nurses, porters, and rehabilitation staff) or with the longest cumulative time spent in contact ("duration-based," overrepresented among healthcare assistants and patients in elderly care or persistent vegetative state (PVS)). Targeting supercontactors enhanced interventions against pathogen spread in the LTCF. With contact precautions, targeting frequency-based staff supercontactors led to the highest incidence reduction (20%, 95% CI: 19, 21). Vaccinating a mix of frequency- and duration-based staff supercontactors led to a higher reduction (23%, 95% CI: 22, 24) than all other approaches. Although based on data from a single LTCF, when varying epidemiological parameters to extend to other pathogens, our results suggest that targeting supercontactors is always the most effective strategy, indicating this approach could be applied to prevent transmission of other nosocomial pathogens.ConclusionsBy characterising the contact structure in hospital settings and identifying the categories of staff and patients more likely to be supercontactors, with either more or longer contacts than others, interventions against nosocomial spread could be more effective. We find that the most efficient implementation strategy depends on the intervention (reallocation, contact precautions, vaccination) and target population (staff, patients, supercontactors). Importantly, both staff and patients may be supercontactors, highlighting the importance of including patients in measures to prevent pathogen transmission in LTCF.

Small populations (e.g., hospitals, schools or workplaces) are characterised by high contact heterogeneity and stochasticity affecting pathogen transmission dynamics. Empirical individual contact data provide unprecedented information to characterize such heterogeneity and are increasingly available, but are usually collected over a limited period, and can suffer from observation bias. We propose an algorithm to stochastically reconstruct realistic temporal networks from individual contact data in healthcare settings (HCS) and test this approach using real data previously collected in a long-term care facility (LTCF). Our algorithm generates full networks from recorded close-proximity interactions, using hourly inter-individual contact rates and information on individuals' wards, the categories of staff involved in contacts, and the frequency of recurring contacts. It also provides data augmentation by reconstructing contacts for days when some individuals are present in the HCS without having contacts recorded in the empirical data. Recording bias is formalized through an observation model, to allow direct comparison between the augmented and observed networks. We validate our algorithm using data collected during the i-Bird study, and compare the empirical and reconstructed networks. The algorithm was substantially more accurate to reproduce network characteristics than random graphs. The reconstructed networks reproduced well the assortativity by ward (first-third quartiles observed: 0.54-0.64; synthetic: 0.52-0.64) and the hourly staff and patient contact patterns. Importantly, the observed temporal correlation was also well reproduced (0.39-0.50 vs 0.37-0.44), indicating that our algorithm could recreate a realistic temporal structure. The algorithm consistently recreated unobserved contacts to generate full reconstructed networks for the LTCF. To conclude, we propose an approach to generate realistic temporal contact networks and reconstruct unobserved contacts from summary statistics computed using individual-level interaction networks. This could be applied and extended to generate contact networks to other HCS using limited empirical data, to subsequently inform individual-based epidemic models.

Abstract Background Few studies on neonatal severe bacterial infection are available in LMICs. Data are needed in these countries to prioritize interventions and decrease neonatal infections which are a primary cause of neonatal mortality. The BIRDY project (Bacterial Infections and Antimicrobial Drug Resistant among Young Children) was initially conducted in Madagascar, Senegal and Cambodia (BIRDY 1, 2012–2018), and continued in Madagascar only (BIRDY 2, 2018–2021). We present here the BIRDY 2 project whose objectives were (1) to estimate the incidence of neonatal severe bacterial infections and compare these findings with those obtained in BIRDY 1, (2) to identify determinants associated with severe bacterial infection and (3) to specify the antibiotic resistance pattern of bacteria in newborns. Methods The BIRDY 2 study was a prospective community-based mother and child cohort, both in urban and semi-rural areas. All pregnant women in the study areas were identified and enrolled. Their newborns were actively and passively followed-up from birth to 3 months. Data on clinical symptoms developed by the children and laboratory results of all clinical samples investigated were collected. A Cox proportional hazards model was performed to identify risk factors associated with possible severe bacterial infection. Findings A total of 53 possible severe bacterial infection and 6 confirmed severe bacterial infection episodes were identified among the 511 neonates followed-up, with more than half occurring in the first 3 days. For the first month period, the incidence of confirmed severe bacterial infection was 11.7 per 1,000 live births indicating a 1.3 -fold decrease compared to BIRDY 1 in Madagascar (p = 0.50) and the incidence of possible severe bacterial infection was 76.3, indicating a 2.6-fold decrease compared to BIRDY 1 in Madagascar (p

Abstract Background Sepsis is a complex health condition, leading to long-term morbidity and mortality. Understanding the risk factors for recurrent sepsis, as well as its impact on mid- and long-term mortality among other risk factors, is essential to improve patient survival. Methods A risk factor analysis, based on French nationwide medico-administrative data, was conducted on a cohort of patients above 15 years old, hospitalized with an incident sepsis in metropolitan France between 1st January 2018 and 31st December 2018 and who survived their index hospitalization. Two main analyses, focusing on outcomes occurring 1-year post-discharge, were conducted: a first one to assess risk factors for recurrent sepsis and a second to assess risk factors for mortality. Results Of the 178017 patients surviving an incident sepsis episode in 2018 and included in this study, 22.3% died during the 1-year period from discharge and 73.8% had at least one hospital readmission in acute care, among which 18.1% were associated with recurrent sepsis. Patients aged between 56 and 75, patients with cancer and renal disease, with a long index hospital stay or with mediastinal or cardiac infection had the highest odds of recurrent sepsis. One-year mortality was higher for patients with hospital readmission for recurrent sepsis (aOR 2.93; 99% CI 2.78–3.09). Among all comorbidities, patients with cancer (aOR 4.35; 99% CI 4.19–4.52) and dementia (aOR 2.02; 99% CI 1.90–2.15) had the highest odds of 1-year mortality. Conclusion Hospital readmission for recurrent sepsis is one of the most important risk factors for 1-year mortality of septic patients, along with age and comorbidities. Our study suggests that recurrent sepsis, as well as modifiable or non-modifiable other risk factors identified, should be considered in order to improve patient care pathway and survival.

BackgroundAntibiotic resistance is a global public health issue, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where antibiotics required to treat resistant infections are not affordable. LMICs also bear a disproportionately high burden of bacterial diseases, particularly among children, and resistance jeopardizes progress made in these areas. Although outpatient antibiotic use is a major driver of antibiotic resistance, data on inappropriate antibiotic prescribing in LMICs are scarce at the community level, where the majority of prescribing occurs. Here, we aimed to characterize inappropriate antibiotic prescribing among young outpatient children and to identify its determinants in 3 LMICs.Methods and findingsWe used data from a prospective, community-based mother-and-child cohort (BIRDY, 2012 to 2018) conducted across urban and rural sites in Madagascar, Senegal, and Cambodia. Children were included at birth and followed-up for 3 to 24 months. Data from all outpatient consultations and antibiotics prescriptions were recorded. We defined inappropriate prescriptions as antibiotics prescribed for a health event determined not to require antibiotic therapy (antibiotic duration, dosage, and formulation were not considered). Antibiotic appropriateness was determined a posteriori using a classification algorithm developed according to international clinical guidelines. We used mixed logistic analyses to investigate risk factors for antibiotic prescription during consultations in which children were determined not to require antibiotics. Among the 2,719 children included in this analysis, there were 11,762 outpatient consultations over the follow-up period, of which 3,448 resulted in antibiotic prescription. Overall, 76.5% of consultations resulting in antibiotic prescription were determined not to require antibiotics, ranging from 71.5% in Madagascar to 83.3% in Cambodia. Among the 10,416 consultations (88.6%) determined not to require antibiotic therapy, 25.3% (n = 2,639) nonetheless resulted in antibiotic prescription. This proportion was much lower in Madagascar (15.6%) than in Cambodia (57.0%) or Senegal (57.2%) (p < 0.001). Among the consultations determined not to require antibiotics, in both Cambodia and Madagascar the diagnoses accounting for the greatest absolute share of inappropriate prescribing were rhinopharyngitis (59.0% of associated consultations in Cambodia, 7.9% in Madagascar) and gastroenteritis without evidence of blood in the stool (61.6% and 24.6%, respectively). In Senegal, uncomplicated bronchiolitis accounted for the greatest number of inappropriate prescriptions (84.4% of associated consultations). Across all inappropriate prescriptions, the most frequently prescribed antibiotic was amoxicillin in Cambodia and Madagascar (42.1% and 29.2%, respectively) and cefixime in Senegal (31.2%). Covariates associated with an increased risk of inappropriate prescription include patient age greater than 3 months (adjusted odds ratios (aOR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) ranged across countries from 1.91 [1.63, 2.25] to 5.25 [3.85, 7.15], p < 0.001) and living in rural as opposed to urban settings (aOR ranged across countries from 1.83 [1.57, 2.14] to 4.40 [2.34, 8.28], p < 0.001). Diagnosis with a higher severity score was also associated with an increased risk of inappropriate prescription (aOR = 2.00 [1.75, 2.30] for moderately severe, 3.10 [2.47, 3.91] for most severe, p < 0.001), as was consultation during the rainy season (aOR = 1.32 [1.19, 1.47], p < 0.001). The main limitation of our study is the lack of bacteriological documentation, which may have resulted in some diagnosis misclassification and possible overestimation of inappropriate antibiotic prescription.ConclusionIn this study, we observed extensive inappropriate antibiotic prescribing among pediatric outpatients in Madagascar, Senegal, and Cambodia. Despite great intercountry heterogeneity in prescribing practices, we identified common risk factors for inappropriate prescription. This underscores the importance of implementing local programs to optimize antibiotic prescribing at the community level in LMICs.

Abstract Background Antibiotic resistance is increasing among urinary pathogens, resulting in worse clinical and economic outcomes. We analysed factors associated with antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ARB) in patients hospitalized for urinary tract infection, using the comprehensive French national claims database. Methods Hospitalized urinary tract infections were identified from 2015 to 2017. Cases (due to ARB) were matched to controls (without ARB) according to year, age, sex, infection, and bacterium. Healthcare-associated (HCAI) and community-acquired (CAI) infections were analysed separately; logistic regressions were stratified by sex. Results From 9460 cases identified, 6468 CAIs and 2855 HCAIs were matched with controls. Over a 12-months window, the risk increased when exposure occurred within the last 3 months. The following risk factors were identified: antibiotic exposure, with an OR reaching 3.6 [2.8–4.5] for men with CAI, mostly associated with broad-spectrum antibiotics; surgical procedure on urinary tract (OR 2.0 [1.5–2.6] for women with HCAI and 1.3 [1.1–1.6] for men with CAI); stay in intensive care unit > 7 days (OR 1.7 [1.2–2.6] for men with HCAI). Studied co-morbidities had no impact on ARB. Conclusions This study points out the critical window of 3 months for antibiotic exposure, confirms the impact of broad-spectrum antibiotic consumption on ARB, and supports the importance of prevention during urological procedures, and long intensive care unit stays.

Human papillomaviruses are common sexually transmitted infections, caused by a large diversity of genotypes. In the context of vaccination against a subgroup of genotypes, better understanding the role of genotype interactions and human sexual behavior on genotype dynamics is essential. Herein, we present an individual-based model that integrates realistic heterosexual partnership behaviors and simulates interactions between vaccine and non-vaccine genotypes. Genotype interactions were considered, assuming a previous vaccine-genotype infection shortened (competition) or extended (synergy) the duration of a secondary non-vaccine-genotype infection. Sexual behavior determined papillomavirus acquisition and transmission: only 19.5% of active individuals at most 1 partner r during the year, but > 80% of those with ≥ 2 partners, were infected before vaccine introduction. The pre-vaccination situation was consistent with all genotype interaction scenarios. These genotype interactions, despite being undetectable during the pre-vaccination era, markedly impacted genotype prevalence after vaccination started, with a significant increase/decrease of non-vaccine genotypes prevalence for respectively competitive/synergistic interactions. These prevalence changes were more pronounced in individuals with ≤ 3 partners per year (up to 30% of prevalence modification assuming 65% vaccine coverage) but barely visible for individuals with > 3 partners per year (at most 0.30%). Results suggest the presence of genotype interaction, which is consistent with the pre-vaccine situation, may impact the dynamics of non-vaccine genotypes, particularly in less active individuals.

Objective This study aims to provide a case definition of sepsis of presumed bacterial aetiology based on 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes, to assess trends in sepsis incidence and mortality between 2015 and 2019 in France, and to describe the characteristics of affected patients and hospital stays.Design Nationwide, population-based, retrospective observational study.Setting Metropolitan France between 2015 and 2019.Participants Between 2015 and 2019, 1 224 433 patients with sepsis of presumed bacterial aetiology were selected from the French National Hospital Discharge Database (Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d’Information) and were identified from corresponding ICD-10 codes for explicit sepsis or implicit sepsis.Main outcomes measures Annual overall and age-specific and gender-specific incidence and 95% CI, as well as trends in sepsis incidence and mortality, were estimated. Comorbidities, length of hospital stay and outcomes were described.Results The sex-standardised and age-standardised incidence per 100 000 (95% CI) increased from 357 (356.0 to 359.0) in 2015 to 403 (401.9 to 405.0) in 2019 and remained higher for males compared with females. Children under 1 year and patients over 75 years consistently had the highest incidence. The most common comorbidities were cancer and chronic heart failure. The median hospital length of stay was 12 days. Most patients came from home, but only half returned home after their hospital stay and approximately 15% were discharged to long-term care. In-hospital mortality was about 25% and declined along the study period.Conclusions Medico-administrative databases can be used to provide nationwide estimates of the in-hospital burden of bacterial sepsis. The results confirm the high burden of sepsis in France. These data should be complemented by estimating the additional burden associated with fungal and viral infections during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract Background Long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are vulnerable to outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Timely epidemiological surveillance is essential for outbreak response, but is complicated by a high proportion of silent (non-symptomatic) infections and limited testing resources. Methods We used a stochastic, individual-based model to simulate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) along detailed inter-individual contact networks describing patient-staff interactions in a real LTCF setting. We simulated distribution of nasopharyngeal swabs and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests using clinical and demographic indications and evaluated the efficacy and resource-efficiency of a range of surveillance strategies, including group testing (sample pooling) and testing cascades, which couple (i) testing for multiple indications (symptoms, admission) with (ii) random daily testing. Results In the baseline scenario, randomly introducing a silent SARS-CoV-2 infection into a 170-bed LTCF led to large outbreaks, with a cumulative 86 (95% uncertainty interval 6–224) infections after 3 weeks of unmitigated transmission. Efficacy of symptom-based screening was limited by lags to symptom onset and silent asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission. Across scenarios, testing upon admission detected just 34–66% of patients infected upon LTCF entry, and also missed potential introductions from staff. Random daily testing was more effective when targeting patients than staff, but was overall an inefficient use of limited resources. At high testing capacity (> 10 tests/100 beds/day), cascades were most effective, with a 19–36% probability of detecting outbreaks prior to any nosocomial transmission, and 26–46% prior to first onset of COVID-19 symptoms. Conversely, at low capacity (

Background: Klebsiella pneumoniae (hereafter, Kp) is a major public health threat responsible for high levels of multidrug resistant (MDR) human infections. Besides, Kp also causes severe infections in the community, especially in Asia and Africa. Although most Kp infections are caused by endogenous intestinal carriage, little is known about the prevalence and microbiological characteristics of Kp in asymptomatic human carriage, and attached risk factors including environmental sources exposure. Methods: Here, 911 pregnant women from communities in Madagascar, Cambodia, and Senegal were screened for gut colonization by Kp. Characteristics of Kp strains (antimicrobial susceptibility, genomic diversity, virulence, and resistance genes) were defined, and associated risk factors were investigated. Results: Kp carriage rate was 55.9%, and Kp populations were highly heterogeneous (6 phylogroups, 325 sequence types, Simpson index 99.6%). One third of Kp isolates had acquired antimicrobial resistance genes. MDR-Kp (11.7% to 39.7%) and extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Kp (0.7% to 14.7%) varied among countries. Isolates with virulence genes were detected (14.5%). Environmental exposure factors including food, animal contacts, or hospitalization of household members were associated with carriage of Kp, antimicrobial resistance and hypervirulence. However, risk factors were country-specific and Kp subpopulation-specific. Conclusion: This large-scale multicenter study uncovers the huge diversity of Kp in human gut carriage, demonstrates that antimicrobial resistance is widespread in communities of three low-income countries, and underlines the challenges posed by Kp colonization to the control of antimicrobial resistance.

BackgroundSevere bacterial infections (SBIs) are a leading cause of neonatal deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, most data came from hospitals, which do not include neonates who did not seek care or were treated outside the hospital. Studies from the community are scarce, and few among those available were conducted with high-quality microbiological techniques. The burden of SBI at the community level is therefore largely unknown. We aimed here to describe the incidence, etiology, risk factors, and antibiotic resistance profiles of community-acquired neonatal SBI in 3 LMICs.Methods and findingsThe BIRDY study is a prospective multicentric community-based mother and child cohort study and was conducted in both urban and rural areas in Madagascar (2012 to 2018), Cambodia (2014 to 2018), and Senegal (2014 to 2018). All pregnant women within a geographically defined population were identified and enrolled. Their neonates were actively followed from birth to 28 days to document all episodes of SBI. A total of 3,858 pregnant women (2,273 (58.9%) in Madagascar, 814 (21.1%) in Cambodia, and 771 (20.0%) in Senegal) were enrolled in the study, and, of these, 31.2% were primigravidae. Women enrolled in the urban sites represented 39.6% (900/2,273), 45.5% (370/814), and 61.9% (477/771), and those enrolled in the rural sites represented 60.4% (1,373/2,273), 54.5% (444/814), and 38.1% (294/771) of the total in Madagascar, Cambodia, and Senegal, respectively. Among the 3,688 recruited newborns, 49.6% were male and 8.7% were low birth weight (LBW). The incidence of possible severe bacterial infection (pSBI; clinical diagnosis based on WHO guidelines of the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness) was 196.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 176.5 to 218.2], 110.1 [88.3 to 137.3], and 78.3 [59.5 to 103] per 1,000 live births in Madagascar, Cambodia, and Senegal, respectively. The incidence of pSBI differed between urban and rural sites in all study countries. In Madagascar, we estimated an incidence of 161.0 pSBI per 1,000 live births [133.5 to 194] in the urban site and 219.0 [192.6 to 249.1] pSBI per 1,000 live births in the rural site (p = 0.008). In Cambodia, estimated incidences were 141.1 [105.4 to 189.0] and 85.3 [61.0 to 119.4] pSBI per 1,000 live births in urban and rural sites, respectively (p = 0.025), while in Senegal, we estimated 103.6 [76.0 to 141.2] pSBI and 41.5 [23.0 to 75.0] pSBI per 1,000 live births in urban and rural sites, respectively (p = 0.006). The incidences of culture-confirmed SBI were 15.2 [10.6 to 21.8], 6.5 [2.7 to 15.6], and 10.2 [4.8 to 21.3] per 1,000 live births in Madagascar, Cambodia, and Senegal, respectively, with no difference between urban and rural sites in each country. The great majority of early-onset infections occurred during the first 3 days of life (72.7%). The 3 main pathogens isolated were Klebsiella spp. (11/45, 24.4%), Escherichia coli (10/45, 22.2%), and Staphylococcus spp. (11/45, 24.4%). Among the 13 gram-positive isolates, 5 were resistant to gentamicin, and, among the 29 gram-negative isolates, 13 were resistant to gentamicin, with only 1 E. coli out of 10 sensitive to ampicillin. Almost one-third of the isolates were resistant to both first-line drugs recommended for the management of neonatal sepsis (ampicillin and gentamicin). Overall, 38 deaths occurred among neonates with SBI (possible and culture-confirmed SBI together). LBW and foul-smelling amniotic fluid at delivery were common risk factors for early pSBI in all 3 countries. A main limitation of the study was the lack of samples from a significant proportion of infants with pBSI including 35 neonatal deaths. Without these samples, bacterial infection and resistance profiles could not be confirmed.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed a high incidence of neonatal SBI, particularly in the first 3 days of life, in the community of 3 LMICs. The current treatment for the management of neonatal infection is hindered by antimicrobial resistance. Our findings suggest that microbiological diagnosis of SBI remains a challenge in these settings and support more research on causes of neonatal death and the implementation of early interventions (e.g., follow-up of at-risk newborns during the first days of life) to decrease the burden of neonatal SBI and associated mortality and help achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.

We compared extended-spectrum β-lactamase–producing Escherichia coli isolates from meat and fish, gut-colonized women, and infected patients in Cambodia. Nearly half of isolates from women were phylogenetically related to food-origin isolates; a subset had identical multilocus sequence types, extended-spectrum β-lactamase types, and antimicrobial resistance patterns. Eating sun-dried poultry may be an exposure route.

Antimicrobial resistance is a global public health concern, at least partly due to the misuse of antibiotics. The increasing prevalence of antibiotic-resistant infections in the community has shifted at-risk populations into the general population. Numerous case–control studies attempt to better understand the link between antibiotic use and antibiotic-resistant community-onset infections. We review the designs of such studies, focusing on community-onset bloodstream and urinary tract infections. We highlight their methodological heterogeneity in the key points related to the antibiotic exposure, the population and design. We show the impact of this heterogeneity on study results, through the example of extended-spectrum β-lactamases producing Enterobacteriaceae. Finally, we emphasize the need for the greater standardization of such studies and discuss how the definition of a pathophysiological hypothesis specific to the bacteria–resistance pair studied is an important prerequisite to clarify the design of future studies.

Severe bacterial infections are a leading cause of death among neonates in low-income countries, which harbor several factors leading to emergence and spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria. Low-income countries should prioritize interventions to decrease neonatal infections; however, data are scarce, specifically from the community. To assess incidence, etiologies, and antimicrobial drug–resistance patterns of neonatal infections, during 2012–2014, we conducted a community-based prospective investigation of 981 newborns in rural and urban areas of Madagascar. The incidence of culture-confirmed severe neonatal infections was high: 17.7 cases/1,000 live births. Most (75%) occurred during the first week of life. The most common (81%) bacteria isolated were gram-negative. The incidence rate for multidrug-resistant neonatal infection was 7.7 cases/1,000 live births. In Madagascar, interventions to improve prevention, early diagnosis, and management of bacterial infections in neonates should be prioritized.

Abstract Background Host-level influenza virus–respiratory pathogen interactions are often reported. Although the exact biological mechanisms involved remain unelucidated, secondary bacterial infections are known to account for a large part of the influenza-associated burden, during seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. Those interactions probably impact the microorganisms’ transmission dynamics and the influenza public health toll. Mathematical models have been widely used to examine influenza epidemics and the public health impact of control measures. However, most influenza models overlooked interaction phenomena and ignored other co-circulating pathogens. Methods Herein, we describe a novel agent-based model (ABM) of influenza transmission during interaction with another respiratory pathogen. The interacting microorganism can persist in the population year round (endemic type, e.g. respiratory bacteria) or cause short-term annual outbreaks (epidemic type, e.g. winter respiratory viruses). The agent-based framework enables precise formalization of the pathogens’ natural histories and complex within-host phenomena. As a case study, this ABM is applied to the well-known influenza virus–pneumococcus interaction, for which several biological mechanisms have been proposed. Different mechanistic hypotheses of interaction are simulated and the resulting virus-induced pneumococcal infection (PI) burden is assessed. Results This ABM generates realistic data for both pathogens in terms of weekly incidences of PI cases, carriage rates, epidemic size and epidemic timing. Notably, distinct interaction hypotheses resulted in different transmission patterns and led to wide variations of the associated PI burden. Interaction strength was also of paramount importance: when influenza increased pneumococcus acquisition, 4–27% of the PI burden during the influenza season was attributable to influenza depending on the interaction strength. Conclusions This open-source ABM provides new opportunities to investigate influenza interactions from a theoretical point of view and could easily be extended to other pathogens. It provides a unique framework to generate in silico data for different scenarios and thereby test mechanistic hypotheses.

The interaction among multiple microbial strains affects the spread of infectious diseases and the efficacy of interventions. Genomic tools have made it increasingly easy to observe pathogenic strains diversity, but the best interpretation of such diversity has remained difficult because of relationships with host and environmental factors. Here, we focus on host-to-host contact behavior and study how it changes populations of pathogens in a minimal model of multi-strain interaction. We simulated a population of identical strains competing by mutual exclusion and spreading on a dynamical network of hosts according to a stochastic susceptible-infectious-susceptible model. We computed ecological indicators of diversity and dominance in strain populations for a collection of networks illustrating various properties found in real-world examples. Heterogeneities in the number of contacts among hosts were found to reduce diversity and increase dominance by making the repartition of strains among infected hosts more uneven, while strong community structure among hosts increased strain diversity. We found that the introduction of strains associated with hosts entering and leaving the system led to the highest pathogenic richness at intermediate turnover levels. These results were finally illustrated using the spread of Staphylococcus aureus in a long-term health-care facility where close proximity interactions and strain carriage were collected simultaneously. We found that network structural and temporal properties could account for a large part of the variability observed in strain diversity. These results show how stochasticity and network structure affect the population ecology of pathogens and warn against interpreting observations as unambiguous evidence of epidemiological differences between strains.

Antibiotic-resistance of hospital-acquired infections is a major public health issue. The worldwide emergence and diffusion of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae, including Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-KP), is of particular concern. Preventing their nosocomial spread requires understanding their transmission. Using Close Proximity Interactions (CPIs), measured by wearable sensors, and weekly ESBL-EC-and ESBL-KP-carriage data, we traced their possible transmission paths among 329 patients in a 200-bed long-term care facility over 4 months. Based on phenotypically defined resistance profiles to 12 antibiotics only, new bacterial acquisitions were tracked. Extending a previously proposed statistical method, the CPI network's ability to support observed incident-colonization episodes of ESBL-EC and ESBL-KP was tested. Finally, mathematical modeling based on our findings assessed the effect of several infection-control measures. A potential infector was identified in the CPI network for 80% (16/20) of ESBL-KP acquisition episodes. The lengths of CPI paths between ESBL-KP incident cases and their potential infectors were shorter than predicted by chance (P = 0.02), indicating that CPI-network relationships were consistent with dissemination. Potential ESBL-EC infectors were identified for 54% (19/35) of the acquisitions, with longer-than-expected lengths of CPI paths. These contrasting results yielded differing impacts of infection control scenarios, with contact reduction interventions proving less effective for ESBL-EC than for ESBL-KP. These results highlight the widely variable transmission patterns among ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae species. CPI networks supported ESBL-KP, but not ESBL-EC spread. These outcomes could help design more specific surveillance and control strategies to prevent in-hospital Enterobacteriaceae dissemination.

Data of next-generation sequencing (NGS) and their analysis have been facilitating advances in our understanding of microbial ecosystems such as human gut microbiota. However, inference of microbial interactions occurring within an ecosystem is still a challenge mainly due to sequencing data (e.g., 16S rDNA sequences) providing relative abundance of microbes instead of absolute cell count. In order to describe growtth dynamics of microbial communities and estimate the involved microbial interactions, we introduce a procedure by integrating generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, forward stepwise regression and bootstrap aggregation. First, we successfully identify experimentally confirmed microbial interactions based on relative abundance data of a cheese microbial community. Then, we apply the procedure to time-series of 16S rDNA sequences of gut microbiomes of children who were progressing to Type 1 diabetes (T1D progressors), and compare their gut microbial interactions to a healthy control group. Our results suggest that the number of inferred microbial interactions increased over time during the first 3 years of life. More microbial interactions are found in the gut flora of healthy children than that of T1D progressors. The inhibitory effects from Actinobacteria and Bacilli to Bacteroidia, from Bacteroidia to Clostridia, and the beneficial effect from Clostridia to Bacteroidia are shared between healthy children and T1D progressors. An inhibition of Clostridia by Gammaproteobacteria is found in healthy children that maintains through their first 3 years of life. This suppression appears in T1D progressors during the first year of life, which transforms to a commensalism relationship at the age of 3 years old. Gammaproteobacteria is found exerting an inhibition on Bacteroidia in the T1D progressors, which is not identified in the healthy controls.

In low and middle income countries (LMICs), where the burden of neonatal sepsis is the highest, the spread of extended spectrum beta-lactamase-producing enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) in the community, potentially contributing to the neonatal mortality, is a public health concern. Data regarding the acquisition of ESBL-PE during the neonatal period are scarce. The routes of transmission are not well defined and particularly the possible key role played by pregnant women. This study aimed to understand the neonatal acquisition of ESBL-PE in the community in Madagascar. The study was conducted in urban and semi-rural areas. Newborns were included at birth and followed-up during their first month of life. Maternal stool samples at delivery and six stool samples in each infant were collected to screen for ESBL-PE. A Cox proportional hazards model was performed to identify factors associated with the first ESBL-PE acquisition. The incidence rate of ESBL-PE acquisition was 10.4 cases/1000 newborn-days [95% CI: 8.0-13.4 cases per 1000 newborn-days]. Of the 83 ESBL-PE isolates identified, Escherichia coli was the most frequent species (n = 28, 34.1%), followed by Klebsiella pneumoniae (n = 20, 24.4%). Cox multivariate analysis showed that independent risk factors for ESBL-PE acquisition were low birth weight (adjusted Hazard-ratio (aHR) = 2.7, 95% CI [1.2; 5.9]), cesarean-section, (aHR = 3.4, 95% CI [1.7; 7.1]) and maternal use of antibiotics at delivery (aHR = 2.2, 95% CI [1.1; 4.5]). Our results confirm that mothers play a significant role in the neonatal acquisition of ESBL-PE. In LMICs, public health interventions during pregnancy should be reinforced to avoid unnecessary caesarean section, unnecessary antibiotic use at delivery and low birth weight newborns.

ABSTRACT Community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) was recognized worldwide during the 1990s; in less than a decade, several genetically distinct CA-MRSA lineages carrying Panton-Valentine leukocidin genes have emerged on every continent. Most notably, in the United States, the sequence type 18-IV (ST8-IV) clone known as USA300 has become highly prevalent, outcompeting methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) and other MRSA strains in both community and hospital settings. CA-MRSA bacteria are much less prevalent in Europe, where the European ST80-IV European CA-MRSA clone, USA300 CA-MRSA strains, and other lineages, such as ST22-IV, coexist. The question that arises is whether the USA300 CA-MRSA present in Europe (i) was imported once or on very few occasions, followed by a broad geographic spread, anticipating an increased prevalence in the future, or (ii) derived from multiple importations with limited spreading success. In the present study, we applied whole-genome sequencing to a collection of French USA300 CA-MRSA strains responsible for sporadic cases and micro-outbreaks over the past decade and United States ST8 MSSA and MRSA isolates. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the population structure of the French isolates is the product of multiple introductions dating back to the onset of the USA300 CA-MRSA clone in North America. Coalescent-based demography of the USA300 lineage shows that a strong expansion occurred during the 1990s concomitant with the acquisition of the arginine catabolic mobile element and antibiotic resistance, followed by a sharp decline initiated around 2008, reminiscent of the rise-and-fall pattern previously observed in the ST80 lineage. A future expansion of the USA300 lineage in Europe is therefore very unlikely. IMPORTANCE To trace the origin, evolution, and dissemination pattern of the USA300 CA-MRSA clone in France, we sequenced a collection of strains of this lineage from cases reported in France in the last decade and compared them with 431 ST8 strains from the United States. We determined that the French CA-MRSA USA300 sporadic and micro-outbreak isolates resulted from multiple independent introductions of the USA300 North American lineage. At a global level, in the transition from an MSSA lineage to a successful CA-MRSA clone, it first became resistant to multiple antibiotics and acquired the arginine catabolic mobile element and subsequently acquired resistance to fluoroquinolones, and these two steps were associated with a dramatic demographic expansion. This expansion was followed by the current stabilization and expected decline of this lineage. These findings highlight the significance of horizontal gene acquisitions and point mutations in the success of such disseminated clones and illustrate their cyclic and sporadic life cycle.

Close proximity interactions (CPIs) measured by wireless electronic devices are increasingly used in epidemiological models. However, no evidence supports that electronically collected CPIs inform on the contacts leading to transmission. Here, we analyzed Staphylococcus aureus carriage and CPIs recorded simultaneously in a long-term care facility for 4 months in 329 patients and 261 healthcare workers to test this hypothesis. In the broad diversity of isolated S. aureus strains, 173 transmission events were observed between participants. The joint analysis of carriage and CPIs showed that CPI paths linking incident cases to other individuals carrying the same strain (i.e. possible infectors) had fewer intermediaries than predicted by chance (P < 0.001), a feature that simulations showed to be the signature of transmission along CPIs. Additional analyses revealed a higher dissemination risk between patients via healthcare workers than via other patients. In conclusion, S. aureus transmission was consistent with contacts defined by electronically collected CPIs, illustrating their potential as a tool to control hospital-acquired infections and help direct surveillance.

Drug resistance in fecal bacteria was high in Wayampis American Indians who did not take antibacterial agents and were not hospitalized for 1 year. In Amerindians, an isolated, traditional community in French Guyana, antibacterial use was 0.64 treatments per person per year. Hospitalization rate was 6.1% per year. Antibacterial drug–resistant bacteria can spread in persons who are not taking these agents.

We prospectively studied 298 patients with cystic fibrosis (mean age 11.3 years; range 2 months to 32 years; sex ratio, 0.47) for nontuberculous mycobacteria in respiratory samples from January 1, 1996, to December 31, 1999. Mycobacterium abscessus was by far the most prevalent nontuberculous mycobacterium: 15 patients (6 male, 9 female; mean age 11.9 years; range 2.5–22 years) had at least one positive sample for this microorganism (versus 6 patients positive for M. avium complex), including 10 with >3 positive samples (versus 3 patients for M. avium complex). The M. abscessus isolates from 14 patients were typed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis: each of the 14 patients harbored a unique strain, ruling out a common environmental reservoir or person-to-person transmission. Water samples collected in the cystic fibrosis center were negative for M. abscessus. This major mycobacterial pathogen in children and teenagers with cystic fibrosis does not appear to be acquired nosocomially.

BackgroundPrescribing of antibiotics for upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) varies substantially in primary care.ObjectivesTo describe and compare antibiotic and antipyretic/anti-inflammatory drugs use, URTI symptoms' resolution and occurrence of potentially-associated infections in patients seeking care from general practitioners (GPs) who exclusively prescribe conventional medications (GP-CM), regularly prescribe homeopathy within a mixed practice (GP-Mx), or are certified homeopathic GPs (GP-Ho).MethodThe EPI3 survey was a nationwide population-based study of a representative sample of 825 GPs and their patients in France (2007-2008). GP recruitment was stratified by self-declared homeopathic prescribing preferences. Adults and children with confirmed URTI were asked to participate in a standardized telephone interview at inclusion, one-, three- and twelve-month follow up. Study outcomes included medication consumption, URTI symptoms' resolution and potentially-associated infections (sinusitis or otitis media/externa) as reported by patients. Analyses included calibration to account for non-respondents and groups were compared using multivate analyses adjusting for baseline differences with a propensity score.Results518 adults and children with URTI (79.3% rhinopharyngitis) were included (36.9% response rate comparable between groups). As opposed to GP-CM patients, patients in the GP-Ho group showed significantly lower consumption of antibiotics (Odds ratio (OR) = 0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27-0.68) and antipyretic/anti-inflammatory drugs (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.38-0.76) with similar evolution in related symptoms (OR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.64-2.10). An excess of potentially-associated infections (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 0.90-3.20) was observed in the GP-Ho group (not statistically significant). No difference was found between GP-CM and GP-Mx patients.ConclusionPatients who chose to consult GPs certified in homeopathy used less antibiotics and antipyretic/anti-inflammatory drugs for URTI than those seen by GPs prescribing conventional medications. No difference was observed in patients consulting GPs within mixed-practice. A non-statistically significant excess was estimated through modelling for associated infections in the GP-Ho group and needs to be further studied.

Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequently reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an EBLV-1-transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995-2011 serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the system during the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistence mechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 could not be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this species serves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol's method revealed that following the rate of autumn-winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii's incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectious period length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence.

BackgroundIn France, the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza epidemic occurred between September 2009 and January 2010. Sparking widespread controversy, it was intensely reported in the media. Despite therapeutic inefficacy, antibiotic consumption and viral respiratory infections are positively correlated, particularly in France, where antibiotic overconsumption is well-known. We first determined the period when media coverage was high, and then compared, during this period, observed outpatient antibiotic consumption to estimated outpatient antibiotic consumption "without media attention".Materials and methodsTO EVALUATE MEDIA COVERAGE, TWO ONLINE DATABASES WERE CONSULTED: Factiva and Europresse. To quantify outpatient antibiotic consumption, we used data on reimbursements of outpatient systemic antibiotics from the computerized databases of the two main National Health Insurance agencies. Influenza-like syndromes data came from the French GPs Sentinelles Network. Weekly time-series of antibiotic consumption were modeled by autoregressive moving-average models with exogenous inputs and interventions. Analyses were computed for the entire series and by age group (0-5, 6-15, 16-60, and >60 years).ResultsMedia coverage was intense between April 2009 and January 2010. No effect on total outpatient antibiotic consumption was observed during the whole mediatic period. However, during the epidemic in France (September 2009-January 2010), we found an antibiotic underconsumption for the entire series, 0-5 and >60 years. Additionally, at the beginning of the pandemic, when cases were still outside France (June 2009-August 2009), we found an antibiotic overconsumption for patients >16 years.ConclusionThe early period of A(H1N1) virus circulation compared with seasonal influenza or an overdeclaration of ILS cases might explain the antibiotic underconsumption observed during the period of active A(H1N1) virus transmission in France. At the pandemic onset, when uncertainty was high, the overconsumption observed for individuals >16 years might have been caused by alarmist media reporting. Additional analyses are needed to understand the determinants of antibiotic consumption during this period.

Infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria are a major concern in hospitals. Current infection-control practices legitimately focus on hygiene and appropriate use of antibiotics. However, little is known about the intrinsic abilities of some bacterial strains to cause outbreaks. They can be measured at a population level by the pathogen's transmission rate, i.e. the rate at which the pathogen is transmitted from colonized hosts to susceptible hosts, or its reproduction number, counting the number of secondary cases per infected/colonized host. We collected data covering a 20-month surveillance period for carriage of multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (MDRAB) in a surgery ward. All isolates were subjected to molecular fingerprinting, and a cluster analysis of profiles was performed to identify clonal groups. We then applied stochastic transmission models to infer transmission rates of MDRAB and each MDRAB clone. Molecular fingerprinting indicated that 3 clonal complexes spread in the ward. A first model, not accounting for different clones, quantified the level of in-ward cross-transmission, with an estimated transmission rate of 0.03/day (95% credible interval [0.012-0.049]) and a single-admission reproduction number of 0.61 [0.30-1.02]. The second model, accounting for different clones, suggested an enhanced transmissibility of clone 3 (transmission rate 0.047/day [0.018-0.091], with a single-admission reproduction number of 0.81 [0.30-1.56]). Clones 1 and 2 had comparable transmission rates (respectively, 0.016 [0.001-0.045], 0.014 [0.001-0.045]). The method used is broadly applicable to other nosocomial pathogens, as long as surveillance data and genotyping information are available. Building on these results, more epidemic clones could be identified, and could lead to follow-up studies dissecting the functional basis for variation in transmissibility of MDRAB lineages.

BackgroundHeterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication after central nervous system (CNS) damage but has seldom been studied. We aimed to investigate features of HO for the first time in a large sample and the rate of early recurrence of HO in terms of the time of surgery.Methodology/principal findingsWe retrospectively analyzed data from an anonymous prospective survey of patients undergoing surgery between May 1993 and November 2009 in our institution for troublesome HO related to acquired neurological disease. Demographic and HO characteristics and neurological etiologies were recorded. For 357 consecutive patients, we collected data on 539 first surgeries for HO (129 surgeries for multiple sites). During the follow-up, recurrences requiring another surgery appeared in 31 cases (5.8% [31/539]; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.8%-7.8%; 27 patients). Most HO requiring surgery occurred after traumatic brain injury (199 patients [55.7%]), then spinal cord injury (86 [24.0%]), stroke (42 [11.8%]) and cerebral anoxia (30 [8.6%]). The hip was the primary site of HO (328 [60.9%]), then the elbow (115 [21.3%]), knee (77 [14.3%]) and shoulder (19 [3.5%]). For all patients, 181 of the surgeries were performed within the first year after the CNS damage, without recurrence of HO. Recurrence was not associated with etiology (p = 0.46), sex (p = 1.00), age at CNS damage (p = 0.2), multisite localization (p = 0.34), or delay to surgery (p = 0.7).Conclusions/significanceIn patients with CNS damage, troublesome HO and recurrence occurs most frequently after traumatic brain injury and appears frequently in the hip and elbow. Early surgery for HO is not a factor of recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Imported cases threaten rabies reemergence in rabies-free areas. During 2000-2005, five dog and one human rabies cases were imported into France, a rabies-free country since 2001. The Summer 2004 event led to unprecedented media warnings by the French Public Health Director. We investigated medical practice evolution following the official elimination of rabies in 2001; impact of subsequent episodic rabies importations and national newspaper coverage on demand for and delivery of antirabies prophylaxis; regular transmission of epidemiological developments within the French Antirabies Medical Center (ARMC) network; and ARMC discussions on indications of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (RPEP). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Annual data collected by the National Reference Center for Rabies NRCR (1989-2006) and the exhaustive database (2000-2005) of 56 ARMC were analyzed. Weekly numbers of patients consulting at ARMC and their RPEP- and antirabies-immunoglobulin (ARIG) prescription rates were determined. Autoregressive integrated moving-average modeling and regression with autocorrelated errors were applied to examine how 2000-2005 episodic rabies events and their related national newspaper coverage affected demand for and delivery of RPEP. A slight, continuous decline of rabies-dedicated public health facility attendance was observed from 2000 to 2004. Then, during the Summer 2004 event, patient consultations and RPEP and ARIG prescriptions increased by 84%, 19.7% and 43.4%, respectively. Moreover, elevated medical resource use persisted in 2005, despite communication efforts, without any secondary human or animal case. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrated appropriate responsiveness to reemerging rabies cases and effective newspaper reporting, as no secondary case occurred. However, the ensuing demand on medical resources had immediate and long-lasting effects on rabies-related public health resources and expenses. Henceforth, when facing such an event, decision-makers must anticipate the broad impact of their media communications to counter the emerging risk on maintaining an optimal public health organization and implement a post-crisis communication strategy.

BackgroundOveruse of antibiotics is the main force driving the emergence and dissemination of bacterial resistance in the community. France consumes more antibiotics and has the highest rate of beta-lactam resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae than any other European country. In 2001, the government initiated "Keep Antibiotics Working"; the program's main component was a campaign entitled "Les antibiotiques c'est pas automatique" ("Antibiotics are not automatic") launched in 2002. We report the evaluation of this campaign by analyzing the evolution of outpatient antibiotic use in France 2000-2007, according to therapeutic class and geographic and age-group patterns.Methods and findingsThis evaluation is based on 2000-2007 data, including 453,407,458 individual reimbursement data records and incidence of flu-like syndromes (FLSs). Data were obtained from the computerized French National Health Insurance database and provided by the French Sentinel Network. As compared to the preintervention period (2000-2002), the total number of antibiotic prescriptions per 100 inhabitants, adjusted for FLS frequency during the winter season, changed by -26.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -33.5% to -19.6%) over 5 years. The decline occurred in all 22 regions of France and affected all antibiotic therapeutic classes except quinolones. The greatest decrease, -35.8% (95% CI -48.3% to -23.2%), was observed among young children aged 6-15 years. A significant change of -45% in the relationship between the incidence of flu-like syndromes and antibiotic prescriptions was observed.ConclusionsThe French national campaign was associated with a marked reduction of unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, particularly in children. This study provides a useful method for assessing public-health strategies designed to reduce antibiotic use.

BackgroundDespite increasingly frequent bacterial resistance to antibiotics, antibacterial innovation is rare. Ketolides constitute one of the very few new antibiotic classes active against Streptococcus pneumoniae developed during the last 25 years. Their mechanism of action resembles that of macrolides, but they are unaffected by common resistance mechanisms. However, cross-resistance to ketolides has been observed in some macrolide-resistant strains. We examined how new antibiotic exposure may affect overall pneumococcal resistance patterns in the population. The aims of this study were to assess the potential dissemination of newly emerged resistances and to control the selection of strains already multiresistant to existing antimicrobials.Methodology/principal findingsWe developed an age-structured population model for S. pneumoniae transmission in a human community exposed to heptavalent vaccine, and beta-lactams, macrolides and ketolides. The dynamics of intra-individual selection of resistant strains under antibiotic exposure and interindividual transmission were simulated, with antibiotic-specific resistance mechanisms defining the path to co-resistances and cross-resistances, and parameters concerning the French situation. Results of this simulation study suggest that new antibiotic consumption could markedly slow the diffusion of multiresistant strains. Wider use was associated with slower progression of multiresistance. When ketolides were prescribed to all ages, resistance to them reached 10% after >15 years, while it took >40 years when they were prescribed only to adults. In the scenario according to which new antibiotics totally replaced former antimicrobials, the beta-lactam resistance rate was limited at 70%.ConclusionsIn a context of widespread vaccination and rational use of antibiotics, innovative antibiotic, prescribed to all age groups, may have an added impact on multiresistant-strain dissemination in the population.

BACKGROUND: The Infectious Diseases Society of America published in 2000 practical guidelines for the management of cryptococcosis. However, treatment strategies have not been fully validated in the various clinical settings due to exclusion criteria during therapeutic trials. We assessed here the optimal therapeutic strategies for severe cryptococcosis using the observational prospective CryptoA/D study after analyzing routine clinical care of cryptococcosis in university or tertiary care hospitals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Patients were enrolled if at least one culture grew positive with Cryptococcus neoformans. Control of sterilization was warranted 2 weeks (Wk2) and 3 months (Mo3) after antifungal therapy onset. 208 HIV-positive or -negative adult patients were analyzed. Treatment failure (death or mycological failure) at Wk2 and Mo3 was the main outcome measured. Combination of amphotericin B+flucytosine (AMB+5FC) was the best regimen for induction therapy in patients with meningoencephalitis and in all patients with high fungal burden and abnormal neurology. In those patients, treatment failure at Wk2 was 26% in the AMB+5FC group vs. 56% with any other treatments (p

BACKGROUND: Despite the dramatic decline in the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) observed since the introduction of conjugate vaccination, it is feared that several factors may undermine the future effectiveness of the vaccines. In particular, pathogenic pneumococci may switch their capsular types and evade vaccine-conferred immunity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we first review the literature and summarize the available epidemiological data on capsular switch for S. pneumoniae. We estimate the weekly probability that a persistently carried strain may switch its capsule from four studies, totalling 516 children and 6 years of follow-up, at 1.5x10(-3)/week [4.6x10(-5)-4.8x10(-3)/week]. There is not enough power to assess an increase in this frequency in vaccinated individuals. Then, we use a mathematical model of pneumococcal transmission to quantify the impact of capsular switch on the incidence of IPD in a vaccinated population. In this model, we investigate a wide range of values for the frequency of vaccine-selected capsular switch. Predictions show that, with vaccine-independent switching only, IPD incidence in children should be down by 48% 5 years after the introduction of the vaccine with high coverage. Introducing vaccine-selected capsular switch at a frequency up to 0.01/week shows little effect on this decrease; yearly, at most 3 excess cases of IPD per 10(6) children might occur due to switched pneumococcal strains. CONCLUSIONS: Based on all available data and model predictions, the existence of capsular switch by itself should not impact significantly the efficacy of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on IPD incidence. This optimistic result should be tempered by the fact that the selective pressure induced by the vaccine is currently increasing along with vaccine coverage worldwide; continued surveillance of pneumococcal populations remains of the utmost importance, in particular during clinical trials of the new conjugate vaccines.