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Triadic motifs are the smallest building blocks of higher-order interactions in complex networks and can be detected as over-occurrences with respect to null models with only pair-wise interactions. Recently, the motif structure of production networks has attracted attention in light of its possible role in the propagation of economic shocks. However, its characterization at the level of individual commodities is still poorly understood. Here we analyze both binary and weighted triadic motifs in the Dutch inter-industry production network disaggregated at the level of 187 commodity groups, which Statistics Netherlands reconstructed from National Accounts registers, surveys and known empirical data. We introduce appropriate null models that filter out node heterogeneity and the strong effects of link reciprocity and find that, while the aggregate network that overlays all products is characterized by a multitude of triadic motifs, most single-product layers feature no significant motif, and roughly $85\%$ of the layers feature only two motifs or less. This result paves the way for identifying a simple `triadic fingerprint' of each commodity and for reconstructing most product-specific networks from partial information in a pairwise fashion by controlling for their reciprocity structure. We discuss how these results can help statistical bureaus identify fine-grained information in structural analyses of interest for policymakers., Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures

At least two, different approaches to define and solve statistical models for the analysis of economic systems exist: the typical, econometric one, interpreting the Gravity Model specification as the expected link weight of an arbitrary probability distribution, and the one rooted into statistical physics, constructing maximum-entropy distributions constrained to satisfy certain network properties. In a couple of recent, companion papers they have been successfully integrated within the framework induced by the constrained minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence: specifically, two, broad classes of models have been devised, i.e. the integrated and the conditional ones, defined by different, probabilistic rules to place links, load them with weights and turn them into proper, econometric prescriptions. Still, the recipes adopted by the two approaches to estimate the parameters entering into the definition of each model differ. In econometrics, a likelihood that decouples the binary and weighted parts of a model, treating a network as deterministic, is typically maximised; to restore its random character, two alternatives exist: either solving the likelihood maximisation on each configuration of the ensemble and taking the average of the parameters afterwards or taking the average of the likelihood function and maximising the latter one. The difference between these approaches lies in the order in which the operations of averaging and maximisation are taken - a difference that is reminiscent of the quenched and annealed ways of averaging out the disorder in spin glasses. The results of the present contribution, devoted to comparing these recipes in the case of continuous, conditional network models, indicate that the annealed estimation recipe represents the best alternative to the deterministic one., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures

In the study of economic networks, econometric approaches interpret the traditional Gravity Model specification as the expected link weight coming from a probability distribution whose functional form can be chosen arbitrarily, while statistical-physics approaches construct maximum-entropy distributions of weighted graphs, constrained to satisfy a given set of measurable network properties. In a recent, companion paper, we integrated the two approaches and applied them to the World Trade Web, i.e. the network of international trade among world countries. While the companion paper dealt only with discrete-valued link weights, the present paper extends the theoretical framework to continuous-valued link weights. In particular, we construct two broad classes of maximum-entropy models, namely the integrated and the conditional ones, defined by different criteria to derive and combine the probabilistic rules for placing links and loading them with weights. In the integrated models, both rules follow from a single, constrained optimization of the continuous Kullback-Leibler divergence; in the conditional models, the two rules are disentangled and the functional form of the weight distribution follows from a conditional, optimization procedure. After deriving the general functional form of the two classes, we turn each of them into a proper family of econometric models via a suitable identification of the econometric function relating the corresponding, expected link weights to macroeconomic factors. After testing the two classes of models on World Trade Web data, we discuss their strengths and weaknesses., Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

The World Trade Web (WTW) is the network of international trade relationships among world countries. Characterizing both the local link weights (observed trade volumes) and the global network structure (large-scale topology) of the WTW via a single model is still an open issue. While the traditional Gravity Model (GM) successfully replicates the observed trade volumes by employing macroeconomic properties such as GDP and geographic distance, it, unfortunately, predicts a fully connected network, thus returning a completely unrealistic topology of the WTW. To overcome this problem, two different classes of models have been introduced in econometrics and statistical physics. Econometric approaches interpret the traditional GM as the expected value of a probability distribution that can be chosen arbitrarily and tested against alternative distributions. Statistical physics approaches construct maximum-entropy probability distributions of (weighted) graphs from a chosen set of measurable structural constraints and test distributions resulting from different constraints. Here we compare and integrate the two approaches by considering a class of maximum-entropy models that can incorporate macroeconomic properties used in standard econometric models. We find that the integrated approach achieves a better performance than the purely econometric one. These results suggest that the maximum-entropy construction can serve as a viable econometric framework wherein extensive and intensive margins can be separately controlled for, by combining topological constraints and dyadic macroeconomic variables., Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables

We study the consensus probability in Voter Model and Invasion Process starting from a seed initial configuration. In the case where the opinions have the same strength or slightly different (weak bias) this function was computed analytically by Sood, Antal and Redner and depends only on the degree of the promoter individual. We check numerically through large scale simulations the above mentioned theory and we find that in the case of strong bias a correlation between the consensus probability and other centrality measures emerge and Sood et al's theory is broken., Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures