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Abstract: Effective biodiversity conservation requires an understanding of the drivers of natural resource use. Few studies, however, have examined how motivations of natural resource users and attributes of local social organizations affect resource extraction over time. We aimed to identify which characteristics of individuals (taboos, food security, resource‐related income), groups (village size, ease of access to education, proximity to park), and institutions (presence of enforcement mechanisms) best predicted use of multiple types of natural resources near a protected area during the past 1.5 years and during respondents’ lifetimes. Data were collected in 2013 via semi‐structured interviews with 360 people across ten villages along the perimeter of Ankarana National Park (northern Madagascar). All recent and lifetime uses of natural resources examined were higher in villages close to the park and for respondents with a history of earning money from extracting natural resources. In addition, individuals with ancestral meat‐related taboos were less likely to have extracted natural resources over their lifetime, while individuals who recently consumed meat were more likely to have extracted natural resources over the past 1.5 years. All other variables were less important in explaining the use of natural resources. The results highlight that some drivers can be consistently important in predicting natural resource use and that simple models can have relatively high explanatory power even in the context of the (sometimes) illegal extraction of five different types of natural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Charismatic species are the main attractor of ecotourists to protected areas, but this narrow interest leads to under-appreciation of other biodiversity as well as cultural values of protected areas. Many protected areas with high conservation value, but little funding, lack charismatic species. Exploring tourists' preferences alternative to charismatic species may help identify ecotourism markets that are more likely to support such areas. We used a choice experiment and latent class model to explore tourists' heterogeneous preference for biodiversity and biodiversity-related activities in South African national parks. We found that tourists' preferences were not restricted to charismatic species, but extended to less charismatic biodiversity, as well as to landscapes. In addition, biodiversity-related activities, such as camping and game drives, the sense of wilderness attached to the place tourists were visiting and accessibility of protected areas, also affected tourists' preferences. Particularly, domestic tourists, as well as more experienced international tourists, were more likely to support initiatives that promote a broader biodiversity experience than charismatic species alone, and were prepared to travel longer distances to do so. Our results reveal new opportunities to promote and support biodiversity conservation at sites where only less charismatic biodiversity is present. In addition, our results may help inform land-use planning based on public preferences for biodiversity conservation, incorporating sense of place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ' Big Five' charismatic megafauna concept is considered key for financial competitiveness of protected areas in South Africa. However, this Western colonial concept is also leading to an underappreciation of wider biodiversity and the recovery of other endangered species. This study assessed the heterogeneity of tourist preferences for big game species in Kwa Zulu- Natal, South Africa, using a choice experiment approach, employing latent class modelling, in order to identify tourists' segments not necessarily drawn to the Big Five. The latent class segmentation identified two segments for both international and national tourists, largely defined by socio-economic characteristics. Less experienced and wealthier tourists were mostly interested in charismatic megafauna, while more experienced, but lower income tourists showed preferences for a broader range of species. Exploring viewing preferences in this way illustrates the potential to realign conservation businesses to achieve biodiversity conservation objectives. In the short term, managing protected areas for the Big Five and other favourite species will continue to deliver significant financial benefits to local stakeholders, but policy makers should consider using financial mechanisms to subsidize conservation actions for less charismatic species and develop the biodiversity base of safari tourism in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined habitat utilization and prey selection by the kestrel Falco tinnunculus in an area of cultivated farmland in Italy, along with field estimates of small mammal abundance. Kestrel males were radiotagged and ranging behaviour and diet were recorded. Kestrels actively selected grasslands both during flight and perching hunting, and most predations were registered in this habitat. The occurrence of small mammals in the diet was significantly different from what was estimated from trapping, indicating that kestrels behaved as selective predators, since microtines were eaten in a greater proportion than their abundance. Microtus savii was preferred more than the common vole Microtus arvalis, whereas soricids were negatively selected. Nevertheless, common voles represented the main component of the kestrels' food niche. Reproductive success was correlated with small mammal availability. This study revealed that the high density of kestrels within the study area is supported by steady grassland management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging tool that could be leveraged to identify the effective conservation solutions demanded by the urgent biodiversity crisis. We present the results of our horizon scan of AI applications likely to significantly benefit biological conservation. An international panel of conservation scientists and AI experts identified 21 key ideas. These included species recognition to uncover 'dark diversity', multimodal models to improve biodiversity loss predictions, monitoring wildlife trade, and addressing human-wildlife conflict. We consider the potential negative impacts of AI adoption, such as AI colonialism and loss of essential conservation skills, and suggest how the conservation field might adapt to harness the benefits of AI while mitigating its risks., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The extinction of species is a multifaceted phenomenon shaped by the complex interplay between biological and socio-cultural factors. Public and academic preferences for different species often play a direct or indirect role in influencing the conservation outlook of these species. The "charisma" of species and other components of biodiversity is often mentioned as an important factor in shaping human preferences, determining both the scope of scientific studies and justifications for such scope. Here, we present a protocol for systematically mapping the use of the concept of "charisma" in relation to biodiversity peer-reviewed academic literature focused on biodiversity conservation., Methods: The search targeting academic peer-reviewed research articles and reviews will be conducted in three publication databases, The Lens, Scopus and Web of Science (Core Collection and SciELO), and will be supplemented by search engine results from Google Scholar. Broad-scope searches will be performed in 3 different languages (English, Portuguese, and Spanish) and article screening will be performed at two stages to ensure the relevance of each entry and consistency amongst reviewers in their use of the defined inclusion criteria. The resulting systematic map of the literature will be summarised by employing a narrative synthesis approach, and through descriptive statistics and analysis of temporal trends., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

The expanding use of community science platforms has led to an exponential increase in biodiversity data in global repositories. Yet, understanding of species distributions remains patchy. Biodiversity data from social media can potentially reduce the global biodiversity knowledge gap. However, practical guidelines and standardized methods for harvesting such data are nonexistent. Following data privacy and protection safeguards, we devised a standardized method for extracting species distribution records from Facebook groups that allow access to their data. It involves 3 steps: group selection, data extraction, and georeferencing the record location. We present how to structure keywords, search for species photographs, and georeference localities for such records. We further highlight some challenges users might face when extracting species distribution data from Facebook and suggest solutions. Following our proposed framework, we present a case study on Bangladesh's biodiversity-a tropical megadiverse South Asian country. We scraped nearly 45,000 unique georeferenced records across 967 species and found a median of 27 records per species. About 12% of the distribution data were for threatened species, representing 27% of all species. We also obtained data for 56 DataDeficient species for Bangladesh. If carefully harvested, social media data can significantly reduce global biodiversity knowledge gaps. Consequently, developing an automated tool to extract and interpret social media biodiversity data is a research priority., (© 2024 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Online digital data from media platforms have the potential to complement biodiversity monitoring efforts. We propose a strategy for integrating these data into current biodiversity datasets in light of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Soriano-Redondo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Citizen science plays a crucial role in helping monitor biodiversity and inform conservation. With the widespread use of smartphones, many people share biodiversity information on social media, but this information is still not widely used in conservation. Focusing on Bangladesh, a tropical megadiverse and mega-populated country, we examined the importance of social media records in conservation decision-making. We collated species distribution records for birds and butterflies from Facebook and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), grouped them into GBIF-only and combined GBIF and Facebook data, and investigated the differences in identifying critical conservation areas. Adding Facebook data to GBIF data improved the accuracy of systematic conservation planning assessments by identifying additional important conservation areas in the northwest, southeast, and central parts of Bangladesh, extending priority conservation areas by 4,000-10,000 km 2 . Community efforts are needed to drive the implementation of the ambitious Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets, especially in megadiverse tropical countries with a lack of reliable and up-to-date species distribution data. We highlight that conservation planning can be enhanced by including available data gathered from social media platforms., (© 2023 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Ongoing biodiversity loss represents the erosion of intrinsic value of living nature, reduces the contributions nature provides to people, and undermines efforts to move towards sustainability. We propose the recognition of quantitative conservation geography as a subfield of conservation science that studies where, when, and what conservation actions could be implemented in order to mitigate threats and promote sustainable people-nature interactions. We outline relevant methods and data needed in quantitative conservation geography. We also discuss the importance of filling information gaps, for example by using emerging technologies and digital data sources, for the further advancement of this subfield. Quantitative conservation geography can help inform the implementation of national and international conservation actions and policy to help stem the global biodiversity crisis., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Social media data are being increasingly used in conservation science to study human-nature interactions. User-generated content, such as images, video, text, and audio, and the associated metadata can be used to assess such interactions. A number of social media platforms provide free access to user-generated social media content. However, similar to any research involving people, scientific investigations based on social media data require compliance with highest standards of data privacy and data protection, even when data are publicly available. Should social media data be misused, the risks to individual users' privacy and well-being can be substantial. We investigated the legal basis for using social media data while ensuring data subjects' rights through a case study based on the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation. The risks associated with using social media data in research include accidental and purposeful misidentification that has the potential to cause psychological or physical harm to an identified person. To collect, store, protect, share, and manage social media data in a way that prevents potential risks to users involved, one should minimize data, anonymize data, and follow strict data management procedure. Risk-based approaches, such as a data privacy impact assessment, can be used to identify and minimize privacy risks to social media users, to demonstrate accountability and to comply with data protection legislation. We recommend that conservation scientists carefully consider our recommendations in devising their research objectives so as to facilitate responsible use of social media data in conservation science research, for example, in conservation culturomics and investigations of illegal wildlife trade online., (© 2021 Society for Conservation Biology.)

Ongoing loss of biological diversity is primarily the result of unsustainable human behavior. Thus, the long-term success of biodiversity conservation depends on a thorough understanding of human-nature interactions. Such interactions are ubiquitous but vary greatly in time and space and are difficult to monitor efficiently at large spatial scales. However, the Information Age also provides new opportunities to better understand human-nature interactions because many aspects of daily life are recorded in a variety of digital formats. The emerging field of conservation culturomics aims to take advantage of digital data sources and methods to study human-nature interactions and thus to provide new tools for studying conservation at relevant temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, technical challenges associated with the identification, access, and analysis of relevant data hamper the wider adoption of culturomics methods. To help overcome these barriers, we propose a conservation culturomics research framework that addresses data acquisition, analysis, and inherent biases. The main sources of culturomic data include web pages, social media, and other digital platforms from which metrics of content and engagement can be obtained. Obtaining raw data from these platforms is usually desirable but requires careful consideration of how to access, store, and prepare the data for analysis. Methods for data analysis include network approaches to explore connections between topics, time-series analysis for temporal data, and spatial modeling to highlight spatial patterns. Outstanding challenges associated with culturomics research include issues of interdisciplinarity, ethics, data biases, and validation. The practical guidance we offer will help conservation researchers and practitioners identify and obtain the necessary data and carry out appropriate analyses for their specific questions, thus facilitating the wider adoption of culturomics approaches for conservation applications., (© 2021 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Digital data are accumulating at unprecedented rates. These contain a lot of information about the natural world, some of which can be used to answer key ecological questions. Here, we introduce iEcology (i.e., internet ecology), an emerging research approach that uses diverse online data sources and methods to generate insights about species distribution over space and time, interactions and dynamics of organisms and their environment, and anthropogenic impacts. We review iEcology data sources and methods, and provide examples of potential research applications. We also outline approaches to reduce potential biases and improve reliability and applicability. As technologies and expertise improve, and costs diminish, iEcology will become an increasingly important means to gain novel insights into the natural world., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Understanding worldwide patterns of human use of sites of international significance for biodiversity conservation is crucial for meeting global conservation targets. However, robust global datasets are scarce. In this study, we used social media data, mined from Flickr and Twitter, geolocated in Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) to assess i) patterns of popularity; ii) relationships of this popularity with geographical and biological variables; and iii) identify sites under high pressure from visitors. IBAs located in Europe and Asia, and in temperate biomes, had the highest density of users. Sites of importance for congregatory species, which were also more accessible, more densely populated and provided more tourism facilities, received higher visitation than did sites richer in bird species. We found 17% of all IBAs assessed to be under very high threat also received high visitation. Our results show in which IBAs enhanced monitoring should be implemented to reduce potential visitation risks to sites of conservation concern for birds, and to harness the potential benefits of tourism for conservation., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Socio-economic changes in Africa have increased pressure on the continent's ecosystems. Most research investigating environmental change has focused on the changing status of specific species or communities and protected areas, but has largely neglected the broad-scale socio-economic conditions underlying environmental degradation. We tested national-scale hypotheses regarding the socio-economic predictors of ecosystem change and degradation across Africa, hypothesizing that human density and economic development increase the likelihood of cumulative environmental damage. Our combined environmental performance rank includes national ecological footprint, proportional species threat, recent deforestation, freshwater removal, livestock density, cropland coverage, and per capita emissions. Countries like Central African Republic, Botswana, Namibia, and Congo have the best relative environmental performance overall. Structural equation models indicate that increasing population density and overall economic activity (per capita gross domestic product corrected for purchasing-power parity) are the most strongly correlated with greater environmental degradation, while greater wealth inequality (Gini index) correlates with better environmental performance. This represents the first Africa-scale assessment of the socio-economic correlates of environmental degradation, and suggests that dedicated family planning to reduce population growth, and economic development that limits agricultural expansion (cf. intensification) are needed to support environmental sustainability.

Overexploitation is one of the main threats to biodiversity, but the intensity of this threat varies geographically. We identified global concentrations, on land and at sea, of 4543 species threatened by unsustainable commercial harvesting. Regions under high-intensity threat (based on accessibility on land and on fishing catch at sea) cover 4.3% of the land and 6.1% of the seas and contain 82% of all species threatened by unsustainable harvesting and >80% of the ranges of Critically Endangered species threatened by unsustainable harvesting. Currently, only 16% of these regions are covered by protected areas on land and just 6% at sea. Urgent actions are needed in these centers of unsustainable harvesting to ensure that use of species is sustainable and to prevent further species' extinctions.

Article impact statement: Machine learning can be used to automatically monitor and assess illegal wildlife trade on social media platforms., (© 2018 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Social media data is increasingly used as a proxy for human activity in different environments, including protected areas, where collecting visitor information is often laborious and expensive, but important for management and marketing. Here, we compared data from Instagram, Twitter and Flickr, and assessed systematically how park popularity and temporal visitor counts derived from social media data perform against high-precision visitor statistics in 56 national parks in Finland and South Africa in 2014. We show that social media activity is highly associated with park popularity, and social media-based monthly visitation patterns match relatively well with the official visitor counts. However, there were considerable differences between platforms as Instagram clearly outperformed Twitter and Flickr. Furthermore, we show that social media data tend to perform better in more visited parks, and should always be used with caution. Based on stakeholder discussions we identified potential reasons why social media data and visitor statistics might not match: the geography and profile of the park, the visitor profile, and sudden events. Overall the results are encouraging in broader terms: Over 60% of the national parks globally have Twitter or Instagram activity, which could potentially inform global nature conservation.

Including threats in spatial conservation prioritization helps identify areas for conservation actions where biodiversity is at imminent risk of extinction. At the global level, an important limitation when identifying spatial priorities for conservation actions is the lack of information on the spatial distribution of threats. Here, we identify spatial conservation priorities under three prominent threats to biodiversity (residential and commercial development, agricultural expansion, and forest loss), which are primary drivers of habitat loss and threaten the persistence of the highest number of species in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, and for which spatial data is available. We first explore how global priority areas for the conservation of vertebrate (mammals, birds, and amphibians) species coded in the Red List as vulnerable to each threat differ spatially. We then identify spatial conservation priorities for all species vulnerable to all threats. Finally, we identify the potentially most threatened areas by overlapping the identified priority areas for conservation with maps for each threat. We repeat the same with four other well-known global conservation priority area schemes, namely Key Biodiversity Areas, Biodiversity Hotspots, the global Protected Area Network, and Wilderness Areas. We find that residential and commercial development directly threatens only about 4% of the global top 17% priority areas for species vulnerable under this threat. However, 50% of the high priority areas for species vulnerable to forest loss overlap with areas that have already experienced some forest loss. Agricultural expansion overlapped with ~20% of high priority areas. Biodiversity Hotspots had the greatest proportion of their total area under direct threat from all threats, while expansion of low intensity agriculture was found to pose an imminent threat to Wilderness Areas under future agricultural expansion. Our results identify areas where limited resources should be allocated to mitigate risks to vertebrate species from habitat loss.

Background: Unprecedented levels of habitat transformation and rapid urbanisation are changing the way individuals interrelate with the natural environment in developing countries with high economic disparities. Although the potential benefit of green environments for mental health has been recognised, population-level evidence to this effect is scarce. We investigated the effect of green living environment in potentially countering incident depression in a nationally representative survey in South Africa., Methods: We used panel data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS). Our study used SA-NIDS data from three waves: wave 1 (2008), wave 2 (2010), and wave 3 (2012). Households were sampled on the basis of a stratified two-stage cluster design. In the first stage, 400 primary sampling units were selected for inclusion. In the second stage, two clusters of 12 dwelling units each were drawn from within each primary sampling unit (or 24 dwelling units per unit). Household and individual adult questionnaires were administered to participants. The main outcome, incident depression (ie, incident cohort of 11 156 study participants without significant depression symptoms at their first entry into SA-NIDS), was assessed in the adult survey via a ten item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; a total score of ten or higher was used as a cutoff to indicate significant depressive symptoms. Each participant was assigned a value for green living space via a satellite-derived normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on the GPS coordinates of their household location., Findings: Overall, we found uneven benefit of NDVI on incident depression among our study participants. Although the green living environment showed limited benefit across the study population as a whole, our final analysis based on logistic regression models showed that higher NDVI was a predictor of lower incident depression among middle-income compared with low-income participants (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·98, 0·97-0·99, p<0·0001), although when this analysis was broken down by race, its positive effect was particularly evident amongst African individuals. Living in rural areas was linked to lower odds of incident depression (aOR 0·71, 0·55-0·92, p=0·011) compared with study participants residing in urban informal areas that often lack formal planning., Interpretation: Our results imply the importance of green environments for mental wellbeing in sub-Saharan African settings experiencing rapid urbanisation, economic and epidemiological transition, reaffirming the need to incorporate environmental services and benefits for sustainable socioeconomic development., Funding: South African Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, and Academy of Finland., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.

Charismatic megafauna are arguably considered the primary attractor of ecotourists to sub-Saharan African protected areas. However, the lack of visitation data across the whole continent has thus far prevented the investigation of whether charismatic species are indeed a key attractor of ecotourists to protected areas. Social media data can now be used for this purpose. We mined data from Instagram, and used generalized linear models with site- and country-level deviations to explore which socio-economic, geographical and biological factors explain social media use in sub-Saharan African protected areas. We found that charismatic species richness did not explain social media usage. On the other hand, protected areas that were more accessible, had sparser vegetation, where human population density was higher, and that were located in wealthier countries, had higher social media use. Interestingly, protected areas with lower richness in non-charismatic species had more users. Overall, our results suggest that more factors than simply charismatic species might explain attractiveness of protected areas, and call for more in-depth content analysis of the posts. With African countries projected to develop further in the near-future, more social media data will become available, and could be used to inform protected area management and marketing.

Unprecedented poaching levels triggered by demand for ivory in Far East Asia are threatening the persistence of African elephant Loxodonta africana . Southern African countries make an important contribution to elephant conservation and could soon become the last stronghold of elephant conservation in Africa. While the ecological factors affecting elephant distribution and densities have extensively been accounted for, there is a need to understand which socioeconomic factors affect elephant numbers in order to prevent conflict over limited space and resources with humans. We used elephant count data from aerial surveys for seven years in a generalized linear model, which accounted for temporal correlation, to investigate the effect of six socioeconomic and ecological variables on the number of elephant at the country level in the Greater Mapungubwe Transfrontier Conservation Area (GMTFCA). Important factors in predicting elephant numbers were the proportion of total land surface under cultivation, human population density and the number of tourists visiting the country. Specifically, elephant numbers were higher where the proportion of total land surface under cultivation was the lowest; where population density was the lowest and where tourist numbers had increased over the years. Our results confirm that human disturbance is affecting elephant numbers, but highlight that the benefits provided by ecotourism could help enhance elephant conservation. While future studies should include larger areas and more detailed data at the site level, we stress that the development of coordinated legislation and policies to improve land-use planning are needed to reduce the impact of increasing human populations and agriculture on elephant., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network.

International pressure to ban trophy hunting is increasing. However, we argue that trophy hunting can be an important conservation tool, provided it can be done in a controlled manner to benefit biodiversity conservation and local people. Where political and governance structures are adequate, trophy hunting can help address the ongoing loss of species., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Complementarity and cost-efficiency are widely used principles for protected area network design. Despite the wide use and robust theoretical underpinnings, their effects on the performance and patterns of priority areas are rarely studied in detail. Here we compare two approaches for identifying the management priority areas inside the global protected area network: 1) a scoring-based approach, used in recently published analysis and 2) a spatial prioritization method, which accounts for complementarity and area-efficiency. Using the same IUCN species distribution data the complementarity method found an equal-area set of priority areas with double the mean species ranges covered compared to the scoring-based approach. The complementarity set also had 72% more species with full ranges covered, and lacked any coverage only for half of the species compared to the scoring approach. Protected areas in our complementarity-based solution were on average smaller and geographically more scattered. The large difference between the two solutions highlights the need for critical thinking about the selected prioritization method. According to our analysis, accounting for complementarity and area-efficiency can lead to considerable improvements when setting management priorities for the global protected area network.

Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological-economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35-year-old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy., (© 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.)

Protected areas are one of the main tools for halting the continuing global biodiversity crisis caused by habitat loss, fragmentation and other anthropogenic pressures. According to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the protected area network should be expanded to at least 17% of the terrestrial world by 2020 (http://www.cbd.int/sp/targets). To maximize conservation outcomes, it is crucial to identify the best expansion areas. Here we show that there is a very high potential to increase protection of ecoregions and vertebrate species by expanding the protected area network, but also identify considerable risk of ineffective outcomes due to land-use change and uncoordinated actions between countries. We use distribution data for 24,757 terrestrial vertebrates assessed under the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) 'red list of threatened species', and terrestrial ecoregions (827), modified by land-use models for the present and 2040, and introduce techniques for global and balanced spatial conservation prioritization. First, we show that with a coordinated global protected area network expansion to 17% of terrestrial land, average protection of species ranges and ecoregions could triple. Second, if projected land-use change by 2040 (ref. 11) takes place, it becomes infeasible to reach the currently possible protection levels, and over 1,000 threatened species would lose more than 50% of their present effective ranges worldwide. Third, we demonstrate a major efficiency gap between national and global conservation priorities. Strong evidence is shown that further biodiversity loss is unavoidable unless international action is quickly taken to balance land-use and biodiversity conservation. The approach used here can serve as a framework for repeatable and quantitative assessment of efficiency, gaps and expansion of the global protected area network globally, regionally and nationally, considering current and projected land-use pressures.

The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes.

The allocation of land to biological diversity conservation competes with other land uses and the needs of society for development, food, and extraction of natural resources. Trade-offs between biological diversity conservation and alternative land uses are unavoidable, given the realities of limited conservation resources and the competing demands of society. We developed a conservation-planning assessment for the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biological diversity hotspot. Our objective was to enhance biological diversity protection while promoting sustainable development and providing spatial guidance in the resolution of potential policy conflicts over priority areas for conservation at risk of transformation. The conservation-planning assessment combined spatial-distribution models for 646 conservation features, spatial economic-return models for 28 alternative land uses, and spatial maps for 4 threats. Nature-based tourism businesses were competitive with other land uses and could provide revenues of >US$60 million/year to local stakeholders and simultaneously help meeting conservation goals for almost half the conservation features in the planning region. Accounting for opportunity costs substantially decreased conflicts between biological diversity, agricultural use, commercial forestry, and mining. Accounting for economic benefits arising from conservation and reducing potential policy conflicts with alternative plans for development can provide opportunities for successful strategies that combine conservation and sustainable development and facilitate conservation action., (© 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.)