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Post–harvest losses (PHL) are particularly critical for developing countries. This is especially evident in Sub-Saharan (SSA) countries, where PHL are estimated to be about 37% of the total food production. Climate is a core determinant of cereal losses, as biodeterioration factors are sensitive to the temperature and humidity. In this paper we analyse to what extent climatic conditions affect PHL. The analysis considers Sub-Saharan countries and focuses on maize production over the period 2000-2020 period. Data on PHL are taken from APHLIS (African Postharvest Losses Information System), which represents a network of cereals and grain experts in SSA countries. Data collected by APHLIS are aimed at improving existing aggregated data on PHL (e.g. FAO data). PHL data quantify the percentage loss for each phase of the post-harvest chain. APHLIS has some unique characteristics, as it provides PHL at the province (Administrative 1 - ADM1) level over time. The main results of our analysis suggest that humidity is the most relevant determinant of PHL in this region. Our results are relevant, especially if we consider the future instability of the climate in this area.

We re-examine the effects of negative weather anomalies during the growing season on the decision to migrate in rural households in five sub-Saharan African countries. To this end we combine a multi-country household panel dataset with high-resolution gridded precipitation data. We find that while the effect of recent adverse weather shocks is on average modest, the cumulative effect of a persistent exposure to droughts over several years leads to a significant increase in the probability to migrate. The results show that more frequent adverse shocks can have more significant and long-lasting consequences in challenging economic environments.

This chapter distinguishes the effects of climatic shocks (droughts), weather (during one year) and climate normals (long-term average weather conditions) on Kenyan smallholder farmers’ decisions to intensify maize production, measured as the share of maize area per farm allocated to hybrid seeds. We also ask how such intensification affects the vulnerability of expected crop income, crop income variability, and downside risk. We find that maize intensification is strongly affected by weather, climate shocks and climate normals. We also find that maize intensification has a positive effect on expected crop income but no significant effect on crop income variability or downside risk. Moreover, relying on a higher proportion of hybrid seed use, which is negatively associated with persistent climatic shocks, is not enough to statistically significantly reduce the likelihood that crop income falls below a given threshold (downside risk). Importantly, cropping system decisions are related to longer-term investment choices, while decisions on specific hybrid types are annual decisions. Thus, maize intensification alone is not an effective strategy. Further, our results suggest that farmers are not adapting optimally to climate change. Suboptimal choices might reflect market failures, such as credit constraints, poor access to input and output markets, and information asymmetries. Our results also suggest that rising population density provides incentives to shift toward more intensive farming systems. Finally, we find trade-offs between nonfarm employment and crop income. Our findings lead us to recommend that the Government of Kenya play an active role in encouraging smallholder adaptation to changing climate patterns and climate shocks. Not only do smallholders need better access to hybrid seeds and other inputs through decentralized, competitive markets, but also effective, widely-diffused market information services and other insurance mechanisms.