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We analyze a modification of the Richards growth model by introducing a time-dependent perturbation in the growth rate. This modification becomes effective at a special switching time, which represents the first-crossing-time of the Richards growth curve through a given constant boundary. The relevant features of the modified growth model are studied and compared with those of the original one. A sensitivity analysis on the switching time is also performed. Then, we define two different stochastic processes, i.e. a non-homogeneous linear birth-death process and a lognormal diffusion process, such that their means identify to the growth curve under investigation. For the diffusion process, we address the problem of parameters estimation through the maximum likelihood method. The estimates are obtained via meta-heuristic algorithms (namely, Simulated Annealing and Ant Lion Optimizer). A simulation study to validate the estimation procedure is also presented, together with a real application to oil production in France. Special attention is devoted to the approximation of switching time density, viewed as the first-passage-time density for the lognormal process., Comment: 24 pages, 18 figures

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a level-dependent quasi-birth-death process ${\cal X}=\{(I(t),J(t)): t\geq 0\}$, i.e., a bi-variate Markov chain defined on the countable state space $\cup_{i=0}^{\infty} l(i)$ with $l(i)=\{(i,j) : j\in\{0,...,M_i\}\}$, for integers $M_i\in\mathbb{N}_0$ and $i\in\mathbb{N}_0$, which has the special property that its $q$-matrix has a block-tridiagonal form. Under the assumption that the first passage to the subset $l(0)$ occurs in a finite time with certainty, we characterize the probability law of $(\tau_{\max},I_{\max},J(\tau_{\max}))$, where $I_{\max}$ is the running maximum level attained by process ${\cal X}$ before its first visit to states in $l(0)$, $\tau_{\max}$ is the first time that the level process $\{I(t): t\geq 0\}$ reaches the running maximum $I_{\max}$, and $J(\tau_{\max})$ is the phase at time $\tau_{\max}$. Our methods rely on the use of restricted Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of $\tau_{\max}$ on the set of sample paths $\{I_{\max}=i,J(\tau_{\max})=j\}$, and related processes under taboo of certain subsets of states. The utility of the resulting computational algorithms is demonstrated in two epidemic models: the SIS model for horizontally and vertically transmitted diseases; and the SIR model with constant population size., Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures

We consider a two-dimensional time-inhomogeneous birth-death process to model the time-evolution of fake news in a population. The two components of the process represent, respectively, (i) the number of individuals (say spreaders) who know the rumor and intend to spread it, and (ii) the number of individuals (say inactives) who have forgotten the rumor previously received. We employ the probability generating function-based approach to obtain the moments and the covariance of the two-dimensional process. We also analyze a new adimensional index to study the correlation between the two components. Some special cases are considered in which both the expected numbers of spreaders and inactives are equal to suitable sigmoidal curves, which are often adopted in modelling growth phenomena. Finally, we provide an application based on real data related to the diffusion of fake news, in which the optimal choice of the sigmoidal curve that fit the datasets is based on the minimization of the mean square error and of the relative absolute error.\, Comment: 41 pages, 12 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication on "Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences"

We consider a lognormal diffusion process having a multisigmoidal logistic mean, useful to model the evolution of a population which reaches the maximum level of the growth after many stages. Referring to the problem of statistical inference, two procedures to find the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters are described. One is based on the resolution of the system of the critical points of the likelihood function, and the other is on the maximization of the likelihood function with the simulated annealing algorithm. A simulation study to validate the described strategies for finding the estimates is also presented, with a real application to epidemiological data. Special attention is also devoted to the first-passage-time problem of the considered diffusion process through a fixed boundary., Comment: 37 pages, 36 figures

We consider a generalization of the classical logistic growth model introducing more than one inflection point. The growth, called multi-sigmoidal, is firstly analyzed from a deterministic point of view in order to obtain the main properties of the curve, such as the limit behavior, the inflection points and the threshold-crossing-time through a fixed boundary. We also present an application in population dynamics of plants based on real data. Then, we define two different birth-death processes, one with linear birth and death rates and the other with quadratic rates, and we analyze their main features. The conditions under which the processes have a mean of multi-sigmoidal logistic type and the first-passage-time problem are also discussed. Finally, with the aim of obtaining a more manageable stochastic description of the growth, we perform a scaling procedure leading to a lognormal diffusion process with mean of multi-sigmoidal logistic type. We finally conduct a detailed probabilistic analysis of this process, Comment: 28 pages, 30 figures

We investigate the effects of the resetting mechanism to the origin for a random motion on the real line characterized by two alternating velocities $v_1$ and $v_2$. We assume that the sequences of random times concerning the motions along each velocity follow two independent geometric counting processes of intensity $\lambda$, and that the resetting times are Poissonian with rate $\xi >0$. Under these assumptions we obtain the probability laws of the modified telegraph process describing the position and the velocity of the running particle. Our approach is based on the Markov property of the resetting times and on the knowledge of the distribution of the intertimes between consecutive velocity changes. We obtain also the asymptotic distribution of the particle position when (i) $\lambda$ tends to infinity, and (ii) the time goes to infinity. In the latter case the asymptotic distribution arises properly as an effect of the resetting mechanism. A quite different behavior is observed in the two cases when $v_2<0

In this paper, we introduce a bivariate tempered space-fractional Poisson process (BTSFPP) by time-changing the bivariate Poisson process with an independent tempered $\alpha$-stable subordinator. We study its distributional properties and its connection to differential equations. The L\'{e}vy measure for the BTSFPP is also derived. A bivariate competing risks and shock model based on the BTSFPP for predicting the failure times of the items that undergo two random shocks is also explored. The system is supposed to break when the sum of two types of shocks reaches a certain random threshold. Various results related to reliability such as reliability function, hazard rates, failure density, and the probability that the failure occurs due to a certain type of shock are studied. We show that for a general L\'{e}vy subordinator, the failure time of the system is exponentially distributed with mean depending on the Laplace exponent of the L\'{e}vy subordinator when the threshold has geometric distribution. Some special cases and several typical examples are also demonstrated., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures

Given a random variable $X$ and considered a family of its possible distortions, we define two new measures of distance between $X$ and each its distortion. For these distance measures, which are extensions of the Gini's mean difference, conditions are determined for the existence of a minimum, or a maximum, within specific families of distortions, generalizing some results presented in the recent literature., Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures, previous version submitted for publication on March 20, 2023

We introduce and study the cumulative information generating function, which provides a unifying mathematical tool suitable to deal with classical and fractional entropies based on the cumulative distribution function and on the survival function. Specifically, after establishing its main properties and some bounds, we show that it is a variability measure itself that extends the Gini mean semi-difference. We also provide (i) an extension of such a measure, based on distortion functions, and (ii) a weighted version based on a mixture distribution. Furthermore, we explore some connections with the reliability of $k$-out-of-$n$ systems and with stress-strength models for multi-component systems. Also, we address the problem of extending the cumulative information generating function to higher dimensions., Comment: 25 pages, 1 figure, revision submitted on September 19, 2023

We deal with a continuous-time Ehrenfest model defined over an extended star graph, defined as a lattice formed by the integers of $d$ semiaxis joined at the origin. The dynamics on each ray are regulated by linear transition rates, whereas the switching among rays at the origin occurs according to a general stochastic matrix. We perform a detailed investigation of the transient and asymptotic behavior of this process. We also obtain a diffusive approximation of the considered model, which leads to an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion process over a domain formed by semiaxis joined at the origin, named spider. We show that the approximating process possesses a truncated Gaussian stationary density. Finally, the goodness of the approximation is discussed through comparison of stationary distributions, means and variances., Comment: 30 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, to be published in "Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences"

Different strategies of reliability theory for the analysis of coherent systems have been studied by various researchers. Here, the Gini-type index is utilized as an applicable tool for the study and comparison of the ageing properties of complex systems. A new stochastic order in terms of Gini-type index is introduced to compare the speed of ageing of components and systems. The parallel-series and series-parallel systems with shared components are studied by their corresponding Gini-type indexes. Also, the generalization of Gini-type index for the multidimensional case is discussed, and is used to compare components lifetimes properties in the presence of other dependent components. It is shown that the ageing properties of a component lifetime can differ when the other components are working or have already failed. Numerous illustrative examples are given for better intuition of Gini-type and generalized Gini-type indexes throughout the paper., Comment: 29 pages, 16 figures

Stimulated by the need of describing useful notions related to information measures, we introduce the `pdf-related distributions'. These are defined in terms of transformation of absolutely continuous random variables through their own probability density functions. We investigate their main characteristics, with reference to the general form of the distribution, the quantiles, and some related notions of reliability theory. This allows us to obtain a characterization of the pdf-related distribution being uniform for distributions of exponential and Laplace type as well. We also face the problem of stochastic comparing the pdf-related distributions by resorting to suitable stochastic orders. Finally, the given results are used to analyse properties and to compare some useful information measures, such as the differential entropy and the varentropy., Comment: 15 pages, accepted for publication in Metrika

To overcome the drawbacks of Shannon's entropy, the concept of cumulative residual and past entropy has been proposed in the information theoretic literature. Furthermore, the Shannon entropy has been generalized in a number of different ways by many researchers. One important extension is Kerridge inaccuracy measure. In the present communication we study the cumulative residual and past inaccuracy measures, which are extensions of the corresponding cumulative entropies. Several properties, including monotonicity and bounds, are obtained for left, right and doubly truncated random variables., Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures

We consider a continuous-time Ehrenfest model defined over the integers from -N to N, and subject to catastrophes occurring at constant rate. The effect of each catastrophe instantaneously resets the process to state 0. We investigate both the transient and steady-state probabilities of the above model. Further, the first passage time through state 0 is discussed. We perform a jump-diffusion approximation of the above model, which leads to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with catastrophes. The underlying jump-diffusion process is finally studied, with special attention to the symmetric case arising when the Ehrenfest model has equal upward and downward transition rates., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures

We investigate an M/M/1 queue operating in two switching environments, where the switch is governed by a two-state time-homogeneous Markov chain. This model allows to describe a system that is subject to regular operating phases alternating with anomalous working phases or random repairing periods. We first obtain the steady-state distribution of the process in terms of a generalized mixture of two geometric distributions. In the special case when only one kind of switch is allowed, we analyze the transient distribution, and investigate the busy period problem. The analysis is also performed by means of a suitable heavy-traffic approximation which leads to a continuous random process. Its distribution satisfies a partial differential equation with randomly alternating infinitesimal moments. For the approximating process we determine the steady-state distribution, the transient distribution and a first-passage-time density., Comment: 31 pages, 18 figures

We investigate the one-dimensional telegraph random process in the presence of an elastic boundary at the origin. This process describes a finite-velocity random motion that alternates between two possible directions of motion (positive or negative). When the particle hits the origin, it is either absorbed, with probability $\alpha$, or reflected upwards, with probability $1-\alpha$. In the case of exponentially distributed random times between consecutive changes of direction, we obtain the distribution of the renewal cycles and of the absorption time at the origin. This investigation is performed both in the case of motion starting from the origin and non-zero initial state. We also study the probability law of the process within a renewal cycle.

The concept of mean inactivity time plays a crucial role in reliability, risk theory and life testing. In this regard, we introduce a weighted mean inactivity time function by considering a non-negative weight function. Based on this function, we provide expressions for the variance of transformed random variable and the weighted generalized cumulative entropy. The latter concept is an important measure of uncertainty which is shift-dependent and is of interest in certain applied contexts, such as reliability or mathematical neurobiology. Moreover, based on the comparison of mean inactivity times of a certain function of two lifetime random variables, we introduce and study a new stochastic order in terms of the weighted mean inactivity time function. Several characterizations and preservation properties of the new order under shock models, random maxima and renewal theory are discussed., Comment: 25 pages

We consider the jump telegraph process when switching intensities depend on external shocks also accompanying with jumps. The incomplete financial market model based on this process is studied. The Esscher transform, which changes only unobservable parameters, is considered in detail. The financial market model based on this transform can price switching risks as well as jump risks of the model.

Following the theory of information measures based on the cumulative distribution function, we propose the fractional generalized cumulative entropy, and its dynamic version. These entropies are particularly suitable to deal with distributions satisfying the proportional reversed hazard model. We study the connection with fractional integrals, and some bounds and comparisons based on stochastic orderings, that allow to show that the proposed measure is actually a variability measure. The investigation also involves various notions of reliability theory, since the considered dynamic measure is a suitable extension of the mean inactivity time. We also introduce the empirical generalized fractional cumulative entropy as a non-parametric estimator of the new measure. It is shown that the empirical measure converges to the proposed notion almost surely. Then, we address the stability of the empirical measure and provide an example of application to real data. Finally, a central limit theorem is established under the exponential distribution., Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication on Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation

We analyze the one-dimensional telegraph random process confined by two boundaries, 0 and $H>0$. The process experiences hard reflection at the boundaries (with random switching to full absorption). Namely, when the process hits the origin (the threshold $H$) it is either absorbed, with probability $\alpha$, or reflected upwards (downwards), with probability $1-\alpha$, for $0<\alpha<1$. We provide various results on the expected values of the renewal cycles and of the absorption time. The adopted approach is based on the analysis of the first-crossing times of a suitable compound Poisson process through linear boundaries. Our analysis includes also some comparisons between suitable stopping times of the considered telegraph process and of the corresponding diffusion process obtained under the classical Kac's scaling conditions., Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures, to appear on "Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability"

In reliability theory and survival analysis, the residual entropy is known as a measure suitable to describe the dynamic information content in stochastic systems conditional on survival. Aiming to analyze the variability of such information content, in this paper we introduce the variance of the residual lifetimes, "residual varentropy" in short. After a theoretical investigation of some properties of the residual varentropy, we illustrate certain applications related to the proportional hazards model and the first-passage times of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck jump-diffusion process., Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, to appear on "Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences"

In order to develop certain fractional probabilistic analogues of Taylor's theorem and mean value theorem, we introduce the nth-order fractional equilibrium distribution in terms of the Weyl fractional integral and investigate its main properties. Specifically, we show a characterization result by which the nth-order fractional equilibrium distribution is identical to the starting distribution if and only if it is exponential. The nth-order fractional equilibrium density is then used to prove a fractional probabilistic Taylor's theorem based on derivatives of Riemann-Liouville type. A fractional analogue of the probabilistic mean value theorem is thus developed for pairs of nonnegative random variables ordered according to the survival bounded stochastic order. We also provide some related results, both involving the normalized moments and a fractional extension of the variance, and a formula of interest to actuarial science. In conclusion we discuss the probabilistic Taylor's theorem based on fractional Caputo derivatives., Comment: 19 pages

We propose a new deterministic growth model which captures certain features of both the Gompertz and Korf laws. We investigate its main properties, with special attention to the correction factor, the relative growth rate, the inflection point, the maximum specific growth rate, the lag time and the threshold crossing problem. Some data analytic examples and their performance are also considered. Furthermore, we study a stochastic counterpart of the proposed model, that is a linear time-inhomogeneous birth-death process whose mean behaves as the deterministic one. We obtain the transition probabilities, the moments and the population ultimate extinction probability for this process. We finally treat the special case of a simple birth process, which better mimics the proposed growth model., Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures

We consider a discrete-time random walk on the nodes of an unbounded hexagonal lattice. We determine the probability generating functions, the transition probabilities and the relevant moments. The convergence of the stochastic process to a 2-dimensional Brownian motion is also discussed. Furthermore, we obtain some results on its asymptotic behavior making use of large deviation theory. Finally, we investigate the first-passage-time problem of the random walk through a vertical straight-line. Under suitable symmetry assumptions we are able to determine the first-passage-time probabilities in a closed form, which deserve interest in applied fields., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures, former title: Random walks on graphene: generating functions, state probabilities and asymptotic behavior

A compound Poisson process whose randomized time is an independent Poisson process is called compound Poisson process with Poisson subordinator. We provide its probability distribution, which is expressed in terms of the Bell polynomials, and investigate in detail both the special cases in which the compound Poisson process has exponential jumps and normal jumps. Then for the iterated Poisson process we discuss some properties and provide convergence results to a Poisson process. The first-crossing-time problem for the iterated Poisson process is finally tackled in the cases of (i) a decreasing and constant boundary, where we provide some closed-form results, and (ii) a linearly increasing boundary, where we propose an iterative procedure to compute the first-crossing-time density and survival functions., Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures

In this paper we review some results on time-homogeneous birth-death processes. Specifically, for truncated birth-death processes with two absorbing or two reflecting endpoints, we recall the necessary and sufficient conditions on the transition rates such that the transition probabilities satisfy a spatial symmetry relation. The latter leads to simple expressions for first-passage-time densities and avoiding transition probabilities. This approach is thus thoroughly extended to the case of bilateral birth-death processes, even in the presence of catastrophes, and to the case of a two-dimensional birth-death process with constant rates., Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures

We study jump-diffusion processes with parameters switching at random times. Being motivated by possible applications, we characterise equivalent martingale measures for these processes by means of the relative entropy. The minimal entropy approach is also developed. It is shown that in contrast to the case of L\'evy processes, for this model an Esscher transformation does not produce the minimal relative entropy., Comment: 23 pages, 2 figures

We consider a fractional counting process with jumps of amplitude $1,2,\ldots,k$, with $k\in \mathbb{N}$, whose probabilities satisfy a suitable system of fractional difference-differential equations. We obtain the moment generating function and the probability law of the resulting process in terms of generalized Mittag-Leffler functions. We also discuss two equivalent representations both in terms of a compound fractional Poisson process and of a subordinator governed by a suitable fractional Cauchy problem. The first occurrence time of a jump of fixed amplitude is proved to have the same distribution as the waiting time of the first event of a classical fractional Poisson process, this extending a well-known property of the Poisson process. When $k=2$ we also express the distribution of the first passage time of the fractional counting process in an integral form. Finally, we show that the ratios given by the powers of the fractional Poisson process and of the counting process over their means tend to 1 in probability., Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures

Given two absolutely continuous nonnegative independent random variables, we define the reversed relevation transform as dual to the relevation transform. We first apply such transforms to the lifetimes of the components of parallel and series systems under suitably proportionality assumptions on the hazards rates. Furthermore, we prove that the (reversed) relevation transform is commutative if and only if the proportional (reversed) hazard rate model holds. By repeated application of the reversed relevation transform we construct a decreasing sequence of random variables which leads to new weighted probability densities. We obtain various relations involving ageing notions and stochastic orders. We also exploit the connection of such a sequence to the cumulative entropy and to an operator that is dual to the Dickson-Hipp operator. Iterative formulae for computing the mean and the cumulative entropy of the random variables of the sequence are finally investigated.

We consider dynamic versions of the mutual information of lifetime distributions, with focus on past lifetimes, residual lifetimes and mixed lifetimes evaluated at different instants. This allows to study multicomponent systems, by measuring the dependence in conditional lifetimes of two components having possibly different ages. We provide some bounds, and investigate the mutual information of residual lifetimes within the time-transformed exponential model (under both the assumptions of unbounded and truncated lifetimes). Moreover, with reference to the order statistics of a random sample, we evaluate explicitly the mutual information between the minimum and the maximum, conditional on inspection at different times, and show that it is distribution-free. Finally, we develop a copula-based approach aiming to express the dynamic mutual information for past and residual bivariate lifetimes in an alternative way., Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures

We consider an extended birth-death-immigration process defined on a lattice formed by the integers of $d$ semiaxes joined at the origin. When the process reaches the origin, then it may jumps toward any semiaxis with the same rate. The dynamics on each ray evolves according to a one-dimensional linear birth-death process with immigration. We investigate the transient and asymptotic behavior of the process via its probability generating function. The stationary distribution, when existing, is a zero-modified negative binomial distribution. We also study a diffusive approximation of the process, which involves a diffusion process with linear drift and infinitesimal variance on each ray. It possesses a gamma-type transient density admitting a stationary limit. As a byproduct of our study, we obtain a closed form of the number of permutations with a fixed number of components, and a new series form of the polylogarithm function expressed in terms of the Gauss hypergeometric function., Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures

For nonnegative random variables with finite means we introduce an analogous of the equilibrium residual-lifetime distribution based on the quantile function. This allows to construct new distributions with support (0,1), and to obtain a new quantile-based version of the probabilistic generalization of Taylor's theorem. Similarly, for pairs of stochastically ordered random variables we come to a new quantile-based form of the probabilistic mean value theorem. The latter involves a distribution that generalizes the Lorenz curve. We investigate the special case of proportional quantile functions and apply the given results to various models based on classes of distributions and measures of risk theory. Motivated by some stochastic comparisons, we also introduce the `expected reversed proportional shortfall order', and a new characterization of random lifetimes involving the reversed hazard rate function., Comment: 21 pages, 3 figures, submitted for publication

We consider a bilateral birth-death process characterized by a constant transition rate $\lambda$ from even states and a possibly different transition rate $\mu$ from odd states. We determine the probability generating functions of the even and odd states, the transition probabilities, mean and variance of the process for arbitrary initial state. Some features of the birth-death process confined to the non-negative integers by a reflecting boundary in the zero-state are also analyzed. In particular, making use of a Laplace transform approach we obtain a series form of the transition probability from state 1 to the zero-state., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures

We consider a random trial-based telegraph process, which describes a motion on the real line with two constant velocities along opposite directions. At each epoch of the underlying counting process the new velocity is determined by the outcome of a random trial. Two schemes are taken into account: Bernoulli trials and classical P\'olya urn trials. We investigate the probability law of the process and the mean of the velocity of the moving particle. We finally discuss two cases of interest: (i) the case of Bernoulli trials and intertimes having exponential distributions with linear rates (in which, interestingly, the process exhibits a logistic stationary density with non-zero mean), and (ii) the case of P\'olya trials and intertimes having first Gamma and then exponential distributions with constant rates., Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures

Consider a system performing a continuous-time random walk on the integers, subject to catastrophes occurring at constant rate, and followed by exponentially-distributed repair times. After any repair the system starts anew from state zero. We study both the transient and steady-state probability laws of the stochastic process that describes the state of the system. We then derive a heavy-traffic approximation to the model that yields a jump-diffusion process. The latter is equivalent to a Wiener process subject to randomly occurring jumps, whose probability law is obtained. The goodness of the approximation is finally discussed., Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, paper accepted by "Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability", the final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.com