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The world population, especially in developing countries, has experienced a rapid progression of urbanization over the last half century. Urbanization has been accompanied by a rise in cases of urban infectious diseases, such as malaria. The complexity and heterogeneity of the urban environment has made study of specific urban centers vital for urban malaria control programs, whereas more generalizable risk factor identification also remains essential. Ahmedabad city, India, is a large urban center located in the state of Gujarat, which has experienced a significant Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum disease burden. Therefore, a targeted analysis of malaria in Ahmedabad city was undertaken to identify spatiotemporal patterns of malaria, risk factors, and methods of predicting future malaria cases. Malaria incidence in Ahmedabad city was found to be spatially heterogeneous, but temporally stable, with high spatial correlation between species. Because of this stability, a prediction method utilizing historic cases from prior years and seasons was used successfully to predict which areas of Ahmedabad city would experience the highest malaria burden and could be used to prospectively target interventions. Finally, spatial analysis showed that normalized difference vegetation index, proximity to water sources, and location within Ahmedabad city relative to the dense urban core were the best predictors of malaria incidence. Because of the heterogeneity of urban environments and urban malaria itself, the study of specific large urban centers is vital to assist in allocating resources and informing future urban planning.

IntroductionInsecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the main interventions used for malaria control. However, these nets may also be effective against other vector borne diseases (VBDs). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the efficacy of ITNs, insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) and insecticide-treated house screening (ITS) against Chagas disease, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis, dengue, human African trypanosomiasis, Japanese encephalitis, lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis.MethodsMEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and Tropical Disease Bulletin databases were searched using intervention, vector- and disease-specific search terms. Cluster or individually randomised controlled trials, non-randomised trials with pre- and post-intervention data and rotational design studies were included. Analysis assessed the efficacy of ITNs, ITCs or ITS versus no intervention. Meta-analysis of clinical data was performed and percentage reduction in vector density calculated.ResultsTwenty-one studies were identified which met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of clinical data could only be performed for four cutaneous leishmaniasis studies which together showed a protective efficacy of ITNs of 77% (95%CI: 39%-91%). Studies of ITC and ITS against cutaneous leishmaniasis also reported significant reductions in disease incidence. Single studies reported a high protective efficacy of ITS against dengue and ITNs against Japanese encephalitis. No studies of Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis or onchocerciasis were identified.ConclusionThere are likely to be considerable collateral benefits of ITN roll out on cutaneous leishmaniasis where this disease is co-endemic with malaria. Due to the low number of studies identified, issues with reporting of entomological outcomes, and few studies reporting clinical outcomes, it is difficult to make strong conclusions on the effect of ITNs, ITCs or ITS on other VBDs and therefore further studies be conducted. Nonetheless, it is clear that insecticide-treated materials such as ITNs have the potential to reduce pathogen transmission and morbidity from VBDs where vectors enter houses.