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Dengue poses a significant and multifaceted public health challenge in Sri Lanka, encompassing both preventive and curative aspects. Accurate dengue incidence forecasting is pivotal for effective surveillance and disease control. To address this, we developed an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model tailored for predicting weekly dengue cases in the Colombo district. The modeling process drew on comprehensive weekly dengue fever data from the Weekly Epidemiological Reports (WER), spanning January 2015 to August 2020. Following rigorous model selection, the ARIMA (2,1,0) model, augmented with an autoregressive component (AR) of order 16, emerged as the best-fitted model. It underwent initial calibration and fine-tuning using data from January 2015 to August 2020, and was validated against independent 2000 data. Selection criteria included parameter significance, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC). Importantly, the residuals of the ARIMA model conformed to the assumptions of randomness, constant variance, and normality affirming its suitability. The forecasts closely matched observed dengue incidence, offering a valuable tool for public health decision-makers. However, an increased percentage error was noted in late 2020, likely attributed to factors including potential underreporting due to COVID-19-related disruptions amid rising dengue cases. This research contributes to the critical task of managing dengue outbreaks and underscores the dynamic challenges posed by external influences on disease surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population in 15 European countries. The economy was measured by the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product growth rate, while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. The data were obtained from a time series dataset published by the World Bank for six decades from 1961 to 2021. The Granger causality test was employed in the study to analyse the impact between the economy and the elderly population. An alternate approach, wavelet coherence, was used to demonstrate the changes to the relationship between the two variables in Europe over the 60 years. The findings from the Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional Granger causality from the economy to the elderly population for Luxembourg, Austria, Denmark, Spain, and Sweden, while vice versa for Greece and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, for Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Turkey, Granger causality does not exist between the said variables. Moreover, wavelet coherence analysis depicts that for Europe, the elderly population negatively affected the economic growth in the 1960s, and vice versa in the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latrine usage and sanitation in Sri Lanka is one of the best in South Asia. Interventions providing toilets and promoting usage have substantially improved health conditions of the population. However, lack of usage of available sanitation facilities and consequent unhygienic practices, such as open defecation is still prevalent in Sri Lanka. These cause serious health issues and environmental problems. Therefore, this study aims to identify factors determining toilet usage in urban, rural and estate sectors. Data of Household Income and Expenditure Survey of the Department of Census and Statistics of the year 2016 has been used for the analysis. The study is cross-sectional and predominantly descriptive in nature. It was found that sector (urban, rural and estate); districts (Trincomalee and Batticaloa districts in the Eastern Province); age of the members of the households; headship of the head of the household; ethnicity of the head of the household; education level of the head of the household; and poverty (income) are determinants of usage of latrines, whilst family size was not a significant factors. The findings of the study will support Evidence-Based Policy. However, further emphasis is to be given to socio-economic, cultural and behavioural aspects of latrine usage in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]