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Background Design thinking allows challenging problems to be redefined in order to identify alternative user-center strategies and solutions. To address the many challenges associated with collecting and reporting data during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, we used a design thinking approach to build the Global Ebola Laboratory Data collection and reporting system. Main text We used the five-stage Design Thinking model proposed by Hasso-Plattner Institute of Design at Stanford in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. This approach offers a flexible model which focuses on empathizing, defining, ideating, prototyping, and testing. A strong focus of the methodology includes end-users’ feedback from the beginning to the end of the process. This is an iterative methodology that continues to adapt according to the needs of the system. The stages do not need to be sequential and can be run in parallel, out of order, and repeated as necessary. Design thinking was used to develop a data collection and reporting system, which contains all laboratory data from the three countries during one of the most complicated multi-country outbreaks to date. The data collection and reporting system was used to orient the response interventions at the district, national, and international levels within the three countries including generating situation reports, monitoring the epidemiological and operational situations, providing forecasts of the epidemic, and supporting Ebola-related research and the Ebola National Survivors programs within each country. Conclusions Our study demonstrates the numerous benefits that arise when using a design thinking methodology during an outbreak to solve acute challenges within the national health information system and the authors recommend it’s use during future complex outbreaks.

Background The largest West African monkeypox outbreak began September 2017, in Nigeria. Four individuals traveling from Nigeria to the United Kingdom (n = 2), Israel (n = 1), and Singapore (n = 1) became the first human monkeypox cases exported from Africa, and a related nosocomial transmission event in the United Kingdom became the first confirmed human-to-human monkeypox transmission event outside of Africa. Methods Epidemiological and molecular data for exported and Nigerian cases were analyzed jointly to better understand the exportations in the temporal and geographic context of the outbreak. Results Isolates from all travelers and a Bayelsa case shared a most recent common ancestor and traveled to Bayelsa, Delta, or Rivers states. Genetic variation for this cluster was lower than would be expected from a random sampling of genomes from this outbreak, but data did not support direct links between travelers. Conclusions Monophyly of exportation cases and the Bayelsa sample, along with the intermediate levels of genetic variation, suggest a small pool of related isolates is the likely source for the exported infections. This may be the result of the level of genetic variation present in monkeypox isolates circulating within the contiguous region of Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers states, or another more restricted, yet unidentified source pool.

Successful emergency vaccination campaigns rely on effective deployment and vaccination plans. This applies to localised outbreaks as well as for pandemics. In the wake of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, analysis of the global Vaccine Deployment Initiative, through which the World Health Organization (WHO) donated pandemic influenza vaccines to countries in need, revealed that an absence of vaccine deployment plans in many countries significantly hindered vaccine deployment. Through the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Framework adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2011, WHO is engaging in several capacity building activities to improve pandemic influenza preparedness and response and make provisions for access to vaccines and sharing of other benefits. The Framework calls for the development and exercise of operational plans for deployment of influenza vaccines to enhance pandemic preparedness. To this end, WHO has supported the development of PIPDeploy, an interactive, in-person table top simulation exercise to facilitate learning for emergency preparedness. It employs various game design elements including a game board, time pressure, leaderboards and teams to enhance participants’ motivation. PIPDeploy formed part of five WHO Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Deployment Workshops attended by national-level managers responsible for pandemic influenza vaccine response predominantly in non-producing countries. The purpose of this study was to describe the features and application of PIPDeploy, and present findings of the evaluation of participants’ experiences during the simulation involving a “hot wash” discussion and collection of quantitative data. The simulation’s instructional approach was widely accepted by participants, who reported that the format was novel and engaging. They reflected on its utility for identifying gaps in their own vaccine deployment plans and regulatory frameworks for importation of vaccine products. All participants found the simulation relevant to their professional objectives. A range of other potential applications were suggested, including PIPDeploy’s adaptation to sub-national contexts and to other epidemic diseases.

We sequenced 46 Vibrio cholerae isolates from Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria, 37 of which were from 2018–2019. These sequences belong to the T12 lineage observed in the region since 2009, suggesting continuous transmission. Data were generated during a workshop in Nigeria, providing a model for future regionally coordinated surveillance efforts.

The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Nigeria with a view of generating evidence to enhance planning and response strategies. A national surveillance dataset between 27 February and 6 June 2020 was retrospectively analysed, with confirmatory testing for COVID-19 done by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The primary outcomes were cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality (CF). A total of 40 926 persons (67% of total 60 839) had complete records of RT-PCR test across 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory, 12 289 (30.0%) of whom were confirmed COVID-19 cases. Of those confirmed cases, 3467 (28.2%) had complete records of clinical outcome (alive or dead), 342 (9.9%) of which died. The overall CI and CF were 5.6 per 100 000 population and 2.8%, respectively. The highest proportion of COVID-19 cases and deaths were recorded in persons aged 31–40 years (25.5%) and 61–70 years (26.6%), respectively; and males accounted for a higher proportion of confirmed cases (65.8%) and deaths (79.0%). Sixty-six per cent of confirmed COVID-19 cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis. In conclusion, this paper has provided an insight into the early epidemiology of COVID-19 in Nigeria, which could be useful for contextualising public health planning.

No abstract available.

Ebola virus has been detected in the semen of men after their recovery from Ebola virus disease (EVD). We report the presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen in a cohort of survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone.We enrolled a convenience sample of 220 adult male survivors of EVD in Sierra Leone, at various times after discharge from an Ebola treatment unit (ETU), in two phases (100 participants were in phase 1, and 120 in phase 2). Semen specimens obtained at baseline were tested by means of a quantitative reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) assay with the use of the target sequences of NP and VP40 (in phase 1) or NP and GP (in phase 2). This study did not evaluate directly the risk of sexual transmission of EVD.Of 210 participants who provided an initial semen specimen for analysis, 57 (27%) had positive results on quantitative RT-PCR. Ebola virus RNA was detected in the semen of all 7 men with a specimen obtained within 3 months after ETU discharge, in 26 of 42 (62%) with a specimen obtained at 4 to 6 months, in 15 of 60 (25%) with a specimen obtained at 7 to 9 months, in 4 of 26 (15%) with a specimen obtained at 10 to 12 months, in 4 of 38 (11%) with a specimen obtained at 13 to 15 months, in 1 of 25 (4%) with a specimen obtained at 16 to 18 months, and in no men with a specimen obtained at 19 months or later. Among the 46 participants with a positive result in phase 1, the median baseline cycle-threshold values (higher values indicate lower RNA values) for the NP and VP40 targets were lower within 3 months after ETU discharge (32.4 and 31.3, respectively; in 7 men) than at 4 to 6 months (34.3 and 33.1; in 25), at 7 to 9 months (37.4 and 36.6; in 13), and at 10 to 12 months (37.7 and 36.9; in 1). In phase 2, a total of 11 participants had positive results for NP and GP targets (samples obtained at 4.1 to 15.7 months after ETU discharge); cycle-threshold values ranged from 32.7 to 38.0 for NP and from 31.1 to 37.7 for GP.These data showed the long-term presence of Ebola virus RNA in semen and declining persistence with increasing time after ETU discharge. (Funded by the World Health Organization and others.).

Mobile detection of Lassa virus Lassa fever is a hemorrhagic viral disease endemic to West Africa. Usually, each year sees only a smattering of cases reported, but hospitalized patients risk a 15% chance of death. Responding to fears that a 10-fold surge in cases in Nigeria in 2018 signaled an incipient outbreak, Kafetzopoulou et al. performed metagenomic nanopore sequencing directly from samples from 120 patients (see the Perspective by Bhadelia). Results showed no strong evidence of a new strain emerging nor of person-to-person transmission; rather, rodent contamination was the main source. To prevent future escalation of this disease, we need to understand what triggers the irruption of rodents into human dwellings. Science , this issue p. 74 ; see also p. 30

Hepatitis E virus genotype 1 (HEV-1) is associated with large epidemics. Notably, HEV subtype 1e (HEV-1e) has caused HEV outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa., Hepatitis E virus genotype 1 (HEV-1) is associated with large epidemics. Notably, HEV subtype 1e (HEV-1e) has caused HEV outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa. We report here the second full-length genome sequence of an HEV-1e strain (NG/17-0503) from a recent outbreak in Nigeria in 2017. It shares 94.2% identity with an HEV-1e strain from Chad.

Lassa fever cases have increased in Nigeria since 2016 with the highest number, 633 cases, reported in 2018. From 1 January to 28 April 2019, 554 laboratory-confirmed cases including 124 deaths were reported in 21 states in Nigeria. A public health emergency was declared on 22 January by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. We describe the various outbreak responses that have been implemented, including establishment of emergency thresholds and guidelines for case management.

Process mapping is a systems thinking approach used to understand, analyse and optimise processes within complex systems. We aim to demonstrate how this methodology can be applied during disease outbreaks to strengthen response and health systems. Process mapping exercises were conducted during three unique emerging disease outbreak contexts with different: mode of transmission, size, and health system infrastructure. System functioning improved considerably in each country. In Sierra Leone, laboratory testing was accelerated from 6 days to within 24 hours. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, time to suspected case notification reduced from 7 to 3 days. In Nigeria, key data reached the national level in 48 hours instead of 5 days. Our research shows that despite the chaos and complexities associated with emerging pathogen outbreaks, the implementation of a process mapping exercise can address immediate response priorities while simultaneously strengthening components of a health system.

Background: In 2017 the Nigerian Ministry of Health notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of an outbreak of hepatitis E located in the north-east region of the country with 146 cases with 2 deaths. The analysis of the hepatitis E virus (HEV) genotypes responsible for the outbreak revealed the predominance of HEV genotypes 1 (HEV-1) and 2 (HEV-2). Molecular data of HEV-2 genomes are limited; therefore we characterized a HEV-2 strain of the outbreak in more detail. Finding: The full-length genome sequence of an HEV-2 strain (NG/17–0500) from the outbreak was amplified using newly designed consensus primers. Comparison with other HEV complete genome sequences, including the only HEV-2 strain (Mex-14) with available complete genome sequences and the availability of data of partial HEV-2 sequences from Sub-Saharan Africa, suggests that NG/17–0500 belongs to HEV subtype 2b (HEV-2b). Conclusions: We identified a novel HEV-2b strain from Sub-Saharan Africa, which is the second complete HEV-2 sequence to date, whose natural history and epidemiology merit further investigation.

Summary Background On April 25, 2017, a cluster of unexplained illnesses and deaths associated with a funeral was reported in Sinoe County, Liberia. Molecular testing identified Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C (NmC) in specimens from patients. We describe the epidemiological investigation of this cluster and metagenomic characterisation of the outbreak strain. Methods We collected epidemiological data from the field investigation and medical records review. Confirmed, probable, and suspected cases were defined on the basis of molecular testing and signs or symptoms of meningococcal disease. Metagenomic sequences from patient specimens were compared with 141 meningococcal isolate genomes to determine strain lineage. Findings 28 meningococcal disease cases were identified, with dates of symptom onset from April 21 to April 30, 2017: 13 confirmed, three probable, and 12 suspected. 13 patients died. Six (21%) patients reported fever and 23 (82%) reported gastrointestinal symptoms. The attack rate for confirmed and probable cases among funeral attendees was 10%. Metagenomic sequences from six patient specimens were similar to a sequence type (ST) 10217 (clonal complex [CC] 10217) isolate genome from Niger, 2015. Multilocus sequencing identified five of seven alleles from one specimen that matched ST-9367, which is represented in the PubMLST database by one carriage isolate from Burkina Faso, in 2011, and belongs to CC10217. Interpretation This outbreak featured high attack and case fatality rates. Clinical presentation was broadly consistent with previous meningococcal disease outbreaks, but predominance of gastrointestinal symptoms was unusual compared with previous African meningitis epidemics. The outbreak strain was genetically similar to NmC CC10217, which caused meningococcal disease outbreaks in Niger and Nigeria. CC10217 had previously been identified only in the African meningitis belt. Funding US Global Health Security.

Summary Following cessation of continuous Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission within Western Africa, sporadic EBOV disease (EVD) cases continued to re-emerge beyond the viral incubation period. Epidemiological and genomic evidence strongly suggests that this represented transmission from EVD survivors. To investigate whether persistent infections are characterized by ongoing viral replication, we sequenced EBOV from the semen of nine EVD survivors and a subset of corresponding acute specimens. EBOV evolutionary rates during persistence were either similar to or reduced relative to acute infection rates. Active EBOV replication/transcription continued during convalescence, but decreased over time, consistent with viral persistence rather than viral latency. Patterns of genetic divergence suggest a moderate relaxation of selective constraints within the sGP carboxy-terminal tail during persistent infections, but do not support widespread diversifying selection. Altogether, our data illustrate that EBOV persistence in semen, urine, and aqueous humor is not a quiescent or latent infection., Graphical Abstract, Highlights • During persistence, EBOV exhibits heterogeneous evolutionary rates • Active EBOV transcription and replication occurs during persistence • RNA hyper-editing observed during viral persistence • No evidence for significant selective pressure during persistence, Whitmer et al. find that Ebola virus continues replication/transcription within the eye and male genital tract of Ebola virus disease survivors. They describe viral replication, evolutionary rates, and selective pressures experienced during acute and persistent infection.

During the recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa several international mobile laboratories were deployed to the mainly affected countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia to provide ebolavirus diagnostic capacity. Additionally, imported cases and small outbreaks in other countries required global preparedness for Ebola diagnostics. Detection of viral RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction has proven effective for diagnosis of ebolavirus disease and several assays are available. However, reliability of these assays is largely unknown and requires serious evaluation. Therefore, a proficiency test panel of 11 samples was generated and distributed on a global scale. Panels were analyzed by 83 expert laboratories and 106 data sets were returned. From these 78 results were rated optimal and 3 acceptable, 25 indicated need for improvement. While performance of the laboratories deployed to West Africa was superior to the overall performance there was no significant difference between the different assays applied., Author summary For the highly infectious and deadly ebolavirus disease (EVD) to date neither specific treatment nor vaccines are available. Rapid and adequate isolation of patients is the only option to contain and to combat spreading of the disease. Reliable and sensitive diagnosis that allows efficient identification of infected individuals is a pre-requisite for outbreak management. External Quality Assurance (EQA) studies are a vital tool to assess individual diagnostic laboratory performance particularly important during the outbreak of novel emerging infections. Therefore, a panel of inactivated ebolavirus samples was generated in order to perform an EQA for ebolavirus diagnostic during the recent outbreak in West Africa to assess performance of mobile laboratories sent to the outbreak countries from different parts of the world. Further, the panel was provided to laboratories in other parts of the world to improve global preparedness in case EVD would spread through international travel or evacuation of infected international staff members deployed to West Africa to fight the disease. While 73.6% of all results reported during this study were rated optimal the performance of the laboratories from the outbreak countries was even better with 82.1% of the results rated optimal.

The 2013-2016 West African epidemic caused by the Ebola virus was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Here we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region by analysing 1,610 Ebola virus genomes, which represent over 5% of the known cases. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic 'gravity' model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already sown the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective at curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing that these countries were susceptible to substantial outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal that this large epidemic was a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help to inform interventions in future epidemics. ispartof: Nature vol:544 issue:7650 pages:309- ispartof: location:England status: published

Background The international impact, rapid widespread transmission, and reporting delays during the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted the need for a global, centralized database to inform outbreak response. The World Health Organization and Emerging and Dangerous Pathogens Laboratory Network addressed this need by supporting the development of a global laboratory database. Methods Specimens were collected in the affected countries from patients and dead bodies meeting the case definitions for Ebola virus disease. Test results were entered in nationally standardized spreadsheets and consolidated onto a central server. Results From March 2014 through August 2016, 256343 specimens tested for Ebola virus disease were captured in the database. Thirty-one specimen types were collected, and a variety of diagnostic tests were performed. Regular analysis of data described the functionality of laboratory and response systems, positivity rates, and the geographic distribution of specimens. Conclusion With data standardization and end user buy-in, the collection and analysis of large amounts of data with multiple stakeholders and collaborators across various user-access levels was made possible and contributed to outbreak response needs. The usefulness and value of a multifunctional global laboratory database is far reaching, with uses including virtual biobanking, disease forecasting, and adaption to other disease outbreaks.

SummaryThe 2013-2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease in West Africa was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Extensive collaborative sequencing projects have produced a large collection of over 1600 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, unmatched for any single human epidemic. In this comprehensive analysis of this entire dataset, we reconstruct in detail the history of migration, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate, administrative boundaries, demography and culture with viral movement among 56 administrative regions. Our results show that during the outbreak viral lineages moved according to a classic ‘gravity’ model, with more intense migration between larger and more proximate population centers. Notably, we find that despite a strong attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, localized cross-border transmission beforehand had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures relatively ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We use this empirical evidence to address why the epidemic did not spread into neighboring countries, showing that although these regions were susceptible to developing significant outbreaks, they were also at lower risk of viral introductions. Finally, viral genome sequence data uniquely reveals this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform approaches to intervention in such epidemics in the future.

Between December 2013 and April 2016, the largest epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to date generated more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths in the large, mobile populations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Tracking the rapid rise and slower decline of the West African epidemic has reinforced some common understandings about the epidemiology and control of EVD but has also generated new insights. Despite having more information about the geographic distribution of the disease, the risk of human infection from animals and from survivors of EVD remains unpredictable over a wide area of equatorial Africa. Until human exposure to infection can be anticipated or avoided, future outbreaks will have to be managed with the classic approach to EVD control — extensive surveillance, rapid detection and diagnosis, comprehensive tracing of contacts, prompt patient isolation, supportive clinical care, rigorous efforts to prevent and control infection, safe and dignified burial, and engagement of the community. Empirical and modeling studies conducted during the West African epidemic have shown that large epidemics of EVD are preventable — a rapid response can interrupt transmission and restrict the size of outbreaks, even in densely populated cities. The critical question now is how to ensure that populations and their health services are ready for the next outbreak, wherever it may occur. Health security across Africa and beyond depends on committing resources to both strengthen national health systems and sustain investment in the next generation of vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics.

To end the largest known outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and to prevent new transmissions, rapid epidemiological tracing of cases and contacts was required. The ability to quickly identify unknown sources and chains of transmission is key to ending the EVD epidemic and of even greater importance in the context of recent reports of Ebola virus (EBOV) persistence in survivors. Phylogenetic analysis of complete EBOV genomes can provide important information on the source of any new infection. A local deep sequencing facility was established at the Mateneh Ebola Treatment Centre in central Sierra Leone. The facility included all wetlab and computational resources to rapidly process EBOV diagnostic samples into full genome sequences. We produced 554 EBOV genomes from EVD cases across Sierra Leone. These genomes provided a detailed description of EBOV evolution and facilitated phylogenetic tracking of new EVD cases. Importantly, we show that linked genomic and epidemiological data can not only support contact tracing but also identify unconventional transmission chains involving body fluids, including semen. Rapid EBOV genome sequencing, when linked to epidemiological information and a comprehensive database of virus sequences across the outbreak, provided a powerful tool for public health epidemic control efforts., info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) was first detected in June 2009 in South Africa and later resulted in extensive transmission throughout Africa. Established routine surveillance programs and collaboration between private and public sector laboratories allowed for comprehensive molecular epidemiological and antigenic investigation of the first and second waves of 2009-2010 pandemic influenza in South Africa.We used reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction to screen for influenza virus in 9792 specimens recovered during 2009 and 6915 specimens recovered during 2010 from inpatients and outpatients with influenza-like illness or severe acute respiratory illness symptoms identified by surveillance programs. Influenza-positive specimens were subjected to genetic and antigenic characterization. Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses of the hemagglutinin genes of 96 A(H1N1)pdm09 strains were used for molecular epidemiological investigations. Hemagglutination inhibition assays and sequencing of the PB2 and neuraminidase genes were used to investigate pathogenicity and resistance mutations.The A(H1N1)pdm09 epidemic occurred as a second epidemic peak following seasonal influenza A virus subtype H3N2 cases in 2009 and in 2010. Progressive drift away from the A/California/7/2009 vaccine strain was observed at both the nucleotide and amino acid level, with 2010 strains clustering separate to 2009 strains. A few unique clusters of amino acid changes in severe cases were identified, but most strains were antigenically similar to the vaccine strain, and no resistance or known pathogenicity mutations were detected.Despite limited drift observed over the 2 seasons in South Africa, circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 strains remained antigenically similar to strains identified in other northern and southern hemisphere countries from 2010 and 2011.

Data about respiratory coinfections with 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 during the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic in Africa are limited. We used an existing surveillance program for severe acute respiratory illness to evaluate a new multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assay and investigate the role of influenza virus and other respiratory viruses in pneumonia hospitalizations during and after the influenza pandemic in South Africa.The multiplex assay was developed to detect 10 respiratory viruses, including influenza A and B viruses, parainfluenza virus types 1-3, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), enterovirus, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), adenovirus (AdV), and rhinovirus (RV), followed by influenza virus subtyping. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal specimens were collected from patients hospitalized with pneumonia at 6 hospitals during 2009-2010.Validation against external quality controls confirmed the high sensitivity (91%) and specificity (100%) and user-friendliness, compared with other PCR technologies. Of 8173 patients, 40% had single-virus infections, 17% had coinfections, and 43% remained negative. The most common viruses were RV (25%), RSV (14%), AdV (13%), and influenza A virus (5%). Influenza virus, RSV, PIV type 3, and hMPV showed seasonal patterns.The data provide a better understanding of the viral etiology of hospitalized cases of pneumonia and demonstrate the usefulness of this multiplex assay in respiratory disease surveillance in South Africa.

The 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) spread rapidly worldwide following its discovery in Mexico and the United States [1]. The introduction of a novel pathogen requires the timely understanding of its virulence, transmission potential, and epidemiologic characteristics to inform public health policies and interventions. At the time of introduction of A(H1N1)pdm09 into Africa, the vast majority of A(H1N1)pdm09 infections reported elsewhere were among adolescents and adults, and disease had been generally described as mild to moderate in severity [2, 3]. Transmissibility was considered to be substantially higher than for seasonal influenza, with a secondary attack rate (SAR) of 22%–33%, compared with 5%–15% for seasonal influenza [3–5]. Revised estimates of the SAR of A(H1N1)pdm09 show that transmissibility is comparable to that of seasonal influenza strains concurrently circulating (8% and 9%, respectively) [6]. The serial interval (SI) of seasonal influenza is generally accepted to range from 2 to 4 days [7–9]. Retrospective estimates of the mean SI from the 1918 influenza pandemic include 1–3 days within closed study settings [10, 11] but range more widely (2–8 days) in community settings [10]. In a systematic review, Boelle et al summarized 13 previous studies of the mean SI of A(H1N1)pdm09 [12], reporting an overall SI estimate of 3 days (95% confidence interval, 2.4–3.6), which decreased to 2.6 days when accounting for tertiary transmission. These findings are, however, largely based on the observations from more-developed countries and do not incorporate data from Africa. In the early stages after A(H1N1)pdm09 introduction in South Africa, we conducted detailed investigations into laboratory-confirmed cases, with the objective of rapidly documenting the clinical presentation of illness, epidemiology, and transmissibility of the virus at the household level, all of which may differ from characteristics in more-developed countries, owing to South Africa's status as a developing country with relatively higher rates of underlying illness. Because of logistical limitations, and in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations to limit case finding and laboratory testing, these studies were restricted to investigation of the first 100 laboratory-confirmed infections. We report the findings of this study to, first, document the introduction of A(H1N1)pdm09 into South Africa and describe its characteristics when first introduced in the country and, second, to provide comments on the suitability of these rapid assessments in informing the public health response during the early stages of a pandemic.

Please cite this paper as: Van Kerkhove et al. (2011) Epidemiologic and virologic assessment of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic on selected temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere: Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(6), e487–e498. Introduction and Setting Our analysis compares the most comprehensive epidemiologic and virologic surveillance data compiled to date for laboratory-confirmed H1N1pdm patients between 1 April 2009 - 31 January 2010 from five temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere–Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa. Objective We evaluate transmission dynamics, indicators of severity, and describe the co-circulation of H1N1pdm with seasonal influenza viruses. Results In the five countries, H1N1pdm became the predominant influenza strain within weeks of initial detection. South Africa was unique, first experiencing a seasonal H3N2 wave, followed by a distinct H1N1pdm wave. Compared with the 2007 and 2008 influenza seasons, the peak of influenza-like illness (ILI) activity in four of the five countries was 3-6 times higher with peak ILI consultation rates ranging from 35/1,000 consultations/week in Australia to 275/100,000 population/week in New Zealand. Transmission was similar in all countries with the reproductive rate ranging from 1.2–1.6. The median age of patients in all countries increased with increasing severity of disease, 4–14% of all hospitalized cases required critical care, and 26–68% of fatal patients were reported to have ≥1 chronic medical condition. Compared with seasonal influenza, there was a notable downward shift in age among severe cases with the highest population-based hospitalization rates among children

Background. Data on the efficacy of trivalent, inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) in HIV-infected adults, particularly in Africa, are limited. This study evaluated the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of TIV in HIV-infected adults. Methods. In Johannesburg, South Africa, we undertook a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 506 HIV-infected adults. Subjects included 157 individuals who were antiretroviral treatment (ART) naive and 349 on stable-ART. Participants were randomly assigned to receive TIV or normal saline intramuscularly. Oropharyngeal swabs were obtained at illness visits during the influenza season and tested by shell vial culture and RT PCR assay for influenza virus. Immune response was evaluated by hemagglutinin antibody inhibition assay (HAI) in a nested cohort. The primary study outcome involved vaccine efficacy against influenza confirmed illness. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00757900. Results. The efficacy of TIV against confirmed influenza illness was 75.5% (95% CI: 9.2%-95.6%); with a risk difference of 0.18 per 100 person-weeks in TIV recipients. Among TIV recipients, seroconversion, measured by HAI titers, was evident in 52.6% for H1N1, 60.8% for H3N2, and 53.6% for influenza B virus. This compared with 2.2%, 2.2%, and 4.4% of placebo recipients (P < .0001). The frequency of local and systemic adverse events post-immunization was similar between study groups. Conclusions. TIV immunization is safe and efficacious in African HIV-infected adults without underlying co-morbidities. Further evaluation of effectiveness is warranted in severely immunocompromized HIV-infected adults and those with co-morbidities such as tuberculosis.

Background There is limited data on the epidemiology of influenza and few published estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Africa. In April 2009, a new influenza virus strain infecting humans was identified and rapidly spread globally. We compared the characteristics of patients ill with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus to those ill with seasonal influenza and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness during five influenza seasons (2005–2009) in South Africa. Methods Epidemiological data and throat and/or nasal swabs were collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) at sentinel sites. Samples were tested for seasonal influenza viruses using culture, haemagglutination inhibition tests and/or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 by real-time PCR. For the vaccine effectiveness (VE) analysis we considered patients testing positive for influenza A and/or B as cases and those testing negative for influenza as controls. Age-adjusted VE was calculated as 1-odds ratio for influenza in vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals. Results From 2005 through 2009 we identified 3,717 influenza case-patients. The median age was significantly lower among patients infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus than those with seasonal influenza, 17 and 27 years respectively (p

International audience; BACKGROUND: Madagascar was one of the first African countries to be affected by the 2009 pandemic of influenza A virus subtype H1N1 [A(H1N1)pdm2009] infection. The outbreak started in the capital city, Antananarivo, and then spread throughout the country from October 2009 through February 2010. METHODS: Specimens from patients presenting with influenza-like illness were collected and shipped to the National Influenza Center in Madagascar for analyses, together with forms containing patient demographic and clinical information. RESULTS: Of the 2303 specimens tested, 1016 (44.1%) and 131 (5.7%) yielded A(H1N1)pdm09 and seasonal influenza virus, respectively. Most specimens (42.0%) received were collected from patients 50 years old to be infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-2.6; P < .01). Although phylogenetic analyses of A(H1N1)pdm09 suggested multiple introductions of the virus into Madagascar, no antigenic differences between A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses recovered in Madagascar and those that circulated worldwide were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The high proportion of respiratory specimens positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 is consistent with a widespread transmission of the pandemic in Madagascar. The age distribution of cases of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection suggests that children and young adults could be targeted for interventions that aim to reduce transmission during an influenza pandemic.

Please cite this paper as: Van Kerkhove et al. (2011) Epidemiologic and virologic assessment of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic on selected temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere: Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(6), e487–e498. Introduction and Setting Our analysis compares the most comprehensive epidemiologic and virologic surveillance data compiled to date for laboratory‐confirmed H1N1pdm patients between 1 April 2009 ‐ 31 January 2010 from five temperate countries in the Southern Hemisphere–Argentina, Australia, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa. Objective We evaluate transmission dynamics, indicators of severity, and describe the co‐circulation of H1N1pdm with seasonal influenza viruses. Results In the five countries, H1N1pdm became the predominant influenza strain within weeks of initial detection. South Africa was unique, first experiencing a seasonal H3N2 wave, followed by a distinct H1N1pdm wave. Compared with the 2007 and 2008 influenza seasons, the peak of influenza‐like illness (ILI) activity in four of the five countries was 3‐6 times higher with peak ILI consultation rates ranging from 35/1,000 consultations/week in Australia to 275/100,000 population/week in New Zealand. Transmission was similar in all countries with the reproductive rate ranging from 1.2–1.6. The median age of patients in all countries increased with increasing severity of disease, 4–14% of all hospitalized cases required critical care, and 26–68% of fatal patients were reported to have ≥1 chronic medical condition. Compared with seasonal influenza, there was a notable downward shift in age among severe cases with the highest population‐based hospitalization rates among children