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Abstract A prognostic model to determine an association between survival outcomes and clinical risk factors, such as the Cox model, has been developed over the past decades in the medical field. Although the data size containing subjects’ information gradually increases, the number of events is often relatively low as medical technology develops. Accordingly, poor discrimination and low predicted ability may occur between low- and high-risk groups. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the predicted probabilities with three existing competing risks models in variation with censoring rates. Three methods were illustrated and compared in a longitudinal study of a nationwide prospective cohort of patients with chronic kidney disease in Korea. The prediction accuracy and discrimination ability of the three methods were compared in terms of the Concordance index (C-index), Integrated Brier Score (IBS), and Calibration slope. In addition, we find that these methods have different performances when the effects are linear or nonlinear under various censoring rates.

IntroductionPatients with acute kidney injury (AKI) receiving renal replacement therapy constitute the subgroup of AKI with the highest risk of mortality. Despite recent promising findings on the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in AKI, studies have not yet addressed the clinical implication of the NLR in this population. Therefore, we aimed to examine the prognostic value of NLR in critically ill patients requiring continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), especially focusing on temporal changes in NLR.MethodsWe enrolled 1,494 patients with AKI who received CRRT in five university hospitals in Korea between 2006 and 2021. NLR fold changes were calculated as the NLR on each day divided by the NLR value on the first day. We performed a multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis to assess the association between the NLR fold change and 30-day mortality.ResultsThe NLR on day 1 did not differ between survivors and non-survivors; however, the NLR fold change on day 5 was significantly different. The highest quartile of NLR fold change during the first 5 days after CRRT initiation showed a significantly increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.65; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.27–2.15) compared to the lowest quartile. NLR fold change as a continuous variable was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05–1.23).ConclusionIn this study, we demonstrated an independent association between changes in NLR and mortality during the initial phase of CRRT in AKI patients receiving CRRT. Our findings provide evidence for the predictive role of changes in the NLR in this high-risk subgroup of AKI.