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The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

Coastal refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (~21,000 years ago) have been hypothesized at high latitudes in the North Atlantic, suggesting marine populations persisted through cycles of glaciation and are potentially adapted to local environments. Here, whole-genome sequencing was used to test whether North Atlantic marine coastal populations of the kelp Alaria esculenta survived in the area of southwestern Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum. We present the first annotated genome for A. esculenta and call variant positions in 54 individuals from populations in Atlantic Canada, Greenland, Faroe Islands, Norway and Ireland. Differentiation across populations was reflected in ~1.9 million single nucleotide polymorphisms, which further revealed mixed ancestry in the Faroe Islands individuals between putative Greenlandic and European lineages. Time-calibrated organellar phylogenies suggested Greenlandic populations were established during the last interglacial period more than 100,000 years ago, and that the Faroe Islands population was probably established following the Last Glacial Maximum. Patterns in population statistics, including nucleotide diversity, minor allele frequencies, heterozygosity and linkage disequilibrium decay, nonetheless suggested glaciation reduced Canadian Atlantic and Greenlandic populations to small effective sizes during the most recent glaciation. Functional differentiation was further reflected in exon read coverage, which revealed expansions unique to Greenland in 337 exons representing 162 genes, and a modest degree of exon loss (103 exons from 56 genes). Altogether, our genomic results provide strong evidence that A. esculenta populations were resilient to past climatic fluctuations related to glaciations and that high-latitude populations are potentially already adapted to local conditions as a result.

The genomic era continues to revolutionize our understanding of the evolution of biodiversity. In phycology, emphasis remains on assembling nuclear and organellar genomes, leaving the full potential of genomic datasets to answer long-standing questions about the evolution of biodiversity largely unexplored. Here, we used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) datasets to survey species diversity in the kelp genus Alaria, compare phylogenetic signals across organellar and nuclear genomes, and specifically test whether phylogenies behave like trees or networks. Genomes were sequenced from across the global distribution of Alaria (including Alaria crassifolia, A. praelonga, A. crispa, A. marginata, and A. esculenta), representing over 550 GB of data and over 2.2 billion paired reads. Genomic datasets retrieved 3,814 and 4,536 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for mitochondrial and chloroplast genomes, respectively, and upwards of 148,542 high-quality nuclear SNPs. WGS revealed an Arctic lineage of Alaria, which we hypothesize represents the synonymized taxon A. grandifolia. The SNP datasets also revealed inconsistent topologies across genomic compartments, and hybridization (i.e., phylogenetic networks) between Pacific A. praelonga, A. crispa, and putative A. grandifolia, and between some lineages of the A. marginata complex. Our analysis demonstrates the potential for WGS data to advance our understanding of evolution and biodiversity beyond amplicon sequencing, and that hybridization is potentially an important mechanism contributing to novel lineages within Alaria. We also emphasize the importance of surveying phylogenetic signals across organellar and nuclear genomes, such that models of mixed ancestry become integrated into our evolutionary and taxonomic understanding.

Global habitat deterioration of marine ecosystems has led to a need for active interventions to halt or reverse the loss of ecological function. Restoration has historically been a key tool to reverse habitat loss and restore functions, but the extent to which this will be sufficient under future climates is uncertain. Emerging genetic technologies now provide the ability for restoration to proactively match adaptability of target species to predicted future environmental conditions, which opens up the possibility of boosting resistance to future stress in degraded and threatened habitats. As such, the choice of whether to restore to historical baselines or anticipate the future remains a key decision that will influence restoration success in the face of environmental and climate change. Here, we present an overview of the different motives for restoration – to recover or revive lost or degraded habitats to extant or historical states, or to reinforce or redefine for future conditions. We focus on the genetic and adaptive choices that underpin each option and subsequent consequences for restoration success. These options span a range of possible trajectories, technological advances and societal acceptability, and represent a framework for progressing restoration of marine habitat forming species into the future.