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Understanding and managing the response of marine ecosystems to human pressures including climate change requires reliable large-scale and multi-decadal information on the state of key populations. These populations include the pelagic animals that support ecosystem services including carbon export and fisheries. The use of research vessels to collect information using scientific nets and acoustics is being replaced with technologies such as autonomous moorings, gliders, and meta-genetics. Paradoxically, these newer methods sample pelagic populations at ever-smaller spatial scales, and ecological change might go undetected in the time needed to build up large-scale, long time series. These global-scale issues are epitomised by Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), which is concentrated in rapidly warming areas, exports substantial quantities of carbon and supports an expanding fishery, but opinion is divided on how resilient their stocks are to climatic change. Based on a workshop of 137 krill experts we identify the challenges of observing climate change impacts with shifting sampling methods and suggest three tractable solutions. These are to: improve overlap and calibration of new with traditional methods; improve communication to harmonise, link and scale up the capacity of new but localised sampling programs; and expand opportunities from other research platforms and data sources, including the fishing industry. Contrasting evidence for both change and stability in krill stocks illustrates how the risks of false negative and false positive diagnoses of change are related to the temporal and spatial scale of sampling. Given the uncertainty about how krill are responding to rapid warming we recommend a shift towards a fishery management approach that prioritises monitoring of stock status and can adapt to variability and change.

In the Southern Ocean, several zooplankton taxonomic groups, euphausiids, copepods, salps and pteropods, are notable because of their biomass and abundance and their roles in maintaining food webs and ecosystem structure and function, including the provision of globally important ecosystem services. These groups are consumers of microbes, primary and secondary producers, and are prey for fishes, cephalopods, seabirds, and marine mammals. In providing the link between microbes, primary production, and higher trophic levels these taxa influence energy flows, biological production and biomass, biogeochemical cycles, carbon flux and food web interactions thereby modulating the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Additionally, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and various fish species are harvested by international fisheries. Global and local drivers of change are expected to affect the dynamics of key zooplankton species, which may have potentially profound and wide-ranging implications for Southern Ocean ecosystems and the services they provide. Here we assess the current understanding of the dominant metazoan zooplankton within the Southern Ocean, including Antarctic krill and other key euphausiid, copepod, salp and pteropod species. We provide a systematic overview of observed and potential future responses of these taxa to a changing Southern Ocean and the functional relationships by which drivers may impact them. To support future ecosystem assessments and conservation and management strategies, we also identify priorities for Southern Ocean zooplankton research.

Climate change alters the extent and structure of sea-ice environments, which affects how they function as a habitat for polar species. Identifying sea-ice characteristics that serve as indicators of habitat quality will be crucial to the monitoring and management of climate change impacts. In the Southern Ocean, Antarctic krill is a key prey species and fishery target. Krill larvae depend upon sea-ice habitats to survive the winter and recruit to the population in spring. Existing observations of sea-ice characteristics lack sufficient spatiotemporal coverage to quantify which ones contribute to favourable overwintering habitat, leading to uncertainties in how current and future changes in sea ice affect krill populations. Here, we derive regional-scale indices of annual krill recruitment spanning 35 years across the southwest Atlantic. To develop meaningful indicators of sea-ice habitat, we selected variables from a high-resolution sea-ice model that are hypothesized as relevant for larval habitat use. The resulting correlations between recruitment and sea-ice indicators vary by region and show remote connections to sea ice that correspond with established theories of larval transport. Through an improved representation of sea-ice habitat quality, as compared with using more traditional satellite-derived variables such as sea-ice extent and duration, we highlight plausible regions of overwintering habitat. Our findings improve current understanding of how krill are likely responding to changing sea ice and support emerging views that larval habitat use is complex. Furthermore, regional variation in larval dependence on sea ice may provide pockets of resilience to change for the broader krill population.