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Mapping groundwater potential zones helps in precisely planning well drilling. The Meki Catchment is currently experiencing irrigation expansion and water scarcity challenges, creating a strong need for groundwater exploitation. The goal of this study was to identify groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) in the Meki Catchment using geospatial technologies to enhance water resource management and support sustainable development in the region. Eight thematic components were used in this analysis. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was applied to ensure consistency in judgments through paired comparisons. Weighted overlay analysis was then used to evaluate the GWPZs. The study found that out of the total Meki Catchment area (226,333.26 ha), 30.68% (69,448.31 ha) has high potential, and 34% (76,963.33 ha) has good potential. Validation was conducted using ground truth data, considering existing water point field data from borewells and springs. The results of this study can help prioritize strategies to ensure the sustainable use of groundwater in the area. Drilling organizations can utilize these findings as a resource for feasibility studies in groundwater prospecting projects to locate well sites. The validation results demonstrate that potential groundwater zones can be identified more accurately using GIS and RS approaches at a lower cost.

Study area: Southern Sections of Western Afar rift margin and associated rift floor. Study focus: The purpose of this study is to identify the source and mechanisms of groundwater recharge based on geological, hydrochemical, and environmental isotope studies. New hydrogeological insights: The investigation illustrate that the columnar jointed basalt was extended from the plateau to the rift margin. In addition, transverse structures trending NW-SE and NE-SW connect the plateau to the rift margin and the marginal grabens to the rift floor. The hydrochemical interpretations with EC and TDS shows that the groundwater from the plateau has evolved from Ca-dominated and slightly mineralized to Na-dominated and highly mineralized to the rift floor. Isotopically, the deep groundwater systems are depleted in the entire physiography in contrast to the shallow groundwater systems. Radon measurements are higher at the outlets of the marginal grabens and between the rift margin and the rift floor, suggesting groundwater feeds the river. A comprehensive analysis of the aforementioned results suggests that the deep circulating groundwater is recharged in the plateau and escarpment and chemically altered with increasing depth and along its preferential flow path into the rift floor. Therefore, the plateau area is the main source of recharge for the western Afar rift margin and associated rift floor, due to the presence of preferential pathways, mainly the columnar jointed basalts and cross-structures.

Abstract Climate models are basic tools to obtain reliable estimates of future climate change and its effects on the water resources and agriculture in given basin. However, all climate models are not equally valuable for all areas. Therefore, determining the most appropriate climate model for a specific study area is essential. This study examines the performance of 10 CORDEX-AFRICA-220 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), three downscaling institutional based ensembles mean (Reg ensemble, CCLM ensemble and REMOO ensemble) and the multi-model ensemble mean. The models were evaluated based on their ability in replicating the seasonal and annual rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature and inter-annual variability for the period of 1986–2005 using statistical metrics such as BIAS, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r), coefficient of variation (CV), Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and Taylor diagram. The findings indicated that HadREMOO, MPI-Reg4-7, HadReg4-7, Reg ensemble, and multi-model ensemble mean performed relatively better in representing the mean annual observed rainfall at the Adiramets, Debarik Ketema, Niguse Maystebri, and Zarima stations, respectively. Whereas, NorESM-CCLM, MPI-CCLM, NorESM-Reg4-7, and NorESM-REMOO exhibited a weak performance in reproducing the observed mean annual rainfall at the Adiramets, Debarik Ketema Niguse, Maystebri, and Zarima stations, respectively. Similarly, RCMs generally capture the mean annual maximum temperature of climatic stationsof Zarima subbasin well. Specifically, the MPI-Reg4-7 simulation performs well in representing the mean annual observed maximum temperature at Adiramets and Maytsebri stations, while the Debarik and Ketema Niguse stations exhibit superior performance in the HadReg4-7 simulation and the Zarima station shows better representation in the CCLM ensemble simulations. The majority of the model simulations exhibit good representation of mean annual minimum temperature at Adiramets, Debarik, and Zarima stations. Specifically, CanESM-RCM, HadReg4-7, REMOOensemble, multi-model ensemble, and Regensemble simulations perform better at Adiramets, Debarik, Ketema niguse, Maystebri and Zarima stations respectively. This suggests that these models may have biases or shortcomings in capturing the temperature values in the subbasin. Furthermore, NorESM-CCLM at Adiramets, Ketema niguse, and Zarima stations, NorESM-REMOO at Debarik station, and HadReg4-7 at Maystebri station demonstrate poor performance in representing the observed mean minimum temprature. Majority of the RCMs, all institutional based ensemble means and the multi-model ensemble mean simulations overestimate the observed mean annual rainfall of the Zarima subbasin with minimum bias of 0.02 mm at Ketema niguse HadReg4-7and maximum bias of 2.81 mm at Maytsebri MPI-CCLM simulation. Similarly, HadReg4-7 simulation of Ketama Niguse MPI-CCLM showed a minimum 0.02 mm and Maytsebri simulation kiremit season mean rainfall showed a maximum bias of and 2.99 mm. Regarding mean annual and kiremit season maximum and minimum temperature of the Zarima subbasin were overestimated by majority of the simulation and the ensemble means. The correlation (r) of observed and model simulated mean annual and kiremit season rainfall was strong (0.60–0.79) and very strong (0.80–0.99) in the majority of the simulations except Ketema niguse station mean annual and kiremit season rainfall simulations of MPI-REMOO, NorESM-Reg4-7; Debarik station kiremit season rainfall of NorESM-CCLM and NorESM-REMOO, MPI-Reg4-7 and MPI-REMOO, which showed moderate correlation. The performance of the RCMs, institutional based ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean were different in statistical metrics (BIAS, RMSE, r, CV and KGE) and Taylor diagram. Among the simulations and ensemble means, the multi-model ensemble mean was superiors in two or more of statistical metrics at each station of the Zarima subbasin except Maytsebri station kiremit season rainfall, where the CCLM ensemble was better. Consistently, the Taylor diagram showed that the multi-model ensemble was better in the replication of the areal annual and kiremit season rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature of the subbasin. This finding evidenced that selecting the best RCMs and ensemble mean is necessary for climate projection and climate change impact assessment study.

Understanding the factors that influence hydroclimate variability is crucial for developing sustainable water management strategies in dynamic environments. The Blue Nile Basin, a significant freshwater resource in Africa, is facing challenges related to hydroclimate changes that impact sustainable development. Since the 1970s, the hydroclimate patterns of the region have undergone notable changes, prompting the need for a review of the literature on hydroclimate variability of the basin. Therefore, this study aims to offer a brief overview of the latest literature on hydroclimate variability and changes in the Blue Nile Basin. Based on the review of hydroclimate studies in the basin, it is evident that there have been significant advancements in our understanding of this complex system. However, the review also highlights that there are still areas of research that require further development to provide more comprehensive knowledge of the basin's hydroclimate. The projected intensification of hydroclimate change throughout the 21st century underscores the urgency for continued research efforts. The observed warming trend in the temperature of the basin and the discrepancies amongst research outputs on precipitation changes are important areas that require further investigation. Additionally, the inconsistency in reported changes in the watershed's hydrology and streamflow across the basin emphasizes the need for continued research to understand the factors behind these changes. Overall, this review provides valuable insights into the current state of hydroclimate studies in the basin and highlights the key areas for future research efforts to enhance our understanding of this vital system.

Spatial recharge estimation uncertainty is directly proportional to uncertainty in input precipitation data Thus, the main objective of this study was to investigate the recharge uncertainty by using improved spatial rainfall observations. The physically based fully distributed hydrological model WetSpa was used to simulate 20,000 possible combinations of parameters for two model setup. The M1 model setup was developed based on the rainfall measurements obtained from rain gauge stations scattered in and around the Tikur-Wuha watershed in Ethiopia, while M2 model setup was developed using bias-corrected satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) based on Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) merged with relevant ground station records. The required parameter combinations were generated using Monte Carlo simulation stratified by applying Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). One hundred best performing parameter combinations were selected for each model to generate spatial recharge statistics and assess the resulting uncertainty in the recharge estimates. The results revealed that enhanced spatial recharge estimates can be produced through improved CHIRP-based SREs. The long-term mean annual recharge (218.29 mm) in the Tikur-Wuha watershed was estimated. Model parameter calibration performed using discharge measurements obtained from the Wosha rain gauge station located in the subcatchment area of the Tikur-Wuha watershed had a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.56. Seventy percent of the watershed showed a coefficient of variation (Cv)

A promising future development area to improve the accuracy of satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) is accessing merits from different sources of data through combining algorithms. The main objective of this study is to assess the accuracy and importance of the fused multistage approach of bias correction. Accordingly, two versions of resampled and spatially bias-corrected Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) estimates were merged with ground measurements using a conditional merging procedure. Results of applied performance measures (i.e. seven) on corrected and merged CHIRP SREs show that the Percent of Detection (POD) and Percent Volume Error (PVE) have improved. Depending on the combination of coupled stations for validation, up to 70 and 50% PVE improvement was achieved at some stations for wet and dry periods, respectively. Moreover, the bias-corrected and conditionally merged CHIRP SREs have outperformed the estimates by resampling CHIRP with station dataset (CHIRPS) over the sparsely populated western part of the watershed. However, the devised method was limited in considering dry-day events during bias correction, which in turn has affected the performance of the bias correction of the CHIRPS product. Finally, future research should concentrate on such methods of fusing to understand the benefits of various approaches and produce more precise rainfall records. HIGHLIGHTS The research provides a fused multi-staged approach for reducing errors in CHIRP and CHIRPS satellite rainfall estimates.; Application of parametric QM for spatial bias correction followed by conditional merging improves the quality of CHIRP SREs.; Bias-corrected and conditionally merged CHIRP estimate outperforms the estimates by CHIRPS.; Incorporating additional ground station records improves the estimates of SREs.;

Quantifying and characterizing the spatial distribution of freshwater availability and water scarcity plays an indispensable role in managing water resources in a basin. This study aimed at quantifying green and blue water resource availability using an eco-hydrological model under different land use land cover conditions between 2000–2010 and 2020 in the upper Awash basin, central Ethiopia. Further, the agricultural water scarcity is assessed for dominantly cultivated crops in the basin. The freshwater components such as the green water (GW) flow (∼1041–1240 mm/yr), blue water (BW) flow (277–304 mm/yr), and GW storage (809-872 mm/yr) were observed to be high in the western highlands compared to the central and eastern parts of the basin. The results of GW scarcity indices show low to moderate scarcity for rainfed crops, and moderate to significant BW scarcity for irrigated sugarcane. Integrating GW potential to reduce BW scarcity in the basin is thus crucial.

The rise in global freshwater consumption, inefficient water use and population growth are the main drivers of water scarcity and food insecurity. This study analyzed the green, blue and economic water productivity (GWP, BWP and EWP, respectively) of the rainfed (teff, maize and sorghum) and irrigated (sugarcane) crops along with green water scarcity (GWS) in the Upper Awash Basin using water footprints (WFs) approaches. Teff has the lowest average GWP (∼0.3 kg/m3) and the highest average WF (4205 m3/ton) between 2000 and 2010 with an average EWP of ∼0.3 USD/m3 which is higher than those of other rainfed cereal crops (maize and sorghum). The highest GWS of maize was recorded in Metehara (269 mm/growing period) and the lowest in Debrezeit (70 mm/growing period) with an intermediate value of 90 and 117 mm in Wonji and Melkassa, respectively. All the rainfed crops have lower EWP (less than 0.3 USD/m3) compared with the irrigated sugarcane in the basin. This study demonstrates that increasing the value per unit of green/blue water through increasing yield per unit of supply and switching from high to low WFs crops has significant implications for addressing the water scarcity problem by setting a WP benchmark in the basin. HIGHLIGHTS Green, blue and economic water productivity (WP) of crops was examined.; Eastern Upper Awash Basin depicted more green water scarcity than the western parts.; Teff has the lowest green WP compared with maize and sorghum.; Rainfed crops have lower economic WP than irrigated sugarcane.; This water footprint approach in quantifying WP can be used to establish the WP benchmarks in similar water-stressed basins in the world.;

Abstract Globally, hydroclimatic variables have been changed due to human activities and have an impact on agricultural production and water resource management. This study investigated the spatio-temporal variability of hydroclimatic variables in Zarima subbasin using rainfall and temperature data from 1984 to 2018 and stream flow data from 1990 to 2014. The data were analyzed using the coefficient of variation, standardized anomaly index, Mann–Kendall trend and Sen’s slope estimator test. The results showed that rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures of the Zarima subbasin varied spatially and temporally. The annual and Kiremit season rainfall and stream flow showed low to moderate variability (CV

IntroductionUrban sprawl in developing countries affects future sustainability concerns related to environment, ecology and cropland losses. This study aimed at identifying, classifying and quantifying the changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC) during the last two decades (2000–2020) and predict the decadal pattern for the next three decades (2030–2050), with particular emphasis on urban sprawl at the expense of cultivated land in the upper Awash basin of central Ethiopia.MethodsLandsat images were used to analyze the LULC change dynamics using hybrid image classification and maximum likelihood classifier techniques. The Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CAMC) Model was used to predict its future LULC change dynamics. A detailed analysis of the urban sprawl in the cities of Addis Ababa, Adama, and Mojo was also conducted.ResultsIt was observed that during the last two decades, settlements, particularly urban sprawls, substantially expanded at the expense of cultivated land, whereas the latter modestly expanded at the expense of forestland, bare land, and shrubland. From its size in 2000, the urban sprawl of Addis Ababa has grown in all directions towards cultivated land by more than six times in 2020 and is expected to become double of that by 2050 in the urban and peri-urban areas of the basin. Adama city has expanded by the same rate of 9.7% in the past two decades, while Mojo town has sprawled 9 folds between 2010 and 2020. The predicted percentage change in settlement for Addis Ababa and its neighboring districts within 22 km radius from the centroid shows a 40% expansion in 2030, 77% in 2040, and 87% in 2050 compared with the reference year 2020. Similarly, the Mojo town will expand significantly in 2030 (54%), 2040 (119%), and 2050 (by a staggering magnitude of 244%), while Adama will expand within the 12 km radius by 18%, 42%, and 117% in the next three respective decades.DiscussionThe rapid cultivated land conversions in the basin may contribute to major shifts in urban and peri-urban ecological environments. Our predictive LULC change maps and urban sprawling could be useful for developing effective and sustainable land-use policies for environmental and ecological management in the upper Awash basin.

Flood-vulnerable area identification as a measure of comprehensive flood risk management was investigated in Itang District, Ethiopia, using Probability Distribution and Analytical Hierarchy Process. The former provided a best fit to the extreme value analyses. According to water discharge levels, the region was mapped at 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 year intervals. The parameters processed were slope, elevation, land-use/land-cover, rainfall, discharge, and soil. Each criterion was evaluated with Analytical Hierarchy Process and mapped by GIS. Data were assorted into very high, high, moderate, low, and very low suitability classes representing 29.7%, 27.8%, 18.5%, 12.7%, and 11.4% inundation areas, respectively. The outcome was found to be extremely useful for evacuation planning, damage assessment, and loss estimation to minimize the disaster effects in the district.

This study attempts to delineate subsurface lineaments for the tectonically and volcanically active region of the Ziway-Shala Lakes basin, central Main Ethiopian rift. Most of the previously mapped subsurface structures in the region under consideration focus on delineating crustal structures thicknesses and Moho depths undulations. Moreover, surface structures in the same region were mapped using analysis of Digital Elevation Model image data. On the other hand, there are few studies that have targeted in mapping geologic structures lying at depth levels between the shallower and deeper subsurface. The objective of this research is thus to map the subsurface geologic structures/lineaments to an average depth of 3 km (crystalline basement layer depth) from surface using gravity data. These investigation results are validated by Digital Elevation Model extracted lineaments. Filtering techniques including derivative filters, upward-continuation and line module algorithm of PCI Geomatica are used to extract the gravity and topographic lineaments of the region. Orientation analyses of these subsurface and surface lineaments are made using line direction histogram of the QGIS software. Accordingly, the gravity subsurface lineaments mapped in this study are found to be dominantly oriented in the NNW-SSE to NW-SE and E-W direction on average. These results appear to be contrary to the NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending surface geologic structure mapped on the bases of actual field observation carried out by previous researchers and automatically extracted lineaments based on Digital Elevation Models data considered in this research. The subsurface lineaments mapped using gravity data are believed to govern groundwater dynamics within the basin and the adjacent basins in the area. These structural lineaments which are considered to be masked in the subsurface coincide with the orientation of the Mesozoic Ogaden rift as compared to the overlying surface structures which appear to coincide with the orientation of the Cenozoic Main Ethiopian rift.

Abstract Background The use of existing land use/cover type exerts more pressure on the natural dynamism of the watersheds and hydrology due to continued cultivation and mis-management of land resource. The objectives of this study was to assess the combined effects of land use/cover types and slope gradient on watershed hydrology in terms of sediment and nutrient losses/transport from HRU of each land use/cover types. Integrated soil and water assessment tools (SWAT) model with Arc-GIS was used for simulation of sediment and nutrient loss by using land use/cover, soil, slope and climatic data as input. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) for mean comparison and correlation was used for data analysis. Result Combined effects of urban land and slope gradient produced more sediment than other land use/cover types followed by cultivated land. In cultivated land as slope gradient increased values of sediment and nutrient losses also increased until it reaches to 30% slope and then declined. In Forest and grassland sediment loss increased until 15% slope then after declined, but in urban land as slope gradient increases sediment and nutrient loss are also increased. Conclusion Cultivated land and difference in its slope gradient had more significant effect on watershed dynamics and hydrology in terms of loss of fertile top soil from upland, downstream water quality reduction and sedimentation of water structures than others land use/cover types and need to avoid steep slope and continuous cultivation and implementing integrated watershed management strategies in order to keep the natural dynamism of the watersheds.

Quantitative analysis of potential field data are made in the Ziway-Shala lakes basin over an area bounded by 38°00′ E - 39°30′ E and 7°00′ N - 8°30’ N. Most previous geophysical studies in the region under consideration focus on mapping the deep crustal structures and undulation of the Moho depth. Only few studies are targeted at mapping the shallow subsurface structures. The main focus of this paper is mapping geometries of the major lithological and structural units of the shallow subsurface using gravity and magnetic data. The ultimate objective of the research is to understand the hydrogeological dynamics of the region through mapping interfaces geometries. Automatic inversions, 2D joint forward modeling and 3D inversion are the major techniques employed. The 2D Werner de-convolution based on both gravity and magnetic data along the rift axis showed source depths tending to deepen northwards. Source depths estimates determined by Source Parameter Imaging also showed similar tendency. This is further strengthened by the joint 2D forward modeling of gravity and magnetic data which showed the top of the basement is sloping northwards. The result of the 3D gravity interface inversion agrees with results of the above mentioned depth estimation techniques. Finally, the gravity power spectral analysis resulted in two depth estimates, 1.53 km and 2.87 km which approximate the positions of two density interfaces. The shallow depth interface is thought to presumably delineate the low density Fluvio-lacustrine sediments including the rift floor volcanic units and crystalline basement. Our investigation results agree with the results of previous seismic studies which identified low velocity (“sediment-volcanic”) horizon in the rift floor with low resolution. The information obtained with regard to water balance of the basin, salinity level of the lakes and the conceptual hydrological flow model appears to reveal that the groundwater flow in the study region is controlled by subsurface structures, particularly, the mapped interface topographies.