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OBJECTIVE:The Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduced reforms to mitigate adverse selection into and within the individual insurance market. We examined the traits and predicted medical spending of enrollees in California post-ACA. DATA SOURCES:Survey of 2,103 enrollees in individual market plans, on- and off-exchange, in 2014. STUDY DESIGN:We compared actual versus potential participants using data from the 2014 California Health Interview Survey on respondents who were individually insured or uninsured. We predicted annual medical spending for each group using age, sex, self-rated health, body mass index, smoking status, and income. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Average predicted spending was similar for actual ($3,377, 95 percent CI [$3,280-$3,474]) and potential participants ($3,257 [$3,060-$3,454]); however, some vulnerable subgroups were underrepresented. On- versus off-exchange enrollees differed in sociodemographic and health traits with modest differences in spending ($3,448 [$3,330-$3,565] vs. $3,175 [$3,012-$3,338]). CONCLUSIONS:We did not find evidence of selection into the overall insurance pool in 2014; however, differences by exchange status reflect the importance of including off-exchange enrollees in analyses and the pool for risk adjustment. California's post-ACA individual market has been a relative success, highlighting the importance of state policies and outreach efforts to encourage participation in the market.

ObjectiveVital signs are critical markers of illness severity in the emergency department (ED). Providers need to understand the abnormal vital signs in older adults that are problematic. We hypothesized that in patients age > 65 years discharged from the ED, there are abnormal vital signs that are associated with an admission to an inpatient bed within 7 days of discharge.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from a regional integrated health system of members age > 65 years during the years 2009 to 2010. We used univariate contingency tables to assess the relationship between hospital admission within 7 days of discharge and vital sign (including systolic blood pressure [sBP], heart rate [HR], body temperature, and pulse oximetry [SpO2 ] values measured closest to discharge) using standard thresholds for abnormal and thresholds derived from the study data.ResultsOf 104,025 ED discharges, 4,638 (4.5%) were followed by inpatient admission within 7 days. Vital signs had a greater odds of admission beyond a single cutoff. The vital signs with at least twice the odds of admission were sBP  101 beats/min (OR = 2.00 95% CI = 1.75-2.29), body temperature > 37.3°C (OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.90-2.41), and pulse oximetry

Background and objectiveWe directly compared sleep apnoea (SA) rates and risk of cardiovascular and mortality outcomes among SA patients with resistant hypertension (RH) and non-RH within a large diverse hypertension population.MethodsA retrospective cohort study between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2010 among hypertensive adults (age ≥ 18 years) was performed within an integrated health system. Rates of SA in RH and non-RH were determined. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to calculate OR for SA. Cox proportional hazard modelling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular and mortality outcomes between SA in RH versus SA in non-RH adjusting for age, gender, race, BMI, chronic kidney disease and other comorbidities.ResultsSA was identified in 33 682 (7.2%) from 470 386 hypertensive individuals. SA in RH accounted for 5806 (9.6%) compared to SA in non-RH 27 876 individuals (6.8%). Multivariable OR (95% CI) for SA was 1.16 (1.12, 1.19), 3.57 (3.47, 3.66) and 2.20 (2.15, 2.25) for RH versus non-RH, BMI ≥ 30, and males, respectively. Compared to SA in non-RH individuals, SA in RH had a multivariable adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.24 (1.13, 1.36), 1.43 (1.28, 1.61), 0.98 (0.85, 1.12) and 1.04 (0.95, 1.14) for ischaemic heart event (IHE), congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke and mortality, respectively.ConclusionWe observed a modest increase in likelihood for SA among RH compared to non-RH patients. Risks for IHE and CHF were higher for SA in RH compared to SA in non-RH patients; however, there were no differences in risk for stroke and mortality.

BackgroundCurrent evidence does not clearly identify the contribution of kidney function decline and mortality to racial disparities in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence. We used observed estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to project the time of onset of kidney failure and examined mortality to better understand these racial disparities.Study designRetrospective cohort.Setting & participantsAdult members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California in 2003-2009 with more than 2 serum creatinine tests and more than 180 days between tests: 526,498 whites, 350,919 Hispanics, 136,923 blacks, and 105,476 Asians.PredictorRace/ethnicity.OutcomesESRD (dialysis or transplantation); mortality.MeasurementseGFR decline was modeled using linear regression. Kidney failure was projected based on predicted eGFR

ObjectivesEarly death after emergency department (ED) discharge may signal opportunities to improve care. Prior studies are limited by incomplete mortality ascertainment and lack of clinically important information in administrative data. The goal in this hypothesis-generating study was to identify patient and process of care themes that may provide possible explanations for early postdischarge mortality.MethodsThis was a qualitative analysis of medical records of adult patients who visited the ED of any of six hospitals in an integrated health system (Kaiser Permanente Southern California [KPSC]) and died within 7 days of discharge in 2007 and 2008. Nonmembers, visits to non-health plan hospitals, patients receiving or referred to hospice care, and patients with do not attempt resuscitation or do not intubate orders (DNAR/DNI) were excluded. Under the guidance of two qualitative research scientists, a team of three emergency physicians used grounded theory techniques to identify patient clinical presentations and processes of care that serve as potential explanations for poor outcome after discharge.ResultsThe source population consisted of a total of 290,092 members with 446,120 discharges from six KPSC EDs in 2007 and 2008. A total of 203 deaths occurred within 7 days of ED discharge (0.05%). Sixty-one randomly chosen cases were reviewed. Patient-level themes that emerged included an unexplained persistent acute change in mental status, recent fall, abnormal vital signs, ill-appearing presentation, malfunctioning indwelling device, and presenting symptoms remaining at discharge. Process-of-care factors included a discrepancy in history of present illness, incomplete physical examination, and change of discharge plan by a third party, such as a consulting or admitting physician.ConclusionsIn this hypothesis-generating study, qualitative research techniques were used to identify clinical and process-of-care factors in patients who died within days after discharge from an ED. These potential predictors will be formally tested in a future quantitative study.

ObjectiveApproximately, 50-60% of patients with sleep apnea have hypertension. To explore a mechanism of this relationship, we compared its prevalence in a hypertensive population with and without hyperaldosteronism.MethodsUsing the Kaiser Permanente Southern California database, hypertensive individuals who had plasma aldosterone and plasma renin activity measured between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2007 were evaluated. Hyperaldosteronism was defined as an aldosterone : renin ratio more than 30 and plasma aldosterone more than 20 ng/dl or an aldosterone : renin ratio more than 50 (ng/dl : ng/ml per h). Hypertension was identified by International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) coding and sleep apnea was defined by ICD-9 coding or procedural coding for dispensation of positive airway devices.ResultsOf 3428 hypertensive patients, 575 (17%) had hyperaldosteronism. Sleep apnea was present in 18% (105) with hyperaldosteronism vs. 9% (251) without hyperaldosteronism (P

Syncope is a common reason for emergency department (ED) visits, and patients are often admitted to exclude syncope of cardiovascular origin. Population-based data on patterns and predictors of cardiac outcomes may improve decision-making. Our objective was to identify patterns and predictors of short-term cardiac outcomes in ED patients with syncope. Administrative data from an integrated health system of 11 Southern California EDs were used to identify cardiac outcomes after ED presentation for syncope from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2005. Syncope and cause of death were identified by codes from the International Classification of Disease, Ninth Revision. Cardiac outcomes included cardiac death and hospitalization or procedure consistent with ischemic heart disease, valvular disease, or arrhythmia. Predictors of cardiac outcomes were identified through multivariate logistic regression. There were 35,330 adult subjects who accounted for 39,943 ED visits for syncope. Risk of cardiac outcome sharply decreased following the 7 days after syncope. A 7-day cardiac outcome occurred in 893 cases (3%). Positive predictors of 7-day cardiac outcomes included age > or =60 years, male gender, congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cardiac arrhythmia, and valvular heart disease. Negative predictors included dementia, pacemaker, coronary revascularization, and cerebrovascular disease. There was an age-dependent relation between 7-day cardiac outcomes and arrhythmia and valvular disease, with younger patients (

Study objectiveWe identify predictors of 30-day serious events after syncope in older adults.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of older adults (age > or =60 years) who presented with syncope or near syncope to one of 3 emergency departments (EDs) between 2002 and 2005. Our primary outcome was occurrence of a predefined serious event within 30 days after ED evaluation. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of 30-day serious events.ResultsOf 3,727 potentially eligible patients, 2,871 (77%) met all eligibility criteria. We excluded an additional 287 patients who received a diagnosis of a serious clinical condition while in the ED. In the final study cohort (n=2,584), we identified 173 (7%) patients who experienced a 30-day serious event. High-risk predictors included age greater than 90 years, male sex, history of an arrhythmia, triage systolic blood pressure greater than 160 mm Hg, abnormal ECG result, and abnormal troponin I level. A low-risk predictor was a complaint of near syncope rather than syncope. A risk score, generated by summing high-risk predictors and subtracting the low-risk predictor, can stratify patients into low- (event rate 2.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4% to 3.6%), intermediate- (event rate 6.3%; 95% CI 5.1% to 7.5%), and high-risk (event rate 20%; 95% CI 15% to 25%) groups.ConclusionWe identified predictors of 30-day serious events after syncope in adults aged 60 years and greater. A simple score was able to stratify these patients into distinct risk groups and, if externally validated, might have the potential to aid ED decisionmaking.

Background and objectivesBlacks are over-represented among dialysis patients, but they have better survival rates than whites. It is unclear if the over-representation of blacks on dialysis is due to faster loss of kidney function or greater survival (or both) in predialysis stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD).Design, setting, participants & measurementsWe compared predialysis mortality, incidence of end stage renal disease (ESRD), and slopes of estimated GFR (eGFR) in 298 black versus 945 white male patients with moderate and advanced nondialysis-dependent CKD (NDD-CKD) from a single medical center. Mortality and ESRD incidence were compared in parametric survival models, and slopes of eGFR were assessed in mixed-effects models.ResultsBlacks had lower crude mortality and higher crude ESRD incidence. The lower mortality in blacks was explained by differences in case mix, especially a lower prevalence of cardiovascular disease, and the higher incidence of ESRD was explained by differences in case mix and baseline kidney function. The slopes of eGFR were similar in blacks and whites.ConclusionsLower mortality in black versus white patients is also observed in NDD-CKD and can be accounted for by differences in clinical characteristics. Higher mortality of black patients in earlier stages of CKD may result in the selection of a subgroup with fewer comorbidities and better survival in later stages of CKD. The higher crude ESRD rate in blacks appears to result from lower mortality in late stages of CKD, not faster progression of CKD.

Many individuals with diabetic nephropathy, the leading cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the United States, progress to stage 5 of CKD and undergo maintenance dialysis treatment. Recent data indicate that in up to one third of diabetic dialysis patients with a presumptive diagnosis of diabetic nephropathy, glycemic control improves spontaneously with the progression of CKD, loss of residual renal function, and the initiation of dialysis therapy, leading to normal-to-low hemoglobin A1c (

Despite the enormous cardiovascular disease epidemic among maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, total hypercholesterolemia seems paradoxically to be associated with better survival. It was hypothesized that similar paradoxic associations also exist for serum LDL, HDL, and triglycerides. A 3-yr (July 2001 through June 2004) cohort of 15,859 MHD patients was studied in the United States from DaVita dialysis clinics where lipid profile was measured in at least 50% of all outpatients during a given calendar quarter. Cox proportional hazard models were adjusted for case mix and surrogates of malnutrition-inflammation complex. Both total and LDL hypercholesterolemia showed a paradoxic association with better survival. Hypertriglyceridemia (>200 mg/dl) also showed a similar trend, but serum HDL cholesterol did not have any clear association with survival. The association between a low serum LDL 100 mg/ml) was associated with adjusted cardiovascular death hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 2.38; P = 0.02). Despite inverse associations between hyperlipidemia and survival, black MHD patients with high LDL show almost two-fold increase in cardiovascular death risk. Although these associations may not be causal, they call into question whether specific subgroups of dialysis patients are better targets for cholesterol-lowering therapy.

Abstract Background To understand racial and ethnic disparities in health care utilization and their potential underlying causes, valid information on race and ethnicity is necessary. However, the validity of pediatric race and ethnicity information in administrative records from large integrated health care systems using electronic medical records is largely unknown. Methods Information on race and ethnicity of 325,810 children born between 1998-2008 was extracted from health plan administrative records and compared to birth certificate records. Positive predictive values (PPV) were calculated for correct classification of race and ethnicity in administrative records compared to birth certificate records. Results Misclassification of ethnicity and race in administrative records occurred in 23.1% and 33.6% children, respectively; the majority due to missing ethnicity (48.3%) and race (40.9%) information. Misclassification was most common in children of minority groups. PPV for White, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, American Indian/Alaskan Native, multiple and other was 89.3%, 86.6%, 73.8%, 18.2%, 51.8% and 1.2%, respectively. PPV for Hispanic ethnicity was 95.6%. Racial and ethnic information improved with increasing number of medical visits. Subgroup analyses comparing racial classification between non-Hispanics and Hispanics showed White, Black and Asian race was more accurate among non-Hispanics than Hispanics. Conclusions In children, race and ethnicity information from administrative records has significant limitations in accurately identifying small minority groups. These results suggest that the quality of racial information obtained from administrative records may benefit from additional supplementation by birth certificate data.

Research on racial and ethnic disparities using health system databases can shed light on the usual health care and outcomes of large numbers of individuals so that health inequities can be better understood and addressed. Such research often suffers from limitations in race/ethnicity data quality. We examined the quality of race/ethnicity data in a large, diverse, integrated health system that repeatedly collects these data on utilization of services. We tested the accuracy of Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding for imputation of race/ethnicity data. Administrative race/ethnicity data were accurate as judged by comparison with self-report in adults. The Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding method produced imputation results far better than chance assignment for the four most common race/ethnicity groups in the health system: Whites, Hispanics, Blacks, and Asians. These results support renewed efforts to conduct studies of racial and ethnic disparities in large health systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We evaluated an alternative way to implement guidelines using an automated risk calculator and risk-based decision tool to calculate patients' risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and recommend therapies. We compared such an approach with traditional guidelines., Study Design: A retrospective cohort study of 1,506,109 Kaiser Permanente Southern California members 35 years or older., Methods: We estimated 3-year risks of fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke using an independently developed risk calculator, then graphically compared risks with observed outcomes. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve to assess discrimination, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to test fit. We compared the characteristics and outcomes of populations identified for medication therapy by the risk-based decision tool and traditional guidelines using bivariate statistics., Results: A risk score was obtained in 72% (1,082,158) of members. The risk calculator was fairly good in discrimination: the area under the curve was 0.774 (95% CI, 0.770-0.779) for myocardial infarction and 0.805 (95% CI, 0.801-0.808) for stroke. Predictiveness and fit was good based on graphical analysis and Hosmer-Lemeshow P < .0001. The risk-based decision tool identified high-risk patients for treatment who were not identified by traditional guidelines (3.80% of all those identified for statins, 3.04% for antihypertensives), as well as low-risk patients who were identified by guidelines (3.80% for statins, 2.51% for antihypertensives)., Conclusions: The risk calculator provided risk estimates in most patients and demonstrated fairly good discrimination and predictiveness. The risk-based decision tool identified high-risk patients for treatment not identified by traditional guidelines, as well as low-risk patients for whom treatment may be unnecessary.

Objectives: To identify self-reported reasons for not filling a new prescription for statin therapy., Study Design: A cross-sectional telephone survey., Methods: Potential participants were identified from a randomized, controlled trial among Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) members aged >24 years with no record of redeeming a new statin medication, defined as primary nonadherence. Among 1158 eligible patients, 98 were randomly selected and participated in a semi-structured telephone interview that included questions on whether the respondent redeemed their statin prescription, why the patient may have chosen not to use a KPSC pharmacy, reasons for not filling the prescription, use of non-prescription products for elevated cholesterol levels, and questions to assess health literacy., Results: At 12 weeks post-index prescription date, 75% of 98 respondents reported not filling their new statin prescription, 20% reported picking it up from a non-KPSC pharmacy, 4% had already picked up the prescription at a KPSC pharmacy, and 1% did not know if it had been filled. The 3 most commonly cited reasons for primary nonadherence were general concerns about taking the medication (63%), a decision to try lifestyle modifications (63%), and fear of side effects (53%). A substantial proportion (33%) of respondents reported inadequate health literacy., Conclusions: These data suggest the need for interventions that address patients' negative perceptions of statins while emphasizing the benefits of statin therapy for reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in formats accessible to those with limited health literacy.

Objectives: To evaluate the use of automated systems to prompt patients with diabetes mellitus to obtain overdue laboratory tests for its effectiveness in promoting test compliance and to compare letters, telephone messages, and combinations., Study Design: Randomized controlled trial., Methods: All subjects (N = 13,057) were adult members of Southern California Kaiser Permanente with diabetes and with no record of glycosylated hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and urinary microalbumin tests in more than 1 year. The effectiveness of automated telephone calls and letters was compared versus a no-contact control group using the following 5 intervention groups: letter, call, letter that is followed by a call 4 weeks later, call that is followed by a letter 4 weeks later, and letter-call-letter combination. Messages were in English and in Spanish. Adherence to all testing was compared at 8 weeks and 12 weeks after initial contact using chi(2) test and logistic regression analysis., Results: The proportions of each study group compliant with all tests were 18% to 19% among controls, 21% for a letter or a call, 25% for a letter-call or call-letter, and 26% for a letter-call-letter; letter-call and call-letter were significantly different versus controls (P <.001), and letter-call-letter was not significantly different versus letter-call. Older age was associated with compliance (P <.001)., Conclusions: The pairing of automated letters and telephone calls in any order was more effective than any single intervention in promoting compliance with diabetes monitoring tests. The relative cost of the letter-call and call-letter approaches to outreach should be considered to determine which is preferred in any given situation.

Objectives: To provide physicians with evidence-based recommendations for care at the point of service, using an automated system, and to evaluate its effectiveness in promoting prescriptions to prevent cardiovascular events., Study Design: Randomized controlled trial., Methods: Patients at risk for cardiovascular events who might benefit from angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) were identified from electronic data in a managed care organization and randomly assigned into 2 groups. Physicians seeing outpatients in the intervention group were faxed a sheet with pertinent patient data, including a recommendation to prescribe the indicated medication. In the control group, the data sheet did not include the recommendation. Dispensed prescriptions were compared between groups., Results: More than 4000 visits were observed for each medication type. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers were dispensed in 7.1% of visits in the intervention group versus 5.7% in the control group (P = .048) following the first patient-physician encounter. No significant difference was observed for statins (intervention, 8.1% vs control, 7.7%). Data for all patient-physician encounters and both medications were combined in logistic regression analysis. The odds ratio was 1.19 for a dispensed prescription in the intervention group and 1.54 for 2 or more visits versus 1 visit., Conclusions: An automated system that provides pertinent data and tailored recommendations for care at the point of service modestly increased prescription dispensing rates. Targeting patient-provider encounters to change provider behavior is challenging; however, even small effects can produce clinically important results over time.