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Interpolation and prediction have been useful approaches in modeling data in many areas of applications. The aim of this paper is the prediction of the next value of a time series (time series forecasting) using the techniques in interpolation of the spatial data, for the tow approaches kernel interpolation and kriging. We are interested in finding some sufficient conditions for the kernels and provide a detailed analyse of the prediction using kernel interpolation. Finally, we provide a natural idea to select a good kernel among a given family of kernels using only the data. We illustrate our results by application to the data set on the mean annual temperature of France and Morocco recorded for a period of 115 years (1901 to 2015)., Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables

We consider the problem of the annual mean temperature prediction. The years taken into account and the corresponding annual mean temperatures are denoted by $0,\ldots, n$ and $t_0$, $\ldots$, $t_n$, respectively. We propose to predict the temperature $t_{n+1}$ using the data $t_0$, $\ldots$, $t_n$. For each $0\leq l\leq n$ and each parametrization $\Theta^{(l)}$ of the Euclidean space $\mathbb{R}^{l+1}$ we construct a list of weights for the data $\{t_0,\ldots, t_l\}$ based on the rows of $\Theta^{(l)}$ which are correlated with the constant trend. Using these weights we define a list of predictors of $t_{l+1}$ from the data $t_0$, $\ldots$, $t_l$. We analyse how the parametrization affects the prediction, and provide three optimality criteria for the selection of weights and parametrization. We illustrate our results for the annual mean temperature of France and Morocco.

The aim of the present paper is to extend the large deviation with discontinuous statistics studied in \cite{BDE} to the diffusion $d\mathbf{x}^\varepsilon = -\{\mathbf{A}^\top (\mathbf{A} \mathbf{x}^\varepsilon - \mathbf{y}) + \mu sgn(\mathbf{x}^\varepsilon)\}dt + \varepsilon d\mathbf{w}$. The discontinuity of the drift of the diffusion discussed in \cite{BDE} is equal to the hyperplane $\{\mathbf{x} \in \mathbb{R}^d:\ x_1=0\}$, however, in our case the discontinuity is more complex and is equal to the set $\{\mathbf{x} \in \mathbb{R}^d:\ \prod_{i=1}^dx_i=0\}$.

Using posterior distribution of Bayesian LASSO we construct a semi-norm on the parameter space. We show that the partition function depends on the ratio of the l1 and l2 norms and present three regimes. We derive the concentration of Bayesian LASSO, and present MCMC convergence diagnosis.

de Gennes identified three regimes in the phenomenon of the Langevin equation wich includes Coulombic friction. Here we extend and precise this phenomenon to a constant external force., Comment: 10 pages and one figure

The data $(y_i,x_i)\in$ $\textbf{R}\times[a,b]$, $i=1,\ldots,n$ satisfy $y_i=s(x_i)+e_i$ where $s$ belongs to the set of cubic splines. The unknown noises $(e_i)$ are such that $var(e_I)=1$ for some $I\in \{1, \ldots, n\}$ and $var(e_i)=\sigma^2$ for $i\neq I$. We suppose that the most important noise is $e_I$, i.e. the ratio $r_I=\frac{1}{\sigma^2}$ is larger than one. If the ratio $r_I$ is large, then we show, for all smoothing parameter, that the penalized least squares estimator of the $B$-spline basis recovers exactly the position $I$ and the sign of the most important noise $e_I$., Comment: 9 pages, 10 figures

In this work we study, as the temperature goes to zero, the oscillation of Metropolis-Hasting's algorithm around the Basis Pursuit De-noising solutions. We derive new criteria for choosing the proposal distribution and the temperature in Metropolis-Hasting's algorithm. Finally we apply these results to compare Metropolis-Hasting's and simulated annealing algorithms.

We define a new basis of cubic splines such that the coordinates of a natural cubic spline are sparse. We use it to analyse and to extend the classical Schoenberg and Reinsch result and to estimate a noisy cubic spline. We also discuss the choice of the smoothing parameter. All our results are illustrated graphically., Comment: 29 pages, 6 figures