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Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous fruit fly, originally endemic to tropical and subtropical coastal eastern Australia, but now also widely distributed in temperate eastern Australia. In temperate parts of its range, B. tryoni populations show distinct seasonal peaks driven by changing seasonal climates, especially changing temperature. In contrast to temperate areas, the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni in subtropical and tropical parts of its range is poorly documented and the role of climate unknown. Using a large, historical (1940s and 1950s) fruit fly trapping dataset, we present the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni at nine sites across Queensland for multiple (two to seven) years per site. We correlate monthly trap data for each site with monthly weather averages (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) to investigate climatic influences. We also correlate observed population data with predicted population data generated by an existing B. tryoni population model. Supporting predictions from climate driven models, B. tryoni did show year-round breeding at most Queensland sites. However, contrary to predictions, there was a common pattern of a significant population decline in autumn and winter, followed by a rapid population increase in August and then one or more distinct peaks of abundance in spring and summer. Mean monthly fly abundance was significantly different across sites, but was not correlated with altitudinal, latitudinal or longitudinal gradients. There were very few significant correlations between monthly fly population size and weather variables (either for the corresponding month or for up to 3 months previously) for eight of the nine sites. For the southern site of Gatton fly population abundance was correlated with temperature. Results suggest that although climate factors may be influencing patterns of B. tryoni population abundance in southern subtropical Queensland, they are not explaining patterns of abundance in northern subtropical and tropical Queensland. In the discussion we focus on the role of other factors, particularly larval host plant availability, as likely drivers of B. tryoni abundance in tropical and subtropical parts of its range.

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Habitat instability associated with seasonal crop succession in broad-acre farming systems presents a problem for the conservation and utilisation of beneficial insects in annual field crops. The present paper describes two experiments used to measure the potential of seven plant species to be utilised as winter refuges to support and conserve the predatory bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker). In the first experiment, replicated plots of canola (Brassica napus ), red salvia (Salvia coccinea ), niger (Guizotia abyssinica ), linseed (Linum usitatissimum ), lupins (Lupinus angustifolius ), and lucerne (Medicago falcata ) were planted in a randomized experiment during Autumn 1998. Upon crop establishment, adults and nymphs of P. plagipennis were released into treatment plots and their numbers were assessed, along with those of their potential prey, throughout the ensuing winter months. Post-release sampling suggested that canola and niger retained a proportion of adult P. plagipennis , while niger, lucerne and canola retained some nymphs. The other plant species failed to support P. plagipennis nymphs and adults postrelease. In the second experiment, niger was compared with two lines of sunflower (Helianthus annus ). Both sunflower lines harboured significantly higher (P < 0.05) densities of P. plagipennis nymphs than did niger. The more successful refuge treatments (sunflower, niger and canola) had an abundance of yellow flowers that were attractive to pollinating insects, which served as supplementary prey on which P. plagipennis were observed to feed. Sunflower and niger also supported high densities of the prey insect Creontiades dilutus (Stal) and provided protective leafy canopies which supplied shelter during the winter months. The potential and limitations for using each plant species as a winter refuge to retain P. plagipennis during winter are discussed.

A problem with augmenting predatory bugs through mass release is the logistical difficulty of delivering nymphs onto the foliage of field crops. In this paper we examine postrelease establishment and dispersal of the nymphs of the predatory bug Pristhesancus plagipennis on soybean, cotton and sunflower in an effort to devise an appropriate strategy for field release. The effects of predator stadia and release rates on field establishment and within-crop-canopy dispersal after hand release were recorded in soybean, cotton and sunflower. Field establishment improved with the release of more-developed nymphs, with third instars providing the most appropriate compromise between field hardiness and rearing cost. Increased nymphal density at the point of release had little effect on nymphal dispersal throughout the crop canopy. The patterns of nymphal dispersal observed on the three crops suggest that crop-canopy architecture may have an effect on the ability of nymphs to spread out postrelease, as nymphs dispersed poorly in cotton and sunflower compared to soybean. To overcome poor dispersal of nymphs after release, a mechanical release method, where nymphs were mixed with vermiculite and delivered onto a target crop through a spinning disk fertiliser spreader, was tested, and provided similar nymph establishment rates and dispersal patterns as releasing nymphs individually by hand. The implications of nymph dispersal and field hardiness in regard to inundative field release techniques are discussed.

Third-instar nymphs of the Australian assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker), were released into cotton plots at two release densities and two crop growth stages to test their biological control potential. Release rates of 2 and 5 nymphs per metre row resulted in field populations of 0.51 and 1.38 nymphs per metre row, respectively, indicating that over 70% of nymphs died or emigrated within two weeks of release. Effective release rates of 1.38 nymphs per metre row reduced the number of Helicoverpa spp. larvae in the plots for a 7-week period. Crop yields were significantly greater in the plots to which P. plagipennis nymphs were released, with the effective release rate of 1.38 nymphs per metre row providing equivalent yields as insecticide treated plots. The data suggest that P. plagipennis has the capacity to reduce Helicoverpa spp. larvae densities in cotton crops when augmented through inundative release.

Third-instar nymphs of the Australian assassin bug, Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) were released into cotton and soybean plots at a number of release densities to test their biological control potential. The number of Helicoverpa spp. larvae in cotton was reduced with the release of three or more P. plagipennis nymphs per m crop row. In the soybeans, populations of green mirids, Creontiades dilutus (Stal), and looper caterpillars, Chrysodeixis spp., were significantly reduced when P. plagipennis were released at 2 nymphs per m crop row. The potential yield of cotton (but not soybean) was increased in the plots to which P. plagipennis were added. The data suggest that P. plagipennis has the capacity to be an effective biological control agent of soybean and cotton insect pests when released inundatively

Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) is a predator of larvae and nymphs of many pestiferous insects for which natural enemies are not commercially available. This paper describes a containerized mass-rearing method for P. plagipennis using hot water-killed larvae of Tenebrio molitor (L.) and Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner). In addition, the effect of P. plagipennis density during nymphal rearing and adult oviposition was investigated. The rearing method minimizes P. plagipennis cannibalism, avoids the need for live insect prey, and is space and labor efficient. Larvae of the yellow mealworm, T. molitor, were the most suitable prey for minimizing nymphal development time and mortality while producing insects with the highest body weight. When reared on a diet of T. molitor, the optimum rearing density was 20-27 nymphs per 5-liter container. This rearing density minimized nymphal mortality to 16-22%. The optimum density for oviposition was 16 adults per 5-liter container, which provided the best compromise between egg production and space utilization. (C) 2000 Academic Press.

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6–15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera are experienced yearly in the eastern cropping regions of Australia. Regression analysis was used to determine whether the size of the first generation in spring (G1), which is comprised mostly of immigrants from inland Australia, was related to monthly rainfall in inland winter breeding areas. Data from two long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri in New South Wales (NSW) and Turretfield in South Australia (SA) were used in the analyses. The size of G1 at Narrabri in each year was significantly regressed on the amount of rainfall in western Queensland and NSW in May and June. The size of G1 at Turretfield each year was significantly regressed on the amount of rain in May, June and July in western Queensland and NSW and also in the desert of central Western Australia. Low r2 values of the regressions suggest that rainfall data for more sites, as well as biological and other physical factors, such as temperature, evaporation, and prevailing wind systems, may need to be included to improve forecasts of the potential magnitude of the infestations in coastal cropping regions.

Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches at Narrabri, Australia, were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner). The size of the second generation was significantly related to the size of the first generation, to winter rainfall, which had a positive effect, and to spring rainfall which had a negative effect. These variables accounted for up to 96% of the variation in size of the second generation from year to year. Rainfall and crop hosts were also important for the size of the third generation. The area and tonnage of many potential host crops were significantly correlated with winter rain. When winter rain was omitted from the analysis, the sizes of both the second and third generations could be expressed as a function of the size of the previous generation and of the areas planted to lucerne, sorghum and maize. Lucerne and maize always had positive coefficients and sorghum a negative one. We extended our analysis to catches of H. punctigera (Wallengren), which declines in abundance after the second generation. Winter rain had a positive effect on the sizes of the second and third generations, and rain in spring or early summer had a negative effect. Only the area grown to lucerne had a positive effect on abundance. Forecasts of pest levels from a few months to a few weeks in advance are discussed, along with the improved understanding of the seasonal dynamics of both species and the significance of crops in the management of insecticide resistance for H. armigera.

The predatory capacity of the Australian assassin bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) was measured in the laboratory using a predation arena. Each juvenile instar of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) and Nezara viridula (L.) was presented as prey to each P. plagipennis instar to provide a series of predator/prey combinations. The number of insects killed or eaten by each predator instar was recorded for each predator/prey combination. The rate of predation on both prey species increased exponentially with predator development. First- and second-instar P. plagipennis were limited in their ability to capture prey larger than second-instar H. armigera and third-instar N. viridula. Third-, fourth- and fifth-instar P. plagipennis were able to prey on the widest spectrum of prey instars. None of the P. plagipennis nymphal stages were capable of preying on fifth instars of either H. armigera or N. viridula. The data suggest that nymphs of P. plagipennis have the potential to be used as an augmentative biological control agent against these pests.

Recent El Niño events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to El Niño. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships. Images Figure 1

For purposes of interstate and international fruit trade, it is necessary to demonstrate that in areas in which fruit fly species have not previously established permanent populations, but which are subject to introductions of fruit flies from outside the area, the introduced population once detected, has not become established. In this paper, we apply methodology suggested mainly by Carey (1991, 1995) to introductions of Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly), Ceratitis capitata Weid., and Queensland fruit fly (QFF) Bactrocera tryoni Froggatt (Diptera: Tephritidae) to South Australia, a state in which these species do not occur naturally and in which introductions, once detected, are actively treated. By analysing historical data associated with fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia, we demonstrate that: (i) fruit flies occur seasonally, as would occur in established populations, except there is no evidence of the critical spring generation of either species; (ii) there is no evidence of increasing frequency of outbreaks, trapped flies or larval occurrences over 29 years; (iii) there is no evidence of decreasing time between catches of adult flies as the years progress; (iv) there is no decrease in the mean number of years between outbreaks in the same locations; (v) there is no statistically significant recurrence of outbreaks in the same locations in successive years; (vi) there is no evidence of spread of outbreaks outwards from a central location; (vii) the likelihood of outbreaks in a city or town is related to the size of the human population; (viii) introduction pathways by road from Western Australia (for Medfly) and eastern Australia (for QFF) are shown to exist and to illegally or accidentally carry considerable amounts of fruit into South Australia; and (ix) there was no association between the numbers of either Queensland fruit fly or Medfly and the spatial pattern of either loquat or cumquat trees as sources of larval food in spring. This analysis supports the hypothesis that most fruit fly outbreaks in South Australia have been the result of separate introductions of infested fruit by vehicular traffic and that most of the resultant fly outbreaks were detected and died out within a few weeks of the application of eradication procedures. An alternative hypothesis, that populations of fruit flies are established in South Australia at below detectable levels, is impossible to disprove with conventional technology, but the likelihood of it being true is minimised by our analysis. Both hypotheses could be tested soon with newly developed genetic techniques.

Australian sawflies in the genus Perga have gregarious larvae which disperse to feed upon Eucalyptus foliage at night. To investigate possible polyethism in the larvae of P. dorsalis, we labelled individuals with oil paints and recorded their positions on consecutive nights. A subgroup of about 20% of the larvae preferentially occupied the outer positions in the resting colony and appeared to lead the foraging expeditions. Marking itself did not induce this leadership behaviour, and leaders were quick to regain outer positions if removed and placed in the centre of the colony. In the context of polyethism in pergid larvae, we discuss the non-viability of small colonies, differential attack rates by parasitoids and predators, petiole-chewing behaviour by leaders, and possible differences in the dispersal behaviour of larvae (in time) and adults (in space).