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Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R)-based wind retrieval techniques use the global positioning system (GPS) signals scattered from the ocean surface in the forward direction, and can potentially work in all weather conditions. An overview of recent progress made in the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) level-2 surface wind products is given. To this end, four publicly released CYGNSS surface wind products—Science Data Record (SDR) v2.1, SDR v3.0, Climate Data Record (CDR) v1.1, and science wind speed product NOAA v1.1—are validated quantitatively against high-quality data from tropical buoy arrays. The latest released CYGNSS wind products (e.g., CDR v1.1, SDR v3.0, NOAA v1.1), as compared with these tropical buoy data, significantly outperform the SDR v2.1. Moreover, the uncertainty among these products is found to be less than 2 m s−1 root-mean-squared difference, meeting the NASA science mission level-1 uncertainty requirement for wind speeds below 20 m s−1. The quality of the CYGNSS wind is further assessed under different precipitation conditions in low winds, and in large-scale convective regions. Results show that the presence of rain appears to cause a slightly positive wind speed bias in all CYGNSS data. Nonetheless, the outcomes are encouraging for the recently released CYGNSS wind products in general, and for CYGNSS data in regions with precipitating deep convection. The overall comparison indicates a significant improvement in wind speed quality and sample size when going from the older version to any of the newer datasets.

In this study, we investigate the tendencies of gamma parameters for particle size distributions (PSDs) containing snowflake aggregates in orographic, convective, and stratiform clouds, above snowstorms and above rainstorms, in temperatures ranging from 0° to −45°C. We find a strong relationship between μ and Λ but no dependence on temperature. Higher μ are observed during the experiments sampling winter snowstorms, and lower μ are observed during experiments sampling frozen clouds above convective and orographic storms. We find that a gamma function with a μ of −1.25 provides the best average representation of PSD shape and the most accurate representation of PSD moments related to mass and reflectivity. We also provide a lookup table of maximum particle size boundaries that can be used to parameterize incomplete gamma functions with negative μ values. Significance Statement In many weather models and satellite retrieval algorithms, frozen clouds and precipitation are governed by the same assumptions even though they develop through different growth processes. This paper provides recommendations for snowflake aggregate size distributions that reflect natural conditions, and these recommended assumptions are demonstrated to improve estimates of mass and radar reflectivity. We studied a variety of storms, such as thunderstorms, snow storms, and winter rainstorms, and we found that our model for snowflake aggregates was nearly identical in all observed conditions.

Atmospheric deep moist convection has emerged as one of the most challenging topics for numerical weather prediction, due to its chaotic process of development and multiscale physical interactions. This study examines the dynamics and predictability of a weakly organized linear convective system using convection permitting EnKF analysis and forecasts with assimilating all-sky satellite radiances from a water vapor sensitive band of the Advanced Baseline Imager on GOES-16. The case chosen occurred over the Gulf of Mexico on 11 June 2017 during the NASA Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX) field campaign. Analysis of the water vapor and dynamic ensemble covariance structures revealed that meso-α-scale (2000–200 km) and meso-β-scale (200–20 km) initial features helped to constrain the general location of convection with a few hours of lead time, contributing to enhancing convective activity, but meso-γ-scale (20–2 km) or even-smaller-scale features with less than 30-min lead time were identified to be essential for capturing individual convective storms. The impacts of meso-α-scale initial features on the prediction of particular individual convective cells were found to be classified into two regimes; in a relatively dry regime, the meso-α-scale environment needs to be moist enough to support the development of the convection of interest, but in a relatively wet regime, a drier meso-α-scale environment is preferable to suppress the surrounding convective activity. This study highlights the importance of high-resolution initialization of moisture fields for the prediction of a quasi-linear tropical convective system, as well as demonstrating the accuracy that may be necessary to predict convection exactly when and where it occurs.

Forecast observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted to assess the potential impact of geostationary microwave (GeoMW) sounder observations on numerical weather prediction forecasts. A regional OSSE is conducted using a tropical cyclone (TC) case that is very similar to Hurricane Harvey (2017), as hurricanes are among the most devastating of weather-related natural disasters, and hurricane intensity continues to pose a significant challenge for numerical weather prediction. A global OSSE is conducted to assess the potential impact of a single GeoMW sounder centered over the continental United States versus two sounders positioned at the current locations of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) East and West. It is found that assimilation of GeoMW soundings result in better characterization of the TC environment, especially before and during intensification, which leads to significant improvements in forecasts of TC track and intensity. TC vertical structure (warm core thermal perturbation and horizontal wind distribution) is also substantially improved, as are the surface wind and precipitation extremes. In the global OSSE, assimilation of GeoMW soundings leads to slight improvement globally and significant improvement regionally, with regional impact equal to or greater than nearly all other observation types. Significance Statement This work seeks to determine the impact of a new geostationary microwave (GeoMW) sounder on tropical cyclone forecasts in particular, and on weather forecasts in general. It does so by assimilating simulated GeoMW sounder data into two different forecast models: one global and one regional. The data have a small positive impact globally, and a significant positive impact over the region viewed by the GeoMW instrument. In particular, assimilation of GeoMW data has a significant and positive impact on forecasts of tropical cyclone track, strength, and structure.

Vertical velocities and microphysical processes within deep convection are intricately linked, having wide-ranging impacts on water and mass vertical transport, severe weather, extreme precipitation, and the global circulation. The goal of this research is to investigate the functional form of the relationship between vertical velocity (w) and microphysical processes that convert water vapor into condensed water (M) in deep convection. We examine an ensemble of high-resolution simulations spanning a range of tropical and midlatitude environments, a variety of convective organizational modes, and different model platforms and microphysics schemes. The results demonstrate that the relationship between w and M is robustly linear, with the slope of the linear fit being primarily a function of temperature and secondarily a function of supersaturation. The R2 of the linear fit is generally above 0.6 except near the freezing and homogeneous freezing levels. The linear fit is examined both as a function of local in-cloud temperature and environmental temperature. The results for in-cloud temperature are more consistent across the simulation suite, although environmental temperatures are more useful when considering potential observational applications. The linear relationship between w and M is substituted into the condensate tendency equation and rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for w. The performance of the diagnostic equation is tested in several simulations, and it is found to diagnose the storm-scale updraft speeds to within 1 m s−1 throughout the upper half of the clouds. Potential applications of the linear relationship between w and M and the diagnostic w equation are discussed.

Much of the errors of atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) may be a consequence of algorithms not incorporating dynamical information. A physics-informed, artificial intelligence algorithm was developed that corrects errors of moisture tracking AMV (from the movement of water vapor) using numerical weather prediction (NWP) fields. The University of Arizona (UA) algorithm uses a variational method as a first step (fsUA); the second step then filters the first-stage AMVs using a random forest model that learns the error correction from NWP fields. The UA algorithm is compared with a traditional image feature tracking algorithm (JPL) using a global nature run as the “ground truth.” Experiments use global all-sky humidity fields at 500 and 850 hPa for 1–3 January 2006 and 1–3 July 2006. UA outputs AMVs with root-mean-square vector differences (RMSVDs) of 2 m s−1 for the tropics and ∼2–3 m s−1 for midlatitudes and the poles, whereas JPL outputs much higher RMSVDs of ∼3 m s−1 for the tropics and ∼3–9 m s−1 for the midlatitudes and poles. Although the algorithm fsUA produces approximately the same global RMSVDs as the JPL algorithm, fsUA has a higher resolution since it outputs an AMV per pixel, whereas the JPL algorithm uses a target box that effectively smooths the vectors. Furthermore, UA’s RMSVDs are lower than the intrinsic error (calculated from the differences between two reanalysis datasets). Even for error-prone regions with low moisture gradients and where winds are oriented along moisture isolines, UA’s absolute speed difference with “truth” stays within ∼3 m s−1.

Surface wind plays a crucial role in many local/regional weather and climate processes, especially through the exchanges of energy, mass, and momentum across Earth’s surface. However, there is a lack of consistent observations with continuous coverage over the global tropical ocean. To fill this gap, the NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission was launched in December 2016, consisting of a constellation of eight small spacecrafts that remotely sense near-surface wind speed over the tropical and subtropical oceans with relatively high sampling rates both temporally and spatially. This current study uses data obtained from the Tropical Moored Buoy Arrays to quantitatively characterize and validate the CYGNSS derived winds over the tropical Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans. The validation results show that the uncertainty in CYGNSS wind speed, as compared with these tropical buoy data, is less than 2 m s−1 root-mean-square difference, meeting the NASA science mission level-1 uncertainty requirement for wind speeds below 20 m s−1. The quality of the CYGNSS wind is further assessed under different precipitation conditions, and in convective cold-pool events, identified using buoy rain and temperature data. Results show that CYGNSS winds compare fairly well with buoy observations in the presence of rain, though at low wind speeds the presence of rain appears to cause a slight positive wind speed bias in the CYGNSS data. The comparison indicates the potential utility of the CYGNSS surface wind product, which in turn may help to unravel the complexities of air–sea interaction in regions that are relatively undersampled by other observing platforms.

Latent and sensible heat fluxes over the oceans are believed to play an important role in the genesis and evolution of marine-based extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and affect rapid cyclogenesis. Observations of ocean surface heat fluxes are limited from existing in situ and remote sensing platforms, which may not offer sufficient spatial and temporal resolution. In addition, substantial precipitation frequently veils the ocean surface around ETCs, limiting the capacity of spaceborne instruments to observe the surface processes within maturing ETCs. Although designed as a tropics-focused mission, the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) can observe ocean surface wind speed and heat fluxes within a notable quantity of low-latitude extratropical fronts and cyclones. These observations can assist in understanding how surface processes may play a role in cyclogenesis and evolution. This paper illustrates CYGNSS’s capability to observe extratropical cyclones manifesting in various ocean basins throughout the globe and shows that the observations provide a robust sample of ETCs winds and surface fluxes, as compared with a reanalysis dataset.

Wind-tracking algorithms produce atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) by tracking clouds or water vapor across spatial–temporal fields. Thorough error characterization of wind-tracking algorithms is critical in properly assimilating AMVs into weather forecast models and climate reanalysis datasets. Uncertainty modeling should yield estimates of two key quantities of interest: bias, the systematic difference between a measurement and the true value, and standard error, a measure of variability of the measurement. The current process of specification of the errors in inverse modeling is often cursory and commonly consists of a mixture of model fidelity, expert knowledge, and need for expediency. The method presented in this paper supplements existing approaches to error specification by providing an error characterization module that is purely data-driven. Our proposed error characterization method combines the flexibility of machine learning (random forest) with the robust error estimates of unsupervised parametric clustering (using a Gaussian mixture model). Traditional techniques for uncertainty modeling through machine learning have focused on characterizing bias but often struggle when estimating standard error. In contrast, model-based approaches such as k-means or Gaussian mixture modeling can provide reasonable estimates of both bias and standard error, but they are often limited in complexity due to reliance on linear or Gaussian assumptions. In this paper, a methodology is developed and applied to characterize error in tracked wind using a high-resolution global model simulation, and it is shown to provide accurate and useful error features of the tracked wind.

This study applies an idealized modeling framework, alongside a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to explore which combinations of upstream environmental conditions and cloud microphysical parameter values can produce a particular precipitation distribution over an idealized two-dimensional, bell-shaped mountain. Simulations focus on orographic precipitation produced when an atmospheric river interacts with topography. MCMC-based analysis reveals that different combinations of parameter values produce a similar precipitation distribution, with the most influential parameters being relative humidity (RH), horizontal wind speed (U), surface potential temperature (θsfc), and the snow fall speed coefficient (As). RH, U, and As exhibit interdependence: changes in one or more of these factors can be mitigated by compensating changes in the other(s) to produce similar orographic precipitation rates. The results also indicate that the parameter sensitivities and relationships can vary for spatial subregions and given different environmental conditions. In particular, high θsfc values are more likely to produce the target precipitation rate and spatial distribution, and thus the ensemble of simulations shows a preference for liquid precipitation at the surface. The results presented here highlight the complexity of orographic precipitation controls, and have implications for flood and water management, observational efforts, and climate change.

Global Bayesian optimization (GBO) is a derivative-free optimization method that is used widely in the tech-industry to optimize objective functions that are expensive to evaluate, numerically or otherwise. We discuss the use of GBO in ensemble data assimilation (DA), where the goal is to update the state of a numerical model in view of noisy observations. Specifically, we consider three tasks: (i) the estimation of model parameters; (ii) the tuning of localization and inflation in ensemble DA; (iii) doing both, i.e. estimating model parameters while simultaneously tuning the localization and inflation of the ensemble DA. For all three tasks, the GBO works ‘offline’, i.e. a set of ‘training’ observations are used within GBO to determine appropriate model or localization/inflation parameters, which are subsequently deployed within an ensemble DA system. Because of the offline nature of the technique, GBO can easily be combined with existing DA systems and it can effectively decouple (nearly) linear/Gaussian aspects of a problem from highly nonlinear/non-Gaussian ones. We illustrate the use of GBO in simple numerical experiments with the classical Lorenz problems. Our main goals are to introduce GBO in the context of ensemble DA and to spark an interest in GBO and its uses for streamlining important tasks in ensemble DA.

We develop a methodology for identification of candidate observables that best constrain the parameterization of physical processes in numerical models. This methodology consists of three steps: (i) identifying processes that significantly impact model results, (ii) identifying observables that best constrain the influential processes, and (iii) investigating the sensitivity of the model results to the measurement error and vertical resolution of the constraining observables. This new methodology is applied to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory stochastic multiplume Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (JPL-EDMF) model for two case studies representing nonprecipitating marine stratocumulus and marine shallow convection. The uncertainty of physical processes is characterized with uncertainty of model parameters. We find that the most uncertain processes in the JPL-EDMF model are related to the representation of lateral entrainment for convective plumes and parameterization of mixing length scale for the eddy-diffusivity part of the model. The results show a strong interaction between these uncertain processes. Measurements of the water vapor profile for shallow convection and of the cloud fraction profile for the stratocumulus case are among those measurements that best constrain the uncertain JPL-EDMF processes. The interdependence of the required vertical resolution and error characteristics of the observational system are shown. If the observations are associated with larger error, their vertical resolution has to be finer and vice versa. We suggest that the methodology and results presented here provide an objective basis for defining requirements for future observing systems such as future satellite missions to observe clouds and the planetary boundary layer.

Remote sensing instruments are heavily used to provide observations for both the operational and research communities. These sensors do not provide direct observations of the desired atmospheric variables, but instead, retrieval algorithms are necessary to convert the indirect observations into the variable of interest. It is critical to be aware of the underlying assumptions made by many retrieval algorithms, including that the retrieval problem is often ill posed and that there are various sources of uncertainty that need to be treated properly. In short, the retrieval challenge is to invert a set of noisy observations to obtain estimates of atmospheric quantities. The problem is often complicated by imperfect forward models, by imperfect prior knowledge, and by the existence of nonunique solutions. Optimal estimation (OE) is a widely used physical retrieval method that combines measurements, prior information, and the corresponding uncertainties based on Bayes’s theorem to find an optimal solution for the atmospheric state. Furthermore, OE also allows the relative contributions of the different sources of error to the uncertainty in the final retrieved atmospheric state to be understood. Here, we provide a novel Python library to illustrate the use of OE for inverse problems in the atmospheric sciences. We introduce two example problems: how to retrieve drop size distribution parameters from radar observations and how to retrieve the temperature profile from ground-based microwave sensors. Using these examples, we discuss common pitfalls, how the various error sources impact the retrieval, and how the quality of the retrieval results can be quantified.

The NOAA Science Advisory Board appointed a task force to prepare a white paper on the use of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Considering the importance and timeliness of this topic and based on this white paper, here we briefly review the use of OSSEs in the United States, discuss their values and limitations, and develop five recommendations for moving forward: national coordination of relevant research efforts, acceleration of OSSE development for Earth system models, consideration of the potential impact on OSSEs of deficiencies in the current data assimilation and prediction system, innovative and new applications of OSSEs, and extension of OSSEs to societal impacts. OSSEs can be complemented by calculations of forecast sensitivity to observations, which simultaneously evaluate the impact of different observation types in a forecast model system.

A technology revolution in Earth observation sensor design is occurring. This revolution in part is associated with the emergence of CubeSat platforms that have forced a de facto standardization on the volume and power into which sensors have to fit. The extent that small sensors can indeed provide similar or replacement capabilities compared to larger and more expensive counterparts has barely been demonstrated and any loss of capability of smaller systems weighed against the gains in costs and new potential capabilities offered by implementing them with a more distributed observing strategy also has not yet been embraced. This paper provides four examples of observations made with prototype miniaturized observing systems, including from CubeSats, that offer a glimpse of this emerging sensor revolution and a hint at future observing system design.

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

It has long been known that model physics uncertainty can contribute as much or more to errors in forecasting and data assimilation as errors in initial conditions. Many studies have attempted to include the effects of model physics uncertainty in data assimilation by introducing static perturbations to model parameters. In such studies, parameter values are modified at the beginning of a simulation and remain unchanged throughout the duration of the forecast. Uncertainty is spanned by generating an ensemble of forecasts, each member having a different set of parameter values. Other studies have implemented dynamic perturbations to parameters, introducing methods that modify parameter values online in a stochastic fashion. We present here the results of a study that investigates the sensitivity of convective cloud structures to static and stochastic cloud microphysical parameter perturbations. Static parameter values are drawn from a database produced by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, while stochastic perturbations are applied via a stochastically perturbed parameterization (SPP) scheme. Both static parameter perturbations and SPP are applied to multiple microphysical parameters within a Lagrangian column model, used in several prior published studies. The 1D column microphysics model is forced with prescribed time-varying profiles of temperature, humidity and vertical velocity in such a way as to emulate the environment inside of a convective storm. This modeling framework allows for investigation of the effect of changes in model physics parameters on the model output in isolation from any feedback to the cloud-scale dynamics. The results are evaluated in terms of changes to the ensemble mean and variance of time evolving profiles of hydrometeor mass quantities, the microphysics processes within the model as well as in terms of the simulated column integral microphysics-sensitive satellite-based observables. The outcomes of our experiments indicate a high degree of sensitivity of the to the way in which the SPP scheme is implemented. In particular, the distributions from which parameters are drawn, as well as the decorrelation time scale, have a large effect on the simulation outcomes. We discuss the results of SPP, compare with our static perturbation experiments, and note the implications for convective scale data assimilation.

The recent successful space-borne demonstration of a miniaturized CubeSat precipitation radar is highlighted. The low cost of such a radar, together with the availability of small satellite, platforms to carry it, now make it feasible to consider employing a more distributed approach to observe important atmospheric processes that relate to precipitation. An approach to quantify the transport of water and air by deep convection is described based on a clustering of small radar satellites providing measurements seconds apart. This strategy now adds time as a new dimension for observing such processes. A mission concept, referred to as D-train, comprised of a train of three satellites 30, 90, and 120 s apart is described, and the expected performance of it for providing measures of convective transport is examined based on a large ensemble of simulations of convection with an advanced cloud-resolving model.