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Abstract Automated construction of location graphs is instrumental but challenging, particularly in logistics optimisation problems and agent-based movement simulations. Hence, we propose an algorithm for automated construction of location graphs, in which vertices correspond to geographic locations of interest and edges to direct travelling routes between them. Our approach involves two steps. In the first step, we use a routing service to compute distances between all pairs of L locations, resulting in a complete graph. In the second step, we prune this graph by removing edges corresponding to indirect routes, identified using the triangle inequality. The computational complexity of this second step is $$\mathscr{O}(L^3)$$ O ( L 3 ) , which enables the computation of location graphs for all towns and cities on the road network of an entire continent. To illustrate the utility of our algorithm in an application, we constructed location graphs for four regions of different size and road infrastructures and compared them to manually created ground truths. Our algorithm simultaneously achieved precision and recall values around 0.9 for a wide range of the single hyperparameter, suggesting that it is a valid approach to create large location graphs for which a manual creation is infeasible.

We present our agent-based CoronAvirus Lifelong Modelling and Simulation (CALMS) model that aspires to predict the lifelong impacts of Covid-19 on the health and economy of a population. CALMS considers individual characteristics as well as comorbidities in calculating the risk of infection and severe disease. We conduct two sets of experiments aiming at demonstrating the validity and capabilities of CALMS. We run simulations retrospectively and validate the model outputs against hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities in a UK population for the period between March and September 2020. We then run simulations for the lifetime of the cohort applying a variety of targeted intervention strategies and compare their effectiveness against the baseline scenario where no intervention is applied. Four scenarios are simulated with targeted vaccination programmes and periodic lockdowns. Vaccinations are targeted first at individuals based on their age and second at vulnerable individuals based on their health status. Periodic lockdowns, triggered by hospitalisations, are tested with and without vaccination programme in place. Our results demonstrate that periodic lockdowns achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 6-8% compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £173 million per 1,000 people and targeted vaccination programmes achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 89-90%, compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £51,924 per 1,000 people. We conclude that periodic lockdowns alone are ineffective at reducing health-related outputs over the long-term and that vaccination programmes which target only the clinically vulnerable are sufficient in providing healthcare protection for the population as a whole.

This paper presents the components and integrated outcome of a system that aims to achieve early detection, monitoring and mitigation of pandemic outbreaks. The architecture of the platform aims at providing a number of pandemic-response-related services, on a modular basis, that allows for the easy customization of the platform to address user’s needs per case. This customization is achieved through its ability to deploy only the necessary, loosely coupled services and tools for each case, and by providing a common authentication, data storage and data exchange infrastructure. This way, the platform can provide the necessary services without the burden of additional services that are not of use in the current deployment (e.g., predictive models for pathogens that are not endemic to the deployment area). All the decisions taken for the communication and integration of the tools that compose the platform adhere to this basic principle. The tools presented here as well as their integration is part of the project STAMINA.

We present a validation study comparing results from a patient-specific lattice-Boltzmann simulation to transcranial Doppler (TCD) velocity measurements in four different planes of the middle cerebral artery (MCA). As part of the study, we compared simulations using a Newtonian and a Carreau-Yasuda rheology model. We also investigated the viability of using downscaled velocities to reduce the required resolution. Simulations with unscaled velocities predict the maximum flow velocity with an error of less than 9%, independent of the rheology model chosen. The accuracy of the simulation predictions worsens considerably when simulations are run at reduced velocity, as is for example the case when inflow velocities from healthy individuals are used on a vascular model of a stroke patient. Our results demonstrate the importance of using directly measured and patient-specific inflow velocities when simulating blood flow in MCAs. We conclude that localized TCD measurements together with predictive simulations can be used to obtain flow estimates with high fidelity over a larger region, and reduce the need for more invasive flow measurement procedures.

We consider a multi-agent model of a simple economical system and study the impacts of a wave of immigrants on the stability of the system. Our model couples a labor market with a goods market. We first create a stable economy with N agents and study the impact of adding n new workers in the system. The time to reach a new equilibrium market is found to obey a power law in n. The new wages and market prices are observed to decrease as 1/n, whereas the wealth of agents remains unchanged.

Science hackathons can help academics, particularly those in the early stage of their careers, to build collaborations and write research proposals.

We present MPWide, a light weight communication library which allows efficient message passing over a distributed network. MPWide has been designed to connect application running on distributed (super)computing resources, and to maximize the communication performance on wide area networks for those without administrative privileges. It can be used to provide message-passing between application, move files, and make very fast connections in client-server environments. MPWide has already been applied to enable distributed cosmological simulations across up to four supercomputers on two continents, and to couple two different bloodflow simulations to form a multiscale simulation.