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We analyze the radio wave propagations of VLF/LF transmitter signals along subionospheric paths using two different reception systems localized in the Graz seismo-electromagnetic facility (15.43E,47.06N). Those systems allow the simultaneous detection of more than fifteen transmitter signals emitting in the northern (i.e. France, Germany and United Kingdom) and southern (i.e. Italy and Turkey) parts of Europe. In this work, we investigate the transmitter radio wave propagations associated with two earthquakes (EQs) which occurred, at two occasions, in nearly the same Croatian regions (Geo. Long.=16°E; Geo. Lat.=45°N). The first and second EQs happened, respectively, on March 22 and December 29, 2020, with magnitudes Mw equal to 5.4 and 6.4. The use of two complementary reception systems, i.e. INFREP (Biagi et al., Open Journal of Earthquake Research, 8, 2019) and UltraMSK (Schwingenschuh et al., Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2011), and the proximity to the epicenters lead us to characterize the behavior of the transmitter signal amplitudes particularly above the Croatian seismic regions. We analyze the amplitude variation for a given transmitter frequency starting few weeks before the earthquakes occurrences. We discuss the observed anomalies in the transmitter signals which may be considered as precursors due to the ionospheric disturbances of the transmitter ray paths above the earthquakes preparation zones.

International audience

The energy released by the earthquakes occurred in the seismogenetic area of the southern Kamchatka (Russia) from January 1977 to December 2004, reveals an increase in the peak energy in the period 1992–1999. This increase is related to the occurrence of seven earthquakes with magnitude ranging from 6.9 to 7.7; the first of these earthquakes happened on 2 March 1992 with M=7.1. For many years, hydro-geochemical data have been collected with a mean sampling rate of three days, in the form of the most common ions and gases in the water of deep wells and natural springs of a network operating in the south area of the Kamchatka, where the capital city Petropavlovsk is located. The collected data were analysed and differences in the trend and in the spectral content of some hydro-geochemical parameters at the springs were pointed out before and after the occurrence of the March 1992 earthquake, indicating clear post-seismic effects. Then an evident increase in the Carbon Dioxide and in the Hydrogen content appeared practically at each measurement site during the two-four years preceding the earthquake, so that long term precursors can be claimed. Finally, an anomalous decrease in the Carbon Dioxide content at the springs was revealed two/three months prior the earthquake, as a middle term precursor. The earthquake on March 1992 was the event nearest (90–120 km) to the measurement sites that happened in last thirty years.

Signals of two Japanese transmitters (22.2 kHz and 40 kHz) recorded on the ground VLF/LF station in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and on board the DEMETER French satellite have been analyzed during a seismic activity in Japan in May–June 2008. The period of analysis was from 18 April to 27 June. During this time two rather large earthquakes occurred in the north part of Honshu Island – 7 May (M=6.8) and 13 June (M=6.9). The ground and satellite data were processed by a method based on the difference between the real signal in nighttime and the model one. For ground observations a clear decrease in both signals has been found several days before the first earthquake. For the second earthquake anomalies were detected only in JJI signal. The epicenters of earthquakes were in reliable reception zone of 40 kHz signal on board the DEMETER. Signal enhancement above the seismic active region and significant signal intensity depletion in the magnetically conjugate area has been found for satellite observation before the first earthquake. Anomalies in satellite data coincide in time with those in the ground-based observation.

International audience; The paper presents the results of a joint analysis of ground-based and satellite observations of very low-frequency and low-frequency (VLF/LF) signals during periods of strong seismic activity in the region of Kuril Islands and Japan in 2004–2010. Ground and satellite data was processed using a method based on the difference between the real signal in nighttime and that of a model. The results of the analysis show a good correlation between ground-based and satellite data for several cases of strong (M ⩾ 6.8) earthquakes.

International audience; We report on electric field measurements recorded by DEMETER/ICE experiment above very low frequency (VLF) transmitter stations. The sun-synchronous orbits of the DEMETER satellite lead us to cover an invariant latitude range between-65 • and +65 • in a time interval of about 40 minutes. We select three ground-based transmitter stations localised in Australia (NWC, 19.8 kHz), in Germany (DFY, 16.58 kHz) and in Japan (JP, 17.8 kHz). We analyse the complete set of data recorded from August 2004 to December 2010. We distinguish between the VLF signals observed when the satellite was on day-or night-sides of the Earth at about 22 LT and 10 LT, respectively. We characterize the reception condition of the VLF signal taking into consideration the satellite position above the transmitter stations. We find that the signal amplitude is increasing (up to a maximum) and decreasing (down to a minimum) in a time interval of about 12 days. This 'regular' reception of the VLF signal is a signature of quiet ionosphere behaviour above the transmitter stations. We discuss in our contribution about the time intervals where the VLF signals were almost not detected. The origins of the signal attenuation seem to be linked to the ionospheric perturbations due to the solar activity, the earthquake occurrences and the geomagnetic activity.

The analysis of the VLF signals radiated by ground transmitters and received on board of the French DEMETER satellite, reveals a drop of the signals (scattering spot) connected with the occurrence of large earthquakes. The extension of the "scattering spots" zone is large enough (1000–5000 km) and, probably, it increases with the magnitude of the "relative" earthquake. A possible model to explain the phenomenology, based on the acoustic gravity waves and the ionosphere turbulence, is proposed. The method of diagnostics applied to this study has the advantage to be a global one due to the world wide location of the powerful VLF transmitters and of the satellite reception. However, a specific disadvantage exists because the method requires rather a long time period of analysis due to the large longitudinal displacements among the successive satellite orbits. At the moment, at least, one month seems to be necessary.

International audience; We analyse the flux density variation associated to low frequency (LF) broadcasting transmitters observed by the ICE electric field experiment onboard DEMETER micro-satellite, observed from 01st Jan. to 09th Dec. 2010. We select five stations localised around the Mediterranean and the Black seas: Tipaza (252 kHz, 02°28’E, 36°33’N, Algeria), Roumoules (216 kHz, 06°08’E, 43°47’N, Monte Carlo), Polatli (180 kHz, 32°25’E, 39°45’N, Turkey), Nadour (171 kHz, 02°55’W, 35°02’N, Morocco) and Brasov (153 kHz, 25°36’E,45°40’, Romania). The detection of the LF transmitter signals by DEMETER micro-satellite is found to depend on the radiated power, the emitted frequency, and the orbit paths with regard to the location of the stations. This leads us to characterise the reception condition of the LF signals and to define time intervals where the detection probability is high. We show that LF signal are regularly recorded, each 12 days, when the satellite is above the broadcasting station. The signal intensity levels are principally significant during the solar activity. Hence we find that the solar and the geomagnetic activities are slightly correlated to the maxima of LF signal as recorded by DEMETER. Also we note a drop of the intensity level several days before the occurrence of earthquakes in/around the Mediterranean and Black seas.

For many years, ion and gas content data have been collected from the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. In the last ten years, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 have occurred within 250 km of the wells. In a previous study, we investigated the possibility that the hydrogeochemical time series contained precursors. The technique used was to assume that each signal with an amplitude of three times the standard deviation is an irregularity and we then defined anomalies as irregularities occurring simultaneously in the data for more than one parameter at each well. Using this method, we identified 11 anomalies with 8 of them being possible successes and 3 being failures as earthquake precursors. Precursors were obtained for all five earthquakes that we considered. In this paper, we allow for the cross-correlation found between the gas data sets and in some cases, between the ion data sets. No cross-correlation has been found between gas and ion content data. Any correlation undermines the idea that an anomaly might be identified from irregularities appearing simultaneously on different parameters at each site. To refine the technique, we re-examine the hydrogeochemical data and define as anomalies those irregularities occurring simultaneously only in the data of two or more uncorrelated parameters. We then restricted the analysis to the cases of just the gas content data and the ion content data. In the first case, we found 6 successes and 2 failures, and in the second case, we found only 3 successes. In the first case, the precursors appear only for three of the five earthquakes we considered, and in the second case, only for two, but these are the earthquakes nearest to the wells. Interestingly, it shows that when a strict set of rules for defining an anomaly is used, the method produces only successes and when less restrictive rules are used, earthquakes further from the well are implicated, but at the cost of false alarms being introduced.

We investigate the VLF emissions observed by the Instrument Champ Electrique (ICE) experiment onboard the DEMETER micro-satellite. We analyze intensity level variation 10 days before and after the occurrence of l'Aquila earthquake (EQ). We found a clear decrease of the VLF received signal related to ionospheric whistler mode (mainly Chorus emission) and to signal transmitted by the DFY VLF station in Germany, few days (more than one week) before the earthquake. The VLF power spectral density decreases of more than two orders of magnitude until the EQ, and it recovers to normal levels just after the EQ occurrence. The geomagnetic activity is principally weak four days before EQ and increases again one day before l'Aquila seismic event. Our results are discussed in the frame of short- and long-terms earthquakes prediction focusing on the crucial role of the magnetic field of the Earth.

In our earlier papers we have found the effect of VLF transmitter signal depression over epicenters of the large earthquakes from observation on the French DEMETER satellite that can be considered as new method of global diagnostics of seismic influence on the ionosphere. At present paper we investigate a possibility VLF signal-ionospheric turbulence interaction using additional characteristic of VLF signal-spectrum broadening. This characteristic is important for estimation of the interaction type: linear or nonlinear scattering. Our main results are the following: – There are two zones of increased spectrum broadening, which are centered near magnetic latitudes Φ=±10° and Φ=±40°. Basing on the previous case study research and ground ionosonde registrations, probably it is evidence of nonlinear (active) scattering of VLF signal on the ionospheric turbulence. However occurrence rate of spectrum broadening in the middle-latitude area is higher than in the near-equatorial zone (~15–20% in comparison with ~100% in former area) that is probably coincides with the rate of ionospheric turbulence. – From two years statistics of observation in the selected 3 low-latitude regions and 1 middle-latitude region inside reception area of VLF signal from NWC transmitter we find a correlation of spectrum broadening neither with ion-cyclotron noise (f=150–500 Hz), which possibly means poor representation of the turbulence by the noise due to its mixture with natural ELF emission (which correlates with whistler), nor with magnetic storm activity. – We find rather evident correlation of ion-cyclotron frequency noise, VLF signal depression and weak correlation of spectrum broadening with seismicity in the middle-latitude region over Japan. But in the low-latitude regions we do not find such a correlation. Statistical decrease of VLF signal supports our previous case study results. However rather weak spectrum broadening-seismicity statistical correlation means probably that passive scattering prevails upon nonlinear (active) one.

The results of the monitoring of three VLF/LF signals collected in Petropavlovsk station (Kamchatka, Russia) and one VLF signal collected on board of the DEMETER French satellite are presented. Two periods of the seismic activity occurred in the Japan-Kamchatka area during November–December 2004 and July–September 2005 were investigated and the earthquakes with M≥6.0 in the Japan-Kamchatka area, located inside one or more of the third Fresnel zones of the three radio paths were considered. The ground data were analysed using residual signal of phase dP or of amplitude dA, defined as the difference between the signal and the average of few quiet days (±5 days) immediately preceding or following the current day. Also the satellite data were processed by a method based on the difference between the real signal and the reference one, but in order to obtain this last signal it was necessary to construct previously a model of the signal distribution over the selected area. The method consists: (a) in averaging all the data available in the considered region over a period characterized by low level seismicity, regardless of the global disturbances, in particular, of the magnetic activity; (b) in computing a polynomial expression for the surface as a function of the longitude and the latitude. The model well describes the real data in condition of their completeness and in absence of magnetic storms or seismic forcing. In the quoted periods of seismic activity clear anomalies both in the ground and in satellite data were revealed. The influence of the geomagnetic activity cannot to be excluded, but the seismic forcing seems more probable.

In February 2002, a receiver was put into operation at the Department of Physics of Bari University (Southern Italy) to record VLF-LF radio signals. The intensity and the phase of the signals transmitted by GB (f=16 kHz, United Kingdom), FR (f=20.9 kHz, France), GE (f=23.4 kHz, Germany), IC (f=37.5 kHz, Island) and IT (f=54 kHz, Sicily, Italy) has been monitored with a 5 s sampling rate. The intensity raw data averaged over 10 min, from February 2002 to April 2006, have been analysed. Several decreases of the electric field intensity of the radio signals with a duration of some days were revealed, generally occurring in not concomitant periods. The GE signal decreases systematically in winter and summer each year and so, it could be supposed that such decreases are related to the transmitter. On the contrary, all the other decreases pointed out are sporadic and the previous justification does not seem realistic. On the time occurrence of these decreases, the geomagnetic activity, the meteorological conditions in the receiver area and the regional seismic activity were investigated. The main result is that, generally, a pre or post seismic effect seems to give the most convincing justification. The effect seems to appear for earthquakes with magnitude M≥4.3, when the epicentres are within the third Fresnel zone of the radio signals or near enough to some radio path.

International audience; On February 1996, a receiver able to measure the electric field strength of LF radio broadcastings, with a sampling frequency of ten minutes, was put into operation in a site (AS) located in central Italy. One of the broadcasting stations selected is MCO (f=216 kHz), located in southeast France, 518 km far from the receiver. The MCO data collected since February 1996 up to September 2004 were examined and, at first, the night time data and the day time data (in winter and summer) were separated. Then, the wavelet analysis on the night and day time data was applied. The main result of the analysis was the appearance of a very clear anomaly during summer (July?August) 1998, at day time and at night time. The anomaly is a strong exaltation of the signal components with period in the 25?40 days range. Theoretical calculations of electric field strength were made and the only way to justify this anomaly seems to be the occurrence of an increase of the ground wave propagation mode of the radio signal. Such an increase could have been produced by an increase of the ground conductivity and by modifications of some parameter of the troposphere, mainly the refractive index. On 15 August 1998 a seismic sequence started with 17 earthquakes (M=2.2?4.6) on the Reatini mountains, a seismogenic zone located 30 km far from the AS receiver along the path MCO-AS. In this paper, the possibility that the previous radio anomaly can be a precursor of this seismic sequence is proposed.

At the beginning of 2002 an OmniPAL receiver was put into operation at the Department of Physics of Bari University (Southern Italy). The electric field strength of five VLF-LF signals transmitted from United Kingdom (f=16kHz), France (f=20.9kHz), Germany (f=23.4kHz), Iceland (f=37.5kHz) and Italy (f=54kHz) has been monitoring with a 5s sampling frequency. In a first step we reduced the amount of the data taking one datum each 10min (mean of the ±5min raw data) and then we smoothed these data by a running adjacent averaging over 7 days. Analysing the trends we obtained, we revealed at first in the signal from the Italian transmitter two clear intensity decreases in April 2002 and in August-September 2002. At these times we observed earthquakes with M=4.3 and M=5.6 respectively near the transmitter-receiver path and a precursory effect in the previous decreases appeared. Then, we noted that all of the five radio trends in the time interval March 2002-February 2003 are more disturbed than in other periods; in particular an evident simultaneous decrease appears in January-February 2003. We propose that these disturbances are related to general excitation of the margin between the African and European plates. In a second step we examined the terminator time (evening) changes for the Italian transmitter in July-September 2002, and we found significant deviations from the mean value at the end of August, which is supportive for some precursory ionospheric signature of earthquakes.

Starting from 1992 geochemical data are being collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the pH value and of the most common ions and gases in the groundwater in one deep well located in Petropavlovsk, the capital city of Kamchatka (Russia). On 1 January 1996 a strong eruption started from the Karymsky volcano, that is located about 100km far from the well, in the north-northeastern direction. At the same time, a large earthquake (M=6.9) occurred in the Karymsky area. On 5 December 1997 a very large earthquake (M=7.7) occurred offshore, at a distance of 350km from the well and towards the same direction. The analysis of the geochemical data shows clear variations in the raw temporal trends on both cases. For the first event, a clear premonitory phase appeared; for the second one, some pre-seismic variations could be revealed but permanent modifications of the chemistry of the water subsequent to the earthquake are very clear. In both cases the feature of the geochemical variations is consistent with an afflux of new water in the aquifer connected with the well and with an escape of the Carbon dioxide gas from the ground in different directions. A schematic model able to justify such a phenomenology and the connections of the geochemical variations with the previous tectonic activities is proposed.

We analyze the sub-ionospheric transmitter signals observed above L'Aquila by the electric field ICE experiment onboard the DEMETER micro-satellite. We consider the variation of the intensity level of the DFY transmitter station (Germany) during the occurrence of the L'Aquila earthquakes on April, 06th, 2009. We review the major methods based on the investigation of the ICE dynamic spectrum and the role of the time and the frequency profiles. We show that the drop of the German transmitter signal occurs nearly one week before the L'Aquila earthquakes. The origin of the decrease in the VLF transmitter intensity level is probably due to a lithospheric generation mechanism which indirectly disturbs the ionosphere. We discuss the behavior of the VLF sub-ionospheric transmitter signal and the models which might explain the origin of the transmitter signal attenuation above seismic regions.