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1. Detection of argon in the coma of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Author

Sébastien Gasc, Peter Eberhardt, Michael R. Combi, Thierry Sémon, Tobias Owen, Chia-Yu Tzou, Martin Rubin, E. Kopp, Björn Fiethe, Urs Mall, Christelle Briois, Hans Balsiger, A. Korth, J. Hunter Waite, André Bieler, Olivier Mousis, Jean-Jacques Berthelier, Peter Wurz, Stephen A. Fuselier, Henri Rème, Kenneth C. Hansen, Annette Jäckel, Bernard Marty, Akiva Bar-Nun, Peter Bochsler, Ursina Calmonte, Johan De Keyser, Léna Le Roy, Tamas I. Gombosi, Kathrin Altwegg, Myrtha Hässig, Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern], Department of Geosciences [Tel Aviv], Tel Aviv University [Tel Aviv], HELIOS - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering (CLaSP), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers en région Centre (OSUC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National d’Études Spatiales [Paris] (CNES), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences [Ann Arbor] (AOSS), Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique (BIRA-IASB), Institute of Computer and Network Engineering [Braunschweig] (IDA), Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig], Space Science Division [San Antonio], Southwest Research Institute [San Antonio] (SwRI), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung (MPS), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Centre de Recherches Pétrographiques et Géochimiques (CRPG), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Astrophysique de Marseille (LAM), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Hawaii, Institut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie (IRAP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Space and Habitability (CSH), University of Bern, CNES ESA PRODEX, ANR-11-IDEX-0001,Amidex,INITIATIVE D'EXCELLENCE AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITE(2011), European Project: 267255,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2010-AdG_20100224,NOGAT(2011), HEPPI - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales ( LATMOS ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering ( CLaSP ), Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement et de l'Espace ( LPC2E ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université d'Orléans ( UO ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences [Ann Arbor] ( AOSS ), Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique ( BIRA-IASB ), Institute of Computer and Network Engineering [Braunschweig] ( IDA ), Technische Universität Braunschweig [Braunschweig], Southwest Research Institute [San Antonio] ( SwRI ), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] ( CEE ), Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung ( MPS ), Centre de Recherches Pétrographiques et Géochimiques ( CRPG ), Université de Lorraine ( UL ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Laboratoire d'Astrophysique de Marseille ( LAM ), Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales ( CNES ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institut de recherche en astrophysique et planétologie ( IRAP ), Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse 3 ( UPS ) -Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées ( OMP ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Center for Space and Habitability ( CSH ), ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02/11-IDEX-0001,Amidex,Amidex ( 2011 ), European Project : 267255,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2010-AdG_20100224,NOGAT ( 2011 ), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Department of Geophysics [Tel Aviv] (TAU), Tel Aviv University (TAU), Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung = Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, noble gas, Planetesimal, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, Astronomy, Comet, [SDU.ASTR.EP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Earth and Planetary Astrophysics [astro-ph.EP], chemistry.chemical_element, 01 natural sciences, Astrobiology, law.invention, Jupiter, Orbiter, [SDU.STU.PL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Planetology, [SDU.STU.GC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geochemistry, law, Rosetta, 0103 physical sciences, comets, 010303 astronomy & astrophysics, Research Articles, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Physics, Multidisciplinary, Argon, [ SDU.STU.PL ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Planetology, Spectrometer, 520 Astronomy, SciAdv r-articles, Noble gas, 620 Engineering, [ SDU.STU.GC ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geochemistry, [ SDU.ASTR.EP ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Earth and Planetary Astrophysics [astro-ph.EP], chemistry, 13. Climate action, Space science, Terrestrial planet, Research Article
Abstract

ROSINA/DFMS shows that comets of type 67P/CG likely did not significantly contribute to Earth’s volatile budget., Comets have been considered to be representative of icy planetesimals that may have contributed a significant fraction of the volatile inventory of the terrestrial planets. For example, comets must have brought some water to Earth. However, the magnitude of their contribution is still debated. We report the detection of argon and its relation to the water abundance in the Jupiter family comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko by in situ measurement of the Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis (ROSINA) mass spectrometer aboard the Rosetta spacecraft. Despite the very low intensity of the signal, argon is clearly identified by the exact determination of the mass of the isotope 36Ar and by the 36Ar/38Ar ratio. Because of time variability and spatial heterogeneity of the coma, only a range of the relative abundance of argon to water can be given. Nevertheless, this range confirms that comets of the type 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko cannot be the major source of Earth’s major volatiles.

Published
2015
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2. Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming

Author

Yadu Pokhrel, Stephan Thober, Lhoussaine Bouchaou, Zine El Abidine El Morjani, Ahmed Elkouk, Abdelghani Chehbouni, Abdelfattah Sifeddine, Université Ibn Zohr [Agadir], Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Variabilité à long terme du climat de l'océan (VALCO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique [Ben Guerir] (UM6P), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)

Subjects
2. Zero hunger, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global warming, 0207 environmental engineering, North africa, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 15. Life on land, Radiative forcing, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Impact model, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Rainfed agriculture, Mean radiant temperature, 020701 environmental engineering, Water content, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; The intensification of soil moisture drought events is an expected consequence of anthropogenic global warming. However, the implication of 1.5-3 °C global warming on these events remains unknown over North Africa and the Sahel region, where soil moisture plays a crucial role in food security that largely depends on rainfed agriculture. Here, using a multi-model ensemble from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b, we estimate the changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture drought events under increased global mean temperature. A 3 °C global warming results in multi-year (up to 19 years) mega-drought events over North Africa compared to a maximum drought duration of 12 years under the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target. These events are projected to transform from historically severe droughts into exceptional droughts and extend over an area that is 32% larger under 3 °C compared to that under 1.5 °C. Global warming also leads to a high intensification of Sahelian drought extremes, in particular, their duration (from 24 to 82 months between 1.5 and 3 °C) over the western parts and their severity everywhere. Even though the results highlight substantial uncertainties arising from climate forcing and impact models, the projections indicate a tendency toward unprecedented exacerbation of soil moisture droughts that could pose serious threats to food security of North African and Sahelian societies in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation.

Published
2021
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3. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Author

Schewe, J., Gosling, S., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H., Seneviratne I, S., van Vliet, M., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Buechner, M., Carozza, D., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., de Wit, A., Eddy, T., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Mueller, C., Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4637-5337, Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., Warszawski, L., Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Nottingham, UK (UON), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), East China Normal University [Shangaï] (ECNU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Chicago, Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège], Université de Liège, Dalhousie University [Halifax], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences [Oslo], Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences [Oslo], University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes (GIMAP), Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Schewe, Jacob [0000-0001-9455-4159], Gosling, Simon N [0000-0001-5973-6862], Ciais, Philippe [0000-0001-8560-4943], Lotze, Heike K [0000-0001-6258-1304], Seneviratne, Sonia I [0000-0001-9528-2917], van Vliet, Michelle TH [0000-0002-2597-8422], Vautard, Robert [0000-0001-5544-9903], Wada, Yoshihide [0000-0003-4770-2539], Breuer, Lutz [0000-0001-9720-1076], Carozza, David A [0000-0001-7343-9442], Chang, Jinfeng [0000-0003-4463-7778], Coll, Marta [0000-0001-6235-5868], de Wit, Allard [0000-0002-5517-6404], Eddy, Tyler D [0000-0002-2833-9407], Folberth, Christian [0000-0002-6738-5238], Gerten, Dieter [0000-0002-6214-6991], Gudmundsson, Lukas [0000-0003-3539-8621], Hanasaki, Naota [0000-0002-5092-7563], Ito, Akihiko [0000-0001-5265-0791], Khabarov, Nikolay [0000-0001-5372-4668], Kim, Hyungjun [0000-0003-1083-8416], Lawrence, Peter [0000-0002-4843-4903], Müller, Christoph [0000-0002-9491-3550], Müller Schmied, Hannes [0000-0001-5330-9923], Ostberg, Sebastian [0000-0002-2368-7015], Pokhrel, Yadu [0000-0002-1367-216X], Steenbeek, Jeroen [0000-0002-7878-8075], Steinkamp, Jörg [0000-0002-7861-8789], Tang, Qiuhong [0000-0002-0886-6699], Tian, Hanqin [0000-0002-1806-4091], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, European Commission, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)

Subjects
Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, WIMEK, 0602 Ecology, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Science, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Life Science, Water Systems and Global Change, lcsh:Q, PE&RC, lcsh:Science, Article
Abstract

14 pages, 6 figures, supplementary information .-- Data availability. Simulation data from gridded impact models is available through https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/projects/isimip2a/ and citable using the following DOIs: https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.002 (terrestrial ecosystems); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.006 (agriculture); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.010 (hydrology); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.004 (marine ecosystems, regional); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.005 (marine ecosystems, global). The city-level mortality model data and country-level hydropower model data are available from the authors upon request, Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought, The work was supported within the framework of the Leibniz Competition (SAW-2013-PIK-5), the EU FP7 project HELIX (grant no. FP7–603864–2), the FP7 project IMPACT2C (grant agreement#282746) and by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A1)

Published
2019
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4. Natural and human-induced terrestrial water storage change: A global analysis using hydrological models and GRACE

Author

Yoshihide Wada, Yadu Pokhrel, Farshid Felfelani, Laurent Longuevergne, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Géosciences Rennes (GR), Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), and Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Drainage basin, Hydrological models, Magnitude (mathematics), 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Terrestrial water storage, GRACE, medicine, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Water cycle, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, Human impacts, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Radiative forcing, Seasonality, Snow, medicine.disease, 6. Clean water, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Spatial ecology, Environmental science, Satellite
Abstract

International audience; Hydrological models and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have been widely used to study the variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over large regions. However, both GRACE products and model results suffer from inherent uncertainties, calling for the need to make a combined use of GRACE and models to examine the variations in total TWS and their individual components, especially in relation to natural and human-induced changes in the terrestrial water cycle. In this study, we use the results from two state-of-the-art hydrological models and different GRACE spherical harmonic products to examine the variations in TWS and its individual components, and to attribute the changes to natural and human-induced factors over large global river basins. Analysis of the spatial patterns of the long-term trend in TWS from the two models and GRACE suggests that both models capture the GRACE-measured direction of change, but differ from GRACE as well as each other in terms of the magnitude over different regions. A detailed analysis of the seasonal cycle of TWS variations over 30 river basins shows notable differences not only between models and GRACE but also among different GRACE products and between the two models. Further, it is found that while one model performs well in highly-managed river basins, it fails to reproduce the GRACE-observed signal in snow-dominated regions, and vice versa. The isolation of natural and human-induced changes in TWS in some of the managed basins reveals a consistently declining TWS trend during 2002–2010, however; significant differences are again obvious both between GRACE and models and among different GRACE products and models. Results from the decomposition of the TWS signal into the general trend and seasonality indicate that both models do not adequately capture both the trend and seasonality in the managed or snow-dominated basins implying that the TWS variations from a single model cannot be reliably used for all global regions. It is also found that the uncertainties arising from climate forcing datasets can introduce significant additional uncertainties, making direct comparison of model results and GRACE products even more difficult. Our results highlight the need to further improve the representation of human land-water management and snow processes in large-scale models to enable a reliable use of models and GRACE to study the changes in freshwater systems in all global regions.

Published
2017
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5. Evapotranspiration simulations in ISIMIP2a-Evaluation of spatio-temporal characteristics with a comprehensive ensemble of independent datasets

Author

Wim Thiery, Delphine Deryng, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Jinfeng Chang, Guoyong Leng, Yadu Pokhrel, Rene Orth, Simon N. Gosling, Joshua Elliott, Xingcai Liu, Thomas Hickler, Hyungjun Kim, Yusuke Satoh, Nikolay Khabarov, Christian Folberth, Hong Yang, Tian Zhou, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Graham P. Weedon, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Joerg Steinkamp, Yoshihide Wada, Martin Hirschi, Junguo Liu, Lukas Gudmundsson, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Catherine Morfopoulos, Alexandra-Jane Henrot, Christoph Müller, Richard Wartenburger, Tobias Stacke, Erwin Schmid, Kazuya Nishina, Xuhui Wang, Sibyll Schaphoff, Qiuhong Tang, Justin Sheffield, Hannes Müller Schmied, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Chicago, Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques (UMCCB), Université de Liège, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Southern University of Science and Technology [Shenzhen] (SUSTech), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Princeton], Princeton University, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], European Research Council DROUGHT-HEAT project 617518 Office of Science of the US Department of Energy as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program US DOE DE-AC05-76RLO1830 DECC GA01101 National Natural Science Foundation of China 41625001 41571022 Southern University of Science and Technology G01296001 Defra Integrated Climate Program - DECC/Defra GA01101, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), and Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering

Subjects
PARAMETERIZATION, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, REANALYSIS DATA, 02 engineering and technology, Forcing (mathematics), 01 natural sciences, ISIMIP2a, Environmental Science(all), Evapotranspiration, ddc:550, Range (statistics), Cluster Analysis, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, WATER, Water cycle, uncertainty, General Environmental Science, Uncertainty, Variance (accounting), Explained variation, GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, Variable (computer science), [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Physical Sciences, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, PROJECT, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, evapotranspiration, Climate change, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, SOIL-MOISTURE, hydrological extreme events, LAND-SURFACE MODEL, cluster analysis, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, Hydrological extreme events, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, 020801 environmental engineering, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Environmental Sciences, HIGH-RESOLUTION
Abstract

Actual land evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the global hydrological cycle and anessential variable determining the evolution of hydrological extreme events under different climate change scenarios. However, recently available ET products show persistent uncertainties thatare impeding a precise attribution of human-induced climate change. Here, we aim at comparing arange of independent global monthly land ET estimates with historical model simulations from theglobal water, agriculture, and biomes sectors participating in the second phase of the Inter-SectoralImpact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2a). Among the independent estimates, we use theEartH2Observe Tier-1 dataset (E2O), two commonly used reanalyses, a pre-compiled ensembleproduct (LandFlux-EVAL), and an updated collection of recently published datasets thatalgorithmically derive ET from observations or observations-based estimates (diagnostic datasets). Acluster analysis is applied in order to identify spatio-temporal differences among all datasets and tothus identify factors that dominate overall uncertainties. The clustering is controlled by several factorsincluding the model choice, the meteorological forcing used to drive the assessed models, the datacategory (models participating in the different sectors of ISIMIP2a, E2O models, diagnostic estimates,reanalysis-based estimates or composite products), the ET scheme, and the number of soil layers inthe models. By using these factors to explain spatial and spatio-temporal variabilities in ET, we findthat themodel choicemostly dominates (24%–40%of variance explained), except for spatio-temporalpatterns of total ET, where the forcing explains the largest fraction of the variance (29%). The mostdominant clusters of datasets are further compared with individual diagnostic and reanalysis-basedestimates to assess their representation of selected heat waves and droughts in the Great Plains,Central Europe and western Russia. Although most of the ET estimates capture these extreme events,the generally large spread among the entire ensemble indicates substantial uncertainties.

Published
2018
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6. The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models

Author

Zhao, Fang, Veldkamp, Ted, Frieler, Katja, Schewe, Jacob, Ostberg, Sebastian, Willner, Sven, Schauberger, Bernhard, Gosling, Simon, Schmied, Hannes Müller, Portmann, Felix, Leng, Guoyong, Huang, Maoyi, Liu, Xingcai, Tang, Qiuhong, Hanasaki, Naota, Biemans, Hester, Gerten, Dieter, Satoh, Yusuke, Pokhrel, Yadu, Stacke, Tobias, Ciais, Philippe, Chang, Jinfeng, Guimberteau, Matthieu, Ducharne, Agnès, Wada, Yoshihide, Kim, Hyungjun, Yamazaki, Dai, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Water and Food Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Water and Climate Risk, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), The University of Tokyo, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
GRDC, Water and Food, ISIMIP, global hydrological models, river routing, Water en Voedsel, daily runoff, flood, Climate Resilience, Klimaatbestendigheid, peak river discharge, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, SDG 6 - Clean Water and Sanitation, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards, but their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971–2010) within the ISIMIP2a project.The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharge was compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, likely induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For a majority of river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over about 2/3 of the analysed basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme choice in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not represented in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

Published
2017
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7. Incorporation of groundwater pumping in a global Land Surface Model with the representation of human impacts

Author

Pokhrel, Yadu N., KOIRALA, Sujan, Yeh, Pat J. -F, Hanasaki, Naota, Longuevergne, Laurent, Kanae, Shinjiro, Oki, Taikan, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Singapore], National University of Singapore (NUS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Géosciences Rennes (GR), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Tokyo], Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH), Laboratory for Integrated Micro Mechatronics Systems (LIMMS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and The University of Tokyo (UTokyo)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Hydrology, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Water table, Water storage, 0207 environmental engineering, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Aquifer, 02 engineering and technology, Groundwater recharge, 01 natural sciences, 6. Clean water, Hydrology (agriculture), 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Groundwater discharge, 020701 environmental engineering, Groundwater model, Groundwater, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology
Abstract

International audience; Observations indicate that groundwater levels are declining in many regions around the world. Simulating such depletion of groundwater at the global scale still remains a challenge because most global Land Surface Models (LSMs) lack the physical representation of groundwater dynamics in general and well pumping in particular. Here we present an integrated hydrologic model, which explicitly simulates ground-water dynamics and pumping within a global LSM that also accounts for human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operation. The model is used to simulate global water fluxes and storages with a particular focus on groundwater withdrawal and depletion in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) and Central Valley Aquifer (CVA). Simulated global groundwater withdrawal and depletion for the year 2000 are 570 and 330 km 3 yr 21 , respectively; the depletion agrees better with observations than our previous model result without ground-water representation, but may still contain certain uncertainties and is on the higher side of other estimates. Groundwater withdrawals from the HPA and CVA are 22 and 9 km 3 yr 21 , respectively, which are also consistent with the observations of 24 and 13 km 3 yr 21 . The model simulates a significant decline in total terrestrial water storage in both regions as caused mainly by groundwater storage depletion. Ground-water table declined by 14 cm yr 21 in the HPA during 2003–2010; the rate is even higher (71 cm yr 21) in the CVA. These results demonstrate the potential of the developed model to study the dynamic relation-ship between human water use, groundwater storage, and the entire hydrologic cycle.

Published
2015
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8. Special Issue: Computational Plasma Physics of the journal of Computational Physics

Author

Guillard, Herve, Koren, Barry, Ute, Ebert, Gombosi, Tamas I., Rony, Keppens, Dana, K., Plasma, tUrbulence, Modeling, Approximation and Simulation (PUMAS), Inria Sophia Antipolis - Méditerranée (CRISAM), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria), Laboratoire Jean Alexandre Dieudonné (LJAD), Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS), COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Côte d'Azur (UCA), Departement of Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Department of mathematics and computing science [Eindhoven], Eindhoven University of Technology [Eindhoven] (TU/e)-Eindhoven University of Technology [Eindhoven] (TU/e), Eindhoven University of Technology [Eindhoven] (TU/e), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Catholic University of Leuven - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KU Leuven), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Barry Koren and Ute Ebert and Tamas Gombosi and Herve Guillard and Rony Keppens and Dana Knoll, Laboratoire Jean Alexandre Dieudonné (JAD), Université Côte d'Azur (UCA)-Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) (UNS), and COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) (COMUE UCA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[MATH.MATH-MP]Mathematics [math]/Mathematical Physics [math-ph], ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2012

9. An improved Kalman Smoother for atmospheric inversions

Author

David Baker, Anna M. Michalak, Wouter Peters, Pieter P. Tans, L. Bruhwiler, NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), EGU, Publication, and Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groni

Subjects
Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, Atmospheric Science, Discretization, Meteorology, Meteorology and Air Quality, Bayesian probability, co2 sources, carbon-dioxide, lcsh:Chemistry, models, Flux (metallurgy), trace gases, scheme, Statistical physics, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Sequential estimation, WIMEK, sinks, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, cycle, emissions, Observable, Inversion (meteorology), Inverse problem, sensitivity, lcsh:QC1-999, Trace gas, lcsh:QD1-999, transport, Environmental science, lcsh:Physics
Abstract

We explore the use of a fixed-lag Kalman smoother for sequential estimation of atmospheric carbon dioxide fluxes. This technique takes advantage of the fact that most of the information about the spatial distribution of sources and sinks is observable within a 5 few months to half of a year of emission. After this period, the spatial structure of sources is diluted by transport and cannot significantly constrain flux estimates. We therefore describe an estimation technique that steps through the observations sequentially, using only the subset of observations and modeled transport fields that most strongly constrain the fluxes at a particular time step. Estimates of each set of fluxes 10 are sequentially updated multiple times, using measurements taken at different times, and the estimates and their uncertainties are shown to quickly converge. Final flux estimates are incorporated into the background state of CO2 and transported forward in time, and the final flux uncertainties and covariances are taken into account when estimating the covariances of the fluxes still being estimated. The computational demands 15 of this technique are greatly reduced in comparison to the standard Bayesian synthesis technique where all observations are used at once with transport fields spanning the entire period of the observations. It therefore becomes possible to solve larger inverse problems with more observations and for fluxes discretized at finer spatial scales. We also discuss the differences between running the inversion simultaneously with the 20 transport model and running it entirely off-line with pre-calculated transport fields. We find that the latter can be done with minimal error if time series of transport fields of adequate length are pre-calculated.

Published
2005

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