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4. Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan

Author

Martin, MA, Alcaraz Sendra, O, Bastos, A, Bauer, N, Bertram, C, Blenckner, T, Bowen, K, Brando, PM, Rudolph, TB, Buchs, M, Bustamante, M, Chen, D, Cleugh, H, Dasgupta, P, Denton, F, Donges, JF, Donkor, FK, Duan, H, Duarte, CM, Ebi, KL, Edwards, CM, Engel, A, Fisher, E, Fuss, S, Gaertner, J, Gettelman, A, Girardin, CAJ, Golledge, NR, Green, JF, Grose, MR, Hashizume, M, Hebden, S, Hepach, H, Hirota, M, Hsu, H-H, Kojima, S, Lele, S, Lorek, S, Lotze, HK, Matthews, HD, McCauley, D, Mebratu, D, Mengis, N, Nolan, RH, Pihl, E, Rahmstorf, S, Redman, A, Reid, CE, Rockstrom, J, Rogelj, J, Saunois, M, Sayer, L, Schlosser, P, Sioen, GB, Spangenberg, JH, Stammer, D, Sterner, TNS, Stevens, N, Thonicke, K, Tian, H, Winkelmann, R, Woodcock, J, Martin, MA, Alcaraz Sendra, O, Bastos, A, Bauer, N, Bertram, C, Blenckner, T, Bowen, K, Brando, PM, Rudolph, TB, Buchs, M, Bustamante, M, Chen, D, Cleugh, H, Dasgupta, P, Denton, F, Donges, JF, Donkor, FK, Duan, H, Duarte, CM, Ebi, KL, Edwards, CM, Engel, A, Fisher, E, Fuss, S, Gaertner, J, Gettelman, A, Girardin, CAJ, Golledge, NR, Green, JF, Grose, MR, Hashizume, M, Hebden, S, Hepach, H, Hirota, M, Hsu, H-H, Kojima, S, Lele, S, Lorek, S, Lotze, HK, Matthews, HD, McCauley, D, Mebratu, D, Mengis, N, Nolan, RH, Pihl, E, Rahmstorf, S, Redman, A, Reid, CE, Rockstrom, J, Rogelj, J, Saunois, M, Sayer, L, Schlosser, P, Sioen, GB, Spangenberg, JH, Stammer, D, Sterner, TNS, Stevens, N, Thonicke, K, Tian, H, Winkelmann, R, and Woodcock, J

Abstract

Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.

Published
2021

5. Lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals' psychological reactions to amendments denying access to civil marriage

Author

Rostosky, Sharon Scales, Riggle, Ellen D.B., Horne, Sharon G., Denton, F. Nicholas, and Huellemeier, Julia Darnell

Subjects
Same-sex marriage -- Laws, regulations and rules, Gays -- Civil rights, Gays -- Psychological aspects, Government regulation, Health, Psychology and mental health
Abstract

Political campaigns to deny same-sex couples the right to civil marriage have been demonstrated to increase minority stress and psychological distress in lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals (S. S. Rostosky, E. D. B. Riggle, S. G. Horne, & A. D. Miller, 2009). To further explicate the psychological reactions of LGB individuals to marriage amendment campaigns, a content analysis was conducted of open-ended responses from 300 participants in a national online survey that was conducted immediately following the November 2006 election. LGB individuals indicated that they felt indignant about discrimination; distressed by the negative rhetoric surrounding the campaigns; fearful and anxious about protecting their relationships and families; blaming of institutionalized religion, ignorance, conservative politicians, and the ineffective political strategies used by LGBT organizers; hopeless and resigned; and, finally, hopeful, optimistic, and determined to keep fighting for justice and equal rights. These 7 themes are illustrated and discussed in light of their implications for conceptualizing and intervening to address discrimination and its negative psychological effects. DOI: 10.1111/j.1939-0025.2010.01033.x

Published
2010

10. Summary for Policymakers

Author

Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Abdrabo, M. A.-K., Adger, N., Anokhin, Y. A., Anisimov, O. A., Arent, D. J., Barnett, J., Burkett, V.R., Cai, R., Chatterjee, M., Cohen, S.J., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Davidson, D. J., Denton, F., Döll, P., Dow, K., Hijioka, Y., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jones, R. G., Joner, R. N., Kitching, R. L., Kovats, R. S., Larsen, J. N., Lin, E., Lobell, D. B., Losada, I. J., Magrin, G. O., Marengo, J. A., Markandya, A., McCarl, B. A., McLean, R. F., Mearns, L. O., Midgley, G. F., Mimura, N., Morton, J. F., Niang, I., Noble, I. R., Nurse, L. A., O'Brien, K., Oki, T., Olsson, L., Oppenheimer, M., Overpeck, J. T., Pereira, J. J., Poloczanska, E. S., Porter, J. R., Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Prather, M. J., Pulwarty, R.S., Reisinger, A., Revi, A., Romero-Lankao, P., Ruppel, O. C., Satterthwaite, D. E., Schmidt, D. N., Settele, J., Smith, K. R., Stone, D. A., Suarez, A. G., Tschakert, P., Valentini, R., Villamizar, A., Warren, R., Wilbanks, T. J., Wong, P. P., Woodward, A., Yohe, G. W., Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Abdrabo, M. A.-K., Adger, N., Anokhin, Y. A., Anisimov, O. A., Arent, D. J., Barnett, J., Burkett, V.R., Cai, R., Chatterjee, M., Cohen, S.J., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Davidson, D. J., Denton, F., Döll, P., Dow, K., Hijioka, Y., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jones, R. G., Joner, R. N., Kitching, R. L., Kovats, R. S., Larsen, J. N., Lin, E., Lobell, D. B., Losada, I. J., Magrin, G. O., Marengo, J. A., Markandya, A., McCarl, B. A., McLean, R. F., Mearns, L. O., Midgley, G. F., Mimura, N., Morton, J. F., Niang, I., Noble, I. R., Nurse, L. A., O'Brien, K., Oki, T., Olsson, L., Oppenheimer, M., Overpeck, J. T., Pereira, J. J., Poloczanska, E. S., Porter, J. R., Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Prather, M. J., Pulwarty, R.S., Reisinger, A., Revi, A., Romero-Lankao, P., Ruppel, O. C., Satterthwaite, D. E., Schmidt, D. N., Settele, J., Smith, K. R., Stone, D. A., Suarez, A. G., Tschakert, P., Valentini, R., Villamizar, A., Warren, R., Wilbanks, T. J., Wong, P. P., Woodward, A., and Yohe, G. W.

Published
2014

11. IPCC 2014 : Summary for policymakers

Author

Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Abdrabo, M.A.K., Adger, W.N., Anokhin, Y.A., Anisimov, O.A., Arent, D.J., Barnett, J., Burkett, V.R., Cai, R., Cohen, S.J., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Davidson, D.J., Denton, F., Döll, P., Dow, K., Hijioka, Y., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jones, R.G., Jones, R.N., Kitching, R.L., Kovats, R.S., Lankao, P.R., Larsen, J.N., Lin, J.N., Lin, E., Lobell, D.B., Losada, I.J., Magrin, G.O., Marengo, J.A., Markandya, A., McCarl, B.A., McLean, R.F., Mearns, L.O., Midgley, G.F., Mimura, N., Morton, J.F., Niang, I., Noble, I.R., Nurse, L.A., O’Brien, K.L., Oki, T., Olsson, L., Oppenheimer, M., Overpeck, J.T., Pereira, J.J., Poloczanska, E.S., Porter, J.R., Pörtner, H.-O., Prather, M.J., Pulwarty, R.S., Reisinger, A.R., Revi, A., Ruppel, O.C., Satterthwaite, D.E., Schmidt, D.N., Settele, Josef, Smith, K.R., Stone, D.A., Suarez, A.G., Tschakert, P., Valentini, R., Villamizar, A., Warren, R., Wilbanks, T.J., Wong, P.P., Woodward, A., Yohe, G.W., Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Abdrabo, M.A.K., Adger, W.N., Anokhin, Y.A., Anisimov, O.A., Arent, D.J., Barnett, J., Burkett, V.R., Cai, R., Cohen, S.J., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Davidson, D.J., Denton, F., Döll, P., Dow, K., Hijioka, Y., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jones, R.G., Jones, R.N., Kitching, R.L., Kovats, R.S., Lankao, P.R., Larsen, J.N., Lin, J.N., Lin, E., Lobell, D.B., Losada, I.J., Magrin, G.O., Marengo, J.A., Markandya, A., McCarl, B.A., McLean, R.F., Mearns, L.O., Midgley, G.F., Mimura, N., Morton, J.F., Niang, I., Noble, I.R., Nurse, L.A., O’Brien, K.L., Oki, T., Olsson, L., Oppenheimer, M., Overpeck, J.T., Pereira, J.J., Poloczanska, E.S., Porter, J.R., Pörtner, H.-O., Prather, M.J., Pulwarty, R.S., Reisinger, A.R., Revi, A., Ruppel, O.C., Satterthwaite, D.E., Schmidt, D.N., Settele, Josef, Smith, K.R., Stone, D.A., Suarez, A.G., Tschakert, P., Valentini, R., Villamizar, A., Warren, R., Wilbanks, T.J., Wong, P.P., Woodward, A., and Yohe, G.W.

Published
2014

12. Resampling a Time-Series Process: A Method of Estimating the Probabilities Associated with Alternative Plans for Protecting Pensions against Inflation

Author

Denton, F T and Spencer, B G

Abstract

Any pension protection formula that falls short of complete compensation for inflation has associated with it a time-series of probability distributions of future purchasing power losses. A method of estimating those distributions is proposed and applied. The method is based on the idea of representing inflation as a multivariate time-series process and using a model fitted to historical data to generate a large artificial sample of "realized" inflation sequences by means of a bootstrapping procedure. The purchasing power losses under a given protection plan can then be simulated for each inflation sequence and the sample distributions calculated. Copyright 1991 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Published
1991

16. Is the gender dimension of the climate change debate forgotten?

Author

Parikh, J., Denton, F., and Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management (SANREM) Knowledgebase

Subjects
ComputingMilieux_GENERAL, Disasters, ComputingMilieux_THECOMPUTINGPROFESSION, Local knowledge, Gender, Climate change, Women, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Environmental degradation
Abstract

This paper presents three executive summaries of the presented talks at the Eight Conference of Parties in New Delhi. It also presents the full theme paper entitled "Gender and climate change at COP8: A forgotten element". The main themes discussed on this conference were: the links between disasters and impact on gender, increasing women's burden, the need to increase women on decision-making processes, community-specific knowledge, and mainstreaming gender within climate change debate.

Published
2001

18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation

Author

Klein, Richard J.T., Huq, S., Denton, F., Downing, T.E., Richels, R.G., Robinson, J.B., Toth, F.L., Klein, Richard J.T., Huq, S., Denton, F., Downing, T.E., Richels, R.G., Robinson, J.B., and Toth, F.L.

Abstract

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Published
2007

20. Is the gender dimension of the climate change debate forgotten?

Author

Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management (SANREM) Knowledgebase, Parikh, J., Denton, F., Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resource Management (SANREM) Knowledgebase, Parikh, J., and Denton, F.

Abstract

This paper presents three executive summaries of the presented talks at the Eight Conference of Parties in New Delhi. It also presents the full theme paper entitled "Gender and climate change at COP8: A forgotten element". The main themes discussed on this conference were: the links between disasters and impact on gender, increasing women's burden, the need to increase women on decision-making processes, community-specific knowledge, and mainstreaming gender within climate change debate.

Published
2001

24. An Integrated Macroeconometric and Input-Output Model of Nigeria

Author

Oshikoya, Temitope Waheed, Spencer, B. G., Denton, F. T., Mestelman, S., Economics / Economic Policy, Oshikoya, Temitope Waheed, Spencer, B. G., Denton, F. T., Mestelman, S., and Economics / Economic Policy

Abstract

An integrated macroeconometric and input-output model of Nigeria is formulated and tested in this thesis. The linkage between final demand and value added by sector is achieved through a 1973 input-output table of Nigeria. The input-output table is combined with national accounts, budgeting, monetary and balance of payments accounts using annual observations over the period 1960-1983. The residuals in value added equations based on fixed input-output coefficients are modeled with the explicit inclusion of capital stock to capture supply constraints in a developing economy. The complete model is made up of 5 input-output equations, 29 stochastic equations and 38 identities and definitions. The predictive ability of the model is evaluated based on dynamic historical simulation results. According to the tests the model performs reasonably well for most variables. It is intended that the integrated model should help us to understand the structure and important features of the Nigerian economy and be of assistance in the analysis of macroeconomic and sectoral policy initiatives, forecasting and development planning. The integration also facilitates a number of analytical possibilities since the macro-model of final demand is complemented by the inter-sector supply flows and the input-output model by the stochastic macroeconometric relationships. The model is used to evaluate growth prospects for the Nigerian economy up to 2000 and the sensitivity of the growth paths to changes in the world price of oil. These simulation experiments have policy implications for the government. Oil price may increase in the future but such increase will be temporary. In the medium-term it will be prudent for the federal government to establish a stabilization fund that would reduce the impact of the cyclical patterns of foreign exchange earnings from oil exports. Given the uncertainties in the world oil market and Nigeria's vulnerability to what happens, it is essential to promote the n, Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Published
1989

25. A CRISIS OF AMBIGUITY: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINES

Author

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, Averch, H. A., Denton, F. H., Koehler, J. E., RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA, Averch, H. A., Denton, F. H., and Koehler, J. E.

Abstract

Analysis indicates that among the less-developed countries, the Philippines is not a nation in a general massive social crisis. Classical metaphors about the polity and economy of less-developed countries are misleading when applied to the Philippine experience. The country has a stable democracy, has a modernizing economy growing at a real rate of 6 percent, and does not appear particularly susceptible to revolution from either the right or the left. None of this means, however, that the country is performing spectacularly or that it has no problems. However, appropriate, specific policy responses will depend on a much closer articulation of information systems with decisionmaking. (Author)

Published
1970

26. SOME REGULARITIES IN INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT, 1820-1949

Author

RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, Denton,F. H., RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF, and Denton,F. H.

Abstract

The paper reports on an exploratory statistical analysis into what is essentially the domain of political science theory. The goal in this research was to detect and summarize regularities in the perceived 'causes' of large scale conflict between social groups (war) from 1820 to 1949. The approach was largely inductive in nature with only a loosely formed theory guiding the selection and analysis of the historical record on conflict during this time. In contrast to the historian who tends to look for the unique and uncommon, this research effort was guided by a desire to detect the common, the recurring aspects of large scale social violence.

Published
1965

27. Findings of Sensing Interstitial Glucose to Nudge Active Lifestyles (SIGNAL): A randomised trial examining user engagement with glucose and physical activity self-monitoring technologies in individuals at moderate-to-high risk of developing type 2 diabetes

Author

Whelan, M, Orme, MW, Kingsnorth, AP, Denton, F, Sherar, LB, and Esliger, DW

Abstract

Background: Self-monitoring of behaviour (namely diet and physical activity) and physiology (namely glucose) have been shown to be effective in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and prediabetes prevention. By combining self-monitoring technologies, the acute physiological consequences of behaviours could be shown; prompting greater consideration to physical activity levels today which impact risk of developing diabetes years or decades later. However, until recently, commercially available technologies have not been able to show individuals the benefits of being physically active on their health. Objectives: To examine usage of behavioural and physiological self-monitoring technologies in individuals at moderate-to-high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. The feasibility and acceptability of the intervention was also assessed. Methods: 45 adults aged ≥40 years and at moderate-to-high risk of type 2 diabetes were recruited to take part in a three-arm feasibility trial. Each participant was provided with a behavioural (Fitbit Charge 2) and physiological (Freestyle Libre flash glucose monitor) monitor for six weeks; masked according to group allocation. Participants were allocated to either glucose feedback (4 weeks) followed by glucose and physical activity (biobehavioural) feedback (2 weeks) (Group 1), physical activity feedback (4 weeks) followed by biobehavioural feedback (2 weeks) (Group 2) or biobehavioural feedback (6 weeks) (Group 3). Participant usage (time spent on the applications, number of glucose scans, number of syncs and changes to physical activity goals) was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were the feasibility (including recruitment, eligibility and number of sensor displacements) and acceptability (including monitor wear time and missing data) of the intervention. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted at the 6-week follow up appointment to explore their experience of using the technology and study participation. Results: Usage: Time spent on the Fitbit and Freestyle Libre applications declined over the six weeks for all groups. Of the Freestyle Libre sensor scans conducted by participants, 17% recorded rising or falling trends in glucose, and 13 of 45 participants (23.9%) changed ≥1 of the physical activity goals. Feasibility: 22 of 45 participants (48.9%) completed the study using the minimum number of Freestyle Libre sensors and a total of 41 sensors were declared faulty or displaced during the study. Acceptability: Participants wore the Fitbit for 40.1±3.2 days and 9 of 45 (20%) and 24 of 45 participants (53.3%) received a prompt by email to charge or sync the Fitbit, respectively. Interviews unearthed participant perceptions on the study design, by suggesting refinements to the eligibility criteria as well as highlighting important issues about the usability, wearability, reliability, durability, privacy, features and cost of the technologies. Conclusions: Individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes engaged with wearable digital health technologies providing behavioural and physiological feedback. Modifications are required to the study and to commercially available technologies to maximise the chances of sustained usage and behaviour change. The study and intervention were feasible to conduct and acceptable to most participants.

29. Consultant Contract

Author

Gaymer, A., primary, Arnott, N., additional, Birch, J. J., additional, Denton, F. P., additional, Dinnis, G. A., additional, Fossion, E. M. J. A., additional, Graham, V., additional, Harvey, J. E., additional, Kasby, A. B., additional, King, R., additional, Marley, J. E., additional, Olbourne, N. A., additional, Singh, I., additional, and Turrall, P. A., additional

Published
1974
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31. Reviews

Author

Johnstone, G. W., primary, Denton, F. R. B., additional, Robertson, D. G., additional, Cullen, J. M., additional, Johnstone, G. W., additional, Marchant, S., additional, Milledge, D. R., additional, Serventy, D. L., additional, and Balmford, Rosemary, additional

Published
1978
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