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Objective: To determine the value of serum screening for Down's syndrome at 8-14 weeks of pregnancy using seven potential serum markers (alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, total human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), free alpha-hCG, free beta-hCG, pregnancy associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), and dimeric inhibin A)., Design: Stored blood samples collected from women at about 10 weeks of pregnancy, prior to having chorionic villus sampling procedure on account of advanced maternal age, were retrieved from pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome and from matched unaffected pregnancies., Setting: Twenty-one obstetric centres in nine countries., Subjects: Seventy-seven pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome each matched with five controls (except in two cases that were matched with four controls) for maternal age (same five year age groups), duration of storage of the serum sample (same calendar year), and gestational age (usually same week of pregnancy)., Results: The levels of two potential markers differed between affected and unaffected pregnancies sufficiently to be of value in screening--free beta-hCG and PAPP-A. The median free beta-hCG level in affected pregnancies was 1.79 times the median level for unaffected pregnancies, and the median PAPP-A level was 0.43 times the normal median. These two markers were combined with maternal age to estimate a woman's risk of having a fetus with Down's syndrome. A screening programme that used a risk cutoff level of 1:300 would detect 63% of affected pregnancies and also classify 5.5% of unaffected pregnancies as screen positive. None of the other five markers added more than 2% detection for the same false-positive rate., Conclusion: The performance of screening using maternal age and serum-free beta-hCG and PAPP-A at 10 weeks of pregnancy was better than the double test (alpha-fetoprotein and hCG with maternal age) and similar to the triple test (alpha-fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol and hCG with maternal age) at 15-22 weeks.

The value of measuring inhibin-A (a beta A dimer) with human chorionic gonadotrophin (total or the sub-units free a-hCG and free beta-hCG separately), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and unconjugated oestriol (uE3) was examined to determine the effect on the performance of serum screening for Down's syndrome between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy. The study was based on stored serum samples from 77 Down's syndrome singleton pregnancies and 385 unaffected singleton pregnancies, matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage of the sample, supplemented by data from 970 white women with unaffected pregnancies. Inhibin-A was elevated in the serum of women with Down's syndrome pregnancies with a median of 1.79 multiples of the median (MOM). Using the four serum markers AFP, uE3, total hCG, and inhibin-A, in addition to maternal age, 70 per cent of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a 5 per cent false-positive rate compared with 59 per cent with the conventional triple test (AFP, uE3, and total hCG with maternal age). If the estimate of gestational age were based on an ultrasound scan examination, the detection rate would be 77 per cent [95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 69-85 per cent] using the four serum markers including inhibin-A, compared with 67 per cent with the triple test or 79 per cent (95 per cent CI 71-87 per cent) if marker values were adjusted for maternal weight. If the detection rate were kept at 70 per cent and the gestational age were estimated by an ultrasound scan examination, the four-marker test would reduce the false-positive rate from 6-1 per cent using the triple test to 2-9 per cent. The results were virtually the same if free beta-hCG was used instead of total hCG. The inhibin-A-based four-marker test is the most effective method of prenatal screening for Down's syndrome suitable for routine use. If the extra cost required to carry out the inhibin-A test were less than about [symbol: see text]3 per woman screened, the four-marker test including inhibin-A would be financially cost-effective.

Objectives: The aim was to examine the cause specific mortality of men exposed to hydrazine., Methods: Hydrazine was produced at a factory in the east midlands between 1945 and 1971. The cohort of all 427 men who were employed there for at least six months with varying degrees of occupational exposure to hydrazine were followed up until the end of January 1992., Results: By the end of July 1982 49 deaths had occurred and the observed mortality was found to be close to that expected at each level of exposure. By the end of January 1992 a further 37 deaths had occurred. Again the observed mortality was close to that expected for all causes and also for lung cancer, cancers of the digestive system, other cancers, and all other causes, irrespective of the level of exposure., Conclusions: The results weigh against there having been any material hazard of occupational exposure to hydrazine. The small number of men studied means, however, that a relative risk as high as 3.5 for lung cancer cannot confidently be excluded.

A study was performed to investigate the concentrations of the alpha and beta free sub-units of human chorionic gonadotrophin (free alpha-hCG and free beta-hCG) in maternal serum between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy in 126 pregnancies among 92 women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM). Each IDDM pregnancy was matched with two control singleton pregnancies for gestational age (same completed week) and duration of sample storage (same calendar quarter). The median free alpha-hCG level in the IDDM pregnancies was 0.86 multiples of the median (MOM) for pregnancies without IDDM at the same gestational age (P < 0.002) (95 per cent confidence interval 0.80-0.94). The corresponding free beta-hCG level was 0.96 MOM (95 per cent confidence interval 0.85-1.09). These results enable free alpha-hCG values to be adjusted so that antenatal screening for Down's syndrome can be performed using this marker in IDDM pregnancies as well as in non-diabetic pregnancies.

Maternal serum free alpha-human chorionic gonadotrophin (free alpha-hCG) levels were determined in twin and singleton pregnancies at 15-22 weeks of gestation using a set of stored serum samples relating to 200 twin pregnancies and 600 singleton control pregnancies matched for gestational age and duration of storage. Free alpha-hCG values are, on average, 1.66 times greater in twin pregnancies than in singleton pregnancies (95 per cent confidence interval 1.56-1.76). If maternal serum free alpha-hCG is used in screening for Down's syndrome, values in twin pregnancies can be adjusted using this result so that screening can be performed in twin pregnancies as well as in singleton pregnancies.

The value of measuring the separate sub-units of human chorionic gonadotrophin (free alpha-hCG and free beta-hCG) instead of total hCG together with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and unconjugated oestriol (uE3) was examined to determine the effect on the performance of serum screening for Down's syndrome between 15 and 22 weeks of pregnancy. The study was based on stored serum samples relating to 75 singleton pregnancies with fetal Down's syndrome and 367 unaffected singleton pregnancies, matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage of the serum sample, supplemented by data from 970 white women with unaffected pregnancies. Using the four serum markers AFP, uE3, free beta-hCG, and free alpha-hCG, in addition to maternal age, 65 per cent of Down's syndrome pregnancies were detected for a 5 per cent false-positive rate compared with 59 per cent with the conventional triple test (AFP, uE3, total hCG with maternal age). If gestation was based on an ultrasound scan examination, the detection rate was 72 per cent using the four serum markers compared with 67 per cent with the triple test. As an alternative illustration, if the detection rate was kept at 60 per cent and gestation was estimated by an ultrasound scan examination the four-marker test reduced the false-positive rate by one-third from 3 per cent using the triple test to 2 per cent with the four-marker test. Screening performance was hardly affected by adjusting marker levels for maternal weight.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Free beta-human chorionic gonadotrophin values are, on average, 1.90 times greater in twin pregnancies than in singleton pregnancies [95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 1.69-2.13]. This information can be used in screening for Down's syndrome, so that twin pregnancies can be interpreted in addition to singleton pregnancies.

Objectives: To assess the implementation of antenatal screening for Down's syndrome in practice, using individual risk estimates based on maternal age and the three serum markers: alpha fetoprotein, unconjugated oestriol, and human chorionic gonadotrophin., Design: Demonstration project of Down's syndrome screening; women with a risk estimate at term of 1 in 250 or greater were classified as "screen positive" and offered diagnostic amniocentesis., Setting: Hospital and community antenatal clinics in four health districts in London., Subjects: 12,603 women of all ages with singleton pregnancies seen between February 1989 and the end of May 1991, with follow up of the outcome of pregnancy completed to the end of 1991., Main Outcome Measures: Uptake of screening, detection rate for Down's syndrome, false positive rate, odds of being affected given a positive result, and uptake of amniocentesis in women with positive screening results, together with the costs of the screening programme., Results: The uptake of screening was 74%. The detection rate was 48% (12/25), and the false positive rate was 4.1%, consistent with results expected from previous work based on observational studies. There was a loss of detection due to the selective use of ultrasound scans among women with positive screening results. One affected pregnancy occurred among 205 reclassified as negative; this illustrated the danger of false negatives occurring in this group and lends weight to the view that if an ultrasound estimate of gestational age is used it should be carried out routinely on all women rather than selectively among those with positive results. The estimated cost of avoiding the birth of a baby with Down's syndrome was about 38,000 pounds, substantially less than the lifetime costs of care., Conclusion: Antenatal maternal serum screening for Down's syndrome is effective in practice and can be readily integrated into routine antenatal care. It is cost effective and performs better than selection for amniocentesis on the basis of maternal age alone.

Objective: To determine how frequently hydatidiform mole will be detected in a maternal serum Down's syndrome screening programme., Design: Affected pregnancies were identified using a national register. Unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) were measured in stored serum samples and alphafetoprotein (AFP) levels were available from previous neural tube defect screening at 15-20 weeks gestation., Subjects: Ten pregnancies with a complete mole (i.e., hydropic placenta without a fetus), nine with stored serum samples and one with an AFP level only., Results: The median values were 0.08, 0.13 and 1.83 multiples of the normal median for AFP, uE3 and hCG respectively. Six out of nine (67%) tested for all three markers had a high risk of Down's syndrome given maternal age and the marker levels., Conclusion: Many molar pregnancies that have not presented clinically before 15 weeks will be detected through Down's syndrome screening.

Objective: To investigate the effect of using a routine ultrasound estimate of gestational age and maternal weight adjustment on maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels in antenatal screening for Down's syndrome., Design: Women with a singleton pregnancy without Down's syndrome were screened using the three serum markers and an estimate of gestational age based on 'dates' (time since first day of the last menstrual period) and one based on an ultrasound scan examination was recorded together with maternal weight., Setting: Women attending the Homerton Hospital, Hackney, for their antenatal care between February 1989 and January 1990., Subjects: 2113 women with a singleton pregnancy without Down's syndrome., Results: The use of ultrasound to estimate gestational age (usually based on the biparietal diameter of the fetal skull) led to a significant reduction in the variance of each marker at a given week of pregnancy. The level of each marker was negatively associated with maternal weight, so that adjustment for weight also led to a reduction in variance. These data on gestational age and maternal weight, taken together with published data on pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome, indicate that the routine use of ultrasound to estimate gestational age will increase the detection rate from 58% to 67% while maintaining the false-positive rate at 5%, or reduce the false-positive rate from 5.7% to 3.1% while maintaining the detection rate at 60%. Routine maternal weight adjustment for the serum marker levels was much less useful, increasing the detection rate by about 0.5% for a given false-positive rate, or reducing the false-positive rate about 0.1% for a given detection rate., Conclusion: An ultrasound gestational age estimate available at the time of Down's syndrome screening confers a substantial advantage to screening performance with a further small benefit resulting from maternal weight adjustment, which is worth adopting if it can be done without difficulty or extra cost.

Objective: To investigate maternal serum unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels in pregnant women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and to consider the implications of the results for antenatal screening for Down's syndrome., Design: Descriptive study using stored antenatal serum samples., Setting: Stored serum samples collected from women receiving routine antenatal care in Oxford., Subjects: 126 singleton pregnancies in 92 women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and for each pregnancy, two pregnancies without diabetes matched for gestational age and duration of storage of the serum sample. None of the pregnancies was associated with fetal neural tube defect or Down's syndrome., Main Study Measures: Maternal serum uE3 and hCG levels at 15-22 weeks gestation. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels were also measured for comparison., Results: The median uE3 level in the diabetic pregnancies was 0.92 multiples of the median (MoM) for pregnancies without diabetes at the same gestational age (P less than 0.05); and the hCG level was 0.95 MoM (P = 0.48). The median AFP level was also reduced to 0.77 MoM (P less than 0.001)., Conclusion: The reduction in uE3 and AFP levels in insulin-dependent diabetic pregnancies is sufficiently great to be taken into account in maternal serum screening programmes for Down's syndrome. Dividing the uE3 and AFP levels in such pregnancies by the corresponding median for insulin-dependent diabetic pregnancies will yield a similar false-positive rate in pregnancies with and without insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus.

Objective: To investigate the reason for low maternal serum unconjugated oestriol (uE3) and raised human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels in Down's syndrome pregnancies., Design: Measurement of uE3, total oestriol (tE3), dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), a precursor of oestriol, and hCG in 15-20 week amniotic fluid samples from pregnancies with and without Down's syndrome., Setting: The retrieval and use of stored amniotic fluid samples collected from women who had had an amniocentesis for antenatal diagnosis., Subjects: 45 women with a Down's syndrome pregnancy and 224 unaffected controls of the same gestational age., Results: The median level of amniotic fluid in affected pregnancies was low for uE3, tE3 and DHEAS but high for hCG: 0.50, 0.46, 0.35 and 1.58 multiples of the normal median, respectively., Conclusion: These results suggest that the abnormal maternal serum levels of uE3 and hCG in affected pregnancies are due mainly to abnormal feto-placental synthesis, rather than feto-maternal transfer.

Rates of weight and fat loss in sixteen female and nine male obese patients during calorie restriction (655-789 kcal/day) for up to 120 days were studied by a method for estimating daily changes in body composition. Fat mass is calculated by subtracting daily fluid (calculated from sodium and potassium balances) and protein mass changes from daily weight changes. After the natriuresis of the first 4 days, there was a slower rate of weight loss between days 5 and 28 due largely to a decreasing contribution from fluid and protein losses. No significant change in the rate of weight loss could be shown after the first 28 days. The rate of fat loss did not change significantly from day 5 onwards suggesting no significant change in total energy expenditure during the study period. After 68 days, 93.4% of the weight loss was fat.

The median maternal serum unconjugated oestriol level between 13 and 27 weeks gestation in 77 pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome was lower than the median level in 385 unaffected control pregnancies matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of serum sample storage (P less than 0.001). The median level for the affected pregnancies was 73% of that in the controls. Low unconjugated oestriol levels can be used to detect fetal Down's syndrome; at cut-off levels selected to detect at least 35% of affected pregnancies, unconjugated serum oestriol was a better screening test than either maternal age or serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). The use of all three variables in combination to select women with a 1:250 or greater risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy would yield a 45% detection rate with a false-positive rate of 5.2%. The same detection rate using maternal age alone or using age and serum AFP in combination would yield higher false-positive rates, 15% and 9.8% respectively. The addition of unconjugated oestriol to a Down's syndrome screening programme would therefore be more efficient than the use of age and AFP alone; for a given detection rate fewer women would need an amniocentesis or, for a given percentage of women having an amniocentesis, more pregnancies with Down's syndrome would be detected.

The possibility of improving the effectiveness of antenatal screening for Down's syndrome by measuring human chorionic gonadotrophin concentrations in maternal serum during the second trimester to select women for diagnostic amniocentesis was examined. The median maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin concentration in 77 pregnancies associated with Down's syndrome was twice the median concentration in 385 unaffected pregnancies matched for maternal age, gestational age, and duration of storage of the serum sample. Measuring human chorionic gonadotrophin in maternal serum was an effective screening test, giving a lower false positive rate (3%) at a 30% detection rate than that for maternal age (5%) and the two existing serum screening tests, unconjugated oestriol (7%) and alpha fetoprotein (11%). The most effective screening results were obtained with all four variables combined; at the same 30% detection rate the false positive rate declined to 0.5%. The new screening method would detect over 60% of affected pregnancies, more than double that achievable with the same amniocentesis rate in existing programmes (5%), and could reduce the number of children born with Down's syndrome in the United Kingdom from about 900 a year to about 350 a year.

The results of a survey of the macro-invertebrates of the polluted River Ely, South Wales, are used as a basis for comparing several classification methods which have been used previously in river survey work to determine species groupings. The methods compared are product-moment correlation (clustered by the nearest neighbour technique), Kendall's tau coefficient (clustered by the nearest neighbour and average linkage techniques), and Squared Euclidean-Distance coefficient (clustered by nearest neighbour and Ward's techniques). The species groupings determined by these methods were influenced both by the association coefficient and the technique used to cluster it. Some species were grouped together by all or most of the methods. The ecological validity of these robust groups is examined. A clear recommendation regarding the most appropriate method is frustrated by incomplete knowledge of the ecological requirements of most of the aquatic macro-invertebrates used in the data-set. However, Kendall's tau coefficient clustered by the average linkage technique appeared to produce ecologically meaningful species groups. Product-moment correlation was also reasonably successful and since it is based on absolute abundance data whereas Kendall's tau coefficient is based on relative abundance data, the use of the two together is recommended for determining robust groups.

We studied ten obese patients on prolonged caloric restriction by metabolic balance techniques two weeks before and two weeks after the start of treatment with triiodothyronine (T3) (0.36-1.01 micrograms/kg/d). The rate of weight, nitrogen and fat loss calculated from metabolic balance increased during T3 therapy and these effects were maximal in the second week of treatment. In seven patients studied continuously for four weeks on T3 therapy, the rates of weight and fat loss during the fourth week of treatment were not significantly different from pretreatment values while nitrogen loss was still significantly greater. The increase in nitrogen loss, studied after the period of adaptation to caloric restriction, implies that prolonged treatment with T3 can result in significant losses of lean tissue in addition to that resulting from caloric restriction alone. Mean weight loss increased by 92 g/d during T3 therapy. T3 significantly increased the metabolic rate as measured by two other independent measures: the resting energy expenditure (REE), measured by indirect calorimetry (fourteen patients), and the sleeping heart rate (six patients).