1. Heat-related morbidity and mortality in New England: Evidence for local policy
- Author
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Andrew E. Smith, Julia Gold, Dennis Holt, Kathleen F. Bush, Rebecca A. Lincoln, Melissa Eliot, and Gregory A. Wellenius
- Subjects
Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Hot Temperature ,Names of the days of the week ,Population ,Poison control ,Public Policy ,010501 environmental sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Biochemistry ,Occupational safety and health ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,New England ,Injury prevention ,medicine ,Humans ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Mortality ,education ,Aged ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,education.field_of_study ,business.industry ,Public health ,Humidity ,Emergency department ,Confidence interval ,Female ,Morbidity ,Emergency Service, Hospital ,business ,Demography - Abstract
Background Heat-related morbidity and mortality is a recognized public health concern. However, public health officials need to base policy decisions on local evidence, which is often lacking for smaller communities. Objectives To evaluate the association between maximum daily heat index (HI) and morbidity and mortality in 15 New England communities (combined population: 2.7 million) in order to provide actionable evidence for local officials. Methods We applied overdispersed Poisson nonlinear distributed lag models to evaluate the association between HI and daily (May-September) emergency department (ED) admissions and deaths in each of 15 study sites in New Hampshire, Maine, and Rhode Island, controlling for time trends, day of week, and federal holidays. Site-specific estimates were meta-analyzed to provide regional estimates. Results Associations (sometimes non-linear) were observed between HI and each health outcome. For example, a day with a HI of 95°F vs. 75°F was associated with a cumulative 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.5%, 8.5%) and 5.1% (95% CI: 0.2%, 10.3%) higher rate of all-cause ED visits and deaths, respectively, with some evidence of regional heterogeneity. We estimate that in the study area, days with a HI≥95°F were associated with an annual average of 784 (95% CI: 658, 908) excess ED visits and 22 (95% CI: 3, 39) excess deaths. Conclusions Our results suggest the presence of adverse health impacts associated with HI below the current local guideline criteria of HI≥100°F used to issue heat advisories. We hypothesize that lowering this threshold may lead to substantially reduced heat-related morbidity and mortality in the study area.
- Published
- 2017
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