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Background: Infant survival is an important factor in any community's health. Low birth weight affects babies not only during their infancy but also has long-term consequences for their health as adults. Unfortunately, Sub-Saharan Africa as a region is still dealing with the burden of Low birth weight (LBW), and Tanzania as a part of this region is no exception. So this study aimed to determine the Magnitude of Low Birth Weight and Its Associated Maternal Factors among Women of Reproductive Age who gave birth to live babies., Methods: The study used analytical cross-sectional study design to analyze secondary data from the Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicators Survey 2015-2016. A total of 4,644 women of reproductive age who gave birth to live babies within five years preceding the survey were included in the study. Both bivariate and multivariable logistics regression analyses were used to assess maternal factors associated with low birth weight., Results: The prevalence of LBW was 262(6.2%). After adjusting for confounders, the maternal factors associated with LBW were Age group of a pregnant woman [Less than 20 years (aOR = 1.907 CI = 1.134-3.205) in reference to those aged more than 34years], Number of ANC visits made [Inadequate visits (aOR = 1.612 CI = 1.266-2.05)], parity [para 2-4 (aOR = 0.609 CI = 0.453-0.818), para 5+ (aOR = 0.612 CI = 0.397-0.944)] and area of residence [Unguja (aOR = 1.981 CI = 1.367-2.87)., Conclusion: The prevalence of low birth weight in Tanzania remains high. Women's age, parity, number of Antenatal care visits (ANC), and area of residence were found to be maternal factors associated with LBW. Thus, early prenatal diagnosis of risk factors for low birth weight in high-risk pregnant women may help to reduce the LBW burden in Tanzania and its detrimental effects., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Patient demographics, such as sex and age, are known risk factors for undergoing revision following primary total hip arthroplasty (THA). The military population is unique because of the increased rates of primary and secondary osteoarthritis of the hip. Treatment options are limited for returning patients to their line of duty; however, THA has been shown to be an effective option. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate and contrast the demographic differences of patients undergoing primary THA between the U.S. active duty military population and the general population. The secondary goal was to identify the proportion of primary THA performed at the MTF within the military health system (MHS)., Methods: This was an exempt study determined by the local institutional review board. A retrospective analysis of the MHS Data Repository (MDR) and the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) was performed. The databases were used to identify the patients who underwent THA from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020. The MDR was used to identify demographics such as sex, age, setting of surgery, geographic location, previous military deployments, history of deployment-related injuries, branch of service, and rank. The NSQIP database was queried for sex and age. The median age of the population was compared using the Mann-Whitney U test and gender was compared using the Chi-square test., Results: The MDR was used to evaluate 2,734 patients, whereas the NSQIP database was used to evaluate 223,832 patients. In the military population, patients who underwent THA were 87.7% male with an average age of 45 years, whereas in the general population as measured via the NSQIP database, 45.2% patients were male with an average age of 66.0 years. Comparing the two groups, we demonstrated that the military patients were significantly more likely to be younger (P < .001) and males (P < .001). Only 29.6% of primary THAs were performed within the MTF., Conclusions: Patients in the MHS are undergoing THA at a younger age and are more likely to be male compared to the general population. A significant portion of primary THAs in the MHS are also being performed at civilian institutions. These demographics may result in increased risk of revision; however, long-term studies are warranted to evaluate survivorship in this unique population., (© The Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2024. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The Yanomami population, residing in Brazil's largest indigenous reserve in the Amazon Rainforest, face significant health challenges exacerbated by external threats such as infectious diseases, malnutrition, and mercury contamination from illegal mining. These issues, coupled with inadequate healthcare provision, have led to an alarming increase in mortality rates and potentially threaten the long-term survival of the Yanomami community. This ecological study utilized demographic data from the Special Secretariat of Indigenous Health to explore the demographic evolution and natural increase of the Yanomami Indigenous population in Brazil from 2003 to 2022. Employing population pyramids, crude rates of natural increase, the Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis, and linear regression modeling, the study analyzed vital statistics to forecast demographic trends, with analysis conducted using the R statistical software. Our findings showed a substantial growth of the Yanomami population, yet with a decreasing natural increase rate (τ = -0.33; p  = 0.047), suggesting a shift toward population stagnation or decline within the next century. These results call for urgent, coordinated actions to address the complex demographic trends and health challenges faced by Yanomami Indigenous people, ensuring their demographic sustainability and the preservation of their traditional ways of life amidst ongoing environmental and health crises.

Purpose: To estimate percent excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic by rural-urban residence in the United States and to describe rural-urban disparities by age, sex, and race/ethnicity., Methods: Using US mortality data, we used overdispersed Poisson regression models to estimate monthly expected death counts by rurality of residence, age group, sex, and race/ethnicity, and compared expected death counts with observed deaths. We then summarized excess deaths over 6 6-month time periods., Findings: There were 16.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.8, 17.0) more deaths than expected between March 2020 and February 2023. The percent excess varied by rurality (large central metro: 18.2% [18.1, 18.4], large fringe metro: 15.6% [15.5, 15.8], medium metro: 18.1% [18.0, 18.3], small metro: 15.5% [15.3, 15.7], micropolitan rural: 16.3% [16.1, 16.5], and noncore rural: 15.8% [15.6, 16.1]). The percent excess deaths were 20.2% (20.1, 20.3) for males and 13.6% (13.5, 13.7) for females, and highest for Hispanic persons (49% [49.0, 49.6]), followed by non-Hispanic Black persons (28% [27.5, 27.9]) and non-Hispanic White persons (12% [11.6, 11.8]). The 6-month time periods with the highest percent excess deaths for large central metro areas were March 2020-August 2020 and September 2020-February 2021; for all other areas, these time periods were September 2020-February 2021 and September 2021-February 2022., Conclusion: Percent excess deaths varied by rurality, age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and time period. Monitoring excess deaths by rurality may be useful in assessing the impact of the pandemic over time, as rural-urban patterns appear to differ., (© 2023 National Rural Health Association.)

Introduction: Age and sex are known demographic risk factors for requiring revision surgery following primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Military service members are a unique population with barriers to long-term follow up after surgery. This study aims to compare demographic data between active duty military personnel and a nationwide sample to identify differences that may impact clinical and economic outcomes., Methods: A retrospective observational analysis was performed using the Military Health System Data Repository (MDR) and the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP). Databases were queried for patients undergoing primary TKA between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2020. The MDR was queried for demographic data including age, sex, duty status, facility type, geographic region, history of prior military deployment, history of deployment-related health condition, branch of military service, and military rank. National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was queried for age and sex. Median age between populations was compared with the Mann-Whitney U test, and gender was compared with a chi-squared test., Results: During the study period, 2,094 primary TKA patients were identified from the MDR, and 357,865 TKA patients were identified from the NSQIP database. Military TKA patients were 79.4% male with a median age of 49.0, and NSQIP TKA patients were 38.9% were male, with a median age of 67. Military TKA patients were significantly more likely to be male (P < .001) and younger (P < .001)., Conclusion: Patients undergoing TKA in the military are younger and more likely to be male compared to national trends. Current evidence suggests these factors may place them at a significant revision risk in the future. The application of quality metrics based on nationwide demographics may not be applicable to military members within the Military Health System., (© The Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2023. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Vaccine efficacy (VE) assessed in a randomized controlled clinical trial can be affected by demographic, clinical, and other subject-specific characteristics evaluated as baseline covariates. Understanding the effect of covariates on efficacy is key to decisions by vaccine developers and public health authorities., Methods: This work evaluates the impact of including correlate of protection (CoP) data in logistic regression on its performance in identifying statistically and clinically significant covariates in settings typical for a vaccine phase 3 trial. The proposed approach uses CoP data and covariate data as predictors of clinical outcome (diseased versus non-diseased) and is compared to logistic regression (without CoP data) to relate vaccination status and covariate data to clinical outcome., Results: Clinical trial simulations, in which the true relationship between CoP data and clinical outcome probability is a sigmoid function, show that use of CoP data increases the positive predictive value for detection of a covariate effect. If the true relationship is characterized by a decreasing convex function, use of CoP data does not substantially change positive or negative predictive value. In either scenario, vaccine efficacy is estimated more precisely (i.e., confidence intervals are narrower) in covariate-defined subgroups if CoP data are used, implying that using CoP data increases the ability to determine clinical significance of baseline covariate effects on efficacy., Conclusions: This study proposes and evaluates a novel approach for assessing baseline demographic covariates potentially affecting VE. Results show that the proposed approach can sensitively and specifically identify potentially important covariates and provides a method for evaluating their likely clinical significance in terms of predicted impact on vaccine efficacy. It shows further that inclusion of CoP data can enable more precise VE estimation, thus enhancing study power and/or efficiency and providing even better information to support health policy and development decisions., (© 2024. Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA and its affiliates, Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic rapidly changed the landscape of clinical practice in the United States; telehealth became an essential mode of health care delivery, yet many components of telehealth use remain unknown years after the disease's emergence., Objective: We aim to comprehensively assess telehealth use and its associated factors in the United States., Methods: This cross-sectional study used a nationally representative survey (Health Information National Trends Survey) administered to US adults (≥18 years) from March 2022 through November 2022. To assess telehealth adoption, perceptions of telehealth, satisfaction with telehealth, and the telehealth care purpose, we conducted weighted descriptive analyses. To identify the subpopulations with low adoption of telehealth, we developed a weighted multivariable logistic regression model., Results: Among a total of 6252 survey participants, 39.3% (2517/6252) reported telehealth use in the past 12 months (video: 1110/6252, 17.8%; audio: 876/6252, 11.6%). The most prominent reason for not using telehealth was due to telehealth providers failing to offer this option (2200/3529, 63%). The most common reason for respondents not using offered telehealth services was a preference for in-person care (527/578, 84.4%). Primary motivations to use telehealth were providers' recommendations (1716/2517, 72.7%) and convenience (1516/2517, 65.6%), mainly for acute minor illness (600/2397, 29.7%) and chronic condition management (583/2397, 21.4%), yet care purposes differed by age, race/ethnicity, and income. The satisfaction rate was predominately high, with no technical problems (1829/2517, 80.5%), comparable care quality to that of in-person care (1779/2517, 75%), and no privacy concerns (1958/2517, 83.7%). Younger individuals (odd ratios [ORs] 1.48-2.23; 18-64 years vs ≥75 years), women (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.09-1.61), Hispanic individuals (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.05-1.80; vs non-Hispanic White), those with more education (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.03-2.87; at least a college graduate vs less than high school), unemployed individuals (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.02-1.54), insured individuals (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.25-2.69), or those with poor general health status (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.30-2.13) had higher odds of using telehealth., Conclusions: To our best knowledge, this is among the first studies to examine patient factors around telehealth use, including motivations to use, perceptions of, satisfaction with, and care purpose of telehealth, as well as sociodemographic factors associated with telehealth adoption using a nationally representative survey. The wide array of descriptive findings and identified associations will help providers and health systems understand the factors that drive patients toward or away from telehealth visits as the technology becomes more routinely available across the United States, providing future directions for telehealth use and telehealth research., (©Jiyeong Kim, Zhuo Ran Cai, Michael L Chen, Sonia Onyeka, Justin M Ko, Eleni Linos. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 26.04.2024.)

Every country intends to enhance national production by achieving sustainable development. The purpose of this study is to examine whether there exists any long-run association among environmental deterioration measured by territorial emissions in CO 2 , demographic factors (total population, population density, and urban population) and some other variables, namely, energy use, per capita income, energy intensity, and industrial value added for the 16 countries from the Middle East and North African (MENA) over 1990-2018. We implemented the generalized method of moments (GMM), fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), robust least square estimators, and panel Granger causality techniques for estimation. The empirical estimates reveal that there exists a long run cointegration among the series. Results also exhibit that energy use, per capita income, energy intensity, industrial value added, population density, total population, and urban population have positive effects on CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, in each panel, there is bi-directional causality between population density and CO 2 emissions, total population and CO 2 emissions, and urban population and CO 2 emissions. These findings suggest that the policymakers need not exclusively to focus on the transformation of rural labor from an agricultural-based model to urban regions with powerful, dominant industry and services sectors but also related to the changing of rural establishments into urban spaces is required. These changes in demographics involve changes in the demand for additional transportation services, food, shelter, clothing, and other necessities., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Derived from the notion of algorithmic bias, it is possible that creating user segments such as personas from data results in over- or under-representing certain segments (FAIRNESS), does not properly represent the diversity of the user populations (DIVERSITY), or produces inconsistent results when hyperparameters are changed (CONSISTENCY). Collecting user data on 363M video views from a global news and media organization, we compare personas created from this data using different algorithms. Results indicate that the algorithms fall into two groups: those that generate personas with low diversity-high fairness and those that generate personas with high diversity-low fairness . The algorithms that rank high on diversity tend to rank low on fairness (Spearman's correlation: -0.83). The algorithm that best balances diversity, fairness, and consistency is Spectral Embedding. The results imply that the choice of algorithm is a crucial step in data-driven user segmentation, because the algorithm fundamentally impacts the demographic attributes of the generated personas and thus influences how decision makers view the user population. The results have implications for algorithmic bias in user segmentation and creating user segments that not only consider commercial segmentation criteria but also consider criteria derived from ethical discussions in the computing community.

Objective: The objective of this research is to estimate the probability of pregnancy resumption after discontinuing reversible contraceptives-pills, injectables, implants and IUDs, and to examine the factors associated with the resumption of fertility., Method: The study uses pregnancy calendar data from Indonesia Demographic and Health Surveys (IDHS) of 2007, 2012 and 2017. A hazard model survival method is used for estimating the time needed to resume pregnancy since discontinuing reversible contraceptives. Retrospective data on 4,573; 5,183 and 5,989 episodes of reversible contraceptive discontinuation at the three surveys respectively have been analysed., Results: This study shows that women regained fecundity within one year of discontinuing IUD, pill, injectables or implants. Women using IUD could resume their pregnancy faster than those using implants, pills and injectables. Over the three IDHS 2007, 2012 and 2017 the age-specific percentages of women becoming pregnant after one year of contraceptive discontinuation vary between 72 and 85 for IUD, 75 and 81 for pills, 72 and 76 for implants and 64 and 67 for injectables, with the percentages being higher among younger women. The analysis further shows that length of contraceptive use, parity, prior sexually transmitted infections, knowledge of fertile period, household wealth status and place of residence have no impact on occurrence of pregnancy after contraceptive discontinuation., Conclusion: The analysis disproves a myth that reversible contraceptives make women infertile. Depending on the type of reversible contraceptive used, 65% to 85% of the women were able to conceive after one year of discontinuation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Understanding inequalities in SARS-CoV-2 transmission associated with the social determinants of health could help the development of effective mitigation strategies that are responsive to local transmission dynamics. This study aims to quantify social determinants of geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases across 16 census metropolitan areas (hereafter, cities) in 4 Canadian provinces, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec., Methods: We used surveillance data on confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and census data for social determinants at the level of the dissemination area (DA). We calculated Gini coefficients to determine the overall geographic heterogeneity of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in each city, and calculated Gini covariance coefficients to determine each city's heterogeneity by each social determinant (income, education, housing density and proportions of visible minorities, recent immigrants and essential workers). We visualized heterogeneity using Lorenz (concentration) curves., Results: We observed geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases in cities, as half of the cumulative cases were concentrated in DAs containing 21%-35% of their population, with the greatest geographic heterogeneity in Ontario cities (Gini coefficients 0.32-0.47), followed by British Columbia (0.23-0.36), Manitoba (0.32) and Quebec (0.28-0.37). Cases were disproportionately concentrated in areas with lower income and educational attainment, and in areas with a higher proportion of visible minorities, recent immigrants, high-density housing and essential workers. Although a consistent feature across cities was concentration by the proportion of visible minorities, the magnitude of concentration by social determinant varied across cities., Interpretation: Geographic concentration of SARS-CoV-2 cases was observed in all of the included cities, but the pattern by social determinants varied. Geographically prioritized allocation of resources and services should be tailored to the local drivers of inequalities in transmission in response to the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Alan Katz is president of the Canadian Association for Health Services and Policy Research, and sits on the board of the College of Family Physicians of Canada and the international advisory board of SAIL Databank. He also reports grants from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), outside the submitted work. Marc Brisson reports grants from CIHR and the Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), outside the submitted work. Mathieu Maheu-Giroux reports a research grant from Gilead Sciences Inc., and contractual agreements with the World Health Organization, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS INSPQ and the Institut d’excellence en santé et en services sociaux, outside the submitted work. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2022 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Introduction: Quality antenatal care is a window of opportunity for improving maternal and neonatal outcomes. Numerous studies have shown a positive effect of women empowerment on improved coverage of maternal and reproductive health services, including antenatal care (ANC). However, there is scarce evidence on the association between women's empowerment and improved ANC services both in terms of coverage and quality. Addressing this gap, this paper examines the relationship between multi-dimensional measures of women empowerment on utilization of quality ANC (service coverage and consultation) in Pakistan., Methods: We used Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 (PDHS) data which comprises of 6,602 currently married women aged between 15-49 years who had a live birth in the past five years preceding the survey. Our exposure variables were three-dimensional measures of women empowerment (social independence, decision making, and attitude towards domestic violence), and our outcome variables were quality of antenatal coverage [i.e. a composite binary measure based on skilled ANC (trained professional), timeliness (1st ANC visit during first trimester), sufficiency of ANC visits (4 or more)] and quality of ANC consultation (i.e. receiving at least 7 or more essential antenatal components out of 8). Data were analysed in Stata 16.0 software. Descriptive statistics were used to describe sample characteristics and binary logistic regression was employed to assess the association between empowerment and quality of antenatal care., Results: We found that 41.4% of the women received quality ANC coverage and 30.6% received quality ANC consultations during pregnancy. After controlling for a number of socio-economic and demographic factors, all three measures of women's empowerment independently showed a positive relationship with both outcomes. Women with high autonomy (i.e. strongly opposed the notion of violence) in the domain of attitude to violence are 1.66 (95% CI 1.30-2.10) and 1.45 (95% CI 1.19-1.75) and times more likely to receive antenatal coverage and quality ANC consultations respectively, compared with women who ranked low on attitude to violence. Women who enjoy high social independence had 1.87 (95% CI 1.44-2.43) and 2.78 (95% CI 2.04-3.79) higher odds of quality antenatal coverage and consultations respectively, as compared with their counterparts. Similarly, women who had high autonomy in household decision making 1.98 (95% CI 1.60-2.44) and 1.56 (95% CI 2.17-1.91) were more likely to receive quality antenatal coverage and consultation respectively, as compared to women who possess low autonomy in household decision making., Conclusion: The quality of ANC coverage and consultation with service provider is considerably low in Pakistan. Women's empowerment related to social independence, gendered beliefs about violence, and decision-making have an independent positive association with the utilisation of quality antenatal care. Thus, efforts directed towards empowering women could be an effective strategy to improve utilisation of quality antenatal care in Pakistan., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Understanding the points in a species breeding cycle when they are most vulnerable to environmental fluctuations is key to understanding interannual demography and guiding effective conservation and management. Seabirds represent one of the most threatened groups of birds in the world, and climate change and severe weather is a prominent and increasing threat to this group. We used a multi-state capture-recapture model to examine how the demographic rates of a long-lived trans-oceanic migrant seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus, are influenced by environmental conditions experienced at different stages of the annual breeding cycle and whether these relationships vary with an individual's breeding state in the previous year (i.e., successful breeder, failed breeder and non-breeder). Our results imply that populations of Manx shearwaters are comprised of individuals with different demographic profiles, whereby more successful reproduction is associated with higher rates of survival and breeding propensity. However, we found that all birds experienced the same negative relationship between rates of survival and wind force during the breeding season, indicating a cost of reproduction (or central place constraint for non-breeders) during years with severe weather conditions. We also found that environmental effects differentially influence the breeding propensity of individuals in different breeding states. This suggests individual spatio-temporal variation in habitat use during the annual cycle, such that climate change could alter the frequency that individuals with different demographic profiles breed thereby driving a complex and less predictable population response. More broadly, our study highlights the importance of considering individual-level factors when examining population demography and predicting how species may respond to climate change., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Peripheral lymphadenopathy (LAP) is an important and common abnormal finding of the physical exam in general medical practice. We aimed to reveal the LAP etiology and demographic, clinical and laboratory variables that may be useful in the differential evaluation of LAP. This multicenter, nested case-control study including 1401 patients between 2014 and 2019 was conducted in 19 tertiary teaching and research hospitals from different regions in Turkey. The ratio of infectious, malign and autoimmune/inflammatory diseases was 31.3%, 5% and 0.3%, respectively. In 870 (62%) of patients had nonspecific etiology. Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (n: 235, 16.8%) was the most frequent cause of LAP. The ratio of infective etiology of LAP was significantly lower in patients older than 65 years-old compared to younger patients with the rate of 66.67% and 83.84%, respectively (p 0.016, OR 0.386, 95% Cl 0.186-0.803). The probability of malign etiology was higher both in patients who are older than 45 years-old (p < 0.001, OR 3.23, 95% Cl 1.99-5.26) and older than 65 years-old (p 0.002, OR 3.36, 95% Cl 1.69-6.68). Age, localization and duration of LAP, leukocytosis, anemia, thrombocytopenia, CRP and sedimentation rate were important parameters to differentiate infections. Size of lymph node and splenomegaly in addition to the parameters above were useful parameters for differentiating malign from benign etiology. Despite the improvements in diagnostic tools, reaching a definite differential diagnosis of lymphadenopathy is still challenging. Our results may help clinicians to decide in which cases they need an aggressive workup and set strategies on optimizing the diagnostic approach of adulthood lymphadenopathy., (© 2021. Società Italiana di Medicina Interna (SIMI).)

Public health surveillance systems likely underestimate the true prevalence and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection due to limited access to testing and the high proportion of subclinical infections in community-based settings. This ongoing prospective, observational study aimed to generate accurate estimates of the prevalence and incidence of, and risk factors for, SARS-CoV-2 infection among residents of a central North Carolina county. From this cohort, we collected survey data and nasal swabs every two weeks and venous blood specimens every month. Nasal swabs were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus (evidence of active infection), and serum specimens for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies (evidence of prior infection). As of June 23, 2021, we have enrolled a total of 153 participants from a county with an estimated 76,285 total residents. The anticipated study duration is at least 24 months, pending the evolution of the pandemic. Study data are being shared on a monthly basis with North Carolina state health authorities and future analyses aim to compare study data to state-wide metrics over time. Overall, the use of a probability-based sampling design and a well-characterized cohort will enable collection of critical data that can be used in planning and policy decisions for North Carolina and may be informative for other states with similar demographic characteristics., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

China's low fertility is often presented as a major factor which will hinder its prosperity in the medium to long term. This is based on the assumed negative consequences of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: a simplistic measure of relative changing age structures. Based on this view, policies to increase fertility are being proposed after decades of birth restriction policies. Here, we argue that a purely age structure-based reasoning which disregards labor force participation and education attainment may be highly misleading. While fertility has indeed fallen to low levels, human capital accumulation has been very strong-especially among younger cohorts. Factoring in the effects of labor force participation and educational attainment on productivity, a measure called "productivity-weighted labor force dependency ratio" can more accurately capture the economic implications of demographic change. When using this ratio, a much more optimistic picture of the economic (and social) future of China can be envisaged., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Importance: Associations between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and chronic diseases among middle-aged or older Chinese individuals have not been well documented. In addition, whether demographic and socioeconomic characteristics modify any such associations has been underexplored., Objectives: To examine associations between ACEs and subsequent chronic diseases and to assess whether age, sex, educational level, annual per capita household expenditure level, and childhood economic hardship modify these associations., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cross-sectional study used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a survey of residents aged 45 years or older in 28 provinces across China; specifically, the study used data from the CHARLS life history survey conducted from June 1 to December 31, 2014, and a CHARLS follow-up health survey conducted from July 1 to September 30, 2015. The study population included 11 972 respondents aged 45 years or older who had data on at least 1 of 14 specified chronic diseases and information on all 12 of the ACE indicators included in this study. Data analysis was performed from December 1 to 30, 2020., Exposures: Any of 12 ACEs (physical abuse, emotional neglect, household substance abuse, household mental illness, domestic violence, incarcerated household member, parental separation or divorce, unsafe neighborhood, bullying, parental death, sibling death, and parental disability), measured by indicators on a questionnaire. The number of ACEs per participant was summed and categorized into 1 of 5 cumulative-score groups: 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more., Main Outcomes and Measures: Hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, chronic lung disease, asthma, liver disease, cancer, digestive disease, kidney disease, arthritis, psychiatric disease, and memory-related disease were defined by self-reported physician diagnoses or in combination with health assessment and medication data. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of 2 or more of these 14 chronic diseases. Logistic regression models were used to assess associations of the 12 ACEs with the 14 chronic diseases and with multimorbidity. Modification of the associations by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics was assessed by stratified analyses and tests for interaction., Results: Of the 11 972 individuals included (mean [SD] age, 59.85 [9.56] years; 6181 [51.6%] were females), 80.9% had been exposed to at least 1 ACE and 18.0% reported exposure to 4 or more ACEs. Compared with those without ACE exposure, participants who experienced 4 or more ACEs had increased risks of dyslipidemia, chronic lung disease, asthma, liver disease, digestive disease, kidney disease, arthritis, psychiatric disease, memory-related disease, and multimorbidity. The estimated odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 1.27 (95% CI, 1.02-1.59) for dyslipidemia to 2.59 (95% CI, 2.16-3.11) for digestive disease. A dose-response association was also observed between the number of ACEs and the risk of most of the chronic diseases (excluding hypertension, diabetes, and cancer) (eg, chronic lung disease for ≥4 ACEs vs none: OR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.59-2.55; P < .001 for trend) and of multimorbidity (for individuals among the overall study population with ≥4 ACEs vs none: OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.70-2.41; P < .001 for trend). The demographic or socioeconomic characteristics of age, sex, educational level, annual per capita household expenditure level, or childhood economic hardship were not shown to significantly modify the associations between ACEs and multimorbidity., Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based, cross-sectional study of adults in China, exposure to ACEs was associated with higher risks of chronic diseases regardless of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics during childhood or adulthood. These findings suggest a need to prevent ACEs and a need for a universal life-course public health strategy to reduce potential adverse health outcomes later in life among individuals who experience them.

Mucopolysaccharidosis (MPS) IVA is a rare autosomal recessive disease with a highly variable distribution worldwide. Discrepancies in the incidence of MPS IVA among populations of different ethnicities are mostly attributed to founder effects. Demographic and clinical data from 28 MPS IVA patients, followed at a single center, and ancestry (Y chromosome and mitochondrial markers) of a subsample of 17 patients, most with the p.Ser341Arg (c.1023C>G) mutation were analyzed. Parental consanguinity was observed in 15/20 couples; a rare homozygous N-acetylgalactosamine-6-sulfatase (GALNS) mutation was found in 7/16 families with intra-familial phenotypic heterogeneity. Paternal ancestry was 94.2% (16/17) European, 5.8% (1/17) African, and 0% Amerindian. The European paternal haplogroups R1a, R1b, and R* accounted for 94.2% (16/17) of the patients. The R1b haplogroup, identified in 59% (10/17) of the patients, is frequently found in populations from the Iberian Peninsula. European, Amerindian, and African maternal ancestry was observed in 46.9% (8/17), 35.4% (6/17), and 17.7% (3/17) of the patients, respectively. Study of a cluster of MPS IVA patients from Northeastern Brazil, with high parental consanguinity and phenotypic heterogeneity showed predominantly European parental ancestry. This ancestry finding corroborates historical data on the local settlement, formed predominantly by European men., (© 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: Cocaine is increasingly used on a recreational basis by the general population with potential implications for mental health. The aim of this study was to assess how common cocaine use is, and its mental health associations, in a large sample of university students., Methods: Approximately 10 000 university students were invited to take part in an online survey, which assessed the use of cocaine (ever or past year), alcohol and drug use, mental health issues, and impulsive and compulsive tendencies. Group differences in demographic and clinical characteristics were characterized., Results: A total of 3520 university students (57.7% female) completed the survey. Of these, 110 students (3.1%) reported using cocaine in the preceding year, and a further 163 students (4.6%) reported historical use more than a year ago. Cocaine use was associated with more years as a student, lower grade point averages, more use of other drugs, riskier sexual practices, post-traumatic stress disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, treatment for psychological/emotional problems (including taking prescribed medication), and trait impulsivity. Of these associations, the link with trait impulsivity had the largest effect size., Conclusion: History of cocaine use appears relatively common in university students; and has a number of untoward associations in terms of mental health, use of other substances, and risky sexual practices. The most marked finding (in terms of effect size) was the link between cocaine use and trait impulsivity, supporting the importance of this construct in seeking out candidate vulnerability markers for use of cocaine and other drugs. Future work should use longitudinal designs to further characterize the nature of these associations.

Abstract: In December 2019, with pneumonia-like clinical manifestations, a new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 emerged and quickly escalated into a pandemic. Since the first case detected in early March of last year, 8668 have died with an infection mortality rate of 1.52%, as of March 20, 2021. Bangladesh has been struck by the 2nd wave from mid-march 2021. As data on the second wave are sparse, the present study observed the demographic profile, symptoms, and outcomes of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients during this wave.The study was conducted at Sheikh Russel National Gastroliver Institute on 486 admitted cases during the 2nd wave of COVID-19 in Bangladesh (March 24-April 24, 2021) using a cross-sectional study design and a convenient sampling technique.Out of 486 cases, 306 (62.9%) were male, and 180 were female, with a mean age of 53.47 ± 13.86. The majority of patients (32.5%) were between the ages of 51 and 60. While fever and cough being the predominant symptoms (>70% cases), the most common co-morbidities were hypertension (41.4) and diabetes mellitus (39.4). Intensive care unit utilization rate was 25%, and a half of the patients had 51% to 70% tomographic lung involvement with an overall mortality rate of 19.3%. Older age, chronic renal disease, percentage of lung involvement, and intensive care unit necessity were important mortality determinants.The present study gives an insight into the demographic profiles and outcomes of admitted patients with COVID-19 during the second wave at a covid dedicated hospital in Bangladesh., Competing Interests: The authors have no funding and conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Importance: Representative enrollment in clinical trials is critical to ensure equitable and effective translation of research to practice, yet disparities in clinical trial enrollment persist., Objective: To examine person-level factors associated with invitation to and participation in clinical trials., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed responses from 3689 US adults who participated in the nationally representative Health Information National Trends Survey, collected February through June 2020 via mailed questionnaires., Exposures: Demographic, clinical, and health behavior-related characteristics., Main Outcomes and Measures: History of invitation to and participation in a clinical trial, primary information sources, trust in information sources, and motives for participation in clinical trials were described. Respondent characteristics are presented as absolute numbers and weighted percentages. Associations between respondent demographic, clinical, and health behavior-related characteristics and clinical trial invitation and participation were estimated using survey-weighted logistic regression models., Results: The median (IQR) age of the 3689 respondents was 48 (33-61) years, and most were non-Hispanic White individuals (2063 [59%]; non-Hispanic Black, 452 [10%]; Hispanic, 521 [14%]), had more than a high school degree (2656 [68%]), were employed (1809 [58%]), and had at least 1 medical condition (2535 [61%]). Overall, 439 respondents (9%) had been invited to participate in any clinical trial. Respondents with increased odds of invitation were non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.85; 95% CI, 1.13-3.02), had greater than a high school education compared with less than high school education (eg, ≥college degree: aOR, 4.84; 95% CI, 1.89-12.39), were single compared with married or living as married (aOR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.04-2.73), and had at least 1 medical condition compared to none (eg, 1 medical condition: aOR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.32-3.82). Respondents residing in rural vs urban areas had 77% decreased odds of invitation to a clinical trial (aOR 0.33; 95% CI 0.17-0.65). Of invited respondents, 199 (47%) participated. Compared with non-Hispanic White respondents, non-Hispanic Black respondents had 72% decreased odds of clinical trial participation (aOR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.09-0.87). Respondents most frequently reported "health care providers" as the first and most trusted source of clinical trial information (first source: 2297 [59%]; most trusted source: 2597 [70%]). The most frequently reported motives for clinical trials participation were "wanting to get better" (2294 [66%]) and the standard of care not being covered by insurance (1448 [41%])., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that invitation to and participation in clinical trials may differ by person-level demographic and clinical characteristics. Strategies toward increasing trial invitation and participation rates across diverse patient populations warrant further research to ensure equitable translation of clinical benefits from research to practice.

In this work, we propose a quantitative model for the 2019 Chilean protests. We utilize public data for the consumer price index, the gross domestic product, and the employee and per capita income distributions as inputs for a nonlinear diffusion-reaction equation, the solutions to which provide an in-depth analysis of the population dynamics. Specifically, the per capita income distribution stands out as a solution to the extended Fisher-Kolmogorov equation. According to our results, the concavity of employee income distribution is a decisive input parameter and, in contrast to the distributions typically observed for Chile and other countries in Latin America, should ideally be non-negative. Based on the results of our model, we advocate for the implementation of social policies designed to stimulate social mobility by broadening the distribution of higher salaries., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Along with the major impact on public health, the COVID-19 outbreak has caused unprecedented concerns ranging from sudden loss of employment to mental stress and anxiety. We implemented a survey-based data collection platform to characterize how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the socio-economic, physical and mental health conditions of individuals. We focused on three broad areas, namely, changes in social interaction during home confinement, economic impact and their health status. We identified a substantial increase in virtual interaction among individuals, which might be a way to alleviate the sudden unprecedented mental health burden, exacerbated by general awareness about viral infections or other manifestations associated with them. The majority of participants (85%) lived with one or more companions and unemployment issues did not affect 91% of the total survey takers, which was one of the crucial consequences of the pandemic. Nevertheless, measures such as an increased frequency of technology-aided distant social interaction, focus on physical fitness and leisure activities were adopted as coping mechanisms during this period of home isolation. Collectively, these metrics provide a succinct and informative summary of the socio-economic and health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the individuals. Findings from our study reflect that continuous surveillance of the psychological consequences for outbreaks should become routine as part of preparedness efforts worldwide. Given the limitations of analyzing the large number of variables, we have made the raw data publicly available on the OMF ME/CFS Data Center server to facilitate further analyses (https://igenomed.stanford.edu/dataset/survey-study-on-lifestyle-changes-during-covid-19-pandemic)., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objectives: COVID-19 is the most challenging public health crisis in decades in the United States. It is imperative to enforce social distancing rules before any safe and effective vaccines are widely available. Policies without public support are destined to fail. This study aims to reveal factors that determine the American public support for six mitigation measures (e.g., cancel gatherings, close schools, restrict non-essential travel). Methods: Based on a nationally representative survey, this study uses Structural Equation Modelling to reveal the relationships between various factors and public support for COVID-19 mitigation. Results: 1). Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support mitigation measures; 2).Favorability towards the political leader (Biden or Trump) can slant public support for COVID-19 mitigation measures among different segments of the public.; 3). Indirect experience, rather than direct experience with COVID-19 can motivate people to support mitigation; 4). Concern for COVID-19 is a strong motivator of support for mitigation. Conclusion: Political polarization poses an enormous challenge to societal well-being during a pandemic. Indirect experience renders COVID-19 an imminent threat., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Shao and Hao.)

Ecological science focuses on the structure and function of the natural environment. However, the study of ecological environments primarily focuses on single-element research and lacks a comprehensive perspective. To examine ecological environmental trends on different scales, the present paper selected Yunnan Province as the study area. Chemical oxygen demand, rocky desertification, forest coverage, natural disaster data and spatial analysis methods were used to obtain the ecological environmental characteristics of each county and construct a comprehensive evaluation method of the ecological environment. The present paper revealed that the environmental capacity in Yunnan Province was at a moderate level, the ecological environment fragility was remarkable, the significance of the ecological environment was very high, natural disasters occurred frequently, and spatial differentiation between ecological environments was obvious. The province may be divided into three functional areas: the comprehensive-balanced area, the efficiency-dominated area and the environment-dominated area. Central Yunnan was a key development zone and the main area for the manufacturing and service industries, which were built as a modern industrial system in Yunnan Province. The ecological environment in northwestern Yunnan and southern Yunnan is of high significance, and this region was an ecological environment protection area that was important area for the construction of the modern agricultural system in Yunnan Province. To achieve sustainable development of the ecological environment, the spatial characteristics of the ecological environment must be determined at the county scale., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Numerous studies conducted in the United States found associations between prenatal exposure to particulate matter (PM) and adverse birth outcomes, and some studies identified vulnerable populations, including certain racial/ethnic groups and people with low-socioeconomic status. However, their findings are not always consistent. In this review, we compared the risk of adverse birth outcomes due to PM exposures among subpopulations and investigated whether any particular population is more vulnerable., Methods: We selected U.S. studies examining associations between PM exposure during pregnancy and birth outcomes that included results for effect modification by race/ethnicity and/or maternal education. We summarized the findings for various sizes of PM and birth outcomes. Meta-analysis was conducted to quantify vulnerable race/ethnicity for the association between fine PM (PM 2.5 ) and birthweight., Results: In total, 19 studies were assessed, and PM-related risks of adverse birth outcomes, particularly those related to fetal growth, likely differ across subpopulations. A meta-analysis from five studies showed that a 10 μg/m 3 increase of PM 2.5 during the full-gestation reduced birthweight by 21.9 g (95% confidence interval 11.7, 32.0), 15.7 g (10.1, 21.4), 9.3 g (2.7, 15.8), and 5.8 g (- 9.0, 20.7) for Black, White, Hispanic, and Asian mothers, respectively., Conclusion: Our review indicated that Black mothers and mothers with low educational attainment are more vulnerable subpopulations. More investigation is needed for effect modification by other maternal factors, such as household income. Characterizing and quantifying vulnerable subpopulations are essential for addressing environmental justice since it can help regulatory agencies allocate resources and design policy interventions.

Importance: Significant demographic disparities have been found to exist in the delivery of health care. Demographic factors associated with clinical decision-making in kidney cancer have not been thoroughly studied., Objective: To determine whether demographic factors, including sex and race/ethnicity, are associated with receipt of non-guideline-based treatment for kidney cancer., Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from the National Cancer Database for the years 2010 through 2017. Included patients were individuals aged 30 to 70 years with localized (ie, cT1-2, N0, M0) kidney cancer and no major medical comorbidities (ie, Charlson-Deyo Comorbidity Index score of 0 or 1) treated at Commission on Cancer-accredited health care institutions in the United States. Data were analyzed from November 2020 through March 2021., Exposures: Demographic factors, including sex, race/ethnicity, and insurance status., Main Outcomes and Measures: Receipt of non-guideline-based treatment (undertreatment or overtreatment) for kidney cancer, as defined by accepted clinical guidelines, was determined., Results: Among 158 445 patients treated for localized kidney cancer, 99 563 (62.8%) were men, 120 001 individuals (75.7%) were White, and 91 218 individuals (57.6%) had private insurance. The median (interquartile range) age was 58 (50-64) years. Of the study population, 48 544 individuals (30.6%) received non-guideline-based treatment. Female sex was associated with lower adjusted odds of undertreatment (odds ratio [OR], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.88; P < .001) and higher adjusted odds of overtreatment (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.24-1.30; P < .001) compared with male sex. Compared with White patients, Black and Hispanic patients had higher adjusted odds of undertreatment (Black patients: OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.29-1.55; P < .001; Hispanic patients: OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.06-1.36; P = .004) and overtreatment (Black patients: OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05-1.13; P < .001; Hispanic patients: OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11, P = .01). Individuals who were uninsured, compared with those who had insurance, had statistically significantly higher adjusted odds of undertreatment (OR, 2.63; 95% CI, 2.29-3.01; P < .001) and lower adjusted odds of overtreatment (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67-0.77; P < .001)., Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that there were significant disparities in treatment decision-making for patients with kidney cancer, with increased rates of non-guideline-based treatment for women and Black and Hispanic patients. These findings suggest that further research into the mechanisms underlying these disparities is warranted and that clinical and policy decision-making should take these disparities into account.

Background: Malnutrition among under-five children is a common public health problem and it is one of the main cause for the mortality of under-five children in developing countries, including Ethiopia. Therefore, lack of evidence about geographic heterogeneity and predictors of under-nutrition hinders for evidence-based decision-making process for the prevention and control programs of under-nutrition in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to address this gap., Methods: The data were obtained from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2016. A total of 9,384 under-five children nested in 645 clusters were included with a stratified two-stage cluster sampling. ArcGIS version 10.5 software was used for global, local and ordinary least square analysis and mapping. The spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran's I) statistic was held in order to assess the pattern of wasting, stunting, and underweight whether it was dispersed, clustered, or randomly distributed. In addition, a Bernoulli model was used to analyze the purely spatial cluster detection of under-nutrition indicators through SaTScan version 9.6 software. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) version 4.0 software was used to model spatial relationships in the GWR analysis. Finally, a statistical decision was made at p-value<0.05 with 95%CI for ordinary least square analysis and geographically weighted regression., Main Findings: Childhood under-nutrition showed geographical variations at zonal levels in Ethiopia. Accordingly, Somali region (Afder, Gode, Korahe, Warder Zones), Afar region (Zone 2), Tigray region (Southern Zone), and Amhara region (Waghmira Zones) for wasting, Amhara region (West Gojam, Awi, South Gondar, and Waghmira Zones) for stunting and Amhara region (South Wollo, North Wollo, Awi, South Gondar, and Waghmira zones), Afar region (Zone 2), Tigray region (Eastern Zone, North Western Zone, Central Zone, Southern Zone, and Mekele Special Zones), and Benshangul region (Metekel and Assosa Zones) for underweight were detected as hot spot (high risk) regions. In GWR analysis, had unimproved toilet facility for stunting, wasting and underweight, father had primary education for stunting and wasting, father had secondary education for stunting and underweight, mothers age 35-49 years for wasting and underweight, having female children for stunting, having children eight and above for wasting, and mother had primary education for underweight were significant predictors at (p<0.001)., Conclusions: Our study showed that the spatial distribution of under-nutrition was clustered and high-risk areas were identified in all forms of under-nutrition indicators. Predictors of under-nutrition were identified in all forms of under-nutrition indicators. Thus, geographic-based nutritional interventions mainly mobilizing additional resources could be held to reduce the burden of childhood under-nutrition in hot spot areas. In addition, improving sanitation and hygiene practice, improving the life style of the community, and promotion of parent education in the identified hot spot zones for under-nutrition should be more emphasized., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Bronchial thermoplasty is an endoscopic treatment for uncontrolled asthma. Previous randomised clinical trials have shown that bronchial thermoplasty reduces severe exacerbations in people with asthma. However, the long-term efficacy and safety of bronchial thermoplasty beyond 5 years is unknown. The BT10+ study aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety of bronchial thermoplasty after 10 or more years of follow-up., Methods: BT10+ was an international, multicentre, follow-up study of participants who were previously enrolled in the AIR, RISA, and AIR2 trials and who had 10 or more years of follow-up since bronchial thermoplasty treatment. Data on patient demographics, quality of life, lung function, CT scans (AIR2 participants only), severe exacerbations, and health-care use during the previous year were collected at the BT10+ 10-year outcomes study visit. The primary effectiveness endpoint was durability of the thermoplasty treatment effect, determined by comparing the proportion of participants who had severe exacerbations during the first and fifth years after bronchial thermoplasty treatment with the proportion of participants who had severe exacerbations during the 12-month period before the BT10+ visit. The primary safety endpoint was the absence of clinically significant post-treatment respiratory image changes after bronchial thermoplasty, defined as bronchiectasis or bronchial stenosis as confirmed by pulmonary volumetric high-resolution CT scan at the BT10+ visit (AIR2 participants only). All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03243292. The last patient was enrolled on Dec 11, 2018. The last patient completed follow-up on Jan 10, 2019., Findings: The BT10+ study enrolled 192 (45%) of the 429 participants who were enrolled in the AIR, RISA, and AIR2 trials. The BT10+ participants comprised 136 who received bronchial thermoplasty (52% of the 260 participants who received bronchial thermoplasty in the original trials), and 56 sham or control participants (33% of 169 from the original trials). 18 (32%) sham or control participants received bronchial thermoplasty after the previous trials concluded. The participants included in BT10+ were followed for 10·8-15·6 years (median 12·1 years) post-treatment. Baseline characteristics were similar between participants enrolled in BT10+ and those not enrolled. Participants treated with bronchial thermoplasty had similar proportions of severe exacerbations at the BT10+ visit (34 [25%] of 136 participants) compared with 1 year (33 [24%] of 135 participants; difference 0·6%, 95% CI -9·7 to 10·8) and 5 years (28 [22%] of 130 participants; difference 3·5%, -6·7% to 13·6) after treatment. Quality of life measurements and spirometry were similar between year 1, year 5, and the BT10+ visit. At the BT10+ study visit, pulmonary high-resolution CT scans from AIR2 participants treated with bronchial thermoplasty showed that 13 (13%) of 97 participants had bronchiectasis. When compared with baseline high-resolution CT scans, six (7%) of 89 participants treated with bronchial thermoplasty who did not have bronchiectasis at baseline had developed bronchiectasis after treatment (5 classified as mild, 1 classified as moderate). Participants treated with bronchial thermoplasty after the original study and participants in the sham or control group also had reductions in severe exacerbations at the BT10+ visit compared with baseline., Interpretation: Our findings suggest that efficacy of bronchial thermoplasty is sustained for 10 years or more, with an acceptable safety profile. Therefore, bronchial thermoplasty is a long-acting therapeutic option for patients with asthma that remains uncontrolled despite optimised medical treatment., Funding: Boston Scientific., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Carpobrotus species are harmful invaders to coastal areas throughout the world, particularly in Mediterranean habitats. Demographic models are ideally suited to identify and understand population processes and stages in the life cycle of the species that could be most effectively targeted with management. However, parameterizing these models has been limited by the difficulty in accessing the cliff-side locations where its populations are typically found, as well as accurately measuring the growth and spread of individuals, which form large, dense mats. This study uses small unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to collect demographic data and parameterize an Integral Projection Model of an Israeli Carpobrotus population. We validated our data set with ground targets of known size. Through the analysis of asymptotic growth rates and population sensitivities and elasticities, we demonstrate that the population at the study site is demographically stable, and that reducing the survival and growth of the largest individuals would have the greatest effect on reducing overall population growth rate. Our results provide a first evaluation of the demography of Carpobrotus, a species of conservation and economic concern, and provide the first structured population model of a representative of the Aizoaceae family, thus contributing to our global knowledge on plant population dynamics. In addition, we demonstrate the advantages of using drones for collecting demographic data in understudied habitats such as coastal ecosystems., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Urban tree cover provides benefits to human health and well-being, but previous studies suggest that tree cover is often inequitably distributed. Here, we use National Agriculture Imagery Program digital ortho photographs to survey the tree cover inequality for Census blocks in US large urbanized areas, home to 167 million people across 5,723 municipalities and other Census-designated places. We compared tree cover to summer land surface temperature, as measured using Landsat imagery. In 92% of the urbanized areas surveyed, low-income blocks have less tree cover than high-income blocks. On average, low-income blocks have 15.2% less tree cover and are 1.5⁰C hotter than high-income blocks. The greatest difference between low- and high-income blocks was found in urbanized areas in the Northeast of the United States, where low-income blocks in some urbanized areas have 30% less tree cover and are 4.0⁰C hotter. Even after controlling for population density and built-up intensity, the positive association between income and tree cover is significant, as is the positive association between proportion non-Hispanic white and tree cover. We estimate, after controlling for population density, that low-income blocks have 62 million fewer trees than high-income blocks, equal to a compensatory value of $56 billion ($1,349/person). An investment in tree planting and natural regeneration of $17.6 billion would be needed to close the tree cover disparity, benefitting 42 million people in low-income blocks., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

While public engagement with science activities traditionally inhabits physical environments (i.e., museum exhibits), as the Internet becomes more ubiquitous, new types of public engagement with science mediated through information technologies have emerged. Instead of having scientific findings filtered through traditional mediators, scientists have begun to take advantage of social media in order to communicate directly with the general public. This paper focuses on technology mediated public engagement with science in an online environment, specifically the sub-Reddit called "r/science", on a popular platform, Reddit, in which we investigated the factors contributing to user engagement and perceived effects of science communication from the users' perspectives. The survey instrument including user engagement scales, perceived effects of science communication, and demographics were distributed among 2000 participants in the r/science Ask Me Anything (AMA) series. We analyzed 146 survey responses using descriptive statistics and ordinal logistic regression. The findings indicated that the participants were generally engaged compared to ones in other studies that used the same user engagement scales and perceived positive effects on science communication, except when it came to building trust. Furthermore, we found that time spent on this particular platform appeared to be the most important factor when it came to positive perceived effects of r/science AMAs. This type of mediated public engagement has been insufficiently investigated, most particularly in terms of the examination of participants' perspectives. This void is addressed in this study. The findings from the study will also be informative to similar platforms that support mediated public engagement with science., Competing Interests: NO authors have competing interests.

Introduction: Returning to health facility for postnatal care (PNC) use after giving birth at health facility could reflect the health seeking behavior of mothers. However, such studies are rare though they are critically important to develop vigorous strategies to improve PNC service utilization. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the magnitude and factors associated with returning to health facilities for PNC among mothers who delivered in Ethiopian health facilities after they were discharged., Methods: This cross-sectional study used 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. A total of 2405mothers who gave birth in a health facility were included in this study. Multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model was fitted to estimate both independent (fixed) effects of the explanatory variables and community-level (random) effects on return for PNC utilization. Variable with p-value of ≤ 0.25 from unadjusted multilevel logistic regression were selected to develop three models and p-value of ≤0.05 was used to declare significance of the explanatory variables on the outcome variable in the final (adjusted) model. Analysis was done using IBM SPSS statistics version 21., Result: In this analysis, from the total 2405 participants, 14.3% ((95%CI: 12.1-16.8), (n = 344)) of them returned to health facilities for PNC use after they gave birth at a health facility. From the multilevel logistic regression analysis, being employed (AOR = 1.51, 95%CI: 1.04-2.19), receiving eight and above antenatal care visits (AOR = 2.90, 95%CI: 1.05-8.00), caesarean section delivery (AOR = 2.53, 95%CI: 1.40-4.58) and rural residence (AOR = 0.56, 95%CI: 0.36-0.88) were found significantly associated with return to health facilities for PNC use among women who gave birth at health facility., Conclusion: Facility-based PNC utilization among mothers who delivered at health facilities is low in Ethiopia. Both individual and community level variables were determined women to return to health facilities for PNC use. Thus, adopting context-specific strategies/policies could improve PNC utilization and should be paid a due focus., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Obesity-related cancer (ORC) is associated with higher amounts of body fat, which could increase the risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). A significant factor associated with CVD is metabolic syndrome (MetS), and MetS prevalence differs by race/ethnicity. The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence and predictors of ORCs by race/ethnicity among adults (>18) with MetS., Methods: This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study using data from the 1999-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). A chi-square test was performed to determine differences in ORC prevalence between non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB), and Hispanic participants with MetS. A multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate predictors (race, sex, income, insurance, education, marital status, and smoking status) of ORC among adults with MetS., Results: Of the 1,554 adults, the prevalence of ORC was 30.6% among NHWs, 51.3% in NHBs, and 54.1% in Hispanics (p = <0.001). Females were 6.27 times more likely to have an ORC compared to males (95% CI = 4.95-14.11). Compared to NHWs, NHBs were 2.1 times more likely to have an ORC (95% CI = 1.40-3.38); and Hispanics were 2.5 times more likely (95% CI = 1.39-4.77). For every 1-year unit increase in age, the odds of ORC increased by 3% (95% CI = 1.00-1.05)., Conclusions: Among NHANES participants with MetS, the prevalence of ORCs was significantly higher in NHBs and Hispanics, females, and older adults with MetS. Future studies, by race/ethnicity, are warranted on mortality risk of persons with MetS and ORC., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Several research efforts have evaluated the impact of various factors including a) socio-demographics, (b) health indicators, (c) mobility trends, and (d) health care infrastructure attributes on COVID-19 transmission and mortality rate. However, earlier research focused only on a subset of variable groups (predominantly one or two) that can contribute to the COVID-19 transmission/mortality rate. The current study effort is designed to remedy this by analyzing COVID-19 transmission/mortality rates considering a comprehensive set of factors in a unified framework., Methods and Findings: We study two per capita dependent variables: (1) daily COVID-19 transmission rates and (2) total COVID-19 mortality rates. The first variable is modeled using a linear mixed model while the later dimension is analyzed using a linear regression approach. The model results are augmented with a sensitivity analysis to predict the impact of mobility restrictions at a county level. Several county level factors including proportion of African-Americans, income inequality, health indicators associated with Asthma, Cancer, HIV and heart disease, percentage of stay at home individuals, testing infrastructure and Intensive Care Unit capacity impact transmission and/or mortality rates. From the policy analysis, we find that enforcing a stay at home order that can ensure a 50% stay at home rate can result in a potential reduction of about 33% in daily cases., Conclusions: The model framework developed can be employed by government agencies to evaluate the influence of reduced mobility on transmission rates at a county level while accommodating for various county specific factors. Based on our policy analysis, the study findings support a county level stay at home order for regions currently experiencing a surge in transmission. The model framework can also be employed to identify vulnerable counties that need to be prioritized based on health indicators for current support and/or preferential vaccination plans (when available)., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Primary brain and other central nervous system (CNS) cancers cause major burdens. In this study, we introduced a measure named the Quality of Care Index (QCI), which indirectly evaluates the quality of care given to patients with this group of cancers. Here we aimed to compare different geographic and socioeconomic patterns of CNS cancer care according to the novel measure introduced. In this regard, we acquired age-standardized primary epidemiologic measures were acquired from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 1990-2017. The primary measures were combined to make four secondary indices which all of them indirectly show the quality of care given to patients. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was utilized to calculate the essential component named QCI. Further analyses were made based on QCI to assess the quality of care globally, regionally, and nationally (with a scale of 0-100 which higher values represent better quality of care). For 2017, the global calculated QCI was 55.0. QCI showed a desirable condition in higher socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. Oppositely, low SDI quintile countries (7.7) had critically worse care quality. Western Pacific Region with the highest (76.9) and African Region with the lowest QCIs (9.9) were the two WHO regions extremes. Singapore was the country with the maximum QCI of 100, followed by Japan (99.9) and South Korea (98.9). In contrast, Swaziland (2.5), Lesotho (3.5), and Vanuatu (3.9) were countries with the worse condition. While the quality of care for most regions was desirable, regions with economic constraints showed to have poor quality of care and require enforcements toward this lethal diagnosis., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Human capital, broadly defined as the skills acquired through formal education, is acknowledged as one of the key drivers of economic growth and social development. However, its measurement for the working-age populations, on a global scale and over time, is still unsatisfactory. Most indicators either only consider the quantity dimension of education and disregard the actual skills or are demographically inconsistent by applying the skills of the young cohorts in school to represent the skills of the working-age population at the same time. In the case of rapidly expanding or changing school systems, this assumption is untenable. However, an increasing number of countries have started to assess the literacy skills of their adult populations by age and sex directly. Drawing on this literacy data, and by using demographic backprojection and statistical estimation techniques, we here present a demographically consistent indicator for adult literacy skills, the skills in literacy adjusted mean years of schooling (SLAMYS). The measure is given for the population aged 20 to 64 in 185 countries and for the period 1970 to 2015. Compared to the conventional mean years of schooling (MYS)-which has strongly increased for most countries over the past decades, and in particular among poor countries-the trends in SLAMYS exhibit a widening global skills gap between low- and high-performing countries., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Background: Children consume ultra-processed food (UPF) from a young age, but the proportional contribution of UPF to young children's total energy intakes has not been evaluated in developed countries., Objectives: To describe UPF intake and associations with demographic factors in young children from 12 to 60 months of age., Design: Cohort study comprising a secondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial. Demographic data were collected by questionnaire. At 12, 24, and 60 months of age validated food frequency questionnaires estimated percentage of energy intake from UPF (%kcal UPF)., Participants/setting: The 669 children were born in Dunedin, New Zealand, between May 2009 and December 2010., Main Outcome Measures: Mean percentage of energy intake from UPF at 12, 24, and 60 months of age, mean differences in %kcal UPF by demographic variables., Statistical Analyses Performed: Mixed effects regression models were used to estimate relationships between demographics and %kcal UPF. Multiple imputation methods were used to impute missing UPF data., Results: UPF contributed mean (95% confidence interval) 45% (44%, 47%), 42% (41%, 44%), and 51% (50%, 52%) of energy intake to the diets of children at 12, 24, and 60 months of age, respectively. Energy intake from UPF was moderately correlated between 24 and 60 months (r = 0.36). No demographic factors were associated with mean %kcal UPF across time points, except for maternal obesity predicting higher UPF intake at 12 months. Bread, yoghurt, crackers, whole-wheat breakfast cereal, sausages, and muesli bars were among the 10 foods making the greatest contribution to mean %kcal UPF intakes at all time points., Conclusions: UPF contribute a substantial proportion of energy to the diets of young children. A range of foods with varying nutritional profiles contribute to these high intakes., (Copyright © 2021 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The coronavirus disease pandemic has brought a new urgency for the development and deployment of web-based applications which complement, and offer alternatives to, traditional one-on-one consultations and pencil-and-paper (PaP) based assessments that currently dominate clinical research. We have recently developed a web-based application that can be used for the self-administered collection of patient demographics, self-rated health, depression and anxiety, and cognition as part of a single platform. In this study we report the findings from a study with 155 cognitively healthy older adults who received established PaP versions, as well as our novel computerized measures of self-rated health, depression and anxiety, and cognition. Moderate to high correlations were observed between PaP and web- based measures of self-rated health (r = 0.77), depression and anxiety (r = 0.72), and preclinical Alzheimer's disease cognitive composite (PACC) (r = .61). Test-retest correlations were variable with high correlations for a measure of processing speed and a measure of delayed episodic memory. Taken together, these data support the feasibility and validity of utilization of this novel web-based platform as a new alternative for collecting patient demographics and the assessment of self-rated health, depression and anxiety, and cognition in the elderly., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Since March 11, 2020 when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of infected cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected countries have climbed rapidly. To understand the impact of COVID-19 on public health, many studies have been conducted for various countries. To complement the available work, in this article we examine Canadian COVID-19 data for the period of March 18, 2020 to August 16, 2020 with the aim to forecast the dynamic trend in a short term., Method: We focus our attention on Canadian data and analyze the four provinces, Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, and Quebec, which have the most severe situations in Canada. To build predictive models and conduct prediction, we employ three models, smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models, neural network (NN) models, and susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models, to fit time series data of confirmed cases in the four provinces separately. In comparison, we also analyze the data of daily infections in two states of USA, Texas and New York state, for the period of March 18, 2020 to August 16, 2020. We emphasize that different models make different assumptions which are basically difficult to validate. Yet invoking different models allows us to examine the data from different angles, thus, helping reveal the underlying trajectory of the development of COVID-19 in Canada., Finding: The examinations of the data dated from March 18, 2020 to August 11, 2020 show that the STAR, NN, and SIR models may output different results, though the differences are small in some cases. Prediction over a short term period incurs smaller prediction variability than over a long term period, as expected. The NN method tends to outperform other two methods. All the methods forecast an upward trend in all the four Canadian provinces for the period of August 12, 2020 to August 23, 2020, though the degree varies from method to method. This research offers model-based insights into the pandemic evolvement in Canada., Competing Interests: NO authors have competing interests.

In light of the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, this study aims to examine the relationship between the availability of public health resources and the mortality rate of this disease. We conducted empirical analyses using linear regression, a time-varying effect model, and a regression discontinuity design to investigate the association of medical resources with the mortality rate of the COVID-19 patients in Hubei, China. The results showed that the numbers of hospital beds, healthcare system beds, and medical staff per confirmed cases all had significant negative effects on the coronavirus disease mortality rate. Furthermore, in the context of the severe pandemic currently being experienced worldwide, the present study summarized the experience and implications in pandemic prevention and control in Hubei province from the perspective of medical resource integration as follows: First, hospitals' internal medical resources were integrated, breaking interdepartmental barriers. Second, joint pandemic control was realized by integrating regional healthcare system resources. Finally, an external medical resource allocation system was developed., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The Tapanuli Orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis) is the most threatened great ape species in the world. It is restricted to an area of about 1,000 km2 of upland forest where fewer than 800 animals survive in three declining subpopulations. Through a historical ecology approach involving analysis of newspaper, journals, books and museum records from the early 1800s to 2009, we demonstrate that historically Pongo tapanuliensis inhabited a much larger area, and occurred across a much wider range of habitat types and at lower elevations than now. Its current Extent of Occurrence is 2.5% and 5.0% of the historical range in the 1890s and 1940s respectively. A combination of historical fragmentation of forest habitats, mostly for small-scale agriculture, and unsustainable hunting likely drove various populations to the south, east and west of the current population to extinction. This happened prior to the industrial-scale forest conversion that started in the 1970s. Our findings indicate how sensitive P. tapanuliensis is to the combined effects of habitat fragmentation and unsustainable take-off rates. Saving this species will require prevention of any further fragmentation and killings or other removal of animals from the remaining population. Without concerted action to achieve this, the remaining populations of P. tapanuliensis are doomed to become extinct within several orangutan generations., Competing Interests: Several of the authors are engaged in programs focused on the conservation of the Tapanuli orangutan. Erik Meijaard and Serge Wich have actively advocated against a hydropower project that is being developed in the current range of the Tapanuli orangutan but have not received funding for this. These activities could be perceived to bias our research. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Research in genetics relies heavily on voluntary contributions of personal data. We aimed to acquire insights into the differences between participants and refusers of participation in a Dutch population-based biobank. Accordingly, we assessed the demographic and prosocial intrapersonal characteristics of respondents who participated (n = 2615) or refused to participate (n = 404) in the Lifelines biobank and databank. Our results indicated that health-related values critically influence participation decisions. The participation threshold for Lifelines was determined by an absence of health-related values and of trust in government. Therefore, considering these factors in communication and recruitment strategies could enhance participation in biomedical research. No indications were found of a stronger general prosociality of participants or their trust in researchers beyond the context of biobanking. This emphasizes the contextual understanding of the decision of participation in biobanking. Our findings may contribute to improving recruitment strategies by incorporating relevant values and/or highlighting prosocial benefits. Moreover, they foreground the need to address trust issues in collaborations between data repositories and commercial companies. Future research should explore how prosocial intrapersonal characteristics drive participation and withdrawal decisions and relate to contextual attributes.

Objective: To identify the factors associated with perceived COVID-19 risk among people living in the US., Methods: A cross-sectional representative sample of 485 US residents was collected in mid-April 2020. Participants were asked about (a) perceptions of COVID-19 risk, (b) demographic factors known to be associated with increased COVID-19 risk, and (c) the impact of COVID-19 on different life domains. We used a three-step hierarchical linear regression model to assess the differential contribution of the factors listed above on perceived COVID-19 risk., Results: The final model accounted for 16% of variability in perceived risk, F(18,458) = 4.8, p < .001. Participants who were White reported twice as much perceived risk as participants of color (B = -2.1, 95% CI[-3.4,-0.8]. Higher perceived risk was observed among those who reported a negative impact of the pandemic on their sleep (B = 1.5, 95% CI[0.8,2.1]) or work (B = 0.7, 95%CI[0.1,1.3]). The number of cases per capita in their state of residence, age, or proximity to someone with a COVID-19 diagnosis were not found to meaningfully predict perceived risk., Conclusions: Perceived risk was not found to be associated with known demographic risk factors, except that the effect of race/ethnicity was in the opposite direction of existing evidence. Perception of COVID-19 risk was associated with the perceived personal impact of the pandemic., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The rate of cesarean delivery (C-section) has been increasing worldwide, including Bangladesh, and it has a negative impact on the mother and child's health. Our aim was to examine the association between C-section and childhood diseases and to identify the key factors associated with childhood diseases., Methods: We used four nationally representative data sets from multiple indicator cluster survey (MICS, 2012 and 2019) and Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS, 2011and 2014) and analyzed 25,270 mother-child pairs. We used the frequency of common childhood diseases (fever, short or rapid breaths, cough, blood in stools, and diarrhea) as our outcome variable and C-section as exposure variable. We included mother's age, place of residence, division, mother's education, wealth index, child age, child sex, and child size at birth as confounding variables. Negative binomial regression model was used to analyze the data., Results: In the BDHS data, the prevalence of C-section increased from 17.95% in 2011 to 23.33% in 2014. Also, in MICS, the prevalence almost doubled over an eight-year period (17.74% in 2012 to 35.41% in 2019). We did not observe any significant effect of C-section on childhood diseases in both surveys. Only in 2014 BDHS, we found that C-section increases the risk of childhood disease by 5% [Risk Ratio (RR): 1.05, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.17, p = 0.33]. However, the risk of childhood disease differed significantly in all survey years by division, child's age, and child's size at birth after adjusting for important confounding variables. For example, children living in Chittagong division had a higher risk [(2011 BDHS RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.38) and (2019 MICS RR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.35)] of having disease compared to Dhaka division. Maternal age, education, and wealth status showed significant differences with the outcome in some survey years., Conclusion: Our study shows that C-section in Bangladesh continued to increase over time, and we did not find significant association between C-section and early childhood diseases. High C-section rate has a greater impact on maternal and child health as well as the burden on the health care system. We recommend raising public awareness of the negative impact of unnecessary C-section in Bangladesh., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. A Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early acme around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, results concerning relaxation dynamics showed that the acme levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities as well as the individual behavior with respect to prevention measures. Analysis regarding different relaxing mitigation measures were provided to the Sonoran Health Ministry, as requested. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the acme occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Since the emergence of the recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its spread as a pandemic, media was teeming with misinformation that led to psychologic, social and economic consequences among the global public. Probing knowledge and anxiety regarding this novel infectious disease is necessary to identify gaps in knowledge and sources of misinformation which can help public health efforts to design and implement more focused interventional measures. The aim of this study was to evaluate the knowledge, attitude and effects of misinformation about COVID-19 on anxiety level among the general public residing in Jordan. This cross-sectional study was conducted using an online-based questionnaire that took place in April 2020, which targeted people residing in Jordan, aged 18 and above. The questionnaire included items on the following: demographic characteristics of the participants, knowledge about COVID-19, anxiety level and misconceptions regarding the origin of the pandemic. The total number of participants included in final analysis was 3150. The study population was predominantly females (76.0%), with mean age of 31 years. The overall knowledge of COVID-19 was satisfactory. Older age, males, lower monthly income and educational levels, smoking and history of chronic disease were associated with perceiving COVID-19 as a very dangerous disease. Variables that were associated with a higher anxiety level during the pandemic included: lower monthly income and educational level, residence outside the capital (Amman) and history of smoking. Misinformation about the origin of the pandemic (being part of a conspiracy, biologic warfare and the 5G networks role) was also associated with higher anxiety levels. Social media platforms, TV and news releases were the most common sources of information about the pandemic. The study showed the potential harmful effects of misinformation on the general public and emphasized the need to meticulously deliver timely and accurate information about the pandemic to lessen the health, social and psychological impact of the disease., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread 1-4 . During the initial phase of the outbreak, dissemination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was primarily determined by human mobility from Wuhan, China 5,6 . Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking 7 . In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics.

The coronavirus is currently extremely contagious for humankind, which is a zoonotic tropical disease. The pandemic is the largest in history, affecting almost the whole world. What makes the condition the worst of all is no specific effective treatment available. In this article, we present an extended and modified form of SIR and SEIR model, respectively. We begin by investigating a simple mathematical model that describes the pandemic. Then we apply different safety measures to control the pandemic situation. The mathematical model with and without control is solved by using homotopy perturbation method. Obtained solutions have been presented graphically. Finally, we develop another mathematical model, including quarantine and hospitalization.