Search

The Mediterranean Forecasting system Pilot Project has concluded its activities in 2001, achieving the following goals: 1. Realization of the first high-frequency (twice a month) Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) system for the Mediterranean Sea with XBT profiles for the upper thermocline (0-700 m) and 12 n.m. along track nominal resolution; 2. Realization of the first Mediterranean Multidisciplinary Moored Array (M3A) system for the Near-Real-Time (NRT) acquisition of physical and biochemical observations. The actual observations consists of: air-sea interaction parameters, upper thermocline (0-500 m) temperature, salinity, oxygen and currents, euphotic zone (0-100 m) chlorophyll, nutrients, Photosinthetically Available Radiation (PAR) and turbidity; 3. Analysis and NRT dissemination of high quality along track Sea Level Anomaly (SLA), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from satellite sensors to be assimilated into the forecasting model; 4. Assembly and implementation of a multivariate Reduced Order Optimal Interpolation scheme (ROOI) for assimilation in NRT of all available data, in particular, SLA and VOS-XBT profiles; 5. Demonstration of the practical feasibility of NRT ten day forecasts at the Mediterranean basin scale with resolution of 0.125° in latitude and longitude. The analysis or nowcast is done once a week; 6. Development and implementation of nested regional (5 km) and shelf (2-3 km) models to simulate the seasonal variability. Four regional and nine shelf models were implemented successfully, nested within the forecasting model. The implementation exercise was carried out in different region/shelf dynamical regimes and it was demonstrated that one-way nesting is practical and accurate; 7. Validation and calibration of a complex ecosystem model in data reach shelf areas, to prepare for forecasting in a future phase. The same ecosystem model is capable of reproducing the major features of the primary producers' carbon cycle in different regions and shelf areas. The model simulations were compared with the multidisciplinary M3A buoy observations and assimilation techniques were developed for the biochemical data. This paper overviews the methodological aspects of the research done, from the NRT observing system to the forecasting/modelling components and to the extensive validation/ calibration experiments carried out with regional/shelf and ecosystem models.

A complete operational oceanographic forecasting and observing system has been developed in Cyprus, covering the coastal and open deep sea areas around Cyprus and the Levantine Basin, and has been operational since early 2002. The system is called CYCOFOS-Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System-and integrates the main features, which are required in GOOS, EuroGOOS and MedGOOS design. CYCOFOS is a result of several years of oceanographic research activities carried out in the framework of EU projects such as the MFSPP, MAMA and MedGLOSS. The CYCOFOS at present consists of several modules that provide regular NRT oceanographic information, both to local and sub-regional end-users in the Levantine Basin. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 69 C 36 45 Cited By :2

Multivariate vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) are calculated for the entire Mediterranean Sea both from observations and model simulations, in order to find the optimal number of vertical modes to represent the upper thermocline vertical structure. For the first time, we show that the large-scale Mediterranean thermohaline vertical structure can be represented by a limited number of vertical multivariate EOFs, and that the "optimal set" can be selected on the basis of general principles. In particular, the EOFs are calculated for the combined temperature and salinity statistics, dividing the Mediterranean Sea into 9 regions and grouping the data seasonally. The criterion used to establish whether a reduced set of EOFs is optimal is based on the analysis of the root mean square residual error between the original data and the profiles reconstructed by the reduced set of EOFs. It was found that the number of EOFs needed to capture the variability contained in the original data changes with geographical region and seasons. In particular, winter data require a smaller number of modes (4–8, depending on the region) than the other seasons (8–9 in summer). Moreover, western Mediterranean regions require more modes than the eastern Mediterranean ones, but this result may depend on the data scarcity in the latter regions. The EOFs computed from the in situ data set are compared to those calculated using data obtained from a model simulation. The main results of this exercise are that the two groups of modes are not strictly comparable but their ability to reproduce observations is the same. Thus, they may be thought of as equivalent sets of basis functions, upon which to project the thermohaline variability of the basin.

The countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea have joined together in several multi-national initiatives to conduct long-term, integrated, operational oceanographic observations and modelling of this important region. A complete operational oceanographic forecasting and observing system has been developed in Cyprus, and has been operational since early 2002. The system is called the Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System (CYCOFOS) and is a component of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and its European (EuroGOOS) and Mediterranean (MedGOOS) modules. CYCOFOS is the result of several years of research activities all carried out within the framework of European Union-funded projects. At present, CYCOFOS consists of several operational modules, among them flow and offshore wave to forecasts, satellite remote sensing, coastal monitoring stations and end-user-derived applications. All of these operational modules provide regular near real-time information, both to local and sub-regional end users throughout the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin. 44 10 10 15 Cited By :2

The countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea have joined together in several multinational initiatives to conduct long-term, integrated, operational oceanographic observations and modelling of this important region. Some of these initiatives and the country members involved are discussed in this paper. Particular emphasis is given to long-term observing systems and modelling conducted in the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin and the region around the island of Cyprus. A complete operational oceanographic forecasting and observing system has been developed in Cyprus, and has been operational since early 2002. The system is called CYCOFOS-Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System-and is a component of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), and its European (EuroGOOS) and Mediterranean (MedGOOS) modules. CYCOFOS is the result of several years of research activities all carried out within the framework of European Union-funded projects including: (1) Mediterranean forecasting system, both pilot project and towards environmental predictions (MFSPP and MFSTEP), (2) Mediterranean network to Access and upgrade Monitoring and forecasts Activities in the region (MAMA), (3) European Sea level Service Research Infrastructure (ESEAS-RI), (4) Mediterranean network of Global sea Level Observing System (MedGLOSS), and (5) Marine Environment and Security in the European Areas (MERSEA strand 1). CYCOFOS at present consists of several operational modules, including flow and offshore waves forecasts, satellite remote sensing, coastal monitoring stations and end user-derived applications. All these operational modules provide regular near-real-time information, both to local and sub-regional end users in the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin. This paper discusses these as well as additional ocean observation stations and features soon to be added to CYCOFOS. 37 3 115 123 Cited By :12

This Jason-1 proposal deals with short-range (days) and medium-range (weeks to months) prediction of ocean dynamical variables (typically, currents and tracers). This is done by assimilation of altimetry and in-situ data and the definition of ad hoc diagnostics. Two major applications to existing forecasting systems are included in the proposal: the Mediterranean Forecasting System Pilot Project (an EU project), and the French Mercator project.

Marine environmental predictions involve the observation and modeling of physical, biogeochemical processes and parameters, fused by advanced data assimilation schemes that optimally merge the observational and numerical modeling information in order to produce forecasts. The result of such system should be interfaced with socio-economic models of sustainable development and management of marine resources. Fusing the deterministic dynamical information about the marine ecosystem with the socio-economic and political knowledge of the marine environment has not been tried yet but it is one of the outstanding challenges in integrated coastal management studies. This paper tries to show a scientific strategy to predict the physical and biochemical components toward marine environmental predictions, being aware that some considerations could be changed in view of the integration with socio-economic models and issues. Here we use prediction in total analogy with forecasting and thus as synonymous of deterministic prognosis of dynamical variables from a pre-defined initial state of the system.